Fossil fuel carbon dioxide set to dip 0.4% in 2026 as the Iran war cuts oil use, while peat fires push total emissions to a record 43.3bn tonnes

The stories

28 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   Fossil fuel carbon dioxide set to dip 0.4% in 2026 as the Iran war cuts oil use, while peat fires push total emissions to a record 43.3bn tonnes

   38.2bn tonnes

   of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels expected in 2026, 0.4% less than in 2025

   oil falls 1.9% while coal rises 0.6% [1]

   43.3bn tonnes

   of carbon dioxide in all, fossil fuels and land use, a record

   peat fires pushed land emissions up to 5.1bn tonnes [1]

   -1.5% to +0.6%

   the range around this year's projected change in fossil emissions

   so a small rise cannot yet be ruled out [1]

   150bn tonnes

   left to emit for an even chance of holding warming to 1.5C

   less than 4 years at this year's rate [1]

   What happened

   • Carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is set to fall about 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2bn tonnes. [1]
   • The figure comes from the Global Carbon Budget, a yearly count by more than 140 scientists. [3]
   • It was presented on Tuesday at COP31, the UN climate summit in Antalya, Turkey. [2]
   • It is only the third fall this century, after 2009 and 2020. [4] Those fell about 2% and 6%. [3]
   • Oil drove the fall: its carbon dioxide is set to drop 1.9%, one of the largest falls on record. [1]
   • In the war, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about 20% of the world's oil and gas. [3]
   • Petrol and diesel cost 10% to 50% more than in 2025 in the US, China and the EU. [1]
   • So drivers bought less fuel, and many switched to electric cars. [2]
   • Growth in electric cars caused about 1 in 5 tonnes of this year's fall in oil emissions. [1]
   • Coal went the other way, with its carbon dioxide up 0.6%. [1] Gas fell 0.3%, almost flat. [1]
   • Fossil emissions are set to fall 0.9% in China, 1.3% in the US and 1.5% in the EU. [1]
   • India's are set to rise 4.4%. [1] Most of that rise comes from burning more coal. [2]
   • Over 2016-25, 40 countries cut emissions while their economies grew, up from 22 in 2006-15. [1]
   • Carbon dioxide from land use, such as cutting and burning forests, is set to rise to 5.1bn tonnes. [1]
   • Peat fires, almost all lit by people, and forest damage in south-east Asia drove that rise. [1]
   • So total carbon dioxide, fossil and land together, is set for a record 43.3bn tonnes, up from 42.8bn. [1]
   • Rising energy use would have added 0.78bn tonnes this year. [1] Solar, wind and electric cars cancelled 0.54bn of it. [1]
   • The rest of the fall came mostly from high prices and short supply, the researchers say. [1]
   • Solar and wind avoided about 4.1bn tonnes in 2025, up from 0.28bn in 2010. [1]
   • Through 2028, clean power and electric cars offset 64% to 79% of the rise from demand, a study finds. [6]
   • To keep an even chance of holding warming to 1.5C, the world can emit about 150bn more tonnes. [1]
   • At this year's pace that lasts less than 4 years. [1] A budget for 2C would last about 24. [1]
   • 'A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change,' Peters said. [2]

   Who is involved

   Glen Peters of Cicero, a Norwegian climate institute, is one of the report's authors. [4]

   Le Quere, of the University of East Anglia in the UK, also worked on the report. [3]

   • Global Carbon Budget a yearly count by more than 140 scientists
   • Glen Peters a researcher at Cicero, a climate institute in Norway, and a report author; he says one year's drop is not a peak [2]
   • Corinne Le Quere a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia and a report author; she expects a rebound if oil gets cheap [3]
   • The Global Carbon Project a team of more than 140 scientists that counts the world's carbon dioxide each year; it published the 2026 budget [3]
   • Bill Hare head of Climate Analytics, a research group not involved; he calls the fall statistically indistinguishable from zero [2]

   How it unfolded

   1. June 2026 a strong El Nino begins
   2. 2027 land expected to take up less carbon
   3. 2009 the financial crisis cuts fossil carbon dioxide about 2% [3]
   4. 2020 Covid cuts it about 6% [3]
   5. Feb 2026 the Iran war begins and Hormuz is blockaded [3]
   6. 10 Nov the Global Carbon Budget projects a 0.4% fall, shown at COP31 [2]

   Why it matters

   If oil prices fall back to pre-war levels, emissions will most likely rise again, says Corinne Le Quere. [3]

   More than 190 countries are at COP31 for 2 weeks of talks on the climate crisis. [2]

   How it works

   Carbon-cycle scientists keep a budget of the air: carbon added by people, minus what land and sea take back. [1]

   Over 2016-25 the ocean took up 27% of emissions and land 22%. [1] The other 48% stayed in the air. [1]

   Seen it before

   A leaky bucket under a running tap fills only by what pours in faster than it leaks out.

