Day Lila

Climate & Energy · Friday, 11 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

The world will burn a record amount of coal this year, because oil and gas cannot get out of the Gulf

Climate & Energy 36 sources

The International Energy Agency expected coal use to slip in 2026. It now expects 8.94 billion tonnes, the most ever, because countries with gas-fired power stations and idle coal plants switched to the coal.

8.94bn tonnes

of coal the world is now expected to burn in 2026, the most in any year

the same agency had forecast a small fall this year [1]

$108.68

for a barrel of Brent crude, the oil price most of the world is priced against

up about 13% in a week, the steepest weekly rise since mid-July [3]

19.71m

barrels a day produced by OPEC's eleven members in August

down 640,000 a day on July, in a month seven members had agreed to produce more [5]

up 70%

the price of fuel oil, the heavy fuel burned by ships and some power stations

Middle East exports of it fell 45% between March and August [6]

The lead story — what happened

  • The International Energy Agency, the body that tracks and forecasts energy use for most rich countries, now expects the world to burn 8.94 billion tonnes of coal in 2026. [1]
  • That is 1.2% more than last year and the most coal ever burned in a single year. [1]
  • The same agency had expected coal use to fall slightly this year. [1]
  • The reason it gives is the war between the United States and Iran, which has cut oil and liquefied gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. [1][2]
  • The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane out of the Gulf. Before the war began on 28 February, nearly a fifth of the world's crude oil, refined fuels and liquefied gas passed through it. [8]
  • Gas got expensive, so countries that own both gas-fired and coal-fired power stations ran the coal ones harder. The agency names Europe, Japan, Korea and China. [1]
  • Those countries did not build anything. The agency's own wording is that they had gas-fired fleets and spare coal capacity. [1]
  • Oil is expensive too. Brent crude, the price most of the world's barrels are set against, was $108.68 a barrel on Friday morning and heading for its first weekly close above $100 in nearly four months. [3]
  • Supply keeps shrinking rather than growing. OPEC's eleven members produced 19.71 million barrels a day in August, 640,000 less than in July, even though seven members of the wider group had agreed to pump more. [5]
  • Coal output is a separate story: the agency expects world production to fall this year, after safety inspections cut Chinese mining following a fatal accident in May. Production still stays above 9 billion tonnes for a third year running. [1]
  • Next year turns on the same sea lane. The agency says coal demand could fall in 2027 if gas shipping through Hormuz recovers, and rise further if the strait stays largely shut to it. [1]

Who is involved

  • The International Energy Agency

    the Paris-based body that measures and forecasts energy use for most rich countries; it reversed its own coal forecast this week

  • Japan, South Korea, China and European countries

    big electricity users that kept coal plants they were not using; they burned more coal than the agency expected

  • Iran

    at war with the United States and Israel since 28 February; its threats to shipping are what emptied the Strait of Hormuz

  • OPEC

    the group of eleven oil-exporting countries that agree production targets between them; its output fell in August despite an agreement to raise it

How it unfolded

  1. 28 February the United States and Israel attack Iran; traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falls to near zero [8]
  2. July an interim deal briefly returns Hormuz exports to pre-war levels of 16 million barrels a day [4]
  3. August OPEC output falls 640,000 barrels a day, and Saudi exports from its Red Sea port hit a six-month low [5][4]
  4. 10 September the International Energy Agency forecasts a record 8.94 billion tonnes of coal demand for 2026 [1]
  5. Next the agency says 2027 depends on whether liquefied gas shipping through the strait comes back [1]

Where this points

Watch whether liquefied gas shipments restart through the Strait of Hormuz: the agency says coal demand could fall again in 2027 if they do, and climb further if they do not. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Gulf shipping still blocked High

OPEC's output fell 640,000 barrels a day in August because the oil could not get out [5]; the heavy fuel that ships and some power stations burn is up more than 70% since the war began [6]

Reaching for what is already built Building

TotalEnergies will get oil out of an Angolan discovery three months after finding it, by tying it into a platform already anchored there [23]. A Chinese state company is paying $272m to add 310 megawatts to an existing Brazilian dam rather than build a new one [22]

The wait to connect anything new High

a 107.5-mile line the grid operator PJM ordered up in 2023 only reaches its West Virginia hearings in late October [20]; MISO has asked federal regulators for a 90-day review for data centres that only draw power [21]

