Day Lila

World News · Sunday, 25 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Brazil votes in a tied runoff between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, a day after 1.1 million people rallied for Lula on Copacabana beach

42 stories 99 sources

Brazil chooses between its 80-year-old left-wing president and the son of the jailed ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, with the last poll inside its margin of error and 33 million first-round non-voters still to be won.

47% to 45%

Bolsonaro's first-round lead over Lula on 4 October

more than 2.2 million votes apart [3]

33 million

Brazilians who did not vote in the first round

21% of the electorate, and they can still vote on Sunday [1]

1.1 million

people at Lula's rally on Copacabana beach, by Rio city hall's count

the last day of campaigning [4]

46.3% to 45%

Bolsonaro over Lula in Saturday's CNT/MDA poll

inside the poll's margin of error of 2.2 points [5]

The lead story — what happened

  • Almost 160 million Brazilians can vote on Sunday in a runoff for president between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45. [1][2]
  • Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October with 47% to Lula's 45%, a lead of more than 2.2 million votes. [3]
  • Since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has come back to win the runoff. [4][2]
  • A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday put Bolsonaro on 46.3% and Lula on 45%, inside its margin of error of 2.2 points. [5]
  • Rio's city hall said about 1.1 million people filled Copacabana beach for Lula on Saturday. [4] He then held what AP called possibly the biggest rally of his career, on Paulista Avenue in Sao Paulo. [1]
  • Lula's side has held mass rallies since the first round to bring out some of the 33 million people, 21% of voters, who did not vote then. [2][1]
  • Bolsonaro closed his campaign in Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, a state that has backed the national winner for decades. [1][2]
  • Flavio is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, president from 2019 to 2022, who is serving 27 years for plotting a coup after losing to Lula. [2] Flavio says his first act would be to free him. [6]
  • Bolsonaro promises El Salvador-style mega-prisons, cuts to public spending and trying 16-year-olds as adults. [3][6]
  • Before the vote, Lula raised payments from Bolsa Familia, his cash-aid scheme for poor families, by 15%. [3] He also cut fuel taxes and wiped the debts that 3.6 million small businesses owed Brazil's government. [3]
  • Lula calls the vote a matter of sovereignty and says his rival 'kisses the American flag'. [5] Bolsonaro is an ally of US President Donald Trump, who put 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods last year. [7]
  • Bolsonaro admits taking millions of dollars from a disgraced banker, Daniel Vorcaro, to make a film about his father, and he is under investigation for corruption. [7]
  • Whoever wins faces a hard start, an analyst told AFP: a Lula win means a hostile Brazilian Congress, and a Bolsonaro win means a fight with Brazil's Supreme Court. [6]
The two were almost level in the first round and are almost level in the last poll.

Who is involved

  • Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

    Brazil's left-wing president, 80, in office 2003-2010 and since 2023; seeking a fourth term

  • Flavio Bolsonaro

    right-wing senator, 45, and son of a former president; won the first round

  • Jair Bolsonaro

    president from 2019 to 2022; serving 27 years for a coup plot, under house arrest

  • Donald Trump

    the US president; an ally of the Bolsonaros who put tariffs on Brazil citing Jair's trial

How it unfolded

  1. 2022 Lula beats Jair Bolsonaro, who is later jailed for plotting a coup [2]
  2. 4 Oct Flavio Bolsonaro wins the first round, 47% to 45% [4]
  3. 23 Oct a calmer final TV debate on the economy and infrastructure [19]
  4. 24 Oct last rallies in Rio, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte [1]
  5. 25 Oct the vote; results within hours of polls closing [1]

Where this points

Brazil votes on electronic machines and results come within hours of polls closing, so the margin will be known on Sunday night; the next test is whether the losing side accepts it. [1]

Signals on this beat

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.

Close votes in many countries High↑

Brazil's two candidates are 1.3 points apart in Saturday's last poll. [5] In Serbia, one poll gives President Aleksandar Vucic's party 47% to the students' 40%, and others put the students ahead. [8] Israel's last polls before Tuesday's vote gave neither side a majority. [9]

Crowds on Europe's streets Building→

France counted 410,000 marchers on Saturday and almost 1,000 arrests. [10] Italian police detained 371 people in eight cities, 110 of them under 18. [11] In Albania, more than 300 protesters and police have been hurt since mid-October. [12]

The Iran war spreading High↑

Missiles fired from Yemen at Mecca and Medina were shot down on Saturday. [13] Saudi-led strikes on Sanaa and Hodeidah killed at least 16 people, Houthi media said. [14] The US intelligence chief says Iran's plots against Americans have reached advanced stages. [15]

