Finance, in brief

Japan's ten-year government bond yield reached 3% on Tuesday. That is the interest its government pays to borrow for ten years, and it has not been that high since 1996. [1]

It happened alongside a broad selloff. Germany's and France's long-term rates hit 15-year highs on Monday, and French government bond futures traded at their lowest since they launched in 2012. [2]

Australia's ten-year rate jumped as much as 0.10 percentage points to 5.19%, its highest since July 2011. Its three-year rate rose to 4.73%. [4]

The US ten-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.78%, a near 20-month high and its highest since January 2025. The 30-year rate sat at 5.25%, and long-dated US debt has recently touched levels last seen in June 2007. [2][3][6]

Nobody dumped anything. Masahiko Loo of State Street Investment Management called it a buyers' strike rather than a sellers' panic: the money that used to arrive simply did not. [1]

Here is why that matters. Japan is one of the world's largest pools of savings, and for years it was a steady buyer of other countries' government bonds. [1]

They are not pulling that money home. They are adding less to it. One of the world's largest pools of savings buying less is enough to lift what every other government pays. [1]

Three other things pushed the same way. Oil went back above $91 after the United States and Iran exchanged strikes, Kevin Warsh said the US central bank may have to raise rates, and governments are borrowing heavily. [2][23][41]

Governments are also bidding against companies. US debt passed $40 trillion in August, technology firms are selling long-dated bonds to pay for AI data centres, and about $200 billion more top-rated company debt is expected in September. [3]

Where this lands on a household: the US ten-year rate is the number lenders start from when they price a new 30-year mortgage there. [3]

Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, said American yields had been fairly calm in August compared with the rest of the world. Germany, France, Japan and Australia all disagree with that comparison. [3]

The cost of getting this wrong is on record. Silicon Valley Bank died in 2023 after at least $4.52 billion of losses on long-term bonds when rates rose. [11]

Why it matters. Watch Friday's US jobs figures. Forecasters expect about 50,000 jobs added after a fall of 23,000 in July, and a weak number is the one thing that would take a September rate rise off the table. [37]

The yen traded at 159.81 per dollar on Tuesday after the US treasury secretary said he believes Japan's government and central bank will act to strengthen it. Markets put a 73% chance on a Japanese rate rise this month. [7]

Why it matters. A rate rise in Japan is the same event as the bond move above, seen from the currency side.

The United States and Iran exchanged attacks for the first time in a month. Brent crude rose 56 cents to $91.05 a barrel on Tuesday, after closing above $90 on Monday. [23][22]

Why it matters. Dearer oil means dearer everything later, which is the main reason bond buyers are asking for more.

The US president posted an AI-generated clip saying Iran's oil hub at Kharg Island had been blown to smithereens. Hours later there was no evidence of any attack, and the US defence department did not respond to questions. [24]

Why it matters. Oil prices are being set partly by claims that cannot be checked.

Gold traded around $4,445 an ounce on Tuesday after dropping more than 3.5% over the previous two sessions. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,437.10 by 02:35 GMT, while gold futures edged up to about $4,493 and silver traded at about $66.67. [23][25][26]

Why it matters. Gold pays no interest, so it gets less attractive every time bonds pay more.

Copper settled 0.12% lower as expectations of higher US rates offset supply worries. Chile's July output fell 9.4% year on year to 403,424 tonnes, and the global refined market swung to a 60,000-tonne shortfall in June from a surplus in May. [27]

Why it matters. A shortage that does not move the price tells you the rate story is currently louder than the metal story.

Wall Street slipped as fighting resumed, though August still ended higher: the Dow rose 1.3% over the month, the S&P 500 2.6% and the Nasdaq 3.9%. US futures were down slightly on Monday morning. [3][22][50]

Why it matters. Five straight rising months for the Dow, ending on a bond and oil scare.

