An independent re-check finds the same ring in the first picture of a black hole

The stories

16 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   An independent re-check finds the same ring in the first picture of a black hole

   42.2

   microarcseconds across the black hole's ring, in the new picture

   the network sees detail like a hair from more than 1,000 km away [1]

   6.5 billion

   times our Sun's mass, the black hole's weight from the ring

   earlier estimates ran from 3 to 7 billion [1]

   3

   telescopes combined at a time in the new method, instead of 2

   which cancels errors from the air and from each telescope [3]

   What happened

   • An independent team has checked the first picture ever taken of a black hole, and found the ring again. [2]
   • The black hole sits at the centre of a galaxy called M87. [2]
   • Nithyanandan Thyagarajan of CSIRO in Australia and his colleagues did the new check. [3]
   • The first picture came out in 2019, and the re-check was published in Nature on 11 November. [2]
   • The Event Horizon Telescope joins radio telescopes on several continents into one dish as wide as Earth. [2]
   • That lets it see detail as fine as a hair seen from more than 1,000 km away. [1]
   • The network has only a handful of telescopes, which leaves big gaps in its data. [3] A computer program fills the gaps to make the picture. [3]
   • "It also observes at very short radio wavelengths, where the atmosphere can distort the signal," Thyagarajan says. [3]
   • In 2022, a team led by Junichiro Makino of Kobe University in Japan got a different result. [2]
   • Using slightly different assumptions, their image showed a blob of radio light, not a ring. [2]
   • The new team combined the telescopes 3 at a time, instead of the usual 2. [3]
   • They also trained their computer program on pictures that are not of black holes. [3] That was to cut bias from the team's own expectations. [3]
   • Their picture came out nearly the same as the 2019 one. [3]
   • The ring measures 42.2 microarcseconds across, a tiny angle in the sky. [1]
   • Earlier estimates put the black hole at 3 to 7 billion times our Sun's mass. [1] The new ring gives about 6.5 billion. [1]

   Who is involved

   • Nithyanandan Thyagarajan an astronomer at CSIRO in Australia; he and his colleagues did the new check
   • Junichiro Makino an astrophysicist at Kobe University in Japan; his team questioned the ring from 2022
   • The Event Horizon Telescope an international network of radio telescopes that took the 2019 picture

   How it unfolded

   1. 2019 the first picture of a black hole's shadow [2]
   2. 11 Nov the re-check, in Nature
   3. 2022 Makino's team publishes a blob, not a ring [2]
   4. 11 Nov a new method finds the ring again [2]

   Why it matters

   The ring is the shadow Einstein's general relativity predicts, made by gravity bending light. [3]

   Seeing that ring was one of the strongest signs that Einstein's theory is right. [3] The re-check backs it. [3]

   How it works

   Radio astronomers call measurements like these closure invariants: numbers a telescope's own errors cannot change. [1]

   Each telescope adds its own errors, from its air and its equipment. [3] Combined in threes, those errors cancel and the shape stays. [3]

   Seen it before

   A watch set wrong still times a race right, because the same error sits in the start and the finish.

   Why an early cost estimate is a wide guess that narrows as the work gets real

   Project managers call it the cone of uncertainty: a cost guessed before the design exists is a wide range, and it narrows as the work is done.

   The twist

   An early price for a big project is a wide range, not one number. Only designing, building and testing the thing makes that range narrow.

   The picture

   Review saying home by 2035$8 billion

   Review saying home by 2040$11 billion

   Step by step

   1. 1 Before a design exists, many parts are guesses
   2. 2 So an early cost is a wide range, not one number
   3. 3 Each design step and test swaps a guess for a fact
   4. 4 The range narrows, and the answer can land high or low

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • NASA starts again on Mars samples

     No design is chosen yet, so two reviews of the same mission gave $8 billion and $11 billion, and the new team must narrow it.

   • Roman telescope beats its targets

     Roman is built and flying, so its fuel is now measured instead of planned: 12 more years than its 10-year design.

   • The black hole ring re-check

     The black hole's mass was given as 3 to 7 billion Suns, and measuring the ring narrows it to about 6.5 billion.