Gunmen attacking villages and churches High→

Gunmen killed nine people at a church funeral in Jordan, and all three are still free. [16] In Taraba, a state in Nigeria, gunmen on about 50 motorcycles killed at least 10 villagers. [17] Mali's army found 54 bodies after an Islamic State attack on camps near Menaka. [18]

The rest of the day

41 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Serbia votes on Vucic after two years of protest

    Serbians are voting on Sunday in a snap election for parliament between Aleksandar Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party and the Students' List, a new movement backed by university students. [20][8] The protests began in 2024, after a station canopy in the city of Novi Sad collapsed and killed 16 people. [21] Vucic quit as president in September to run for prime minister. [22] An Ipsos poll gave his party 47% to the students' 40%, but other polls put the students ahead. [8] Polls close at 8pm local time. [21]

    One poll, from Ipsos. Other polls put the students ahead.

    Why it matters — A student win would end 14 years of rule by Vucic's party in a country that hopes to join the EU. [21][22] Election monitors have already raised concern about detentions and near-total government control of the media. [22]

  2. 03

    Iran blames the US for a failed deal

    Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian blamed the US on Saturday for the collapse of an interim deal meant to end the war the US and Israel began on 28 February. [23] He said both sides should still return to it. [23] A day earlier, Donald Trump said he 'may do another little Epic Fury', the US name for its attacks on Iran. [24] Iran's Revolutionary Guards, its most powerful armed force, said even a limited strike would be answered 'several times greater'. [23]

    Why it matters — The US has sent a third aircraft carrier group and 10,000 more sailors and Marines toward the Gulf, The Japan Times reports from Bloomberg. [25] A Brookings Institution analyst expects strikes shortly after the US midterm elections on 3 November. [26]

  3. 04

    US spy chief warns of Iranian plots

    Jay Clayton, the US director of national intelligence, wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday that Iran has 'substantially increased' efforts to target US personnel. [15] He said the plotting had reached advanced stages in the Middle East and other countries. [15] The US had already ordered non-emergency embassy staff and their families out of Saudi Arabia this week. [24] It now warns citizens about travel to 13 countries in the region, citing terrorism. [27]

    Why it matters — The list runs from Israel and Iraq to the UAE, Qatar and Oman. [27] A State Department official said the warnings reflect recent Houthi strikes on Saudi airports, not new Houthi weapons. [27]

  4. 05

    Saudi strikes kill 16 in Yemen

    Air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition on Sanaa, Yemen's capital, and the port of Hodeidah killed at least 16 people on Saturday, Houthi media said. [14] One strike hit housing for cement factory workers and killed six women and a child. [14] The Houthis, an Iran-backed group that holds Sanaa, fired missiles at Taif, Yanbu, Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia, which were shot down. [28][13] They also hit coastguard buildings in Aden, seat of Yemen's recognised government. [28]

    Why it matters — A truce agreed under the UN in 2022 has collapsed since July, opening another front in the Iran war. [28][29] The death toll in Yemen comes only from Houthi media and could not be checked. [13]

  5. 06

    Airlines keep avoiding Saudi airports

    Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport partly reopened on 25 October, after Houthi attacks closed it earlier this month. [30] At least 21 people have been killed in Houthi attacks on Saudi airports since October began, 13 of them at Riyadh on 10 October. [15] Etihad, the Abu Dhabi airline, has cancelled flights to Riyadh, Dammam and Jeddah until 5 November. [30] Emirates, the Dubai airline, will not fly to Riyadh or Dammam until 8 November. [30]

    Why it matters — Flydubai, a smaller Dubai airline, returns to Riyadh only on 30 October, so travellers between Saudi Arabia and the UAE face weeks of fewer flights. [30]

  6. 07

    Turkey says it will not fight the Houthis

    Turkey's Defence Minister Yasar Guler said on Friday that Turkish troops are not expected to fight the Houthis under the Makkah pact, a defence deal with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. [31] Any Turkish help to Saudi Arabia would aim to deter attacks, he said. [31] The pact, signed in August, treats an attack on one member as an attack on all, but it is unclear whether that covers armed groups like the Houthis. [31] Turkey's parliament has not yet approved it. [31]

    Why it matters — The same day, foreign ministers from eight countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy, met in Istanbul and condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. [31]

