Climate & Energy · Sunday, 27 September 2026
US diesel costs 76% more than a year ago, and the Trump administration is split over banning its export
Donald Trump says he backs stopping US diesel sales abroad before the 3 November elections. His energy secretary says a ban would make refineries cut output and push petrol prices up, and is asking refiners for voluntary limits instead.
$6.52
for a gallon of US diesel on Wednesday
up 73% from $3.77 just before the Iran war began, AAA says
1.5m
barrels of US diesel sold abroad each day this year
against about 4.1 million used at home, according to S&P Global
under 97m
barrels of diesel in US storage last week
about 13% below the usual level for the time of year over the last five years
284.6m
barrels of crude left in the US emergency oil store
the lowest since October 1982, as the US government releases 172 million barrels
The lead story — what happened
-
Diesel cost $6.52 a gallon in the US on Wednesday, 76% more than a year earlier, according to the motoring group AAA.
[4] -
Diesel fuels vehicles and backup generators.
[6] Its price squeezes trucking, farming and factories.[7] In the end it reaches groceries too, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the firm RSM.[6] -
Supplies are short because the Iran war has choked the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane out of the Gulf.
[6] Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries took another 800,000 to 1 million barrels a day of diesel off the market, says S&P Global, an energy data firm.[6] -
On Tuesday Donald Trump said he backed stopping diesel exports.
[2] Republicans in some of the closest election races had asked for it.[3] Its strongest champion is Chuck Grassley, a senator from the farming state of Iowa.[6] -
The US used about 4.1 million barrels of diesel a day this year and sold about 1.5 million a day abroad, according to S&P Global.
[6] -
Chris Wright, Trump's energy secretary, said on Wednesday that a ban would not work.
[4] If refineries cannot export diesel they run out of places to store it, he said, and must process less oil, which pushes up petrol and jet fuel prices.[4] -
The consultancy Wood Mackenzie says a ban would fill Gulf Coast storage tanks in just over a month.
[5] Refiners would then have to cut the oil they process by more than 2 million barrels a day, about 12%.[5] -
Doug Burgum, the US interior secretary, warned that countries which sell fuel to the US could hit back, hurting states such as California that import some of their energy.
[3] -
The Trump administration denied a report of a 90-day ban on Wednesday.
[5] Wright has also called executives at several big refiners to ask whether they would limit exports on their own, three people told Reuters.[5] -
The American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry's main US lobby group, and more than 30 business groups urged Trump on Wednesday to reject any limit on fuel exports.
[1] -
Europe is short of diesel and buys a lot from the US, so a ban would tighten its supply further.
[2] The profit European refiners make on diesel hit a record on Wednesday after Trump's comments.[3] -
Petrol averaged nearly $4.50 a gallon on Friday.
[9] Fears that fuel will keep prices rising pushed US 30-year mortgage rates above 7% by the end of the week.[9]
Who is involved
-
Donald Trump
the US president; he said on Tuesday that he backs a ban on diesel exports
-
Chris Wright
the US energy secretary; he says a ban would not work and is asking refiners to limit exports on their own
-
Doug Burgum
the US interior secretary; he warned that countries selling fuel to the US could retaliate
-
Chuck Grassley
a Republican senator from Iowa, a big farming state; the ban's strongest champion
-
American Petroleum Institute
the oil industry's main US lobby group; it led more than 30 groups asking Trump to reject any limit
How it unfolded
-
28 Feb the US and Israel attack Iran, and the war begins
[12] -
March the US waives a shipping law so Gulf Coast diesel can reach its own east and west coasts
[7] -
July Russia stops its diesel exports after Ukrainian drones cripple its refineries
[7] -
22 Sept Trump says he backs a ban on diesel exports
[2] -
23 Sept the Trump administration denies a 90-day ban plan, and Wright says a ban would not work
[3] -
3 Nov the US midterm elections
[4]
Where this points
Wright said the Trump administration would announce new policies in the coming days; the next test is whether they include any limit on exports, and whether Gulf Coast storage tanks start to fill.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
Iran still blocks most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump turned down its offer to reopen it on Saturday.
Republicans in close races pushed Trump towards a diesel export ban before the November elections.
