Finance, in brief

United Airlines, one of the biggest US airlines, expects to earn 50 cents to $1.50 a share in October to December. [1] The middle of that range is 43% below what analysts expected. [1]

The reason is fuel: United expects to pay $4.80 a gallon for jet fuel this quarter, up from $3.90 in July to September. [2]

In July United expected to earn $9 to $11 a share this year. Now it expects $7.22 at most, and its shares fell after the news. [2][7]

People are still flying. United carried a record number of passengers, and its revenue rose 17.4% to $17.88 billion in July to September. [1][2]

But the extra fuel bill swallowed nearly 70% of the extra revenue, and United's profit margin fell to 6.2% from 8% a year earlier. [1]

Alaska Air Group, which owns Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines, expects a loss of $2 to $2.50 a share this quarter. Analysts expected a loss of $1.04. [1][4]

Alaska expects to spend $1.8 billion more on fuel this year than it planned, and it lost $147 million in July to September. [1][3]

US airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel in the first eight months of 2026, $13.2 billion more than a year earlier. US fares were nearly 23% higher than a year earlier through September. [1]

In Europe, Michael O'Leary, the boss of Ryanair, said fares could rise 10% to 20% next year, which he called the biggest rise in history. [5][6]

Ryanair agreed the price of 80% of its fuel in advance at $67 a barrel, and that deal lasts until March 2027. For the year after, only 15% is fixed, at $85. The airline body IATA expects jet fuel to average $152 a barrel this year. [5][6]

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, nudged $112 a barrel on Tuesday before closing below $109. [8][9]

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, which advises rich countries on oil, said he sees no credible way for oil markets to return to normal in 2027. [62]

Why it matters. Watch whether airlines start flying fewer seats to keep fares up, as Delta's boss says they may have to. [1] Deutsche Bank analysts warn that higher fares could then start to put travellers off. [1]

General Motors, one of the biggest US carmakers, said its core profit rose 22% to $4.1 billion in July to September, beating forecasts. [12] Core profit here means profit before interest and tax, leaving out one-off items. [12] Pricey pickups and SUVs sold well, and GM sold fewer electric cars, which have usually lost it money. [12] It approved a $20 billion plan to buy back its own shares, with no timetable. [12][13] Its shares still fell 7%, the worst in the S&P 500 index. [8]

Why it matters. GM said the path ahead is harder, as energy, transport and tariff costs rise. [12] It still expects next year to be better, assuming shoppers keep buying and those costs ease. [12]

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, nudged $112 a barrel on Tuesday, its highest since May, before closing below $109. [8][26][9] It fell after an unconfirmed report of new efforts to end the US-Iran war. [9] A diplomat in the talks then said reports that a deal was close were wrong. [9] Brent has risen almost 80% this year. [9] Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have passed their pre-war level, helped by a shipping system run under US protection. [45]

Why it matters. Its price feeds into jet fuel, which is eating into airline profits. [1] Higher oil also keeps alive the fear of inflation that central banks are fighting. [26]

The interest rate on ten-year US government bonds fell to about 5.1% on Tuesday. [24][64] It eased after the number of new homes started fell 5.2% in September, well short of forecasts. [25] US mortgage rates are already about 7.43%. [65] Nearly all economists in a Reuters poll expect the US central bank to hold rates at its meeting on 27 and 28 October, then raise them in December. [26]

Why it matters. The housing slump complicates the US central bank's fight against inflation. [65] If it raises rates as expected, mortgage rates could rise further. [65]

The extra interest France pays to borrow for ten years, compared with Germany, closed at its widest since 2011 on Tuesday. [8] The cost of insuring against France failing to repay its debts reached its highest since 2013. [8] France's parliament is voting on the tax side of next year's budget after a weekend of riots. [24] France's government will use soldiers to guard sites during protests planned for Saturday. [49]

Why it matters. A wider gap means every new loan costs France's government more. [24] A Commerzbank analyst said any French government must now choose between markets that want cuts and protesters who want more spending. [24]

