World News · Wednesday, 16 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

The US war on Iran has cost $38bn and left it short of missiles, two official reports say

The US defence department's independent auditor and the US Congress's budget office both published accounts of the war on Monday and Tuesday. They contradict what President Donald Trump has been saying for months, and between them they give the first official count of what the United States has spent, lost and cannot quickly replace.

$38bn

spent on the US war against Iran up to 1 August

Congress's budget office says it is still rising by up to $3bn a month [4]

5 years

to rebuild the US missile stockpile, on the budget office's reading

the US defence department's own auditor blames slow factories rather than a shortage of money [5][1]

Reaper armed drones destroyed, the largest single aircraft loss in the report

four F-15E fighters at about $30m each were lost too, three of them to friendly fire [2]

417

US military personnel wounded in Iranian attacks up to 30 June

eighteen died, and hundreds of buildings were damaged at bases in eight countries [2][6]

The lead story — what happened

The US defence department's inspector general -- its own independent auditor -- published its first report on the Iran war on Monday, and it says the fighting has left the US with "strategic inventory shortfalls" in advanced weapons. [1][3][6]
The same report names "industrial base bottlenecks": the factories cannot rebuild the missiles as fast as the war has been firing them. [1][7]
US President Donald Trump has said for months that American ammunition is "virtually unlimited" and called reporting on shortages fake news. [1]
The US spent more than $22bn on munitions alone between 28 February and 30 June. [1][2]
Congress's budget office put the whole war at $38bn to 1 August, rising by up to $3bn a month. [4][5]
That office says rebuilding the missile stockpile could take five years, and that the defence department refused to hand over its own figures. [5][4]
The report is the first official count of US aircraft losses: at least four F-15E fighters, one F-35, seven refuelling tankers and as many as 30 armed Reaper drones. [2]
Three of the four F-15E fighters, which cost about $30m each, were shot down by friendly fire over Kuwait on 1 March. [2]
Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan. [2][6]
The US navy's supply hub in Bahrain was hit, so supplies were rerouted through Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, on 14- to 18-day cycles. [6]
Eighteen US personnel died and 417 were wounded up to 30 June; 11 of the deaths were in Iranian attacks and seven in accidents. [2]
The budget office expects the war to add about half a percentage point to US inflation in early 2027, mostly because oil and gas are not moving through the Strait of Hormuz. [4]
Only 23% of Americans told a Reuters/Ipsos poll in early September that the US is in a stronger position against Iran than before the war started. [1]

Who is involved

The US defence department inspector general

the department's own independent auditor, whose job is to check the department without being run by it; it wrote Monday's report
The Congressional Budget Office

the US Congress's non-party bookkeeper, which prices what government decisions cost; it put the war at $38bn
Donald Trump

the US president, who has said for months that American ammunition is virtually unlimited
Pete Hegseth

the US defence secretary, who called reporting on the shortages untrue; a Republican congressman filed impeachment articles against him on Tuesday

How it unfolded

28 Feb the US and Israel attack Iran, and Iran begins striking US bases across the Gulf
1 Mar six US personnel are killed at Kuwait's Port Shuaiba; three F-15E fighters are shot down by friendly fire
30 Jun the period the report covers ends, with more than $22bn of munitions fired
3 Sep Trump says US ammunition is virtually unlimited
Mon the inspector general's report is published
Tue the budget office puts the cost at $38bn, and a Republican congressman files impeachment articles against the defence secretary

Where this points

Watch the $87.6bn the Trump administration asked Congress for in June and has not been given: the budget office says the war-related part of that request is about 10% larger than the war has actually cost so far. [4]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Weapons stores running down High↑

The US defence department's auditor found shortages of advanced missiles and bottlenecks in the factories meant to replace them. [1] Ukraine's commanders say Russia mass-produces jet-powered drones while their own interceptors still crash in testing. [21] The US is preparing to sell Israel 40,000 two-thousand-pound bombs. [11]

Attacks on oil routes High→

A tanker called the El Gaia was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and two of its crew are missing. [12] Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which was carrying 4 to 5 million barrels a day around that strait, is shut after a drone strike. [16] Brent crude, the main world oil price, traded near $108 a barrel. [42]