   The truth

   • What is really going on The Global Carbon Budget's 0.4% fall in fossil carbon dioxide comes mostly from the Iran war making oil dear, and its own range still allows a small rise. [1]Counting fires and forest loss as well, total emissions are set for a record 43.3bn tonnes as COP31 opens. [1]
   • Why it works on people A first fall in years, with a minus sign in front of it, feels more certain than a range that runs from a fall to a rise.
   • The 2026 number is a projection, with 0.4% in the middle. [1] It could land anywhere from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise. [1]
   • Oil's own range runs from a 2.6% fall to a 1.2% fall, so that drop is clear. [1]
   • Who gains Oil producers outside the Gulf — With Gulf oil blocked, they reaped windfall gains, a University of Melbourne expert says, which pushes the hunt for oil elsewhere. [4]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the fall in fossil emissions outlasts the war.

     The report's authors say emissions would most likely bounce back if oil returns to pre-war prices, and nobody knows when the strait reopens. [3]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Which figure for 2026 fossil emissions is right in one copy of the AP report.

     The Hindu's copy of the AP story gives 42.2bn tonnes from fossil fuels, while the report's own figure, as Carbon Brief and The New York Times give it, is 38.2bn; we use 38.2bn. [4][1][5]

   • Nobody knows yet

     How much carbon the land will take up in 2027.

     The carbon cycle reacts months after the weather, so this El Nino's effect on forests and soils will only show next year. [1]

   Good news

   • Solar and wind kept about 4.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide out of the air in 2025, up from 0.28bn in 2010.
   • Forty countries cut their fossil emissions over 2016-25 while their economies grew, up from 22 in the decade before.

   What comes next

   This El Nino is expected to weaken how much carbon the land takes up in 2027, the report says. [1]

1. 02

   Earth is trapping heat faster than ever

   What happened

   • The WMO, the UN's weather agency, says Earth's energy imbalance hit its highest level since monitoring began. [7]
   • The imbalance is the gap between the sun's energy coming in and the energy Earth sends back out. [7]
   • It grew 0.3 watts a square metre a decade over 2001-2025. [7] Over 1960-2025 the rate was 0.13. [7]
   • January to September 2026 averaged about 1.47C above the pre-industrial level, the WMO says. [8]
   • That would make 2023 to 2026 the 4 warmest years since records began. [7]
   • Glaciers lost more than 400 billion tonnes of ice, the report says. [7]

   Who is involved

   • WMO the UN's weather agency

   Why it matters

   The trapped heat feeds stronger heatwaves, droughts and tropical storms, the WMO says. [7]

   How it works

   Climate scientists call this Earth's energy budget: energy in from the sun, against energy out as heat.

   Greenhouse gases leave the incoming energy the same but let less heat out, says Bill McGuire, a hazards scientist. [7]

   Seen it before

   A room with the heater on and the windows shut gets warmer every hour.

   Good news

   • Countries with early warning systems for disasters rose from 55 in 2015 to 136 last year. [9]

1. 03

   Three counts disagree on 2026's heat

   What happened

   • Berkeley Earth, an independent US research group, is 95% confident 2026 will be the hottest year on record. [11]
   • The record so far is 2024. [11] The EU's Copernicus service puts the chance 2026 equals or beats it at 20%. [12]
   • Copernicus says 2026 is on track to be the second-hottest year. [12] The WMO says only that it will be among the 4 warmest. [11]
   • The WMO's John Kennedy said the final numbers might show 2026 'close to the top'. [9]
   • 33 countries broke October heat records, an AFP count of Copernicus data finds. [12]

   Why it matters

   With El Nino warming the end of the year, the 2026 figure is likely to rise further, the WMO says. [8]

   How it works

   Why a 0.4% dip in carbon is too small to call

   Statisticians give a forecast as a range, and this year's runs from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise, so nobody can yet say emissions fell.

   The twist

   A forecast is only as sure as its range. Oil's whole range is a fall, so oil really fell. The total's range reaches up to a rise, so nobody can yet say emissions went down.

   The picture

   12345

   −3% change in 2026−1% change in 20261% change in 2026

   1. 1oil, lowest−2.6% change in 2026
   2. 2oil, highest−1.2% change in 2026
   3. 3all fuels, lowest−1.5% change in 2026
   4. 4all fuels, highest0.6% change in 2026
   5. 5no change0% change in 2026

   Step by step

   1. 1 A count of a whole year is partly an estimate
   2. 2 So scientists give a range, not just one number
   3. 3 This year's range runs from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise
   4. 4 The range includes zero, so a rise is still possible
   5. 5 Oil's range, a 2.6% to a 1.2% fall, stays below zero
   6. 6 So the oil fall is clear, and the total fall is not

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Three counts disagree on 2026's heat

     Berkeley Earth puts the chance of a record at 95% and Copernicus at 20%, because each is reading a year with 2 months still to come.