India switched off clean power because its power lines were built too slowly.
A second US judge struck down New York's law making oil companies pay $75 billion for climate damage.
The rest of the day
15 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
-
02
Trump turns down Iran's Hormuz offer
The US and Iran held three hours of talks through go-betweens on Tuesday, their first in months.
[13] Iran then offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.[11] In return the US would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, drop sanctions on Iranian oil and agree a ceasefire that includes Lebanon.[11] On Saturday Donald Trump rejected the offer, saying Iran wanted a deal because it was 'losing so badly'.[11] Why it matters — About a fifth of the world's oil exports went through the strait before the war, and its closure is the main reason fuel is dear in the lead story.
[14] Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, says the go-betweens have not passed on any US answer, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump expects more bombing after the elections.[12] -
03
Missiles fired at Saudi Arabia's oil port city
The Houthis, an armed group that controls much of northern Yemen and is allied to Iran, said they fired dozens of missiles and drones at Saudi targets on Thursday.
[14] Saudi Arabia said it shot down six ballistic missiles.[14] It had issued emergency alerts for Mecca, Jeddah and Yanbu, its main oil port on the Red Sea.[14] Saudi Arabia said it stopped another Houthi missile early on Saturday, fired towards the city of Khamis Mushait.[11] Why it matters — Iran and its allies squeeze Saudi oil exports from two sides: the Houthis at the mouth of the Red Sea, and Iran at Hormuz.
[14] Iran's president said the Houthis are responsible for their own actions.[14] -
04
Drones set Moscow's refinery on fire
A Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow area, one of its largest, damaged the refinery at Kapotnya on the city's south-eastern edge and killed at least three people, local officials said.
[15] The refinery supplies a large share of Moscow's fuel, including diesel and aviation fuel.[15] It has been hit several times before.[15] On Monday queues formed again at petrol stations, which began rationing fuel.[15] Why it matters — Attacks on Russian refineries are one reason diesel is short around the world, the problem in the lead story.
[6] Trump says Ukraine's strikes are raising US diesel prices, while experts more often blame the Iran war, the Washington Post reports.[15] -
05
Libya's biggest oilfield pumps again
Libya's National Oil Corporation said on Saturday it had reopened the main pipeline from Sharara, the country's largest oilfield, to Zawiya on the coast.
[16] An armed group and members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard, the force that protects oil sites, had closed a valve on 21 September in a dispute over their status and pay.[16] The five-day shutdown cost 942,376 barrels of oil, worth about $95 million.[16] It also closed one unit at the Zawiya refinery, which supplies fuel inside Libya.[16] Why it matters — Sharara can pump about 300,000 barrels a day and has stopped many times over protests and political fights.
[16] The UN mission in Libya had warned that a long shutdown could threaten the country's fuel and electricity.[16] -
06
A second judge blocks New York's climate fund
Judge P. Kevin Castel of a US federal court in New York ruled on Wednesday that the state's climate superfund law is overridden by the US Clean Air Act and interferes in foreign affairs.
[17] The 2024 law would make fossil fuel companies pay $75 billion over 25 years into a fund for projects that protect New York from the effects of warming.[17] The US Justice Department and environment agency brought the case.[17] A different federal judge in New York made a similar ruling last month.[17] Why it matters — Vermont is the only other state with such a law, and a challenge to it is still in court.
[17] Several more states have proposed similar laws, so the rulings reach beyond New York.[17] -
07
A power company asks for a wildfire deal
Pedro Pizarro, head of Edison International, which owns the utility Southern California Edison, asked California's lawmakers this week to meet in a special session before the year ends.
[18] He wants limits on what power companies owe when their equipment starts a wildfire.[18] Southern California Edison's equipment is being investigated for starting the Eaton fire near Altadena in January 2025.[18] The Los Angeles fires that month killed more than two dozen people.[18] Why it matters — Lawmakers failed to agree a plan last month, and the ratings agency Fitch has cut its outlook on the company.
[18] Pizarro says the doubt is adding hundreds of millions of dollars to its borrowing costs, and only Governor Gavin Newsom can call the session.[18] -
08
India throws away clean power for want of wires
India now has 300 gigawatts of renewable power plants, 54% of all its capacity, against about 4 gigawatts a decade ago.