Dearer oil reaching households Building↑

Japan's import bill rose 28% in a year and it has now run a trade deficit for four months straight. [35] India's rupee fell to its weakest in over a month as oil climbed. [43] Prices across Nigeria have risen sharply since its government scrapped the fuel subsidy in 2023. [45]

Governments facing angry voters Building↑

In Berlin the Left Party leads the far-right AfD by 21% to 18% before Sunday's state election. [29] Nigerians living in displacement camps near Abuja say they want change before the 2027 election. [45] US state and local election officials are rehearsing for disputed counts in November. [49]

Chip supply getting tight Building↑

A union at Micron's biggest plant, in Taiwan, is keeping strike preparations alive over profit-sharing. [36] SK Hynix is in talks to make memory chips at Intel's Ohio factory for the first time. [37]

The rest of the day

39 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Republican files impeachment articles against Hegseth

Thomas Massie, a Republican member of the US House of Representatives, read articles of impeachment against defence secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday. [8] He accused Hegseth of waging war without the approval of Congress, of carrying out killings outside any court, and of paying little attention to civilian deaths. [8] Massie has been the loudest Republican critic of the war on Iran and is trying to force a vote his own party is expected to bury. [8]

Why it matters — It is the first attempt to remove the man running the war, and it comes from President Trump's own party rather than from the opposition. It lands the same week two official reports contradicted what he has said about weapons stocks.
03
US prepares to sell Israel 40,000 heavy bombs

The Trump administration has informally told congressional committees it plans to sell Israel 40,000 two-thousand-pound bombs in a $2.8bn deal paid for with US aid money. [9][11] Half are Mark 84 bombs and half are bunker-busting versions built to punch through concrete. [11] Reuters reported a wider munitions package worth $3.6bn. [10] Senator Chris Van Hollen said he would try to block it. [9]

Why it matters — Israel has used these bombs hundreds of times in Gaza and Lebanon, including in areas it had told civilians were safe. [9] The sale also draws down the same US stockpiles the US defence auditor has just called short.
04
Tanker attacked in Hormuz, two crew missing

Oman said two sailors are missing and 23 were rescued from the Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia, which was attacked about 2.4km north of the Musandam peninsula and towed to an Omani port after a fire in its engine room. [12] Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the ship hit a naval mine on a route they call unsafe. [12] The US military said Iran struck it with a missile last month and a drone at the weekend. [12]

Why it matters — The UN's shipping body counts 22 seafarers killed in 79 confirmed incidents in the strait and the wider region since February. [12] The crews doing the dying are hired hands on ships flying flags of convenience, and no government is answering for them.
05
Houthis hit a Saudi airbase, Saudi strikes kill three

Yemeni officials said Houthi fighters hit Khamis Mushait airbase in southern Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones, damaging hangars, radar, runways and ammunition stores. [13] The Houthis, the armed movement that controls most of northern Yemen, said it was payback for Saudi-led strikes. [13] A Houthi-run health ministry spokesman said Saudi air strikes killed three people in Taiz province, two of them children; the Associated Press said it could not verify that. [14]

Why it matters — Saudi Arabia says it will respond firmly, so each side is now answering the last strike with another one. [15] Gulf share indexes fell on the news, with Dubai's main index down 0.8%. [13]
06
Satellite images show the pipeline damage

New satellite pictures show major damage to the pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the 1,200km line that carries crude across the peninsula and out through the Red Sea. [15] It had been moving 4 to 5 million barrels a day -- about 4% of world supply -- while the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut. [16] US energy secretary Chris Wright said it would be back in days; trade analysts at Kpler put the repair at four to six weeks. [16][15]

Why it matters — The oil under the sand has not changed; how much of it reaches buyers now depends on how fast spare parts arrive. Satellite images also show damage to King Khalid Air Base from a Houthi strike last week. [15]
07
Saudi crown prince asks Egypt for backing

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman flew to Cairo and met Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, and both said they were committed to free and safe shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait at its southern end. [17] Neither gave any detail of what either country would actually do. [17] Egypt is unlikely to send forces, but it talks to every side in the region, including Iran. [17]

Why it matters — Saudi Arabia has asked the US for direct military help and been refused. [16] Looking for Arab political cover instead is what a country does when the ally it counted on has said no.
08
US says it destroyed two Iranian boats