   • Ford's car batteries hold up after 100,000 miles

     Ford gives the spread as well as the average: 95% of cars sit between 87% and 97%, so one car can sit 10 points from another.

   • Storm Charles heads for Portugal and Spain

     The weather models agree on the storm's first track and split on the next one, so warnings stay open to an upgrade.

   Where you've seen this

   Opinion polls

   a poll of 51% against 49%, with a 3-point range, cannot name the winner

   School tests

   two pupils who score 71 and 72 on one test may know the same amount

   Medicine trials

   a drug is called effective only when its whole range of results is on the side of helping

   The catch

   A range that crosses zero does not mean nothing changed. It means the count cannot tell yet, and next year's figure, with a full year of data, will narrow it.

   And the whole of it

   Negotiators at COP31, drivers choosing a car and farmers watching El Nino all act on one middle number this week. The true figure for 2026 could still turn out to be a small rise, and none of them can see that from where they stand.

   The truth

   • Each ranking is a forecast made with 2 months of the year still to come. [11]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether 2026 will be the hottest year on record.

     Berkeley Earth is 95% confident it will be, while Copernicus gives a 20% chance and the WMO says only top 4, with 2 months still to count. [11][12]

1. 04

   Peru declares an El Nino emergency

   What happened

   • Peru declared a state of emergency across much of the country on Tuesday over El Nino flooding. [12]
   • More than 9 million people, nearly 1 in 3 Peruvians, face a high risk of floods and landslides. [12]
   • Downpours have already flooded parts of the northern Tumbes and Piura regions. [12]
   • Scientists estimate this El Nino's extra heat alone could kill around 450,000 people worldwide. [13]
   • The Philippines set aside over $980 million for an El Nino plan for its farms. [12] Its rice harvest fell 18% in the 3 months to September. [12]

   Who is involved

   • Peru's government declared an emergency over El Nino floods

   How it unfolded

   El Nino is a warming of the tropical Pacific that shifts rain and drought around the world. [12]

   1. Now rain fills hydro dams
   2. Early 2027 drought expected

   Why it matters

   Floods can destroy stored food and the roads that carry it to market. [12]

   How it works

   Economists say food prices move on expected shortages, not only real ones.

   'Markets react to expectations of future shortages,' says Maximo Torero, the FAO's chief economist. [12]

   Seen it before

   When people hear a shop will run out of bread, they buy extra before it does.

   The truth

   • The FAO asked for $202 million to prepare 22 high-risk countries, and got 1 dollar in 5. [12]
   • Who pays People in northern Peru — More than 9 million face floods and landslides, and some homes in Tumbes and Piura are already under water. [12]

   What comes next

   Sri Lanka expects severe drought in early 2027, which would push it onto dearer power from coal and diesel plants. [12]

2. 05

   Rain fails to refill the Middle East

   What happened

   • The Middle East got unusually heavy rain in 2026, after a dry 2025, the WMO says. [10]
   • Yet the water stored there, underground and in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, is still below normal. [10]
   • Worldwide, 42% of areas checked had low water stores in 2025, against a usual 25%. [10]
   • Water stored on land has been falling worldwide since 2014, the WMO says. [10]

   How it unfolded

   1. 2025 dry
   2. 2026 unusually heavy rain
   3. Now El Nino strengthens
   4. 2027 more extremes expected

   Why it matters

   Even heavy rain may not make up for years of water shortage, the WMO's findings show. [10]

   How it works

   Hydrologists call water held in rock and soil groundwater, and it refills far more slowly than rivers do.

   That is why the region's stores stayed below normal even in a rainy 2026. [10]

   Seen it before

   One big payment cannot refill a bank account that was emptied over years.

   What comes next

   The WMO warns a powerful El Nino could bring more extreme weather in 2027. [10]

3. 06

   US Senate opens debate on fast permits

   What happened

   • The US Senate voted 73 to 25 on Monday to open debate on a bill to speed up project approvals. [14]
   • It would speed permits for power plants, power lines and mines. [14]
   • It would also make big data centres pay more for grid upgrades. [14]
   • The vote did not pass the bill. [15] It was the first of several votes on procedure. [15]

   Who is involved

   Democrats Martin Heinrich and Sheldon Whitehouse wrote it with Republicans Shelley Moore Capito and Mike Lee. [14]

   Labour unions and energy companies back the bill. [14] Environmental groups and many tribes oppose it. [15]

   • Martin Heinrich Democrat, New Mexico
   • Sheldon Whitehouse Democrat, Rhode Island
   • Shelley Moore Capito Republican, West Virginia
   • Mike Lee Republican, Utah
   • Backers unions and energy firms
   • Opponents green groups and tribes

   How it unfolded

   Democrats won the US Congress in last week's election, and their new members sit from January. [15]

   1. Monday debate opened, 73 to 25
   2. Next more procedural votes
   3. Last week Democrats win the US Congress
   4. January new members take their seats
   5. Senate more votes, then passage
   6. House must pass it before January

   Why it matters

   Tribal groups say it would weaken the US government's duty to consult them on projects that affect them. [15]

   The truth

   • Senator Alan Armstrong pushed a part that limits states' power to block gas pipelines. [16] His former company could gain, Inside Climate News reports. [16]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US permitting bill becomes law before January.