September ranks as the weakest month across the major US indices going back decades, according to the 2026 Stock Trader's Almanac: the Dow down 0.8% on average since 1950, the S&P 500 0.7%, the Nasdaq 0.9% since 1971. [38]

Why it matters. A pattern drawn from decades that had nothing like today's interest rates.

Oppenheimer told clients that September's weakest returns have come when the S&P 500 starts the month below its 200-day average price, which is not the case this year. [39]

Why it matters. The seasonal average is not a forecast, and the people quoting it know that.

The former chairman of the US central bank remains a governor and one of the twelve members who vote on 16 September. Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole speech as chairman to blame the institution for 65 months of high inflation. [40]

Why it matters. The man being blamed helps decide the response.

Markets flipped to expecting a September rate rise after Kevin Warsh spoke. Scott Bessent told CNBC that this is a supply shock, and that you do not normally raise rates into one. [41]

Why it matters. America's finance chief and its central bank chief are now publicly disagreeing in the same week.

Canada, New Zealand and Malaysia all decide on interest rates this week. Eurozone inflation figures are due, and US August payrolls land on Friday. Forecasters expect about 50,000 jobs added, after a fall of 23,000 in July. [36][37]

Why it matters. A week of separate decisions that will all be read through the same bond market.

The gap between ten-year and two-year US government rates narrowed to 0.37 percentage points on Friday, suggesting a slowdown. The gap between ten-year and three-month rates is near a four-year high at 0.88, suggesting the opposite. [49]

Why it matters. The most-watched recession signal in finance currently contradicts itself.

Andrew Bailey, who runs the Bank of England and chairs the Financial Stability Board, wrote a two-page letter. He warned that advanced AI models could trigger a disorderly correction in global markets and sharply raise cyber risks. [9]

Why it matters. The body that coordinates financial regulation worldwide is now treating AI as a stability question.

Markus Brunnermeier's Jackson Hole paper argued that if markets are run by AI agents that understand central banks better than central banks understand markets, there is a case for more opacity. [10]

Why it matters. It would reverse thirty years of central banks trying to be clearer.

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned at Jackson Hole of pressure from fiscal dominance, where governments lean on central banks. Japan's prime minister has pressed the Bank of Japan not to raise rates despite rising inflation. [8]

Why it matters. It names who wins if a central bank and a finance ministry disagree.

Finance ministers and central bank governors met in Asheville, with Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh giving the opening remarks. JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs's David Solomon attended. [30][32]

Why it matters. Bessent used it to argue that other countries should copy US deregulation and private-sector growth.

At the same meeting, the US treasury secretary made the case to chief executives that rules written after the last financial crisis have squeezed small banks. [31]

Why it matters. The pitch lands in a week when a court has just finished apportioning blame for a bank that failed in 2023.

A US judge ruled in a 206-page decision that the failed bank's former parent cannot recover $1.71 billion from the deposit insurer. She said its finance chief, treasurer and others acted negligently by taking excessive risks. [11]

Why it matters. The risk they took was buying long-term government bonds, which is exactly the trade being repriced today.

Cambodia's central bank rejected lenders' request to keep relaxed loan rules going until the end of 2026, saying an extension could hide weak credit and hurt growth. [33]

Why it matters. A regulator choosing to see bad loans now rather than later.

After a rare national meeting of investment agencies on Friday, analysts expect China to accelerate government bond issuance to fund infrastructure and keep growth on track. [34]

Why it matters. More government bonds for sale, in a week when the world is already short of buyers.

Analysts expect investor money to flow to emerging markets after the US Treasury doubled its planned buybacks of long-dated debt. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution said markets are looking for places to ride out the debt bonanza. [35]

Why it matters. When rich countries try to hold their long rates down, the money looks elsewhere for a return.

Aon agreed to buy the insurance broker USI Insurance Services from the private equity firm KKR for $17 billion, one of the biggest insurance deals in years. [12]

Why it matters. Insurance broking is heavily fragmented, and buyers are paying up to consolidate it.