   Where you've seen this

   Building a house

   a builder's first quote before the ground is dug is often far from the final bill

   Writing software

   early guesses of how long an app takes are wide until its features are designed

   Weather forecasts

   a forecast for next week is a wide range that narrows as the day comes closer

   The catch

   The range only narrows when the work really tests the hard parts. A project can look nearly finished and still have much work left, as Isaacman says of NASA's half-built launch tower.

   And the whole of it

   Taxpayers, scientists waiting for Mars samples and companies bidding for Moon work all decide early, from the wide end of the range. Most of us make choices about a house, a course or a job the same way, at the start, when the range is widest.

   The truth

   • What is really going on A team at CSIRO in Australia re-processed the Event Horizon Telescope's data with a new method and got the ring again. [3]That largely backs the 2019 picture against a Japanese team's 2022 doubts. [2]
   • Why it works on people A sharp picture feels like proof, even though this one was partly filled in by a computer program, which is why a second method mattered. [3]
   • The re-check used the telescopes' existing data with an entirely new way of processing it. [3]
   • Who gains The Event Horizon Telescope team — Its 2019 picture now has an independent check that largely backs it. [2]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Makino's team accepts the ring now.

     Their 2022 blob came from slightly different assumptions, and the new paper tests a different method rather than repeating theirs. [2][3]

   Good news

   • An independent team checked the first picture of a black hole with a new method, and the ring was still there.

1. 02

   NASA starts again on Mars samples

   What happened

   • NASA has started a new plan to bring home rock samples the Perseverance rover is collecting on Mars. [4]
   • Tiffany Morgan, who runs NASA's Mars Exploration Program, described it at a scientists' meeting on 9 November. [4]
   • The plan is called the Perseverance Sample Retrieval Architecture. [4] Its team will review past lessons and weigh the options. [4]

   Who is involved

   • Tiffany Morgan head of NASA's Mars Exploration Program

   How it unfolded

   Perseverance has been collecting and sealing samples in Jezero Crater since it landed in February 2021. [4]

   One review priced a return at about $11 billion, with samples home in 2040. [4] Another said about $8 billion, home by 2035. [4]

   1. Feb 2021 Perseverance lands
   2. Now sealed samples wait on Mars
   3. Jan 2027 the team starts
   4. Winter 2027 to 2028 the final report

   Why it matters

   China plans its own sample return, Tianwen-3, to bring about 500 grams of Mars home in 2031. [4]

   Scientist Bruce Jakosky says samples could show which Martian dust and chemicals would harm astronauts. [4]

   How it works

   No design is chosen yet, so two reviews of the same mission gave $8 billion and $11 billion, and the new team must narrow it.

   The idea, in story 01: Why an early cost estimate is a wide guess that narrows as the work gets real →

   The truth

   • What is really going on At NASA the day was about money: Isaacman stopped a half-built launch tower, and a new team will plan the Mars sample return with its cost undecided. [5][4]
   • How the new team will deal with the cost is still undecided, Space.com reports. [4]
   • Who pays Scientists waiting for Mars samples — The samples stay on Mars while a new team works out a plan, reporting in the winter of 2027 to 2028. [4]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much bringing the Mars samples home will cost, and when they arrive.

     Past reviews gave about $11 billion by 2040 and about $8 billion by 2035, and the new team does not report until the winter of 2027 to 2028. [4]

   What comes next

   The team starts work in January 2027 and gives its final report in the winter of 2027 to 2028. [4]

2. 03

   NASA stops its second Moon rocket tower

   What happened

   • NASA chief Jared Isaacman explained why work on a second launch tower for its Moon rocket has stopped. [5]
   • The tower, Mobile Launcher 2, was meant for NASA's giant Space Launch System rocket, called SLS. [5]
   • "If you're going to launch even on an eight-month cadence, you do not need the second mobile launcher," he said. [5]
   • He said the half-built tower was nowhere near as ready as people believed. [5]
   • Some of its parts now help Blue Origin, a rocket company, rebuild its launch pad and build landers. [5]
   • NASA has also dropped a new top stage for SLS, and will stretch an existing one, Centaur V. [5]

   Who is involved

   • SLS NASA's Moon rocket
   • Mobile Launcher 2 its second tower
   • Blue Origin gets parts for its pad and landers

   How it unfolded

   Centaur V first flew on Vulcan, a rocket built by United Launch Alliance, in January 2024. [5]

   1. Jan 2024 Centaur V first flies, on Vulcan
   2. Later a stretched version for SLS

   Why it matters

   Isaacman wants crews flying at least once a year, and possibly 2 launches in 2028. [5]

   He says companies offered no complete Moon transport ready for 2028 or 2029. [5] Orion is likely to stay into the 2030s. [5]

   How it works

   Economists call a cost that stays the same however often a thing is used a fixed cost.