Carrefour, one of France's biggest supermarket chains, cut its profit target for 2026 after riots damaged or looted about 50 of its stores. [22] Its sales had risen 3.9% to 22.7 billion euros in July to September, before the trouble. [21] Its bosses said the riots could cut its yearly operating profit by up to 200 million euros. [21] It now expects to have slightly less cash left over than in 2025. [21]

Why it matters. Damaged shops, fewer shoppers and higher security bills are how a weekend of riots becomes a smaller profit. [21] Carrefour's shares barely moved, which suggests investors had expected the cut. [22]

CATL, the Chinese company that makes about 39% of the world's electric-car batteries, said profit rose 14.5% to 21.2 billion yuan in July to September. [14] Analysts had expected about 41%, and it was its slowest growth in nearly two years. [14] Chinese car sales are cooling and rivals are pushing prices down. [14][16] It is also selling more batteries for storing power, which earn less. [15][16] Its Hong Kong shares fell 9.4% to a 15-month low. [15]

Why it matters. CATL supplies Tesla, BMW and Volkswagen, so its prices matter for electric cars well beyond China. [16] Its share of new car batteries in China fell to 40.9% in September from 49.8% in January, as its rival BYD gained. [14]

Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI models, lost $80.7 billion in the first half of 2026. [54] That is in a draft of its share-sale filing seen by the Wall Street Journal. [54] About $72 billion of that came from accounting charges. [53] They reflect changes in the value of convertible notes, which are loans that can turn into shares, and other deals it used to raise money. [53][54] Sales were $16.3 billion, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier. [53][55] Reuters could not check the report. [53]

Why it matters. Investors at Anthropic's investor day discussed a value of about $1.5 trillion, below the $2 trillion expected for its share sale in November. [53] Orlando Bravo, who runs the investment firm Thoma Bravo, said listings this big will crowd other companies out. [56]

Big oil companies are set to report much higher profits for July to September, Reuters reports. [19] Shell, BP and TotalEnergies expect their refining margins, the gap between what fuel sells for and what crude costs, to be three to four times last year's. [19] Shell expects a record $42 a barrel. [19] Chevron and Exxon have used extra cash to pay down debt. [19] BP stopped buying back its shares this year to cut its debt. [19]

Why it matters. HSBC expects Shell to raise its share buybacks to $3.5 billion a quarter. [19] Shell and TotalEnergies report on 29 October, and BP, Chevron and Exxon on 30 October. [19]

Capital One, a big US credit-card lender, made a profit of $3.54 billion in July to September, up from $3.19 billion a year earlier. [17] It set aside $2.9 billion for loans that may not be repaid, well below the $3.6 billion analysts expected. [18] It is still joining up Discover, the card company it bought for $35 billion. [17] It bought back $2.6 billion of its own shares in the quarter. [18]

Why it matters. Its loans held up well despite worries about high energy prices. [18] Its boss said it will spend more on advertising next year to win customers from rivals. [18]

Netflix, the biggest streaming service, said revenue rose 11.8% to $12.87 billion in July to September, its slowest rise in nearly three years. [51] It expects less profit than analysts did for October to December. [51] It cut its forecast for this year's advertising sales to about $2.7 billion, from $3 billion. [51] Its shares fell about 6% after hours, having already fallen more than 40% in a year. [51][52]

Why it matters. Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and changed its programme bosses last week. [52] Ted Sarandos, one of its two chief executives, said 'we could do better'. [51]

The Bank of Japan, the country's central bank, may raise its forecast for price rises next year, four sources told Reuters. [28] Higher oil prices are lasting longer than it expected. [28] It is expected to keep its main interest rate at 1.25% at its meeting ending on 30 October, after raising it last month. [28] That could leave room for another rise as soon as December. [28]

