FDA scientists map which Salinas Valley lettuce farms sit downstream of cattle, and being next to a herd is not the same as being downstream of it

The stories

16 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   FDA scientists map which Salinas Valley lettuce farms sit downstream of cattle, and being next to a herd is not the same as being downstream of it

   277

   leafy-green farms that sit downstream of cattle pastures, in the model

   they are joined to 58 pastures by 1,818 water links [1]

   2 of 13

   fields under one big pasture that actually lie downstream of it

   the same pasture connects by water to 56 farms [1]

   86.3%

   of the farms studied with no pasture upstream, in the model

   the model does not measure germs at all [1]

   What happened

   • US Food and Drug Administration scientists have mapped which Salinas Valley lettuce farms sit downstream of cattle. [1]
   • Their model found 277 leafy-green farms downstream of 58 cattle pastures. [1]
   • Being next to cows is not the same as being downstream of them, the column on the paper says. [1]
   • The paper went online on 6 November in the Journal of Food Protection. [1]
   • The team studied 14 small watersheds, each an area draining to one stream, covering 1,239 square kilometres. [1]
   • They took 48 rainstorms from 2018 to 2021 and estimated how much rain ran off the land. [1]
   • A computer then worked out which way water flows from every patch of ground. [1]
   • Each pasture counted for less the further its water had to travel. [1] Its weight fell about 63% over 10 kilometres of channel. [1]
   • The model found 1,818 links between a pasture and a farm. [1]
   • The median trip along the channel was 16.8 kilometres. [1] The longest was 82.6. [1]
   • Most farms, 86.3%, had no pasture upstream in the model. [1]
   • Every farm with a score peaked in one storm, on 27 to 29 January 2021. [1]
   • One pasture, with room for 1,170 cattle, overlapped 13 farm fields. [1] Only 2 of the 13 were downstream of it. [1]
   • That same pasture was connected by water to 56 farms. [1]
   • A setback is a rule that keeps crops a set distance from cattle. [1] The column says one measured from the fence can guard the wrong farm. [1]

   Who is involved

   • Mehran Niazi and colleagues scientists in the US food regulator's Human Foods Program; they built the runoff model
   • The US Food and Drug Administration the US agency that regulates food safety; it has investigated repeated lettuce outbreaks
   • The publisher of Food Safety News a lawyer who represented families in these outbreaks; his column is our account of the paper

   How it unfolded

   Leafy greens have sickened people again and again, the column recounts. [1] In 2019 the largest of 3 outbreaks traced to Salinas romaine lettuce sickened 167 people in 27 states. [1]

   After the 2020 outbreak, investigators found the strain in cattle droppings about 1.3 miles upslope of a farm. [1]

   1. 2019 3 outbreaks traced to Salinas romaine lettuce, the largest sickening 167 people [1]
   2. 2020 40 people sick in 19 states, and cattle droppings found upslope of a farm [1]
   3. 6 Nov 2026 the runoff paper goes online [1]

   Why it matters

   The map can tell regulators which farms to look at, and which to leave alone. [1]

   How it works

   Hydrologists call this connectivity: whether water really travels from one place to another. [1]

   Water follows slopes and channels. [1] So a farm 16.8 kilometres down a creek can be exposed while the field beside the cows is not. [1]

   Seen it before

   Water leaking from a flat drips into the flat below, not the one next door.

   The truth

   • What is really going on FDA scientists have shown which Salinas Valley farms water from cattle pastures can reach, but they have not shown germs in that water.
   • The paper does not measure germs, only where runoff could go. [1] It cannot say which farm is dangerous. [1]
   • This account comes from a column by Food Safety News's publisher, a lawyer who represented sick families in these outbreaks. [1]
   • In it he says the paper makes the case for a petition he is drafting. [1]
   • Who gains Growers with no pasture upstream — The model puts them in the group regulators can leave alone, which the column calls good news for those farms. [1]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Why lettuce outbreaks come in autumn when the heaviest runoff comes in winter.

     The model maps runoff only, and the link between the two seasons is untested. [1]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Which Salinas farms sit below which cattle.