   Isaacman says flying SLS more often is one way to shake its label as a $4 billion throwaway rocket. [5]

   Seen it before

   A bus pass costs the same each month, so every extra ride makes each trip cheaper.

   The truth

   • Who gains Blue Origin — It received parts from the stopped tower and a cancelled rocket stage, to help rebuild its pad and build landers. [5]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Which Artemis flight first uses the stretched Centaur V.

     NASA says both it and the last remaining older upper stage are still options for Artemis IV. [5]

3. 04

   A satellite that tracks others in the dark

   What happened

   • Anduril, a US defence technology company, says its first satellite can track other spacecraft in Earth's shadow. [6]
   • Anduril has tested 3 new satellite payloads in orbit, including the infrared sensor, SpaceNews reports. [20]
   • The oven-sized satellite, Anduril-216, launched on a shared SpaceX ride in July. [6]
   • It flies about 590 km up and spends about a third of each orbit in darkness. [6]
   • Trackers using sunlight can lose a spacecraft that moves while it is in Earth's shadow. [6]
   • The new sensor sees long-wave infrared, the heat a spacecraft gives off, so it works in full dark. [6]
   • Anduril plans to sell the tracking data to the US military, not the satellites themselves. [6]

   How it unfolded

   1. July Anduril-216 launches
   2. Tuesday Anduril reports the test worked

   Why it matters

   The US Space Force tracks satellites to spot threatening moves and to warn operators of crashes. [6]

   How it works

   Physicists call the heat glow every warm object gives off thermal infrared, and it needs no sunlight.

   A working spacecraft is warm even in Earth's shadow, so its heat shows up to the sensor. [6]

   Seen it before

   A heat camera can pick out a warm cup of tea in a completely dark room.

   The truth

   • So far Anduril has released a single image from the sensor, of the Moon above Earth's edge. [6]
   • Who gains Anduril — It plans to sell tracking data from its satellite to the US military. [6]
   • Who pays Satellite operators that move in Earth's shadow — Anduril's heat sensor is built to see moves they make in Earth's shadow. [6]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How well Anduril's heat sensor tracks satellites.

     Anduril has released one image from it, of the Moon above Earth's edge. [6]

4. 05

   Roman telescope beats its targets

   What happened

   • NASA's Roman Space Telescope could take pictures about 30% sharper than its engineers predicted. [7]
   • Roman is a $4 billion telescope that launched on 30 August on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket. [7]
   • It is 85% of the way to its spot, 1.6 million km from Earth. [7] It arrives in under 2 weeks. [7]
   • In September, NASA said near-perfect engine burns after launch had each saved up to 4 years of fuel. [7]
   • With those savings and extra fuel loaded before launch, Roman has 12 more years of fuel. [7] That more than doubles its planned 10-year life. [7]
   • Its main camera has 288 megapixels and can gather data up to 1,000 times faster than Hubble. [7]

   How it unfolded

   1. 30 Aug Roman launches
   2. Within 2 weeks Roman reaches its spot

   Why it matters

   Roman is expected to find about 100,000 new planets around other stars. [7]

   How it works

   Engineers plan a spacecraft's weight as a budget, and the rocket's lift sets the limit for craft and fuel together.

   Roman came in lighter than budgeted, so its fuel tanks were filled to the top, not just to need. [7]

   Seen it before

   A suitcase under its weight limit leaves room to pack a few extra things.

   Roman is built and flying, so its fuel is now measured instead of planned: 12 more years than its 10-year design.

