Climate, in brief

ENTSOG, the group of companies that run Europe's gas pipelines, said on Thursday that a severe cold snap could leave the EU short of 12% to 15% of the gas it needs. [1]

Europe's gas stores were 72% full on 1 October, against 83% a year earlier, after what the report calls a challenging summer for filling them. [1]

The report assumes no Russian pipeline gas at all, and its worst case adds a breakdown at the biggest offshore gas link into the continent and a full stop to pipeline gas from Algeria. [1]

Even in a normal winter, the stores could fall to 13% by March 2027 if shipped gas stays scarce, which could force factories that use a lot of energy to cut production. [1]

Much of the gas that replaced Russia's now arrives by ship as LNG, gas cooled into a liquid, and the US has become the EU's biggest supplier. [1]

About a fifth of the world's LNG passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war, and shipments from Qatar and the UAE have been badly squeezed since 28 February. [1]

QatarEnergy, Qatar's state gas company, has extended its notice that it cannot deliver to early December, so 35 cargoes meant for Italy between April and early December, about 4.6 billion cubic metres of gas, are lost. [3]

Europe is bidding against Asia for the same ships. [1] Asian buyers paid an average of $17.50 per million British thermal units, the unit gas is traded in, in the second quarter, 45% more than a year earlier. [4]

Countries far from the sea in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe are the most exposed, because the pipes from the west can only carry so much. [1] South-eastern Europe could be 12% short on the coldest days. [1]

The European Commission has let countries aim for stores 75% to 80% full by 1 November instead of the usual 90%, to stop a rush of buying that would push prices higher. [1]

The Dutch gas price that Europe trades on rose almost 3% on Thursday to 80.39 euros a megawatt-hour, its first time above 80 euros since 21 September, after a tanker was hit near Qatar. [2]

Dear shipped gas is pushing power companies in Europe, Japan, South Korea and China to burn more coal, and the IEA, the West's energy watchdog, expects world coal use to reach a record 8.94 billion tonnes this year. [4]

Why it matters. Watch whether Qatar's gas ships reach Europe after early December, and how cold January turns out; a cold snap while shipped gas is still short is the case in which the 12-15% gap appears. [1][3]

Isaias became the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 early on Thursday, the latest first hurricane since satellites began tracking storms, 27 days later than the old record. [7] A strong El Nino over the Pacific had blocked Atlantic storms with high, shearing winds all season. [8] Isaias had 85mph winds on Thursday and was forecast to come close to Category 3 before landfall late Friday or early Saturday. [6] Workers left 121 oil platforms, and about 63% of Gulf of Mexico oil output, 1.3 million barrels a day, was shut. [6]

Why it matters. Millions of people from Louisiana to Florida were under hurricane warnings, with evacuations and school closures in parts of Florida. [10] Up to 10 inches of rain could fall in places, with flash flooding in towns. [9]

The 100 million barrels that the G7, a group of seven rich democracies, promised last Friday are mostly the unfinished part of a 400-million-barrel release agreed in March, an internal document seen by Euronews shows. [11] Of the March pledge, 326 million barrels have been released. [11] On 7 October the IEA and the EU agreed to speed up the rest and to put diesel first. [11] European diesel prices then jumped 8%, the Financial Times reported. [12] France said it will release 10 million barrels of diesel from its reserves, Reuters reported. [12]

Why it matters. Drivers, lorry firms and farmers in Europe face diesel that stays dear, because no oil beyond the March pledge is coming. [11][12] Portugal says it will make no new pledge until every member delivers its old one. [11]

The WWF's Living Planet Report 2026 tracks nearly 36,000 populations of almost 6,000 kinds of animals with backbones. [14] It finds them down by an average of 73% since 1970. [14] The figure averages each population's change; it does not count animals lost, and about half the populations are stable or growing. [14] Bluefin tuna are back in big numbers off Britain after catch limits, and wild tigers rose from about 3,200 in 2010 to about 5,700 in 2025. [14] Last year the green sea turtle became the first sea turtle moved from endangered to least concern. [14]

