Finance, in brief

Kevin Warsh told the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference the US central bank will have work to do if inflation does not fall convincingly toward 2%. [10][11][15]

It was his first speech as chairman. Wall Street had not heard from him for a month. [6][7]

Traders' bets on a quarter-point rise at the September meeting jumped to 55.7%, from 35.4% the day before. [1]

The Fed's rate has sat between 3.50% and 3.75% since July, when a quarter of the voting members dissented and asked for a rise. [3][9]

Warsh has scrapped forward guidance, the practice of telling markets in advance which way rates are heading. He says it has overstayed its welcome. [4][7]

He wants what he calls a quieter Fed. Markets should not be looking primarily to the central bank for their next trade, he said. [4]

He had been silent for a month, so the speech was the only new signal there was. Markets repriced within the hour. [3][7]

Short-term borrowing costs moved most. The interest rate on two-year US government debt rose to 4.36% from 4.232%. [1][8]

The dollar had its biggest day in two and a half months. Gold fell 3.19% to $4,454.52 an ounce. [1]

Shares fell, led by technology and by smaller companies, which feel higher rates soonest. [12] The S&P 500 closed 0.25% lower and the Russell 2000 lost 1.4%. [1]

Warsh still promised nothing. He said he stood there committed to a discipline, not to a decision. [2]

It was the closest he has come to saying a rise may be needed, and he did not say one was imminent. [13][16]

The decision comes on 16 September. August's jobs and inflation figures land first. [3][5][17]

Why it matters. Watch the August jobs and inflation figures due in the next fortnight - a firm reading is what would turn the coin flip into a rise. [17][54]

Advent International and the payments firm Stripe abandoned their offer for PayPal, $60.50 a share and worth about $53bn. [19][20] The shares fell 13% to 17% before trading opened. [21][22]

Why it matters. Most of PayPal's recent rise was the bid rather than the business, so the fall is the deal's odds being erased. [22]

The rate Germany pays to borrow for ten years reached its highest in 15 years, and its two-year rate rose to 2.86%. [18][23]

Why it matters. Germany is the euro zone's benchmark borrower, so the cost of money for every government and household there is set against it.

August euro-zone inflation is expected at 3.0%, up from 2.9% in July, with Goldman Sachs at 3.36% and DekaBank at 3.3%. [24] An ECB rate-setter said there is a good case to raise next month. [25]

Why it matters. Europe is on the same road as the Fed, one month behind - and energy costs, not wages, are driving it. [24]

Trump announced US majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves, through a partnership with private firms and at no cost to taxpayers. [26] He said it would more than double American reserves. [27]

Why it matters. Almost no detail was published, and Venezuela pumps only about 1.25 million barrels a day against reserves that size. [26]

Brent settled at $89.31 a barrel and US crude at $83.40. Over the week Brent lost more than 5% and US crude more than 4%. [28]

Why it matters. Two things pushed together: a rumoured deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and a Fed that now looks likelier to raise. [28]

Japan spent 15.4 trillion yen, about $98.7bn, buying its own currency between 30 July and 26 August. It was a record, and a rare joint move with the United States. [29]

Why it matters. A defence that big is a government paying real money to slow a market it cannot stop. [29]

Brazil's central bank is studying limits on lenders. Debt payments excluding mortgages hit a record 26.6% of income in June, and 52.8 million people carry card or instalment balances. [30] Personal loan defaults are the highest since 2009. [31]

Why it matters. Lula faces an election with defaults rising, and the bank chose to lean on lenders rather than cap what households may owe. [30][31]

Moody's cut Senegal to Caa2, noting that without an IMF programme it is raising financing worth about a quarter of its economy on regional markets. [32] Morningstar DBRS moved Colombia's outlook to stable at BB (high). [33]

Why it matters. Same week, opposite directions - what separates them is whether a credible budget plan exists, not how much each owes. [32][33]

Shein's Hong Kong listing on 31 August is expected to value it at $27bn, against $66bn in 2023. Its US revenue fell 3.5% in 2025. [34]

Why it matters. Tariffs and the end of the small-parcel exemption took the growth story out, and the valuation followed. [34]

BYD's second-quarter net profit rose 30% to 8.2 billion yuan, about $1.22bn, ending four straight quarterly falls. Analysts had expected 48%. Revenue still fell 3.2%. [35]

Why it matters. Exports carried it: overseas shipments jumped 71% in the first half to more than 790,000 cars, 44% of everything it sold. [35]

Meituan's revenue rose 14.4% to 104.6 billion yuan and adjusted net profit reached 2.5 billion yuan, helped by spending less on subsidies. [36]

