NHS England is on track to miss its cancer treatment target by nearly 9,500 patients, a charity's count of official figures finds

The stories

7 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   NHS England is on track to miss its cancer treatment target by nearly 9,500 patients, a charity's count of official figures finds

   70.7%

   of cancer patients in England started treatment within 62 days in September

   down from 71.9% in August, against an 80% target for March 2027 [1]

   2,850

   more patients a month would need treating on time to hit the target

   the NHS treats about 21,500 a month within 62 days now [1]

   9,490

   patients short of the target by March, by Radiotherapy UK's count

   the sum assumes patient numbers stay the same each month [1]

   55.4%

   of cancer patients diagnosed within 28 days of an urgent referral last year

   the target is 80%, Cancer Research UK's analysis shows [1]

   What happened

   • NHS England aims to start 80% of cancer patients' treatment within 62 days of an urgent referral by March 2027. [1]
   • In September only 70.7% started on time, down from 71.9% in August. [1]
   • Radiotherapy UK, a cancer charity, works out a shortfall of 9,490 patients treated on time by March. [1]
   • To reach 80%, about 24,400 patients a month must start treatment on time. [1] The NHS manages about 21,500. [1]
   • That leaves a gap of 2,850 patients every month until March. [1]
   • Waits differ by cancer: 70.1% of prostate patients were treated on time, but 56.5% of head and neck patients. [1]
   • Breast cancer stood at 68.8% and lung cancer at 60.9%. [1]
   • By region, the Midlands treated 66.6% on time and London 77.3%. [1]
   • Urgent cancer referrals in England rose about 20% in 4 years, Cancer Research UK says. [1]
   • More than twice as many patients are seen after urgent cancer referrals as in 2014/15, an NHS network says. [4]
   • Capacity, above all staff, did not keep pace with that demand, the network says. [4]
   • England is short of about 30% of the radiologists and 15% of the cancer specialists it needs, surveys suggest. [3]
   • These are the doctors who diagnose, monitor and treat cancer. [1]
   • NHS hiring freezes for these doctors doubled in the last year, the Royal College of Radiologists says. [1]
   • Only 55.4% of patients were diagnosed within 28 days of an urgent referral last year, against a target of 80%. [1]
   • People told they did not have cancer got that answer on time 79.1% of the time. [1]
   • The 62-day standard was last met in 2015/16, at 85%. [4] It fell to 65% in 2022/23. [4]
   • The UK government's cancer plan aims for 85% by March 2029. [2]
   • Alan, 70, waited 128 days for lung cancer surgery, the BBC reported, and his cancer spread. [2]
   • Each month a cancer patient waits cuts their chance of survival by around 10% on average, the BBC reported. [2]
   • The UK health department says all three cancer standards are better than a year ago. [1]
   • It says 290,000 more people got a diagnosis or an all-clear on time than in the year before the election. [1]

   Who is involved

   • Royal College of Radiologists the professional body for radiologists and cancer doctors; it says hiring freezes doubled
   • Clinical oncologists run treatments like chemotherapy
   • Radiotherapy UK a UK cancer charity led by oncologist Pat Price; it worked out the monthly shortfall
   • NHS England the national body that runs the health service in England; it set the 80% target for March 2027
   • UK Department of Health and Social Care the UK government's health department; it says waits are improving
   • Cancer Research UK a cancer research charity; its analysis found 55.4% diagnosed within 28 days

   How it unfolded

   1. 2015/16 the standard is last met, at 85% [4]
   2. 2022/23 performance falls to 65% [4]
   3. This September 70.7%
   4. Diagnosis surgery due within weeks
   5. 128 days later operation; the cancer had spread
   6. Mar 2027 the 80% target falls due [1]
   7. March 2029 85% target due
   8. 1997 the 62-day target is set [5]
   9. Sept 2026 70.7% treated within 62 days [1]

   Why it matters

   The gap falls hardest on head and neck, lung and gynaecological cancers, and on the Midlands. [1]

   Faster diagnosis helps only if treatment follows quickly, the Royal College of Physicians says. [1]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why can't the NHS just treat more people each month?

      Radiotherapy UK's chair says the NHS lacks the staff and equipment for the patients coming in. [1]

   2. 2

      But isn't the NHS getting more money?

      The UK government is raising the NHS budget by 3% a year above inflation. [3] Urgent cancer referrals have more than doubled since 2014/15. [4]

      NHS budget+3% a year

      vsvs

      Urgent referralsmore than doubled
   3. 3

      Is 62 days a line drawn from medical evidence?

      No: the 62-day target dates from 1997, and three BMJ authors call it one-size-fits-all and lacking evidence. [5]

   4. 4

      So do the official figures show the whole wait?