US Central Command said its forces opened fire on and destroyed two small Iranian boats that tried to seize an unmanned American surface vessel off Iran's coast. [18] The craft is a Saildrone, about eight metres long, which sails itself and has been used to watch shipping in the region for years. [18] Iranian state media said two fishing boats were attacked in Hormozgan province and several fishermen were missing. [18]

Why it matters — The two accounts describe the same event as a theft attempt and as an attack on fishermen, and there is no independent witness to either. The US says all its surface drones are accounted for. [18]
09
Ukraine attacks in northern Donetsk

Brigadier-General Andrii Biletskyi said Ukraine's third army corps has launched an offensive in the north of the Donetsk region, clearing 75 square kilometres of Russian infiltration groups and retaking a further 10. [19] Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, has been the heaviest fighting of the war for more than four years. [19] Biletskyi has commanded the defence in that area since last month. [19]

Why it matters — Ukraine has spent most of this year defending rather than attacking, so a push of this size is a change of posture. It also arrives while both governments are talking about pausing strikes on each other's power and fuel.
10
Zelensky sets a price for pausing strikes

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will stop attacking Russian infrastructure only if the US can guarantee Russia is genuinely ready to stop attacking Ukraine's. [20] He accused Russia of deliberately hitting food, energy and water supplies. [20] Russian strikes have left thousands of Ukrainian households without power or heating for three winters running, and a fourth is weeks away. [20]

Why it matters — Trump said on Monday the two sides had agreed to stop hitting each other's energy sites; this is the first thing either government has said about it, and it is a condition rather than a yes.
11
Ukraine says it is losing the jet-drone race

Russia increased its use of jet-powered drones roughly sixfold over three months this summer, according to Ukrainian military data seen by Reuters. [21] Ukraine's own interceptor drones proved hard to control above 400km/h and some crashed into fields and forests during tests. [21] Maksym Zhorin, a deputy corps commander, wrote that Russia had set up mass production of jet Shahed drones "and we don't even know what to do about them". [21]

Why it matters — Ukraine's air defences were already thin for the winter, and a faster drone arrives before an interceptor can reach it. The bottleneck is how quickly each side can manufacture, not who has the better design.
12
Drone that hit a train may have targeted diplomats

Ukraine's state railway company believes a Russian drone that struck a train near the Polish border may have been aimed at a diplomatic service. [22] Former UK prime minister Boris Johnson and former US general David Petraeus had travelled the same route on an earlier train that day. [22] The attack has brought calls for NATO, the military alliance of 32 mostly European and North American countries, to shoot drones down over Ukraine itself. [22]

Why it matters — Rail is how almost every foreign visitor reaches Ukraine, because the airspace is closed. If those trains are targets, the diplomacy has to move or stop.
13
Denmark summons Russia's ambassador over flares

Denmark accused a Russian frigate of firing two emergency flares at a Danish air force Fennec helicopter that was photographing it in international waters off Gedser on Monday, with one flare passing close by. [23] Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the act reckless and said it was meant to intimidate and divide. [23] Russia has not commented, and Denmark has summoned its ambassador. [23]

Why it matters — Foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said Russia is gradually shifting what it treats as acceptable behaviour. [23] The same day, NATO jets shot down a drone over Lithuania.
14
US moves military aid from Europe to the Americas

The US State Department told Congress it will move $52m of foreign military financing away from Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq, and give it to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. [24] That money is US taxpayer cash which the receiving country spends on American-made weapons. [24] Secretary of State Marco Rubio had visited Colombia, Ecuador and Peru the week before and promised them more support. [24]

Why it matters — Slovakia and North Macedonia are NATO members, so this cuts allies inside the alliance to pay for partners outside it. The department said the money would fight drug trafficking and help secure the Panama Canal. [24]
15
US says neither Sudanese general has a future

Massad Boulos, President Trump's senior adviser on Arab and African affairs, said there is "no future" in Sudan for either of the two generals fighting its civil war. [25] They are army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Dagalo, who leads the Rapid Support Forces. [25] He said the US backs only a handover to civilians, and admitted the ceasefire plan agreed a year ago with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt has produced nothing. [25][26] Both generals are under US sanctions. [25]

