Mind & Body · Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Climate change caused a record share of heat deaths, the Lancet Countdown finds, and 146 health experts ask for it to be declared a global health emergency
Heat was linked to a record 710,000 deaths in 2023, about 71.5% of them caused by climate change, and the yearly report says health harms are now growing faster than the world's response.
710,000
deaths linked to heat worldwide in 2023, a record
More than HIV or malaria killed that year.
55% to 68%
of heat deaths caused by climate change, 2006-15 against 2016-23
In the later years that was about 369,900 deaths a year.
$1.07 trillion
of income lost in 2025 because heat kept people from working
Southeast Asia and Africa were hit hardest.
10
countries that spent more on fossil-fuel subsidies than on health in 2024
Those subsidies have doubled since 2016, to $6.2 trillion.
The lead story — what happened
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The Lancet Countdown, a yearly report on climate and health by 146 researchers from more than 30 countries, was published on Tuesday 27 October.
[4] [1] -
It found that heat was linked to a record 710,000 deaths worldwide in 2023, the most recent year with full data.
[4] -
That is more than the number of people who died of HIV or of malaria in the same year.
[4] -
About 71.5% of those heat deaths are put down to climate change. Without it, the report estimates the figure would have been around 200,000.
[1] -
Climate change's share of heat deaths rose to 68% in 2016 to 2023, up from 55% in the ten years before.
[1] [2] -
Ollie Jay of the University of Sydney said deaths are only the tip, with heatstroke, lost sleep and worse long-term illness underneath.
[2] -
Heat wiped out about 573 billion potential working hours in 2025, and farm workers lost the most.
[2] -
That lost work cost about $1.07 trillion of income, with farming and building work hit hardest because they are done outdoors.
[1] [4] -
Parts of Africa and Southeast Asia lost up to 5% of GDP, the value of everything a country produces, against 0.5% in richer economies.
[2] -
The authors ask the WHO, the UN's health agency, and the UN to declare climate change a global health emergency.
[3] [1] -
The WHO's existing emergency label was built for short outbreaks such as Covid-19 and mpox, so the authors want a new tool for a threat that does not end.
[2] -
Some steps worked: cleaner air avoided about 323,000 deaths a year from 2016 to 2023 in a little more than half of countries studied.
[4] -
Fossil-fuel subsidies doubled since 2016 to $6.2 trillion, and in 2024 ten countries spent more on them than on their whole health systems.
[2]
Who is involved
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Marina Romanello
executive director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London; she leads the report
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The Lancet Countdown
a yearly report in The Lancet, a medical journal, that tracks 54 ways climate change affects health
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Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
head of the WHO, the UN's health agency; he called climate change one of the greatest threats to health
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Wellcome Trust
one of the world's largest charities; it paid for the report
How it unfolded
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2015 The Paris climate agreement is signed. Only 14 countries have plans to ready their health services for climate harm.
[2] -
2016 The Paris Agreement comes into force, the start of the decade the report measures.
[3] -
2023 Heat is linked to a record 710,000 deaths.
[4] -
2025 Heat wipes out about 573 billion working hours.
[2] -
27 Oct 2026 The tenth Lancet Countdown is published and asks for a global health emergency.
[4] -
Nov 2026 COP31, the UN climate talks, meet in Turkey, with health formally on the agenda for the first time.
[7]
Where this points
The next test is COP31, the UN climate talks in Turkey in November, where health is formally on the agenda for the first time and the report's authors want it at the centre.
Signals on this beat
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.
Heat was linked to a record 710,000 deaths in 2023.
Private insurers will end the Medicare plans of 4.3 million people on 31 December.
In news stories about psilocybin, the drug in magic mushrooms, 43% named PTSD as a use, though no trial had tested it.
The rest of the day
20 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
4.3 million to lose their Medicare plans
Private insurers will end the Medicare plans of about 4.3 million people on 31 December, KFF, a US health research group, found.
[6] Medicare is US government health cover, and private insurers sell versions of it, such as Medicare Advantage.[6] About 3.1 million are in Medicare Advantage drug plans and 1.2 million in stand-alone drug plans.[6] Humana alone is ending plans for about 530,000 people, and UnitedHealth for 367,000.[6] Humana530 thousand peopleUnitedHealth367 thousand peopleCVS Health254 thousand peopleAware (Minnesota)249 thousand peoplePeople losing a Medicare Advantage drug plan, by the company ending it. These four make up half of the total. Why it matters — People whose plan ends must choose a new one, or they are moved to traditional Medicare automatically.
