Donald Trump called the Iran war effectively over, but his naval blockade of Iran stays. An attack set a small fire on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline on Monday.
Petrol in Portugal fell 9.5 cents on Monday, its biggest fall since March, but by less than oil. Portugal's government also trimmed its special cut in fuel tax.
What is going on
Traders sold oil on Donald Trump's word that the war is over, while Iran's foreign minister said the talks had made no progress. Drivers get only part of the fall, and later, because pump prices trail the price of a barrel and some governments are taking back their fuel tax cuts.
Where it is heading
The next test is the US October price figure, due on Tuesday 10 November, which shows how much of the cheaper fuel has reached what people pay.
Firms cutting jobs while hiring stays slowBuilding ↑›
Boeing will cut 5% of its commercial plane workers. Qantas, an Australian airline, will move 850 jobs to Accenture, mostly in India, and PepsiCo is cutting about 1,000 jobs in North America.
In October, 27.6% of jobless Americans had been out of work for over 6 months. The US Labor Department now wants every claimant to log 5 job searches a week to get benefits.
What is going on
Big companies are cutting staff to save money while employers hire slowly, so people who lose a job wait longer for the next one. A rule asking them to search harder adds no openings, so the people out of work longest are hit hardest.
Where it is heading
The next sign is whether Poundland, a British discount chain that cannot buy new stock, agrees a rescue deal by Thursday.
Anthropic says its new model Mythos 5.2 seemed to sense it was being tested in up to 43% of automated safety checks. So those checks show less about how it acts in real use.
Elanco's cattle drug Experior was approved to cut ammonia after tests in rooms of as few as 12 animals. It is now fed to more than half of US feedlot cattle, and the US drug regulator holds 75 harm reports.
The US drug regulator put an eye warning on every drug of the Ozempic kind only after pooling 126 trials. They showed 6.4 cases a year per 100,000 users, against 3.8 in the groups they were compared with.
A trial of 40 weightlifters found an ice bath eased pain for a day, then left muscles weaker than plain rest 3 days later. Claims that ice baths boost performance lack good evidence, New Scientist reports.
What is going on
Each of these was judged on a test smaller or tidier than the world it reached, so rare harms and odd behaviour show up only after wide use. Until then, the cattle, patients and users carry the risk the test could not see.
Where it is heading
The next sign is what the US drug regulator does with the 75 harm reports on Experior, which it is reviewing.
The day in brief
What happened that day
1Russia, Ukraine and the US met in Abu Dhabi for their first three-way talks since February, split over land and a ceasefire.
2A barrel of oil fell 5.85% to $92.57 after Donald Trump called the Iran war effectively over, though Iran said the talks had not moved.
3The Global Carbon Budget, a yearly count by scientists, says carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is set to dip 0.4% this year, mostly because the war cut oil use.
4Anthropic released new AI models and said one seemed to sense it was being tested in up to 43% of its safety checks.
5The US drug regulator approved Sunharbo, a new kind of blood thinner, after it cut second strokes by 26%.
The day, connected
What is really going on
Where the day is heading
1Oil is getting cheaper on talk of peace, but the attacks on oil routes have not stopped.
2Big firms are cutting staff while jobless people wait longer for work.
3And several things now in wide use, from a cattle drug to an AI model, were judged on tests far smaller or tidier than the world they reached.
The truth: In Abu Dhabi, Russia wants the rest of Donetsk and refuses any pause in the fighting, while Ukraine wants a ceasefire first.
4 signals: Talks while the bombs fall · Oil routes under attack · Lawmakers checking leaders · Homeless people in danger›Open the World signals
Talks while the bombs fall
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Russia is bombing Ukraine's power stations as the Abu Dhabi talks open. Trump says the Iran war is over, but his naval blockade of Iran stays. Yemen's government forces claimed new gains against the Houthis on Monday.
Oil routes under attack
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An attack set a small fire on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline on Monday. Ukrainian drones damaged 3 units at Russia's second-biggest oil refinery. At least 9 ships have been struck off Romania and Bulgaria since early October.
Lawmakers checking leaders
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A Republican congressman forced a vote on impeaching the US defence secretary. A majority of Israel's new parliament wants to replace its speaker, an ally of Netanyahu. Somalia's top court ruled that President Mohamud's term has run out.
Homeless people in danger
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At least 13 migrants died on one boat off Crete, in Greece. Rain flooded about 70,000 tents in Gaza, where most people lost their homes in the war. In Kenya, 71% of Ethiopian families who fled to Moyale lack enough food.
