Daylila

Gaming · Friday, 21 August 2026

01 · Briefing · what happened

Consoles got more expensive because AI wanted the same chips

Gaming 7 min 24 sources

US console sales had their worst July since the pandemic, and physical game sales hit a 31-year low. The cause is a memory shortage the games industry did not create and cannot fix.

$85m

US physical game sales in July

lowest month since counting began in 1995

-39%

console units sold

while the average price rose 16% to $542

5x

rise in Xbox storage part costs

against what Microsoft paid two years earlier

39m

consoles Ampere says go unsold

if the next generation launches at $1,000, not $700

At a glance

  • US games spending fell 10% in July to $4.5 billion, with console hardware down 29% to $282 million.
  • Console unit sales fell 39% while the average price rose 16% to $542.
  • The cause is a memory shortage: AI data centres are buying the same chips consoles need.
  • Xbox says its storage parts now cost more than five times what they did two years ago, and it cannot build enough consoles.
  • Sony has no launch date for the PlayStation 6; Ampere forecasts 39 million fewer next-gen consoles if they cost $1,000 instead of $700.
  • Physical game sales hit $85 million, the lowest month since counting began in 1995.
  • Xbox and EA stopped giving Circana their digital sales figures, so the public scoreboard is going dark as discs disappear.
  • Riot ended active work on 2XKO under a year after launch; Sony stripped the always-online layer from its Horizon spin-off.

Forces in play

Chip competition High

AI data centres are buying the memory consoles need, and can pay far more per chip than a games machine can

Hardware prices High

the PS5 digital edition went from $400 to $600, and the Switch 2 rises again on 1 September

Player spending Easing

July spending fell 10% to $4.5bn; subscriptions were the only category that grew

Big always-online bets Easing

Riot ended work on 2XKO and Sony pulled the always-online layer out of its Horizon game

Public sales data Building

Xbox and EA stopped sharing digital figures with Circana, so what sells is getting harder to see

In play Circana — counts the US market; just lost two of its data sources Microsoft / Xbox — cannot build enough consoles, while its parent builds AI data centres Sony — no PS6 date, ends disc production in 2028, reworked its Horizon spin-off Ampere Analysis — forecast 39 million lost console sales at a $1,000 price Riot Games — ended active work on 2XKO and refunded player spending

How it unfolded

  1. 2020 PS5 digital edition launches at $400
  2. Feb 2026 Xbox storage parts already cost twice what they did in autumn 2025
  3. Jul 2026 console spending falls to $282m, physical software to $85m
  4. 18 Aug Ampere forecasts 39 million lost sales at $1,000; Xbox workers rally in nine cities
  5. 20 Aug Riot ends active work on 2XKO; Circana confirms Xbox has left its digital panel
  6. 1 Sep Switch 2 price rises again

Where this points

Watch whether Sony and Microsoft subsidise the next generation harder or let it launch dear; a $1,000 machine is the number that decides how big the audience gets.

Full briefing

The worst July in years, and the cause sits outside the industry

US spending on games, hardware and accessories fell 10% year-on-year in July, to $4.5 billion [1]. Hardware took the worst of it. Spending on consoles dropped 29% to $282 million, the lowest July total since 2020, when the pandemic emptied shop shelves [3].

Unit sales fell 39%. The average price of a new console rose 16%, to $542 [1]. Both things at once is the tell: fewer machines, each one dearer.

The cause is a shortage of memory chips, and the buyers driving it are not making games. Companies building AI data centres are buying up the same RAM and storage that goes into consoles and gaming PCs [4]. Console makers have raised prices to cover it.

Xbox CEO Asha Sharma put a number on the squeeze. When she joined in February 2026, Microsoft was paying more than twice what it paid for console storage parts in autumn 2025. Costs then doubled again, and she expects another rise for the 2026 holiday season, taking the total past five times the price of two years earlier [5].

“We are currently unable to make as many consoles as players want to buy,” Sharma said [5]. The irony is not subtle: Microsoft, Xbox’s own parent company, is one of the largest builders of AI data centres [5].

The price ladder is running backwards

For thirty years, consoles got cheaper as they aged. Factories got better at making them, and the savings were passed on as price cuts, which widened the audience [5]. That formula has stopped.

The PlayStation 5 digital edition launched at $400 in 2020 and now costs $600 [5]. Xbox Series consoles have gone up by more than $200 [5]. The Switch 2 takes a $50 rise on 1 September [1]. Even the original Switch, released in 2017, costs $340 today against $300 at launch [5].

Sony has not set a launch date for the PlayStation 6. Chief executive Hiroki Totoki blamed the component shortage directly, telling the Wall Street Journal the company must act “otherwise, we cannot survive in this landscape” [6].