     Monday's vote only opened debate, and the US House would still have to pass it before new members arrive in January. [15]

   What comes next

   If the US Senate passes it, the US House must pass it too, before new members arrive in January. [15]

4. 07

   COP31 opens late, and admits 1.5C is lost

   What happened

   • COP31, the UN's yearly climate summit, opened in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday. [17]
   • Turkey expects 100,000 visitors, including at least 95 heads of state. [17]
   • The opening ceremony began an hour and a half late, without explanation. [18] Talks on money in the agenda had run late on Sunday. [18]
   • UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the fuel price shock was 'spreading inflation like a cancer'. [17]
   • The summit concedes for the first time that warming will pass 1.5C, ABC News reports. [19]
   • Australia's Chris Bowen, who runs the talks, said the world can still return below 1.5C by working together. [17]

   Who is involved

   • Chris Bowen Australia's climate minister; he runs the negotiations

   How it unfolded

   1. Sunday night talks on money in the agenda
   2. Monday the opening starts late
   3. Monday talks open
   4. Wed-Thu leaders' summit

   Why it matters

   African countries wanted money for adapting to climate harm as its own agenda item, and did not get it. [18]

   The truth

   • The Guardian says the talks began without a fight over the agenda. [17] Dawn says negotiators were locked in talks on it late on Sunday. [18]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether COP31's agenda was settled without a fight.

     The Guardian reports no agenda fight, while Dawn reports late-night talks over money items and a start an hour and a half late. [17][18]

   What comes next

   World leaders meet on Wednesday and Thursday for their own summit inside the talks. [17]

5. 08

   Health gets 1% of climate money

   What happened

   • Only about 1% of climate finance goes to health, Dennis Tanzler of Adelphi, a research group, said at COP31. [21]
   • Heat was linked to about 710,000 deaths worldwide in 2023, the Lancet Countdown, a climate and health report, estimates. [21]
   • About 71% of those deaths are put down to human-caused climate change. [21]
   • Europe's summer heat caused over 30,000 extra deaths, about 16,000 of them in one June week. [21]
   • Stiell called the climate crisis 'a global health crisis of pandemic proportions'. [22]

   Why it matters

   Clinics and hospitals face more heat, floods and drought, with little money to get ready. [21]

   How it works

   Public health experts call getting ready for weather you cannot avoid adaptation.

   Stiell asks whether clinics stay open in a heatwave and have safe water after a flood. [22]

   Seen it before

   A school stocks water and fans before a hot week, not during it.

   The truth

   • Brazil's adaptation plan has a health chapter, but Daniel Porcel of the Talanoa Institute says money is short. [21]
   • Who pays Clinics and hospitals facing heat and floods — Only about 1% of climate finance reaches health, so many cannot pay to get ready. [21]
6. 09

   US government skips COP31 again

   What happened

   • For a second year, the US government sent nobody to the UN climate talks. [20]
   • A White House official said: 'This summit rejects reality.' [20]
   • About 20 members of the US Congress, all Democrats, are going anyway, without the usual State Department help. [20]
   • Charities are paying for their trip instead. [20]
   • A UN report says the US emitted an extra 133 million tons last year. [20] Other big economies cut or slowed. [20]

   How it unfolded

   This is the last COP with the US as an official member, after Trump's exit from the UN climate treaty. [20]

   1. This year last COP as a member
   2. Next US outside the treaty

   Why it matters

   The midterm result 'opens the door to America returning to the climate fight', says Mohamed Adow. [20]

7. 10

   COP31's host burns more coal

   What happened

   • Turkey, the COP31 host, has approved more than 33 gigawatts of battery projects since 2022. [23]
   • Wind and solar now make 22% of its electricity, up from 4.5% a decade ago. [23]
   • But its coal power grew by about a third in a decade, and in 2024 overtook Germany and Poland. [23]
   • Coal and gas make about 55% of Turkey's electricity. [19]
   • In June, Turkey announced plans to nearly double one of its largest coal plants. [23]

   How it unfolded

   1. June plan to double a big coal plant
   2. November hosts COP31

   Why it matters

   Its climate target lets emissions rise until 2038, with net zero set for 2053. [23]

   The truth

   • Umit Sahin of the Istanbul Policy Center calls Turkey's climate goals 'highly insufficient'. [23]

