Finance, in brief

The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, announces its rate decision on Wednesday 28 October. [1][2] Futures prices late on Thursday gave a rise only a 5% chance, and a rise in December an 80% chance, LSEG data showed. [1]

In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expected the US central bank to keep its rate at 3.75% to 4% this week. [3] All 100 expected a rise in December. [3]

The US central bank raised its rate in September for the first time since 2023. [1] Investors doubt it will raise again a week before the US midterm elections on 3 November, Reuters reported. [1]

Bank of America, one of the biggest US banks, said on Monday it still forecasts a rise this week, citing September's inflation figures. [5] An analysis on Investing.com expects a split vote, since four of the US central bank's rate-setters had projected half a point more of rises by the year's end. [4]

The day after the decision, the US publishes the price measure the US central bank watches most. [2] Prices without food and fuel are forecast to be up 3.1% on a year earlier, from 3.0% the month before. [2]

The European Central Bank, which sets rates for the countries that use the euro, meets on Thursday 29 October. [6][7] Economists polled by Reuters expect it to hold at 2.5% after rises in June and September, and to raise again in December. [6]

France's ten-year borrowing rate rose above 5.1% on 22 October, its highest in 24 years. [7] France now pays 1.7 percentage points a year more than Germany, against 0.92 points when the euro-zone bank last met. [6]

Morningstar, an investment research firm, says those higher French rates already cool the economy. [7] That may lessen the need for more rate rises, it says. [7]

The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting on Friday 30 October with its rate at 1.25%, a 31-year high. [9] Of the economists in a Reuters poll who named a month for the next rise, about 80% chose December and 2% chose this week. [9]

Japan's economy minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said on Friday that Japan cannot yet declare that falling prices are over. [10] That puts him at odds with the Bank of Japan, which sees prices close to its 2% goal. [10]

The Bank of Canada is the exception. [12] Nineteen of 34 economists in a Reuters poll expect it to raise its rate to 2.5% from 2.25% on Wednesday, its first move in a year. [12] Investors put the chance near 80%, and Canada's dollar rose to a five-week high on Friday. [13]

Central banks in New Zealand and Thailand also decide this week, and China publishes its factory profits, the Wall Street Journal reports. [8]

Why it matters. The first test is Wednesday 28 October: investors told Reuters they will listen to Kevin Warsh's press conference after the decision for any hint about December. [1]

Alphabet, which owns Google, and Microsoft report results on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday. [1] About a third of the companies in the S&P 500, the index of 500 big US firms, report this week. [1] The biggest cloud and AI firms, these three and Meta among them, are expected to spend about $800 billion this year on buildings and equipment, Reuters says. [1] Alphabet's shares fell 6% last week ahead of its results. [17]

Why it matters. Investors want to know whether that spending earns money, after Meta's results last week sent its shares down 7% in a day. [17] That spending also pays a wide range of firms that supply the building, so the answer reaches well beyond these three. [1]

France's National Assembly, the main chamber of its parliament, resumes debating the budget's tax measures on Tuesday 27 October. [15] France's government wants to cut its yearly deficit to 5% of the economy in 2027, from 5.4% this year. [15] Moody's, a credit rating firm, kept France's grade on Friday but warned that a split parliament blocks the cuts. [16] France's public debt is a record $4 trillion, 119% of the size of its economy. [16]

Why it matters. More protests were planned for Saturday, after riots the weekend before, and fund managers are weighing whether they make the cuts harder to pass. [15] France's ten-year borrowing rate is already at a 24-year high. [7]

Nvidia, whose chips run most AI, has promised to cover $36 billion of deals for smaller AI cloud firms if they fail, its July filing shows. [18] It also guarantees up to $105 billion for an OpenAI data centre planned in Ohio. [18] Shares in three of these firms, CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, are down at least 30% this month. [18] Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, an investment firm, says firms are not yet earning enough from AI to pay high prices for it. [19]