Electric transport growing where fuel got dear Building

Europeans bought 380,000 electric and plug-in cars in August, 36% more than a year earlier [14]; Africa's imports of Chinese electric bikes rose 60% to $114.6m in the first half [16]

Money leaving clean projects that cost too much Building

the German solar builder Pvwerk went into court-supervised restructuring days after its sister company filed for insolvency [27]; the Hydrogen Council says developers keep scrapping projects because production costs stayed high [12]

The rest of the day

36 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Oil ends the week above $100

    Brent crude was trading at $108.68 a barrel on Friday morning, heading for its first weekly close above $100 in nearly four months. [3] It rose more than 6% on Thursday alone and about 13% across the week, the steepest weekly gain since mid-July. [3] Houthi fighters allied to Iran took the Yemeni port of Mocha on Thursday, which adds the Red Sea to the Gulf as water where shipping is now unsafe. [3] Until this week traders had held the price nearer $95, because Gulf exporters were finding other routes out. [4]

    Why it matters — The agency says dear oil and gas is what pushed power companies back to coal. This week the price went up again. [1][3]

  2. 03

    OPEC pumped less, not more

    The eleven countries of OPEC, the group of oil exporters that agrees production targets between its members, produced 19.71 million barrels a day in August. [5] That is 640,000 barrels a day below July, according to a Reuters survey built on shipping data and industry sources. [5] Seven members of the wider OPEC+ group, which includes Russia, had agreed in advance to increase output that month. [5] The war made it impossible: a US naval blockade cut Iran's shipments and Saudi exports faced new disruption. [5]

    Why it matters — A production target is a promise about wells. Getting the oil to a buyer needs a sea lane, and that is the part that failed. [5]

  3. 04

    The fuel ships run on is running short

    Fuel oil is the thick, heavy fuel burned by large ships and by some power stations. [6] Its price is up more than 70% since the war with Iran began, and the consultancy Rystad expects supply to be critically tight through the third quarter. [6] Refineries damaged by strikes in Russia and the Middle East are putting their remaining capacity into diesel, which pays better, and Middle East exports of fuel oil fell 45% between March and August. [6] Asia depends most on Gulf flows and is hardest hit. [6]

    Why it matters — Reuters reports higher ship fuel costs can feed through into shipping rates, and shipping rates sit inside the price of anything that arrives by sea. [6]

  4. 05

    China stopped buying oil

    China's seaborne crude oil imports in August ran 4.27 million barrels a day below the average of the three months before the war started. [7] Asia as a whole imported 22.64 million barrels a day, 16% below its pre-war average, and almost the entire fall is China's. [7] The country has a history of buying less when prices spike and more when they drop, but the size of this cut surprised analysts who track it. [7] It is absorbing most of the world's lost Gulf supply by itself. [7]

    Why it matters — Reuters' columnist writes that China is shouldering the bulk of the world's adjustment to lower Middle East supply. [7]

  5. 06

    China's oil demand forecast to fall 8.9%

    The research arm of Sinopec, China's state oil and gas company, expects the country's oil demand to fall by 600,000 barrels a day in 2026, or 8.9%. [2] That would be the third annual fall in a row. [2] A representative of the institute, Fairy Wang, said electric heavy trucks are now a threat to diesel sales, and that electric models could take half of new heavy-truck sales across the full year. [2] The forecast comes from inside the company that sells the fuel. [2]

    Why it matters — The forecast points at electric heavy trucks, whose share of new sales could reach half this year, rather than only at the war. [2]

  6. 07

    Asia's oil buyers want the US out of the Gulf

    At the APPEC oil conference in Singapore this week, one answer came back in conversation after conversation. [8] To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US president should back down and leave the Gulf to the countries in it. [8] Before the bombing began on 28 February, nearly 20% of the world's crude, refined products and liquefied gas moved through the strait. [8] Volumes fell to near zero and have recovered only partly. [8] The same people expect none of this to happen. [8]

    Why it matters — The industry that physically moves the oil thinks this ends politically rather than militarily, and it is planning for a long disruption either way. [8]