  7. 08

    Israel flattens part of Hebron

    Israeli troops levelled homes in Ein Deir Baha, a district of Hebron, the biggest city in the occupied West Bank, after two soldiers were killed at a checkpoint on Friday. [32] Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, said about 2,000 residents had been displaced and would not return until Israel has finished dealing with Hamas in Hebron. [33] Hebron's municipality said 35 hectares had been destroyed or marked for destruction. [32] The Palestinian Prisoners' Club, a rights group, said about 70 people were arrested. [34]

    Why it matters — Hebron's mayor said 1,300 more people could lose their homes. [33] B'Tselem, an Israeli rights group, called it ethnic cleansing. [35] Palestinian officials call it collective punishment of people who had nothing to do with the attack. [36]

  8. 09

    Israel shuts the West Bank for election day

    Israel's army said all land crossings with the West Bank will close on Tuesday, when Israelis vote. [37] From Sunday, Palestinian workers are also barred from Israeli settlements, apart from some industrial zones. [37] Before the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023, more than 100,000 Palestinians had permits to work in Israel, and only a small share have them back. [37] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened a 'very big surprise' for the Palestinian Authority, which runs parts of the territory. [37]

    Why it matters — AP counts six Israelis killed in the West Bank this year. [38] The Palestinian Health Ministry in Ramallah counts 112 Palestinians killed there in the same time. [38]

  9. 10

    Five Italian activists sent home from Israel

    Five Italian women held by Israeli police in the West Bank were freed and flown home on Saturday, Italy's foreign ministry said. [39] They were detained on Thursday in Kiryat Arba, an Israeli settlement, with other foreign activists who had come to protect Palestinian farmers during the olive harvest. [39] Yesh Din, an Israeli rights group, has recorded more than 330 incidents of settler violence linked to this year's harvest, which began in late September. [39]

    Why it matters — Olives are the backbone of Palestinian farming, a sector worth about 8% of the economy and more than 60,000 jobs, the Palestinian Authority says. [39]

  10. 11

    Thousands march against Netanyahu

    Thousands marched in Tel Aviv on Saturday against Benjamin Netanyahu's government, three days before Israel's election. [9] The rally was called by the October Council, a group of families of people killed or taken hostage on 7 October 2023. [9] It wants a state inquiry into how the attack was missed. [9] The four main opposition leaders took part, including Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief. [40] The last polls before a ban on new polls gave neither side a majority. [9]

    Why it matters — Eisenkot's year-old party, Yashar, is projected to win 20 of 120 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud. [41] In the north, where about 70,000 people were evacuated for almost two years, army reservists told The National they want Netanyahu gone. [42]

  11. 12

    Fake videos fill Israel's campaign

    Both main camps in Israel's election are posting AI-made and fake videos on X. [43] Eisenkot posted one in which a Hamas fighter wishes Netanyahu a happy birthday. [44] Netanyahu posted one of Eisenkot turning from a young man to hug Mansour Abbas, an Arab-Israeli politician. [44] Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper, reported that dozens of bots built to attack Iran's government now back Netanyahu's Likud. [43] Israel's Central Elections Committee restricted Likud's use of Elector, an app that tracks who has voted, over privacy. [43]

    Why it matters — A Likud billboard in Nazareth reads 'the Right or Palestine'. [44] Arab parties, which most Palestinian citizens of Israel vote for, are seen by many as the kingmakers in a tied race. [43]

  12. 13

    Hamas warns of another 7 October

    Hamas told the UN's humanitarian coordinator in Gaza, Ramiz Alakbarov, last week that it is ready to carry out another attack like 7 October 2023, Israeli media reported. [45] The message reached Israel's army, whose officer for Palestinian civilian affairs, Maj Gen Yoram Halevy, wrote urgently to Netanyahu. [45] Hamas said Israeli moves in Gaza, including shifting the 'Yellow Line' that marks Israeli-held ground, are making it lose control. [45]

    Why it matters — Halevy called the message unusually blunt. [45] Netanyahu goes into Tuesday's vote with his record on security badly damaged by the 2023 attack. [46]

  13. 14

    Jordan's church attack toll rises to nine

    Two more people died on Saturday, raising the toll from Friday's attack on St George's Greek Orthodox church in Hamoud, a village in Jordan's Karak province, to nine. [47] Three masked gunmen fired into a funeral, and none had been caught by Saturday. [16][48] Most of the dead were from the Halasah family, one of Jordan's best-known Christian families, and three were doctors. [16] King Abdullah ordered an 'iron fist' response. [49]

    2 of 100

    Christians, out of every 100 Jordanians

    About 250,000 of Jordan's 11 million people are Christian, a little over 2 in 100.