Why it matters. China's delivery price war is ending the usual way, with the survivor stopping the discounts and the cheap lunch going away. [36]

Agricultural Bank of China's half-year profit rose 5.8% and its bad-loan ratio fell to 1.25%. China Construction Bank's rose 5.56%, to 171 billion yuan. [37][38]

Why it matters. Both did it on margins of 1.28% and 1.37% between what they pay savers and charge borrowers - thin, because the state sets the price. [37][38]

Marvell shares dropped 7.5% before the open after results, as investors decided its deal with Alphabet's Google would not deliver growth as fast as hoped. [39]

Why it matters. The deal was announced, the price rose, and only now is the timetable being read. [39]

Workday beat forecasts at $2.75 a share against $2.61 expected, then ignored the Silver Lake takeover talk on its earnings call entirely. [40]

Why it matters. The stock barely moved on a beat, because the market is waiting on a deal headline - today's lead in miniature. [40]

Blue Owl led a $2.4bn package of loans and notes at 9% interest, so Iren can buy Nvidia computing equipment in stages. Pimco also backed it. [41]

Why it matters. Nine per cent is what it now costs to buy AI hardware with borrowed money from outside the banking system. [41]

Granite Asia raised more than $500m for a pan-Asian fund and Partners Group won a $1bn Asian mandate. Asia is a third of world output and 4% of private lending. [42]

Why it matters. That gap is the whole pitch, and it means new money is arriving where the track record is shortest. [42]

India's foreign currency reserves reached $729.33bn in the week to 21 August, an eighth straight weekly rise, up about $63bn over that run. [43]

Why it matters. That pile is what the Reserve Bank spends when the rupee is under pressure, and a stronger dollar makes pressure likelier. [43]

The Reserve Bank of India will buy back 300 billion rupees of government debt on 3 September, easing a wall of more than 6 trillion rupees of bonds coming due. [44]

Why it matters. Repaying early while money is available is cheaper than refinancing in a year that may not be calm. [44]

Canada's economy grew at a 3.3% annual pace in the second quarter, its best since 2023 and above the Bank of Canada's 2.5% forecast. The Canadian dollar still slipped to C$1.3900. [45]

Why it matters. The growth figure predates the latest tariff fight, and a stronger US dollar beat it. [45]

Among Americans aged 18 to 34 who do not own a home, 29% expect to buy within five years, down from 57% in 2015. [46] The 30-year mortgage rate held at 6.73%. [47]

Why it matters. This is where Warsh's talk of higher rates lands - the mortgage rate is that expectation with a price on it.

Frontline reported a record $659.2m net profit for the second quarter, $2.96 a share, on revenue of $753.27m, and holds $1.2bn in cash. [48]

Why it matters. Disrupted oil routes make voyages longer, and a tanker owner is paid by the voyage. [48]

India chairs the BRICS summit on 12 and 13 September, where members will press for trade settled in national currencies and adopt a supply-chain framework. [49]

Why it matters. Every scheme for avoiding the dollar gains a little each time the dollar rises, and on Friday it rose. [49][1]

Klarna's chief executive bought 692,506 shares for about $9.95m on 26 August, and the stock rose 4.9% before the open once the filing appeared. [50]

Why it matters. An insider buying is one of the few signals a company cannot stage, which is why a small purchase moved a big price. [50]

Thomas Rabe, chief executive of the German media group Bertelsmann, told Reuters it could complete one or two more large acquisitions in the next few months. [51]

Why it matters. Deal talk returning to Europe while the cost of borrowing rises is an unusual pairing. [51]

BBVA Argentina's revenue came in 17.45% below forecasts at $630.29m and the shares fell 2.71%. Profit adjusted for inflation still rose 44.6% from the first quarter. [52]

Why it matters. Both numbers are true, and which one you quote depends on whether you strip inflation out. [52]

About 70 owners at the fire-hit Wang Fuk Court estate, 3.5% of the total, have refused Hong Kong's buy-back offer before Monday's deadline. A forced purchase would pay them less. [53]

Why it matters. A clean case of a price that is correct and still not enough. [53]

The US jobs report and Broadcom's results are the next hurdles for a market that has been climbing on strong company profits. [54][55]

Why it matters. Both feed the same decision: jobs are the Fed's other duty, and Broadcom sets the mood on AI spending. [54][55]

After the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Asian economies are rebuilding how they buy oil and gas. Around 90% of the crude passing the strait goes to Asia-Pacific. [56]

Why it matters. The under-covered half of the oil story: the buyers changed their plumbing while everyone watched the price. [56]