   Good news

   • About 97% of new coal projects in Turkey were cancelled in the last decade, Beyond Fossil Fuels says. [23]
8. 11

   Europe hunts for more oil and gas

   What happened

   • All 27 EU countries backed the EU's COP31 position, while several hunt for more oil and gas. [24]
   • Hungary's energy minister, Istvan Kapitany, said it is discussing gas from Romania's Neptun Deep field. [24]
   • Hungary also wants more access to Croatian and Greek terminals that land gas shipped as liquid. [24]
   • Croatia wants its Krk gas terminal to cut its neighbours' use of Russian gas. [24]
   • Gyorgy Bacsa, boss of MOL, Hungary's big oil firm, said the extra cost is 'no longer a marginal issue'. [24]

   Who is involved

   • Istvan Kapitany Hungary's energy minister

   Why it matters

   Bacsa warned that soaring bills could seriously hurt the Hungarian and Slovak economies. [24]

   How it works

   Energy planners call relying on just a few suppliers concentration risk.

   'If someone stands on one leg, security is the most important question,' Kapitany said. [24]

   Seen it before

   A team with only one goalkeeper is stuck the day he is hurt.

9. 12

   Grid spending lags new power plants

   What happened

   • Spending on new power plants has risen almost 70% since 2015, to $1 trillion a year, the IEA says. [25]
   • Spending on grids, the wires that carry the power, grew at less than half that pace. [25]
   • To meet demand to 2030, grid spending must rise about 50% from $400 billion a year, the IEA says. [25]
   • 'The grid has become a real bottleneck,' said Jan Rosenow, an energy professor at Oxford University. [25]

   How it unfolded

   The UN launched a Global Grids Accelerator in September to fund grids in Africa and Southeast Asia. [25]

   1. September UN grid fund launched
   2. November grids on the summit's agenda

   Why it matters

   Old grids often cannot take all the power that new solar and wind farms make. [25]

   How it works

   Power engineers say a power plant is only as useful as the lines that reach its users.

   Delays in building grids will keep fossil plants running longer and raise emissions, the IEA warns. [25]

   Seen it before

   A new shop is no use if no road reaches it.

10. 13

    Spain's favourites would slow climate rules

    What happened

    • Spain's People's Party pledged to stop 'unrealistic timelines' for climate goals if it wins on 29 November. [26]
    • The party, led by Alberto Nunez Feijoo, is the favourite in the national election. [26]
    • Polls point to a majority for the PP with Vox, a far-right party hostile to climate policy. [26]
    • Its plan would review climate rules sector by sector, weighing technology, demand and the rest of the world. [26]

    Who is involved

    • Alberto Nunez Feijoo leader of the People's Party, Spain's main centre-right party
    • People's Party centre-right
    • Vox far-right, hostile to climate policy

    How it unfolded

    Under Socialist Pedro Sanchez, Spain has pushed hard for EU climate rules like the carbon market. [26]

    In November 2025 the PP voted against the EU's 2040 climate goal in the European Parliament. [26]

    1. Nov 2025 PP votes against the 2040 goal
    2. This month PP pledges slower rules
    3. Now manifesto published
    4. 29 Nov national election

    Why it matters

    Spain is the EU's fourth-largest economy and one of its strongest voices for climate rules. [26]

    What comes next

    Spain votes in its national election on 29 November. [26]

11. 14

    COP31 to launch a help-for-workers hub

    What happened

    • COP31 is expected to launch a 'just transition mechanism', agreed in outline at COP30 in Belem last year. [42]
    • A just transition means helping workers and communities as economies move off fossil fuels. [42]
    • Supporters want the Belem-Antalya mechanism to be a central hub for that help, worldwide. [42]
    • Rich and poor countries still disagree about what it should do and how it is paid for. [42]

    Who is involved

    • Developed countries a narrower role
    • Developing countries a wider role

    How it unfolded

    The idea began in the 1980s, with US unions and environmental justice groups. [42] The Paris Agreement named it in 2015. [42]

    1. Last year COP30 in Belem agrees the idea
    2. This year COP31 expected to launch it
    3. 1980s unions and green groups
    4. 2015 named in the Paris Agreement

    Why it matters

    It is aimed mostly at people tied to fossil fuels, but also at farming and heavy industry. [42]

    The truth

    • The disagreement over money carried on at UN talks in Bonn in June. [42]
12. 15

    Britain's grid calls for more power as wind drops

    What happened

    • Britain's grid operator, Neso, issued a rare call for more electricity on Monday as wind dropped across Europe. [27]
    • It warned of a shortfall of almost 1,400 megawatts between 6am and 11am. [27]
    • That shrank to 500, then 200 megawatts, before the notice was cancelled just after 9am. [27]
    • German power for Monday sold at 345.64 euros a megawatt-hour, and some evening slots topped 600. [28]
    • French power sold at 334.12 euros, the highest since December 2022. [28]

    Who is involved

    • Neso Britain's grid operator, which balances supply and demand

    How it unfolded

    On Friday, Neso paid more than 10 times earlier prices for imports, a cost that lands on home bills. [27]

    1. Dec 2022 last time this high
    2. Monday 334.12 euros
    3. Monday wind slumps
    4. Wednesday low wind and sun forecast to last

    Why it matters

    When wind falls, gas plants fill the gap. [28] Gas plants often set the price of power. [28]

    How it works

    Economists call it marginal pricing: the dearest plant still needed sets the price for everyone. [28]

    On Monday the dearest plant needed was gas, so prices jumped as wind fell. [28]

    Seen it before

    If a cafe must buy its last box of milk from a dear shop, every coffee costs more.

