Finance, in brief

JPMorgan Chase, the biggest US bank, earned $15.3 billion in July to September, up from $14.4 billion a year earlier. [1][2]

That was still less than analysts expected: $5.57 a share against about $5.92, its first miss in nearly three years. [1][2]

Its income from trading bonds and other kinds of debt fell 4% from a year earlier, to $5.4 billion, though its trading income as a whole rose 15%. [1][2]

JPMorgan also lost $658 million on its own investments, and its costs rose 12%. [1][2]

Its fees for arranging deals rose 14% to $3 billion, mostly from advising companies on deals. [2]

Its boss, Jamie Dimon, said big government deficits, sticky prices and rising interest rates 'continue to shift under the surface'. [1][2]

Dimon also said people should prepare for the 10-year US government borrowing rate to reach 6%, though he is not predicting it. [7]

Goldman Sachs, a big Wall Street investment bank, earned $5.29 billion, up from $4.1 billion, as its income from trading shares jumped 72%. [1]

Goldman's trading in bonds, currencies and commodities earned 24% less than in the quarter before. [1]

Citigroup's profit rose 40% from a year earlier, beating forecasts, with more income from deals and from managing rich clients' money. [1]

Wells Fargo earned $5.95 billion, beating profit forecasts, though its revenue fell short. [1][3] Its profits have climbed since regulators lifted a cap on its size set after a sales scandal. [1]

Bank shares still fell on Tuesday: Citigroup lost 5.6%, Wells Fargo 3.1% and JPMorgan 0.9%. [3]

Why it matters. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on Wednesday, and the next test is whether their bond traders also earned less while share trading rose. [5][6]

China's exports rose 36.3% in September from a year earlier, the fastest since February, official figures showed on Wednesday. [10] Imports rose 31%. [10] That left a trade surplus, exports minus imports, of $133.5 billion, a record for one month, said an economist at Guotai Junan, a Chinese broker. [10] Demand for parts for AI data centres helped drive it. [10] By CNBC's count, the value of circuit boards sold abroad rose 136%, while the number sold rose only 1%. [10]

Why it matters. Europe is pushing back: the EU and China agreed in a first deal on Friday to cap Chinese hybrid car imports at 350,000 a year. [11] Goldman Sachs says Chinese firms often earn more abroad than at home, which lets them undercut local rivals. [12]

Prices charged by China's factories rose 5% in September from a year earlier, the fastest in more than four years. [13] Economists had expected 4.5%. [13] Dearer fuel pushed up costs, and China's statistics bureau said coal prices rose too. [13] Shop prices rose only 0.9%, just below the 1% expected, as food prices fell 1.7%. [13] China's economy grew 4.3% in April to June, its slowest in more than three years. [13]

Why it matters. An economist at Guotai Junan said the falling prices China saw in 2024 and 2025 are fading. [13] The weak shop prices show its own shoppers are still spending little, an economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said. [13]

The US Treasury fined Bank of America, the second-biggest US bank, more than $1.2 billion on Tuesday. [14] It said the bank failed for years to report over $5 billion of suspicious payments, some linked to Chinese money-laundering networks. [14][15] The bank admitted it wilfully broke the Bank Secrecy Act, the US law that makes banks report such payments. [14] The $750 million share from the Comptroller of the Currency, a banking watchdog, is the largest it has ever imposed. [15]

Why it matters. The fine cuts about 17 cents from each share's profit in results due on Wednesday. [15] The US Treasury said the bank had left police and other banks to spot crimes for it. [15]

Bank of America has lost several senior dealmakers over the past year, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. [16] One of its most senior women bankers, Amy Lissauer, was weighing a move to JPMorgan, and the bank's boss, Brian Moynihan, failed to keep her. [16] Three departures were announced in a single week in August. [16] Executives then reached out to staff to promise big ambitions and more hiring. [16]

Why it matters. Its investment bank has slipped a place in the rankings of banks by deals handled. [16] Moynihan warned in September that its fees from deals would fall more than 10% this quarter. [4]