Why it matters. If a customer cannot pay, Nvidia pays instead, so the risk of the AI building boom sits partly with Nvidia's own shareholders. [18]

Audi, the luxury car maker owned by Volkswagen, plans a $4 billion factory in Georgia, Donald Trump announced at a rally on Saturday. [20] It would build 200,000 SUVs a year and create about 4,500 jobs. [20] US tariffs cost Audi 1.2 billion euros last year, because it imports every car it sells in the US. [20][21] Building starts next year, and cars only in the early 2030s. [21]

Why it matters. Critics say Trump's tariffs have raised car prices. [20] Trump is using the plant to argue that they bring jobs to Georgia, which has close races for the US Senate and for governor. [20]

Kotak Mahindra Bank, India's third-largest private bank by stock market value, made a profit of 42.11 billion rupees in July to September. [22] That beat the 41.04 billion analysts expected, and was up from 32.53 billion a year earlier. [22] Its loans and other lending to customers grew 21% in a year. [24] But its margin, the share it earns on each loan after paying savers, fell to 4.31% from 4.53%, because it took in costly dollar deposits. [23]

Why it matters. The dollar deposits came through a Reserve Bank of India scheme to support the rupee, and they cost Kotak more than ordinary deposits. [23] Its outgoing chief executive expects margins to stay near this level for the next two quarters. [23]

IDFC First Bank, an Indian lender, made a profit of 1,045 crore rupees in July to September, up 296.5% on a year earlier. [26] A crore is ten million. Its income from interest, after paying savers, rose 21%. [25] Its loans grew 30.1%, and its bad loans fell to 1.32% of the total, from 1.51%. [26] AU Small Finance Bank, another Indian lender, raised its profit 53% to 858 crore rupees. [27]

Why it matters. Both banks earned a smaller share on each loan than three months earlier, and both banks' shares fell. [26][27] Lending more is lifting their profits even as each loan earns them a little less. [25]

Godrej Properties, an Indian housebuilder, made a profit of 154 crore rupees in July to September, down 62% from 405 crore a year earlier. [28] Its income rose to 2,572 crore, but its costs nearly doubled to 2,477 crore. [28] Pre-sales, flats sold before they are built, fell 6% to 8,008 crore. [28] Its shares fell 4.2% on Friday and are down 26.7% in three months. [28]

Why it matters. Higher costs drove the fall in profit, Mint reports. [28] An adviser told Mint that building costs and timelines are what to watch as its projects near completion. [28]

Jio Platforms, the phone and internet company backed by Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, starts trading on India's stock exchanges on Wednesday. [11] Its $3.2 billion share sale is India's largest ever. [11] Shares will be handed to buyers on Monday. [29] A share sold at 1,119 rupees already changes hands for about 22% more in unofficial trading before the listing. [29] At the sale price Jio is worth about 10.3 lakh crore rupees, a lakh crore being a trillion. [30]

Why it matters. A first-day jump would reward the buyers who got shares in the sale. [29] The unofficial premium is no promise: over 22 trading days it has moved between 148 and 273 rupees a share. [29]

The State Bank of Pakistan meets on Monday with its rate at 11.5%. [14] Prices rose 10.2% in July to September, from 4.3% a year earlier, as oil imports cost more. [14] A senior banker told Dawn that a rise of a full percentage point is needed. [14] Business groups in Karachi, Pakistan's biggest city, want the rate cut to single digits instead. [14]

Why it matters. Bankers say a bigger rise is needed to bring prices under control. [14] A Karachi business leader says the cost of a rise always falls on traders and factory owners. [14]

Pakistan's trade gap with seven Gulf countries fell 26.35% to $2.85 billion in July to September, from $3.87 billion a year earlier, central bank data show. [45] Imports from the region fell 20%, while exports rose 11%. [45] Imports from Kuwait fell 97% and from Qatar 73%. [45] The UAE and Saudi Arabia supply 90% of Pakistan's energy imports from the region. [45]