    The truth

    • 'This is not a warning of power cuts,' a Neso spokesperson said. [27]
    • Who gains Gas plants and power importers serving Britain — Neso paid up to 2,500 pounds a megawatt-hour for imports and 1,000 pounds to fire up gas plants, an energy consultant says. [27]
    • Who pays Households in Britain — The cost of Neso's dear emergency imports is covered through charges on home energy bills. [27]

    What comes next

    Still, sunless, windless weather is forecast for northwest Europe through Wednesday. [28]

13. 16

    Vineyard Wind is fully running

    What happened

    • Vineyard Wind, a 62-turbine wind farm off Massachusetts, became fully operational on 29 October. [29]
    • Revolution Wind, a 65-turbine farm off Rhode Island, reached full power days later. [29]
    • Together they can power 750,000 homes in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. [29]
    • Supporters say they cut 1.6 million tonnes of carbon pollution a year, like 325,000 fewer cars. [29]

    How it unfolded

    Both faced stop-and-start orders from the US federal government, AP reports. [29]

    1. 29 Oct Vineyard Wind fully on
    2. Days later Revolution Wind fully on

    Why it matters

    New England has little open land for big solar or onshore wind, so offshore wind is key to its goals. [29]

    Good news

    • Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind are now fully running off New England, with enough power for 750,000 homes.
14. 17

    Iraq aims to double its oil

    What happened

    • Iraq's prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, wants oil output of 10 million barrels a day by 2032. [30]
    • The plan is 7 million a day by 2030, including about 1 million from the Kurdistan region. [30]
    • Before the Iran war, Iraq produced about 4.4 million barrels a day. [30]

    How it unfolded

    Its exports fell from 3.36 million barrels a day in February to 131,000 in April. [30] They were back near 3.4 million in October. [30]

    Why it matters

    Oil usually brings in about 90% of the Iraqi government's income. [30]

    How it works

    Economists call a country that lives on one export resource-dependent.

    When exports collapsed in April, the monthly oil income of about $7 billion fell sharply. [30]

    Seen it before

    A family with one earner feels every lost shift.

    The truth

    • Who pays Iraq's state budget — Oil is about 90% of government income, so the April collapse in exports cut monthly oil money sharply. [30]

    What comes next

    Iraq is asking Opec, the oil exporters' group, to raise its quota of 4.431 million barrels a day. [30]

15. 18

    QatarEnergy buys into Namibian oil

    What happened

    • QatarEnergy, Qatar's state energy company, agreed to buy 25% of an oil block off Namibia from Chevron. [31]
    • After the deal, Chevron keeps 55%, and Namcor and Custos Energy hold 10% each. [31]
    • The block covers about 11,450 square kilometres, in water 350 to 2,300 metres deep. [31]
    • Namibia's offshore Orange Basin may hold about 11 billion barrels of light oil. [31]

    Who is involved

    • Chevron US oil major, keeps 55%
    • Namcor Namibia's state oil company, 10%

    Why it matters

    If the finds pay off, they could more than double Namibia's economy by 2040, a US agency says. [31]

    The truth

    • The deal still needs regulators' approval. [31] The finds are not yet proven commercially viable. [31]
    • Who gains Namibia's government and Namcor — If the Orange Basin finds pay off, its economy could more than double by 2040, a US agency says. [31]
    • Nobody knows yet

      Whether Namibia's offshore oil is worth pumping.

      The Orange Basin finds are estimates, and none is yet proven commercially viable. [31]

16. 19

    Japan's Inpex stays in the Gulf

    What happened

    • Inpex, Japan's biggest oil and gas producer, says it will stay in the Middle East despite Hormuz. [32]
    • Japan got about 94% of its crude oil imports from the Middle East in 2025. [32]
    • Its crude imports fell to about 850,000 barrels a day in April, the lowest since 1979. [32]
    • Inpex holds stakes in 2 big Abu Dhabi offshore fields, Upper and Lower Zakum, until 2058. [32]
    • 'Middle East is still a core area,' said Masato Kamiya, who runs Inpex in Abu Dhabi. [32]

    Who is involved

    • Inpex Japan's biggest oil and gas producer

    How it unfolded

    1. Now stakes in Upper and Lower Zakum
    2. 2058 the deals run out

    Why it matters

    Japan has almost no crude oil of its own, so its firms hold rights to fields abroad. [32]

    How it works

    Energy planners call oil from a foreign field that a company part-owns equity oil.

