Day Lila

Monday, 12 October 2026

12 Oct · Finance · In brief

Finance · Monday, 12 October 2026

Finance, in brief

21 stories · 33 sources

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What is moving · 1 of 4

Borrowing getting dearer

High ↑

India's ten-year borrowing rate rose to 7.35%, its highest since 2023. [1] The IFS, a UK research group, says higher borrowing costs add about GBP10bn to Britain's 2029-30 bill. [16] Genting, a Malaysian casino group, pays 5.16% on its short-term loans. [12]

What is moving · 2 of 4

Fuel still dear

High →

US diesel costs 71% more than a year ago. [25] India buys about 90% of its crude oil abroad, so dear oil weighs on the rupee. [2] Slightly cheaper oil on Monday cut traders' bets on a US rate rise this month. [23]

What is moving · 3 of 4

Governments short of money

Building ↑

Britain's finance minister must cover GBP35bn of spending pressures, the IFS says. [15] Ireland, which chairs EU talks, proposed cutting EUR159bn from the EU's next seven-year budget. [26] Thailand's finance minister promised to bring its budget gap below 3% of output. [10]

What is moving · 4 of 4

Money leaving emerging markets

Building →

Foreign funds sold Indian shares for 11 trading days in a row. [3] No company has listed its shares in the United Arab Emirates this year, against three in 2025. [31] Emerging markets lost $60bn of foreign money from April to September, an Indian bank's economist said, citing industry figures. [4]

Part of the day's signals

India's rupee jumps 1%, its biggest rise since April, as its central bank starts selling the state oil firms all their dollars

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India's rupee rose 1% on Monday to 95.76 per US dollar, its biggest rise since April. [1]

Who is involved

Who is involved

Why it matters

Watch India's reserves: ANZ's Dhiraj Nim says traders will now follow them more closely, because the oil firms' dollars come straight out of them. [2]

What's really going on

India's central bank is spending its dollar savings to slow the rupee's fall, and India's own borrowing rate still rose to its highest since 2023. [1][2]

Why it works on people

A 1% jump in one day looks like a turn, but the rupee was near its record low on Friday, and the economists quoted expect it to weaken again. [2]

Who gains

They now get all their dollars from India's central bank instead of competing for them on the open market. [2]

Who pays

Banks are expected to pass on the cost of the new currency rules, making it dearer to protect against a weaker rupee. [2]

Nobody knows yet

How long India can supply the oil firms' dollars from its reserves.

No figure for how many dollars a day the window will use appears in the reports, and reserves fell $31bn in the two weeks to 2 October. [2]

Nobody knows yet

Whether India's central bank will take more steps to defend the rupee.

An economist at IDFC FIRST Bank, an Indian bank, says more measures may be in store, and one at ANZ says the steps only buy time. [2]

Part of a signal

Diesel costing more

Also seen in World, Climate, Food and Money.

The whole signal →

Part of a signal

Borrowing getting dearer

Also seen in Money.

The whole signal →

The short version

That's the story in short.

The whole story has 12 more parts.

or swipe up for the next storyor scroll on for the next story ↓

The whole story, in 12 parts ↓

Part 1 of 12 · Who else is involved

Part 1 of 12 · Who else is involved

Part 2 of 12

On Friday it had closed at 96.73, close to its record low of 96.96 in May, after losing nearly 8% this year. [2]

Part 3 of 12

From Monday the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, supplies all the dollars that India's three state oil companies need each day. [2]

Part 4 of 12

Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum used to buy those dollars on the open market, so their orders no longer add to demand there. [2][3]

Part 5 of 12

The bank also tightened rules on currency contracts: banks must now keep cash with it equal to 20% of the value of some contracts above $2 million. [2]

Part 6 of 12

Bloomberg, a financial news service, called these the bank's strongest steps to support the rupee since 2013. [1]

Part 6 of 12

That year, talk of the US central bank buying fewer bonds pulled money out of countries like India.

