Under today's policies the world heads for 2.7C of warming, up from 2.6C, Climate Action Tracker says as COP31 meets

The stories

37 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   Under today's policies the world heads for 2.7C of warming, up from 2.6C, Climate Action Tracker says as COP31 meets

   2.7C

   of warming by 2100 under the policies countries have now

   up from 2.6C in last year's count [1]

   1.9C

   of warming even if every pledge and target is kept

   still above the 1.5C Paris limit [1]

   1.74C

   the forecast for 2027's global heat, with a record El Nino

   2026 is forecast at 1.52C [3]

   What happened

   • Under the policies now in place, the world is heading for 2.7C of warming by 2100. [1] That is the new count from Climate Action Tracker, a research group. [1]
   • A year ago the same group put the figure at 2.6C. [1]
   • Both are far above 1.5C, the limit countries agreed in Paris a decade ago. [1]
   • The report came out as COP31, the UN climate summit, meets in Antalya, Turkey. [1]
   • If every country kept every pledge and long-term target, warming would still reach 1.9C, the report says. [1]
   • Countries have often missed the targets they set, the Guardian reports. [1]
   • Governments are "simply not moving fast enough", said Sarah Heck, the report's lead author. [1]
   • She said the US, Canada and New Zealand are even slowing their climate action. [1]
   • The tracker also found that clean energy now gets double the investment of fossil fuels. [1]
   • Electric car use is soaring, the report adds. [1] Clearing of Brazil's Amazon forest has fallen sharply. [1]
   • This year's El Nino, a warming of the Pacific, may be the strongest in living memory. [3]
   • Forecasts put 2026 at 1.52C above pre-industrial times, and 2027 perhaps at 1.74C. [3]
   • That would make 2026 and 2027 the second and third years above 1.5C, after 2024. [3]

   Who is involved

   • US slowing
   • Canada slowing
   • New Zealand slowing
   • Climate Action Tracker a research group that checks countries' climate policies; it made the 2.7C count
   • Sarah Heck lead author of the tracker's report; she says governments are not moving fast enough
   • Hilda Heine president of the Marshall Islands, low Pacific islands; she warned leaders about overshoot
   • Mia Mottley prime minister of Barbados; she quoted the UN's own warming counts

   How it unfolded

   1. 2024 the first year above 1.5C [3]
   2. 2026 second
   3. 2027 third
   4. 9 Nov COP31 opens
   5. 20 Nov talks end, with a final text
   6. 2015 countries sign the Paris deal and its 1.5C goal [3]
   7. Last year the tracker counts 2.6C [1]
   8. This week the tracker counts 2.7C, as COP31 meets [1]

   Why it matters

   Hilda Heine, president of the Marshall Islands, told the summit overshoot means waves eating away her islands' shores. [2]

   Overshoot means warming passes 1.5C for a time. [2] The UN Environment Programme says it should be kept as brief and low as possible. [2]

   UN chief Antonio Guterres told leaders the world can still make the overshoot "a temporary breach". [7]

   How it works

   Climate modellers call each of these figures a scenario: a forecast built on one set of promises being kept.

   The tracker's 2.7C counts only policies countries already have. [1] Its 1.9C counts every pledge and target as if kept. [1]

   Seen it before

   A teacher guessing a final grade counts the homework handed in, not the homework promised.

   The truth

   • What is really going on At COP31, Climate Action Tracker counted 2.7C of warming on today's policies, and Carbon Brief found rich countries' climate-money pledges down by more than 70%. [1][6]
   • Barbados's prime minister, Mia Mottley, quoted UN counts: 2.6C if every pledge is kept, and 2.8C on current policies. [2]
   • Who pays The Marshall Islands — Overshoot means waves eating away their shores and floods destroying towns and schools, their president said. [2]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether 2026 and 2027 will stay above 1.5C after the El Nino ends.