[6] The yearly window to switch plans opened on 15 October, and the old plans end on 31 December.[6] -
03
Bots wrote three-quarters of a UK health consultation
Bots wrote 90,835 of the 118,756 replies, 76%, to the UK government's 2023 consultation on its tobacco and vapes bill, research published on Tuesday shows.
[5] Almost all of them opposed the plan to ban disposable vapes, and many were sent from a few internet addresses.[5] The study, in the journal Tobacco Control, is by Nason Maani of the University of Edinburgh and Anna Gilmore of the University of Bath.[5] The UK health department spotted the bot replies and left them out, and the ban became law.[5] 76 of 100
replies written by bots
Out of every 100 replies to the 2023 consultation, about 76 came from bots. Why it matters — Maani warned that a few powerful interests could use bots to look like a mass movement.
[5] Better bots will be harder to catch, and every barrier against them also makes it harder for real people to reply.[5] -
04
Floods leave a mental health toll in Africa
A study of 5,336 people in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa looked at mental health after floods.
[7] Among flood survivors, one in 12 had signs of serious anxiety, one in eight had signs of depression, and one in five looked like someone with PTSD.[7] Without the flood, about 25% fewer of them would have had mental health problems, and in South Africa nearly a third fewer.[7] Collins Iwuji, an epidemiologist, led the research team.[7] 1 of 5
flood survivors with PTSD-like symptoms
About one flood survivor in five showed signs like post-traumatic stress disorder. Why it matters — Aid after a flood usually brings food, water and clothes, and a researcher on the team called the missing mental health care a gap.
[7] Climate models show extreme rain will probably come more often as the air keeps warming.[7] -
05
News on psilocybin ran ahead of trials
A review in JAMA Network Open compared 70 clinical trial papers on psilocybin with 172 news articles.
[10] Psilocybin is the drug in magic mushrooms.[10] In 74 articles, 43%, news stories named PTSD as a use, though no trial had tested psilocybin for it.[10] Most stories, 83%, gave no dose, and only 30% mentioned side effects.[10] Almost all the trials, 93%, had fewer than 100 people.[10] Why it matters — The review, led from McMaster University, says trial authors stressed their limits while news stories presented benefits as fact.
[10] Some people already take psilocybin for mental health without approval.[10] -
06
Australian GPs can now diagnose ADHD
From 26 October, 150 family doctors in Victoria, Australia, can diagnose and treat ADHD, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, in adults and children aged six and over.
[8] Until recently, patients needed a referral to a psychiatrist or paediatrician, which they said cost a lot and took long.[8] Nearly 300 GPs in New South Wales have finished training, and 300 more start in November.[8] Queensland was first, last December, and asks its GPs for no extra training.[8] Why it matters — Psychiatrists worry about the uneven training, some of it two days long.
[8] The head of their college said emergency doctors are seeing more people with psychosis linked to ADHD medicine they may not have needed.[8] -
07
Child gun injuries cluster near an old dump
More than 4,000 children in Florida were treated in hospital for gun injuries from 2018 to 2024, about 1.5 a day, KFF Health News and The Trace found.
[15] In Jacksonville, at least 150 of the 375 children came from three ZIP codes around Brown's Dump.[15] The city dumped toxic incinerator ash there in the 1940s and 1950s, then built a school and homes on it.[15] A Wisconsin study linked lead exposure before age six to more gun violence in early adulthood.[15] Why it matters — Parts of the city were redlined in the 1930s, marked as too risky for loans because Black people lived there.
[15] Jacksonville's council voted in 2024 to redress it, and experts and families see little progress.[15] -
08
Florida's dengue outbreak passes 700 cases
Florida has had more than 700 dengue cases this year, over 400 of them caught from local mosquitoes, two US mosquito researchers wrote.
[17] Dengue is a virus spread by mosquitoes.[17] Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, had more than 350 cases by late October, at least one of them fatal.[17] Miami-Dade County had more than 200, and the state's count is still rising in what has been called its largest outbreak in modern times.[17] Why it matters — The researchers name two causes: warmer weather, and new housing that makes small pools of standing water where these mosquitoes breed.
