Finance, in brief

Australia's central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, meets on Tuesday 29 September and is expected to raise its main interest rate from 4.35% to 4.6%. [1][4]

That would be its fourth rise this year and the highest rate in 15 years. [1]

For decades the bank cut rates whenever Australian house prices fell. This time prices are falling and it is raising them. [1]

House prices are down nearly 4% from their peak. A government tax change on homes bought to rent out has also cut lending to landlords. [1]

More economists now expect a 10% fall, the biggest in three decades. HSBC, a big British bank, says 13% if rates rise twice more. [1]

The bank's governor, Michele Bullock, said on 22 September that unemployment of 4.5% to 5% could help bring prices under control. [2][6]

Unemployment rose to 4.6% in August, the highest since late 2021. Employment still grew by 39,500, all of it in part-time jobs. [3]

Prices are still rising too fast. Underlying inflation, which leaves out the jumpiest prices, is 3.6%, above the bank's 2% to 3% target. [2][3]

Australia burns more diesel per person than any other rich country, so costly fuel pushes its prices up hard. [6]

Lachlan Dynan of Deutsche Bank, a big German bank, says most of this year's growth comes from data centres, government spending and immigration. None of these responds much to interest rates, so housing takes the squeeze. [1]

Traders expect more. They already bet on a rate of 4.85% and see a 70% chance of 5.1%. [1]

Australian shares fell to their lowest since 12 June on 24 September, with the four big banks down about 2%. The Australian dollar hit a seven-week low. [5][3]

Why it matters. Watch what the bank says on Tuesday, not only the rate. Talk of more rises would match the 4.85% traders expect, and a hold would show falling house prices have started to count. [1]

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane out of the Gulf, and end the fighting. [14] Iran had offered a seven-day ceasefire if the US lifted its naval blockade, unfroze Iranian money and ended sanctions on its oil. [15] Oil prices had eased on Friday on hopes of a truce. [10] About 13.5 million barrels a day now get through with US military help, one oil analyst estimates, still below pre-war levels. [15]

Why it matters. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump expects to resume bombing Iran after the US midterm elections in November. [14] The war began on 28 February, and it has pushed up fuel costs in importing countries such as Australia. [14][5]

Three big US reports land this week. [7][8] On Tuesday the Conference Board, a business research group, publishes consumer confidence, which fell to a seven-month low in August. [8] On Wednesday comes the PCE index, a price measure the US central bank follows closely; its core reading was 3.3% a year in July. [7] On Friday the September jobs report is expected to show 100,000 new jobs and 4.2% unemployment. [7] The euro area also reports inflation, and China a survey of its factories. [9]

Why it matters. Traders put the chance of another US rate rise in October at 64%, up from 55% a week earlier. [10] A very strong jobs number would firm up the case for that rise, one fund manager said. [7]

A measure of how wildly US bond prices are expected to swing has jumped, and in the past such jumps came before trouble for company debt. [13] US companies sold about $33 billion of bonds this week, short of the roughly $40 billion that dealers forecast. [13] Some borrowers paid buyers extra, and at least one pulled its sale. [13] The US government's 10-year borrowing rate is now above 5%. [13]

Why it matters. Companies that borrowed at 3% or 4% now face nearly double that when their debt comes due, a fund manager at Federated Hermes said. [13] Strategists expect the weakest-rated companies, and those funded by private lenders, to struggle first. [13]

China and the US agreed a $30 billion arrangement to lower tariffs, the taxes on imports, on both sides, Xinhua, China's state news agency, reported on Saturday. [16] It was one of eight points agreed during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the US, which also started talks on artificial intelligence. [16] Earlier in the week the two governments extended their trade truce to 10 January. [32] Officials also plan to meet in Shenzhen, China, in about two months on AI safety. [31]

Why it matters. Neither side has published which goods the tariff cut covers, so it is not yet clear which companies will pay less. [16] The truce extension was shorter than investors had expected. [32]

Trump moved on Friday to withhold more than $800 million that the US Congress had approved for programmes on immigration, race and education. [17] They include help for refugees, support for businesses owned by racial minorities and conservation abroad. [17] He used a pocket rescission, a rarely used move that goes around Congress. [17] Susan Collins, the Republican senator who chairs the committee that sets spending, called it illegal. [17]

Why it matters. The US Constitution gives Congress the power over spending. [17] Last year the US Supreme Court declined to stop the same move on $4.9 billion of foreign aid while the legal fight went on. [17]

Officials at the US central bank, which raised rates this month for the first time since 2023, hope to slow prices without costing many jobs. [10][12] Their bet is that businesses will raise prices less if they believe the bank is serious. [12] Austan Goolsbee, who runs the bank's Chicago branch, said the only way to close the gap is to cut spending, and with it output and jobs. [12] So far the US economy keeps growing through higher rates, helped by AI investment. [11]

Why it matters. If Goolsbee is right, lower inflation will cost some workers their jobs or hours. [12] Friday's jobs report will show whether US hiring is holding up. [7]

A jury in New Mexico, a US state, found on Friday that Facebook misled users about how it protected their data. [18] It counted more than 43 million breaches of the state's consumer law. [18] The case was about Cambridge Analytica, a political consulting firm that got data from about 87 million profiles through a personality quiz. [18] A judge will set the penalty at a hearing on 1 October, and the state is asking for $5,000 per breach. [18]

Why it matters. At the full rate the penalty would pass $200 billion, and the state says any money won will go to its education fund. [18] Meta, which owns Facebook, says it disagrees and will keep fighting. [18]