Why it matters. The report names farming and burning fossil fuels as the biggest pressures. [14] It estimates $7.3 trillion went into activities that harm nature in 2023, against $220 billion spent protecting or restoring it. [14]

September averaged 69.4F across the lower 48 US states, 4.6F above the 20th-century average and the warmest since records began in 1895, said NOAA, the US weather agency. [16] It beat the 1998 record of 68.95F. [16] Nights were especially warm: more than 30% of the area, home to about 80 million people, had its warmest September nights on record. [16] January to September was also the hottest first nine months of any year. [17]

Why it matters. Drought now covers 89% of the US South, the widest since October 2000. [16] Whether 2026 beats 2024 as the hottest US year depends on October to December. [17]

India's June-to-September monsoon brought 12.6% less rain than normal, the driest in 11 years, which a former top official at its earth sciences ministry blames mainly on El Nino. [18] Its 178 big reservoirs hold 132.7 billion cubic metres, below the 10-year average of 151.1. [18] Hydropower fell almost 16% in September, and power shortages reached 560 million kilowatt-hours, the biggest monthly gap in more than three years. [18] About 40% of coal power plants had critically low coal stocks. [18]

Why it matters. Small factories report power cuts, and food is dearer: onions cost 93% more in September than a year earlier. [18] Tractor sales fell 12.6% from August as farmers held back. [19]

Dear shipped gas since the Iran war is pushing South-East Asian countries towards solar and wind, the think tank Ember says. [4] But the region has only about 7 gigawatts of grid batteries due by 2030, less than a third of the 23 to 26 gigawatts its plans need. [4] Vingroup, a big Vietnamese company, wants to replace a planned 4.8-gigawatt gas plant with solar, wind and batteries. [4] Large solar farms win loans more easily than batteries, small projects and power lines. [4]

Why it matters. Ember says the region needs $281 billion a year by 2035 and is far short of it. [4] Its analyst says batteries and grids must be allowed to earn returns that match what they do for the power system. [4]

A four-hour battery now makes peak-time power more cheaply than a new gas 'peaker', a plant built to run only in the busiest hours, in markets around the world, Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday. [27] In the US, for a plant starting in 2026, the battery is 65% to 75% cheaper. [27] Gas turbine prices are expected to reach $600 a kilowatt by the end of 2027, up 195% since 2019, and the three big makers each have 35 to 116 gigawatts of orders waiting. [27]

Why it matters. Demand from data centres keeps turbines scarce and dear, which hands more peak-hour work to batteries. [27] The firm also found solar is the cheapest new power in 43 of the 48 markets it studied. [27]

South Africa plans to buy 4.6 gigawatts of grid batteries and 5 gigawatts of gas power plants, the first orders under its new long-term power plan. [28] The plan adds more than 105 gigawatts of new capacity by 2039 as the country slowly cuts its reliance on coal. [28] The batteries will soak up spare power that is now wasted, and the gas plants will run when wind and sun drop. [28] This first round includes no new solar or wind farms. [28]

Why it matters. Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said the plan aims to give factories dependable power and protect jobs. [28] The country's three earlier battery rounds bought 513, 615 and 616 megawatts, far less than this order. [28]

Cherokee County in Iowa, a US farming state, banned new battery projects indefinitely on 24 March, after the Smith family proposed one on their farm. [29] The brothers want 30 megawatts of solar panels raised high enough for cattle to graze under, paired with a 25-megawatt battery. [29] Bans like it are spreading as US counties weigh the real and feared fire risks of lithium-ion batteries. [29] With help from the one supervisor who voted against it, the family got the ban lifted within five months. [29]

Why it matters. Batteries are now the largest source of on-demand power being built in the US, so local bans decide where much of it can go. [29] Many counties keep their bans in place. [29]

An expert group advising the European Commission recommended limiting parts and software from 'high-risk' suppliers in every kind of solar system, from plug-in panels to large solar farms. [30] The EU's solar capacity grew from 86 gigawatts in 2015 to 406 in 2025, much of it run by Chinese-made inverters, the boxes that turn panel power into grid power. [30] The group named no country or company. [30] Separately, Sungrow, a big Chinese inverter maker, says it fixed a flaw in its online control platform within days of German researchers reporting it in August. [31]