     Daniel Swain thinks this may be the first year that does not dip back, while Zeke Hausfather would not be surprised if it falls below. [3]

   What comes next

   COP31 opened on 9 November [4] and runs until 20 November. [34] Its final text may admit warming will pass 1.5C for a while. [4]

1. 02

   Climate money pledges fall by 70%

   What happened

   • Rich countries' pledges of climate money for poorer ones have fallen by more than 70% in 2026. [6] Carbon Brief, a climate news site, did the count. [6]
   • Pledges now add up to $11.7bn a year, down from about $40bn. [6]
   • Most pledges ran out in 2025. [6] Of the 23 rich countries obliged to give, only 5 have made new ones. [6]
   • Britain is the only big giver with a new pledge. [6] Germany, France and Japan have set none. [6]
   • The US, once a big giver, will give no official climate money after leaving the Paris deal. [6]

   Why it matters

   Two years ago, rich countries agreed to lead a rise to $300bn a year by 2035. [6] Poorer countries at COP31 say they urgently need new money. [6]

   How it works

   Development economists call this aid predictability: a poorer country can only plan with money it knows is coming.

   Germany and France each pledged to reach EUR 6bn a year by 2025, and nothing after. [6] So poorer countries cannot tell what is coming, says Joe Thwaites of NRDC. [6]

   Seen it before

   A family cannot book a holiday when nobody knows if next month's pay will arrive.

   The truth

   • Britain's pledge looks bigger only because it now counts loans and guarantees, Carbon Brief says. [6]
   • Ursula von der Leyen, head of the EU's executive, said: "Europe is the world's largest provider of climate finance." [7]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Germany, France or Japan will make new climate-money pledges at COP31.

     None has set out plans, and the EU's climate chief said talk of new money is 'dead in the water'. [6]

   What comes next

   Poorer countries want COP31 to set up a work programme on climate money: a place to discuss raising it. [6]

1. 03

   Data centres plan their own gas plants

   What happened

   • Planned data centres in the US, Britain and Europe want to build 181 GW of their own gas power. [8] BloombergNEF, an energy research firm, counted it. [8]
   • That is almost four times the peak electricity demand of Great Britain. [8]
   • About 90% of these on-site plants are planned in the US. [8]
   • In the US alone, they would emit about 345m tonnes of greenhouse gases a year. [8] That is as much as about 72.8m petrol and diesel cars. [8]

   Who is involved

   John Healey, Britain's finance minister, now lets data centres run temporary gas plants while they wait for the grid. [8]

   • John Healey Britain's finance minister

   Why it matters

   The report came out as COP31 talks push for more electricity, ideally from clean sources. [8]

   How it works

   Grid engineers call it the connection queue: each new user waits its turn to be linked to the grid.

   Britain's planned data centres asked about gas links more than 100 times in 2024-25, because grid links were slow. [8]

   Seen it before

   A family that cannot get a bus for months buys a car, and then keeps on driving it.

   Why a gas plant built for now tends to run for decades

   Energy economists call it carbon lock-in: a plant's building cost is spent once, so it keeps running as long as its fuel pays.

   The twist

   Once a plant is built, the money spent on it no longer counts, so a plant called temporary keeps running for as long as its fuel pays.

   The picture

   Building the plantpaid once

   vsvs

   Running the plantpaid each day

   Step by step

   1. 1 A gas or coal plant is built
   2. 2 Its building cost is paid and gone
   3. 3 It runs whenever its fuel and staff cost less than its power earns
   4. 4 So it can keep running for decades
   5. 5 And its carbon keeps coming with it

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Data centres plan their own gas plants

     Developers call their 181 GW of on-site gas temporary, but BloombergNEF says that once the plants are running, the money may keep them going.

   • Coal plants near new data centres close later

     New demand nearby keeps an already-built coal plant earning, so it retires later and emits more carbon dioxide before it goes.

   • Georgia's new regulators target a gas plan

     Five new gas plants would run for decades, so critics say approving them now locks in their emissions and their cost to customers.

   • Banks turn from Australia's Browse gas plan

     Australia let the North West Shelf gas plant run 50 more years, and a plant with decades left needs new gas like Browse's to keep working.

   Where you've seen this

   Printers and ink

   once the printer is bought, its maker's ink is the easy way to keep printing

   Motorways

   a road already built makes driving the easy choice for the towns along it for decades

   Season tickets

   once paid for, each extra match costs only the bus fare, so fans keep going

   The catch

   Lock-in is not forever: a paid-for plant still closes once its fuel and upkeep cost more than its power earns.