    Why it matters — Christians are about 250,000 of Jordan's 11 million people, and The National calls this the deadliest attack on them since the 1950s. [16] The US embassy says security has been raised at malls and embassies across the country. [49]

  14. 15

    Almost 1,000 arrested in France

    France's interior ministry counted about 410,000 people marching on Saturday over living costs and run-down schools, and unions counted 800,000. [10] Police made almost 1,000 arrests as clashes broke out at the end of marches in Paris, Marseille, Lyon and other cities. [10][50] President Emmanuel Macron had allowed only marches organised by recognised unions, and 70,000 police were on duty. [10] Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said the day went better than last weekend, when 2,700 were arrested. [51]

    Why it matters — Two people were badly hurt, including a man in Toulouse who reportedly lost fingers. [51] France chooses Macron's successor in six months. [51]

  15. 16

    Protests spread from Milan to Lisbon

    Protests also ran on Saturday in Milan, Rome, Turin, Madrid, Lisbon and Brussels, over pensions, housing, schools and living costs. [11] Italian police detained 371 people in eight cities, 110 of them under 18, and made nine arrests. [11] Italy sent 500 more soldiers to Milan, and protesters burned a giant power bill outside the energy regulator. [52] In Madrid, pensioners marched for pensions that rise with prices. [53] In Brussels, shops boarded up their windows against looting. [54]

    Why it matters — Clashes broke out in Rome and Turin, while Milan's march stayed peaceful. [52] Italian police said minors made up much of last week's violent crowds, and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has toughened penalties for them. [52]

  16. 17

    Tirana protesters set a ministry door on fire

    Riot police in Tirana, Albania's capital, used tear gas, water cannon and rubber bullets on Saturday against protesters who threw rocks and set fire to the agriculture ministry's door. [55] More than 300 protesters and police have been hurt since mid-October, officials say. [12] The protests began over a luxury resort on the coast backed by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law. [55] They grew into anger at corruption, a lack of jobs and poor schools. [55]

    Why it matters — Prime Minister Edi Rama, in power since 2013, promised a 'prolonged and persistent' response from the state. [12][55] He blames 'foreign actors' and accuses Russia and Iran of spreading false stories online. [12]

  17. 18

    Le Pen's party opens her campaign

    Jordan Bardella was re-elected leader of the National Rally, France's main far-right party, with 98.98% of members' votes on Saturday; he was the only candidate. [56] The party's congress in Orleans opens Marine Le Pen's run for president in six months, with Bardella hoping to be her prime minister. [56][57] About 11,000 people marched in Orleans against the party, by the authorities' count. [56] Le Pen speaks on Sunday. [56]

    Why it matters — The counter-march came a day after a shooting in Trappes, near Paris, killed one person; it is being investigated as racist. [58] Bally Bagayoko, mayor of Saint-Denis near Paris, joined the march and linked the attack to hateful talk on social media. [58]

  18. 19

    Bulgaria picks a president

    Bulgarians are voting on Sunday for a president, a mostly ceremonial job that commands the armed forces and can veto laws. [59] Acting President Iliana Iotova led an Alpha Research poll with 41%, ahead of a former caretaker prime minister, Andrey Gyurov, on 28%. [59] To win outright a candidate needs turnout above 50%, and turnout is expected to be under 40%. [59] So a runoff on 1 November is likely. [59]

    Alpha Research's poll, before 27 candidates went to the vote.

    Why it matters — Gyurov signed a security deal with Ukraine, while Iotova wants a negotiated end to the war. [60] Drone attacks on ships off Bulgaria's coast have likely killed about two dozen sailors, and Prime Minister Rumen Radev says they benefit Russia. [60]

  19. 20

    Ukraine hits Russian plants and Crimea

    Ukraine said it struck the Togliattikauchuk plant in Togliatti, one of Russia's biggest makers of synthetic rubber, on Saturday. [61] It also hit the Proton plant in Oryol, which Ukraine says makes missile parts. [61] A drone attack on the power grid cut electricity and water in Russian-held Crimea, home to 2.5 million people. [62] Russia's defence ministry said it downed 1,297 drones in a day. [61] Russian strikes killed at least five people in eastern Ukraine. [62]

    Why it matters — The fighting goes on while both sides prepare a local truce in Oleshky, a Russian-held town, to let in aid. [63] Russia and Ukraine say firing there stops on 27 October. [63]

  20. 21

    Ukraine gets full Starlink speed back

    Ukraine's Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara said on Saturday that Starlink and Starshield, SpaceX's satellite internet and its military version, now hold a stable link above 400km/h. [64][65] For more than a week drones had lost the link above about 161km/h, and commanders reported lost drones and missions. [65][64] Elon Musk, who owns SpaceX, then said Ukraine had broken Starlink's terms by using it for 'offensive drone strikes', a gap he said was closed last week. [66]