Why it matters — The US has also pushed for a UN arms embargo on the whole country and imposed measures over the army's alleged use of chemical weapons. [26] A Sudanese analyst told The National the pressure has shifted onto al-Burhan after years of the US trying to balance the two. [26]
16
EU Parliament turns on Spain over Ceuta

The European Parliament held a heated debate on the July crossing into Ceuta, the Spanish city on Morocco's Mediterranean coast. [27] Centre-right members accused Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of ignoring police and intelligence warnings and going on holiday for 25 days. [27] Up to 80,000 people crossed, and at least 100 died trying. [28] A resolution goes to a vote next Thursday, and the two big centrist groups are fighting over its wording. [27]

Why it matters — Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is expected to propose tighter asylum rules and a bigger EU border agency in her State of the Union speech. [27] The argument is no longer about Ceuta; it is about whether the whole bloc copies Denmark's approach or Spain's. [28]
17
Berlin votes Sunday with three parties level

Berlin, a city-state of 3.9 million people, elects its state parliament on 20 September, and the latest infratest dimap poll has the Left Party on 21%, the centre-right CDU on 20% and the far-right AfD on 18%. [29] The Greens are on 16% and the Social Democrats, who governed Berlin for decades, are on 12%. [29] Central districts lean Green and Left; the outer districts, where most Berliners live, lean CDU and in places AfD. [29]

Why it matters — The AfD is weaker in Berlin than in Saxony-Anhalt, where it won a state election on 6 September by a margin that makes keeping it out of government almost impossible. [29] A socialist party topping the poll in the capital is a very different German result from the one two weeks ago.
18
Romanian shepherds tear-gassed in Bucharest

Riot police used tear gas on about 2,000 shepherds and farmers protesting outside the Romanian government's headquarters on Tuesday. [30] They are angry that the European Commission extended a ban on live sheep exports to 31 December over outbreaks of small ruminant plague and sheep and goat pox, blaming Romanian authorities for weak prevention. [30] Crop farmers promised 100 euros a hectare in drought compensation were told they would get 19. [30]

Why it matters — Live sheep exports to the Middle East are the main income for much of Romanian pastoral farming, and the ban has now run most of a year. The compensation gap is a government promise met at a fifth of its size.
19
French energy strike takes 6.7GW off the grid

A 24-hour strike at the state-owned nuclear operator EDF, the French gas terminal firm Elengy and Belgium's Fluxys cut French electricity supply by 6.7 gigawatts, about 15% of early-morning demand, though France stayed a net exporter. [31] The unions are protesting a July recommendation by France's public auditor to cut staff benefits, including cheap electricity and gas for energy workers and pensioners. [31] The auditor put the cost of that perk to EDF at over 700 million euros in 2024. [31]

Why it matters — It is a warning shot before the French government's budget, which needs savings somewhere. Energy minister Maud Bregeon said she would talk to the unions the same day. [31]
20
Court to decide if Duterte can stand trial

Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines from 2016 to 2022, appeared at the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands on Wednesday for a hearing on whether he is well enough to be tried. [32] He is charged with crimes against humanity over death squads that killed drug suspects; prosecutors say as many as 30,000 people may have died, while police recorded 6,200. [32] His lawyers say he has cognitive decline. Judges ruled in January that his health was good enough. [32]

Why it matters — His trial is set for November, and this hearing decides whether it happens at all. He is 81 and has been in custody at The Hague since March 2025. [32]
21
Seoul court orders North Korea to pay for a demolished office

The Seoul Central District Court ordered North Korea to pay 44.6 billion won, about $32.5m, for blowing up the joint liaison office in the border town of Kaesong in 2020. [33] It is the first ruling in a lawsuit South Korea's government brought against the North, filed in 2023 by the previous conservative administration. [33] The court also made North Korea liable for the legal costs. [33] Neither the court nor North Korea's embassy in Beijing commented. [33]

Why it matters — There is no way to collect the money, so the judgment is a record rather than a bill. South Korea's unification ministry said it respects the ruling and still hopes talks between the two resume. [33]
22
Japan confirms its Global Hawk drone crashed

Japan's Air Self-Defense Force confirmed on Wednesday that its RQ-4B Global Hawk surveillance drone crashed after ground controllers lost contact with it. [34] Debris photographed floating off Tottori prefecture, on Japan's western coast, was identified as the aircraft. [34] An investigation team has been sent to work out the cause. [34]