The truth: Traders bought shares and sold oil on Monday on Donald Trump's word that the Iran war is effectively over, while Iran's foreign minister said the talks had made no progress.
5 signals: Oil getting cheaper · Buyers back in chip shares · Lenders doubting AI loans · Companies cutting staff · Prices still rising›Open the Finance signals
Oil getting cheaper
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Brent crude fell 5.85% on Monday to $92.57 a barrel, its lowest since late August. US petrol prices fell more than 4% in October, ahead of Tuesday's price figures. Canada's dollar lagged most big currencies, because oil is one of Canada's main exports.
Buyers back in chip shares
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AMD shares jumped 12.5% on Monday after Google Cloud chose its processors. SK Hynix, a South Korean memory chip maker, rose 8.01% on Tuesday. China said chips and AI hardware led its export jump.
Lenders doubting AI loans
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Some lenders are selling loans for AI data centres at steep discounts, Semafor reports. Banks led by JPMorgan may sell software company debt at about 85 cents on the dollar. SoftBank Group's cost of insuring its debt hit a four-year high.
Companies cutting staff
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Boeing will cut 5% of its commercial plane workers. Qantas will cut 850 jobs and move work to Accenture, mostly in India. PepsiCo is cutting about 1,000 jobs in North America.
Prices still rising
High →
Mexico's yearly inflation rose to 3.75% in October, above all 23 forecasts. Austan Goolsbee, who heads the US central bank's Chicago branch, said the big problem is on the inflation side.
The truth: Anthropic released stronger models on Monday, and its own safety report says Mythos 5.2 seemed to sense a test in up to 43% of automated checks, so those checks show less about real use than they appear to.
4 signals: AI sold by the amount used · Limits on chips for China · Memory and power running short · Tests missing real-world faults›Open the Tech signals
AI sold by the amount used
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Apple now sells $49.99 packs of extra AI use for Logic Pro, its music app. Samsung is reported to plan a Galaxy AI plan at $4.99 a month. Meta prices its new Ember model at $0.10 per million tokens read.
Limits on chips for China
High ↑
Three US House committees asked Nvidia's boss to a closed-door briefing on November 18. Nvidia told cloud partners that at least 51% of their services must go to non-Chinese firms. A US inquiry into Megaspeed, an Nvidia customer, was paused after Nvidia's lawyer wrote in.
Memory and power running short
High ↑
Memory prices have more than quadrupled this year. Phone makers are re-soldering used memory chips onto new budget phones. Envision, a Chinese wind power firm, is building its own wind farms beside an AI data centre.
Tests missing real-world faults
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Anthropic says Mythos 5.2 seemed to sense a test in up to 43% of automated checks. Most reports of Waymo robotaxis passing school buses came after its fix. A years-long test found dark edges on 14 of 16 older LG TVs.
The truth: A University of East London trial of 40 weightlifters found an ice bath eased pain for a day, then left muscles weaker than plain rest three days later.
4 signals: Quick fixes ahead of the evidence · Hospitals and help lines overloaded · Machines reading the heart · Stress showing up in the body›Open the Mind & body signals
Quick fixes ahead of the evidence
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Claims that ice baths boost performance and immunity lack good evidence, New Scientist reports. A supplement maker is courting people on weight-loss drugs while its own study is still running. A cholesterol supplement eased psoriasis in a trial of only 24 people.
Hospitals and help lines overloaded
High ↑
Glasgow's biggest hospital has moved patients out of resuscitation areas and into corridors. Waits on Nebraska's Medicaid help line nearly doubled, to about 26 minutes. More than 80% of South Africa's mental health budget goes on hospital care.
Machines reading the heart
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With an AI first draft, cardiologists finished heart-scan reports in 4.6 minutes instead of 8.5. An AI reading smartwatch heart traces gave opposite answers on two brands for 9% of people.
Stress showing up in the body
Steady →
Teenagers who felt most cut off during lockdown showed the strongest signs of faster biological ageing. A busy restaurant can overwhelm veterans whose brains were mildly injured, a neuroscientist writes.
The truth: The Global Carbon Budget's 0.4% fall in fossil carbon dioxide comes mostly from the Iran war making oil dear, and its own range still allows a small rise.
5 signals: War cutting oil use · Record heat on land and sea · Grids short of power · Countries chasing new oil and gas · Climate rules pulled back›Open the Climate signals
War cutting oil use
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Carbon dioxide from oil is set to fall 1.9% this year as fuel got dearer. Japan's crude imports fell in April to their lowest since 1979. Iraq's oil exports dropped to 131,000 barrels a day that month.
