Personal Money · Monday, 12 October 2026
A US lenders' group expects home loan rates to stay above 7% through 2027, as the US central bank keeps raising its rate
The Mortgage Bankers Association told its convention on Sunday that 30-year US home loan rates will stay above 7% until the end of 2027, and that fewer loans will be made. In Britain, lenders expect more missed card payments, and roofing tops the list of scams.
Above 7%
for 30-year US home loan rates through 2027, the lenders' group expects
Freddie Mac's average last week was 7.40%, a three-year high
$2,407
a month in loan payments on a typical US home at a 7.53% rate
about 27% of a typical family's income, with a fifth of the price paid up front
$1.99tn
of US home loans the MBA expects lenders to make in 2027
5% less than in 2026, with refinancing down 17%
35%
chance of a US recession within a year, by Fratantoni's estimate
he says much of today's spending leans on high share prices
The lead story — what happened
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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the trade group for US home lenders, forecast on Sunday that 30-year home loan rates will stay above 7% through the end of 2027.
[1] [2] -
Its chief economist, Mike Fratantoni, gave the forecast at the group's yearly convention in Chicago. He expects the rate to average 7.3% in the last three months of 2026.
[1] [2] -
Freddie Mac, a US government-backed company that buys home loans, put last week's average rate at 7.40%, the highest in three years.
[2] -
Rates have climbed since late February, when the war with Iran pushed up oil prices and inflation, the general rise in prices.
[2] [7] On the measure used by Bankrate, a US personal finance website, the rate was 6.09% at its lowest this year.[3] -
In September the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, raised its main rate for the first time in three years, to between 3.75% and 4%.
[6] [8] -
Fratantoni expects two more quarter-point rises, one in December and one early in 2027.
[1] [2] -
Lenders are also charging more above what the US government pays to borrow for ten years. That gap is about 2.2 percentage points, against 2 earlier this year, because investors now fear bigger swings.
[1] -
At a 7.53% rate, the loan payment on a typical US home, with a fifth paid up front, is $2,407 a month. That is about 27% of a typical family's income, Bankrate worked out.
[3] -
The MBA expects lenders to make 5% less in home loans in 2027, $1.99 trillion, and 17% less in refinancing.
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Only about one US home loan in five carries a rate above 6%, so few owners gain anything by refinancing at 7% to 7.5%, the MBA's Joel Kan said.
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Buyers still in the market are turning to adjustable-rate loans, which start cheaper but can rise later. They made almost 10% of applications in the past month.
[2] -
Higher rates pay savers more: US cash accounts now pay in the mid-3% range, a financial planner wrote in Kiplinger, a US personal finance magazine.
[8]
Who is involved
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Mortgage Bankers Association
the trade group for US home lenders; it forecast rates above 7% through 2027
[1] -
Mike Fratantoni
the MBA's chief economist; he expects two more rate rises and puts recession odds at 35%
[2] -
The Federal Reserve
the US central bank, led by Kevin Warsh; it raised its main rate in September for the first time in three years
[6] -
Joel Kan
the MBA's deputy chief economist; he says refinancing at today's rates makes sense for very few owners
[1]
How it unfolded
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Late Feb home loan rates start climbing as the Iran war lifts oil prices
[2] -
16 Sep the US central bank raises its rate for the first time in three years
[5] [6] -
22 Sep the MBA and Fannie Mae, a government-backed home loan company, cut their lending forecasts as rates pass 7%
[4] -
Last week Freddie Mac's average rate reaches 7.40%, a three-year high
[2] -
Sun 11 Oct the MBA forecasts rates above 7% through 2027
[1] [2] -
December the next quarter-point rise the MBA expects from the US central bank
[1]
Where this points
The next test is the US central bank's December meeting, where the MBA expects another quarter-point rise; a pause there would undercut the forecast of rates above 7%.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
The US home lenders' group expects 30-year loan rates above 7% until the end of 2027.
Fratantoni blamed this year's energy price shock for keeping US inflation high.
Citizens Advice says roofing is now the most common scam it sees, and in one case traders kept finding more work to charge for.
A website sold tickets to nine Halloween events, and three of the venues say the events at their sites are fake.
The rest of the day
7 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
New York moves to curb betting app harm
New York's State Gaming Commission, which licenses gambling in the state, voted unanimously on Friday to propose two rules for online sports betting apps.
[9] One would make the apps look into a user's finances when set warning signs appear, such as time on the app jumping by half in a week.[9] The other would bar the apps from using AI to tailor bonuses and bets.[9] The public now has 60 days to comment before a final vote.[9] Why it matters — New York is the largest US sports betting market. The rules follow a test by ProPublica, a US investigative newsroom. Its reporter lost $1,800 in one night chasing losses, and the next day DraftKings, a big betting app, invited him to try out for its VIP programme.