Why it matters. The yen rose after record demand at a sale of 20-year Japanese government bonds. [30] A State Street strategist said these bonds are starting to look like a safer place for money than France's. [30]

Japan's exports rose 16.7% from a year earlier in September, well short of the 20.1% analysts expected. [29] Growth slowed for a second month in a row, after a near four-year high in July. [29] Chips grew 49.4% and chipmaking machines 43.9%. [29] Japan's oil imports from the US rose nearly 820% in value, while those from the Middle East barely moved. [29]

Why it matters. Exports have driven Japan's growth this year, so a slowdown matters for the Bank of Japan's next step. [29] The war has pushed Japan to buy oil from the US instead of the Gulf. [29]

Andrew Hauser, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said the outlook for prices looks 'materially worse', partly because of high oil prices. [31] The bank meets on 3 November to decide whether to raise its 4.60% rate for a fifth time this year. [31] Markets put the chance of a rise at about 40%, up from 30% at the start of the week. [31] Price figures for July to September are due next week. [31]

Why it matters. Hauser said interest rates cannot fix an oil shock. [31] He said they must stop higher costs feeding into what people expect prices to do next. [31]

Asian shares rose on Wednesday after two days of falls. [44] South Korea's main share index jumped about 3.7%, led by Samsung Electronics, up 7.1%, and SK Hynix, up 6.2%. [44][45] Both are big makers of memory chips. [44] SK Hynix had fallen 31% in October, to its lowest since April. [46] Strong results from US companies tied to AI helped lift the mood. [44]

Why it matters. An MUFG analyst said worries remain about whether AI spending can last. [45] Another analyst said investors now ask who is paying for AI, and on what terms. [45]

The Dow Jones index of big US companies rose 1% on Tuesday, and the wider S&P 500 rose 0.3%. [8] The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 1.7%, its biggest gain since 4 August. [8] Shares rose after oil fell back and several companies reported good results. [46] Healthcare companies led, up 2.3%, and Equifax and Hasbro were the biggest gainers in the S&P 500. [8]

Why it matters. The market had been falling on worries about AI companies' debts and demand. [46] Chip shares fell hard last week before Tuesday's partial recovery. [46]

Adidas, the German sportswear maker, raised its 2026 profit forecast to 2.5 billion euros, from 2.3 billion. [20] Its operating profit hit a record 1.01 billion euros in July to September, up 37%. [20] About 200 million euros of US tariff refunds after a court ruling helped, along with more goods sold without discounts. [20] It plans to spend about 100 million euros of that windfall in the last quarter. [20]

Why it matters. Importers are getting back an estimated $166 billion after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs in February. [41] Adidas gave the figures in an unplanned statement, ahead of its full results on 29 October. [20]

3M, the US maker of Scotch tape, Post-it notes and safety gear, raised its 2026 forecast to $9.10 to $9.15 a share, from $8.80 to $8.95. [23] It credited cost cuts and higher prices. [23] Sales of materials for chipmaking and data centres grew, while car and electronics customers bought less. [23] Its shares rose about 4% on Tuesday. [46]

Why it matters. 3M sells to thousands of factories, and it said US industry stayed strong. [23] Higher energy costs are still a worry for factory demand, it said. [23]

UK bank shares fell nearly 2% on Tuesday, to their lowest in more than four months. [32] HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest fell 1.6% to 2.3%. [32] The Guardian has reported that John Healey, the UK's finance minister, is likely to raise taxes on banks in his budget on 28 October. [33][32] Analysts at UBS estimate that doubling banks' extra tax to 6% would cut UK banks' profits by about 2%. [33]

Why it matters. Banks argue that taxing them makes loans dearer for everyone. [33] Lenders that do most business in the UK, such as NatWest and Lloyds, would feel it most, UBS says. [33]

