Finance, in brief

Japan's finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, said on Friday that Donald Trump had raised concern about the weak yen when he met Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in New York on Tuesday. [1]

Takaichi confirmed it. She said the US side had said the weak yen was making American trade harder, and that she had replied that an undervalued yen is a problem. [1]

Governments usually keep what leaders say about currencies private. Katayama said she was disclosing it for the first time after checking with the prime minister's office. [1][4]

Hours later Katayama held a call with Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary. Japan's finance ministry said both agreed the yen is undervalued and that the two countries will work more closely together. [1][5]

Bessent posted that they had discussed the desirability of a strong yen that reflects Japan's strong economy. [6]

The yen rose from 158.60 per dollar to about 157.20, a gain of 1.06% and its best day against the dollar since 7 September. [1][2]

It had been sliding towards 160 per dollar, the level where traders think Japan is most likely to step in and buy yen. [3][7]

Japan's central bank checked prices with dealers on Friday, a step that has often come just before it buys yen. [1]

Japan and the US bought yen together on 31 July, their first joint move since 1998, and Japan spent a record 15.4 trillion yen, about $97.4 billion, in the month to 26 August. The yen still headed for a second weekly fall. [3][1]

The dollar has been rising against most currencies because US bonds pay more, the US economy is strong and the US central bank is expected to raise rates again. [1][3]

A weak yen raises the cost of the fuel Japan imports, which is already dear because of the war with Iran. The US worries that a sell-off in Japanese bonds could spread to US bonds. [1]

Japan's 10-year government bond yield jumped to 3.115% on Friday, a 30-year high, after the fall in US bond prices. [1]

A second minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said the era of cheap-money stimulus known as Abenomics is over. That answered Bessent, who had said Japan should put fighting inflation before boosting growth. [1]

Why it matters. The next test is whether the yen slides back towards 160 when US jobs figures land on 2 October; a second joint purchase of yen would show the two governments meant what they said.

The yield on the 10-year US government bond, the rate that sets most American loan prices, closed at about 5.19% on Friday. [9] That is its highest close since July 2007, before the global financial crisis. [9] It touched 5.208% on Thursday after its biggest two-day climb since last year's tariff shock. [14][10] The 30-year bond was flat at about 5.46% after reaching its highest since 2004. [8] Traders blame dear oil, strong economic figures and bets that the US central bank will raise rates again. [8][10]

Why it matters. Mortgage and car-loan rates move almost in step with the 10-year, so a household borrowing next month pays more because of this week. [14]

BNP Paribas, a French bank, told clients it expects the US 30-year bond yield to reach 5.6%, from 5.43% on Thursday and 4.83% at the start of the year. [11] Most US borrowing is short-term, so each rate rise by the US central bank quickly lifts what the US government pays. [11] If the four rises traders expect all happen, the interest bill rises by $116 billion in the first year and about $168 billion by the second. [11] That second figure would wipe out all the extra tariff money collected in 2025, the bank said. [11]

Why it matters. It lands on future taxpayers, and on anyone whose pension holds long US bonds, which lose value as yields rise. [11]

US shares rose on Friday and ended the week higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.49% to 7,742 and the Dow rose 0.91%. [15] Microsoft rallied after adding a coding tool and an always-on AI helper to its Copilot app. [15] Akamai, which runs internet and cloud services, surged after signing an $11.6 billion cloud deal with Anthropic, the AI company that makes Claude. The deal includes a warrant that could give Anthropic up to 5% of Akamai. [15] The S&P 500 traded at just under 19 times expected profits this week, its lowest since 2023. [15]

Why it matters. A fund manager called the Akamai deal another circular deal, meaning AI companies buying from each other, yet said it shows money is still being spent. [15]

The S&P 500 is about flat in September and still up more than 12% this year. [16] But nine of its 11 sectors are down for the month, with banks and utilities down more than 5%. [16] A version of the index that weights every company equally, a gauge of the typical share, is down about 4% in September. [16] Technology and chip shares have carried the average. Micron, a memory-chip maker now worth more than $1 trillion, reports on Wednesday. [16]

