Finance, in brief

The yearly meetings of the IMF and the World Bank ended in Bangkok on Saturday, after a week that drew more than 18,000 people. [1]

The IMF lends to countries in trouble, and its steering committee, the IMFC, agreed a statement backed by every member, said its chair, Saudi finance minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan. [1]

Russia's war in Ukraine had stopped the committee agreeing such statements in the years since 2022. [1]

The statement warned that wars and trade fights could close trade routes and push up the price of refined fuels such as diesel. [1][4]

The IMF says governments' help with energy bills since the Iran war began has cost 0.5% of the world's whole yearly output. [3]

Many countries cannot keep paying that much, the IMF said, and some have already started to cut the help, so people pay more for fuel and power themselves. [3]

It told governments to give short help aimed at those who need it, instead of cutting prices for everyone. [3]

Government debt in rich countries is forecast to rise from 108% of a year's output last year to 115% in five years, the IMF says. [3]

Poorer countries now spend 8% to 14% of their revenue on debt payments, said Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's head. [4]

Nearly half the delegates walked out when Russia's finance minister, Anton Siluanov, began to speak, said Joachim Nagel, head of Germany's central bank. [1]

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, was among them, with officials from France, Germany, the Nordic and Baltic countries. [2][1]

A US Treasury official, Erin Browne, said the US supports Russia's presence at such meetings. [1]

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not travel, and a meeting of G20 finance ministers, chaired instead by the UK's John Healey, issued no joint statement. [3]

Why it matters. The next test is France's budget vote on Tuesday, where a government paying the most to borrow in about 24 years asks parliament for a smaller deficit. [24]

SoftBank, the Japanese group that invests in AI and robots, is in early talks to buy Allied Universal, the biggest US security-guard company, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday. [9] The deal could value Allied at about $18 billion, not counting its debts. [9][10] With its roughly $12 billion of bonds, the total could come close to $30 billion, Bloomberg reported. [11] Allied is backed by Warburg Pincus, a private-equity firm, and La Caisse, a Canadian pension fund. [9] Its sales are about $23 billion a year. [9]

Why it matters. Allied provides guards for offices, events and New York's subway, and SoftBank would aim to replace some of them with robots over time. [10][11] Nothing is agreed, and SoftBank declined to comment. [10]

Venezuela expects nearly $76 billion of oil investment over the next five years under new agreements, acting President Delcy Rodriguez said on Saturday. [12] A deal with the US covers 17 oilfields and plans for 250 drilling rigs, part of 61 agreements in all. [12][13] Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves but pumps far less than a decade ago, after years of too little investment and US sanctions. [12] It began reopening its oil industry to foreign firms after President Nicolas Maduro was removed in January. [12]

Why it matters. More Venezuelan oil would add to world supply while the Iran war keeps fuel dear. [3] Rodriguez said output in Zulia state rose from 70,000 to 370,000 barrels a day, but did not say over what period. [12]

A basket of Asian companies that make parts for AI computers, tracked by Goldman Sachs, a US bank, fell 11% last week, its steepest drop since mid-July. [8] Samsung Electro-Mechanics, a South Korean maker of electronic parts, fell 23%, and Taiwan's Unimicron fell 14%. [8] South Korea's main share index, the Kospi, lost 14.5% in the week, its worst since October 2008. [3] Investors fear the companies building AI data centres will find it harder to borrow the money they need. [8]

Why it matters. These firms are paid only while US tech companies keep building data centres. [8] Even a delay in that building would cut what investors expect them to earn, said a fund manager at GAM, a Swiss investment firm. [8]

South Korea's finance minister, Lee Hyoung-il, said on Saturday that the boom in computer chips will last at least through 2027, because demand still far outruns supply. [7] He spoke in Bangkok after chip shares fell hard during the week. [7] Lee said chips are a bigger part of South Korea's economy than of other countries', which is why its share market swings so much. [7] He expects South Korea's government to collect more tax than planned this year. [7] South Korea's central bank meets on Thursday and is expected to keep its main rate at 3.0%. [31]

Why it matters. Not everyone agrees: a column in Maeil Business Newspaper, a big Korean paper, warned that new supply could flood the memory-chip market by 2029. [7]