   The idea, in story 01: Why an early cost estimate is a wide guess that narrows as the work gets real →

   Good news

   • Switching on its instruments has gone without a hitch so far, Live Science reports. [7]
5. 06

   Starship's 22-hour test is set for Friday

   What happened

   • SpaceX plans to launch Starship Flight 15 from Texas on Friday 13 November, in a window opening at 22:45 GMT. [8]
   • Starship is SpaceX's giant rocket: a booster called Super Heavy, with an upper stage on top. [9]
   • The plan is about 14 loops of Earth, about 275 km up, over more than 22 hours. [8]
   • The booster should come back to the launch tower about 6.5 minutes after liftoff. [8]
   • The upper stage would come back on Saturday 14 November. [8] No upper stage has come back to Starbase before. [9]
   • It will carry 26 Starlink V3 internet satellites and release them in the first 90 minutes. [8]
   • SpaceX says the stage comes home only if its re-entry and landing systems are healthy. [8]

   Who is involved

   • Super Heavy the booster
   • Starship the upper stage

   How it unfolded

   1. Friday launch and booster catch
   2. Saturday the upper stage comes home

   Why it matters

   A full catch would be the first full recovery of a rocket that reached orbit, SpaceX says. [8]

   The truth

   • Space.com says Flight 14 ended early after 2 orbits, as a safety step. [8] New Scientist says it never finished 1 full orbit. [9]
   • On 6 November, NASASpaceflight said the ship's return still needed a changed licence from the US aviation regulator. [10]
   • Who pays People in northern Mexico and southern Texas — They may hear sonic booms as Starship's upper stage flies home, SpaceX says. [9]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US aviation regulator has cleared Starship's upper stage to fly home over land.

     On 6 November the return still needed a changed licence, and the launch is set for Friday. [10][8]

   • Nobody knows yet

     How far Starship Flight 14 got in September.

     Space.com says it ended after 2 orbits as a safety step, while New Scientist says it never finished 1 full orbit. [8][9]

6. 07

   How NASA is buying its Moon base

   What happened

   • NASA put out 5 calls for Moon contracts in 7 days, says Mike Gold, president of Redwire Space. [11]
   • Gold is a lawyer and a former senior NASA official. [11]
   • NASA now asks companies what they can do, instead of telling them exactly what to build. [11]
   • Companies first send a short paper. [11] They write a full proposal only if NASA picks their idea. [11]
   • Some money comes from the cancelled Gateway station, including $2.6 billion from a 2025 law. [11]

   Who is involved

   • Mike Gold president of Redwire Space

   Why it matters

   Isaacman says missions of about $200 million can be added or dropped without risking the whole programme. [11] The yearly budget is about $25 billion. [11]

   How it works

   Buyers call a short first round a down-select: many cheap pitches, then full bids only from those chosen.

   Redwire spent most of its effort only on the bids NASA wanted, Gold said. [11] Those include solar panels that roll out on the Moon. [11]

   Seen it before

   A school play holds short auditions first, and only the people called back learn the whole script.

   The truth

   • Some companies NASA is buying from have hardware that does not work yet, or exists only as designs. [11]
   • Who gains Redwire Space — The short first round let it spend effort only on bids NASA wanted, Mike Gold said. [11]
7. 08

   Senators set a vote on NASA's money posts

   What happened

   • A US Senate committee will vote on 18 November on two people chosen for top NASA jobs. [12]
   • Joshua Shoemaker, an accountant, is nominated as NASA's chief financial officer. [12]
   • Robert Steinau is nominated as inspector general, and has worked in that office since 2009. [12]
   • At their hearing on 10 November, senators asked them few questions. [12]
   • Steinau named three big tasks: the Moon, moving off the space station, and cybersecurity. [12]

   Who is involved

   • Joshua Shoemaker nominee, chief financial officer
   • Robert Steinau nominee, inspector general

   How it unfolded

   NASA has had no Senate-confirmed finance chief since January 2025, and no confirmed inspector general since late 2023. [12]

   1. Late 2023 inspector general post empty
   2. Jan 2025 finance chief post empty
   3. 18 Nov committee vote
   4. After full Senate vote

   Why it matters

   Shoemaker said the job means telling the US Congress honestly how programmes compare with their budgets and schedules. [12]