Ampere Analysis put a price on getting the next generation wrong. In an 18 August report, senior research director Piers Harding-Rolls modelled the next generation at two prices [7]. At $1,000 rather than $700, he forecasts roughly 39 million fewer PlayStation 6 and Xbox Project Helix consoles over five years [7]. That is an audience 38% smaller.

The report also predicts about 12% less player spending over the generation’s first three years, around $3.4 billion. Much of that, Ampere says, gets absorbed by AI-driven component prices rather than reaching the people who make and sell games [7].

Physical games are close to finished

New physical game sales in the US fell to $85 million in July, the lowest monthly total since the tracking firm Circana began counting in 1995 [1][2].

The split is lopsided. Nintendo platforms took 63% of physical spending this year, PlayStation 32%, and Xbox just over 4% [8]. Only seven PlayStation games have sold more than 100,000 physical copies in the US this year, and in the week ending 11 July only two passed 10,000 [2].

Sony stops producing discs for new PlayStation games in January 2028 [2]. Its own financials show an 82% digital rate for full-game software across PS4 and PS5 [2]. The UK’s Entertainment and Retail Association called the decision “a triumph of corporate convenience over consumer choice” [2].

The numbers themselves are going dark

Circana’s monthly report is the closest thing the US games market has to a public scoreboard. It works because publishers volunteer their digital sales figures. As of July, Xbox is no longer part of that panel, and EA has dropped out too, timed to its going private [9].

That matters more than it sounds. Physical sales are counted at the till, whether or not a publisher wants them counted. Digital sales exist only where the storefront owner or the publisher chooses to share them [9]. Xbox leaving removes visibility on Call of Duty, among others, and on any publisher whose numbers used to reach Circana through the Xbox store [9].

The remaining panel is Bandai Namco, Capcom, Crystal Dynamics, Disney Interactive Studios, Eidos, Konami, Plaion, Sega, Sony, Square Enix, Take-Two and Warner Bros [9]. With PlayStation ending discs in 2028, the public record increasingly depends on companies agreeing to keep it.

Always-online bets keep retreating

Riot Games will stop active development on its free-to-play fighting game 2XKO at the end of 2026, less than a year after its January console launch [10][11]. Riot said it had not seen “enough players stick with the game to get to a path toward sustainability” [10]. The game costs substantially more to run than it brings in, the company said [10].

Riot is unlocking every character, bundling most cosmetic items, and refunding money spent in the game on or before 20 August [11]. Servers stay on.

Bloomberg reported the same week that Sony’s Guerrilla Games is stripping the always-online component out of Horizon Hunters Gathering after poor playtest feedback [12][13]. It becomes a smaller multiplayer game with a story mode [13]. Staff were told they have until December to impress executives, and many will move to another project also under review at year end [13]. Almost all of Guerrilla has worked on the game for years [13].

Elsewhere: Highguard shut permanently less than two months after launch, Remedy wound down major updates to FBC: Firebreak, and Epic cut staff in March after a fall in Fortnite engagement [10]. Konami takes Castlevania: Grimoire of Souls offline on 3 September [14].

Bain & Company’s annual gaming report, drawn from a survey of more than 5,300 players, suggests why the safe bets keep failing. Two-thirds of players prefer familiar games or sequels, and only one in five actively seek new titles [15]. Of 100 games released since 2023, Bain found 83% of those aimed at a specific type of player succeeded commercially, against 50% of unfocused ones [15].

Who is carrying it

Xbox developers held rallies in nine cities across the US and Canada on 18 August, backed by the Bethesda Game Studios union and the Communications Workers of America [16]. Microsoft has cut roughly 1,600 games jobs, with a similar number planned before mid-2027 [16].

Bethesda lead character artist Alex Nguyen told Kotaku that cuts were rare under previous ownership. “We didn’t have layoffs before,” he said; now they come yearly [16]. Technical producer Nathan Hahn said the union submitted a proposal in February on how to run a fair reduction in force [16]. The company did not respond for four months, then cut [16].

At EA, workers are still absorbing the $55 billion take-private led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, with Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners and Silver Lake [17]. One worker told Game Developer they would leave if they could, but “the jobs aren’t there, and I have bills to pay” [17]. Emmanuel Rosier, a former senior EA manager now at Newzoo, expects the new owners to focus on sports and esports. He called BioWare’s games “the biggest question mark” [18].

Money is still moving, just to smaller rooms

The venture firm Makers Fund closed a fourth fund of $250 million this week, taking it to $1.5 billion under management. It says it has returned 3.6 times invested capital, helped by an early stake in Turkish mobile developer Dream Games [19].

Smaller bets are landing too. Human: Fall Flat veterans Sitara Shefta and Will Dudley launched Pretty Cool Games with funding from Arknights developer Hypergryph. Shefta said raising money is hard right now, “but that doesn’t mean the demand for fresh new games has reduced” [20].