[19] Its power lines have not kept up: one in four projects between states is more than a year late.[19] Weak lines caused nearly two-thirds of the clean power India had to switch off in the first three months of 2026, 300 gigawatt-hours, the research group Ember says.[19] A solar farm takes 18 to 24 months to build, and lines take longer.[19] 4 GWIndia, a decade ago300 GWIndia, 2026India's renewable power plants, counted by how much they can produce at once, from the BBC's report. Why it matters — Ember calls this gap the biggest risk to India's goal of 500 gigawatts of clean power by 2030.
[19] Batteries could have stored the power for the evening, a researcher told the BBC, but many battery projects fell through when prices jumped.[19] -
09
Pakistan's rooftop solar drains its grid
Solar panels now make about a quarter of Pakistan's electricity in peak months, up from under 1% a decade ago, Jan Rosenow writes in an opinion piece for Yale Environment 360.
[20] Homes and businesses bought most of them without a big government subsidy, to escape dear and unreliable grid power.[20] Up to three-quarters of the country's solar may never have been officially recorded.[20] Sales of grid electricity fell 10% in 2023.[20] under 1%Pakistan, a decade agoabout 25%Pakistan, peak months nowSolar's share of Pakistan's electricity, as given in Jan Rosenow's piece for Yale Environment 360. Why it matters — The grid's wires and standby power plants still have to be paid for, so when richer customers leave, the cost is spread over fewer people.
[20] Poorer households that cannot buy panels can end up paying more, and Nigeria and Zambia show the same signs.[20] -
10
Nepal's floods: 5,644 people still missing
A month after floods swept through parts of Nepal on 26 August, the country's disaster agency says 1,453 bodies have been recovered and 5,644 people are still missing.
[21] Many are believed to be trapped in six tunnels dug for hydropower projects.[21] Only 112 bodies have been handed to families; 1,333 are buried for now until DNA tests can name them.[21] Nepal's government puts the cost of rebuilding at $4.77 billion, and about 7,500 homes were damaged or destroyed.[21] Why it matters — Prime Minister Balendra Shah told the UN General Assembly on Thursday that the floods were a warning to the world about climate risks in the Himalayas.
[21] He asked for more international help with the recovery.[21] -
11
Geothermal power needs desert water
Tech companies want geothermal power, made from the heat in deep rock, for data centres in the dry western US, because it runs day and night, Grist reports.
[22] Google agreed this month to buy 396 megawatts from Fervo Energy's Cape Station in Utah.[22] Most new geothermal methods pump water into hot rock, and Fervo's first commercial project, in Nevada, lost 30% of the water it injected.[22] Rough sums by Utah FORGE, a government geothermal lab, say 2 gigawatts made this way could use 42 million gallons a day.[22] Why it matters — That is about half of what Albuquerque, New Mexico's biggest city, uses each day, in a state in a drought that has lasted decades.
[22] Data centres already use water to keep their servers cool, so the two demands land on the same scarce supply.[22] -
12
Up to $2.1 billion of US money for a Texas reactor
X-energy, a nuclear start-up backed by Amazon, now has up to $2.1 billion of US government money for its first four small reactors, Canary Media reported this week.
[23] They are planned for a Dow Chemical plant in Seadrift, Texas.[23] The latest $1 billion was announced last month, after $1.2 billion in 2021, and the company matches each federal dollar.[23] The reactors would give Dow's plant both steam and electricity, cutting about 440,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas a year.[23] The US nuclear regulator is expected to approve construction in early 2027.[23] Why it matters — X-energy has not updated its 2023 cost estimate of $4.75 billion to $5.75 billion, and Dow will not decide to build before 2028.
[23] Its deals with Dow, Amazon and Centrica, a British energy company, add up to as many as 144 of its reactors.[23] -
13
A closed nuclear plant becomes an election issue
Indian Point, a nuclear plant on the Hudson River north of New York City, closed in 2021 and is being taken apart by its owner, Holtec International.
