Climate, in brief

Rich countries gave poorer ones at most $32bn in 2024 to cope with climate harm, the UN Environment Programme says. [1]

The 155 developing countries will need $305bn a year by 2035 to adapt. [1]

The money has been flat or falling since 2022, despite growing harm from extreme weather. [1]

Adaptation means getting ready for the harm: flood barriers, early warnings, stronger infrastructure, and irrigation that survives drought. [1]

Campaigners want grants or cheap loans, because high-interest loans are hard to repay on sea walls and heat shelters. [1]

The UN report says the cost of debt and investors' returns can more than double what an adaptation project costs. [1]

The poorest countries and small island states are hit hardest, and can least afford sea barriers and firefighting equipment. [1]

The starting year of such a promise is called its baseline, and the Belem promise to triple has none. [3]

It also never said who pays or which money counts. [3] So countries can still argue over whether the money was tripled at all. [3]

Promising to double your pocket money means little until someone says how much you get now.

Some harm is never counted, because poorer countries are less likely to track heat deaths or damage to nature. [1]

The 2025 goal cannot be checked yet, because the latest figures stop at 2024. [1]

Successful adaptation often leaves no claim or bill showing what it saved, a Nature Communications comment says. [4]

Countries meet at the UN's COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, from 9 to 20 November. [1] They will keep arguing over the promise's details. [3]

Rich countries promised poorer ones help against climate harm, gave at most $32bn in 2024, and many are now moving budgets to defence. [1]

Four days before COP31, nobody has agreed what the promise to triple that money starts from, or who pays. [3]

A promise to "triple" sounds exact, and it hides that no starting figure was agreed. [3]

When a sea wall is paid for with debt, part of the budget goes to interest and investors' returns rather than to the wall. [1]

They have the least money for sea barriers, so they wait, or borrow at rates they struggle to repay. [1]

How much money poorer countries will need each year by 2035.

Our $305bn comes from The Guardian's report of the UN study. [1] We could not read the UN report itself, so we have not checked that figure against it.

What the promise to triple will come to in dollars.

The Guardian gives $85bn to $120bn a year, and New Scientist says no starting year was agreed. [1] [3]

Democrats won both houses of the US Congress on Tuesday, which gives them control of must-pass funding bills. [18]

Chellie Pingree, the lead Democrat on funding for the US environment agency, has a long list of subpoenas ready. [18] Those are legal orders to testify. [18]

The Trump administration froze billions in climate money, including a $7 billion community solar programme. [18]

Its energy department also halted trial projects for hydrogen in Pennsylvania and low-carbon cement in California. [18]

Trump keeps his veto, which can block new laws unless two-thirds of the US Congress overrule it. [19]

Pingree said: "We can put a lot more teeth into the next appropriations bill." [18]

Funding bills could deny agencies running money unless they pay out the solar and energy funds the US Congress ordered. [18]

Lawmakers call this the power of the purse: the US Congress can attach conditions to any agency's money. [18]

So the US environment agency could be told to pay out frozen solar money, or lose its running costs. [18]

A parent can say no pocket money until the chores are done.

None of this restores any money yet, because Trump must still agree a budget with them to avoid a shutdown. [18]

Malabar, Florida, took 2 feet of rain in 36 hours on 1 and 2 November. [7]

It was a once-in-1,000-year event for the area, meaning a one-in-1,000 chance in any year. [7]

In Colorado, the San Juan River peaked at 16.81 feet in Pagosa Springs, above 15 feet a week earlier. [7]

The weekend storm killed at least 4 people across the US Southwest, Grist reports. [20]

Clovis, New Mexico, has had 28.84 inches of rain since 20 September, against a usual 3.3 inches. [20]

Sea water off Mexico's Baja California is 11 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average, which feeds the storms moisture. [7]

The flood risk in the US West will shift to California in the coming weeks, climate scientist Daniel Swain says. [7]

Even this rain cannot reverse the fall of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the Colorado River's two largest reservoirs. [20]

Hydrologists call this antecedent moisture: ground already soaked cannot take more, so new rain runs off. [20]

The late October storms soaked the Southwest, so this week's rain ran straight off into rivers already high. [20]

A dry sponge drinks a spill, while a soaked one lets it run across the table.