     The paper's published map leaves out exact livestock locations so it does not identify individual operations. [1]

   Good news

   • A US model of the Salinas Valley found 86.3% of the farms it studied have no cattle pasture upstream of them.

   What comes next

   The authors say the work is meant to inform the regulator's California Longitudinal Study. [1]

1. 02

   Egypt orders a study of food reserves

   What happened

   • Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah El Sisi, ordered a new emergency agency to study strategic reserves, a Saturday statement said. [17]
   • Egypt, with 110 million people, is watching its stocks of basic foods, mainly wheat flour, security sources told The National. [17]
   • Last month Egypt's government said it held enough essential foods to last 6 months. [17]
   • Around then, state buyer Future of Egypt bought 5 cargoes of wheat, among its largest purchases in 6 months. [17]

   Who is involved

   The National Authority for the Management of Crises and Emergencies is led by the armed forces' chief of staff. [17]

   • Crisis agency led by the chief of staff

   Why it matters

   The order comes amid fears that war between Iran and the US could resume and disrupt supply chains. [17]

   How it works

   Economists call food held back for a crisis a buffer stock: a national store for bad times.

   A store of essential foods lasting 6 months buys Egypt time if supply chains are disrupted. [17]

   Seen it before

   A family that keeps rice in the cupboard still eats if the shop shuts for a week.

   The truth

   • The order is only to study reserves, and the report gives no amount or date. [17]
2. 03

   Colombia's Caribbean banana exports fall 32%

   What happened

   • Banana exports from Colombia's Caribbean coast fell 32% to $122m between July and September. [2]
   • In September alone, shipments fell 42% from a year before. [2] Earnings nearly halved to $40m from $70m. [2]
   • A growers' group in Magdalena and La Guajira gave those figures, reported by the trade site Fruitnet. [2]
   • High winds hit parts of Colombia, and heavy rain hit Peru and Ecuador, during this year's strong El Nino. [2]
   • Supermarket banana prices have stayed the same for almost 40 years, the Guardian reports. [2] Fertiliser, fuel and labour have all cost more. [2]

   Who is involved

   Fairtrade, an ethical trade body, expects this El Nino to hit growers harder than the 2023-24 one. [2]

   • Growers in Magdalena and La Guajira reported the fall

   Why it matters

   A worker at a Colombian banana farm told Fairtrade: "our wages will decrease". [2]

   How it works

   Economists call a seller like this a price taker: someone who must accept the price buyers set.

   Research found prices paid to suppliers in 2026 did not cover basic production costs for 66.7% of them. [2]

   Seen it before

   A stall holder who must match the market price cannot charge more when her apples cost her more.

   The truth

   • The 32% and 42% come from growers who are asking for higher prices. [2] They say currency moves made it worse. [2]
   • Who pays Colombian banana workers — A worker told Fairtrade the climate losses will mean lower wages. [2]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much of the banana export fall is weather and how much is money.

     The Colombian growers' group blames both climate losses and currency moves and gives no split. [2]

3. 04

   Fertiliser and diesel squeeze farm budgets

   What happened

   • Fertiliser prices kept climbing in the US. [7] Seven of 8 major crop nutrients rose from a month before, an analyst told clients on Sunday. [7]
   • All 8 of those nutrients cost more than a year ago. [7]
   • The analyst, Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag, says US nitrogen follows the world market. [7] That means Middle East prices, European gas and Chinese export policy. [7]
   • Key nitrogen fertilisers stay sharply above a year ago, even with US natural gas cheaper. [7] Gas is a key fertiliser ingredient. [7]
   • Kelly Garrett, an Iowa farmer who also runs a trucking firm, says diesel has doubled in a year. [8]
   • US fuel prices are edging slightly down but remain historically high. [7]

   Why it matters

   Garrett says seed and fertiliser for 2027 will cost more because of fuel. [8]

   How it works

   Farm economists call these input costs: what a farm pays before it has anything to sell. [7]

   Trucks haul everything a farm buys, Garrett says. [8] So a diesel rise reaches him in every bill, not only the one for his tractor. [8]

   Seen it before

   A school trip costs more when the coach firm pays more for fuel, even if nothing else changes.