Why it matters. One of the three high risks the group lists is someone using a maker's online platform to control many inverters at once. [30] Sungrow says it found no sign that anyone but the researcher used the flaw. [31]

China alone can make more than 900 gigawatts of solar cells a year, while the world installs about 590 gigawatts, the analyst Edurne Zoco told pv magazine. [32] Average profit margins at leading panel makers fell from about 9% in 2023 to below zero in 2025. [32] She expects factories to close only slowly, so prices stay low. [32] Prices are starting to differ by region, as trade barriers and security rules grow. [32]

Why it matters. Makers are cutting older production lines, and many are moving into other parts and services, because today's prices do not cover most of their costs. [32] Buyers in protected markets will pay more for panels they can trace, she says. [32]

Hungary extended the deadline for its EU-funded home solar grants to 31 October, its second extension since the first deadline of 15 June. [33] The scheme paid the full cost for households with below-average incomes, and about 10,000 of 33,700 applications were still open in June. [33] An industry group blames contractor bankruptcies and a two-month stall when the scheme changed hands. [33] Home installations under 50 kilowatts fell from 362 megawatts in 2024 to 207 in 2025. [33]

Why it matters. Some households face unfinished systems and demands to repay advances their contractors took. [33] The EU's own deadline passed on 31 August, so it is unclear who pays for work finished later. [33]

Shell expects its refineries to earn about $42 for every barrel of fuel made from July to September, up from $24 in the spring. [5] The old record was about $28, set early in the Russia-Ukraine war. [5] War damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia has made diesel and other fuels far dearer than the crude oil they are made from. [5] TotalEnergies' boss said European refineries once seen as burdens are now 'goldmines'. [5]

Why it matters. Drivers, lorry firms and airlines pay that gap at the pump. [5][13] The extra price of diesel over crude rose above $100 a barrel for the first time. [5]

Ryanair's boss Michael O'Leary said Europe should not run short of jet fuel this winter or next summer. [13] Jet fuel used to cost 10-15% more than Brent, the benchmark price of crude oil; it now costs about 50% more, he said. [13] In Europe it averaged $195.95 a barrel in the week to 2 October, more than double a year earlier, the airline body IATA says. [13] About 900,000 tonnes are due from Asia over the coming months, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks tankers. [13]

Why it matters. Ryanair has already cut winter flights and lowered its yearly passenger target to 214 million from 216 million. [13] O'Leary expects the higher price to last another 12 to 18 months. [13]

E.ON Next completed its purchase of Ovo Energy on Thursday after Britain's competition watchdog cleared it. [34] Octopus, E.ON and British Gas now serve almost three in four households in Great Britain. [34] In 2016, six big firms held about 85%; many newcomers followed, and about 30 suppliers then collapsed when wholesale prices soared in 2021-22. [34] Ovo had failed the regulator's tougher money rules and struggled to raise 300 million pounds. [35]

Why it matters. Ovo's 4 million households see no immediate change. [34] Tom Goswell of Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy, says bigger suppliers bring stability but less pressure to keep prices low. [34]

South Korea plans at least 100 gigawatts of renewable power by 2030, with about $750 billion of mostly government-led investment over ten years, the Korea Times reported, according to Carbon Brief. [12] The plan, called K-GX, also backs green steel, batteries, hydrogen and small nuclear reactors. [12] President Lee Jae Myung said the country must stop chasing others and lead the green market. [12]

Why it matters. South Korea is one of the buyers burning more coal because shipped gas has become so dear. [4] The plan was unveiled on Wednesday. [12]

Oracle, a US software company that rents out computing for AI, is trucking compressed gas to data centres that are not yet linked to a pipeline. [38] Road deliveries kept a site near Salt Lake City going for more than a year, and are powering early work at an OpenAI campus in Shackelford County, Texas. [38] Delivered this way, the gas costs about four times the price at a major trading hub, East Daley Analytics told Bloomberg. [38]