Swain blames a very strong El Nino with a boost from climate change. [7] He gives no split between the two. [7]

The typhoon season in South East and East Asia is forecast to carry nearly double its 30-year average energy. [5]

Storms this year have killed dozens, shut major airports and wiped out crops, the BBC reports. [5]

In October, sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific reached 4C above normal, the highest since records began in 1949. [5]

The old record was 3.6C, in December 1997. [5]

El Nino makes typhoons form further east, so they stay longer over warm water and grow stronger. [5]

Rafaela Jane Delfino, a climatologist in Manila, simulated past storms in warmer conditions and found 26% more total rain. [5]

Those storms included Super Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 6,000 people in 2013. [5]

Japan has told people to stockpile food, and China is upgrading its warning systems. [5]

The Philippines and its neighbours are preparing for lost rice harvests, and are giving farmers extra fertiliser. [5]

Meteorologists use Accumulated Cyclone Energy: a single figure for the total intensity of a season's storms. [5]

Typhoons staying longer over warm water build more of that energy, which is why this year's forecast is so high. [5]

A player's points over a whole season tell you more than one big game.

Filipinos have protested that corruption is eating money meant for flood-control projects. [5]

UNICEF, the UN's children's agency, says it is $5.54 million short for protecting Malawi's children from El Nino. [8]

It needs $7.61 million in all. [8]

2.6 million people in Malawi already face crisis levels of hunger, and cholera could return. [8]

Forecasters expect erratic rains, long dry spells and local floods there from October to March. [8]

Under a severe drought, up to 6 million more people could need help by the 2028 hungry season. [8]

Malawi's government plan aims to reach 958,172 people in 9 high-risk districts. [8]

Some supplies are already in warehouses in Lilongwe, Blantyre and Bangula. [8]

Children and women are hit hardest, through malnutrition, unsafe water and lost schooling, UNICEF says. [8]

Aid workers call this anticipatory action: spending before a disaster peaks, while roads still work. [8]

The crisis can be seen coming, so UNICEF can treat children before the roads are cut. [8] It says each $1 spent on reducing risk saves up to $15 in recovery. [8]

Buying an umbrella before the rain costs less than drying everything after.

The 6 million figure is for a severe drought, one scenario UNICEF set out, not a forecast. [8]

Why a solar farm can borrow and a sea wall cannot

A lender first asks where the repayment will come from

In project finance, the loan is repaid from what the project earns

A wind or solar farm sells power under contract, so its income can be counted years ahead

A sea wall sells nothing: it stops a loss, and no buyer pays it for that

With no income to lend against, the wall needs a grant, a cheap loan or a tax

So loans go first to what has something to sell, even where a wall is needed more

A sea wall can save a town far more than it costs and still be hard to borrow for, because the saving stays with the town and no money comes back to the lender.

Both can be worth building. A lender can only be repaid from the one that brings in money.

It began full service under contracts with utilities in Connecticut and Rhode Island, and a contract with a named buyer is the income a lender counts on.

Ta'ziz drew more offers than it needed for a terminal and an ammonia plant, both of which will have products to store and sell.

Treating hungry children and keeping water safe brings in no income to repay a loan, so UNICEF has to ask donors to give the money.

The grid pays for each release of power, so the company running the batteries earns steady income from equipment that protects homes.

This is not a fixed law: a fee on the homes behind a wall can repay a loan, but the poorest towns have the least to charge.

The lender who says no is doing the job properly, because no money would come back.