Why it matters — The Global Hawk flies very high for very long and is how Japan watches its own coastline and the seas towards North Korea and China. Replacing one is a years-long purchase, not a reorder.
23
Japan runs a fourth month of trade deficit

Japan recorded a trade deficit for the fourth month running in August as its import bill rose 28% from a year earlier to 11.15 trillion yen, about $71.9bn. [35] Exports rose 19.3% to 10 trillion yen, mostly computer chips and cars. [35] Japan imports almost all its oil, and most of it used to come through the Strait of Hormuz. [35] Brent crude has gone from the upper $60s a barrel a year ago to above $100, peaking at $118 in April. [35]

Why it matters — The Bank of Japan meets this week and markets expect its rate to go from 1% to 1.25%, which would lift the yen and cut the import bill. [35] A stronger yen would also hurt exporters like Toyota. [35]
24
Micron's Taiwan union keeps a strike ready

The union representing workers at Micron's Taiwan plants -- the American memory-chip maker's largest manufacturing base -- said on Tuesday it could move towards a strike unless the company agrees to a permanent profit-sharing system giving staff 15% of operating profit. [36] A one-off cash award did not settle the dispute. [36] No strike has been called and production has not been affected. [36]

Why it matters — Taiwan makes Micron's DRAM and high-bandwidth memory, the chips that go into servers running artificial intelligence. Memory is already scarce, so a stoppage at one site would be felt worldwide within weeks. [36]
25
SK Hynix in talks to make chips in Ohio

SK Hynix, the South Korean firm that leads the world in high-bandwidth memory chips, is in exploratory talks with Intel about making memory chips on US soil for the first time, three people familiar with the discussions told Reuters. [37] One option is leasing part of Intel's long-delayed Ohio plant; another is a joint venture with Intel and cloud computing firms wanting to lock in supply. [37] Opposition from the South Korean government could block it. [37]

Why it matters — Intel has struggled to pay for the Ohio site, and a tenant would help. The Trump administration has been pressing chipmakers to build inside the US as an AI-driven memory shortage bites. [37]
26
Chinese savers pile into US stock funds

Chinese investors are rushing into funds that buy foreign shares, especially US ones, after regulators raised the quota on how much money may legally leave the country. [38] Fund managers have had to cap subscriptions, and the funds trade at high premiums. [38] The rush follows a crackdown on unofficial routes abroad, such as online brokerages Chinese regulators consider illegal. [38]

Why it matters — Returns on Chinese savings at home are near their lowest, so the demand was already there. China's government widened the legal door at the same time as it shut the back one. [38]
27
Toyota's two Chinese partners move to merge

Guangzhou Automobile Group said it plans to buy part of FAW Group's stake in a car joint venture with an overseas-listed company; Chinese state media reported the venture is FAW Toyota. [39] That would bring Toyota's two separate Chinese businesses closer together. [39] Foreign carmakers in China have run through local joint ventures for decades, and the market is shrinking as domestic rivals undercut them. [39]

Why it matters — It is a sign that the joint-venture model foreign carmakers built China on is being consolidated rather than expanded. Analysts expect more of China's crowded car industry to merge. [39]
28
Malaysia sounds out rivals over AirAsia

Malaysia's airport operator has been talking to rival airlines about filling routes as it watches AirAsia's finances, three people told Reuters. [40] AirAsia had current liabilities of 18.4 billion ringgit, about $4.51bn, at the end of June, and owes the airport operator at least 500 million ringgit in landing and parking fees. [40] The operator has already extended repayment deadlines. [40] AirAsia says demand is strong and it is raising fresh capital. [40]

Why it matters — AirAsia is the budget airline much of Southeast Asia flies on, so its routes are not easily replaced. Quiet talks with competitors are what a country does when it is planning for the airline failing.
29
UAE's oil firm buys Iraqi crude at deep discounts

ADNOC Trading, the arm of the United Arab Emirates' state oil company, agreed to buy 32 million barrels of Iraqi crude in August at discounts of $24.90 to $27 a barrel, and a further 40 million in September. [41] It has lifted 14 million barrels so far this month. [41] Iraq's state oil marketer is selling cheap because it struggles to get the oil out, and PetroChina, TotalEnergies, Vitol and Trafigura are buying too. [41]

