Climate, in brief

China's carbon dioxide emissions fell 3.1% from July to September. [1]

It was the biggest fall in any three months since the Covid lockdowns of 2022. [1]

China remains by far the world's largest polluter. [2]

Coal use fell 3% and oil use fell 4%. [1]

World climate talks open in Antalya, Turkey, on 9 November. [4] The world is on track for 2.8C of warming by 2100. [4]

So if this fall lasts, the world's largest polluter is cutting its emissions as those talks begin. [2]

Economists split any change in two: cyclical, from things that pass, and structural, from things that stay. [1]

The mild weather belonged to this one quarter. [1] The analysis calls the fall from clean power beating demand a structural fall in fossil fuel use. [1]

A shop sells more in a hot week, but a second shop it opens stays open.

The 3.1% is one analyst's estimate, made from official figures and commercial data. [1]

The outlook depends on energy demand, clean power growth and how China's government answers slower growth. [1]

China burned less coal and oil this summer, and its carbon dioxide fell 3.1%. [1]

Part of that came from mild weather and the Hormuz crisis, the fight over the Gulf's sea route. [1]

Part came from clean power that keeps running, and the analysis gives no split. [1]

"Biggest since Covid" sounds like a turning point, and it says nothing about how much of the fall will last.

Fewer running hours are eating into their profits. [1]

How much of China's fall will last.

The analysis says mild weather explains the slow demand partly but not fully, and gives no split. [1]

China's carbon dioxide fell 3.1% from July to September, the biggest fall in 3 months since the Covid lockdowns of 2022. Its solar, wind and nuclear plants added more than twice the growth in its power demand.

Nearly 90 million people forced from home live in countries increasingly exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat. [16]

That is nearly three-quarters of all forcibly displaced people. [16] Afghanistan and Bangladesh are among those countries. [16]

The agency, UNHCR, looks after refugees for the UN. [16] It published the report ahead of the COP31 climate talks in Antalya. [16]

A Sudanese refugee in Chad told the agency she can go a week without finding safe water. [16] Nearby seasonal riverbeds are drying up. [16]

In the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugee returns were to countries badly exposed to climate hazards. [16]

In sub-Saharan Africa, one in three refugee settlements could face 100-plus days of dangerous heat a year by 2050. [16]

Floods could displace up to 3 million people in Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by year's end. [16]

Only about 10% of climate money reaches fragile or conflict-hit countries, the agency says. [16]

So people who already fled a war often land where little adaptation money arrives. [16]

Disaster scientists split risk into the hazard, who is exposed to it, and how well they can cope. [16]

The heat is the hazard. [16] Refugees' limited cooling, water and reliable energy make it harder to escape. [16]

Two people caught in the same rain get different results if only one has a coat.

Returning to a place exposed to climate hazards puts them at risk of being displaced again. [16]

How many displaced people El Nino will move again.

UNHCR's up to 3 million for East Africa is a warning about floods, and the year is not over. [16]

A senior Iranian lawmaker said ships from India, China, Iraq and Qatar are exempt from Iran's Hormuz limits. [3]

Indian and Chinese ships will pay transit fees, he said, and Qatari ships pass free. [3]

In return, he said, Iran gets medicine from India and political backing from China. [3]

Iran effectively shut the strait early in the war. [3] The US reimposed a naval blockade on Iran's southern ports in July. [3]

About 10.23 million barrels of Gulf crude a day passed through in October, the analytics firm Kpler says. [3] China took about 42% and India 13%. [3]

Qatar shipped no liquefied gas through the strait in August and 1.8 million tonnes in October. [3]

Iraq's crude through the strait rose from 1.69 million barrels a day to 2.65 million over the same months. [3]

One market analyst says the exemptions make only limited difference to oil prices for now. [3]

The exemptions could make the US blockade harder to run, if the US accepts them, a security analyst says. [3]

Scholars call using trade access as a tool of power economic statecraft. [3] Iran is selling passage, for fees, medicine and political support. [3]

A shop that controls the only road into town can let its friends through and charge the rest.

The announcement is not entirely new: Iran began letting some friendly ships through within weeks of the war starting. [3]

An exemption has not meant safety: the Qatari gas carrier Al Mayeda was struck in the Gulf on 30 October. [3]

It says it will collect transit fees from Indian and Chinese ships, and one analyst says that could raise significant money. [3]

Whether the US lets the ships Iran has exempted pass.

The blockade covers ships entering or leaving Iran's ports, and it is unclear if "ships of these countries" means flag, owner or operator. [3]

US senators are due to vote on Monday on bringing a bill that speeds up energy projects to the floor. [18]

The bill would overhaul federal permits for power lines, mines, and both renewable and fossil fuel projects. [19]

Democrats won both chambers of the US Congress on Tuesday, but the new members do not sit until January. [20]

Democratic senators Martin Heinrich and Sheldon Whitehouse negotiated the bill with Republicans Shelley Moore Capito and Mike Lee. [19]

Heinrich told Reuters of the new US Congress: "I'm not going to wait." [19]

Jared Huffman, a senior US House Democrat, and green groups argue a Democratic US Congress could pass a stronger bill. [19]

The top US oil lobbyist, Mike Sommers, wants the bill passed before Democrats take their majority seats. [18]

It would give a major boost to energy projects of all kinds, Semafor reports. [18]

This is a lame-duck session: the old US Congress keeps voting after an election, until the new one sits. [19]

So anyone wanting a deal shaped by today's Senate has only until January. [20] That is why the bill's authors will not delay it. [19]

A football team that has been relegated still plays out its last matches of the season.