Without the missing money, screening and safe water may not reach them before the roads are cut. [8]

The Arctic polar vortex, a spinning mass of air far above the North Pole, is breaking down unusually early. [21]

Experts say it may be the earliest such break-down on record. [21]

The earliest one recorded until now was on 28 November 1968. [21]

The vortex normally peaks in December and January, and usually breaks down deep in winter. [21]

Its tight spin keeps cold air over the pole. [21] When disturbed, it can push cold air to North America and Europe. [21]

Judah Cohen, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says it could still prove minor or major. [21]

Forecasters expected a mild North American winter because of El Nino, and a split could bring cooler weeks instead. [21]

Meteorologists call a big disruption a sudden stratospheric warming: waves knock the vortex until it drifts or splits. [21]

Its wobble shifts the polar jet stream, the band of wind that steers our weather, and so moves the cold. [21]

A spinning top stays tight and upright, until a nudge makes it wobble and wander.

Where and when any cold from the polar vortex will arrive, or whether it will arrive at all.

Forecasters say the break-down looks likely, and where everything sets up is still in question. [21]

COP31's organisers want countries to raise electricity's share of energy use to 35% by 2035, from about 20%. [22]

Their lead negotiator is Chris Bowen, Australia's climate and energy minister. [22]

COP31 is the UN climate summit opening in Antalya, Turkey, on 9 November. [22]

So far the goal is voluntary. [22] Bowen wants it in a decision signed by every country. [22]

Dear oil and gas from wars push importing countries, home to three-quarters of people, to cut fuel use. [22]

Falling prices for solar panels and batteries have sped up the move to electric cars and heat pumps. [22]

Last year's summit in Brazil could not agree new commitments on moving away from fossil fuels. [3]

Countries that switch to electric cars and heat pumps buy less from oil and gas exporters. [22]

Diplomats call it consensus: a COP decision needs every country's agreement. [3] So one objector could block Bowen's 35% goal. [3]

A group that must all agree on a film often ends up with the one nobody minds.

New Scientist expects little from Antalya, with no big declaration or new treaty planned. [3]

Where electricity's share of the world's energy stands today.

Bloomberg says about 20%, and New Scientist says about 23%, against the same 35% goal. [22] [3] Neither article says how it counts.

Brazil, which led last year's climate summit, published its roadmap to end deforestation on 3 November. [23]

It came less than a week before COP31 begins. [23]

The roadmap offers countries 18 policies and a five-step process for national forest plans. [23]

In 2021, more than 140 countries pledged to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030. [23]

At COP30, 93 countries backed this roadmap, short of the 196 needed for a formal decision. [23]

Only 18 countries, and 4 groups of countries, sent in ideas for it. [23]

It hands the 93 backers a guide for their own plans, and nothing forces them to use it. [23]

Lawyers call this soft law, because it binds nobody: the roadmap makes no new commitments. [23] It also sits outside the official COP outcomes. [23]

A coach's training plan only helps the players who choose to follow it.

India objected to voluntary roadmaps in the formal COP30 outcome, then its minister welcomed this one. [23] Russia, home to the largest northern forests, does not support one. [23]

Brazil's deforestation rate has fallen to its lowest on record, down more than 70% since 2022, COP30's president said. [23]

Revolution Wind, a 704-megawatt wind farm off the US north-east coast, began full commercial operation in October. [24]

It sells its power under contracts with utilities in Connecticut and Rhode Island. [24]

Orsted, the Danish company that built it, is the world's largest offshore wind developer. [25]

The Trump administration issued several stop-orders against the project. [25]

Orsted has lost more than 70% of its market value since Trump returned to office in 2025. [25]

Its shares jumped almost 10% after this week's Democratic win, then closed almost 5% higher. [25]

Orsted said on Thursday that core earnings rose 19% in nine months, to 20.2 billion Danish kroner. [24]

A Democratic House could block further repeal of wind and solar tax credits, a Rystad Energy economist says. [25]

Barclays analysts say calmer politics could make new US renewable projects cheaper to finance. [25]

Bankers call this a risk premium: lenders charge more when a government might stop a project. [25]

Stop-orders made US wind look risky, so its money cost more. [25] If that risk falls, so can the charge. [25]

A shop gives credit more cheaply to a customer who always pays on time.