JPMorgan will not let outside AI agents, programs that act for a person online, log in to customers' accounts, Jamie Dimon said on Tuesday. [17] He warned of 'rogue agents', possibly thousands of them. [17] The bank is testing its own tool, Smart Cash, which forecasts a customer's cash and moves it to earn more interest. [17] It fought a similar fight with apps like Plaid over customer data, and began charging them for access. [17]

Why it matters. Tech firms including Meta are releasing assistants that can act on their own. [17] Dimon said customers who use outside agents must understand the risks, including who is responsible if something goes wrong. [17]

The IMF, which lends to countries in trouble, warned on Tuesday that government borrowing rates could rise in a 'disorderly' way. [18][20] Its Global Financial Stability Report blamed dear energy, expected rate rises and the extra return lenders now demand for long loans. [18] It said heavy AI borrowing competes with governments for the same lenders. [18] It also named a sharp fall in AI shares, and cyber attacks, as risks to the financial system. [19]

Why it matters. A jump in rates would cut the value of government bonds that banks and funds hand over as security in other deals, the IMF said. [18] Its staff said cyber attacks are a bigger danger in poorer markets that spend little on defence. [19]

Many low-income countries have 'no choice' but to cut spending, Petya Koeva Brooks, a senior IMF researcher, told AFP in Bangkok on Tuesday. [21] The hardest hit buy their oil abroad and have no part in the AI building boom, the IMF says. [21] In some African countries, debt payments now take 30% to 50% of tax income. [22] African finance ministers want faster debt deals and an end to extra charges on IMF loans. [22]

Why it matters. Where a debt cannot be paid, an early, orderly restructuring costs less than waiting, Koeva Brooks said. [21] That leaves less money for hospitals, roads and schools, Africanews reported. [22]

BlackRock, the world's biggest fund manager with $15.3 trillion to invest, now favours US government bonds over US shares. [23] It had held fewer of those bonds than usual for most of six years. [23] The 10-year US rate has risen about 1.1 points this year to 5.25%, and BlackRock said it wants to 'lock in' that income. [23] It cut US shares to neutral, partly to take profits. [23]

Why it matters. BlackRock also said traders expecting 1.6 more points of US rate rises within a year have gone too far. [23] That is why it prefers short bonds, which gain most if those rises do not come. [23]

The 10-year US government borrowing rate fell to about 5.19% on Tuesday as oil prices eased. [24] That rate guides the cost of many US mortgages and car loans. [24] Traders were waiting for September's US price figures, due on Wednesday. [25] Economists polled by Dow Jones expect prices 3.6% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. [25] Gold held near $4,159 an ounce on Wednesday. [26]

Why it matters. A figure above forecasts would make it harder for the US central bank to treat dear oil as a one-off, an economist at PGIM said. [25]

John Williams heads the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. [27] He said on Tuesday he sees one more rate rise this year and no need for more in 2027. [27] Traders put about 90% odds on rates ending 2027 at least half a point higher. [27] Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, said rising bond rates reflect stronger growth, not fear of inflation. [28] Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago branch warned this week that AI-driven price rises are spreading. [29]

Why it matters. The US central bank meets at the end of October. [27] Its chair, Kevin Warsh, gives his last speech before that meeting on Thursday. [28]

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, rose 1.2% to about $107 a barrel on Wednesday. [30] Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, a Yemeni armed group backed by Iran, kept worries about supply high. [30] On Tuesday the price had slipped below $106 as traders took profits. [31] Oil is up more than 70% this year. [31] Paul Tudor Jones, a well-known trader, said it could rise another $20 to $25. [32]

Why it matters. Dearer oil could push the US price figures due on Wednesday higher still, an economist at RSM said. [25]

A US fund that holds chip-maker shares fell for a sixth day in a row on Tuesday. [5] Micron, which makes memory chips, fell 3.6% by the close after a Chinese rival, CXMT, showed a new memory design. [3][34] The S&P 500 and Nasdaq share indexes fell for a second day, the Nasdaq by 0.2%. [5][3] Analysts expect chip makers' profits to rise 130% from a year earlier, against about 30% for all big US companies. [5]

Why it matters. The fall has spread from Seoul and Tokyo to New York. [33] A fund strategist in Sydney said swinging bond prices, not chips alone, are now driving share prices. [33]