[17] The Lancet Countdown found conditions for dengue spreading faster since 2016.[3] -
09
Drug deaths high among Welsh prison leavers
Drug poisonings caused 19 of the 52 deaths, 37%, among people on probation after prison in Wales in 2024-25, a Cardiff University report found.
[9] Across England and Wales it was 131 of 620, about 21%.[9] People sleeping rough on their release day rose 24% in 2025-26, to 695.[9] Prisons and probation in Wales are run by the UK government, while health and housing are run by the Welsh government.[9] Why it matters — The report's author, Robert Jones, says the deaths fall in the gap between the two governments.
[9] Wales' government wants control of justice, and the UK justice ministry says it spends 3.4 million pounds on addiction help for leavers.[9] -
10
Reopened LGBTQ+ crisis line keeps its critics
The US option for LGBTQ+ young people on 988, the national suicide and crisis line, is back after 14 months shut.
[11] It took more than 1.5 million calls, texts and chats before it closed in July 2025.[11] The US health department told the Guardian it stays in line with orders to restore 'biological truth', and did not answer questions about changes.[11] The Trevor Project, a youth suicide charity that helped build it, is shut out.[11] Why it matters — LGBTQ+ young people are more than three times as likely to attempt suicide as their peers, according to survey data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
[11] The Trevor Project says it cannot tell whether the department's orders change how the new line treats callers.[11] -
11
Rib-breaking waist surgery is growing
A small but growing number of women pay surgeons to crack several lower ribs and bind the waist in a corset for three months, the Guardian reports.
[14] A study of 2,351 patients from 2018 to 2024 found 3.7% had complications.[14] Risks include a collapsed lung and blood in the chest, both potentially fatal.[14] The British Association of Aesthetic Plastic Surgeons does not endorse it, and it is not offered in the UK.[14] Why it matters — Ribs set in a new shape cannot be put back, unlike an implant.
[14] UK surgeons are told to give patients at least two weeks to think, but one woman met her surgeon the day before.[14] -
12
Antibiotics linked to Kawasaki disease in Japan
Children given antibiotics were more likely to get Kawasaki disease, a study of 17,410 cases in Japan found.
[12] Kawasaki disease swells the blood vessels in children under five, and its cause is unknown.[12] Penicillins were linked to about 27% higher odds, and five or more prescriptions to 22% higher odds.[12] Antibiotics taken by mouth were linked to it, and those given into a vein were not.[12] Why it matters — Antibiotics change the gut's bacteria, which some scientists think play a part in the disease.
[12] The study shows a link, not a cause, and the authors call for more work on how it might happen.[12] -
13
Long Covid lasted a year in 16% of hospital staff
Of 771 hospital staff who had Covid-19, 27.9% had long Covid at some point, a survey at the IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo Foundation found.
[13] Long Covid here means symptoms lasting beyond 12 weeks.[13] The share fell from 26% at three months to 16% at a year.[13] Nurses were hit most, at 35%, and tiredness, joint pain and memory trouble lasted longest.[13] Why it matters — Health workers were at high risk of catching Covid-19, and the authors say the results matter for planning hospital staffing.
[13] Only 41% of those asked answered, which may change the figures.[13] -
14
Ethiopia's HPV jab misses most types found
Of 217 pregnant women tested in eastern Ethiopia, 12.9% carried a high-risk type of HPV, the virus behind most cervical cancer, a study found.
[20] Ethiopia uses a vaccine that covers four types of HPV.[20] It would have covered the types found in 25% of the infected women.[20] A vaccine covering nine types would have covered 71.4%.[20] Why it matters — A vaccine protects only against the types it was built for, so the choice of vaccine decides how much cancer it can prevent.
[20] The study is small and from one region.[20] -
15
Mice with Parkinson's-like damage recovered
Mice given a pesticide, rotenone, for 21 days moved slowly and lost balance, then recovered without treatment within a year, a Medical College of Wisconsin team found.
[16] Parkinson's disease damages brain cells that make dopamine, a chemical that controls movement.[16] Early on, about 40% fewer cells showed the dopamine marker, but most cells had not died.[16] The lead scientist said they seemed to lose their identity.[16] Why it matters — Only male mice were studied, three to eight per group.
[16] The lead scientist warned the result does not mean the pesticide is harmless or apply to people.[16] -
16
An implant pulls sugar out of mouse blood
An inch-long implant that turns blood sugar into a harmless chemical kept blood sugar steady in mice with diabetes and obesity, a team at ETH Zurich reported in the journal Science.