The 19% leaves out new partnerships and cancellation fees. [24] Nine-month profit fell to 2.6 billion kroner, from 6.5 billion. [24]

Orsted says that fall came mainly from cutting the value of its US projects as interest rates rose. [24]

It began full service under contracts with utilities in Connecticut and Rhode Island, and a contract with a named buyer is the income a lender counts on.

Lenders may charge them less if a Democratic Congress makes sudden stop-orders less likely, Barclays analysts say. [25]

Arizona Public Service, the state's largest electric utility, plans to keep its Four Corners coal plant open up to 2038. [9]

It had planned to close the plant in 2031. [9]

The utility expects yearly sales to reach about 80,600 gigawatt-hours in 2041, up from about 34,200 in 2025. [9]

Peak demand would pass 14.5 gigawatts in 2041, against a record of about 9.2 gigawatts set in August. [9]

Big factories and data centres drive the growth. [9]

It will add 2,000 megawatts of solar and 2,500 of batteries by 2029, plus 4,000 of gas through 2036. [9]

State regulators, the Arizona Corporation Commission, will now consider the plan. [9]

APS says big users that never arrive are a risk, so it makes them sign minimum terms and exit fees. [9]

Planners call this a load forecast: a bet on future demand, here that big users will double APS's sales. [9]

APS's forecast has peak demand growing 3.4% a year, so it counts on the coal plant for longer. [9]

A baker who expects a busy year keeps the old oven instead of scrapping it.

APS says keeping the plant could save customers close to $1 billion. [9] The Sierra Club, an environmental group, says it is protecting profits instead. [9]

When the Four Corners coal plant will really close.

APS says it will choose between 2031 and 2038, depending on what customers need. [9]

A Trump order lets the US energy secretary block foreign-made grid equipment judged a security risk. [11]

It can also force the removal of equipment already installed. [11]

Executive Order 14421 was issued on 26 August, and the secretary is Chris Wright. [11]

His department has until 24 December to publish the rules. [11]

The order centres on big transmission equipment of 69 kilovolts and above. [11]

Transformers are already 15% short this year and substations 8%, Wood Mackenzie, an energy analyst, estimates. [11]

Utilities are projected to spend over a trillion dollars on grid upgrades through 2030. [11]

Alice Wu of RMI, a clean energy group, asks what removing equipment would cost people on their bills. [11]

Security engineers call this function over origin: what a machine can do matters more than where it was built. [11]

Most replies that took a side told the US government this, since a flaw can be exploited by anyone, anywhere. [11]

A front door lock is judged by how well it holds, not by where it was made.

Wood Mackenzie counts over $22 billion of grid imports since 2025. [11] RMI and BloombergNEF put 2025 alone at over $30 billion, with China just $3.5 billion. [11]

If foreign grid equipment has to be ripped out and replaced, RMI asks whether that cost lands on their bills. [11]

Oil companies earned 36 billion euros more from EU diesel and petrol than before the war, Greenpeace estimates. [17]

That is 154.4 million euros a day, from 1 March to 19 October. [17]

Germany's share was just under 6.7 billion euros, and France's 5.7 billion. [17]

EU energy ministers discussed cutting bills on 29 October, but reached no decision on a tax. [17]

BP's third-quarter profit hit $8.46 billion, its highest since 2008. [17]

In EU countries with capped pump prices, diesel before tax rose 0.38 euros a litre, against 0.57 euros elsewhere. [17]

Europe buys almost all its oil and gas abroad, and road transport still runs on petrol and diesel. [17]

Refiners call it the crack spread: the gap between crude's price and the fuel made from it. [17]

It has tripled in Europe since the Hormuz crisis began, because there is too little refining capacity. [17]

When the only bakery in town runs short, bread's price rises faster than flour's.

Oil firms reject the charge, saying they only pass on dearer crude. [17] Noah Gordon of a European think tank says that is part of it, and margins rose too. [17]

Before tax, diesel at the pump rose more than crude did, and Greenpeace says that gap went to oil companies. [17]