   And the whole of it

   The developer, the regulator who signs the permit and the household paying the bill each choose sensibly from where they sit. Together they set how much carbon goes into the air in the 2050s, and most of us buy power from plants like these without ever being asked.

   The truth

   • Why it works on people Calling a gas plant temporary makes it sound short-lived, though BloombergNEF says the money may keep it running once it is built. [8]
   • Who gains Data-centre builders in Britain — Britain now lets them run gas plants on site while they wait for the grid, so they can open sooner. [8]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether data centres' temporary gas plants will close once the grid connects them.

     Developers say the plants are temporary, but BloombergNEF's Mark Daly says the economics may keep them running. [8]

1. 04

   Poland's Orlen cancels a Qatar gas deal

   What happened

   • Poland's Orlen, an energy company, has ended a long-term deal to buy liquefied gas from QatarEnergy. [9]
   • It is the first QatarEnergy customer to cancel, after missile strikes in March damaged Qatar's main gas plant. [9]
   • The deal was for 1 million tonnes a year until 2034, worth about EUR 570m this year. [9]

   Who is involved

   QatarEnergy supplied about a fifth of the world's liquefied gas before the war. [9]

   • QatarEnergy about a fifth of world supply before the war

   How it unfolded

   Since the strikes it has used force majeure every month. [9] Its latest notice runs to the end of the year. [9]

   1. March strikes damage Qatar's gas plant
   2. This week Orlen cancels
   3. This week notice given
   4. After 60 days the deal ends

   Why it matters

   Buyers in Europe and Asia have had to buy single cargoes instead, at their highest prices in years. [9]

   How it works

   Contract lawyers call this force majeure: an event beyond a seller's control lets it miss deliveries. [9]

   If the event lasts long enough, the buyer usually gains the right to walk away. [9] Orlen has now used that right. [9]

   Seen it before

   When a school bus stops coming for months, families stop paying for it and find another way.

   The truth

   • Orlen says Poland's gas supply is secure. [9] Poland has its own gas fields, and Orlen has signed deals for US gas. [9]
   • Who gains US gas projects such as Port Arthur and Plaquemines — Orlen signed deals with them after Qatar stopped delivering. [9]

   What comes next

   The cancelled deal stays in force for 60 days. [9]

2. 05

   Australia's leader skips fossil fuels in COP speech

   What happened

   • Anthony Albanese, Australia's prime minister, told COP31 governments have a "solemn responsibility" to act on climate. [10]
   • He did not mention fossil fuels. [10] A fifth of the world's exported liquefied gas comes from Australia. [10]
   • Moments before, UN chief Antonio Guterres said keeping 1.5C alive "means no new coal". [10]
   • Albanese pointed instead to renewables, which have doubled in six years to half of Australia's electricity. [10]

   Who is involved

   Australia co-hosts the summit with Turkey and leads the negotiations. [7]

   • Turkey host
   • Australia co-host, runs the talks

   Why it matters

   The Marshall Islands' president said every new oil well and coal mine threatens her country's future. [2]

   The truth

   • Bill Hare of Climate Analytics counts 38 fossil fuel projects approved by Albanese's government since 2022. [10] "It still seems to be a dirty word," he said. [10]
3. 06

   Coal plants near new data centres close later

   What happened

   • Coal plants near data centres built since 2020 are closing later, a study in Nature Climate Change finds. [11]
   • The link is strongest for the cleaner, more efficient coal plants. [11]
   • The authors estimate 937 such coal units will emit an extra 1.96bn tonnes of carbon dioxide before they close. [11]

   How it unfolded

   Until now nobody had measured this link with real data, the authors say. [11]

   Why it matters

   The authors say plans to reach net zero must now count the power data centres need. [11]

   How it works

   Statisticians call the method survival analysis: it measures how long things last before they end. [11]

   Each typical jump in nearby data centres goes with a coal plant life about 1.7% longer. [11]

   Seen it before

   A corner shop that gets a busy new office next door stays open years after it meant to close.

   New demand nearby keeps an already-built coal plant earning, so it retires later and emits more carbon dioxide before it goes.