    Why it matters — Musk warned that breaking the terms 'will result in end of service', and also wrote that without Starlink Ukraine's front line 'would collapse immediately'. [66] Europe's nearest rival, Eutelsat's OneWeb, has about 600 satellites against Starlink's 10,000-plus. [67]

  21. 22

    Kim crosses a new bridge into China

    North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, crossed the New Yalu River Bridge into Dandong, a Chinese border city, on Saturday. [68] The bridge was finished in 2014 but stood unused for 12 years, because North Korea had not built roads and customs posts for it; it opened in mid-October. [69][68] Kim met Wang Huning, a senior leader of China's Communist Party, and they toured a car factory. [68] It was his sixth visit to China. [68]

    Why it matters — The visit came around the 25 October anniversary of China joining the Korean War in 1950. [68][69] China is North Korea's biggest trading partner. [69]

  22. 23

    Mali's army finds 54 bodies

    Mali's army said on Saturday it found 54 bodies in a camp at Tagadayat, near Menaka in the north-east, raising the toll from attacks last weekend from 48. [18] The camps mostly housed the Daoussahak, the community behind the MSA, an armed group allied with Mali's military government. [18] The army blames the Islamic State group's Sahel branch. [18] A security source told AFP the killings were revenge for recent army operations. [18]

    Why it matters — Nine survivors were taken to the town of Menaka. [18] Mali has fought jihadists, separatists and criminal gangs since 2012. [18]

  23. 24

    Gunmen kill villagers in Nigeria

    Gunmen on about 50 motorcycles raided Binnari, a village in Nigeria's Taraba state, after Friday prayers, killing people and looting shops for up to four hours. [17] Police recovered 10 bodies, survivors counted at least 20, and Amnesty International, a rights group, said 40 to 50. [70][17] The attackers had gone by the time police arrived. [17] The same day, Nigeria's army said an air strike killed 15 'terrorists' in Borno state. [70]

    Why it matters — Amnesty said the authorities leave rural communities 'at the mercy of gunmen'. [70] Security is one of two issues expected to decide Nigeria's January election. [71]

  24. 25

    Tinubu starts his re-election campaign

    Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu, 74, launched his campaign for a second term at a stadium in Kaduna on Saturday, ahead of the election on 16 January 2027. [71] He scrapped fuel subsidies and let the naira, Nigeria's currency, fall. [71] That steadied public finances but brought the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. [71] Petrol reached about 1,400 naira ($1.05) a litre in Lagos in September. [71] 'They created the hunger,' he said of his rivals. [72]

    Why it matters — His main rivals are again Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. [72] In 2023 Tinubu won with less than 37% of the vote. [72]

  25. 26

    New York church settles abuse claims for $800m

    The Catholic Archdiocese of New York agreed to pay more than $800m to about 1,300 people sexually abused by clergy, its archbishop, Ronald Hicks, said on Saturday. [73] Each will receive at least $250,000, The New York Times reported. [73] It is the second-largest such settlement in the US, after $880m by the Archdiocese of Los Angeles in 2024. [73] It will be signed on 6 November, and lawyers said the survivors agreed unanimously. [73][74]

    Why it matters — The deal ends years of lawsuits. [74] Hicks was appointed by Pope Leo in December 2025, after his predecessor began a $300m fund for victims. [74]

  26. 27

    Obama campaigns as early voting starts

    Former US president Barack Obama campaigned in Ohio and Michigan on Saturday for Democrats in the 3 November midterm elections, which decide who controls the US Congress. [75] In Detroit he headlined a 'get out the vote' rally for Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed on Michigan's first day of early voting. [76] He blamed Donald Trump for higher prices and the Iran war. [75] Trump voted early in Florida and told a rally in Georgia 'we're in the golden age of America'. [75][77]

    Why it matters — If Democrats win control of the US Congress, Trump will find it harder to carry out his plans in his last two years. [75]

  27. 28

    US charges migrants over voter rolls

    US federal prosecutors have charged immigrants in California who are applying for citizenship with lying about registering to vote, AP reports. [78] One, Jose Antonio Banuelos-Diaz, says he never voted and did not know a driver's licence application in 2007 had registered him. [78] Prosecutors also gave California's counties 48 hours to check about 20,000 ballots of suspected non-citizens. [79] Los Angeles officials said many people on the list were born in the US. [79]

    Why it matters — The charges could bring years in prison and end their hopes of citizenship. [78] California's attorney general, Rob Bonta, called the push 'weaponizing the law'. [79]