    Kamiya says it matters that Japanese firms hold direct rights to produce oil abroad. [32]

    Seen it before

    Growing some of your own vegetables means less depends on the shop.

    The truth

    • Its offshore work in Abu Dhabi has been hit, but Kamiya would not say by how much. [32]
    • Nobody knows yet

      How far Inpex's offshore output in Abu Dhabi has fallen.

      Its Abu Dhabi chief said offshore work had been hit but would not give a figure. [32]

17. 20

    A new oil spill closes a UAE beach

    What happened

    • Sharjah shut Al Luluyah Beach in Khor Fakkan, on the UAE's Gulf of Oman coast, over an oil spill. [33]
    • Most beaches in Sharjah, Umm Al Quwain and Ras Al Khaimah are still closed from that spill. [33]

    How it unfolded

    Last month, beaches on the UAE's Arabian Gulf coast closed after the Gem No 2 supertanker leaked crude. [33]

    That tanker was damaged in a suspected Iranian attack off Umm Al Quwain. [33]

    1. October Gem No 2 spill closes Gulf beaches
    2. Monday Khor Fakkan beach closes

    Why it matters

    Khor Fakkan has become a key container port while the war blocked most of Jebel Ali. [33]

    The truth

    • Authorities did not say what caused the new spill. [33]
    • Nobody knows yet

      What caused the new spill at Khor Fakkan.

      The UAE authorities closed the beach without naming a cause. [33]

18. 21

    Storm Charles heads for Portugal and Spain

    What happened

    • Storm Charles is heading for Portugal and Spain, with gusts of 100 to 120 km/h expected on the mainland. [34]
    • Portugal's weather service, IPMA, will issue orange warnings, the second most serious level. [34]
    • Madeira may get over 100mm of rain in 12 hours from late Tuesday. [34]
    • Waves of 4 to 6 metres are forecast along the coast south of Cabo Carvoeiro. [34]

    How it unfolded

    1. Wednesday worst day
    2. Thursday unsettled, less intense

    Why it matters

    Madeira, still recovering from Storm Bruna's damage at the weekend, is hit first, from late Tuesday. [34]

    How it works

    Forecasters call comparing several computer models an ensemble: where they agree, the forecast is surer.

    Both models put Charles between the Canaries and Madeira first. [34] After that, its path is still uncertain. [34]

    Seen it before

    If two friends guess a bus time and agree, you trust it more than if they differ by an hour.

    The weather models agree on the storm's first track and split on the next one, so warnings stay open to an upgrade.

    The idea, in story 03: Why a 0.4% dip in carbon is too small to call →

    The truth

    • IPMA has not ruled out raising its warnings after the next forecast runs. [34]

    What comes next

    Spain's weather agency, Aemet, expects Wednesday to be the worst day. [34]

19. 22

    A Texas coal mine becomes a solar farm

    What happened

    • Panamint Capital closed the first $769 million of a $1.8 billion green loan for a Texas solar project. [35]
    • Big Rooter, 1.2 gigawatts of solar, is being built on reclaimed coal-mine land at Twin Oaks. [35]
    • Twin Oaks still runs a 349-megawatt coal-fired power station. [35]
    • First Solar will supply about 2 million panels made in Ohio, Louisiana and Alabama. [35]

    How it unfolded

    1. December phase 2 building starts
    2. Aug 2029 phase 2 running

    Why it matters

    It will be the largest solar project built at a coal mining site, the company says. [35]

    How it works

    Planners call building on old industrial land a brownfield project. [35]

    Here the coal plant's grid connection is already working, so the solar can use it. [35]

    Seen it before

    Moving into a house that already has the electricity wired in saves months.

    What comes next

    The 658-megawatt second phase starts building in December and should run by August 2029. [35]

20. 23

    China switches on solar heat in Tibet

    What happened

    • CGN, a Chinese state nuclear company, connected a 25-megawatt solar-heat unit in Tibet to the grid on 6 November. [36]
    • It sits at about 4,300 metres up, the world's highest such plant, CGN says. [36]
    • Unlike most such plants, it uses spare solar-panel electricity to heat molten salt. [36]
    • The project cost about 2.4 billion yuan, or $330 million. [36]

    Who is involved

    • CGN China General Nuclear Power, a state company

    How it unfolded

    1. 6 Nov first unit on the grid
    2. End of 2026 second unit due

    Why it matters

    Ali, a remote border region, has long relied on diesel backup and power sent from far away. [36]

    How it works

    Engineers call storing energy as heat thermal storage. [36]

    The salt stores 14 hours of heat to drive steam turbines at night or at peak times. [36]

    Seen it before

    A flask keeps tea hot long after the kettle is off.