  7. 08

    Iran drops a shipping levy

    Iran has suspended a 10% charge on freight fees for foreign ships carrying oil, gas and liquid petroleum products in or out of the country, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Thursday. [9] The presidential legal deputy ordered collection to stop until Iran's government approves and publishes a list of which products the charge covers. [9] A US naval blockade has sharply cut Iran's seaborne oil exports. [9] Fars said dropping the levy could cut transport costs and encourage foreign fleets to carry Iranian cargo. [9]

    Why it matters — A country under blockade cannot order ships to come, so it lowers the price of coming. [9]

  8. 09

    A $100 oil price reaches European mortgages

    The European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the twenty countries using the euro, raised its rate to 2.5% and did nothing to discourage expectations of three more rises by April. [10] A Reuters Breakingviews column argues the bank is watching the wrong danger. [10] Workers and firms in the euro area are already absorbing high energy costs, so a slowdown is a bigger risk than inflation. [10] Oil above $100 a barrel pushes on both at once. [10]

    Why it matters — For a household in the euro area, dear fuel arrives first in the energy bill. If the European Central Bank keeps raising rates because of it, the same household pays more to borrow as well. [10]

  9. 10

    Coking coal pushes Indian steel to a four-year high

    Indian steel prices are expected to rise further in the coming weeks, executives and analysts told Reuters. [11] Two things push in the same direction: demand returning after the monsoon, and the rising cost of coking coal, the grade of coal used to make steel rather than electricity. [11] Hot-rolled coil, the flat steel that goes into cars and appliances, is already at a four-year high. [11] India is the second-biggest crude steel producer after China, and its mills had actually trimmed prices slightly between June and July. [11]

    Why it matters — Indian builders and carmakers pay for that coal a second time, a few months later, when they buy the steel it made. Their own demand is picking up in the same weeks. [11]

  10. 11

    Clean hydrogen passes $130bn committed

    Investment committed to clean hydrogen projects worldwide has passed $130 billion, the Hydrogen Council, an industry group, said in Tokyo on Thursday. [12] Its report counts more than 570 committed projects, supporting about 6.9 million tonnes a year of production capacity, and says roughly 90% of them are operating or under construction. [12] China holds more than half the world's committed capacity for hydrogen made from renewable electricity. [12] The council also says developers have scaled back and scrapped projects, because the cost of producing the fuel stayed high. [12]

    Why it matters — Governments are now buying hydrogen as energy security rather than only as a way to cut emissions, and that is a different argument with a different budget behind it. [12]

  11. 12

    US solar had its biggest quarter

    The United States installed 11.4 gigawatts of solar capacity in the second quarter of 2026. [13] That is 45% more than a year earlier and 43% more than the first quarter, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association and the analysts Wood Mackenzie. [13] Large solar farms did most of it, at 9.6 gigawatts, as developers hurried to start before a July tax-credit deadline. [13] The whole US fleet now generates about as much electricity as 50 million homes use. [13] Solar and batteries were 70% of all new US generating capacity in the first half. [13]

    Why it matters — A deadline caused part of the rush, so the next few quarters will show how much of this was building early rather than building more. [13]

  12. 13

    Global electric car sales grew only in Europe

    Worldwide sales of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid cars rose 2% in August to 1.83 million, taking the year so far to 13.4 million. [14] Europe did all the growing, at 380,000 vehicles, up 36% on a year earlier and held up by subsidies in the larger markets. [14] North American sales fell 33% to 140,000, because buyers had rushed in a year earlier to beat the end of the US federal tax credit. [14] Chinese sales fell 11% to 1.03 million against a strong month in 2025. [14]

    Why it matters — Europe grew on subsidies and North America fell because a subsidy ended a year ago. China's drop is measured against an unusually strong month in 2025. [14]

  13. 14

    China has already exported more cars than in all of 2025

    China exported more than 6.2 million passenger vehicles between January and August, beating the roughly 6 million it shipped in the whole of 2025. [15] S&P Global Ratings expects full-year export growth of 50% to 70%. [15] At home the market is shrinking: passenger car sales fell 25.6% in August to just under 1.5 million, squeezed by price wars and weak consumer confidence. [15] Chinese carmakers are selling more into Europe, Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, and are building factories in those places. [15]

    Why it matters — AP reports that the energy shock from the Iran war and higher fuel prices have pushed more petrol and diesel drivers towards electric cars. [15]