   The truth

   • The doubling is one farmer's own account, and the report gives no price figures for it. [8]
4. 05

   Heat cuts Punjab's fruit, a UN report says

   What happened

   • Pakistan's Dawn newspaper on 9 November went back to an earlier UN report on heat and Punjab's farms. [3]
   • In Punjab's high-rainfall zones, fruit productivity has fallen by as much as 50%, the report found. [3]
   • Cattle and buffalo give less milk under heat stress. [3] Sheep and goats face more outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, the report says. [3]
   • Vegetables and dairy spoil faster in extreme heat. [3] That cuts what is on sale and pushes up market prices. [3]
   • Women in Punjab do much of the harvesting and water carrying, so they spend longer in the heat. [3]

   Who is involved

   Extreme Heat and Agriculture is a 2026 joint report by the FAO and WMO, UN food and weather agencies. [16]

   • FAO UN food agency
   • WMO UN weather agency
   • Women farm workers longer in the heat

   Why it matters

   Pregnant and nursing women are hit hardest as household food runs short, the report says. [3]

   How it works

   Food-security analysts call this a double burden: a family grows less and earns less at the same time. [3]

   Heat cuts the crop a family eats. [3] It also cuts the income the family uses to buy food at market. [3]

   Seen it before

   A baker whose oven breaks loses her own bread and the money to buy some.

   The truth

   • The 50% figure is for high-rainfall zones, and Dawn gives no number for the whole province. [3]
   • Who pays Women in Punjab's farming households — The report says they eat less so others can eat, which adds to the harm heat does them. [3]
5. 06

   Beef levy's methane lesson is taken down

   What happened

   • A methane lesson written for US teenagers was removed after ranchers objected, the Guardian reported on 8 November. [4]
   • "We did take it down", education director Rick Henningfeld told CattleCon, the beef industry's annual convention, in February. [4]
   • It has not returned. [4] A new lesson on cattle digestion, published in July, does not mention methane or climate. [4]
   • A rancher's blog started the backlash. [4] A South Dakota farmer, Brett Kenzy, called the lesson a "slap in the face". [4]
   • Methane from living sources keeps about 0.3C of global warming going, climate scientist Carl-Friedrich Schleussner told the Guardian. [4]

   Who is involved

   The American Farm Bureau Foundation for Agriculture produces a free science curriculum. [4] Around 1.2m students in more than 100 school districts use it. [4]

   How it unfolded

   1. Late last year the lesson is announced
   2. Within months it is taken down

   Why it matters

   Climate scientist Drew Shindell called it "a shame the ranchers would block students from learning". [4]

   How it works

   Agricultural economists call this a checkoff: a compulsory fee on each sale that pays for shared promotion. [4]

   The money comes from a levy on cattle sales. [4] When some ranchers objected, the foundation took the lesson down. [4]

   Seen it before

   Parents paying for a school trip can usually get a say in where it goes.

   The truth

   • The lesson put livestock at about 2% of methane from humans. [4] Shindell says the true figure is a little over 30%. [4]
   • Who gains Ranchers who opposed the methane lesson — The lesson came down, and the July lesson on cattle digestion does not mention methane. [4]
   • Who pays Students in the 100 school districts using the curriculum — The methane lesson written for them was withdrawn and has not returned. [4]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the beef levy's methane lesson comes back.