Democrats' win emboldens critics who say the permitting bill gives them too many concessions, TD Cowen says. [19]

Whether the US permitting bill passes before January.

TD Cowen, an investment firm, cut its odds from about 40% to about 25% after the election. [19]

Shares in renewable energy firms rose worldwide as Democrats won both chambers of the US Congress. [21]

Orsted, the world's largest offshore wind developer, rose almost 10% within hours and closed almost 5% higher. [21]

Orsted had lost more than 70% of its value since Trump returned as US president in 2025. [21]

First Solar and Sunrun, two US solar firms, each rose around 8%, while Chevron and ExxonMobil, two oil giants, fell. [22]

Renewables made about 30% of US electricity this year, against 50% across the EU and 40% in China. [21]

A Democratic US House could block further repeals of solar and wind tax credits, says Rystad Energy, a consultancy. [21]

Investors call this a risk premium: lenders charge more when a project's rules may change. [21]

Barclays analysts say easing that fear could make new US renewable projects cheaper to finance. [21]

A shop charges a stranger a deposit it would not ask of a regular.

The first market moves may overstate the change, TD Cowen's John Miller told Semafor. [22] Pro-renewables laws still face Trump's veto. [22]

Democrats will gain the power to force testimony and documents when the new US Congress meets in January. [23]

Trump's energy deals are likely to become a central focus. [23]

Democrats want an account of how Venezuela's oil money has been spent. [23] The US seized control of Venezuela's oil exports in January. [23]

The US defence department took a stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, a firm meant to develop Venezuelan oil. [23]

Democrats are also certain to press on nearly $8 billion of energy projects cancelled in states that backed Kamala Harris. [23]

Frank Pallone, likely chair of the US House energy committee, promises an aggressive hunt for corruption. [23]

Firms in these deals now carry a political risk: USA Rare Earth warned its investors of litigation and scrutiny. [23]

Political scientists call this congressional oversight: committees check what a president's team has done. [23]

Until now Democrats could only send letters; committee control lets them compel answers. [23]

A teacher can ask a class who broke a window, but only the head can call in parents.

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick says of the questions on mineral deals: "This is a waste of time." [23]

Small US oil and gas wells cause most of the methane from well sites, a satellite study finds. [24]

Hundreds of thousands of these marginal wells each make under 15 barrels of oil equivalent a day. [24] Together they make about 5% of US oil and gas. [24]

Yet they cause about 58% of methane from well sites and 40% across the oil and gas supply chain. [24]

Mark Omara of the Environmental Defense Fund, a US non-profit, and colleagues used MethaneSat, a methane-spotting satellite. [24]

Data covered over 80% of US onshore oil and gas output, from May 2024 to June 2025. [24] Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas to tackle, after carbon dioxide. [24]

Last month the Trump administration moved to relax methane rules, including standards for marginal wells. [24]

Closing or fixing these wells could cut methane fast without much denting of oil and gas output. [24]

Scientists measure this as methane intensity: methane lost for each unit of gas sold. [24] The industry's target is 0.2%. [24]

A well that makes little gas spreads its leak over little fuel. [24] So marginal wells reach an estimated 60%, 300 times that target. [24]

A dripping tap on a tiny tank loses a bigger share than the same drip on a big one.

Harvard's Daniel Jacob warns the leaks are hard to fix, because they are spread across so many small sites. [24]

Battery-electric cars took 32% of new UK car sales in October, and petrol fell to 37.2%. [8] That is the closest they have been. [8]

The figures come from the SMMT, the UK car industry's trade group. [8]

Electric registrations jumped 32.7% to 48,858, while petrol fell 11.6% to 56,876. [8]

In March 2024, petrol held 55.9% of the market and electric cars 15.2%. [8]

Electrek, an electric car news site, expects the lines to cross by about August 2027, or as soon as December. [8]

The fastest-growing brands are mostly Chinese: BYD rose 73% to 6,065 cars. [8]

Carmakers say they have spent billions on discounts and cheap loans to move electric cars. [8]

Regulators call this a sales mandate: a rule that sets the share of a carmaker's sales that must be zero-emission. [8]

The UK rule asks for 33% this year, and the SMMT forecasts 27.2%. [8] Electrek says carmakers cut prices to get closer, and buyers respond. [8]

A teacher who sets a minimum page count gets it, even from pupils who would have written less.

The SMMT wants the targets cut, and says rules cannot create demand. [8] Electrek, an electric car news site, says the sales show otherwise. [8]

How to tell a fall in carbon that lasts from one that bounces back

China's carbon dioxide falls 3.1% in 3 months

List what pushed it: mild weather, the Hormuz crisis hitting oil demand, slow growth, more clean power

Ask of each cause: will it still be here after it stops being news?