  28. 29

    Eagle's Nest fire suspect may be ill

    Police in Bavaria, in southern Germany, are holding a 33-year-old German man over Friday's fire at the Kehlsteinhaus, the mountain house built for Adolf Hitler and known as the Eagle's Nest. [80] Prosecutor Rainer Vietze said a psychiatric report found signs of possible mental illness, and a political motive is also being looked at. [80] About 200 firefighters fought the blaze at 1,834 metres, and the building was largely destroyed. [81]

    Why it matters — It had been kept as a monument to 'the insanity of the regime'. [81] Bavaria's interior minister said it would 'under no circumstances remain a ruin'. [80]

  29. 30

    Tanzania's jailed opposition leader to stop eating

    Tundu Lissu, leader of Chadema, Tanzania's main opposition party, will start a hunger strike on Monday, his lawyer said on Saturday. [82] He says prison staff ignore a court order letting him see his lawyers in private. [82] Lissu has been held for more than 18 months on a treason charge that can carry the death penalty. [82] Judgment is due on 6 November. [82] He was arrested in April 2025 after a rally for election reform. [82]

    Why it matters — His lawyer says Lissu relies on medicine and is ready to stop taking it. [82] He survived being shot 16 times in 2017. [82]

  30. 31

    Haiti's ex-president Martelly runs again

    Michel Martelly, Haiti's president from 2011 to 2016, registered on Friday to run in elections set for 13 December, Haiti's first general elections in more than 10 years. [83] The US and Canada have sanctioned him, accusing him of helping drug traffickers and backing gangs. [83] On 9 October, Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council dropped a rule against candidates sanctioned abroad. [83] Gangs control about 70% of Port-au-Prince, the capital, and have forced 1.4 million people from home. [83]

    Why it matters — A UN report this month described deep ties between gangs and Haiti's politicians and business people, and warned violence could rise before the vote. [83]

  31. 32

    Three hostages come home in Central Africa

    Three people held for 10 months by an armed group in the Central African Republic arrived in Bangui, the capital, on a UN flight this week. [84] They were a local official and two members of the election authority, seized in Bambouti on election day in December. [84] MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping force there, negotiated their release with Azande fighters, a group formed in 2023 and trained by Russia's former Wagner mercenaries. [84] President Faustin-Archange Touadera welcomed them. [84]

    Why it matters — Two of the three worked for the body that runs elections, and they were taken on the day of the vote. [84]

  32. 33

    Guinea-Bissau puts off its election

    Guinea-Bissau's transitional government has postponed the presidential and parliamentary elections set for 6 December, with no new date, a spokesman for Prime Minister Ilidio Vieira Te told DW. [85] The army seized power on 26 November 2025, three days after a vote and before results came out. [85] No party had registered candidates by the 6 October deadline. [85] The vote may slip to 2027 or 2028. [85]

    Why it matters — In the vote the coup cut short, both the then-president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, and his rival claimed victory. [85]

  33. 34

    Lebanon's president visits Tripoli

    Joseph Aoun on Saturday made the first visit by a Lebanese president in 15 years to Tripoli, the country's second-largest city. [86] Tripoli is home to some of Lebanon's richest politicians but is one of its poorest cities. [86] Aoun toured the port and a special economic zone and promised jobs. [86] 'The state is present and always stands by your side,' he told residents. [86]

    Why it matters — He called fighting corruption and keeping the courts independent national priorities. [86]

  34. 35

    Iran's speaker skips a BRICS meeting in India

    Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament, will not attend a meeting of BRICS parliament speakers in New Delhi on 26-27 October, Iran's embassy said. [87][88] BRICS is a group of countries that includes India and Iran. [87] The Hindu reports that India refused to let Iran Air fly medicines to Tehran, saying Indian airports would face US sanctions. [87] Iran says some medicines spoiled when sent through other countries. [87]

    Why it matters — India says Iran can receive medicines through a third country such as Armenia. [87] Iran says aid is not under any sanction. [87]

  35. 36

    Survivors pulled from Nairobi's rubble

    Rescuers pulled people alive from a building that collapsed in Eastleigh, a busy trading district of Nairobi, Kenya's capital: two, the BBC reports, and one, AP reports. [89][90] Police are hunting the building's owner and the contractor. [89] The BBC says five people are still missing, while the Kenya Red Cross has 31 missing reports it is still checking. [89][90] In an audit last year, 87% of Kenyan buildings failed standards or lacked approvals. [91]