     The foundation says a longer version is coming, but it names no date and no researchers. [4]

6. 07

   China keeps buying US soybeans before a USDA report

   What happened

   • China bought 136,000 tons of US soybeans on 6 November, the farm-market site Brownfield reported. [9]
   • It was the fifth business day out of the last 6 with an announced sale. [9]
   • Soybeans still ended the week with steep losses. [9]
   • Traders are watching the end of the US harvest and planting in Argentina and Brazil. [9]
   • The US farm department recently corrected some of its September corn data. [7]

   How it unfolded

   1. 10 November US figures
   2. 13 November Brazil's figures

   Why it matters

   Chinese demand for other US farm goods is expected to depend on changes to tariff policy. [9]

   What comes next

   The US farm department's next supply and demand numbers come out on 10 November. [9] Brazil's crop agency, CONAB, follows on 13 November. [9]

7. 08

   Formula maker ByHeart stops making its products

   What happened

   • ByHeart, a baby formula maker, has "discontinued" making its products after an outbreak of infant botulism. [10]
   • The infant botulism outbreak sickened 48 babies in 17 states. [10]
   • In late October it said it would buy the infant formula arm of Perrigo. [10] Perrigo, based in Dublin, makes formula sold under shops' own labels. [10]
   • Rosa DeLauro, a Democratic member of the US Congress, raised concerns this week about the deal. [10]

   Who is involved

   ByHeart's founders started a new company, MeridianMade, earlier this year. [10]

   • MeridianMade new company of ByHeart's founders
   • Rosa DeLauro member of the US Congress

   Why it matters

   Families buying shops' own-label formula could end up buying from the founders of the firm linked to the outbreak. [10]

   The truth

   • The report does not say what DeLauro's concerns are, only that she vows more investigation. [10]
8. 09

   Conservation farming beats donor choice in Zambia

   What happened

   • A study of 545 smallholder households in eastern Zambia found who pays for aid matters less than how they farm. [6]
   • Conservation agriculture households ate a wider range of foods. [6]
   • Chinese-backed projects tied farmers to cotton, and those households grew 2.98 crops on average. [6] Norwegian-backed ones grew 3.63. [6]
   • About half the households reported not having enough food in the past 12 months. [6]

   Who is involved

   Researchers at the University of Zambia compared Norwegian-backed and Chinese-backed farm projects. [6]

   Why it matters

   Women-headed households had lower dietary diversity and fewer assets such as livestock. [6]

   How it works

   Agronomists call it conservation agriculture: little digging, permanent soil cover and rotating crops. [6]

   Where farmers got help to prepare land early, they harvested 9 days before others. [6] That helps them reach the end of the hungry months. [6]

   Seen it before

   Packing lunch the night before means a rushed morning still ends with a meal.

   The truth

   • The findings come from a survey of 2 districts, Chipata and Mambwe, in eastern Zambia. [6]
   • Who pays Women-headed households in eastern Zambia — Land rules keep them from fertile plots, and the study found they had the narrower diets. [6]

   Good news

   • Farmers in eastern Zambia who got help preparing land early brought in their harvest 9 days before others, and conservation-farm households ate a wider range of foods.
9. 10

   Zimbabwe's free inputs leave incomes behind

   What happened

   • A study of 408 households in Zimbabwe's Mashonaland East province found free seed and fertiliser did not raise incomes. [5]
   • Farmers must make plots that use little digging, cover soil and rotate with legumes. [5]
   • Those in the programme had more varied ways of earning a living. [5] But their incomes were no higher, and if anything lower. [5]
   • Most households had added more activities than paid off. [5] Those were mostly petty trading and casual farm labour. [5]

   Who is involved

   The Pfumvudza programme, which began in 2020-21, gives farmers free maize seed, fertiliser and lime. [5]

   Why it matters

   The authors say the extra work may crowd out cash crops such as tobacco. [5]

   How it works

   Agricultural economists call it livelihood diversification: earning from several activities at once. [5]

   Income rises as a household adds activities, up to a point. [5] Past that, labour and money run too thin. [5]

   Seen it before

   A student who joins too many clubs does each of them badly.