[9] [11] A 2024 Connecticut study found that 1.8% of problem gamblers there made up 51% of sports betting revenue.[10] -
03
UK lenders expect more missed card payments
British banks and building societies told the Bank of England that more credit card loans went unpaid in the three months to August.
[12] They expect the number to rise again by the end of November.[12] The Financial Conduct Authority, Britain's financial regulator, warned that some unregulated firms gather struggling people's details through cold calls and adverts, and pass them to firms that sell paid debt help.[13] Some people are steered into plans that charge fees, such as Individual Voluntary Arrangements, a formal deal to repay part of a debt over several years.[13] Why it matters — More people behind on cards could mean more demand for debt help, the BBC reports.
[13] Debt charities such as StepChange give advice for free, while the paid plans take fees from people who are already short of money.[13] -
04
Roofing tops Britain's scam complaints
Citizens Advice, a UK charity that helps people with money and legal problems, says roofing made up one in ten of all the scams it recorded in the past year, more than any other kind.
[14] Its consumer service had 9,000 complaints about roofing work in the year to August.[14] Of those, 2,205 were suspected scams, up from 2,098 the year before.[14] One woman of 65 was quoted 250 pounds to fix a gutter, then told more work was needed, and paid 3,500 pounds. The next day she could see no work done.[14] 1 of 4
about one roofing complaint in four was a suspected scam
Of about 9,000 roofing complaints to Citizens Advice in a year, 2,205 were suspected scams. Why it matters — Clare Moriarty, who runs Citizens Advice, said scammers pick roofs because owners cannot easily climb up and check the work.
[14] Three in four of the fraudsters used doorstep selling, and both victims named in the BBC's report were in their sixties.[14] -
05
Fake Halloween events sold tickets across Britain
A website called Halloween Nights Fear sold tickets to nine 'scarefest' events in England, Scotland and Wales, set for 20 October to 1 November.
[15] Tickets cost 14 to 140 pounds.[15] Cardiff Castle, Bradgate Park in Leicestershire and the body that runs London's buses and trains said the events listed at their sites are fake.[15] Leicestershire Trading Standards, the council team that enforces shopping law, has asked for the site to be taken down.[15] Why it matters — Bradgate Park's director said he knew of a number of people who had already bought tickets to its fake event.
[15] A technology journalist, David McClelland, said the site was among the most convincing fakes he had seen, and was probably built with AI.[15] -
06
US asking prices fall for an 11th month
The typical asking price for a US home was $419,250 in September, 1.4% lower than a year earlier, said Realtor.com, a property listings website.
[16] It was the 11th month in a row that asking prices were down on the year before.[16] In a survey by Neighbors Bank, a US lender, 40% of people buying their first home said a price cut would most help them go ahead.[16] Seven in ten said today's loan rates make every option feel out of reach.[16] Why it matters — First-time buyers are pushing back: 86% said they were comfortable offering less than the asking price, and 57% had walked away from a home.
[16] Lower asking prices help them, while the loan rates in the lead story work against them. -
07
Hargreaves Lansdown's top cashback needs millions
Hargreaves Lansdown, one of Britain's biggest investment platforms, is paying cashback to customers who move money into its accounts between 1 October and 30 November.
[17] The top payment is 40,000 pounds.[17] Which?, a UK consumer group, worked out that it needs 1 million pounds in each of four accounts.[17] Cashback is worked out on what is still there on 30 September 2027, and at least 10,000 pounds must remain to get anything.[17] 40,000 poundsTop cashback4m poundsMoney needed for itThe headline payment needs a hundred times as much money moved in, spread across four accounts. Why it matters — Few savers have 4 million pounds to move, so most will get a much smaller sum.
[17] Which? warns that higher yearly fees on a platform can outweigh a one-off payment.[17] -
08
Diesel squeezes a cancer patients' charity
Daft as a Brush, a Newcastle charity that drives cancer patients to hospital, spends 15,000 pounds a month on diesel, 5,000 more than a year ago.
[18] Its 30 vans cover 600,000 miles a year.[18] It had planned to switch them to electric, but says the fuel bill now takes that money.[18] In Middlesbrough, Teesside Minibus Hire signed contracts lasting years, priced on what fuel cost when they were written.[18] A year ago10,000 poundsNow15,000 poundsDaft as a Brush's diesel bill for one month. Why it matters — UK diesel recently passed 2 pounds a litre for the first time, the RAC motoring group says.
[18] The charity pays from donations with no discount, and the minibus firm says some customers are moving to cheaper unlicensed operators.[18]
When the person who finds the fault also gets paid to fix it
When an owner cannot check a problem, the person who says what is wrong can earn more by finding more wrong.
The twist
The trouble starts when one person both says what is wrong and gets paid to fix it. The owner cannot check, so finding more faults pays.