[21] A phone powers it, and a glucose monitor tells it when to work.[21] Over six weeks the mice lost about 10% of their weight on average.[21] It also worked in a five-litre beaker, about a person's blood volume.[21] Why it matters — About 790 million people have type 2 diabetes.
[21] The team still has to show it works safely in larger animals and people.[21] -
17
Acne vaccines head towards first trials
Sanofi, a big drug company, has made an mRNA vaccine against acne, New Scientist reports.
[18] It targets a toxin from a common skin bacterium that may make the immune system overreact inside hair follicles.[18] Its trial was listed as not yet recruiting on 18 September.[18] A US start-up, Armora Biosciences, is working on a vaccine against a different bacterial protein, so far tested in mice.[18] Why it matters — Antibiotics for acne also kill helpful skin bacteria, and isotretinoin, a stronger pill, has serious side effects.
[18] A researcher at Armora said acne can lead to depression and isolation.[18] -
18
A keto diet works differently by body type
A 60-day ketogenic diet, very low in carbohydrates, changed bodies differently depending on weight and sex, a study in Scientific Reports found.
[19] Ketone levels, the sign the diet is working, rose in every group, and most in men with obesity.[19] The body's response to insulin improved mainly in people who were overweight or obese.[19] Body fat fell, while ghrelin, the hunger hormone, did not change.[19] Why it matters — Ketogenic diets are increasingly used for weight loss, and this exploratory study suggests people do not all respond to them the same way.
[19] -
19
250 US hospitals pledge healthier patient meals
More than 250 hospitals have signed a pledge to serve healthier meals to patients, US health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on Monday.
[22] He spoke in Grand Rapids, Michigan, at Corewell Health's Lifestyle and Culinary Medicine Practice.[22] The pledge is part of his Make America Healthy Again plan, which treats food as medicine.[22] Why it matters — Kennedy said he expects patients to be more satisfied, citing hospitals that have already made such changes.
[22] -
20
Plastic makers knew in the 1970s it reached organs
Chemical companies knew from the 1970s that swallowed bits of plastic could reach the body's organs, a Los Angeles Times investigation found, Yale Environment 360 reports.
[23] At a 1974 meeting, German scientist Gerhard Volkheimer showed that bits of PVC, a common plastic, fed to dogs and pigs reached their liver, brain and lungs within two hours.[23] Industry memos kept citing his work, and a 1975 Union Carbide memo called it a 'horror story'.[23] The documents came out through court cases.[23] Why it matters — Microplastics have since been found in human blood, placentas and breast milk, though some ways of measuring them may be prone to error.
[23] The American Chemistry Council, an industry group, says scientific debate is not the same as staying silent.[23] -
21
Tech parents push screens out of schools
Parents in California's tech towns are pushing public schools to cut back on screens, the Guardian reports.
[24] In San Mateo, schools stopped sending laptops home with children in their first three school years, and high schools ban phones.[24] Palo Alto's schools banned smart glasses, and Mountain View's are moving away from a reading and maths app.[24] Kindergarten at one screen-free private school in San Francisco costs $40,000 a year, and many of its new parents work in tech.[24] Why it matters — Research suggests pupils remember more of what they learn with pen and paper than on screens.
[24] Experts fear poorer school districts will keep the screens richer ones drop, because teachers cost more than software.[24]
Why a warning helps when it comes early enough to act on
A warning protects people only through what they do next, so it must arrive with time to spare and name a step they can take.
The twist
A warning protects nobody by itself. It works only through what people do next, so what counts is how much time it leaves and what step it names.
The picture
How it works
- Someone sees a danger coming
- The notice travels to the person at risk
- It arrives with days or weeks to spare
- It names a step that person can take
- They act, and the harm shrinks
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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4.3 million to lose their Medicare plans
Insurers named the closures before the switching window opened on 15 October, so people have weeks to pick a new plan before 31 December.
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Floods leave a mental health toll in Africa
The researchers say a flood warning that comes early enough lets families prepare or move out before the water arrives.
-
Rib-breaking waist surgery is growing
Daniela Cesin heard about the rib operation from her surgeon the day before, with flights already paid, so she had no real time to weigh the risks.
Where you've seen this
Tsunami sirens
the minutes between the siren and the wave decide who reaches high ground
Smoke alarms
an alarm at night works because it wakes people while there is still time to get out
A phone's battery alert
a warning at 20% leaves time to find a charger, and one at 1% does not
The catch
A warning with time to spare still fails people who have no step to take, such as no other plan in their area, no cool room or no way to leave.