      No: about 30% of cancer patients are diagnosed through routine referrals, which the 62-day target does not count. [5]

      30 of 100

      of cancer patients outside the 62-day count

   5. 5

      Who is answerable if the target is missed?

      The cancer plan promised an independent cancer board, but in September nobody knew who would lead it. [2]

   6. 6

      Who could close the gap?

      The Royal College of Radiologists says the UK government must end the hiring freezes for cancer doctors. [1]

   7. 7

      So what is really going on?

      Patients are arriving faster than the staff who treat them are hired. [4] So each month falls about 2,850 patients short of the target. [1]

      More patients arrive→Staff numbers lag→2,850 short each month

   How it works

   In system dynamics, a waiting list is a stock: it fills with what comes in, minus what goes out.

   Each month about 24,400 patients need treatment on time and about 21,500 get it. [1] The 2,850 left over add up to 9,490 by March. [1]

   Seen it before

   A bath fills up when the tap runs even a little faster than the drain, however long you wait.

   The truth

   • What is really going on NHS England treats about 21,500 cancer patients a month within 62 days, while its March 2027 target needs about 24,400, so it falls about 2,850 patients short every month. [1]Urgent referrals have more than doubled since 2014/15 while the staff to treat them have not kept pace. [4]
   • Why it works on people A share like 70.7% sounds close to an 80% target, and the gap only feels real when it is counted as 2,850 people a month.
   • The 9,490 figure assumes patient numbers stay the same each month. [1] Referrals are still rising for nearly every cancer type, the BBC reported. [2]
   • The UK health department said waiting times are 'moving in the right direction', and did not mention the March target. [1]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How many of the patients treated late will die because of the wait.

     The 10% fall in survival for each month of waiting is an average, and BMJ authors write that the effect of waiting across more than 200 types of cancer is poorly understood. [2][5]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Who will lead England's promised independent cancer board.

     The cancer plan promised the board, and in September it was still not known who would lead it. [2]

   What comes next

   The 80% target falls due in March 2027, and 85% is due by March 2029. [2]

1. 02

   Betting sites take wagers on US health

   What happened

   • Polymarket and Kalshi, two US betting sites called prediction markets, now take bets on public health. [6]
   • Users can bet on how many measles cases the US will see this year, and on drug trial results. [6]
   • They can also bet on when the FDA, the US medicines regulator, approves a skin-cancer vaccine. [6]
   • Monthly trading on the two sites rose from $0.8 billion in July 2024 to $53 billion in July 2026. [7]
   • The sites call their bets financial contracts, so US states do not regulate them as gambling, a Rutgers expert says. [6]
   • Several states have sued the companies, saying they run gambling sites. [6]

   Who is involved

   • Polymarket now takes health bets
   • Kalshi began health bets in the summer

   Why it matters

   Gambling harm already reaches the young: a new report found 10.3% of young gamblers at high risk of problem gambling. [6]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Could someone bet on a rule they can change?

      Yes: no law appears to stop officials betting on vaccine rules they then change, a Rutgers gambling expert says. [6]

      Bet on a vaccine rule→Change the rule→Collect the win
   2. 2

      And what about the bet on measles status?

      The health body for the Americas concluded this week that the US has lost it, researchers say. [8] It plans to announce it on 17 November. [8]

   3. 3

      So what is really going on?

      The sites sit under US commodities rules, so state limits on gambling do not reach them. [6] Very little of their revenue reaches states as tax for gambling treatment. [6]

      State gambling rulesdo not apply

      ++

      Tax for treatmentvery little

   How it works

   Market regulators call it insider trading: betting with facts the public cannot yet see. [6]

   A trial worker who sees results early could bet before anyone else knows, a Johns Hopkins professor says. [6]

   Seen it before

   A pupil who has seen the answer sheet can bet a friend on the quiz and never lose.

   The truth

   • Kalshi says its trial bets bring scattered knowledge into public view. [6] Polymarket did not answer the Guardian's questions. [6]
2. 03

   The CDC's journal goes quiet on measles

   What happened

   • The CDC, the US public health agency, reports urgent findings in its weekly journal, MMWR. [8]
   • It has not published detailed reports on huge measles outbreaks in South Carolina, Utah and Pennsylvania, KFF Health News found. [8]
   • The outbreaks have sickened more than 8,000 people and cost about $125 million, Johns Hopkins researchers estimate. [8]

   Who is involved

   • South Carolina no detailed report
   • Utah no detailed report
   • Pennsylvania no detailed report

   How it unfolded

   During the 2014, 2015 and 2019 outbreaks, the journal published detailed articles within weeks. [8]

   1. 2014 to 2019 reports within weeks
   2. 2025 no report on the outbreaks

   Why it matters

   Doctors and health departments use the journal's reports to guide their response to outbreaks, a former CDC deputy director says. [8]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      So where do CDC scientists' findings go now?

