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The World, Explained

22 May 2026 9 min 102 sources

World News — The World, Explained (22 May 2026)

Ukraine seizes the initiative — and Russia threatens to hit back

Three things happened on the Ukraine battlefield this week that, taken together, mark a genuine shift in momentum.

Ukrainian drones struck two Russian oil refineries deep inside Russia. The Syzran refinery, owned by state oil company Rosneft and located more than 800km from Ukraine’s border, was set on fire overnight [1]. A separate strike hit a refinery in Yaroslavl the previous day [6]. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described both as part of a deliberate May campaign: “The key targets are Russian oil refineries, storage facilities and other infrastructure tied to these oil revenues” [1].

Ukraine is also winning on the ground. The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based research organisation that tracks the conflict daily, said Ukraine had made its most significant battlefield gains since 2024 [1]. Ukraine’s defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov credited Russia’s loss of access to Starlink satellite navigation — which had been used to guide drones — for giving Ukrainian forces “a critical battlefield advantage” [1]. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg assessment drawing on allied officials described Russian military momentum as “losing steam” [2].

But Russia is now threatening retaliation. Putin vowed to respond after accusing Ukraine of striking a student dormitory in Starobilsk, in occupied Luhansk, killing six people and injuring 39 [4]. Ukraine’s military confirmed the attack, but said the building housed the headquarters of Russia’s elite Rubicon drone unit, not civilian infrastructure [4]. The BBC was not able to independently verify what function the building served — the dispute matters because it shapes Russia’s stated justification for whatever retaliatory order comes next [4]. To underscore the threat, Russia held nuclear drills Thursday, launching a Yars ballistic missile, a Zircon hypersonic missile, and conducting submarine exercises across Arctic and Pacific waters [1].

One ripple from the front: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed this week that Ukraine be given “associate membership” of the EU — attending meetings without a vote — as a way to accelerate both its war effort and peace negotiations [1]. Zelenskyy welcomed the signal [1].

The angle to track: Ukraine’s drone campaign now reaches more than 1,500km into Russian territory. Each refinery hit cuts revenue Moscow needs to fund the war. Watch whether Russia’s vowed retaliation targets Ukrainian energy infrastructure in kind — the pattern matters more than any single strike.

The Iran ceasefire is holding, barely, and the pieces for a deal are moving

Background first: the United States launched a military operation against Iran on 28 February. A ceasefire took effect on 8 April, but no permanent peace deal has been signed, and fighting has paused rather than ended.

Pakistan’s army chief flew to Tehran on Friday, a sign that mediators believe a deal is within reach [21,26]. Pakistani interior minister Mohsen Naqvi had met Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi twice in two days before the visit [17]. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed “slight progress” in talks [69].

Two issues are blocking a permanent agreement. The first is Iran’s demand to control the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes. Iran has proposed a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority that would charge tolls and control shipping routes. Five Gulf states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have written to the International Maritime Organisation urging ships to ignore it [17]. Rubio called Iran’s proposal “a tolling system in an international waterway” that no country should accept [17]. The second sticking point is Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme: Washington wants Tehran to export its stockpile of highly enriched uranium; Iran wants to defer nuclear talks entirely and focus on a ceasefire [17]. One leaked report from Saudi channel Al Arabiya said a draft interim deal had already been drawn up — but that it excluded the nuclear issue entirely [69].

Markets are watching. The UAE’s top diplomat, Anwar Gargash, put the odds of a deal at “50-50” [36]. Stocks climbed and the dollar approached a six-week high on Friday as traders priced in ceasefire hopes [9]. Nomura, the Japanese bank, forecast no US interest rate cuts for the rest of 2026 — partly because oil-driven inflation from the Iran war is still feeding through global prices [44]. UK government borrowing in April hit its highest level since the Covid pandemic, at £24.3bn for the month, with analysts citing higher energy costs from the war as a key driver [43].

What we don’t know: whether the Pakistan-mediated draft will be accepted by either government, and whether a deal without a nuclear component will hold.

Taiwan’s $14 billion arms package goes on pause

The US has told Congress it is temporarily halting a $14bn weapons sale to Taiwan — the largest-ever proposed transfer to the island — to preserve munitions for its Iran operations [11,15,70]. Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said at a Senate hearing on Thursday: “Right now we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury” — the code name for US operations against Iran [15].