[24] In a close race for the US House, Republican Mike Lawler wants it reopened and took Energy Secretary Chris Wright to the site.[24] His Democratic challenger, Cait Conley, lists stopping that push as a priority.[24] Reopening would need five local and state bodies to agree, and three have said no.[24] Why it matters — After the plant closed, New York burned more gas and its power-sector emissions rose 22% from 2019 to 2022.
[24] About 20 million people live within 50 miles of the site.[24] -
14
Italy may sell part of its turbine maker to Gulf funds
CDP, Italy's state lender, is in talks to sell 15% to 35% of Ansaldo Energia to investors from the Gulf, including Mubadala, Abu Dhabi's state wealth fund, two sources told Reuters.
[25] Ansaldo, based in Genoa, makes gas and steam turbines, generators and nuclear technology.[25] Its orders rose 24% last year to 2.3 billion euros, and Reuters says it is gaining from the power demand of data centres.[25] Any deal would see Ansaldo help build gas power plants in the Gulf.[25] Why it matters — CDP owns 99.6% of Ansaldo and would keep control, one source said.
[25] Ansaldo already won a contract last year to supply four turbines for a 1-gigawatt power plant at Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates.[25] -
15
A US deal on faster permits slips past the elections
A group of US senators from both parties has been writing a bill to make energy projects faster to approve, Grist reports.
[26] It is expected to narrow the environmental checks government agencies must make and to make permits harder to challenge in court.[26] Politico reported that the senators now plan to finish it after the midterm elections.[26] Trump has signalled he would stop blocking wind and solar projects to win Democratic votes for it.[26] Why it matters — Solar farms and batteries make up almost 80% of the new US power plants expected this year.
[26] Gas was the biggest source of US electricity last year, and both industries want the bill.[26] Voters turn against it when it is described as helping data centres, a pollster, Alex Lundry, says.[26] -
16
Opposition stalls $170 billion of data centres
Local opposition has blocked, withdrawn or stalled more than $170 billion of AI data centres in the US since January 2024, the advisory firm Relae says, Utility Dive reports.
[27] Goldman Sachs, the US bank, expects data-centre power use to reach 66 gigawatts in 2027, but only about half of the capacity due in the next two years to arrive on time.[27] At a New York Times event this week, Justin Pearson, a Tennessee state lawmaker, said pollution from data centres' gas turbines and diesel generators is killing people in communities now.[28] Why it matters — Many utilities and regulators now ask big new users for deposits, minimum contracts and exit fees to weed out projects that will never be built.
[27] Texas has paused new data-centre connections while it checks its 474 gigawatts of requests.[27]
One barrel of crude makes diesel, petrol and jet fuel together
A refinery splits every barrel into several fuels at once, so it cannot make less diesel without making less petrol and jet fuel too.
The twist
A ban on diesel exports is meant to make diesel cheaper for Americans. Wood Mackenzie says it would instead force US refineries to cut the oil they process by about 12%, and petrol could then cost more.
The picture
How it works
- A refinery heats crude oil and splits it into several fuels at once: petrol, diesel, jet fuel and more
- US refineries make more diesel than the country uses, and sell the rest abroad
- Stop those sales, and the spare diesel goes into storage tanks
- When the tanks are full, the refinery has to process less crude
- Less crude means less petrol and jet fuel, not only less diesel
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
Drones set Moscow's refinery on fire
one refinery supplies Moscow with both diesel and aviation fuel, so one attack cut both at once and petrol stations began rationing
-
Up to $2.1 billion of US money for a Texas reactor
one reactor would make both steam and electricity for Dow's chemical plant, replacing old equipment that made both, so the two come and go together
Where you've seen this
Flour mills
milling wheat into white flour also produces bran, so more flour means more bran to sell
Town heating plants
a plant that makes electricity and hot water for homes cannot turn off one without losing the other
Copper mines
many copper mines also dig up gold and silver, so their output rises and falls with copper
The catch
The squeeze takes time. Until the storage tanks fill, which Wood Mackenzie puts at just over a month, a ban could lower diesel prices in the US, an economist told Reuters.
And the whole of it
A farmer in Iowa paying $6.52 a gallon, a driver buying petrol, a lorry firm in Europe and a worker at a Gulf Coast refinery all rely on the same barrels of crude. Each of them sees one price at one pump. None of them sees the storage tanks and the other fuels behind it.