      They told KFF they no longer expect to publish in MMWR, because the process became slow and unpredictable. [8]

   2. 2

      Do the official death counts even agree?

      No: the CDC's measles dashboard counts 4 fewer deaths than state health departments have reported this year. [8]

      4fewer measles deaths on the CDC dashboard than states report

   3. 3

      So what is really going on?

      The agency that used to sound the alarm on measles has gone quieter, its own scientists say. [8] The health secretary above it, Robert Kennedy Jr, once led an anti-vaccine group. [8]

   How it works

   Public health calls this risk communication: telling people about a danger soon enough for them to act.

   In 2015, 125 measles cases led the US Congress to call the CDC to testify. [8] In 2025, an outbreak that killed at least 16 brought no hearing. [8]

   Seen it before

   A smoke alarm with no battery still hangs on the ceiling, but nobody hears it when a fire starts.

   The truth

   • CDC officials told KFF Health News that political appointees delayed or blocked several articles. [8]
   • The US health department says the claim that it suppresses measles information is false. [8]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Why the CDC counts 4 fewer US measles deaths than the states do.

     Health secretary Robert Kennedy Jr has disputed some deaths, and has claimed without evidence that Pennsylvania officials misrepresented data. [8]

3. 04

   Measles worries shadow the Pope's crowds

   What happened

   • Pope Leo XIV drew about 500,000 people to an open-air mass in Chiclayo, Peru, on Friday. [9]
   • PAHO, the health body for the Americas, rated the measles risk at his mass gatherings 'very high'. [9]
   • The Americas recorded 57,666 measles cases in 17 countries and territories this year, almost five times the year before. [9]
   • At least 81 people have died of measles in the Americas this year. [9]
   • Stopping its spread needs 95% of people fully vaccinated, and in 2025 only Uruguay reached that. [9]
   • Peru's cover stood at 90% for a first dose and 82% for a second. [9] Argentina's stood at 84% and 55%. [9]

   How it unfolded

   1. This month the Pope's visit
   2. 29 Nov Uruguay's extra checks end

   Why it matters

   The 95% line also protects babies and others who cannot have the vaccine. [9]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why do big crowds worry health officials?

      Measles is a highly contagious virus carried in the air, so a huge crowd gives it many people to reach. [9]

      Airborne virus→Packed crowd→Many exposed
   2. 2

      What does this have to do with the US?

      The US has also lost its measles-free status, researchers told KFF Health News this week. [8]

   3. 3

      Why is cover so low in Argentina?

      Experts worry that health spending cuts have scaled back the teams that plan and fund vaccination there. [9]

   How it works

   Epidemiologists call it herd immunity: when nearly everyone is immune, the virus runs out of people to infect.

   Below that line each case still finds people to infect, and Peru has had almost 3,000 cases this year. [9]

   Good news

   • Peru stepped up vaccination before the visit, giving 1.2 million doses between April and September. [9]

   What comes next

   Uruguay is running extra disease checks until 29 November, weeks after the Pope leaves. [9]

1. 05

   Most diabetes in Africa goes undiagnosed

   What happened

   • World Diabetes Day, on 14 November, carried the theme of early action this year. [13]
   • In Africa, nearly 3 in 4 adults with diabetes do not know they have it, the WHO's Africa office says. [10]
   • About 24.6 million African adults had diabetes in 2024, a number expected to reach 59.5 million by 2050. [10]
   • In South Africa, diabetes caused more than 6% of natural deaths in 2024, overtaking HIV as the top killer. [11]
   • Up to two-thirds of South Africans with diabetes are thought to be undiagnosed. [11]

   Who is involved

   Diabetes means too much sugar in the blood, which over time damages the nerves and blood vessels. [12]

   Why it matters

   Type 2 diabetes can cause no clear symptoms for years, so damage often starts before anyone tests for it. [12]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      What help do people with diabetes get there?

      Gaps in South Africa's health system mean almost no diabetes education reaches patients, a diabetes alliance says. [11]

   2. 2

      Is that only an African problem?

      No: in 2022, 59% of adults over 30 with diabetes worldwide took no diabetes medicine, the WHO says. [12]

      59 of 100

      adults over 30 with diabetes taking no medicine, 2022

   3. 3

      So what is really going on?

      Diabetes grows quietly, so many cases are found only after the damage begins. [12] Too few tests and trained health workers mean many are found late. [10]

      Years unnoticedno symptoms

      ↓→

      Found latedamage done

   How it works

   Doctors call testing people before any symptoms appear screening.

   The WHO's Africa office calls for screening people at higher risk, because diabetes can develop without obvious symptoms. [10]

   Seen it before

   A slow leak under the floor rots the boards long before anyone sees water.

   Why a small gap each month makes a cancer waiting list grow

   In system dynamics a waiting list is a stock: new patients fill it and treatment empties it, so a steady monthly gap keeps adding up.