Part 7 of 12

Cheaper oil helped: Brent, the world's main oil price, fell 1.6% to $103 a barrel on Monday. [3]

Part 7 of 12

India buys about 90% of its crude oil abroad. [2]

Part 8 of 12

India's ten-year borrowing rate still rose to 7.35%, its highest since November 2023. [1]

Part 9 of 12

Foreign funds sold Indian shares for 11 trading days in a row, taking out 35.69 billion rupees on Friday alone. [3]

Part 10 of 12

Economists say the steps buy time but do not remove the causes: oil near $100 and US borrowing rates at multi-year highs. [2]

Part 10 of 12

Dhiraj Nim of ANZ, an Australian bank, expects the rupee to weaken to 97.50 per dollar within six to twelve months. [2]

Part 11 of 12

The dollars now come out of India's reserves, which fell from $765bn on 18 September to $734bn on 2 October. [2]

Part 12 of 12

Importers may pay more to protect themselves against currency swings, because banks are expected to pass on the new costs. [2]

South Korea's won hits a two-year high

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South Korea's currency, the won, rose as much as 0.8% on Monday to 1,333.30 per US dollar, its strongest in two years. [8][10]

Korean markets had been shut for a three-day weekend. [8] Heavy dollar selling by Korean companies and lower oil prices lifted it, Bloomberg reported. [8][10]

The won has gained 7.4% against the dollar this year. [10] South Korea's main share index, the Kospi, fell 3% the same day. [9][10]

Why it matters

Oil is priced in dollars, so a stronger won means Korean buyers need fewer won for each barrel. Most other Asian currencies also rose on Monday. [8]

Nobody knows yet

Why South Korea's Kospi fell 3% on Monday.

The reports we could read gave the size of the fall, about 3%, and that trading had just resumed after a long weekend, but not a cause. [9][10]

Genting asks its owners for money to repay loans

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Genting, a Malaysian casino and leisure group controlled by billionaire Lim Kok Thay, plans to raise about 1.25 billion ringgit ($306 million) by selling new shares to its existing owners. [13]

This is called a rights issue, and the new shares will be sold at a discount of 25% to 30%. [12]

It will use 800 million ringgit to repay loans, saving about 41.3 million ringgit a year in interest. [12]

Genting sells new shares to its owners and uses most of the money to pay back loans, which cuts its yearly interest bill.

Its shares fell as much as 17% on Monday, the most since 1998. [13] They are down more than 47% this year. [11]

Why it matters

Maybank, a Malaysian bank, said the sale suggests Genting struggled to swap its loans for longer ones, and cut its advice on the shares from buy to sell. [11]

Why it matters

Genting's profit fell to 74 million ringgit in the first half of the year, from 248.1 million a year earlier. [12]

How it works

Why interest is the first bill a borrower pays

How it works

A borrower who misses an interest payment loses its lenders, so when borrowing costs rise, the extra money is taken from everything else first.

How it works · step 1 of 5

A government or company borrows and promises interest on fixed dates

How it works · step 2 of 5

Missing a payment counts as a default, and lenders stop lending

How it works · step 3 of 5

So interest is paid first, whatever else is short

How it works · step 4 of 5

When rates rise, new and renewed loans cost more

How it works · step 5 of 5

The extra money comes from spending cuts, new taxes or new shares sold cheaply

The twist

When interest rates rise, most people never see the interest bill itself. They see a school budget cut, a new tax, or a company asking its owners for more money.

The picture

How much each part of China's government spending grew from 2013 to 2025. Interest grew fastest of all.

Seen the same day

Genting asks its owners for money to repay loans

Genting is selling cheap new shares so it can repay 800 million ringgit of loans and cut its yearly interest bill.

Seen the same day

UK budget 'a work of fiction' without a plan

Higher borrowing costs add about GBP10bn to Britain's 2029-30 bill, so the chancellor must cut spending, raise taxes or borrow more.

Seen the same day

Interest takes a fifth of China's central budget

Interest grew 341% from 2013 to 2025, faster than spending on social security, defence or science.

Seen the same day

Finance chiefs meet in Bangkok without Bessent

Interest already takes more than a tenth of income in developing countries, and campaigners say governments are cutting spending to keep paying.

The catch

Rising prices also raise a government's tax income, so its spare room can shrink less than its interest bill grows: the IFS puts Britain's loss at GBP4bn, not GBP10bn.

The whole

Taxpayers and people who use public services carry a bigger interest bill this year. Pension funds that lend to governments receive that money, and pay it out to retirees later.

The whole

Few people can see both from where they stand.

Who gains

800 million ringgit of their loans will be paid back early from the share sale. [12]

Who pays

They must buy new shares or own a smaller part of a company whose shares fell as much as 17%. [13]

Nobody knows yet

Whether Genting's new shares will all be bought.

Its controlling owners promised to take 45.1% of the issue; underwriting for the rest has not been arranged yet. [12]

UK budget 'a work of fiction' without a plan, IFS warns

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a UK research group on tax and public spending, says John Healey faces GBP35bn of spending pressures. [15]

Healey is Britain's chancellor, its finance minister, and presents his budget on 28 October. [15] Higher prices since the Iran war began shrink what each department's budget can buy. [16]

The IFS says higher borrowing costs add about GBP10bn to the 2029-30 bill. [15][16]

Higher prices also bring in more tax, so the UK government's spare room shrinks by far less than its interest bill grows.