Harvey Smith, whose Arkane Austin was closed by Microsoft in May 2024 with 96 developers out of work, has started Black Pony Immersive with former colleague Ben Horne. “Ben and I chose the worst time in history,” Smith said [21]. Three Epic Games veterans are building a rival engine, Immens, aimed at small teams; Unity and Unreal were used for roughly 70% of Steam releases in 2025 [22].

And the small numbers still work. The Mesoamerican fantasy game Arco passed 100,000 sales and broke even, two years after launch [23]. Soul’s Remnant, a 2D online role-playing game built largely by one developer over eight years, came out free on Steam this month, with guilds, player-run shops and no pay-to-win [24].

02 · Lesson · why it matters

You do not set the price of what you are made of

The price of a part is set by the most profitable thing anyone can make from it - rarely the thing you are making.

How it works

  1. Two industries need the same chips
  2. The factory sells to whoever pays most per chip
  3. A rented AI server earns far more per chip than a console does
  4. So the console maker is outbid on the thing it is made of
  5. It can raise its price, eat the cost, or build fewer machines
  6. Whichever it picks, the money moves to the chip maker

The twist

A part's price is set by the most profitable thing anyone can build from it, and that is rarely the thing you are building.

Where you've seen this

Cooking oil

when it can be burned as fuel, the price of a chip supper is set by the fuel market

City housing

a flat's rent is set by what the highest-paid tenant can pay, not by what a nurse earns

Farmland

land near a solar plant is priced by electricity, not by what the crop is worth

Timber

a builder competes with a furniture maker and a paper mill for the same tree

The catch

Memory prices are cyclical and have crashed before, and a shortage is a convenient reason for price rises a company may have wanted anyway.

Full lesson

The same chip, two buyers

Xbox says it cannot build as many consoles as people want to buy. Not won’t. Cannot.

The part it is short of is memory. The reason it is short is that data centres are buying memory to run artificial intelligence, and there is only so much of it made each year.

Here is the part worth sitting with. Xbox is owned by Microsoft. Microsoft is one of the largest builders of AI data centres on earth. The same company is on both sides of the counter, and the console arm is the one losing.

That tells you nobody is being punished. There is no plot against games. Something plainer is happening.

Why the data centre wins

A chip factory sells to whoever pays most per chip. Nothing else decides it.

So ask what each buyer can afford to pay. A rack of servers rented out by the hour earns a great deal from every chip inside it. When memory costs more, the renter simply charges more for the work. The cost passes straight through.

A games console cannot do that. It has never been where the money was; the box was always the cheap way in, and the profit came later, from games. Its price sits on a thirty-year habit that buyers read as normal.

So the console maker is not outbid because it is badly run. It is outbid because of what it makes. Its finished product simply earns less per chip than the other buyer’s does, and that is the whole contest.

This is not the cheap-box arrangement

It is worth separating two things that look alike.

One is a company choosing to sell the machine cheap so it can sell you games for a decade. That is a decision, made deliberately, and it can be changed.

This is different. This is a price the console maker does not choose at all, arriving from a market it is barely a participant in. The first is a strategy. The second is weather.

Who eats a shortage

When something runs short, the shortage does not land on everyone equally. It lands on whoever can raise their own price least.

That is why the choices in front of a console maker all look bad. Charge more, and fewer people buy. One analyst firm put the next generation at about 39 million fewer machines over five years, at a thousand dollars rather than seven hundred. Hold the price, and you lose money on every box, and still cannot get enough chips to build them. Redesign around the shortage, and you spend a year not shipping.

Notice what none of those options do. None of them gets the chips back at the old price.

Where the money actually went

The same forecast expects roughly 12% less player spending in the first three years of the next generation, around $3.4 billion. Much of that, it says, gets absorbed by the cost of parts rather than reaching the people who make and sell games.

That money has not disappeared. It has moved. It is now with the companies that make memory.

Which means a small studio in Manchester or Montreal earns less this decade partly because of purchasing decisions made in server farms it has never heard of. Nobody sent it a bill. Nobody told it. The connection is real and completely invisible from where it sits.

What any one seat can see

From the shop floor, a $650 console looks like greed. From inside the console company, it looks like survival. From the chip factory, it looks like ordinary business - two customers, one of them paying more.

Every one of those readings is honest and none of them is the whole thing.

And the web reaches further than it looks. Anyone who has typed a question into an AI assistant this year is a very small part of the demand that bid those chips away. Not to blame - the share is microscopic and nobody chose it. That is the point. A price nobody set and nobody meant, reaching a machine in a living room and a job in a studio. It was assembled out of millions of separate uses of the same grey square of silicon.

Which is a reason to hold your explanation of any price a little more loosely than the price makes you want to.

03 · Lab · your turn

Outbid for your own parts

Rehearse being priced out of the part your product is made of, and see that every move only decides who loses the value.

04 · Hope · carry this

A chip shortage can raise the price of every console on earth and still not touch what one person can make. Someone spent eight years building a world, then gave it away.

Across the beats