The picture
How it works
- Some faults are hidden from the owner: a roof, a debt, a betting habit
- So the owner leans on someone else to say what is needed
- That someone is often the one paid to fix it
- Every extra fault found is extra money for them
- The owner cannot tell a real fault from an invented one
- An outside check, or advice from someone not paid for the fix, breaks the link
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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Roofing scams in Britain
Traders quoted 250 pounds for a gutter, then 'found another problem' on a roof the owner could not see, and took 3,500 pounds.
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Paid debt plans
Firms that collect struggling people's details pass them to companies paid by fee-charging plans, so the plan put forward is one that earns money for them.
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New York's betting rules
Betting apps decide for themselves which users look at risk, though heavy losers bring in much of their money. New York's rule would set the warning signs from outside.
Where you've seen this
Car repairs
the garage that checks the brakes also charges to replace them
Medical scans
a private clinic paid per scan suggests how many scans a patient needs
Advice paid by commission
an adviser earns more from one savings product than another, and recommends one of them
The catch
Most tradespeople and advisers are honest. The pattern shows where the pull is, and a second opinion from someone who will not do the work takes most of it away.
And the whole of it
A homeowner, a person in debt and a gambler all rely on someone else to tell them what they need, and that someone is often paid by what they say. Almost everyone is in the owner's seat for something, from a boiler to a pension, and sees only the quote.
What is really going on
The US home lenders' group expects home loan rates to stay above 7% until the end of 2027, because the Iran war has kept prices rising and the US central bank is expected to raise its rate twice more.
Why it works on us — A top figure like 40,000 pounds of cashback sticks in the mind, even though it needs 4 million pounds moved in and almost nobody can reach it.
Who gains
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US savers holding cash
— Higher rates mean cash accounts now pay in the mid-3% range, and annuities, which turn savings into a fixed yearly income, pay more for the same sum.
[8] -
US first-time buyers who can still borrow
— Asking prices have fallen for 11 months, and 86% of first-time buyers say they are comfortable offering less than sellers ask.
[16] -
Firms selling fee-charging debt plans
— Unregulated firms pass them the details of struggling people gathered through cold calls and adverts, and more people are falling behind on cards.
[12] [13] -
Savers with millions to move
— Hargreaves Lansdown's top cashback of 40,000 pounds goes only to customers who put 1 million pounds into each of four accounts.
[17] -
Sports betting apps
— A 2024 Connecticut study found that 1.8% of the state's problem gamblers brought in 51% of what sports betting firms earned there.
[10]
Who pays
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US families buying a home
— At a 7.53% rate the loan payment on a typical home is $2,407 a month, about 27% of a typical family's income.
[3] -
US home lenders and their staff
— The MBA expects 5% less lending in 2027 and 17% less refinancing, after the monthly lending of PennyMac, a big US home lender, fell by about 28% this summer.
[1] [5] -
Homeowners who cannot check their own roof
— Three in four roofing fraudsters used doorstep selling, and one 65-year-old paid 3,500 pounds for work she never saw done.
[14] -
Donors to Daft as a Brush
— Their money now pays 5,000 pounds a month more for diesel instead of the electric vans the charity planned to buy.
[18] -
Buyers of fake Halloween tickets
— They paid 14 to 140 pounds for events that venues say are not taking place.
[15] -
People betting compulsively in New York
— A reporter put $21,600 into DraftKings in under eight weeks while betting like a problem gambler, and no company review followed.
[9]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
What the US home loan rate actually was last week.
Freddie Mac put the average at 7.40%, HousingWire, a US housing news site, put it at 7.5%, and Bankrate used 7.53%. Each survey counts different loans on different days, so we print all three.
[1] [2] [3] -
02
Whether the US central bank raises its rate again in December.
The MBA expects it to, but its own economist says a war or market shock could change the path, and oil could spike further.
[1] [2] -
03
Whether the US falls into recession.
Fratantoni puts the chance at about 35% within a year, and says much of today's spending rests on high share prices that could fall.
[2] -
04
How many British borrowers end up in fee-charging debt plans after a cold call or an advert.
The regulator's warning describes the practice but gives no count of the people caught by it.
[13] -
05
How much roofing fraud is never reported.
The 2,205 suspected scams are only the cases people brought to Citizens Advice; victims who did not complain are not in the count.
[14] -
06
How many people bought tickets to the fake Halloween events, and whether their banks will refund them.
Bradgate Park knows of a number of buyers, but nobody has published a total, and the site's owners have not answered.
[15] -
07
What New York's betting rules will look like when they are final.
There are 60 days of public comment first, and the betting companies' trade group has already asked for changes.
[9] -
08
How much cashback Hargreaves Lansdown's customers will receive on average.
No average payment has been published; Which? worked out only the top payment and a few examples.
[17]
New York's gambling regulator voted unanimously on Friday to propose rules that would make betting apps look into users who show set warning signs, and bar the apps from using AI to tailor bonuses.
Also true today
- Daft as a Brush's 30 vans drive cancer patients in north-east England 600,000 miles a year to their hospital appointments.
- Leicestershire Trading Standards has asked for the fake Halloween ticket website to be taken down.
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