What is really going on
The US sells about 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day abroad, and Republicans in close races want Trump to stop it before the 3 November elections.
Why it works on us — A ban sounds like keeping American fuel for Americans. The cost Wright describes comes about a month later, when the storage tanks are full and refineries cut back.
Who gains
-
US Gulf Coast refiners
— Strong demand abroad has brought them record export revenues, and so far no ban limits where they sell.
[1] -
Refiners in Europe
— The profit they make on each barrel of diesel hit a record the day after Trump backed a ban, because a ban would cut Europe's supply.
[3] -
The oil companies named in New York's climate law
— Two rulings mean they do not, for now, pay the $75 billion the law asked of them.
[17] -
X-energy
— The US government now covers half the cost of its first reactors, with up to $2.1 billion.
[23] -
Mubadala, Abu Dhabi's state wealth fund
— It is in the lead to buy into Ansaldo, a turbine maker whose orders rose 24% last year.
[25]
Who pays
-
US farmers and truckers
— Diesel costs $6.52 a gallon, 73% more than just before the Iran war.
[6] -
US drivers, if a ban comes
— Refineries that cannot sell diesel abroad would process less oil, which Wood Mackenzie says would push up petrol prices.
[1] -
New York's state budget
— The $75 billion the law would have raised for projects that protect the state from warming is blocked unless an appeal wins.
[17] -
Poorer grid customers in Pakistan
— As richer homes switch to their own solar, the grid's fixed costs are spread over the people who cannot afford panels.
[20] -
Southern California Edison
— Its chief executive says doubt over wildfire costs adds hundreds of millions of dollars to its borrowing.
[18] -
Families in Nepal
— Only 112 of 1,453 recovered bodies have been handed back, and about 7,500 homes were damaged or destroyed.
[21]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
Whether Trump will order any limit on diesel exports.
Wright said announcements would come in the coming days, and the Energy Department says Trump makes the final decision.
[4] [1] Publicly Wright says a ban would not work, yet Bloomberg reported he told oil industry leaders to brace for possible curbs.[10] -
02
What a voluntary limit would ask of refiners, and who would check it.
The people who described Wright's calls did not name the companies or say how any limit would be enforced.
[1] One industry source said enthusiasm was limited.[1] -
03
How low US diesel stocks really are.
Reuters puts them about 13% below the five-year average for the time of year.
[1] A Reuters columnist says they are about 13% below last year and the lowest for the season in more than four decades.[7] The two use different yardsticks. -
04
Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Trump says he rejected Iran's offer, but Iran's foreign minister says the mediators have not passed on any US answer.
[12] The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump expects more bombing after the elections.[12] -
05
How many of Nepal's 5,644 missing people are inside the hydropower tunnels.
The AP says many are believed trapped in six tunnels, but gives no number, and DNA checks on the dead will take at least a month.
[21] -
06
Whether New York appeals the rulings against its climate fund.
Two federal judges have now ruled against the law, and a separate challenge to Vermont's similar law is still in court.
[17] -
07
Whether California will limit what power companies pay for wildfires.
Only the governor can call the special session Edison wants, and its own chief executive says reaching a deal quickly could be hard.
[18] -
08
How much solar Pakistan really has.
Up to three-quarters of it may never have been officially recorded, so analysts use customs records and satellite pictures instead.
[20] -
09
Whether X-energy's first reactors will come in under its 2023 estimate.
The company has not updated its 2023 estimate of $4.75 billion to $5.75 billion, and says it faces the same rising costs as other power projects.
[23]
India now has 300 gigawatts of renewable power plants, 54% of all its capacity, and it reached that share five years ahead of its target. On a hot July afternoon, clean power briefly met more than half of India's peak demand.
Also true today
- Libya's biggest oilfield is pumping again. The pipeline from Sharara reopened on Saturday after five days shut, and oil is flowing back to the Zawiya refinery, which supplies fuel inside Libya.
- Solar panels now make about a quarter of Pakistan's electricity in peak months, up from less than 1% a decade ago. Homes and businesses put most of them up themselves, without a big government subsidy.
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