  14. 15

    Africa's electric two-wheelers

    Africa's imports of Chinese electric bikes and scooters rose 60% in the first half of the year, to $114.6 million. [16] Morocco led with 80,188 units worth $21.7 million, followed by Egypt and Algeria; South Africa took the most in sub-Saharan Africa, at 19,635. [16] Two and three-wheelers carry a large share of Africa's road traffic and are mostly used commercially. [16] In East and Central Africa the money is going into local assembly plants and battery-swapping networks rather than imports, and Spiro, the continent's largest electric bike firm, raised more than $348 million over the past year. [16]

    Why it matters — In North Africa these are commuter scooters bought by consumers. In East and West Africa they are commercial machines covering up to 150 kilometres a day, which is a much bigger fuel bill to escape. [16]

  15. 16

    Finland argues over who approves a data centre

    Google said on Wednesday it will spend at least 13 billion euros on artificial intelligence infrastructure in Finland over two years, its largest investment in Europe. [18] It plans new sites at Kajaani, Muhos and Vaala, and has signed a deal to buy nuclear power. [18] Opposition parties responded on Thursday by calling for a national permitting system for data centres, warning of power shortages and rising energy prices. [17] Finland has attracted these buildings for years with a cold climate, low-carbon electricity and an uncongested grid. [17] There is no national permit step at present. [17]

    Why it matters — Finland drew the investment by having spare grid capacity. Its politicians are now arguing about who decides how much of that spare capacity gets sold, and to whom. [17]

  16. 17

    California could meet a third of its evening peak locally

    Solar and batteries connected at distribution substations that already exist could cover about 32% of California's evening peak demand in 2032, according to a study by the analysts Kevala. [19] The evening peak is the 4pm to 9pm stretch from June to September, when the sun drops away and demand does not. [19] Kevala found room for 3,112 five-megawatt solar-and-storage installations across the state's three big utilities, serving 15,560 megawatts of local demand. [19] Clean energy groups say it shows a route to reliability that avoids major new transmission. [19]

    Why it matters — The point of the study is that the substations are already standing, so the reliability would not have to wait on new transmission being approved and built. [19]

  17. 18

    A transmission line ordered in 2023 reaches hearings next month

    West Virginia's Public Service Commission refused a request from its own legal staff to delay hearings on the MidAtlantic Resiliency Link, a 107.5-mile high-voltage line. [20] The hearings stay booked for 26 October to 2 November. [20] The grid operator PJM picked NextEra Energy Transmission to build the 500-kilovolt line back in 2023, the company formally proposed it in January, and the route is still not final. [20] Filings sit with regulators in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland and Virginia. [20] West Virginia's summer peak demand is projected to rise 8% to 12% over the next ten years. [20]

    Why it matters — PJM identified the need in 2023 and the route is still not final in 2026. Every year of that is another year in which the plants that already exist keep the job. [20]

  18. 19

    A 90-day fast lane for data centres

    MISO, which runs the electricity grid from Louisiana to Minnesota, has asked US federal regulators to allow a 90-day review for very large customers that only draw power and never push any back onto the network. [21] Google, the utility Xcel Energy and others filed in support. [21] The Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council and other groups want the plan reworked, arguing it could shift costs onto existing customers. [21] It is a partial answer to a June order telling grid operators to fix their rules for connecting very large loads by mid-November. [21]

    Why it matters — MISO wants 90 days for customers that never push power back onto the network. The objection is about who ends up carrying any cost that gets shifted. [21]

  19. 20

    A Chinese state firm expands a Brazilian dam

    Spic Brasil, part of China's State Power Investment Corporation, signed a contract worth 1.4 billion reais, about $272 million, to add 310 megawatts to the Sao Simao hydroelectric plant on the border of Minas Gerais and Goias states. [22] The work goes to Dongfang Electric and China Gezhouba Group, who won a competitive process after the capacity was awarded at Brazil's March auction. [22] The plant passes 2 gigawatts when the new unit starts in 2030. [22] That March auction was the first opening for new hydro projects in Brazil in several years. [22]

    Why it matters — Spic Brasil's chief executive, Adriana Waltrick, said getting more out of what already exists is the most efficient way to expand Brazil's capacity. [22]