   The truth

   • The study covers 408 households in one province, surveyed between May and July 2024. [5]
   • Who gains Zimbabwean households with irrigation, credit or schooling — Those assets are what let extra activities pay, and the better-off already hold them. [5]
10. 11

    Pumpkin patch outbreak ends with no source found

    What happened

    • A California county has closed its investigation into E. coli at Brookshire Farms, a pumpkin patch in San Luis Obispo. [11]
    • Fifteen people are in the outbreak, and 5 were confirmed by a lab. [11]
    • Three children developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, a complication that can cause kidney failure, the county earlier reported. [11]
    • Testing of water, food and other farm samples did not find this strain of E. coli. [11]
    • The county said samples were limited by delays and too many possible sources. [11]

    Why it matters

    The owners reopened the patch about 5 hours before the county said the investigation was over. [11]

    How it works

    Epidemiologists call this a shared exposure: one thing all the sick people met. [11]

    All 5 confirmed patients visited on 17 or 18 October. [11] Genetic tests matched 3 of them to each other, which points to one source. [11]

    Seen it before

    When a whole class falls ill after one school lunch, the lunch is the first suspect.

    The truth

    • What is really going on Fifteen people fell ill at a California pumpkin patch and investigators never found the source. [1][11]
    • The county named edible corn cups, pumpkins, hay and non-potable water as possible routes. [11] It has confirmed none of them. [11]
    • Nobody knows yet

      What made people sick at Brookshire Farms.

      No farm sample matched the outbreak strain and the county plans no more testing. [11]

11. 12

    A sprout outbreak ends, its seed supplier unnamed

    What happened

    • US health agencies have declared an end to a Salmonella outbreak linked to broccoli sprouts and microgreens. [10]
    • At least 34 people were infected in 6 states. [10]
    • A contaminated seed lot imported from New Zealand caused it. [10]
    • Evergreen Fresh Sprouts recalled the sprouts, and other firms recalled sprouting seeds. [10]

    Why it matters

    A single imported seed lot sickened people in 6 states, and the recalls went beyond one sprout firm. [10]

    How it works

    Food safety investigators call this traceback: following an illness back along the chain to its start.

    The investigators followed the cases back through the sprouts to one seed lot from New Zealand. [10]

    Seen it before

    A class bug traced back to one shared lunchbox stops once that lunchbox goes.

    The truth

    • The federal agencies did not name the seed supplier. [10]
    • Nobody knows yet

      Who sold the New Zealand seed lot behind the sprout outbreak.

      The US federal agencies did not name the seed supplier. [10]

    Good news

    • The US health agencies have declared this outbreak over. [10]
12. 13

    Salsa maker warned over Listeria on surfaces

    What happened

    • The US food regulator warned La Cabana Food Distributing, a California salsa maker, after finding Listeria in its plant. [12]
    • Inspectors also found problems with its food safety plan and supplier controls. [12]
    • The warning letter is dated 29 July 2026. [12] It followed an inspection running from 12 November to 5 December 2025. [12]
    • The agency said the cooked salsa and uncooked sauces may have been made in insanitary conditions. [12]

    How it unfolded

    1. December 2025 the inspection ends
    2. July 2026 the warning letter

    Why it matters

    Listeria can make food dangerous without changing how it looks or tastes. [13]

    How it works

    US regulators call this a warning letter: a formal notice giving a company 15 days to respond. [12]

    Letters often come after a company has had months or years to fix problems. [12] Some are posted publicly only weeks or months later. [12]

    Seen it before

    A school report sent in summer describes how you were doing back in the winter.

    The truth

    • Parts of warning letters are often blacked out, so the public version may not be the whole story. [12]
13. 14

    Listeria recall reaches workplace sandwiches

    What happened

    • Fresh & Ready Foods has recalled sausage, egg and cheese biscuit sandwiches over a Listeria risk. [13]
    • The sandwiches went to break rooms, vending machines and cafeterias in Oregon and Washington. [13]
    • They were delivered between 25 October and 4 November. [13]
    • The recall follows one by CH Guenther & Son, the firm that made the biscuit. [13]
    • No illnesses have been reported so far. [13]

    How it unfolded

    1. 25 October deliveries start
    2. 4 November deliveries end

    Why it matters

    Listeria is most dangerous for pregnant women, older people, young children and people with weak immune systems. [13]

    How it works

    Doctors call the gap between eating food and falling ill the incubation period.