Veritas Capital agreed to buy the British heat-treatment firm Bodycote, the largest of a summer run that has taken UK takeovers past $100 billion. Epiris offered about 1 billion pounds for Gamma Communications. [13]

Why it matters. Foreign buyout firms are finding British listed companies cheap.

The Norwegian oil firm DNO agreed to buy the London-listed oil and gas company Capricorn Energy for $396 million, about 292 million pounds. [16][13]

Why it matters. Another British-listed company leaving the market, this time to a Nordic buyer.

Frasers Group, the British retailer founded by Mike Ashley, said it aims to raise its stake in the German fashion company Hugo Boss above 50%. It already holds 33.05 million shares, or 47.89%. [18]

Why it matters. Crossing half turns a large shareholder into an owner.

Traders now put roughly 85% odds on Paramount Skydance completing its $110 billion purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery. [17]

Why it matters. A market price on whether a legal challenge succeeds, set by people with money on the answer.

The company made its first bitcoin purchase since June, ending ten weeks in which it sold 6,948 coins for $432.5 million. It now holds 845,050 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,412, a total of $63.73 billion. [19][20]

Why it matters. It had been selling to fund dividends and share buybacks, which is the opposite of the story it tells.

Bitcoin gained 24% in August, on pace for its strongest month in almost two years. [19]

Why it matters. A rally running against a bond market that is making safe interest look attractive again.

Bitcoin priced in won on Upbit, South Korea's largest exchange, traded about 1% above the dollar price on Binance. It has held a premium for a week, the longest run since early May. [21]

Why it matters. The gap measures how hard it is to move money across a border, not what bitcoin is worth.

The average lowest wage US workers say they would accept for a new job reached $88,387 in July, a series high for the New York Federal Reserve's survey, and more than $10,000 above March 2025. [28]

Why it matters. Workers are demanding more to move at a time when employers want to offer less.

The US president said the economy could grow as fast as 20% and that this should not make the US central bank raise rates. The economy grew at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, and only one quarter since 1947 has reached 20%. [29]

Why it matters. The claim is aimed at the same rate decision the bond market is pricing.

Science Applications International, a US government technology contractor, reported adjusted earnings of $3.01 a share against a $2.31 forecast, on revenue of $1.88 billion. Its shares rose about 7% before the market opened. [42]

Why it matters. Government contracting is holding up while consumer-facing earnings wobble.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia said first-half net profit rose 17.5% to 31.2 trillion rupiah, with loans growing 16.2% against a 12.7% industry average. It raised its full-year loan growth guidance to 8-10%. [43]

Why it matters. An emerging-market bank growing while rich-world borrowing costs climb.

Goldman Sachs found loans not being repaid in the direct lending market are running below historical averages at under 2%, while the extra interest such loans charge is about 0.50 percentage points above 2025's levels. [44]

Why it matters. Lending outside banks is being repriced without anything visibly breaking.

FirstCash, which runs more than 3,300 pawn stores across the US, Latin America and the UK, raised its unsecured bank facility from $700 million to $1.055 billion and pushed the repayment date from 2029 to 2031. [45]

Why it matters. A lender of last resort to households is arranging more funding, two years early.

Canada's B2Gold, Australian-listed Perseus and unnamed Chinese groups are examining deals over Turaco Gold, which controls 80% of the Afema project in Cote d'Ivoire and its estimated 4.65 million ounces. No formal offer has been made. [46]

Why it matters. Gold near $4,445 an ounce makes a $410 million mine plan look different.

The chipmaker reports earnings this week with a market value of about $1.75 trillion, larger than Tesla, SpaceX or Eli Lilly. Five years ago only two companies were worth $2 trillion. [47]

Why it matters. These are the firms whose bond sales are competing with governments for savings.

Hyperliquid has generated more than $1.51 billion in cumulative trading fees and about $1.22 billion in cumulative protocol revenue. Its HYPE token gives holders no ownership claim on the company. [48]

Why it matters. Revenue and ownership have come apart, which is a hard thing to value.