Trade
International trade, tariffs, supply chains, commodity markets, chokepoints, cartels, and the economics of global commerce.
9 pieces in this category
May 2026
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16 May 6 min
Why Transit Strikes Resolve Differently
The Long Island Rail Road shutdown leaves 300,000 commuters stranded. Learn why transit strikes create leverage asymmetry, how public pressure changes negotiation, and why resolution paths differ from private-sector disputes.
How labor disputes work in essential infrastructure — leverage asymmetry, public pressure dynamics, and why transit strikes resolve differently -
13 May 7 min
The periodic table has a choke point
Rare earth elements power your phone and car, but 90% of global supply flows through Chinese refineries. How resource geography creates geopolitical leverage—and what alternatives actually require.
Supply chain concentration and resource geography
April 2026
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28 Apr 6 min
Why the UAE Left OPEC
The UAE walked away from OPEC voluntarily. That choice reveals the fundamental mechanics of cartels: why producers form pacts, what makes them fragile, and why coordination fails even when cooperation benefits everyone.
How cartels work and why they fall apart -
26 Apr 7 minutes
How Cartel Gold Becomes American
The U.S. Mint bought gold mined by drug cartels and stamped it 'American.' The story reveals how supply chains inherit the identity of their inputs — and why knowing where things come from is harder than anyone admits.
Supply chain integrity and the systems that determine what counts as 'clean' -
24 Apr 7 minutes
When Someone Knows the Future
A soldier allegedly bet on a Venezuelan leader's overthrow using classified intelligence. The case reveals how markets process information—and why they collapse when one person knows what's coming.
Information asymmetry, prediction markets, and the hidden cost of classified intelligence -
21 Apr 7 min
Who Really Pays Tariffs? The $166 Billion Answer
The US government just announced $166 billion in tariff refunds. If foreign countries pay tariffs, why are American companies getting the money back? This refund reveals the mechanics most people miss.
How tariffs actually work, who pays them, and why refunds reveal their hidden mechanics -
20 Apr 8 min
The 21-Mile Bottleneck
When ships carrying one-fifth of the world's oil can't move through a strait narrower than a marathon route, the lesson isn't about the conflict—it's about how concentration creates control in every system we build.
Chokepoints and Global Systems -
19 Apr 7 min
Why Jet Fuel Price Spikes Break Some Airlines and Not Others
A sudden fuel price spike forces airlines to cut routes and raise fares. Why does the same shock kill budget carriers while legacy airlines survive? The answer reveals how systems break at their bottlenecks—and why efficiency creates brittleness.
How commodity shocks cascade through interconnected systems -
18 Apr 7 minutes
The 21-Mile Channel That Moves Oil Markets
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is open during a ceasefire, and oil prices plunge. Why does a channel you could swim across control a fifth of the world's oil? This is a lesson about chokepoints—geographic bottlenecks where entire systems concentrate their flows, creating points of maximum vulnerability.
Chokepoints and global systems