   What comes next

   If the committee approves them, the full Senate then votes. [12]

8. 09

   SpaceX orders solar cells in Germany

   What happened

   • SpaceX has placed a 60 million euro order for solar cells with Singulus Technologies, a German machine maker. [13]
   • The cells are for Starmind, planned SpaceX satellites meant to work as AI data centres in space. [13]
   • Singulus makes a kind of solar cell well suited to space, Business Insider reported. [13]
   • The order is bigger than Singulus's whole 2025 revenue, which was 48.3 million euros. [13]
   • The cells go to a SpaceX satellite factory in Texas in early 2027. [13]
   • Each Starmind satellite is planned with solar wings 75 m long. [13]

   Why it matters

   About 15,000 satellites exist today, and Starlink accounts for 9,500 of them. [13]

   The truth

   • Musk's filing talks of 1 million satellites, which Euronews calls unlikely. [13] The technology has not proven itself. [13]
   • Who gains Singulus Technologies — SpaceX's 60 million euro order is bigger than its whole 2025 revenue. [13]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Starmind satellites will ever fly in large numbers.

     Euronews calls the 1 million figure unlikely and says the technology has not proven itself. [13]

9. 10

   A hidden heavy object pulls on a star

   What happened

   • Astronomers have found an unseen object pulling on a red giant star in the constellation Pisces. [14]
   • The system, J0008+0128, turned up in data from China's LAMOST telescope, the APOGEE survey and Europe's Gaia. [14]
   • The hidden object makes the star wobble. [14] After ruling out many options, the team says it is most likely a neutron star. [14]
   • A neutron star is the crushed core left after a big star explodes: a city-sized ball of neutrons. [14]
   • Most weigh about 1.4 times our Sun. [14] This one is 1.8 to 2.8, with a best guess of 2.2. [14]
   • Its orbit is too wide for it to have grown by taking gas from the giant, says Scott Ransom. [14]
   • The study was published on 11 November in Science Advances. [14]

   Who is involved

   • LAMOST Chinese telescope
   • APOGEE star survey
   • Gaia European space observatory
   • Scott Ransom astronomer, not on the study

   Why it matters

   If it is a neutron star, they can grow bigger than thought, or two dead stars merged to make it. [14]

   The truth

   • Ransom thinks a very small black hole is more likely, because the orbit is nearly round. [14]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What the hidden object in J0008+0128 really is.

     Radio telescopes have found no pulses, and Scott Ransom says an X-ray look may be the only clear test left. [14]

10. 11

    A star keeps faking its own death

    What happened

    • A star called AT 2016blu flares up about every 113 days, which no exploding star can do. [15]
    • It is about 33 times the mass of our Sun, in a galaxy about 30 million light years away. [15]
    • A supernova is the explosion that ends a big star's life. [15] Supernova searches kept catching this star, so astronomers call it an impostor. [15]
    • It flared 27 times between 2012 and June 2026. [15]
    • In March 2026, NASA's Chandra X-ray telescope watched it during a flare. [15]
    • It was 100 times brighter in X-rays than in 2001 to 2002. [15]
    • The team says a hidden partner, a neutron star or black hole, pulls gas off it on each close pass. [15]

    How it unfolded

    1. 2012 flares first logged
    2. March 2026 Chandra watches a flare

    Why it matters

    It is the first known star of its kind with a compact partner, the authors write. [15]

    How it works

    Astronomers call the closest point of an orbit periastron. [15]

    The pair's orbit is stretched, so the partner only comes close once a lap. [15] That is why the flares come on a schedule. [15]

    Seen it before

    A runner on an oval track passes the same person in the crowd once every lap.