  20. 21

    TotalEnergies gets oil out of a new field in three months

    TotalEnergies, the French oil and gas company, announced the Acacia-5 discovery on Block 17 off Angola, and said first oil will flow three months after the find was made in June 2026. [23] It can move that fast because there is spare room on the Pazflor floating production vessel already anchored nearby, so the new well ties straight back into it. [23] The field adds 6,000 barrels a day. [23] The company also took 40% operated stakes in two new exploration blocks, chosen partly because they sit close to facilities it already runs. [23]

    Why it matters — Where the equipment is already floating, three months separates a discovery from a barrel. Everywhere else that gap is measured in years. [23]

  21. 22

    China's aluminium cap sends smelters abroad

    China's aluminium smelters have been running above the country's 45-million-tonne capacity ceiling for the past couple of months, helped by high Shanghai prices and unusually cheap raw materials, a Reuters commentary reports. [24] The ceiling itself is staying in place. [24] Chinese producers have accepted that and are investing heavily in smelter projects outside the country instead. [24] The US president has said his country desperately needs more aluminium, while the world's largest producer is building its new capacity elsewhere. [24]

    Why it matters — A national capacity cap moves the smelter rather than the demand, and whichever country hosts it supplies the electricity to run it. [24]

  22. 23

    Volkswagen puts 16 billion euros on shrinking

    Volkswagen estimates the total cost of job cuts and possible plant closures at around 16 billion euros, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters. [25] The figure covers a restructuring pact agreed last week, the largest in the carmaker's history. [25] The plan explores alternatives for four German plants that will run out of models to build during the next decade, and cuts about 50,000 more positions than previously planned. [25] Volkswagen has blamed Chinese competition, tariffs and too much factory capacity. [25]

    Why it matters — Europe's largest carmaker is paying to get smaller in the same month Chinese car exports passed their entire 2025 total. [25][15]

  23. 24

    UK car sales best August in eight years

    New car registrations in the UK rose about 13% in August to more than 90,000, the highest for that month since 2018, according to preliminary figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. [26] Battery-electric cars took about 30% of the month and 26% of the year so far. [26] Both sit below the 33% that Britain's zero-emission vehicle mandate requires of manufacturers for 2026. [26] A separate count by New AutoMotive also put August battery-electric sales near 30%, using different sources and methods. [26]

    Why it matters — Both the monthly and the year-to-date share sit below the 33% the mandate sets for 2026, and the year has four months to run. [26]

  24. 25

    A German solar builder goes into restructuring

    Pvwerk, a sister company of the German solar developer Enerparc, filed for restructuring under self-administration at the Hamburg district court on Monday, days after Enerparc itself filed for insolvency. [27] The court ordered preliminary self-administration and appointed a general representative alongside a preliminary custodian acting for creditors. [27] Pvwerk builds solar plants and, more recently, battery storage. [27] It says it intends to finish around 100 solar and battery projects that Enerparc commissioned and that are currently under construction. [27]

    Why it matters — Around 100 half-built sites in Germany now depend on a court process rather than on their builder. [27]

  25. 26

    Congo moves to control the map of its own minerals

    The Democratic Republic of Congo plans to control access to a national geological databank it is building, which would extend state influence over where mining companies explore next. [28] The country is speeding up geological mapping, airborne surveys and the digitisation of old archives, and officials expect the databank to be fully working by the end of the year. [28] Its geological agency says only 20% of the country has been explored at all. [28] Congo is the world's largest cobalt producer, and its export curbs have lifted the price to around $26 a pound. [28]

    Why it matters — Congolese cobalt ends up in batteries everywhere, so whoever controls the survey data controls who gets to find the next deposit. [28]

  26. 27

    Venezuela does not know what it is sitting on

    Venezuela's mining sector is drawing interest from the Trump administration, and Reuters set out what is actually known about it. [36] A minerals catalogue Venezuela's government published in 2018 used the words reserves and resources interchangeably, which makes it impossible to tell how much can actually be produced at a profit. [36] A reserve is the amount that can be economically extracted; a resource is everything estimated to be in the ground, profitable or not. [36] In 2019 Venezuela's government announced a five-year mining plan intended to replace some oil income. [36]