   The idea, in story 03: Why a gas plant built for now tends to run for decades →

   The truth

   • What is really going on In the same week, BloombergNEF counted 181 GW of gas power planned on data-centre sites, and a study found coal plants near data centres closing later. [8][11]
   • That estimate runs from 1.01bn to 2.92bn tonnes, the paper says. [11]
   • Who gains Owners of coal plants near data centres — New demand nearby keeps their plants earning, so they are retired later. [11]
4. 07

   Attack leaves 10 million Iraqis without power

   What happened

   • Sunday's drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field left about 10 million Iraqis without power and cooking gas. [12] That is the estimate of Crescent Petroleum, which works there. [12]
   • Khor Mor lies in Iraq's Kurdish region. [12] The price of electricity more than doubled after the attack. [12]

   How it unfolded

   It was the 12th attack on the field, and among the worst, Crescent's chief Majid Jafar said. [12]

   Why it matters

   It hit just as the wider war seemed to be easing, which made it a shock, Jafar said. [12]

   The truth

   • Who pays Families in Iraq — They lost the gas they cook with, and paid more than double for electricity. [12]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Who attacked the Khor Mor gas field.

     Iraq's security chief raised a Kurdish group, a Kurdish minister called that nonsense, and the inquiry has not reported. [12]

   What comes next

   Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi has sent a committee to investigate. [12]

5. 08

   North America's first small reactor runs late

   What happened

   • Ontario Power Generation says its first small modular reactor will miss its October 2030 target. [13] It will also cost more than its budget of 7.7bn Canadian dollars. [13]
   • It makes 300 megawatts, far less than a big reactor. [13] It is Canada's first new nuclear build in over 30 years. [13]

   Who is involved

   The reactor, a BWRX-300 designed by GE Vernova Hitachi, is at Darlington, east of Toronto. [13]

   • GE Vernova Hitachi designed the BWRX-300
   • Ontario Power Generation is building it

   How it unfolded

   When the design was chosen in late 2021, the company said it could be finished as early as 2028. [13]

   The last two big US reactors, Vogtle 3 and 4, took 7 extra years and $17bn more than planned. [13]

   1. Late 2021 could be done by 2028
   2. Now not by October 2030
   3. This week the delay is announced
   4. Mid-2027 new cost and date

   Why it matters

   The Tennessee Valley Authority and the developer Blue Energy plan reactors of the same design in the US. [13]

   How it works

   Engineers call this a first-of-a-kind reactor: the first one ever built of a new design. [13]

   The company blames engineering still under way on the design, which slows building and suppliers. [13]

   Seen it before

   The first cake from a new recipe takes longest, because the cook is still working it out.

   The truth

   • The company has given no new date or cost. [13]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much Ontario's first small reactor will finally cost, and when it will run.

     Ontario Power Generation gave no new figures, and its review is due by mid-2027. [13]

   What comes next

   A new cost and schedule should be mostly done by mid-2027. [13]

6. 09

   Germany falls to 25th on a climate ranking

   What happened

   • Germany fell to 25th place in the Climate Change Performance Index, its worst since 2019. [14]
   • The index, made by the groups Germanwatch and NewClimate Institute, rates 64 countries and the EU. [14]
   • Denmark leads on all 4 parts: energy use, emissions, renewable energy and climate policy. [14]
   • The top 3 places were left empty again, because no country is doing enough. [14]
   • Hungary rose 21 places after Viktor Orban's government lost power. [14] The oil and gas states, the US among them, were rated very low. [14]

   Why it matters

   The authors blame German policies that push natural gas, led by economy minister Katherina Reiche. [14]

   How it works

   Analysts call this a composite index: several scores added together into one ranking.

   Germany's score on national climate policy was its worst ever, which pulled its place down. [14]

   Seen it before

   A pupil's average drops when one subject falls badly, even if the others hold steady.