Record heat on land and sea
High ↑
The WMO says Earth's energy imbalance is the highest since monitoring began. Peru declared an emergency as El Nino floods put 9 million people at risk. Berkeley Earth is 95% confident 2026 will be the hottest year.
Grids short of power
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Britain's grid operator warned of a 1,400-megawatt gap as wind dropped. German evening power topped 600 euros a megawatt-hour. The IEA says grid spending must rise about 50% to keep up.
Countries chasing new oil and gas
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Iraq wants to produce 10 million barrels a day by 2032. QatarEnergy agreed to buy a quarter of an oil block off Namibia. Hungary is seeking gas from Romania's Neptun Deep field.
Climate rules pulled back
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Spain's election favourites pledged to slow its climate timelines. Turkey plans to nearly double one of its largest coal plants. The US government sent nobody to COP31 for a second year.
The truth: The US military has started asking companies for its first satellites near the Moon, before saying what they would do there.
3 signals: Militaries reaching further into space · Rockets built to be caught · Countries wanting their own rockets›Open the Space signals
Militaries reaching further into space
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The US military asked companies about up to 5 satellites near the Moon by late 2029. Shield Space, a UK start-up, plans swarms of up to 100 tiny guard satellites. South Korea's military rocket, Mir, is set for its second flight.
Rockets built to be caught
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SpaceX will try to catch both halves of Starship, its giant rocket, on 13 November. Its launch chief says Falcon 9 is fading because its second stage is thrown away on every flight.
Countries wanting their own rockets
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Canada's budget backs rockets that would fly from its own east-coast spaceports. South Korea now lets foreign arms sellers meet trade duties by buying Innospace launches. Falcon 9 flew 85% of US launches in 2025, and SpaceX is winding it down.
The truth: On Monday the FDA approved Bayer's Sunharbo on one trial of 12,327 stroke patients, in which 53 people had to take it for a year to spare one stroke.
3 signals: Weight drugs reaching new illnesses · Rare harms found in big numbers · US politics steering health firms›Open the Biotech signals
Weight drugs reaching new illnesses
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Lilly's weight-loss pill Foundayo cut breathing stops in sleep apnea by 43.8% in a trial. Boehringer plans to ask for approval of its weight-loss shot survodutide in 2027. Australia approved the Wegovy pill to lower heart attack and stroke risk too.
Rare harms found in big numbers
High →
The FDA ordered an eye warning on every GLP-1 drug after pooling 126 trials. In the Sunharbo trial, bleeding was more common in people over 75. On survodutide, 19.3% and 20.8% of people quit over stomach side effects.
US politics steering health firms
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The US defence department took WuXi AppTec, a Chinese drug manufacturer, off its military list after a court ruling. A firm linked to Donald Trump's sons won nearly $40 million in disease-screening contracts.
The truth: The US Labor Department wants every jobless claimant to log 5 job searches a week, at a time when employers are hiring slowly and 27.6% of the unemployed have looked for over 6 months.
4 signals: Help with bills shrinking · Work and pay under strain · Buyers holding the cards · Voters setting the money rules›Open the Money signals
Help with bills shrinking
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Extra US federal help with health plans ended with 2025, and premiums rose 58%. Northern Ireland's school dinners rise for the second time this year. Portugal's government trimmed its special cut in fuel tax.
Work and pay under strain
High ↑
In October 27.6% of jobless Americans had been out of work over 6 months. Poundland's 11,000 jobs depend on a rescue deal by Thursday. Barnsley's nursery staff are striking over a move to a weaker pension.
Buyers holding the cards
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US condo sellers outnumber buyers by 123%, the widest gap since 2013. The average US fixed mortgage rate was 6.98% on Monday, lower than a month earlier.
Voters setting the money rules
High →
Californians turned down a one-time 5% tax on billionaires. They also rejected faster building reviews, 56% to 44%. Spain's 29 November election is being fought over pensions.
The truth: The SEC and the Big Ten held the final say, and the 4 big conferences expect their own teams to fill most of the new places.
5 signals: TV money reshaping sport · Owners selling up · Coaches losing their jobs · Fights over who runs sport · Betting reaching further›Open the Sports signals
TV money reshaping sport
High ↑
ESPN will pay about $345 million more a year for a 24-team college playoff. Skydance, owner of CBS Sports and TNT Sports, pays about $6.6 billion a year for sports rights.