    Listeria symptoms can take up to 70 days to appear. [13] So people who ate one are told to watch for illness for weeks. [13]

    Seen it before

    A cold caught at a party can show up days after anyone remembers the party.

14. 15

    EU agencies open a joint look at Shamonda

    What happened

    • The EU's disease agency and its food safety agency have begun a joint risk assessment of Shamonda virus. [14]
    • Shamonda is a livestock virus first found in Nigeria in the 1960s. [14]
    • It was first detected in European farm animals in summer 2026. [14]
    • It has since been detected in 12 European countries. [14]

    Who is involved

    • ECDC EU disease agency
    • EFSA EU food safety agency

    How it unfolded

    In early October, the first human case was found, in a patient who had died of another serious illness. [14]

    1. 1960s found in Nigeria
    2. Summer 2026 in European farm animals

    Why it matters

    Cattle farmers there face a virus that lowers milk output and is not a notifiable disease in the EU. [14]

    How it works

    Doctors call a disease that passes from animals to people a zoonosis.

    One infected person does not show a virus spreads easily between people, the ECDC says. [14] Each case is judged on the evidence. [14]

    Seen it before

    One classmate catching a cold from a pet does not mean the class will catch it.

    The truth

    • Investigators have not said whether the virus caused or contributed to that patient's death. [14]

1. 16

   Grass stops soil washing off Sussex maize fields

   What happened

   • Maize growers in Sussex stopped 100t of soil entering rivers by growing grass between their rows, a water company says. [15]
   • South East Water ran the trials with the Maize Growers Association between 2020 and 2024. [15]
   • Wide maize rows leave bare soil open to the rain. [15] Late harvests can leave fields exposed all winter. [15]
   • Soil in the water makes it cloudy, so treatment works have to do more. [15]
   • The company paid growers grants of 125 to 185 pounds a hectare each year. [15]
   • Maize covered 274,000ha of the UK in 2024, up from 8,000ha in 1973. [15]

   How it unfolded

   1. 2020 the trials start
   2. 2024 the trials end

   Why it matters

   River water runs clearer when soil stays on the fields, and that eases the work of treatment plants. [15]

   How it works

   Water firms call this catchment management: paying for changes on farms to keep rivers clean. [15]

   Grass between the rows holds the soil in place. [15] Less of it then washes down into water supplies. [15]

   Seen it before

   Laying a mat at the door keeps mud from being walked all through the house.

   Why the farm beside the cattle can be safer than one ten miles away

   Hydrologists call it connectivity: what reaches a field depends on where the water actually flows, however near or far the cattle stand.

   The twist

   How close a field stands to cattle tells you little, because the water that could carry germs goes where the ground sends it.

   The picture

   2 of 13

   fields under one pasture that lie downstream of it

   Step by step

   1. 1 Rain falls on a cattle pasture
   2. 2 Water runs down the slope into channels
   3. 3 Each channel reaches some fields and misses others
   4. 4 Only the fields on that route get the runoff

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • The Sussex maize trials

     South East Water pays growers because soil on bare maize rows runs downhill into its rivers and reservoirs, so the farm's slope above the water decides who gets paid.

   Where you've seen this

   Flood maps

   two houses at the same distance from a river can differ, because one sits on the path the water takes

   Old fuel tanks and wells

   a leak moves with the groundwater, so the well it reaches may not be the nearest one

   A leak in a block of flats

   the flat below gets wet and the flat next door stays dry

   The catch

   Water is only one route: this map leaves out wind, dust, animals and wells, and it cannot show that a germ was ever in the water.

   And the whole of it

   The grower at the bottom of the valley cannot see the pasture ten miles up the creek. The rancher on that pasture cannot see the field the rain reaches. Whoever eats the salad sees neither the pasture nor the creek.

   The truth

   • The 100t figure comes from analysis reported by South East Water, the company that funded the scheme. [15]
   • Who gains South East Water — Its grants of 125 to 185 pounds a hectare put less soil in the water its treatment works must clean. [15]

   Good news

   • Sussex growers kept 100t of soil out of local rivers over the 4-year trial. [15]