Why it matters. Dawn says the war has disrupted Pakistan's trade since March. [45] The gap shrank mostly because Pakistan bought less from the Gulf, not because it sold much more there. [45]

Pakistan's Water and Power Development Authority signed a 133 billion rupee contract on Saturday with a joint venture led by Power China, a Chinese builder. [46] It covers the gates and steel parts of the Diamer-Bhasha dam on the Indus river. [46] The dam is being built across the Indus 40km downstream of Chilas, in northern Pakistan. [46] When finished, it will store 8.1 million acre-feet of water. [46]

Why it matters. Pakistan's government calls the dam a priority for its supply of water, food and energy. [46]

Indonesia cut its pipeline gas exports to Singapore by about 9% from Saturday, its gas regulator SKK Migas said. [47] The gas goes instead to power stations in Batam, Bintan and Sumatra. [47] Batam and other cities had a 16-hour blackout this month. [47] Singapore, which makes up to 95% of its electricity from gas, says the cut is under 2% of its daily use. [47]

Why it matters. Singapore's importers will use their contracts to claim for the lost gas, and its state gas buyer is ready to bring in more by ship. [47] Indonesia's energy minister says his country's own needs come first. [47]

The US Energy Department named helium a critical material on Friday. [35] Helium is needed to make computer chips, and is mostly a by-product of natural gas. [35] Qatar's helium exports have been cut by Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and Russia has limited its own exports. [35] The label makes more government financing available to helium producers. [35]

Why it matters. Qatar and Russia, the other top producers, are both selling less abroad. [35] The US, the biggest producer, wants its own industries supplied from home, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said. [35]

SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket company, is in talks to use at least 80,000 mobile phone masts to build a fourth US phone network, Bloomberg reported. [34] On Friday AT&T's shares fell 5.6%, T-Mobile's 5% and Verizon's 1.6%. [34] Crown Castle, which owns masts SpaceX is talking to, rose 11.6%. [34] SpaceX already sells internet from its Starlink satellites in rural areas. [34]

Why it matters. Investors fear that a fourth network would mean more competition for AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. [34] Bernstein, a research firm, says the effect may still be years away. [34]

Russia's central bank sold about 6.2 tonnes of gold in September, and 62 tonnes since January. [36] A Polish gold dealer told Euronews that Russia sells in Hong Kong and China's central bank buys. [36] Kazakhstan plans to cut gold to 75% of its reserves from about 78% by the year's end. [36] Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce last week for the first time since July. [37]

Why it matters. Russia needs money for the war in Ukraine, the dealer said. [36] Poland's central bank, close to its goal of 700 tonnes, has kept buying for years. [36]

UK Finance, the lobby group for banks such as Lloyds, JP Morgan and Revolut, says London taxes a big bank at 46.2%, more than Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Dublin or New York. [49] It sent the figures to John Healey, the UK chancellor, before next week's Budget. [49] The Guardian's own sums, checked by an accounting firm, put Paris at 51.6% to 57.3%. [49] UK Finance left Paris out, saying it could not compare it fairly. [49]

Why it matters. Banks are lobbying against a higher tax on their profits in the Budget. [49] The TUC, Britain's union federation, says raising the extra tax on banks from 3% to 8% would bring in 2.25 billion pounds a year. [49]

Nationwide, a British lender owned by its members, is cutting 275 more jobs. [38] It says it is removing work done twice since it bought Virgin Money, a high-street bank, for 2.9 billion pounds. [38] The cuts follow 600 announced in June. [38] Staff who serve customers are not affected, and it has pledged to keep its 700 branches open until at least 2030. [38]

Why it matters. The cuts fall on teams in mortgages, HR, customer operations and finance. [38] Nationwide took on more than 7,000 Virgin Money staff and now employs about 27,000. [38]

Of 1,347 'levelling up' projects, meant to revive poorer British towns, 821 were still unfinished in May, Guardian analysis of official data shows. [50] In 73 council areas not one project is fully complete. [50] The funds were launched between 2018 and 2021 under Conservative governments. [50] Rising prices forced many councils to scale back or pause work. [50]