   Good news

   • 15 countries, including Lithuania, Chile and Morocco, were rated high, 2 more than last year. [14]
7. 10

   African countries press for money to cope

   What happened

   • African countries want COP31 to say how the world will triple money to help them cope with extreme weather. [15]
   • This adaptation money pays for things like flood defences, drought-resistant crops and better water systems. [4]
   • Even tripled, it would cover only 20% to 29% of what poorer countries need, a UN report finds. [4]
   • The UN puts the need at about $305bn a year by 2035, against about $30bn available in 2024. [15]
   • A push to give it its own place on the summit agenda failed. [4]

   Why it matters

   Much of this money came from aid budgets, which are at their lowest since 2014. [15]

   How it works

   Climate policy splits the work in two: mitigation cuts the carbon, and adaptation copes with the harm.

   Adaptation pays for coping with harm already under way, which is why it is the urgent half for poorer countries. [4]

   Seen it before

   A family saves to fix a leaky roof, and still puts buckets out while it leaks.

   The truth

   • Kenya's climate envoy said new projects cannot be "entirely dependent on voluntary contributions". [15]
   • Who pays African countries hit by floods and drought — Less aid money means less for flood defences and drought-proof crops. [15]
8. 11

   A 12.8bn pound loan pack for Norfolk wind farms

   What happened

   • Vanguard East and West will make about 2.8 GW, enough for 3m homes, by 2030. [16]
   • They will borrow 12.8bn pounds from 35 banks, including 1bn pounds from Britain's state-owned National Wealth Fund. [17]
   • Building should start early next year, and RWE says it will support 2,300 jobs a year. [16]

   Who is involved

   RWE, a German power company, and KKR, a US investment firm, are building two wind farms off Norfolk, England. [16]

   • RWE German power company
   • KKR US investment firm

   How it unfolded

   RWE won the right to build them in January's renewables auction. [17]

   1. Early next year building starts
   2. 2030 power flows

   Why it matters

   Prime Minister Andy Burnham called it great news for bill payers: power "under British control". [16]

   How it works

   Energy economists call this a guaranteed price contract: the power's price is fixed for years before building starts.

   Britain's auction fixed their price at 91.20 pounds a megawatt-hour, in 2024 money, for 20 years. [17]

   Seen it before

   A paper round with a promised weekly wage is easier to plan around than one paid in tips.

   The truth

   • The wealth fund is meant to back only what would not happen without it. [17] Nils Pratley, a Guardian columnist, doubts these farms needed its money. [17]
   • Who gains RWE and KKR — The state fund's 1bn pounds spares them dearer borrowing that would cut their returns, Nils Pratley argues. [17]
9. 12

   Britain weighs cutting its electric car target

   What happened

   • British ministers meet on Thursday to decide whether to cut a target for electric car sales. [18]
   • The law says 80% of the cars each maker sells in 2030 must be electric. [18]
   • Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, wants 50%. [18] Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, wants about 60%. [18]
   • Louise Haigh, standing in for the prime minister, is likely to pick 60% to 65%, sources say. [18]

   How it unfolded

   Prime Minister Andy Burnham stepped aside over a possible conflict of interest. [18]

   1. Thursday ministers meet
   2. This month the decision

   Why it matters

   Labour MPs say cutting the target would be "shortsighted". [18]

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     What Britain's 2030 electric car target will become.

     Ministers meet on Thursday, and sources expect 60% to 65%, but nothing has been announced. [18]

   What comes next

   A final announcement is likely this month. [18]

10. 13

    Banks turn from Australia's Browse gas plan

    What happened

    • Woodside, Australia's big oil and gas company, wants to build Browse, a $30bn gas project off Western Australia. [19]
    • ANZ, a big Australian bank, said this week it will not directly fund new or expanded gas fields. [19]

    Who is involved

    Two other big Australian banks, the Commonwealth Bank and NAB, have similar rules. [19]

    • Commonwealth Bank no project money for new gas
    • NAB no direct loans for new fields

    How it unfolded

    The Iran war cut a fifth of the world's liquefied gas, which revived interest in Browse. [19]

    Last year Australia's government let the North West Shelf gas plant run 50 more years, ready to process Browse's gas. [19]

    1. Last year plant extended 50 years
    2. This week banks pull back

    Why it matters

    Elisa Leys of Solutions for Climate, a campaign group, says the project would add 1.6bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. [19]

    How it works

    Australia let the North West Shelf gas plant run 50 more years, and a plant with decades left needs new gas like Browse's to keep working.