   The twist

   A waiting list can grow every month even when a hospital treats as many people as before, because new patients keep arriving a little faster.

   The picture

   Patients a month

   Needed each month24,400

   Treated on time21,500

   Step by step

   1. 1 New patients join the list each month
   2. 2 Treatment takes patients off it
   3. 3 If fewer leave than join, the list grows
   4. 4 The small monthly gap adds up

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Ebola in Congo

     New infections arrive faster than tracing teams can follow them, so untraced surprise cases keep adding up.

   • Diabetes in Africa

     The number living with diabetes fills with new cases each year and is expected to grow from 24.6 million to 59.5 million by 2050.

   • The US measles status

     The US gets its status back only after the current outbreaks end, so the number of live outbreaks has to fall to zero first.

   Where you've seen this

   A bath

   the tap runs a little faster than the drain, so the water rises

   A credit card

   spending a little more than is repaid each month makes the debt grow

   A homework pile

   setting more than pupils finish each week makes the pile rise

   The catch

   The 9,490 sum assumes patient numbers stay the same each month. If referrals keep rising, the real gap is bigger.

   And the whole of it

   Each patient sees one wait, each hospital sees its own queue, and only a count across all of England shows the 9,490. Most people end up on a list like this at some point, seeing only their own place in it.

   Good news

   • Rwanda now runs a WHO care package for severe chronic illness in every district, the WHO's Africa chief says. [10]

1. 06

   The UK issues more cold health alerts

   What happened

   • The UK Health Security Agency issued cold health alerts for the north-west, West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber. [14]
   • They run from 9pm on Sunday until 9am on Thursday. [14]
   • On Friday night temperatures fell to -6.6C in Sennybridge, near Brecon in south Wales. [14]

   How it unfolded

   The season's first yellow alerts, for the West Midlands and the north-west, ran until noon on Saturday. [14]

   1. Sun 9pm alerts start
   2. Thu 9am alerts end

   Why it matters

   The agency says the cold raises the risk to life for people over 65 and those with health conditions. [14]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Who is the alert actually written for?

      It warns health and care services to expect more patients, the agency says. [14]

      Cold snap→More people need care→Services warned ahead
   2. 2

      Is this an early start to the alert season?

      No: cold health alerts usually run from 1 November to 30 March. [15] This season's first came earlier this week. [14]

   How it works

   Public health calls this an early warning system: an alert set off by a forecast, before the harm arrives.

   The agency issued its alert ahead of the Monday cold snap the Met Office forecast. [14]

   Seen it before

   A school sends a note home before a snow day, so families can plan before the roads ice over.

2. 07

   Ebola deaths at home feed fear in Congo

   What happened

   • Doctors Without Borders, a medical charity, says Congo's Ebola outbreak is still not under control after six months. [17]
   • It has killed more than 5,400 people and infected about 11,000, the second largest outbreak on record. [17]
   • Most new patients in treatment centres are 'surprise cases' with no known link to other cases, MSF's Anna Halford says. [17]
   • Most Ebola deaths happen in the community, not in treatment centres, which gives the virus more chances to spread. [17]
   • Dr Raymond Kasereka Kamwanga, a doctor in Butembo, caught Ebola in July. [16]
   • His family called the treatment centre a 'death house', and his mother begged him not to go. [16]

   Who is involved

   It is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment. [16]

   • Dr Kamwanga a Butembo doctor who caught Ebola

   Why it matters

   Kamwanga says people see many deaths and few recoveries, and that feeds fear of the centres. [16]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why do people distrust the response?

      Some see awareness campaigns as a way for aid groups to profit from donor money, Kamwanga says. [16]

   2. 2

      Is help reaching the front line?

      Many front-line workers lack basic equipment, and some health workers have not been paid, MSF says. [17]

   3. 3

      So what is really going on?

      MSF's Halford says the gap is steady resources sent where needed, not money. [17] Kamwanga now shares his story to fight rumours and mistrust. [16]

      Moneynot the gap

      vsvs

      Steady resourcesthe gap

   How it works

   Epidemiologists call it contact tracing: finding everyone a sick person met, so new cases are caught early.

   When most new patients are surprise cases, tracing has missed the chains of infection, Halford says. [17]

   Seen it before

   If nobody keeps track of who borrowed the class pens, they keep turning up in strangers' bags.

   New infections arrive faster than tracing teams can follow them, so untraced surprise cases keep adding up.

   The idea, in story 05: Why a small gap each month makes a cancer waiting list grow →

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     How many people in Congo carry Ebola without anyone knowing.

     Most new patients are surprise cases with no known link to other cases, so the chains nobody traced cannot be counted. [17]

   Good news

   • Kamwanga went anyway, recovered after 13 days, and is one of 3,031 survivors so far. [16]