Anthropic, an AI company, was due to show possible investors its July-to-September results for the first time on Wednesday, ahead of a planned share sale. [36] The listing could value it at $2 trillion, people familiar with the plans told CNBC. [36] Last week a lower-than-reported OpenAI revenue figure pulled chip shares down. [36] The investor Paul Tudor Jones says 2027 will be very hard for US shares as such sales add supply. [35]

Why it matters. For years companies buying back their own shares cut the supply of stock. [35] Jones expects big AI listings and new share sales to reverse that, as in 1998 to 2002. [35]

Volta, an AI data-centre company founded in February, is borrowing $5 billion for a site in Norway, Semafor reported. [37] Some lenders pushed back, saying they already hold too much data-centre debt. [37] The loan is expected to pay at least 11%, unusually high for such a project, with Apollo, a big investment firm, taking $1.5 billion. [37] The rate falls if Anthropic, which will buy much of the site's computing, wins an investment-grade rating, the mark of a safe borrower. [37]

Why it matters. About $450 billion of AI-related loans and bonds have been sold this year. [37] Deals still get done, bankers say, but at higher rates and on tougher terms than earlier in the year. [37]

Character.AI, an app that lets people chat with AI characters, filed for bankruptcy protection in Delaware on Monday. [38] Court papers show it owes its 20 biggest unsecured creditors more than $10.6 million, including over $4 million to Google. [38] Five big law firms are owed $2.6 million between them. [38] It plans a court-run sale of the company by the end of the year. [38]

Why it matters. Its founders came from Google, and it faced lawsuits saying its chatbots harmed young users. [38] It agreed to settle several of those suits earlier this year. [38]

UnitedHealth Group, one of the biggest US health insurers, raised its forecast for 2026 profit to at least $20.50 a share on Tuesday. [39] It earned $4.69 a share in July to September, against $4.14 expected. [39] It paid out 88.4% of its premiums on medical care, better than analysts expected. [39] Its shares rose 2.8% before trading opened. [39]

Why it matters. UnitedHealth has spent two years recovering from a huge cyber attack, missed targets and the killing of a senior boss. [39]

Johnson & Johnson, a US maker of medicines and medical devices, earned $2.59 a share in July to September, a little above forecasts. [40] Sales of its medicines rose 7.7%, but medical devices grew only 2.5%. [40] Its finance chief, Joe Wolk, said Gulf states such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are moving money to defence. [40] Spending cuts in Europe and pressure on prices in China also weighed. [40] Its shares fell 5.7%, the worst in the Dow index of 30 big US companies. [3]

Why it matters. Wolk said the war has not yet raised J&J's own costs, but it has hurt its sales in the Gulf. [40]

Albertsons, which runs Safeway and 21 other US grocery chains, withdrew its financial forecasts on Tuesday until a review of the business is done. [41] Its sales slipped to $18.9 billion, with sales at existing stores down 0.8%, the second fall in a row. [41] Meg Whitman, the former eBay boss who joined as executive chair last month, said 'everything should be on the table'. [41]

Why it matters. Its shoppers are switching to cheaper store brands, or to Walmart and Kroger, as food and petrol cost more. [41] One retail analyst called its prices far higher than rivals'. [41]

The London Stock Exchange Group, which also sells financial data, confirmed on Tuesday it is in talks to buy Octus for about $3.5 billion. [42] Octus reports on companies in financial trouble for banks and investors. [42] Its owner, the private equity firm Permira, bought control in 2022 at a $1.3 billion value. [42] LSEG's shares fell 4.7%. [42]

Why it matters. LSEG is under pressure to do better from Elliott, an activist investor that disclosed a stake in February. [42] Reuters, which reported the talks first, counts LSEG as its biggest customer. [42]

Bumble, a loss-making dating app, agreed on Tuesday to be bought for $1.3 billion by Ithaca Holdings, an investment firm. [43] Its shares jumped 56.6% on the day. [3] Ithaca's directors, Ravi Gupta and John Hegeman, will run it, and its founder, Whitney Wolfe Herd, says she will stay involved. [43] Bumble was worth more than $14 billion after it listed in 2021. [43]