Jack Clark, a co-founder of Anthropic, the AI company that makes Claude, told the IMF meetings on Saturday that AI is improving fast. [6] One of the company's own models estimates that, if the technology keeps getting better, US output could reach $44 trillion a year by 2030. [6] It is just over $30 trillion now, so that would be a rise of almost 50%, and Clark said it 'sounds very outlandish'. [6] He asked governments to agree strict rules, above all for biology research. [6] Anthropic is expected to sell its shares to the public in November. [6]

Why it matters. The estimate is the company's own and rests on its own assumptions. [6] At the same meetings the IMF's head warned that hopes for AI may run ahead of the real gains in output. [3]

Sarah Breeden, a deputy governor of the Bank of England, said hedge funds have become big buyers of government debt, so a shock in one bond market is more likely to spread to others. [5] Pension funds and insurers used to be the main buyers, and hedge funds borrow heavily and move fast, she said. [5] The IMF says hedge funds hold about $13 trillion of assets. [5] They held a record 7% of US government debt at the end of 2025, by US official figures. [5]

Why it matters. The IMF warned this week that hedge funds' borrowed bets and crowded trades could make a market panic worse. [5] Ten-year and 30-year US borrowing costs touched their highest since 2002 this month. [5]

HDFC Bank, India's largest private-sector lender, said on Saturday its profit rose 4.7% to 195.1 billion rupees, about $2.05 billion, for July to September. [14][15] That narrowly missed forecasts, because its gains from trading bonds fell to 7.8 billion rupees from 23.9 billion a year earlier. [14] Its loans grew 16.3% and its deposits 18.8%. [14] Kaizad Bharucha, a deputy managing director, will leave in December. [14] Anup Bagchi, from the rival ICICI group, becomes the bank's first outside chief executive on 27 October. [14]

Why it matters. Bond trading went worse still at ICICI, which made a loss on it as Indian bond rates rose. [18] Bagchi starts while investors look hard at how HDFC is run and how much it earns. [14]

ICICI Bank, one of India's biggest private lenders, said profit rose 20% to 148.4 billion rupees in July to September, beating forecasts. [16][19] Its loans grew 30% in a year. [19] Bad loans fell to 1.20% of all loans, from 1.58% a year earlier. [16] But the gap it earns between what borrowers pay and what savers get narrowed to 4.18%, from 4.36% the quarter before, and it expects more pressure next quarter. [16][17] Its bond trading made a loss as Indian bond rates rose. [18] Axis Bank, another big private lender, said profit jumped 38% to 70 billion rupees. [20]

Why it matters. ICICI expects its lending gap to narrow again next quarter, partly because of the cost of new branches. [17] Better loan quality helped Axis's profit too. [20]

Berkshire Hathaway, the company Warren Buffett built, put a further $330 million into Bending Spoons, an Italian firm that buys old internet companies. [21][22] It bought new shares at $33, almost 12% below the market price, and Bending Spoons' shares jumped 41% that day. [22] Berkshire has now put about $930 million into the firm. [22] It bought Airtable for about $1.3 billion, almost 90% below its 2021 value, and much of its staff are leaving. [21] It also agreed last month to buy Miro, once valued at $17.5 billion, for $1.36 billion. [21]

Why it matters. Many software start-ups lost value as AI tools began doing their work, and their investors want out with few buyers around, a former software boss told CNBC. [21] Bending Spoons says it keeps what it buys, unlike buyout firms that sell companies on. [21]

Berkshire Hathaway's shares closed on Friday at their highest since May 2025, when Warren Buffett said he would step down as chief executive. [22] Its A shares ended at $798,000, 1.4% below their record. [22] Berkshire holds about $360 billion in cash, and higher short-term interest rates pay it more on that money, an analyst at the bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said. [22] Chevron, an oil company, and Coca-Cola, two of its biggest holdings, both closed at record highs. [22]

Why it matters. Greg Abel, who replaced Buffett as chief executive, has started to spend the cash, with $4.5 billion of buybacks of Berkshire's own shares in the second quarter. [22] CNBC said Berkshire may also be helped by investors moving from tech shares to older companies. [22]