Why it matters — Iraq is selling at $18 to $27 below the going rate because Hormuz is shut and it cannot ship freely. Last month Iran let some tankers carrying Iraqi oil through after repeated requests. [41]
30
Oil slips as US stockpiles build

Brent crude fell 93 cents to $107.82 a barrel on Wednesday morning and US West Texas Intermediate fell 97 cents to $104.86, after an unexpected rise in US crude inventories. [42] Traders were still weighing the closure of Saudi Arabia's Yanbu loading port following the pipeline attack. [42]

Why it matters — A price above $100 is what feeds the inflation the budget office has priced into next year. [4] The fall is small against a rise from the upper $60s a year ago. [35]
31
India's rupee hits a one-month low

The rupee closed at 95.96 to the dollar on Tuesday, its weakest in more than a month and its biggest one-day fall since mid-July, as Brent crude rose more than 2% to $108.20 a barrel. [43] Likely intervention by India's central bank kept it above 96. [43] Indian stocks and bonds fell too, with traders also betting on a US rate rise this week. [43]

Why it matters — India buys most of its oil abroad and pays for it in dollars, so a dearer barrel and a weaker rupee hit the same bill twice. Its goods trade deficit for August came in narrower than expected. [43]
32
Pakistan orders relief for rain-hit districts

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told the head of Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority to use every available resource for people in areas hit by rain, and to coordinate with the provincial disaster agencies. [44] He asked for link roads and bridges to be kept open and relief goods delivered on time. [44] The authority's chairman, Lt-Gen Inam Haider Malik, briefed him at a meeting on Tuesday. [44]

Why it matters — Pakistan's monsoon damage has run into the billions in recent years, and the response has usually been the argument afterwards about who was responsible. A directive is not yet money or machinery.
33
Nigeria's displaced organise before the 2027 vote

Nigerians living in camps around the capital Abuja say they will vote for change in the 2027 election. [45] Liyatu Ayuba Yusuf, a 56-year-old organiser in a camp of 3,800 people, has delivered women's votes as a bloc before and is a member of President Bola Tinubu's own party. [45] Nigeria now has roughly 3.7 million internally displaced people, up from 3.1 million in 2022. [45]

Why it matters — Prices have climbed steeply since Tinubu scrapped the fuel subsidy in 2023, a change economists praised and households felt. [45] A displaced population that votes together is a bloc no Nigerian party has had to answer to before.
34
Indonesia's smoke doubles respiratory cases

People treated for wildfire-related breathing illness across seven Indonesian provinces more than doubled to 113,336 by 9 September, from 50,891 on 1 September. [46] More than 12.5 million people on Borneo and Sumatra have been exposed to the smoke. [46] In West Kalimantan, volunteers are going door to door handing out oxygen cylinders to residents and firefighters. [46] The air has also turned unhealthy in Singapore and Malaysia. [46]

Why it matters — These are Indonesia's most intense fires in 11 years, driven by drought under a strong El Nino weather pattern. [46] A clinic in Pontianak treated 187 breathing cases in eleven days, against 422 in the whole of August. [46]
35
US measles deaths reach a decades high

Pennsylvania confirmed two more measles deaths on Tuesday, taking the state's total this year to four and US deaths to their highest in decades. [47] Both people were unvaccinated. [47] The state had not recorded a measles death for 35 years before this summer, and its outbreak has grown to nearly 700 cases. [47]

Why it matters — Measles was treated as beaten in the US, and a disease only stops spreading when roughly 95% of children are protected. Four deaths in weeks, in one state, is what falling below that looks like.
36
UK inquiry condemns a hospital's handling of Letby

The Thirlwall Inquiry into the nurse Lucy Letby, convicted of murdering babies in her care at an English hospital, published its findings. [48] It called the hospital's handling of Letby's 2017 grievance "deplorable" and said the investigating officer brought neither independence nor objectivity. [48] Evidence from two senior managers was found to be factually inaccurate and misleading. [48] Thirlwall noted there is still no health-service-wide rule on deliberate harm by staff. [48]

Why it matters — The report's sharpest line is that safeguarding action is required when a staff member is suspected of causing harm, and does not require colleagues to be sure. [48] Waiting for certainty is what let it continue.
37
US election officials rehearse for a disputed count