The timing is significant. Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, where Taiwan was a central topic. Xi warned that the US and China could “collide or even conflict” if Taiwan was not handled carefully [11]. Trump has since described the arms sale as “a very good negotiating chip” with China, and confirmed he discussed it with Xi “in great detail” — breaking with decades of US policy not to consult Beijing on the matter [11,70].

Why the pause bites harder than it looks. A report based on Pentagon assessments revealed the US fired over 300 THAAD anti-missile interceptors — a high-altitude missile defence system that works by ramming into incoming ballistic missiles — in defence of Israel during the Iran war, roughly half of America’s entire stock [59,63]. Israel sent its own THAAD batteries for maintenance before the war began, meaning the US bore most of the interception burden. Replenishing those stocks now competes directly with Taiwan’s package.

Taiwan’s government said it had not been officially informed of any change [84]. But the crisis of confidence is real. One Northeast Asia analyst from the Crisis Group said the pause would “exacerbate anxiety and scepticism about US support in Taiwan and make it difficult for the Taiwanese government to request additional defence budget” [15].

If you follow Taiwan-China relations, this is the number to watch: the $14bn package includes PAC-3 surface-to-air missiles. Every month of delay is a month Taiwan’s air defence modernisation stalls.

Turkey’s courts remove the main opposition leader

A Turkish court annulled the 2023 leadership election of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s main opposition party, on Thursday — effectively removing its elected leader, Özgür Özel, and reinstating a predecessor [54,73,48].

The CHP is the oldest political party in Turkey and the chief challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has governed the country for more than two decades. The CHP won a major upset in 2024 local elections, and its candidate for the 2028 presidential race — Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu — has been in prison for over a year on corruption charges the party denies [73].

The court ruled that vote-buying had occurred during the internal election that brought Özel to power. Özel called it “a coup carried out through the judiciary” [54]. Turkey’s Istanbul stock exchange fell 6% on the news, triggering an automatic trading halt, before recovering somewhat on Friday [73]. The central bank sold foreign currency reserves to contain the damage [54].

The ousted mayor Imamoğlu posted from jail urging Turks to “stand together” [73]. Özel said he would fight the ruling but ruled out forming a breakaway party: “Tenants leave, homeowners are to stay” [73].

The question to follow: Erdoğan can only run for president again if he calls early elections or changes the constitution. With the main opposition now in legal turmoil, the 2028 election landscape just shifted.

Ebola in Congo: the outbreak is accelerating

The WHO, the World Health Organisation, raised its risk assessment for the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo from “high” to “very high” on Friday [38,60]. The DRC is Africa’s second-largest country and has been at the centre of an ongoing armed conflict for years.

Suspected cases tripled in a week — from 246 to nearly 750 — with 177 suspected deaths [55]. Only 82 cases have been confirmed so far, because laboratory access in conflict zones is limited [38,60]. The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, a rare variant for which there is no approved vaccine. Bundibugyo kills roughly one in three infected people [45,60].

The response is in difficulty. On Thursday, relatives of a man who died at Rwampara General Hospital set the facility’s newly established Ebola treatment tents on fire, angry at being denied access to his body [55]. Ebola bodies must be buried under strict infection-control protocols to prevent further spread. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that “significant distrust of outside authorities” was hampering the response [55]. The UN released $60 million in emergency funding, but humanitarian organisations said it was not enough [38].

One development to watch: Oxford University scientists said Friday they were already conducting animal trials on a new Bundibugyo vaccine using the same ChAdOx1 technology that produced the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine. The WHO said it could be ready for human clinical trials in two to three months [45]. The Serum Institute of India is lined up to manufacture at scale if it proves effective [45].

Because of the outbreak, India postponed a major India-Africa summit that had been scheduled for Delhi at the end of May [56].

The story nobody’s covering

Indonesia is quietly taking state control of its most strategically valuable commodity exports — and the scale is significant. Indonesia, the world’s most populous island nation, has moved to channel coal and nickel exports through government-controlled structures, limiting the ability of foreign and private companies to trade freely [29]. Indonesia holds the world’s largest known nickel reserves — a metal essential for electric vehicle batteries — and is one of the biggest coal exporters. State control over both commodities, implemented under President Prabowo Subianto, puts Indonesia in a position to dictate pricing and supply to manufacturers in China, Europe, and the United States at a moment when EV supply chains are under intense geopolitical scrutiny. This would ordinarily be a major story for anyone tracking critical minerals, battery supply chains, or the global energy transition — but it has received almost no attention outside specialist trade coverage.

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