    The truth

    • The trade site pv magazine says 2 of CGN's claims have not been independently checked. [36]

    What comes next

    The second 25-megawatt unit is due by the end of 2026. [36]

21. 24

    Dutch homes rush to buy batteries

    What happened

    • Home battery sales in the Netherlands more than doubled in 9 months, says Sunergy Research, a Dutch energy firm. [37]
    • Net metering for home solar ends there on 1 January. [37]
    • The average Dutch home uses only 30% of its own solar power and sends 70% to the grid. [37]
    • A home battery can raise the share used at home to about 70%, Sunergy says. [37]
    • Sales of small batteries up to 5 kWh were over 4 times higher in September than January. [37]

    How it unfolded

    1. Now net metering
    2. 1 January net metering ends

    Why it matters

    Pay for power sent to the grid is set to fall sharply, so keeping it is worth more. [37]

    How it works

    Power regulators call it net metering: the meter counts power sent out against power used.

    When that ends in January, exported power earns far less, so homes want to keep it. [37]

    Seen it before

    If a shop pays little for your old games, you keep them and play them instead.

    The truth

    • Who gains Home battery sellers in the Netherlands — Homes are buying batteries to keep solar power that will earn far less once net metering ends in January. [37]
22. 25

    Bayer makes aspirin steam with clean power

    What happened

    • Bayer has begun testing steam made with clean electricity at its aspirin-ingredient plant in Asturias, Spain. [38]
    • Iberdrola built it from a 15-megawatt clean-power contract, 2.5 megawatts of solar and salt heat storage. [38]
    • It aims to meet all the steam needed to make acetylsalicylic acid, aspirin's active ingredient. [38]
    • The project cost over 18 million euros, with EU and Spanish public support. [38]

    Who is involved

    • Bayer German drug company; makes aspirin's active ingredient in Spain

    How it unfolded

    1. Now testing
    2. Year-end continuous running

    Why it matters

    The system is built to replace fossil fuels in making the plant's steam. [38]

    What comes next

    Testing should end by year-end, when the system is due to run continuously. [38]

23. 26

    Ford's car batteries hold up after 100,000 miles

    What happened

    • Ford says its electric cars' batteries keep over 90% of their health on average after 100,000 miles. [39]
    • The Mustang Mach-E data come from over 36,000 cars that drove 2 billion miles. [39]
    • 95% of the cars sit between 87% and 97% battery health. [39]
    • Over 30 early cars have passed 200,000 miles, and average 88% health. [39]

    How it unfolded

    More than 2,000 early owners passed 100,000 miles on their first battery, averaging better than 91%. [39]

    Why it matters

    The figures suggest batteries may last longer than many drivers expect, Electrek says. [39]

    How it works

    Battery engineers call a pack's charge, compared with when it was new, its state of health.

    A Mach-E battery at 92% health holds 92% of the charge it did new. [39]

    Seen it before

    An old phone that once lasted all day now dies a little before bedtime.

    Ford gives the spread as well as the average: 95% of cars sit between 87% and 97%, so one car can sit 10 points from another.

    The idea, in story 03: Why a 0.4% dip in carbon is too small to call →

    The truth

    • The numbers are Ford's own data, not an independent test. [39]
24. 27

    German electric lorries drive 1,000 km a day

    What happened

    • DEFRU Logistik, a German haulier, switched 30 of its big trucks to electric Mercedes eActros 600s. [40]
    • Each covers about 1,000 km of German motorway every day. [40]
    • Each has a 621 kWh battery that goes about 500 km on a charge. [40]
    • They charge on the way, or while being loaded and unloaded. [40]

    Who is involved

    • DEFRU Logistik a German haulier with 30 electric trucks

    Why it matters

    The fleet saved money even before the Iran war sent diesel prices up, Electrek says. [40]

    How it works

    Fleet managers compare lorries by the energy they use for each mile.

    The eActros 600 uses about 1.61 kWh a mile while hauling about 36 tonnes, Electrek reports. [40]

    Seen it before

    A family car is judged by how far it goes on one tank.

    The truth

    • The figures come from a Mercedes truck retail manager's LinkedIn post, reported by Electrek. [40]
25. 28

    Birds return to a park after an oil spill

    What happened

    • About 10 to 12 birds have returned to Broughshane Waterfowl Park in Northern Ireland after an oil spill. [41]
    • 13 of the park's birds died. [41] More than 20 went to the USPCA, an animal charity, for care. [41]

    How it unfolded

    A vandalised home heating oil tank leaked about 200 litres into its pond in October. [41]

    Why it matters

    All the birds had to be bathed and treated, and some had swallowed too much oil to survive. [41]

    Good news

    • The park, home to 120 birds, has reopened. [41]