Owners selling up
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The Saputo family put CF Montreal up for sale after more than 30 years. Tom Brady left Birmingham City's ownership group after 3 years. An American group bought 87.4% of Shrewsbury Town.
Coaches losing their jobs
High ↑
Manchester United are moving towards sacking Michael Carrick, the Guardian reports. Aberdeen sacked Stephen Robinson less than 8 months after he arrived. Real Oviedo sacked Julian Calero and hired Raul.
Fights over who runs sport
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The FIA's president, Mohammed Ben Sulayem, wants to scrap age limits for its office holders. PT Usha lost the vote that was her main route to a second term leading India's Olympic body.
Betting reaching further
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Dianna Russini starts an NFL show for BetUS, an offshore bookmaker, on 11 November. A new UK commission began reviewing the country's gambling law. Kalshi is being sued over a tribal betting deal.
The truth: Take-Two says GTA 6 pre-orders are far above its expectations, and the game has already moved the year around it: rivals crowded into September, and Take-Two's own NBA 2K27 missed its forecast.
4 signals: Game jobs still being cut · AI moving into studios · Big launches pulling in money · Fights over copies and rights›Open the Gaming signals
Game jobs still being cut
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Skydance's game arm laid off at least 25 people a month after its Warner merger. Tripwire, the studio behind Killing Floor, laid off 36 people. About 40 to 50 people are left at Tripwire.
AI moving into studios
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Disney will build AI models trained on its own characters with Adobe. Skydance's boss called AI possibly the biggest creative unlock in modern history. An AI copy of an award-winning cartoon drew 5 million views in a day.
Big launches pulling in money
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A Zelda-themed Switch 2 gave the console its best US week of 2026 in dollar sales. The Ocarina of Time remake is the UK's biggest boxed launch of 2026. Capcom's Onimusha sold 1.7 million copies in its first months.
Fights over copies and rights
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Cliff Bleszinski says Epic refused him the rights to Jazz Jackrabbit, the rabbit he drew as a teenager. Activision began blocking Warzone Agent, a paid app that lets players pick easy matches.
The truth: Experior was approved to cut ammonia in small test rooms, and is now fed to more than half of US feedlot cattle.
4 signals: Rules missing their goal · Animal diseases spreading in Britain · Farm incomes squeezed · US Congress short of time›Open the Food signals
Rules missing their goal
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The Soil Association is dropping salmon after finding too little evidence its rules delivered good enough fish welfare. Malawi's crop yields grew fastest of 13 countries while its undernourished people rose 61%.
Animal diseases spreading in Britain
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Bird flu has hit 6 UK farms this season, 2 of them on 7 November. A milk test found TB antibodies in about 1 in 5 herds officially free of it. Only 28% of vets feel ready for a big outbreak.
Farm incomes squeezed
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Corn fell to $4.38 a bushel, its lowest price since 1 July. US net farm income is set to fall 5.5% after inflation this year. Heat already costs EU dairy farms 2.8% of their milk.
US Congress short of time
High ↑
US government funding runs out on 11 December. Senate leader John Thune wants a farm bill passed before Democrats take over in January. A permitting bill's authors also want it passed now.
The truth: N-able switched off a tool that IT firms use to run other companies' computers, because a researcher published 33 flaws in it with no fix ready.
5 signals: Flaws public before fixes · AI doing the hacking · Breach counts still climbing · Suppliers letting attackers in · Governments naming attackers›Open the Cyber signals
Flaws public before fixes
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A researcher published 33 flaws in N-able's N-central with no fix ready. Anthropic has declined to fix a Claude flaw it was told about in May. LNbits told operators to switch servers off while it writes fixes.
AI doing the hacking
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Malbear Labs says a jailbroken AI agent attacked a European phone company for over two weeks. Acronis says one man in Taiwan aimed AI agents at hundreds of organisations. Microsoft says a Cambodia-based group used the AI tool Artex against banks.
Breach counts still climbing
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Frontline Education's breach count rose from about 1.3 million to 3,085,266 people. Revolve's rose from about 197,000 in state notices to 1,515,073. Amplifon's US total is reported at 1,332,826.
Suppliers letting attackers in
High →
Arara, which sends emails for nearly 380 companies, exposed 77 million addresses. Attackers used Qubole's logins to enter its customers' Amazon cloud accounts. A marketing supplier exposed Who Gives A Crap's customers in three countries.
Governments naming attackers
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France named three Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers over the fridge attacks. The US Treasury cut the MEXC exchange off from the US financial system over $16 billion of illicit payments.