Why it matters. A saver whose fund tracks the index feels fine. One holding banks or utilities does not, and the headline number hides the gap. [16]

Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, one of the US central bank's regional branches, said on Friday that her biggest worry is that people get used to high prices. [17] US inflation has been above the 2% target for more than five years, and the US central bank's preferred gauge rose 3.7% in the year to July. [17] She said policy needs to stay restrictive and that a whole generation has grown up without steady prices. [17] Bond yields are rising because real rates rose, not because faith in falling inflation is lost, she said. [18]

Why it matters. Hammack votes on rates this year, and her words were one reason traders raised their odds on an October rise. [17][2]

The US central bank's next meeting is on 27 and 28 October, days before midterm elections that decide how much room Donald Trump has for the rest of his term. [19] Traders put roughly 70% odds on a quarter-point rise there, which would lift rates to a range of 4% to 4.25%. [19] A week ago many expected the September rise to buy time. [19] Then business activity hit a five-year high, retail sales were strong and the last jobs report beat forecasts. [19] Trump has accused the US central bank of political motives and demanded much lower rates. [19]

Why it matters. The US central bank says it ignores the election calendar and has moved rates before elections before. A rise now would test that against a president who attacks it by name. [19]

Kevin Warsh, 127 days into chairing the US central bank, has shortened press conferences and set up five task forces on how the bank works. [20] He has not cut the bank's bond holdings, one of his priorities, because inflation came first. [20] He judges policy by what he calls financial conditions: share prices, bond trading, the dollar and credit. He says credit is still easy. [20] The two-year US bond yield sat nearly a full point above the bank's own rate on Wednesday, the widest gap since 2023, a sign traders expect more rises. [20]

Why it matters. His way of reading the market can turn circular: the market prices what it expects him to do, and then he reads the market. [20]

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran has sent a seven-day plan through mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks with the US. [21] Iran's conditions include an immediate end to the US naval blockade and the release of frozen Iranian assets. [21] Brent crude, the world oil benchmark, fell about 2% on Friday to around $104.50 and ended the week lower, though still above $100. [2][26][23] An analyst at the data firm Kpler said every headline about productive talks should be treated as short-lived until a concrete step, such as the blockade easing, happens. [22]

Why it matters. Oil above $100 is what is keeping inflation and bond yields up, so this plan matters to borrowers far from the Gulf. [10][23]

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying the Trump administration to keep economic pressure on Iran and not ease sanctions or the naval blockade, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. [22] The Gulf states generally agree the US should not escalate militarily. [22] But they have swung against any accommodation of Iran, even as Qatar and other mediators try to convene talks in Oman. [22] Trump said on Tuesday he believed the two sides would meet again soon. [22]

Why it matters. The countries whose oil is shipped past Iran's coast now want the economic squeeze kept on. The oil market is hoping for the opposite. [22][23]

Saudi Arabia exported 6 million barrels of crude a day in September, the most since the war with Iran began about seven months ago, according to the data firm Kpler. [24] That is nearly 80% more than August's 3.4 million, and back to the 2025 monthly average. [24] It happened even though the East-West pipeline, which lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, was shut this month after a drone attack from Iraq. [24] Saudi Arabia sent tankers back through Hormuz along a lane the US military has carved out off Oman's coast. [24]

Why it matters. More Gulf oil reaching buyers is why Brent pulled back from nearly $110 after the pipeline shut. [24]

Nine tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from a ten-day average of 18, according to ship-tracking reports. [25] Owners have grown wary after strikes on tankers, Houthi threats in the Red Sea and the pipeline shutdown in Saudi Arabia. [25] The shortage of ships willing to sail pushed the cost of hiring a very large crude carrier from the Gulf to China to a record $1.27 million on Monday. [25] Saudi Arabia's export surge has also used up the Gulf's capacity for moving oil between ships at sea, Reuters reported. [25]

Why it matters. The record rate is on the Gulf-to-China route, so China's refiners pay it first. [25]

