Space · Monday, 26 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

The US Space Force gives SpaceX its sharpest satellite-tracking data, while the civilian traffic office built for that job fights for its budget

SpaceX is the first company allowed into the most detailed military list of objects in orbit, swapping its own camera data in return. The civilian system meant to warn satellite operators about crashes lost staff in 2025 and has twice faced cuts to its $65m budget.

10 cm vs 50 cm

the smallest object the military's list follows, against the smallest SpaceX's own Stargaze can see

Stargaze is also less accurate; a SpaceX worker told an industry meeting the radar data is extremely valuable [1]

$65m

a year: the budget of TraCSS, the civilian US system for warning satellite operators

the Trump administration has tried to cut it twice; lawmakers put it back each time [1]

11,000

Starlink satellites in orbit today, out of roughly 16,000 working satellites

Starlink could grow to as many as 20,000 [1]; the European Space Agency counts about 16,000 working satellites in all [2]

57,000

pieces of junk larger than 10 cm circling Earth out of control

double the count of less than ten years ago, by the European Space Agency's estimate [3]

The lead story — what happened

The US Space Force has given SpaceX special access to the most detailed version of its list of objects in orbit, The Guardian reported on Sunday. [1]
It is the first time a company has been given this level of access to the list. [1]
The list is built from military radars and telescopes on the ground, and it follows objects in low orbit down to about 10 cm across. [1]
SpaceX uses it alongside Stargaze, its own tracking system of cameras and radars on Starlink satellites, which sees objects only down to about half a metre, and less accurately. [1]
In return the military gets observations from Stargaze. [1] A Space Force spokesperson said it is making swaps like this with several companies, without naming them. [1]
The military has kept this data close because it could expose the limits of US defences. [1]
The civilian job of warning satellite operators about crashes was meant to move to TraCSS, a US system set up in Trump's first term to take it over from the military. [1]
In 2025 DOGE, Musk's cost-cutting team in the US government, fired many TraCSS staff. [1] The Trump administration then tried to cut most of its $65m budget for 2026, and the US Congress put the money back. [1]
The Trump administration has proposed cutting TraCSS to nearly zero for 2027, and the US House of Representatives has put the money back again. [1]
Cole Donovan, a former TraCSS worker, says the deal makes SpaceX the de facto source for space traffic coordination in the US. [1]
A former official at NOAA, the US weather and oceans agency, told The Guardian that SpaceX has been responsive on safety, and blamed the US government for failing to set clear rules. [1]
Starlink flies about 11,000 satellites [1], out of roughly 16,000 working satellites in orbit, by the European Space Agency's count. [2]
More than 57,000 pieces of junk larger than 10 cm circle Earth out of control, double the count of less than ten years ago, the European Space Agency estimates. [3]
Experts quoted by The Verge last week said SpaceX holds a monopoly on launches in practice, though not in law. [4]

16,000Working satellites now

60,000Expected by 2035

The number of working satellites in orbit today, and the number one forecast expects by 2035. More satellites mean more close passes to warn about.

Who is involved

SpaceX

the US rocket company that runs Starlink, the biggest fleet of satellites in orbit; it gets the military's sharpest tracking data
US Space Force

the branch of the US military in charge of space; it keeps the list and signed the deal
TraCSS

a civilian US system meant to warn all satellite operators about crashes; short of staff and money
Cole Donovan

a former TraCSS worker, now with the group Stand Up for Science; he says the deal hands SpaceX the job
Craig Holman

a lobbyist for Public Citizen, a group that watches government ethics; he calls the access a reward for a donor

How it unfolded

2017-21 Trump's first administration sets up TraCSS to take civilian space traffic from the military [1]
2025 DOGE fires many TraCSS staff [1]
2026 budget the administration tries to cut most of TraCSS's $65m; Congress puts it back [1]
2027 budget a cut to nearly zero is proposed; the House puts the money back [1]
25 Oct The Guardian reports SpaceX's access to the military's list [1]

Where this points

The next decision is the final US budget for 2027: the House has put TraCSS's money back, while the Trump administration wants it cut to nearly zero. [1]

Signals on this beat

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.

SpaceX getting bigger High↑

The US Space Force gave SpaceX its sharpest list of objects in orbit, a first for any company. [1] SpaceX and NASA also applied to grow its Starship site in Florida from 167 acres to nearly 400. [5]

Too many objects to follow Building↑

About 16,000 working satellites fly today, and one forecast expects close to 60,000 by 2035. [2] The Rubin Observatory, a new survey telescope, is expected to find tens of thousands of new small worlds that will need measuring. [8]

Need for sharper measurements Building↑

Military radars follow objects down to 10 cm, five times smaller than SpaceX's own cameras can see. [1] Brightness alone can leave an asteroid's size unsure by up to ten times, so a team in Arizona is building a cheap tool to narrow it. [8]

The rest of the day

2 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
SpaceX plans a bigger Starship site in Florida

SpaceX ran a static fire, a test firing a rocket's engines while it is held down, at Starbase in Texas on Sunday. [5] It is readying Flight 15, the next test of its giant reusable rocket, for November. [5] On that flight it plans to try to catch both the booster and the upper stage with its tower for the first time. [6][9] SpaceX and NASA have also filed a draft plan to grow its Roberts Road site in Florida from 167 acres to nearly 400. [5] It still needs public comment and approval. [5]

167 acresRoberts Road today
about 400 acresPlanned
The size of SpaceX's Starship site near Kennedy Space Center now, and in the plan SpaceX and NASA have filed.