    Why it matters — Nairobi completed 25,090 buildings last year, up from 20,025 in 2022. [91] Africanews reports that corruption lets builders cut corners. [91]

  36. 37

    Eleven shot near a Florida university

    Eleven people were shot near the campus of Florida A&M University in Tallahassee on Saturday night, and another person was hurt. [92] Police said six were adults and six were under 18, and three were badly hurt. [92] A fight came before the shooting, police said. [92] The New York Post said it began at a homecoming party and that the youngest victim was 11. [92]

    Why it matters — Children were among the injured, the city's police chief said. [92]

  37. 38

    Australia's police chief links words to threats

    Krissy Barrett, head of the Australian Federal Police, said on Sunday that heated language from politicians is feeding threats against MPs. [93] Some days her report of threats from the last 24 hours runs to pages, she said. [93] It follows the alleged deliberate attack on Helen Haines, an independent MP, outside her office in Wangaratta. [93] Haines is in a serious but stable condition after both her legs were amputated. [93]

    Why it matters — Barrett said she does not want to police free speech, but that the threats she reads are not political debate. [93]

  38. 39

    UK's Burnham opens talk of free movement

    Andy Burnham, the UK's prime minister, told the Sunday Times he wants an 'honest discussion' about the UK and the EU returning to free movement of people. [94] His Labour party's 2024 manifesto ruled out free movement, the EU single market and a customs union. [94] Burnham has said a new deal could go 'all the way' to rejoining the EU. [94] Any big change would probably wait until a general election, due by 2029. [94]

    Why it matters — He said migration from Europe has changed over the past decade. [94]

  39. 40

    Two Philippine air force planes collide

    Two Philippine air force SF-260 training planes collided in flight on Friday and crashed at Fernando Air Base in Lipa, south of Manila, killing all four pilots. [95] Nobody on the ground was hurt. [95] The air force grounded its other SF-260s, which were bought from Italy, while it investigates. [95] It did not say how many are left. [95]

    Why it matters — The Philippine military is short of money while it faces long insurgencies and disputes with China in the South China Sea. [95]

  40. 41

    Pakistan's railways declare an emergency

    Pakistan Railways declared an emergency until 31 December after repeated derailments, including a recent crash near Multan that killed and injured passengers. [96] Railways Minister Hanif Abbasi cancelled all leave except sick leave, and all weekends and holidays, for railway officers and staff. [96] Officers must now travel by train on official trips, not by air or official car. [96] The heads of engineering and safety must report to the railways ministry every day. [96]

    Why it matters — The minister said nobody in operations will rest until faults in coaches, wagons, engines and signals are fixed. [96]

  41. 42

    Pakistan and the Taliban trade blame

    Pakistan's information ministry on Saturday rejected a claim by Afghanistan's Taliban government that it lacks the means to stir up violence in Pakistan. [97] Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid had said on X that unrest in Pakistan is not in Afghanistan's interest. [97] Pakistan cited a UN Security Council monitoring report and a US inspector-general's report. [97] The US report says the Taliban let the banned Pakistani Taliban, put at 4,000-6,000 fighters, operate from Afghan soil. [97]

    Why it matters — Pakistan wants the Taliban to stop Afghan soil being used for attacks inside Pakistan. [97]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a close campaign ends with rallies for its own side

When almost everyone has already chosen, a campaign gains more by getting its own supporters to vote than by changing anyone's mind.

The twist

In a close race, the easiest extra vote is not someone from the other side who changes their mind. It is one of your own supporters who would otherwise have stayed at home.

The picture

In Brazil's first round, the people who did not vote were about 15 times the gap between the two candidates.

How it works

  1. Most voters picked a side long ago
  2. Few undecided voters are left to win over
  3. So the votes still to win belong to supporters who might stay home
  4. Campaigns spend the last days on huge rallies and warnings about the other side
  5. The side that brings out more of its own people wins

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • Lula's rallies in Rio and Sao Paulo

    His side has filled the streets since the first round to bring back some of the 33 million Brazilians who did not vote then.

  • Obama's rally in Detroit

    It was billed as a 'get out the vote' event on the first day of early voting, aimed at Democrats who might not turn up.

  • Israel's fake-video campaign

    Both camps post videos showing how bad Israel will be if the other side wins, and Likud wanted an app that tracks who has voted.

  • Tinubu's launch in Kaduna

    He told a stadium full of his own supporters they 'must go out massively' to vote on 16 January.

Where you've seen this

Strike ballots

a union phones its own members to vote, because a ballot with too few voters can fail

Shops

getting old customers to come back is usually cheaper than finding new ones

School elections

a candidate whose friends all turn up can beat a better-liked one whose friends stay home

The catch

A crowd is not a vote count. The 1.1 million people on Copacabana still have to vote, and a frightening campaign can bring out the other side's voters too.