European gas prices are on track for a weekly loss of more than 5%, helped by hopes of progress on ending the war and by mild weather that is delaying heating demand. [22] The benchmark Dutch contract fell about 4% on Friday to around 72 euros a megawatt-hour. [22] EU officials say supplies are stable, but storage is only about 70% full, so the market is sensitive to any disruption. [22] Piped gas from Norway has fallen during maintenance at gas facilities. [22]

Why it matters. European households pay for gas bought at this price this winter, and a 70% store leaves less room if flows are cut. [22]

BASF, the dominant chemicals company in Europe, said on Friday it is in exploratory talks to take over its smaller German rival Evonik. It has also approached Evonik's biggest shareholder, the RAG Foundation, which holds 43.8%. [28][27] The two had combined sales of about 74 billion euros last year. [27] Evonik shares rose 7% and BASF fell 3%. [27] Germany's chemicals industry has been squeezed by high energy costs and weak demand, and its trade body expects output to fall 1.5% this year. [27] Evonik is worth about 8.4 billion euros on the stock market. [27]

Why it matters. The RAG Foundation's answer decides it. The industry's high energy costs are the reason both companies are talking. [27]

Genel Energy, a British oil company, raised its cash offer for Capricorn Energy to $436 million on Friday, topping a rival bid from Norway's DNO. [30] Capricorn owns oil fields in Egypt's Western Desert, which both bidders want. [30] Genel had won the board's backing with a $360 million bid in July, then DNO offered $396 million this month. [30] The new offer is about $5.74 a share, a 10% premium to DNO's, and Capricorn's board switched back to Genel. [30] Capricorn shares jumped 12.2% to a 15-year high. [30] DNO declined to say whether it would bid again. [30]

Why it matters. Capricorn has become a prized way into Egypt's oil sector, and each bid raises the price of getting in. [30]

Harworth, a British company that turns old industrial land into homes and warehouses, told shareholders on Friday to accept a final offer of 187 pence a share from Peel Holdings. [29] The board had rejected earlier offers, starting at 172.5 pence in August, and said a week ago that 177.5 pence undervalued the company. [29] The final offer values Harworth at about 631.7 million pounds, 30% above where the shares traded before the bidding began. [21] Peel will own or hold acceptances for about 52% once share purchases settle on 29 September. [29]

Why it matters. Once Peel had bought enough shares to pass half, the board's opinion stopped mattering, and it chose cash now over going it alone. [29]

Shareholders in Pinewood Technologies, a British firm whose software runs car dealerships, voted on Friday to accept a 545 million pound take-private offer from Ridgeview Partners, a US private equity firm. [31] Almost all votes, 99.76%, were in favour. [31] The offer is 4.48 pounds a share in cash, and the deal should complete on 9 October. [31] Pinewood is the latest London-listed technology company bought by a private buyer who thinks it is cheap. [31]

Why it matters. Each such deal takes one more company off the London stock market. [31]

Joe Baratta, the longtime head of private equity at Blackstone, a giant US investment firm, is leaving by the end of the year after 28 years, Bloomberg reported. [32] He joined in 1998 and ran the buyout business for about 13 years before moving to oversee strategy across the unit. [32] That unit now manages roughly $450 billion. [32]

Why it matters. A $450 billion pool of buyout money is getting a new boss in a year when rising rates are hitting borrowed-money deals hardest. [32][42]

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said on Friday that the longer energy prices stay high, the harder it becomes to keep rates on hold. [34] The bank held its rate at 3.75% last week while the US and euro-zone central banks have raised theirs. [33] Two of its deputy governors, Clare Lombardelli and Sarah Breeden, said they are moving closer to backing a rise. [33] Markets now price about a 75% chance of a rise in November, with another fully priced by February. [33] The bank expects British inflation to top 4% early next year. [33]

Why it matters. British borrowers have so far been spared the rise Americans got this month. The odds now say that ends in November. [33]

The pound closed at $1.3216 on Thursday, its lowest since late June, and has fallen 3.17% in a month. [35] The slide began when the US central bank raised rates on 16 September and the Bank of England held the next day. [35] For the first time this cycle the top of the US rate range sits above Britain's rate, wiping out the pound's rate advantage. [35] British bond yields at 5.25% would normally support the pound, but they are rising because of energy inflation and debt worries, not growth. [35] It rose 0.23% on Friday. [2]