Big investors are buying about a million acres of US forest a year, Bank of America says. [23] Timber managers bought 55% of the land that changed hands in 2025 and sold only 15%. [23] They buy for pension funds and university endowments that can hold land for decades. [23] What buyers pay South Carolina landowners for standing pine pulpwood fell about 33% in a year, to $3.79 a ton. [23] An index of private US forests returned 0.95% in the second quarter. [23]

Why it matters. Pine grown for house building takes about 25 years, so the bet suits owners who will not need the money for a long time. [23] One South Carolina owner with 2,500 acres says he has cut back because timber pays so little now. [23]

France's government faces the first big vote on its 2027 budget in the National Assembly, the lower house of its parliament, on Tuesday. [24] Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's plan would cut the deficit, the gap between spending and tax, to 5% of the economy from 5.4%. [24] France's public debt is a record $4 trillion, 119% of a year's output, the highest since just after the Second World War. [24] What France pays to borrow is at its highest in about 24 years. [24][25]

Why it matters. If the budget fails, the cost of France's debt could rise sharply, warned Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group, a firm that advises on political risk. [24] The vote comes days after protests over the cost of living turned to riots in several French cities. [24]

Voters in Alberta, the Canadian province with most of Canada's oil, decide on Monday whether to start the legal process towards a vote on leaving Canada. [26][27] It is not a vote to leave. [26] Alberta has the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves and sends 90% of its crude exports to the US. [26] About 23% backed starting the process in a recent poll, and Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote, wants to stay. [26] Prime Minister Mark Carney called a vote against Canada 'a dangerous bluff'. [27]

Why it matters. Carney wants to sell Alberta's oil to new buyers through a pipeline to Canada's west coast, so Canada depends less on the US. [26][27]

Conde Nast's UK arm, which publishes Vogue, GQ and Tatler, saw profit before one-off items fall 36% last year, to nearly 18 million pounds, its newly filed accounts show. [28] Its UK revenue fell 7% to 70.6 million pounds. [28] The figures came days after the Newhouse family, which owns the group, ruled out selling it. [28] Its former boss had called Google's AI summaries 'another sort of death blow' for websites that rely on readers clicking through. [28]

Why it matters. Advertising and other services bring in about 86% of the group's revenue. [28] Google search brought only about a quarter of visits to its websites last year, its former boss said. [28]

Rolls-Royce, the luxury car maker owned by Germany's BMW, says its average car now sells for about 500,000 pounds, up from about 300,000 a decade ago. [29] Most of the rise comes from buyers paying for custom work, such as an inside lined with 3,000 feathers. [29] Its average buyer is now 43, down from 56 in 2010, often rich from technology or crypto. [29] BMW is spending 300 million pounds to nearly double the factory at Goodwood, in southern England. [29]

Why it matters. Factories make about 9% of the UK economy, and they helped it grow unexpectedly in August. [29]

Elon Musk and America PAC, the political group he set up to back Donald Trump, agreed to settle two lawsuits over his 2024 election giveaway, filings in a US federal court in Austin show. [30] Arizona residents said Musk misled voters in seven swing states by promising $1 million a day to people who signed his petition. [30] The terms were not filed, and the deals still need a judge's approval. [30] Musk and America PAC denied wrongdoing. [30]

Why it matters. A judge had said in June that Musk must give evidence in the cases. [30] The filings did not say how much, if anything, will be paid. [30]

China reports its economic growth for July to September on Monday. [31] Economists surveyed by Nikkei, a Japanese newspaper group, expect 4.4%, only a little faster than 4.3% in the three months before. [31] China's goal for the year is 4.5% to 5%. [31] China's exports rose 36% in September from a year earlier, but a long slump in housing and weak shopping at home still hold growth back. [31]

Why it matters. Strong exports have taken pressure off China's government to spend more to lift buying at home. [31] China's central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, speaks at a finance forum in Beijing the same week. [31]

Mynt, the company behind GCash, the Philippines' leading digital wallet, is due to list its shares on the Philippine Stock Exchange on Tuesday. [31] A digital wallet is an app for paying and sending money by phone. Mynt set its price at 6.60 pesos a share, valuing it at close to $7 billion. [31] The sale could raise up to 60.9 billion pesos, about $965 million, the biggest share listing in the country's history. [31]