Higher prices also bring in more tax, so it expects his spare room to shrink by only about GBP4bn. [15]

Why it matters

Healey must choose between spending cuts, tax rises or both, the IFS says. [16]

Why it matters

Its director, Helen Miller, said writing in cuts he does not mean to make would turn the budget into 'a work of fiction'. [15]

How it works

UK budget 'a work of fiction' without a plan

Higher borrowing costs add about GBP10bn to Britain's 2029-30 bill, so the chancellor must cut spending, raise taxes or borrow more.

The idea, in story 3: Why interest is the first bill a borrower pays →

Who pays

Higher prices shrink what each department's budget buys, unless the chancellor finds more money. [16]

Nobody knows yet

What Britain's chancellor will cut or tax on 28 October.

The UK Treasury, Britain's finance ministry, declined to comment, and the IFS says he cannot leave plans as they are. [16]

Interest takes a fifth of China's central budget

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Interest on debt will take 19.2% of China's central government budget this year, up from 12% in 2014, according to the Conference Board, a US business research group. [17]

CSIS, a Washington research group, found China's interest spending grew 341% from 2013 to 2025, faster than any other part of the budget. [17]

Over the same years, all spending grew 102%, defence 141%, science 137%, and social security and jobs 207%. [17]

Why it matters

Interest now takes a bigger share of China's budget than the 14% it takes of the US federal budget. [17]

Why it matters

China's growth is on course to miss its target of 4.5% to 5%. [17]

How it works

Interest takes a fifth of China's central budget

Interest grew 341% from 2013 to 2025, faster than spending on social security, defence or science.

The idea, in story 3: Why interest is the first bill a borrower pays →

Finance chiefs meet in Bangkok without Bessent

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which lends to governments in trouble, and the World Bank, which lends to poorer countries, began their yearly meetings in Bangkok on Monday. [19]

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is not going and sent two officials instead, a US official told Reuters. [18]

The IMF says public debt worldwide is at its highest since the Second World War. [18] In developing countries, interest already takes more than 10% of government income on average. [18]

Why it matters

Iolanda Fresnillo of Eurodad, a campaign group on debt, said poorer countries are already cutting spending because their debt payments are rising and because of the IMF's loan conditions. [18]

Why it matters

World Bank President Ajay Banga said growth has held up better than feared, and the Bank is not cutting its forecasts for now. [18]

How it works

Finance chiefs meet in Bangkok without Bessent

Interest already takes more than a tenth of income in developing countries, and campaigners say governments are cutting spending to keep paying.

The idea, in story 3: Why interest is the first bill a borrower pays →

Who pays

Campaigners say governments are cutting spending to keep up rising debt payments. [18]

Nobody knows yet

How much of poorer countries' income goes on debt.

Reuters says interest alone takes more than 10% of government income in developing countries; a Guardian column cites 45% for debt payments in the global south and 70% in low-income countries, and the two count different things. [18][20]

Good news

World Bank President Ajay Banga said world growth has held up better than feared since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bank is not cutting its forecasts for now.

Sixteen central banks raised rates in two months

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Sixteen central banks raised their main interest rates at their September and October meetings, Mint, an Indian business paper, reported. [4]

India's central bank joined them last week, with its first rise in nearly three and a half years. [4]

Oil has climbed from about $70 a barrel to $98-100 in seven months, adding to the pressure on prices. [4]

The World Bank expects world growth to slow to 2.5% this year, from 2.9% in 2025. [4]

Why it matters

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, an Indian bank, says poorer economies are under more pressure to raise rates alongside rich ones, because they rely on foreign money. [4]

Why it matters

When many countries raise rates at once, borrowing gets dearer for governments, companies and families in all of them.