    Why it matters — Congo is building the map of its minerals and Venezuela has never had a reliable one, and investors price the two very differently. [28][36]

  27. 28

    Nepal asks for $5bn after its floods

    Nepal will ask wealthier countries and international agencies for $5 billion towards the first stage of rebuilding after last month's deadly floods. [2] Its foreign minister, Shisir Khanal, said the disaster is exactly the kind of event the UN loss and damage fund was created to address. [2] That fund was set up to pay poorer countries for climate harm they did little to cause. [2] Nepalese officials are arguing the case on those grounds, that the country contributed almost nothing to the warming behind the flood. [2]

    Why it matters — Nepal is asking a fund that other governments pay into, so the answer comes from those governments rather than from any court. [2]

  28. 29

    Spain counted 61 heatwave days

    Mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands recorded 61 heatwave days in 2026, the most since Spanish records began in 1975, Reuters reported. [2] Four separate heatwaves hit over the summer, including a six-day run in early September. [2] That works out at roughly two days in every three with extremely high temperatures. [2] The most intense one lasted most of July, reached 37 provinces and ran 3.9C above normal; the July and August heatwaves, at 23 and 24 days, were the longest ever recorded there. [2]

    Why it matters — Two summer days in three were extremely hot, which makes the heat the ordinary Spanish summer rather than an event inside one. [2]

  29. 30

    Five UK biomass plants lose their subsidy

    Hundreds of jobs are to go at five small biomass power plants in the UK after the UK government decided to end their subsidies, The Times reported. [2] Biomass plants burn wood or plant waste to make electricity, and have been supported on the argument that the carbon coming out of the chimney is carbon the plants took in while growing. [2] Ending the payments removes the income those five sites were built around. [2]

    Why it matters — Every support scheme has an end date inside it, and the plants built on one close when it arrives. [2]

  30. 31

    Engineered crops held yields up through climate stress

    A study in Nature Climate Change examined four decades of genetically engineered crop planting across the United States and found the adoption broadly raised yields. [29] Corn and soybean yields were higher and swung around less from year to year, and some of the damage that heat and rainfall extremes do to a harvest was partly offset. [29] Genetically engineered crops are varieties whose DNA has been changed directly, usually for resistance to pests or to weedkillers. [29] The work is a national spatial analysis rather than a field trial. [29]

    Why it matters — Heat, heavy rain and pests are the three ways a warmer climate reaches a harvest, and this measures what the seed choice did to all three. [29]

  31. 32

    Microsoft wants 38 gigawatts of data centres

    Microsoft plans to build out its data centre capacity to about 38 gigawatts by 2032, more than triple what it runs today, Bloomberg News reported and Reuters carried on Thursday. [30] The plan is stated in gigawatts, which is a measure of electricity rather than of buildings or floor space. [30]

    Why it matters — Finland's parliament and the MISO grid states are both arguing this week about the electricity one company's buildings will draw, and this is the size of the request. [30][17][21]

  32. 33

    Hull starts laying heat pipes

    Work began this week on pipes under three streets in Hull, in northern England, as part of a district heat network. [31] The scheme will carry heat produced by burning waste at an energy centre on Trippett Street to buildings across the city. [31] Hull City Council says the work on Lowgate, Guildhall Road and Wilberforce Drive runs from 9 September to 11 October, and that the Lowgate car park closes for up to eight weeks. [31] A district heat network pipes hot water from one source to many buildings, instead of every building making its own heat. [31]

    Why it matters — This is what cutting the emissions from heating looks like at street level: closed roads, a car park shut for eight weeks, and one pipe at a time. [31]

  33. 34

    The EU sets China an early-October date

    The European Commission will seek commitments from China on their widening trade gap, and wants some initial action by early October, EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Tuesday. [32] China's trade surplus with the European Union reached 360.6 billion euros in 2025, a 15% rise on 2024, and widened another 9% in the first half of 2026. [32] Sefcovic said the talks have to cover Chinese export volumes, restrictions on EU exports, and China's curbs on the minerals the EU needs. [32] Batteries and electric and hybrid cars are among the goods driving the gap. [32]

    Why it matters — The goods in dispute include the batteries and electric cars Europe is relying on to cut its transport emissions. [32]