Why it matters — The first Starship launch from Florida, Flight 16, could come in late January if the booster and ship meant for it finish testing in time. [5] Florida has no stand for test-firing ships yet, so each ship must be finished in Texas and sent by barge. [5]
03
Members pay for three asteroid projects

The Planetary Society, a public group that backs space science, introduced the three winners of its 2026 STEP Grants on 21 October. [8] The grants come every two years and are paid for entirely by its members. [8] All three study small worlds such as asteroids and the icy bodies beyond Neptune. [8][10] A team at Lowell Observatory in Arizona is building a cheap polarimeter, a tool that reads how light is lined up after it bounces off an asteroid. [8] It uses off-the-shelf lenses and 3D-printed parts, so other observatories and skilled amateurs can copy it. [8]

A 10 m rockburns up
A 100 m rockcould wreck a city
Two asteroids can look equally bright from Earth. Telling these two apart is what the new polarimeter is for.

Why it matters — Brightness alone can leave an asteroid's size unsure by up to ten times, the gap between a 10 m rock that burns up in the air and a 100 m one that could wreck a city. [8] The other two grants grow AsteroidDB, a shared store of over 15 million brightness readings, and CORA, which predicts when an asteroid will pass in front of a star. [8]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why better tracking means satellites swerve less often

Nobody knows a satellite's exact position, only a small region it is probably in, and the smaller that region, the fewer false crash warnings.

The twist

Many warnings of a crash in orbit come from not knowing exactly where things are, not from things being close. Sharper tracking makes those warnings go away without moving any satellite.

The picture

10 cmMilitary radar

50 cmSpaceX's Stargaze

The smallest object each system can see. The military's radar data is also more accurate, so the region around each object is smaller.

How it works

Radars and cameras measure where each object is, with some error
So we only know a small region each object is probably in
A warning goes out when two of those regions might overlap
Wide regions overlap often, so many warnings turn out to be false
Each warning can cost a satellite a move and some of its fuel
Sharper data shrinks the regions, and the false warnings drop

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

The asteroid projects members paid for

Brightness gives an asteroid's size only within a range ten times wide, so the polarimeter narrows that range before anyone has to decide whether a rock is harmless.

Where you've seen this

The map on a phone

the circle around your dot is the region you are probably in, and it shrinks when the phone hears more satellites

Air traffic control

planes are kept further apart where radar knows their positions less well

Weather forecasts

a storm's possible path is drawn as a cone that narrows as the data gets better

The catch

Sharper data only helps an object that can move: a dead satellite or a piece of junk cannot swerve, however well it is tracked.

And the whole of it

Every company with a satellite, and everyone whose phone map or weather forecast relies on one, depends on a few lists of where things are in orbit. Each operator knows its own satellites well and everyone else's only through someone else's list.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

The US government set up a civilian system, TraCSS, to warn every satellite operator about crashes, then fired many of its staff and tried twice to cut its money. Now the US Space Force is handing its sharpest tracking data to SpaceX, which flies the biggest fleet in orbit and tracks other satellites with its own cameras. [1]

Who gains

SpaceX — It adds military radar data on objects down to 10 cm to its own cameras, which see only down to about half a metre. [1]
The US Space Force — It gets observations from Stargaze, the cameras and radars on Starlink satellites, in return for its data. [1]
SpaceX's Starship programme — If the plan is approved, its site near Kennedy Space Center grows from 167 acres to nearly 400, with room for test stands. [5]
Small observatories and skilled amateurs — Lowell Observatory is designing its polarimeter from off-the-shelf lenses and 3D-printed parts so others can build their own. [8]

Who pays

Companies that sell their own crash warnings — The Guardian says the access gives Musk's companies an advantage over rivals offering a similar service. [1]
TraCSS staff — Many were fired by DOGE, Musk's cost-cutting team, in 2025. [1]
Members of the Planetary Society — The STEP Grants are paid for entirely by members. [8]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

What exactly SpaceX gives and gets under the deal.

Neither SpaceX nor the Space Force answered The Guardian, and no terms beyond the swap of data have been reported. [1]
02

Which other companies, if any, get the same access.

The Space Force says it is talking to several companies but has named none of them. [1]
03

Whether TraCSS still has a budget in 2027.

The House has put its money back, the Trump administration wants it near zero, and the final budget has not passed. [1]
04

Whether sharing the list shows other countries what US sensors cannot see.

The military held the data back for exactly that reason, and no public assessment of the risk has been released. [1]
05

Whether US regulators will let both Starship stages fly back over land to be caught.

SpaceX's president says she expects the licence for Flight 15 to include it, but the US aviation regulator has not issued it. [7]
06

When the first Starship launches from Florida.

NASASpaceflight says it could be late January, depending on the ship meant for it passing a test firing expected in mid-December. [5]
07

Whether the bigger Starship site in Florida is approved.

The plan is a draft environmental review that must go through public comment before any decision. [5]
08

How big the asteroids the Rubin Observatory finds really are.

Brightness alone leaves size unsure by up to ten times, and the cheap polarimeter meant to help has not been built yet. [8]

04 Hope carry this

Members of the Planetary Society, a public group that backs space science, are paying for three new projects to measure asteroids. One is a cheap tool, built from off-the-shelf lenses and 3D-printed parts, that observatories and skilled amateurs anywhere can copy.