Thailand promises a smaller budget gap

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Thailand's finance minister, Ekniti Nitithanprapas, told CNBC that the country will cut its budget gap below 3% of its yearly output within a few years. [10]

This year's gap is reported at 4.3%. [10] Thailand's public debt was nearly 68% of its output in August, against a legal ceiling of 70%. [10]

He said Thailand's government could raise that ceiling if needed. [10]

Why it matters

He said Thailand's government is watching rising world borrowing costs and will lean on private money for big projects. [10] Thailand is hosting this week's IMF and World Bank meetings. [10]

What's really going on

Across the day, dearer borrowing is landing on budgets: Britain's, China's, Thailand's, poorer countries' and Genting's. [16][17][10][18][12]

Thailand's stock exchange rewrites its trading rules

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The Stock Exchange of Thailand will change its trading rules from 16 November, a filing said. [21]

Short selling, which means selling borrowed shares to profit from a fall, will be allowed only in the most-traded shares, such as the 100 biggest. [21]

Accounts that send many orders but trade little will pay extra fees. [21]

Limits on how far a single share may move will go, and some trading will start two hours earlier, at 8am. [21]

Why it matters

The exchange says it wants steadier prices, more trading and more investor trust. [21] Thailand's market regulator approved the changes after a public consultation. [21]

China buys gold at a record pace

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China's central bank added about 23 tonnes of gold in September, its biggest monthly purchase in almost three years. [22] It has now bought gold for 23 months in a row. [22]

What China spent importing gold. Eight months of this year already beat the whole of last year.

China imported more than 1,000 tonnes worth a record $158.8 billion in the first eight months of 2026, more than in all of 2025. [22]

Gold rose 0.3% on Monday to about $4,206 an ounce. [23]

Why it matters

Julius Baer, a Swiss bank, says China wants to depend less on US government bonds after Western governments froze Russia's reserves in 2022. [22]

Why it matters

Chinese families also buy gold because homes and shares have done badly and bank deposits pay little. [22]

Who gains

Record Chinese buying has helped hold up the price even as interest rates rose. [22]

Nobody knows yet

How much gold China's central bank has really bought.

Julius Baer estimates about 190 tonnes this year to August, including 110 tonnes that were not reported. [22]

Traders now expect no US rate rise this month

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The chance traders give to no change in the US rate at the US central bank's October meeting.

Traders put an 81% chance on the US central bank leaving its interest rate unchanged this month, FedWatch, a tool run by the US exchange CME, shows. [7]

A month ago that chance was 51%. [7] The US central bank raised its rate in September for the first time since 2023. [7]

Traders still see an 86% chance of a rise by December. [23] Kevin Warsh, who chairs the US central bank, has made clear that rising prices are his main focus. [24]

Why it matters

Lower oil since Sunday has taken some of the worry about prices out of the market, an analyst at KCM Trade, a trading firm, said. [23]

Why it matters

The dollar stayed close to its strongest level in 18 months. [7]

US borrowing costs now follow diesel

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Since May, the US ten-year borrowing rate has moved more closely with diesel than with crude oil, for the first time. [25]

Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects, an energy research firm, found the link. [25] US diesel costs about $6.28 a gallon, 71% more than a year ago, while crude is up 56%. [25]

Diesel moves trucks, farm machines and factories, so its price feeds into many other prices. [25]

Why it matters

When fuel pushes up expected prices, lenders expect more rate rises and ask more to lend, so borrowing costs rise for households. [25]

Why it matters

Trump's pause on the federal diesel tax saves 24 cents a gallon, while the price is $2.60 higher than a year ago. [25]

Ireland proposes cutting the EU's next budget by EUR159bn

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Ireland, which chairs the meetings of the EU's national governments this half-year, proposed cutting EUR159 billion from the EU's next seven-year budget, for 2028 to 2034. [26]

That is about 8% of the European Commission's plan of almost EUR2 trillion. [26]

Where the biggest of Ireland's proposed cuts fall. The emergency-fund figure is a minimum.

It takes EUR75 billion from competitiveness, EUR38 billion from foreign aid and at least EUR22 billion from emergency funds. [26] Payments to farmers and to regions were left alone. [26]

Why it matters

The Commission, the EU's executive, warned on Sunday that Europe would have no money left to help farmers and regions when a crisis hits. [26]

Why it matters

EU leaders meet on Thursday and Friday, and a German-led group of countries wants far deeper cuts. [26]

Pakistan's businesses fight extra power charges

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Pakistan's main business group, the FPCCI, asked the power regulator, Nepra, to reject 268 billion rupees of extra charges on consumers. [27]

Ten power distribution companies, once part of the state utility Wapda, want to recover costs from past years through their 2027 prices. [27]

Together they claim 2.64 trillion rupees of income for 2027. [27] The FPCCI says many of the claims were disputed, or already refused by Nepra. [27]

Why it matters

If Nepra approves them, the charges would be added to electricity bills for homes and factories. [27]

Why it matters

One company's claims for past costs came to more than twice its yearly margin, the FPCCI says. [27]

Who pays

Power companies want to add 268 billion rupees of past costs to bills. [27]