US state and local election officials are taking unusual steps to protect voting machines, staff and public confidence two months before November's midterm elections, Reuters reported after a months-long investigation. [49] The reporters found growing signs that President Trump is trying to use federal power and claims of fraud to influence the result. [49] Officials described rehearsing for disputes they once thought unthinkable. [49]

Why it matters — The midterms decide control of both chambers of Congress, which Republicans hold now. The people preparing are the county clerks who will have to certify the numbers.
38
US Treasury chief to meet China before Trump-Xi

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a House committee he will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this weekend, before a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week. [50] He said the two presidents will discuss Iran and China's financial links to Iran's government, which the US is trying to cut off from Western banking. [50] Bessent blamed rising US government borrowing costs on "global issues". [50] Protesters interrupted his opening statement calling for an end to the war. [50]

Why it matters — China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, so what it agrees to do with Iranian money matters more to the war's finances than any sanction the US writes alone.
39
New Zealand passes its India trade deal

New Zealand's parliament voted 93 to 29 on Wednesday to bring in a free trade agreement with India, with the opposition Labour Party backing it. [51] Tariffs on about 95% of New Zealand's exports to India will be removed or cut, and more than half the products covered go duty-free on the first day. [51] All Indian goods get duty-free entry to New Zealand, and New Zealand has agreed to invest $20bn in India over 15 years. [51]

Why it matters — Two-way trade was only NZ$3.99bn in the year to June, and India is New Zealand's ninth-largest export market, so both governments are betting the numbers grow from here. [51] The deal still needs India to ratify it. [51]
40
Japan passes 107,000 centenarians

Japan now has 107,677 people aged 100 or older, the most of any country, and 88% of them are women. [52] The oldest woman is Kishimoto Fuyo, 114, of Kyoto; the oldest man is Kato Hikaru, 112, of Kumamoto. [52] Health Minister Kenichiro Ueno credited progress in medicine and technology, and warned about paying for the pension system. [52] Japan's birth rate fell to a record low of 1.14 children per woman last year. [52]

Why it matters — Sales of adult nappies have outstripped baby ones in Japan for more than a decade, and firms now build powered exoskeletons and self-focusing glasses for older customers. [52] The long lives came first; the arithmetic of who pays for them came after.

02 Lesson why it matters

What decides a long war is how fast you can build the next missile

Countries count the missiles in store, and find out only by fighting how many years it takes their factories to build that many again.

The twist

Nobody finds out how slowly their factories work until they are already firing faster than the factories can build.

How it works

A country buys weapons for a short war
The war does not end on time
Firing runs faster than building
Factories cannot be sped up in months
How long the rebuild takes becomes the limit

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

Ukraine losing the jet-drone race

Russia began mass-producing jet drones months ago and Ukraine's interceptors still crash in testing, so the contest is over build speed rather than design
The Saudi pipeline repair

the crude under the sand has not changed, and how much reaches buyers now depends on how fast spare parts arrive for the broken pumps
Micron's Taiwan union keeping a strike ready

memory chips are already scarce, so a stoppage at one plant bites straight away because no rival can raise output in the time it would take
SK Hynix in talks to make chips in Ohio

buyers are paying to add factory capacity years before they need the chips, because a plant cannot be started once the shortage has arrived

Where you've seen this

A hospital in a bad flu winter

the beds can be counted today, and training the nurses to staff them takes three years

A storm that knocks out power

the spare transformers run out and the firm that makes them has a two-year order book

A bakery on a busy morning

the shelves look full at nine, and by noon the single oven decides how many loaves anyone gets

The catch

Building faster is not always right: a country that expands its arms factories for a war that then ends is left paying for machines nobody needs.

And the whole of it

The US officials who ordered the missiles, the Ukrainian commander waiting for interceptors and the Saudi engineer waiting for a pump part are all waiting on a factory somebody else runs. So is anyone who has been told their new car, their boiler part or their hospital appointment is six months away.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

The US defence department's own auditor and the US Congress's budget office both published accounts of the Iran war this week, and both contradict what President Donald Trump has been saying: the US is short of advanced missiles, and the war has cost $38bn up to 1 August. The defence department refused to give the budget office its figures, so the $38bn is an outside estimate built from public records.