Flutter, which owns the betting brands Paddy Power and Sky Bet, plans to cut up to 1,400 jobs. [34] It blamed higher gambling taxes in the UK's 2025 budget, which raised the tax on online casino games from 21% to 40%. [34] Most cuts fall in the UK and Ireland, where it employs 8,960 people, in places such as Leeds, Dublin and Sunderland. [34] Paddy Power's founder has accused the industry of scaremongering. [34]

Why it matters. The news lands a week before the next UK budget, where a tax on slot machines may rise. [34] A person in the industry said Flutter's merging of its brands also played a part. [34]

Lenders trying to take over Thames Water, Britain's largest water company, chose John Hutton, a former Labour minister, as its future chair. [35] They offer a 10 billion pound rescue, which the UK government must approve. [35] Thames serves 16 million customers and recently asked its lenders for 2.4 billion pounds more. [35] Andy Burnham, the UK prime minister, has asked officials for bolder options. [35]

Why it matters. Before he became prime minister, Burnham said he would put Thames into public ownership. [35] Choosing a well-known former minister is the lenders' attempt to win over the UK government. [35]

Jio Platforms, India's biggest phone company by number of users, opened its share sale to the public on Wednesday. [37][38] It hopes to raise about 302 billion rupees, which could make it India's biggest share sale ever. [36] At the top price it would be worth about $108 billion. [37] Lenders and brokers are offering small investors loans to buy in. [38] The sale closes on Friday and the shares start trading on 28 October. [37]

Why it matters. Most of the money will repay Jio's debts rather than build anything new. [37] Bankers said strong buying by small investors matters because India's main share index has fallen more than 10% this year, among Asia's worst. [38]

Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said the US wants to work more closely with Reliance Industries on refining oil from the Americas. [40] Reliance's Jamnagar refinery in India is the world's largest at one site, processing 1.4 million barrels a day. [40] By the end of September Reliance was the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil outside the US. [40] India's main share index rose about 1% on Wednesday on hopes of a trade deal with the US. [39]

Why it matters. The Trump administration wants India to buy Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil. [40] Trump said in March that Reliance would help pay for the first new US oil refinery in 50 years. [40]

Gellert Global Group, a US food importer, sued to overturn President Trump's 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods. [41] Trump imposed them in July under Section 338, a 1930 law never before used for a tariff, on goods from wine and honey to hockey sticks. [41] The importer wants the tariffs ruled unlawful and refunded with interest. [41] Its lawyers won the case in which the US Supreme Court struck down Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs in February. [41]

Why it matters. The US government is already refunding about $166 billion of those earlier tariffs. [41] Ken Griffin, who runs the investment firm Citadel, called the tariffs on US allies 'a disaster' that pushed prices up. [42]

Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary, said changes to who owns Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will come 'next year, the year after'. [43] The two mortgage giants have been run by the US government since the 2008 financial crisis. [43] President Trump said this summer he was thinking about selling some of the US government's shares. [43] Releasing them is likely to push mortgage rates up, and Bessent has called mortgage rates 'our North Star'. [43]

Why it matters. US mortgage rates recently reached their highest since November 2023. [43] Housing starts fell 5.2% in September, the same day. [43]

Gold fell for a fourth day on Wednesday, to about $4,118 an ounce. [26] Higher oil prices have raised fears of inflation, which could keep interest rates high. [26] Gold pays no interest, so it does worse when rates rise. [27] It has fallen by about a fifth since the US-Iran war began in late February. [27]

Why it matters. Traders see about a 90% chance that the US central bank raises rates in December. [26] If those expected rises fall away, one analyst said, gold would likely go up. [26]

European natural gas prices topped 90 euros a megawatt-hour, a unit of energy, for the first time in almost four years, then fell as much as 5.3%. [47] Prices are still more than double their level before the war. [47] Europe's gas stores are about 75% full, the lowest for this time of year in records going back to 2009. [47] Germany's are just over 61% full. [47]

Why it matters. Europe may have to outbid Asian buyers for gas cargoes this winter. [47] European governments have so far refused new price caps, because their budgets are stretched and borrowing is dear. [47]