  34. 35

    Hefei shows the limits of the factory model

    Hefei, in China's Anhui province, is the showcase for a model in which local government money builds national technology champions, and its factories turn out electric cars, display panels and semiconductors. [33] A stock market listing by the memory chip maker CXMT is handing the city a large windfall on its state investments. [33] But Reuters found that incomes and household spending in Hefei have not kept up with the manufacturing boom. [33] Weak spending at home is part of why Chinese output is going abroad, which is what is raising trade tension. [33]

    Why it matters — The electric cars and chips the rest of the world buys cheaply come out of this model, and Reuters reports it is exporting harder because spending at home is weak. [33]

  35. 36

    Solid-state batteries leak while they sit

    Solid electrolytes were supposed to carry lithium ions while blocking electrons completely. [34] Two studies written up in Nature Energy show that the small amount of electronic conduction left in them can make solid-state batteries discharge themselves while sitting at rest. [34] The effect is worst in the thin cells a commercial product would actually use. [34] The papers set out the limits a material has to meet to hold its charge on a shelf. [34]

    Why it matters — Self-discharge is a shelf-life problem rather than a wear problem, and it is the kind of fault found late, once cells are made thin enough to sell. [34]

  36. 37

    A cleaner way to turn carbon dioxide into something useful

    Turning carbon dioxide into fuels or chemicals with electricity usually wastes much of the current on making hydrogen instead, because the two reactions are tied to the same step. [35] Researchers report in Nature Chemistry a palladium membrane electrode that separates them: hydrogen is made on one face, passes through the metal, and is handed to the carbon dioxide on the other face. [35] That let them make formate, a simple chemical building block, at high efficiency and mild voltages. [35]

    Why it matters — This is laboratory work on a small electrode. The paper measures how much of the current does useful work, not what a plant would charge for the product. [35]

02 Lesson why it matters

In a hurry, the world runs on whatever is already plugged in

When fuel suddenly gets dear, the electricity that fills the gap comes from plants that were already built and already wired up.

The twist

Nothing new can be built inside the months a shortage lasts, so the plant that answers it was chosen years earlier by whoever decided not to knock it down.

How it works

  1. A sea lane closes and gas gets expensive
  2. Power companies still owe the same electricity tomorrow
  3. Anything new takes years to build and to connect
  4. So they turn up the plants that are already standing and already wired
  5. The coal plants nobody had knocked down become the plan

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • TotalEnergies getting oil out of an Angolan field in three months

    the same step, in oil: the discovery reaches production in a quarter because there is spare room on a platform already anchored over the block

  • The Chinese state firm expanding a Brazilian dam

    310 megawatts get added to Sao Simao rather than to a new river, and the company says using what exists is the fastest way to add capacity

  • California's evening peak study

    the consultants counted substations that are already standing, and found a third of the 2032 evening peak could be served without new long-distance wires

  • The transmission line ordered in 2023

    the other half of the same chain: the MidAtlantic Resiliency Link has not reached its hearings after three years, which is the delay that keeps sending everyone back to existing equipment

Where you've seen this

Hospitals in a bad flu winter

they reopen a ward that was closed, because a new hospital takes eight years

Armies

a war is fought with the tanks in the shed, not the ones on order

Schools with too many pupils

the old huts at the back of the playground come back into use in September

The catch

Keeping the old plants standing is also what kept the lights on in Japan and Korea this year, and a country that had demolished them would have rationed power instead.

And the whole of it

Nobody decided to set a coal record this year. Each power company did the ordinary thing with the plants it had, and those plants were built decades ago by people who could not have known what this year would ask of them.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

The International Energy Agency expected the world to burn slightly less coal in 2026. It now expects a record 8.94 billion tonnes, because the war between the United States and Iran shut most Gulf shipping, gas got expensive, and countries with coal plants standing idle ran them instead. [1] Nobody built anything to cause this. The coal plants that set the record were already there.