    The idea, in story 03: Why a gas plant built for now tends to run for decades →

    The truth

    • Who gains Woodside and its Browse partners — The loss of Qatari gas has made Browse viable for the first time, analyst Saul Kavonic says. [19]
    • Nobody knows yet

      Whether Browse can raise the money to be built.

      Analyst Saul Kavonic says its backers can borrow abroad, Elisa Leys says the pool of lenders is shrinking, and Woodside says no decision has been made. [19]

    What comes next

    Woodside says Browse is still being designed and still needs state and federal approval. [19]

11. 14

    Georgia's new regulators target a gas plan

    What happened

    • Democrats won two seats on Georgia's Public Service Commission, the state body that regulates power companies. [20]
    • They now hold 3 of its 5 seats, ending 30 years of Republican control. [20]
    • In April Georgia Power asked for 2 GW to 6 GW more. [20] Critics fear most of it will be gas. [20]

    How it unfolded

    In December 2025 the commission approved nearly 10 GW of gas plants and batteries, mainly for planned data centres. [20]

    Its own staff had advised approving only about a third of that at first. [20]

    Why it matters

    Typical home bills from Georgia Power have risen 33%, over $500 a year, after 6 rate rises. [20]

    How it works

    Five new gas plants would run for decades, so critics say approving them now locks in their emissions and their cost to customers.

    The idea, in story 03: Why a gas plant built for now tends to run for decades →

    The truth

    • Commissioner Peter Hubbard's own study says solar, batteries and saving energy could meet demand for billions less. [20]
    • Who pays Georgia Power's customers — The 5 new gas plants could cost them $50bn to $60bn over their lives, the Southern Environmental Law Center estimates. [20]
    • Nobody knows yet

      How much of Georgia Power's gas plan the new commission will stop.

      All 3 Democrats oppose it, but it was approved in December 2025 and no new vote has been set. [20]

12. 15

    South Africa's heat made at least 5 times likelier

    What happened

    • Climate change made this week's heat in parts of South Africa at least 5 times more likely, Climate Central found. [21]
    • Climate Central is a climate science group. [21] Its index hit its highest level in Upington, Bloemfontein and Rustenburg. [21]
    • About 26 million people faced at least one day of extreme heat made likelier by warming. [21]
    • Temperatures of 36C to 40C were forecast in parts of the Northern and Western Cape. [21]

    Why it matters

    A very strong El Nino is also expected to bring drier summer weather to parts of the country. [21]

    How it works

    Climate Central measures this with its Climate Shift Index, which runs up to level 5. [21]

    Level 3 means warming made the heat at least 3 times likelier. [21] Level 5, reached in Upington, means at least 5 times. [21]

    Seen it before

    A dice loaded to roll more sixes still rolls other numbers, but sixes come up far more often.

    The truth

    • Forecaster Thokelo Chiloane said the heat cannot be put down to climate change alone. [21] The El Nino and the season play a part. [21]

    What comes next

    The South African Weather Service warned of a heatwave until Friday, and of extreme fire danger. [21]

13. 16

    Iran asks COP31 for war damage payments

    What happened

    • He named oil leaks from attacks on tankers, in a war that began in February. [7]
    • He called for nations "to document and assess the environmental damages" of war. [7]
    • He spoke during the summit's two-day meeting of world leaders. [7][5]

    Who is involved

    Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian asked COP31 for compensation for environmental damage from US and Israeli strikes. [7]

    • Masoud Pezeshkian Iran's president

    Why it matters

    Every money question at COP31 comes back to who pays, New Scientist reports. [4]

    How it works

    Environmental lawyers call it the polluter-pays principle: whoever causes the damage should pay to repair it.

    Iran wants the countries that struck it to pay for oil leaks from the attacks on tankers. [7]

    Seen it before

    A pupil who breaks a classroom window is the one asked to pay for the new glass.