Why it matters. The listing comes in a week when Asian tech shares fell sharply. [8]

Netflix reports its results on 20 October and Tesla on 21 October. [32] SpaceX, which listed its shares in June, reports late on Tuesday, its second report as a public company. [32] Analysts expect Tesla's profit per share to fall 14% from a year earlier and Meta's to fall 8%, though Meta's sales are forecast to rise 23%. [32] Netflix has said it expects $12.5 billion of free cash flow, the money left after costs and investment. [32]

Why it matters. The results follow a week of falling AI and chip shares, so investors will look hard at how much these firms plan to spend on AI. [32]

Wise, a company listed in New York and London that moves money between countries, said its revenue rose 21% to $739 million in July to September. [33][34] Its customers sent $72 billion across borders, 22% more than a year earlier, and kept $44 billion with it. [33][34] Wise said revenue growth this year should be in the top half of its 15% to 20% target. [33] Its average fee on a transfer fell to 0.49% from 0.52%. [34]

Why it matters. Wise is paid interest on the money customers keep with it, which brought in $238 million in the quarter, and its outlook counts on recent central bank rate rises. [33][34]

Malaysia's economy grew 5.3% in July to September from a year earlier, an early official estimate showed on Friday. [35] That was slower than 6% in the quarter before. [35] Factories grew 7.5% on exports, and building rose 6%, helped by new data centres. [35] Every part of the economy grew except mining. [35] Malaysia's government raised its forecast for the year last week, to near the top of a 4.8% to 5.3% range. [35]

Why it matters. Malaysia has become a hub for data centres, so it gains from the AI building boom that investors elsewhere in Asia began to doubt this week. [35][8]

Moody's, a credit-rating agency, raised Egypt's rating to B3 on Friday, lifting it out of the 'substantial risk' group. [36] A better rating makes it easier for a country to borrow. [36] Moody's said stronger tax collection and tighter spending had cut Egypt's government debt and interest bills. [36] B3 is still six steps below investment grade, the level of a safe borrower. [36] Egypt's prices rose 13.9% in the year to September, pushed up by energy. [36]

Why it matters. Egypt buys more energy than it makes, so the Iran war's fuel prices hit it hard. [36] Moody's said Egypt coped by raising fuel prices and holding back spending instead of undoing earlier reforms. [36]

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's head, said on Saturday the fund will 'support Iraq very firmly' after Iraq asked for a loan programme. [37][4] Iraq's oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, and on 7 October its central bank made the dinar about 15% cheaper against the dollar. [38] Georgieva said talks with Lebanon had made 'significant progress'. [37] Lebanon's economy is forecast to shrink 6.4% this year, by the World Bank's estimate. [37]

Why it matters. Iraq imports much of its food and medicine, so a cheaper dinar raises their price for people paid in dinars. [38] Georgieva said Gulf states were cushioned by reforms and savings made before the war. [37]

Dubai's economy shrank 2.3% in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, once rising prices are taken out, official figures released on Sunday showed. [39] The Iran war, which began on 28 February, hit travel and trade. [39] Shops and wholesale trade, the biggest part of Dubai's economy, fell 6%, and transport fell 7.4%. [39] Finance and insurance grew 8.8%, and health care 14.3%. [39] In the first three months alone, Dubai had grown 2.4%. [39]

Why it matters. Dubai earns much of its money from people and goods passing through, so a war that closes routes hits it directly. [39] The whole UAE grew just 0.4% in the first half. [39]

China said on Friday it was ready to work with India on 'each other's' trade concerns, after India's finance minister criticised its limits on Indian goods. [40] Nirmala Sitharaman said at the IMF meetings that rules other than tariffs, such as food-safety checks, are the biggest barrier to Indian sales of medicines, meat and vegetables. [40] India's trade deficit with China reached $105.9 billion in January to September, up 20.7%, by China's customs figures. [40]

Why it matters. India sold China about $19 billion of goods in that time and bought about $125 billion, so the gap keeps growing even though India's own sales rose 41%. [40]