Why it matters. Grid connections are scarce on both sides of the Atlantic: Denmark's grid operator stopped new connection deals facing a 60-gigawatt queue against a 7-gigawatt peak. [38] A draft Spanish rule would make new data centres run on 80% renewable power every hour. [38]

The US Department of Energy urged PJM, the grid operator for 13 eastern states and Washington DC, to stop the costs of serving data centres shifting onto its other customers. [37] It appears to be the department's first such filing at FERC, the US power regulator, in at least five years. [37] PJM failed to buy enough supply in its last two auctions and now seeks 6.8 gigawatts for 2028-29. [37] It plans to file its fix by 29 October. [37]

Why it matters. The department wants the cost of plants built for data centres charged to the data centres, not to existing customers. [37] PJM members meet on 22 October to discuss it. [37]

Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey ordered that fees power suppliers pay when they miss clean-energy targets be used to help low- and middle-income homes heat this winter. [36] Heating oil in the state averaged $6.12 a gallon last week, up almost 75% in a year. [36] The order also halves one clean-energy charge on bills, worth $20 million, and creates a one-time payment for middle-income homes heated by oil. [36]

Why it matters. A consumer group backs the help but says the money should come from the state budget, not from funds meant for clean energy projects. [36] Those fees have paid for batteries and microgrids in poorer neighbourhoods. [36]

Ukraine's military said on Thursday it hit Russia's largest oil refinery, in Omsk in Siberia, about 2,500km from Ukraine. [39] It is run by Gazprom Neft, an oil company owned by Russia's state gas giant, and it had to halt after an attack in July. [39] The governor of the Omsk region said a drone hit an industrial area. [39] Russia's refineries processed less oil in June than at any point in more than 20 years, and its diesel output is down almost 30%, the IEA says. [40]

Why it matters. Less Russian diesel tightens the same world market that Europe is short of. [11][40] Ukraine gave no detail of the damage. [39]

South Korea's government said it will take legal action if fuel shipments from its ports to Russia broke the law, after a Guardian investigation. [40] The Guardian found that more than 176,000 tonnes of fuel, mostly diesel, was loaded onto seven tankers for 14 trips to Russia's far east in July and August. [40] Three of the tankers are under UK and EU sanctions. [40] Seoul says refined fuel is not covered by its export controls on Russia. [40]

Why it matters. A Finnish think tank analyst says the trade undermines sanctions and South Korea's support for Ukraine. [40] It eases the diesel shortage that Ukraine's drone strikes caused in Russia. [40]

Sri Lanka is in a severe drought that has left reservoirs dry and farmers facing large losses and debts, the Associated Press reports. [20] The south-west monsoon, which brings most of the rain, has been weak this year. [20] Experts link it partly to a strong El Nino and to climate change. [20] Recent showers have not been enough to refill the reservoirs. [20]

Why it matters. Wild animals in the reserves are suffering from heat and thirst as water holes shrink. [20] The same weak monsoon has cut India's water and power. [18]

Scientists warn that the record El Nino could push large parts of the Great Barrier Reef, off Australia, from coral towards seaweed. [21] Corals bleach and can starve when water stays hotter than they can stand. [21] David Schoeman of the University of the Sunshine Coast says the reef has had six mass-bleaching events in a decade. [21] Warmer oceans now cause bleaching even in years that are usually cool, he says. [21]

Why it matters. The worst bleaching on the reef has come in El Nino years, such as the mass die-off in 2024. [21] This El Nino is still peaking in the Pacific. [21]

Police in central Chile used helicopters to lift residents to safety after the Mapocho river burst its banks in Talagante, 35km from Santiago, the capital. [22] Santiago had 74mm of rain in the first seven days of October, already its rainiest October in 76 years. [22] One person was found dead in a flooded underpass in San Bernardo. [22] Unlike in July's storms, the riverside area had not been evacuated beforehand. [22]

Why it matters. Forecasters expect this year's strong El Nino to bring more wet, stormy weather to central Chile through the southern spring. [22] The same El Nino is drying India and Sri Lanka. [18][20]