    The truth

    • Iran has also struck tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, DW notes. [7] It has resisted strict words on ending oil and gas at past summits. [7]
14. 17

    Pakistan adds 22 GW of rooftop solar

    What happened

    • Pakistan added nearly 22 GW of rooftop solar in just 2 years, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told COP31. [22]
    • He called it "a quiet revolution by ordinary citizens" seeking affordable power. [22]
    • This year more than 1 in 10 motorcycles sold in Pakistan was electric, he said. [22]
    • Chashma-5, Pakistan's 7th nuclear power plant, will add 1,200 megawatts. [22]
    • He backed COP31's goal to make electricity 35% of all energy used by 2035. [22]

    Why it matters

    Sharif said Pakistan needs about $138bn by 2035 for low-carbon power, and $50bn more to replace coal. [22]

    How it works

    Energy researchers call power made where it is used distributed generation: panels on many roofs, not one big plant.

    Households bought the panels themselves, seeking power that is affordable and predictable. [22]

    Seen it before

    When every house on a street grows its own tomatoes, nobody waits for the shop's delivery.

15. 18

    Himalayas left off COP31's agenda

    What happened

    • A proposal by Nepal, Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan to put the Himalayas on COP31's formal agenda has failed. [23]
    • "Different major blocs did not support it," said Nepal's foreign minister, Shishir Khanal. [23]

    Who is involved

    • Nepal proposer
    • Bhutan proposer
    • Kyrgyzstan proposer

    How it unfolded

    In August, glacial lake floods hit the Nepal-China border, a UN report says. [23] A glacier collapse there set off a flood that killed more than 1,400 people. [7]

    Why it matters

    Nepal wants help to study its melting ice, and money to adapt and rebuild. [23]

    How it works

    Diplomats call a summit's formal agenda the list of topics it must negotiate.

    Off that list, the Himalayas get only a research dialogue at COP31, not a negotiation. [23]

    Seen it before

    A topic left off a school council's agenda can be chatted about, but nobody votes on it.

    The truth

    • A source said the European Union showed no interest. [23] Poorer countries did not block it. [23]

    What comes next

    COP31's hosts have promised mountain issues a place in the final text, Nepal says. [23]

16. 19

    Electric car sales jump in Europe

    What happened

    • Europe's sales of fully electric cars rose 49% in October from a year earlier, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence counts. [24]
    • In Germany, electric cars passed 45% of new car sales, the highest since December 2022. [24]
    • Portugal went further: 55% of new cars sold there in October were electric. [24]
    • Worldwide, drivers bought 2.09 million electric and plug-in hybrid cars in October, up 8%. [24]
    • China's sales fell 12% from a year ago, but their share hit a record, because car sales overall shrank faster. [24]

    Why it matters

    Europe's 36% rise in all electric and plug-in sales in October beats its 31% for the year so far. [24]

    The truth

    • North America's 24% rise is against October 2025, the first month after a US tax credit ended. [24]
17. 20

    US lithium mine's cost rises 31%

    What happened

    • Lithium Americas raised the cost estimate for its Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada by 31%, to $3.83bn. [25]
    • Labour costs for pipes, steel and equipment added $245m, and tariffs and transport $100m. [25]
    • Dear fuel and shipping problems pushed up transport costs. [25]
    • The company says the extra will come from its own money and US Energy Department loans. [25]

    Who is involved

    The mine is a joint venture with General Motors. [25] Its lithium carbonate is critical for electric cars. [25]

    • Lithium Americas runs the mine
    • General Motors its partner

    How it unfolded

    1. Late 2027 first phase built
    2. 2028 work rises

    Why it matters

    Silver Peak is the only working commercial lithium mine in the US, with about 1% of world output. [25]

    What comes next

    Building of the first phase is planned for late 2027, rising through 2028. [25]

18. 21

    Lula's win cheers COP31

    What happened

    • Lula called his win a defeat for "those who deny the evidence of science". [26]

    Who is involved

    Brazil's re-elected president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, got a hero's welcome at COP31 on Wednesday. [26]

    • Lula Brazil's president

    How it unfolded

    He beat the far-right challenger Flavio Bolsonaro last month. [26]

    Climate campaigners had feared Bolsonaro would undo forest protections, as his father had. [26]

    Why it matters

    Brazil hosted last year's COP, and diplomats hope Lula's government keeps its gains going. [26]

    The truth

    • Lula is also pushing to drill for more oil in the Amazon, Politico notes. [26]

    Good news

    • Under Lula, clearing of the Amazon rainforest has reached its lowest level in 40 years. [26]
19. 22