Mild weather and a war can pass, so that part can come back

Panels and electric cars keep working, so that part stays down

One fall can hold two different things: the part from a mild summer can come back with a hot one, and the part from solar panels already built does not.

Four causes behind China's 3.1% fall. Marking each as passing or lasting is our own sorting, and no source gives the split in numbers.

rain can end the dry spell, but leaks 18.5% above forecast stay until the pipes are mended, so the shortage has a passing part and a lasting part

Electrek separates the spike that comes every December, when carmakers push to meet targets, from the steady monthly trend under it, before saying when the lines cross

the El Nino itself passes, while warming has already cut world crop yields by about 5%, so researchers treat the year's losses and the long loss as separate

The line can move: a driver who buys an electric car during a fuel shock keeps it after fuel gets cheap, so a passing cause can leave a lasting result.

A coal plant owner in China, a driver in Britain and a negotiator in Antalya are each betting on which part of this fall stays.

UK buyers are turning to them: Jaecoo more than doubled and Chery nearly tripled in October. [8]

Electric cars took 32% of new car sales in Britain in October, the closest they have come to petrol's 37.2%.

Saudi Arabia issued alerts on Thursday warning of possible danger in Yanbu, its oil export port on the Red Sea. [5]

Yemen's Houthis, backed by Iran, have been attacking the kingdom. [5] They had not claimed any attack on Thursday. [5]

The East-West pipeline runs about 750 miles across Saudi Arabia to Yanbu. [25]

About 6 million barrels of oil a day were moving through it weeks after drones hit it in September. [25]

Saudi Arabia plans to expand it to as much as 10 million barrels a day within 2 to 3 years. [25]

Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest oil exporter. [5] The pipeline is considered its lifeline, because oil can leave without passing Hormuz. [25]

Energy analysts call a narrow passage like Hormuz a chokepoint. [26] The pipeline lets Saudi oil reach ships without passing through it. [25]

When the main road into town is blocked, drivers take the back lane, and the back lane gets busy.

Nearly 200 countries, not including the US, meet in Antalya from 9 November for COP31, the UN climate summit. [27] [4]

They will try to agree more than 100 separate texts, after first agreeing what is on the agenda. [27]

Turkey holds the presidency and hosts the talks, while Australia runs the negotiations. [27]

The pair plan a cover text: one political document summing up the results, plus issues not on the agenda. [27]

It could admit warming will overshoot the 1.5C limit. [27]

Last year's COP30 in Brazil agreed no fresh promises to move away from fossil fuels or end deforestation. [4]

The texts include a global goal on coping with climate harm, and a contested process on cutting emissions. [27]

Treaty negotiators mark anything not yet agreed in square brackets. [27] Agreement comes once all brackets are gone. [27]

Each decision needs every country's consent, so one objection keeps a bracket in. [4] [27]

Friends choosing a film cannot book until the last one stops saying no.

Critics say the summits are no longer fit for purpose, New Scientist reports, because of that need for consensus. [4]

Andy Burnham, Britain's prime minister since July, goes to COP31 next week, probably for no more than a day. [28]

France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Friedrich Merz are skipping it, with both facing anger over living costs. [28]

Burnham's government now asks wind and solar projects to show how they will cut bills before they get support. [28]

It cut a heat pump subsidy by up to £2.5 billion. [28]

It approved Jackdaw, a new North Sea gas field. [28] A decision on the Rosebank oil field is expected by the end of the year. [28]

Countries hit hardest by climate change see Britain as a key ally. [28] So its North Sea choices may get a cool reception. [28]

Mohamed Adow of the think tank Power Shift Africa says approving Rosebank "would be a betrayal". [28]

A Labour MP, unnamed, says the finance ministry is pressing for Rosebank because it wants the tax. [28]

PG&E, northern California's main power company, has warned about 25,000 customers to expect delays in getting connected to the grid. [12]

Waits run from 1 to 6 months for housing and offices, and to 2027 and beyond for public works. [12]

More than 60 renewable and storage projects face undetermined delays, PG&E says. [12] Together they could add at least 15 gigawatts by 2030. [12]

California's governor failed to broker a deal limiting what power firms owe for wildfires, and PG&E's shares fell. [12]

The $2 billion of work was planned for 2027. [12]

California has a goal of 6 gigawatts of new clean energy and storage by 2032. [12] Delays could keep over 3 gigawatts of old gas plants running, one industry chief says. [12]

Lawyers call it inverse condemnation: California holds power firms liable for fires their equipment starts, even with no negligence. [12]

So every power line can carry a business-ending bill. [12] PG&E says that means weaker credit, dearer loans and higher bills. [12]

A shop that could be sued for everything it owns over one accident stops opening new branches.

Wildfire victims and consumer advocates call PG&E's cutbacks a form of blackmail, Canary Media reports. [12]

A project late past 2030 loses its US tax credit, and one industry chief says that adds at least 30% to the cost of its goods. [12]

Which of PG&E's clean power projects will be delayed, and how long.

PG&E gave only undetermined delays for more than 60 projects. [12]