Why it works on us — Stockpile numbers are normally classified, so for six months the only public account of how many missiles were left was whatever officials chose to say.

Who gains

US arms manufacturers — The budget office says most of the $38bn is replacing fired munitions, and the defence department says it is trying to streamline buying and shorten production lead times. [5][1]
Iran — Every month the strait stays shut adds up to $3bn to the US bill and about half a point to US inflation next year, without Iran having to win anything on a battlefield. [4]
ADNOC, the United Arab Emirates' state oil company — It bought 72 million barrels of Iraqi crude in August and September at discounts of $18 to $27 a barrel, because Iraq cannot easily ship it out while Hormuz is shut. [41]
Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia — The US State Department moved $52m of military financing to them from Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq. [24]
Intel — A deal putting SK Hynix into its Ohio plant would fill a factory Intel has struggled to pay for on its own. [37]
The European People's Party, the biggest group in the EU Parliament — It used the Ceuta debate to attack Spain's plan to regularise undocumented migrants, which is not connected to the July crossing. [27]

Who pays

Merchant seafarers in the Gulf — The UN's shipping body counts 22 killed in 79 confirmed incidents since February, and two more are missing from the El Gaia. [12]
Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq — Their US military financing was cut to pay for the Americas; two of the four are NATO members. [24]
People in West Kalimantan and Sumatra — Breathing-illness cases across seven provinces more than doubled to 113,336 in nine days, and volunteers are handing out oxygen door to door. [46]
Romanian shepherds — The EU extended the live sheep export ban to 31 December, and drought compensation arrived at 19 euros a hectare instead of the 100 promised. [30]
Households in Japan and India — Japan's import bill rose 28% in a year on dearer oil. [35] India's rupee fell to a one-month low as Brent passed $108. [43]
Families in Pennsylvania — Two more unvaccinated people died of measles, taking the state to four deaths in weeks after 35 years without one. [47]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How long it really takes to rebuild the US missile stockpile.

Congress's budget office says five years. [5] Experts quoted by the Times of Israel say about three. [6] Neither figure is broken down by weapon, and the inspector general did not say how many are left. [1]
02

Whether $38bn is anywhere near what the US has really spent.

The defence department refused to answer the budget office, which built its $38bn from government databases and public reports and called the result subject to considerable uncertainty. [4]
03

How long Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline stays shut.

The US energy secretary said days. [16] Trade analysts at Kpler said four to six weeks, and one source told Reuters five to six. [15][16]
04

Who attacked the tanker El Gaia in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards say it struck a naval mine. The US military says Iran hit it with a missile last month and a drone at the weekend. Nobody independent has seen the hull. [12]
05

How many people Saudi air strikes killed in Taiz province.

The Houthi-run health ministry said three, including two children. The Associated Press said it could not verify that, and the Saudi side did not say what it had targeted. [14]
06

Whether the US Congress can stop the bomb sale to Israel.

The $2.8bn deal has only been informally notified to committees, which is before the stage at which lawmakers can formally object. Senator Chris Van Hollen says he will try to block it. [9]
07

Whether Rodrigo Duterte's trial starts in November.

ICC judges ruled in January that his health was good enough to follow proceedings; his lawyers say he has cognitive decline, and Wednesday's hearing decides it. [32]
08

Whether North Korea ever pays the $32.5m a Seoul court ordered.

The court and North Korea's embassy in Beijing did not respond, and the ruling names no way to collect. [33]
09

What brought down Japan's Global Hawk surveillance drone.

Controllers lost contact, debris was found floating off Tottori, and an investigation team has only just been sent. [34]
10

How many Indonesians the wildfire smoke has made ill in total.

The health ministry's 113,336 counts seven provinces to 9 September, and one clinic's own visits have kept climbing since. [46]

04 Hope carry this

New Zealand's parliament voted 93 to 29 on Wednesday to bring in a free trade deal with India. Tariffs come off or come down on about 95% of New Zealand's exports there, and more than half the goods covered go duty-free on the first day.

Also true today

Japan now has 107,677 people aged 100 or older, more than any other country. The oldest is Kishimoto Fuyo, who is 114 and lives in Kyoto.
In West Kalimantan on Borneo, volunteers are going door to door with cylinders of oxygen for residents and firefighters struggling to breathe in the wildfire smoke.