Money, in brief

A study of nearly 14 million US home sales found buyers who paid above the asking price earned about 1.3 percentage points less each year. [2]

Held for the typical 6.3 years, that gap works out at roughly an 8.2% overpayment. [2]

Bidding-war winners were also 1.9 percentage points more likely to default on the mortgage. [2]

They resold faster than other buyers, which suggests the extra money bought auction fever rather than a house they loved. [2]

The cause is arithmetic, not foolishness: everyone guesses, the highest guess wins, so the winner is whoever overestimated most. [1]

An auction sells to the highest bid, whether the bidding is open in a room or sealed in envelopes. [26]

Three engineers at an oil company named it, after noticing the drilling plots they won held less oil than expected. [1][3]

Richard Thaler collected it in a 1992 book of economic oddities, and published a new edition with Alex Imas last November. [3][4][5]

It runs well beyond auction rooms - house bidding wars, company takeovers and clubs chasing young players all have the same shape. [3]

A four-bedroom Yorkshire Dales house guided at £19,000 drew 123 bids and sold for £263,000. [6]

Its buyer inherited a 1996 planning condition requiring an occupant to work at the local pub, which closed in 2025. [6]

The effect is uneven: the study found lower-income, Black and Hispanic buyers are more likely to overpay in a bidding war. [2]

San Francisco is the exception, with single-family prices up about 17% in a year to a $2.2m median while supply fell roughly 45%. [7]

Most of the US market runs the other way - about 62% of buyers paid below the original list price last year, the highest share since 2019. [8]

In June about 18.8% of American listings carried a price cut, and the median asking price was down 2.5% on a year earlier. [10]

Nashville shows the swing: a median listing price of $453,000 in early 2022, a $590,000 peak in July 2023, then $529,000 by March 2026. [28]

Zoopla put the average UK home about £16,000 below its listing price last November, with price growth down to 1.3% a year. [17]

Sellers are warned about the mirror risk - price too high and the home sits, price too low and money is left on the table. [27]

What tips a market toward buyers is simply more homes than buyers, which shows up as longer selling times and price competition. [29]

Australia sells homes by open outcry auction, and Victoria will soon force sellers to publish their reserve price seven days ahead. [11]

Why it matters. Watch whether published reserve prices calm the bidding in Victoria or simply move the anchor upward - the same reform could plausibly do either. [11]

Ministers propose making an accepted offer legally binding much earlier, with a financial penalty for pulling out without good reason. Scotland already works this way. [14]

Why it matters. Gazumped buyers currently have no legal recourse, and Rightmove says more than one in five sales fall through.

The UK government is said to be weighing a shift so the tax falls on sellers and only above a threshold, hitting London and the south-east hardest. [16]

Why it matters. One study found a two-point rise cut how often people move by 37%, which is a tax on the wrong thing.

Total listings rose 22.8% over twelve months while auction listings fell about 20%, and roughly 40% of listed homes now sell before the auction happens. [13][31]

Why it matters. Thirteen years of data show a home that fails at auction later sells about 1.3% below what a private sale would have made. [12]

Agents must disclose the seller's genuine reserve price at least seven days before an auction, under laws going to state parliament next year. [11]

Why it matters. It targets underquoting - advertising below the expected price to build a crowd - already illegal but hard to police while reserves stay private.

Auction sales rose from £5.5bn in 2024 to almost £5.9bn in 2025, and England and Wales recorded 14,025 mortgage repossession orders in 2024. [15]

Why it matters. One lot in a London room carried a guide price of £1, and one seller was in the room, still living in the house.

A settlement between Visa, Mastercard and US merchants ends the rule forcing a shop that takes one Visa credit card to take every Visa credit card. [18]

Why it matters. It opens tiered pricing at the till, the promised fee cuts run out after five years, and the fee itself is roughly 1% to 3%. [19][20][21]

UK rules from October 2024 promise repayment within five working days up to £85,000, but the bank must be told within thirteen months of the last payment. [22]

Why it matters. One woman paid £19,000 in October 2024 and only realised in March 2026; Lloyds refunded in full a day after BBC Money Box asked.

The ombudsman judged Monzo wrong in 34% of 3,372 cases, NatWest in 33% of 1,972 and HSBC in 32% of 2,535. [23]

Why it matters. Industry figures counted 185,733 tricked-transfer cases in 2024, with £450.7m taken and £267.1m repaid.

Typical American non-mortgage home costs reached $24,529 a year, up from $17,958, against the $26,508 a year spent on the mortgage itself. [24]

Why it matters. Closing costs add a national average of $4,661, about 1.6% of the average sale price, and only 37% know a 20% deposit is not required. [30][25]