Oracle, a US software and cloud company, gave founder Larry Ellison and its two co-chief executives share options valued at $988 million when granted. [19] An option is the right to buy shares later at a price fixed when it is given. It pays only if the shares climb above that level. [19] Oracle's shares closed on Friday at $137, down 53% in a year and far below the set prices of $280 and $308. [19] This week they also fell about 3% after Oracle warned a data-centre developer that power could be delayed. [20]

Why it matters. Oracle says options that pay nothing when shares fall show its pay plan working as meant. [19] Most options held by its staff are also worth nothing for now, and median pay fell to $94,740. [19]

Cattle groups in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma said on Friday that US immigration operations have kept workers away from meat plants and feedlots, where cattle are fattened. [21] Thousands of cattle shipments were delayed, costing millions of dollars. [21] Some plants in the Kansas towns of Dodge City, Liberal and Garden City shut for a time and sent cattle back to the feedlots. [21] The US homeland security department said it was not raiding workplaces. [21]

Why it matters. The groups warn that the disruption could raise meat prices for shoppers. [21] The operations are in states that voted heavily for Trump, and even Republican lawmakers are speaking out. [21]

S&P, one of the firms that grade how safe it is to lend to a government, raised its outlook for the Czech Republic to positive on Friday. [22] That means an upgrade is possible within one to two years; the last one came in August 2011. [22][23] S&P said Czech income per person, counted in dollars, has risen about 40% in five years. [23] It kept the rating itself at AA-. [22]

Why it matters. The Czech government of Prime Minister Andrej Babis plans a third straight year of wider deficits to pay for wages, roads, health and defence. [22] S&P expects deficits to average 3% of the economy through 2029, partly for a 500 billion koruna nuclear power plan. [23]

Moody's raised Montenegro's credit rating one step, to Ba2, and said further rises are likely. [24] It credited reforms tied to the small Balkan country's bid to join the European Union, which have moved faster than expected. [24] Money the EU gives countries preparing to join also steadies its finances. [24] Elections are due in June 2027. [24]

Why it matters. Montenegro still depends heavily on tourism, and in 2025 it bought from abroad far more than it sold, a gap equal to 20.6% of its economy. [24] Moody's said backsliding on reforms could reverse the move. [24]

Moody's cut Botswana's credit rating one step, to Baa2, because lower diamond income and steady budget deficits keep adding to its debt. [25] It expects government debt to reach 41% of a year's economic output by 2027, up from 31% in 2025. [25] Interest will take 5.9% of government revenue by then. [25] Moody's also set the outlook to stable, meaning no further cut is signalled for now. [25]

Why it matters. Diamonds sit at the core of Botswana's public finances, so a weaker diamond market reaches its budget directly. [25] It still holds foreign currency worth about six months of imports. [25]

Moody's kept Fiji's credit rating at B1 with a stable outlook. [26] It expects the Pacific country's deficit to widen to about 6% of its economy in its 2027 budget year, pushing debt towards 84% and then about 90% by 2030. [26] Spending before the February 2027 election and help with energy prices are part of the reason. [26] About two-thirds of Fiji's debt is owed to lenders at home, mostly its national pension fund. [26]

Why it matters. Borrowing mostly from its own savers, and cheaply from development lenders abroad, keeps Fiji's interest bill easier to carry. [26]

Moody's raised StubHub, a website for reselling event tickets, to B2 after it repaid $350 million of debt early since late 2025, and another $100 million after its second quarter. [27] It expects StubHub's debt to fall from 8.5 to 5.7 times a year's earnings by the end of 2026. [27] Moody's also raised AMC Entertainment, the cinema chain, to B3 from Caa2. [28] AMC plans to swap about $3.7 billion of debt for new loans that run longer and could cost about 9% instead of about 11%. [28]

Why it matters. The swap gives AMC about six years before its debts fall due on average, instead of three. [28] More people went to its cinemas: attendance rose 14% in the first half of 2026. [28]

Sales of newly built single-family homes in the US ran at a yearly pace of 684,000 in the latest month. [29] Forecasters had expected 615,000, and the month before was 643,000. [29] The figure counts brand-new houses only; sales of existing homes are reported separately. [29]

Why it matters. Strong home sales add to signs that the US economy is not slowing much despite higher borrowing costs. [11][29] Upbeat US figures have already pushed up bets on another US rate rise. [10]

China's yuan reached its strongest against the US dollar since early 2023 on 22 September. [31] China's central bank had set a stronger daily reference rate, the level trading moves around, for ten sessions in a row. [31] Two days later the yuan slipped after the bank set a weaker reference rate than expected and the dollar rose on bets of higher US rates. [32] The yuan is still up about 4.4% this year. [31]

Why it matters. The yuan's rise had already reflected hopes of better US-China relations, a Chinese brokerage said. [32] Its moves also help steer other Asian currencies. [31]

Japan's Nikkei 225 share index rose 1.23% on Friday, led by chip and AI companies. [20] Investors also bought before Monday's deadline to qualify for mid-year dividends, and bank shares rose 3.23%. [20] Japan's 40-year government borrowing rate climbed to 4.255% that morning, after US rates rose. [33] In Europe, the STOXX 600 index of big European companies gained for the week as oil prices eased. [30]

Why it matters. Energy costs still weighed on German shoppers' mood heading into October. [30] Higher US rates and a stronger dollar are adding to talk of more rate rises from the Bank of Japan. [33]