11. 12

    Comets probably did not seed life

    What happened

    • A Cambridge team says comets almost certainly did not bring life's chemical building blocks to Earth. [16]
    • Richard Anslow and colleagues used computer models of comet paths, their fall through the air and their impacts. [16]
    • They tracked hydrogen cyanide, a molecule common in comets, as a stand-in for complex carbon molecules. [16]
    • To survive, such molecules need an impact slower than 15 km a second. [16]
    • Most comets hit faster and at too steep an angle, so the molecules are mostly vaporised. [16]
    • The work was published on 28 October in Scientific Reports. [16]

    Who is involved

    • Richard Anslow planetary scientist, University of Cambridge

    Why it matters

    Comets had been a prime suspect for over a century. [16]

    The truth

    • Anslow says they cannot rule it out, but call it "at best, a one-off fluke". [16]
12. 13

    A model says space mining could sink platinum

    What happened

    • Two MIT researchers modelled what happens to platinum prices if a company starts mining asteroids. [17]
    • Platinum and palladium go into car exhaust cleaners and hydrogen fuel cells. [17]
    • More than 80% of known reserves are in deep mines in South Africa and Russia. [17]
    • The model starts when a company like AstroForge, a California start-up, first brings metal back. [17]
    • In the model, profits first rise to 8 times today's. [17] Then prices fall by more than 75% over 15 years. [17]

    Who is involved

    • Cars exhaust cleaners
    • Hydrogen fuel cells

    How it unfolded

    1. First profits rise to 8 times today's
    2. Over 15 years prices fall by more than 75%

    Why it matters

    High-cost mines in North America would close first, then the big South African and Russian mines. [17]

    How it works

    Economists draw supply and demand as an X, and more supply moves the price down. [17]

    Platinum is dear because little is dug up. [17] A big new source from space would push its price down. [17]

    Seen it before

    When every shop suddenly stocks the toy everyone wanted, its price drops.

    The truth

    • Every number here comes from a computer model, and AstroForge has had a few high-profile failures. [17]
    • Who pays Platinum miners in South Africa and Russia — In the MIT model they cannot stay profitable once space metal drives prices down. [17]
13. 14

    A film tells the Beagle 2 story

    What happened

    • Actors Toby Jones and Emily Watson have finished filming Mars Express, about Britain's Beagle 2 lander. [18]
    • Jones plays Colin Pillinger, the scientist behind Beagle 2, and Watson plays his wife, Judith. [18]
    • Beagle 2 was due to land on Mars on 25 December 2003, but it sent no signal. [18]
    • In January 2015, NASA images showed it had landed safely, 8 months after Pillinger died. [18]
    • Mackenzie Crook directs, and it is his first feature film. [18]

    Who is involved

    • Colin Pillinger played by Toby Jones
    • Judith Pillinger played by Emily Watson
    • Mackenzie Crook director

    How it unfolded

    1. Dec 2003 Beagle 2 goes silent
    2. Jan 2015 NASA finds it landed

    Why it matters

    Beagle 2 was Britain's first spacecraft to land on Mars, built to search for life. [18]

14. 15

    Shuttle Endeavour's new home opens

    What happened

    • The Samuel Oschin Air and Space Center, home of space shuttle Endeavour, opens on Friday 13 November. [19]
    • Endeavour is shown there by the California Science Center. [19]
    • Visitors can rise above Endeavour onto a glass platform. [19]
    • A slide gives a pretend return from space in 15 seconds. [19]

    How it unfolded

    1. Fri 13 Nov the centre opens
    2. From then visitors see Endeavour

    Why it matters

    The centre calls it the world's only display of a space shuttle made of all real parts. [19]

15. 16

    NASA asks people to flash lights for Voyager

    What happened

    • NASA is asking people to flash lights at the sky for Voyager 1 after sunset on 17 November. [21]
    • Participants flash VGR, the mission's three-letter code, in Morse code, with a torch or on NASA's website. [21]
    • The event marks Voyager 1 becoming the first human-made object one light-day from Earth. [21]
    • A light-day is the distance light covers in a day: 25,902,068,356 km. [21]
    • NASA puts the crossing at 10:16:07 UTC on Wednesday 18 November. [21]
    • Voyager 1 travels at about 61,000 km an hour and turns 50 next year. [21]

    How it unfolded

    1. 17 Nov lights flashed after sunset
    2. 18 Nov Voyager 1 crosses one light-day

    Why it matters

    It is the most distant human-made object from Earth. [21] Voyager 2 is not expected to reach a light-day for 9 more years. [21]

    The truth

    • Voyager 1 cannot see the lights: its cameras were switched off decades ago, after the Pale Blue Dot picture. [21]