Zetwerk sets the price for its first share sale

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Zetwerk, a Bengaluru company that makes industrial and consumer goods for clients worldwide, set a price range of 143 to 151 rupees a share for its stock market debut. [28]

It hopes to raise 50.1 billion rupees, about $520 million, which would value it at 255.8 billion rupees. [28]

Bidding opens on 15 October, and its shares are expected to start trading on 23 October. [28]

Why it matters

Early backers, including the venture firms Peak XV, Accel and Lightspeed, are selling part of their stakes in the sale. [28]

Why it matters

Up to 75% of the shares are set aside for big institutions and 10% for small investors. [28]

Indian lender Poonawalla's profit jumps five-fold

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Poonawalla Fincorp, an Indian lender that is not a bank, said its profit rose 407% to 3.75 billion rupees in July to September. [29][3]

The interest it earned rose 72%, faster than the 62% rise in the interest it paid. [29] The share of its loans that have gone bad fell over the quarter. [29]

Its shares rose more than 7% on Monday. [29]

Why it matters

Its income from lending, after paying its own interest, rose 81% to 13.8 billion rupees. [29] The firm also widened its gold loans to 550 branches. [29]

Ola Electric sells new shares to its owners

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Ola Electric, an Indian maker of electric scooters, will sell new shares worth about 10 billion rupees to its existing owners at 27 rupees each. [14]

Owners get two new shares for every 25 they hold on 13 October. [14] The offer opens on 22 October and closes on 30 October. [14]

The shares are partly paid, so buyers pay some of the price now and the rest later. [14]

Why it matters

The number of shares will rise from about 4.63 billion to about 5 billion if the offer is fully taken up. [14]

Why it matters

Owners who do not buy will hold a smaller part of the company.

Wheat and corn fall for a fourth day

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Wheat and corn prices in Chicago, the main world market for grain, fell for a fourth day on Monday. [30] Wheat dropped 0.86% to $6.65 a bushel. [30]

Good weather in the US Midwest raised hopes that farmers can catch up on a harvest slowed by rain. [30]

The US farm department has raised its estimate of grain left over at the end of the season. [30]

Why it matters

China cut its forecast for its own soybean crop by 590,000 tonnes, to 20.36 million tonnes. [30] Brazil, the biggest soybean grower, is planting at its fastest pace ever. [30]

No company has listed in the UAE this year

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No company has sold shares to the public in the United Arab Emirates this year, after three listings raised $1.1 billion in 2025, according to Dealogic, which tracks deals. [31]

The Iran war that began on 28 February has stalled new listings. [31] Dan Simkowitz, co-president of the US bank Morgan Stanley, expects listings to return once the conflict settles. [31]

Gulf debt markets held $1.2 trillion of bonds and loans at the end of June. [31]

Why it matters

The World Bank expects Gulf economies to shrink 4.3% this year. [31] Simkowitz said the war adds a risk cost for the region that he hopes is temporary. [31]

The US share rally turns four

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The S&P 500, an index of 500 big US companies, has risen 118% since its low on 12 October 2022. [32]

It ended last week near 7,811, up 1.2% for the week. [32] The US ten-year borrowing rate is now about 5.2%. [32]

Since 1950, rallies that reached four years went on to gain about 19% on average in their fifth year, Carson Investment Research, a US investment firm, says. [32]

Why it matters

Jordan Rizzuto of GammaRoad Capital, an investment firm, says pension funds may move money from shares to bonds that now pay similar returns with smaller swings. [32]

Why it matters

Higher rates also mean companies spend more on interest and keep less as profit. [32]

Who gains

The ten-year rate of about 5.2% now pays bond buyers returns that compete with shares. [32]

Good news

The S&P 500, an index of 500 big US companies, has more than doubled in four years, rising 118% since its low on 12 October 2022.

Codelco races to rescue two workers

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Codelco, Chile's state-owned copper company, was trying on Sunday to rescue two workers caught in a mudslide at El Teniente, its giant mine. [33]

A third worker was rescued and taken for medical care. [33] Six people died in an accident at the same mine last year. [33]

Another fatal accident hit a different Codelco mine less than two weeks ago. [33]

Why it matters

Codelco said severe weather in central Chile set off the slide in an open-pit part of the mine. [33]

Why it matters

Chile mines more copper than any other country, and copper goes into power cables and electronics.

Good news

At Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile, rescuers brought out one of three workers caught in a mudslide and took the worker for medical care. They found the other two.

That's the whole Finance day.

21 stories, 33 sources.