Who gains

  • Coal miners and coal plant owners in Europe, Japan, Korea and China — The agency names those markets as the ones burning more coal than it expected, and a record 8.94 billion tonnes is a record year of sales for whoever digs and burns it. [1]
  • TotalEnergies — It turns a June discovery off Angola into production in three months, because it already owns a floating platform with spare room over the same block. [23]
  • Chinese carmakers — Exports passed 6.2 million passenger vehicles in eight months, beating all of 2025, as dearer petrol and diesel push more drivers towards electric cars. [15]
  • Refiners making diesel — With crude processing disrupted, refiners are putting their remaining capacity into diesel and other products that pay better, which is why fuel oil is short. [6]
  • Google — It has a nuclear supply deal in Finland, and it filed in support of a MISO rule that would cut its grid connection review to 90 days. [18][21]
  • Spiro and Chinese electric bike makers — Africa's imports of Chinese electric two-wheelers rose 60% to $114.6 million, and Spiro raised more than $348 million over the past year. [16]

Who pays

  • Anyone living downwind of a coal plant in Japan, Korea, China or Europe — The extra coal in the agency's forecast is burned in real power stations, and the agency names Europe, Japan, Korea and China as the markets where it happened. [1]
  • Shipowners and everyone buying goods that arrive by sea — The heavy fuel ships burn is up more than 70% since the war started, and Rystad expects supply to stay critically tight. [6]
  • Indian builders and carmakers — Coking coal costs are pushing Indian steel prices up, with hot-rolled coil already at a four-year high, just as post-monsoon demand returns. [11]
  • Volkswagen's workforce — The company has put about 16 billion euros against job cuts and possible plant closures, including roughly 50,000 more positions than previously planned. [25]
  • Households in the euro area — They are absorbing high energy costs, and the European Central Bank has raised its rate to 2.5% with more rises expected, so the same energy shock reaches their borrowing too. [10]
  • Creditors and workers at Pvwerk in Germany — The solar builder is in court-supervised restructuring days after its sister company Enerparc filed for insolvency, with around 100 projects half-built. [27]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    How much of the record is already burned and how much is forecast.

    The 8.94 billion tonne figure was published on 10 September, with nearly four months of 2026 still to run. It is a forecast, and the previous forecast for this year pointed the other way. [1]

  • 02

    How much oil is actually getting through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Kpler's ship-tracking put flows below 2 million barrels a day, with a daily moving average around 4 to 5 million; industry estimates put daily exports at 6 million to 8 million. Both figures were in circulation this week and neither can be checked independently. [4]

  • 03

    Whether coal demand falls or rises again in 2027.

    The agency says it depends entirely on whether liquefied gas shipping through the strait recovers, and it has not said which way it expects that to go. [1]

  • 04

    Where the electricity for Google's Finnish data centres comes from.

    The company announced 13 billion euros of building and a nuclear supply deal, opposition parties say the grid may not carry it, and Finland has no national permitting step that would settle the question. [17][18]

  • 05

    Whether Nepal gets any of the $5 billion it is asking for.

    The request goes to wealthier governments and to the UN loss and damage fund, and no government has said what it will contribute. [2]

  • 06

    Who pays for connecting very large customers to the MISO grid.

    MISO says a 90-day review is safe for customers that never push power back; the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council say the design could shift costs onto existing customers. Federal regulators have not ruled. [21]

  • 07

    How much clean hydrogen the $130 billion actually produces.

    The Hydrogen Council counts 570 committed projects and 6.9 million tonnes a year of capacity, and in the same report says developers keep scaling back and scrapping projects because production costs stayed high. [12]

  • 08

    How much can be mined in Venezuela at a profit.

    The government's own 2018 minerals catalogue used the words reserves and resources interchangeably, so the published numbers do not distinguish what is extractable from what is merely in the ground. [36]

  • 09

    Whether the MidAtlantic Resiliency Link gets built.

    PJM picked a builder in 2023, the route is still not final, four states are reviewing it, and a federal decision that could affect the project is outstanding. [20]

04 Hope carry this

Solar panels and batteries were 70% of all new electricity capacity built in the United States in the first half of 2026, and the country installed 11.4 gigawatts of solar in the second quarter alone, 45% more than a year earlier.

Also true today

  • Europeans bought 380,000 electric and plug-in cars in August, 36% more than in the same month last year.
  • Africa's imports of Chinese electric bikes and scooters rose 60% in the first half of the year, to $114.6 million. Morocco alone took 80,188 of them.
  • Work started this week on pipes under three streets in Hull, in northern England, that will carry heat from a waste-burning plant into buildings across the city.

Across the beats