Why it matters. The deadline for the main funds has moved to March 2028. [50] Labour's government now gives places 2 million pounds a year for 10 years instead of making councils bid for grants. [50]

Owners are taking apart Airbus and Boeing planes only a few years old, because their engines and parts are worth more than the plane. [39] Twenty-one of the newest planes were scrapped between June 2025 and August, at 6.4 years old on average. [39] Narrow planes usually retire at 21.7 years. [39] Renting one engine for the Airbus A320neo now costs up to $180,000 a month. [39]

Why it matters. A shortage of engines, made worse by a Pratt & Whitney recall, keeps airline costs high. [39]

The strategic reserve of maple syrup in Quebec, Canada's main syrup region, will be empty by February, the producers who run it predict. [40] Canada makes more than 75% of the world's syrup. [40] Exports jumped nearly 16% last year as US buyers bought ahead of tariffs, while output fell 5%. [40] The reserve is three warehouses holding about 218,000 barrels. [40]

Why it matters. Without the reserve, a poor harvest next spring could not be made up from stock. [40] The producers say supply is secure for the coming year. [40]

Goldman Sachs, a US investment bank, cut its view of Ola Electric, an Indian maker of electric scooters, to 'sell'. [41] It lowered its price target to 23 rupees from 39.28, about 23% below Friday's 29.93. [41] Goldman says high interest costs and heavy spending make it hard for Ola to bring in more cash than it spends. [41] It cut sales forecasts for the next three years by up to 10%. [41]

Why it matters. Goldman expects losses to last, so Ola will need more money from lenders or shareholders. [41]

KEC International, an Indian builder of power lines, won orders worth 2,872 crore rupees from Power Grid Corporation of India, the state grid company. [42] It is the largest order its Indian power business has ever had. [42] The lines will carry 8.5 gigawatts of renewable power from Gujarat. [42] Its orders this year now pass 13,500 crore. [42]

Why it matters. India's demand for electricity is rising. [42] New renewable power plants in Gujarat need lines like these to send their power to users. [42]

EAAA India Alternatives, an investment firm backed by Edelweiss, opens a share sale of about 1,200 crore rupees on Monday. [43] It invests in roads and offices whose tolls and rents pay its investors. [43] MK Sons Fine Jewels, which has five shops in Mumbai and Ahmedabad, opens a 275 crore sale on Wednesday. [44] It will spend part of the money on new showrooms and paying debt. [44]

Why it matters. Both sales come in the same week as Jio's listing. [11] Nikkei Asia says India's market for new shares has picked up after a slow first half of the year. [11]

Berkshire Hathaway, the company Warren Buffett built, saw its shares close at a record on Thursday. [31] Its class A shares ended at $820,500. [31] They had lost as much as 14.3% after Buffett said in May 2025 that he would step down as chief executive. [31] Greg Abel now runs it. [31]

Why it matters. Investors had feared a 'Buffett premium' would vanish when he left, and the share price says it has not. [31]

In a CNBC survey, 63% of US voters said they oppose an AI data centre within 10 miles of their home, and 13% support one. [48] Even among Trump's MAGA supporters, only 29% would back one. [48] Communities fighting data centres point to higher power bills, water use and noise. [48] The survey asked 1,000 voters between 14 and 18 October. [48]

Why it matters. The backlash is pushing Republicans who backed data centres to talk about power bills and tougher rules before the vote. [48]

Iran's Revolutionary Guards, its most powerful armed force, said on Saturday that they keep full control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea route for Gulf oil. [32] The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Friday that Gulf oil exports are above their level before the war. [32] Asked about an attack on Iran, Trump said on Saturday 'maybe tomorrow'. [33] Iran rejected a reported offer to reopen the strait if the US lifts its sea blockade. [33]

Why it matters. The two governments give opposite pictures of how much Gulf oil is getting out. [32] Oil markets reopen on Monday with both claims standing.