And the whole of it

The people who never go to a rally are inside this too. In Brazil's first round the 33 million who stayed home outnumbered Bolsonaro's lead about 15 times, and each of them will decide alone on Sunday whether to go.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Brazil and Serbia vote on Sunday and Israel on Tuesday, and in all three the polls are close enough that who turns up can decide the result. [5][8][9] Around those votes, Israel sealed Hebron and displaced about 2,000 Palestinians days before Israel's own vote, and a US analyst expects strikes on Iran only after the US midterms on 3 November. [33][26]

Why it works on us — A huge crowd on a beach looks like a result already won, so each side shows its rallies to tell its own supporters they are winning and must not stay home. [2]

Who gains

  • Flavio Bolsonaro — Every first-round winner in Brazil since 1989 has gone on to win, so the record is on his side going into Sunday. [99]
  • Families on Bolsa Familia, and 3.6 million small firms in Brazil — Lula raised the cash payments by 15% and wiped those firms' debts to Brazil's government before the runoff. [3]
  • Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich — Both went to the attack site near Hebron and promised a ferocious reply days before the vote. [32] Hebron's mayor says the operation is aimed at winning settlers' votes. [33]
  • Trump's Republican Party — Trump has said he will not strike Iran before 3 November, and a Brookings analyst says a strike would not help him at the polls in a war that has pushed up fuel prices. [26]
  • France's trade unions — Macron allowed only marches organised by recognised unions, so a legal protest in France now runs through them. [10]

Who pays

  • About 2,000 people in Hebron — They were forced from their homes in Ein Deir Baha, and Israel's defence minister says they cannot return until the operation ends. [33]
  • Palestinian workers in the West Bank — They are barred from settlements from Sunday and cannot cross at all on Israel's election day. [37]
  • Families in Sanaa and Hodeidah — Saudi-led strikes killed at least 16, including six women and a child in housing for factory workers, Houthi media said. [14]
  • The Daoussahak community in north-east Mali — Mali's army found 54 bodies in their camps near Menaka after an attack it blames on the Islamic State group's Sahel branch. [18]
  • Villagers in Binnari, Nigeria — Gunmen took their food and cash and killed at least 10, and Amnesty says the state left them at the mercy of gunmen. [70]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    Who wins Brazil, and whether the loser accepts it.

    Saturday's CNT/MDA poll had them 1.3 points apart, inside its margin of error. [5] Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of plotting a coup after he lost in 2022. [2]

  • 02

    Whether Serbia's vote is fair.

    Monitors have raised concern about detentions and government control of the media, and the 2023 vote was followed by claims of fraud. [22]

  • 03

    How many people Israel has driven out of Hebron.

    Israel's defence minister says about 2,000, Hebron's municipality said 1,500 by Saturday afternoon, and family counts run from 150 to 300 depending on the official. [33][32][36]

  • 04

    Whether and when the US strikes Iran again.

    Trump says he 'may have to finish it off' and also that a deal is possible. [77] A Brookings analyst expects strikes after 3 November, but no date has been given. [26]

  • 05

    Who carried out the attack on Jordan's church.

    No group has claimed it, the three gunmen are still free, and Jordan's interior minister says it is too early to link them to any known group. [98][16]

  • 06

    How many people died in Binnari, Nigeria.

    Police counted 10 bodies, survivors at least 20, and Amnesty International up to 50. [17][70]

  • 07

    How many people are still under the Nairobi rubble.

    The BBC says five are missing, and the Kenya Red Cross has 31 reports it is still checking. [89][90] The BBC says police are hunting the owner, while AP was told the registered owner is dead. [89][90]

  • 08

    When the Oleshky truce begins.

    Russia and Ukraine say firing stops at 01:00 GMT on 27 October, while the statement from Melania Trump, the US first lady, says it begins on 29 October. [63]

  • 09

    How many died in the Saudi strikes on Yemen.

    The toll of 16 comes only from Houthi media, and Saudi Arabia has not commented on the raids. [14][13]

04 Hope carry this

Three people kidnapped on election day in the Central African Republic flew home to Bangui on a UN flight this week, after 10 months held in the bush.

Also true today

  • Rescuers in Nairobi pulled a man alive from a collapsed building more than 24 hours after its floors came down.
  • About 1,300 people abused by Catholic clergy in New York will each receive at least $250,000 under an $800m settlement their lawyers say they all agreed to.

Across the beats