Why it matters. A weaker pound raises the price of what Britain imports. The Bank of England is now weighing a rate rise because prices are rising. [35][33]

Lending to companies in the euro zone grew 4.2% in the year to August, the European Central Bank said on Friday, down from 4.4% in July, which had been the fastest since mid-2023. [36] Loans to households grew 3.1%, unchanged and equal to the highest rate since early 2023. [36] The broad measure of money in the economy, called M3, grew 3.5%, as economists expected. [36]

Why it matters. Companies and households are still borrowing more each year, so higher rates have not yet slowed the euro zone's credit. [36]

HelloFresh, the German meal-kit company, cut its forecasts on Friday after its back-to-school marketing brought in fewer new customers than it needed. [37] It now expects third-quarter revenue to fall 11% to 12%, against the 6.8% drop analysts expected. [37] For the full year it sees revenue down 9% to 11%, having earlier guided to a drop at the bottom of a 3% to 6% range. [37] Its profit target fell to 350 to 370 million euros from 375 to 425 million. [37] Shares fell 13% early on; the stock has lost nearly two-thirds of its value this year. [37]

Why it matters. HelloFresh cut its marketing to save money. Fewer new customers signed up, so it is now cutting its revenue forecast instead. [37]

Costco, the US warehouse-club retailer, reported fourth-quarter profit of $6.75 a share on Thursday, above the $6.55 analysts expected, on revenue of $95.7 billion. [10] Sales for the 16-week quarter rose 11.2% to $93.9 billion. [10] Sales at stores open a year or more rose 6.7% once petrol prices and currency moves are stripped out. [10] Profit got a one-off boost of 15 cents a share from tariff refunds, part of which Costco passed back to members as better value. [10] The shares were slightly lower after hours anyway, and Barron's noted the beat was not enough. [10][38]

Why it matters. Costco's results are a reading on ordinary shoppers, and they are still buying. [10]

Brightline, the private passenger railway in Florida, has secured $490 million of new financing in a restructuring deal, and some of its companies will begin bankruptcy proceedings in New Jersey to carry it out, WSJ Pro reported on Friday. [39] Leslie's, a US pool-supplies retailer, is preparing to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy as soon as next week in Houston, with its existing lenders providing about $100 million to keep it running. [39]

Why it matters. Rising rates hit borrowers with floating-rate loans first, a ratings agency said on the same day. [42]

Brazil's government will spend 15 billion reais to buy as much as 150 billion reais, about $28 billion, of overdue consumer debt from banks, Planning Minister Bruno Moretti said on Friday. [40] It will hold an auction in November to buy portfolios of individual debts of up to 10,000 reais each that are two to four and a half years old. [40] The plan is part of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's push to ease the strain on households as he seeks a fourth term. [40]

Why it matters. Banks sell loans nobody was repaying, and Brazil's government becomes the creditor of those households weeks before the vote. [40]

Bitcoin has gained 12% in five days and climbed back above $86,000, its highest since January, leaving it close to erasing its losses for 2026. [41] Funds that hold bitcoin took in $690 million on 21 September alone, after $639 million on 18 September. [41] The rise came despite conditions that usually hurt assets paying no interest: the US central bank's first rise in three years and 10-year bond yields near 5%. [41] Some strategists call it a debasement trade, meaning buying scarce things when trust in government debt weakens. [41]

Why it matters. Money is moving into bitcoin at the moment government bonds are being sold, which is the opposite of how it traded for years. [41]

DBRS Morningstar, a credit-ratings agency, said on Friday that rising rates hit companies borrowing from private credit funds first and hardest, because their loans mostly carry floating rates that reset as rates rise. [42] Project finance, such as new power plants, comes next, as dearer borrowing slows new projects and raises refinancing risk. [42] Large companies are more insulated for now, because most of their debt is fixed-rate and spread over years. [42] The agency said higher yields also come from shrinking central bank holdings, competition for long-term money and more defence spending. [42]

Why it matters. It lands first on companies financed by private funds, whose interest bills reset as rates rise. [42]