And the whole of it
An insurer, a forecaster and a surgeon each know of a danger before the person it lands on. Each of us is on the receiving end of notices like these, and some of us also send them, to a parent, a patient or a neighbour.
What is really going on
Heat caused by climate change killed more than half a million people in 2023, the Lancet Countdown estimates, and the harm is now growing faster than the response. In 2024, ten countries spent more on fossil-fuel subsidies than on their whole health systems.
Why it works on us — Climate goals are written in degrees and emission targets, which are hard to picture, so the report's funder, the Wellcome Trust, asks for success to be counted in lives saved.
Who gains
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The world's largest oil and gas companies
— Fossil-fuel subsidies doubled after 2016 to $6.2 trillion, and the 100 biggest firms are on track to produce 150% more by 2040 than a 1.5C limit allows.
[2] -
People in about half the countries studied, led by China and the US
— Cleaner air, helped by the growth of clean energy, avoided about 323,000 deaths a year from 2016 to 2023.
[4] -
Clinics selling rib-breaking waist surgery
— Ten Australian influencers flew to Bali in July on a brand deal with one such clinic and posted their new waists on Instagram.
[14] -
ADHD patients in Victoria and New South Wales
— Hundreds of trained GPs can now diagnose ADHD without a specialist referral, which patients said cost a lot and took long.
[8]
Who pays
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Farm and building workers in Africa and Southeast Asia
— Heat cut their working hours most, and those economies lost up to 5% of GDP against 0.5% in richer ones.
[2] [1] -
The 4.3 million people whose Medicare plans end
— They must choose a new plan or be moved to traditional Medicare, and Humana alone is ending plans for about 530,000.
[6] -
Flood survivors in poor communities in Africa
— In South Africa, nearly a third fewer of those studied would have mental health problems without the flood.
[7] -
People leaving prison in Wales
— Drug poisonings caused 19 of 52 deaths among them in 2024-25, and 695 slept rough on the day they were released.
[9] -
Children in the ZIP codes around Brown's Dump in Jacksonville
— At least 150 of the city's 375 children treated in hospital for gun injuries since 2018 came from those three ZIP codes.
[15]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
How many people heat killed in 2024 and 2025.
2023 is the most recent year with complete data, and the report's death totals are estimates.
[4] [1] -
02
Whether the WHO and the UN will declare climate change a global health emergency, and what that would change.
No tool for a lasting emergency exists yet. The WHO's current emergency label was built for short outbreaks such as Covid-19 and mpox.
[2] -
03
Who sent the 90,835 bot replies to the UK vapes consultation.
The UK health department says the replies came from a small number of internet addresses, and neither it nor the researchers name a sender.
[5] -
04
How many of the 4.3 million people losing a Medicare plan will choose a new one by 31 December.
Those who do nothing are moved to traditional Medicare, and some may have no other private plan in their area.
[6] -
05
What the US health department's pledge to restore 'biological truth' means for calls to the LGBTQ+ crisis line.
The department did not answer the Guardian's questions about policy changes, and the Trevor Project says it cannot tell.
[11] -
06
Whether antibiotics cause Kawasaki disease, or whether children who get them differ in other ways.
The Japanese study found a link between the two, not a cause, and the authors call for more work on how it might happen.
[12] -
07
Whether the mice's recovery from Parkinson's-like damage says anything about people.
Only male mice were studied, three to eight per group, and the lead scientist says the result should not be applied to patients or workers.
[16] -
08
How well trained Australia's ADHD-diagnosing GPs are.
Training runs from months in Western Australia and New South Wales to none at all in Queensland, and psychiatrists want one standard.
[8]
Cleaner air avoided about 323,000 deaths a year between 2016 and 2023, in a little more than half of the countries the Lancet Countdown studied.
Also true today
- Fifty-six countries now have plans to prepare their health services for heatwaves and disease outbreaks, up from 14 in 2015.
- The UK health department caught 90,835 fake replies from bots and left them out, and the ban on disposable vapes became law.
- From 26 October, 150 family doctors in Victoria, Australia, can diagnose and treat ADHD without sending patients to a specialist first.
- Among hospital staff who had long Covid, the share still ill fell from 26% at three months to 16% at a year.
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