Why it matters. Younger users have cooled on dating apps, and Bumble has made a yearly profit only once since listing. [43] Tinder's owner, Match Group, has also seen its shares fall far from their 2021 peak. [43]

Visa, the US card company, won approval from China's central bank to prepare a business clearing card payments inside China. [44] It has a year to finish that work and then must apply to start, China's Xinhua news agency said. [45] Visa first applied in May 2020. [44] Its rival Mastercard began processing payments in China in 2024 through a joint venture. [44]

Why it matters. Until now China's own UnionPay has handled payments inside China on cards that carry Visa's name. [44] An analyst said the timing, before an expected Xi-Trump meeting next month, looks like a goodwill gesture. [45]

Shares in Six Flags, a US theme-park company, fell more than 14% on Tuesday after a rider died on a roller coaster. [46] The death happened on Monday on the Goliath ride at Six Flags Over Georgia, near Atlanta, and several people were hurt. [46] The company closed Goliath and nine similar rides at its parks. [46] Its shares are at their lowest since December 2009. [46]

Why it matters. They had already fallen by more than half over the past year. [46]

Singapore's economy grew 5.4% in July to September from a year earlier, beating the 5% economists expected. [47] Building work, including data centres, grew 8.8%. [48] Its central bank left its policy unchanged after tightening twice this year. [47] It steers the economy through the Singapore dollar's exchange rate rather than an interest rate. [47] Singapore's government expects 4.5% to 5.5% growth this year. [47]

Why it matters. Singapore's central bank expects AI-driven growth to slow in the second half of 2027. [48] Singapore makes about a tenth of the world's chips, so it gains when AI spending rises. [48]

The Philippine central bank now plans for two kinds of El Nino, a Pacific weather pattern that can bring drought, including a 'Godzilla' one, its governor said. [49] Prices there rose 7.2% in September from a year earlier, with rice up 18%. [49] The Philippines is the world's biggest rice importer. [49] The bank raised its main rate to 5% in August, and HSBC expects another rise next week. [49]

Why it matters. Bigger Philippine rice purchases could push up a world rice price that the UN's food agency has raised six months in a row. [49]

The Hong Kong dollar is close to HK$7.85 to the US dollar, the weak end of the range Hong Kong allows. [50] To defend it, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority buys Hong Kong dollars, which drains the cash banks keep for paying each other. [50] That cash has fallen to HK$54 billion, a level crossed only once before, in 2023. [50] Higher US rates are pulling money toward the US dollar. [50]

Why it matters. Strategists warn that even a small defence could make Hong Kong's borrowing costs jump. [50] The authority has told people to watch interest-rate risk on homes, investments and loans. [50]

Chile's seven private pension funds, which hold about $229 billion, are unwinding bets that US interest rates would keep falling. [51] Instead US rates rose, and the bets swung from a $1.4 billion gain a year ago to a $7.7 billion loss by September, Chile's pension regulator said. [51] New rules from 4 November force the funds to cut them. [51] Their safest funds have lost 10.4% this year. [51]

Why it matters. These funds hold the only retirement savings most Chileans have. [51] To get out, they must pay Bank of America, Citigroup and other banks on the other side of the trades. [51]

India's Nifty 50 share index rose 1.6% on Tuesday, its biggest gain in more than two months, and the Sensex rose 1.5%. [52] Technology shares led after strong results from HCL Technologies, whose shares jumped 8.4%. [53] The finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, said India's government would hear investors' views on taxes on share profits and share trades. [52] She signalled no change. [52]

Why it matters. Foreign investors have pulled $32 billion from Indian shares this year, so even a hint of tax relief lifted the mood. [54] They still sold on Tuesday, for a 13th trading day in a row. [65]

Jio Platforms, the phone and digital arm of Reliance Industries, has drawn more than $20 billion in bids for what could be India's biggest share sale, Bloomberg reported. [55][54] It is aiming for a value of up to $108 billion, below earlier talk of $170 billion. [55] Fidelity, Allianz and Capital Group are among the interested funds. [55] All the money raised goes to the company, as no existing owner is selling. [55]

Why it matters. Blackstone's president called India the easiest place to get a share sale done this year. [54]