    Britain names a climate security envoy

    What happened

    • Britain has named the world's first special representative for climate security, the Guardian reports. [27]
    • Ed Miliband, Britain's foreign secretary, called climate breakdown "one of the greatest national security threats we face". [5]

    Who is involved

    Madeleine Alessandri, chair of the committee that oversees Britain's spy agencies, will take the job. [27]

    • Madeleine Alessandri chairs the Joint Intelligence Committee

    How it unfolded

    A secret UK report warned that collapsing ecosystems abroad could bring food shortages, migration and conflict. [27]

    Why it matters

    This summer was Britain's hottest on record, and thousands of people died early. [27]

    The truth

    • Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa called it "double standards", as Britain also approved the Jackdaw gas field. [27]
20. 23

    Forever chemicals fall in England's rivers

    What happened

    • Two of the most toxic forever chemicals, PFOS and PFOA, fell 30% and 29% in England's rivers over 10 years. [28]
    • They are called forever chemicals because they take a very long time to break down. [28] They were used in frying pans and fire foam. [28]
    • Levels in freshwater fish fell 49%, the Environment Agency, England's environment regulator, found. [28]

    How it unfolded

    PFOS was all but banned in the UK in 2010, and PFOA in 2020. [28]

    1. 2010 PFOS all but banned
    2. 2020 PFOA banned

    Why it matters

    The International Agency for Research on Cancer now lists PFOA as a cause of cancer in people. [29]

    How it works

    Chemists and the UN call these persistent pollutants: they stay in water and soil for many years. [29]

    PFOS was all but banned in 2010, yet it fell only 30% in 10 years, because it barely breaks down. [28]

    Seen it before

    Glitter spilled in a classroom is still turning up months after the last craft lesson.

    The truth

    • Newer forever chemicals used to replace them are now showing up in rivers, New Scientist reports. [29]

    Good news

    • Two of the most toxic forever chemicals, PFOS and PFOA, have fallen by 30% and 29% in England's rivers over ten years, and by 49% in freshwater fish.

    What comes next

    The EU is looking at banning all PFAS at once. [29] Britain has given no timetable for the same. [29]

21. 24

    Saudi Arabia seeks bids for 1.9 GW of solar

    What happened

    • The Saudi Power Procurement Company has opened the 8th round of the Saudi government's renewable power programme. [30] It seeks builders for 1.9 GW of solar. [30]
    • A 1 GW plant will be in Asir province. [30] A 900 MW one will be north of Riyadh. [30]
    • Winners will build, own and run the plants. [30]

    How it unfolded

    In the 6th round, the 1.4 GW Najran plant went for $0.0110 a kilowatt-hour. [30]

    1. This week the round opens
    2. 22 Nov pre-qualifying closes

    Why it matters

    The 2nd round set a record-low solar price of $0.0104 a kilowatt-hour, in April 2021. [30]

    What comes next

    Builders must pre-qualify by 22 November. [30]

22. 25

    Constellation offers nuclear-plus-batteries deals

    What happened

    • Constellation Energy, a US power company with nuclear plants, is offering big users a deal it calls Peak+. [31]
    • It pairs power from its existing plants with batteries and new power plants on its land. [31]
    • Its price is below the $110 to $130 a megawatt-hour of power from new gas plants, Constellation says. [31]

    Who is involved

    It is aimed at the biggest tech firms and other large power users. [31]

    • Big tech firms the main buyers

    How it unfolded

    Chief executive Joe Dominguez blamed delays, overruns and fuel-price risk facing new power plants. [31]

    Why it matters

    He also pointed to the election, which raises the chance of tougher US rules on carbon. [31]

23. 26

    Austria's solar grants gone in 29 seconds

    What happened

    • Austria's grants for small home solar ran out 29 seconds after opening on 8 October, its funding agency said. [32]
    • Of 41,322 applications, only 7,007 were approved. [32]
    • The grants cover up to 30% of the cost of panels and batteries. [32]
    • Grants for mid-size systems, of 10 kW to 20 kW, were gone in 18 seconds. [32]

    How it unfolded

    1. 8 Oct grants gone in seconds
    2. Next week a new law to parliament

    Why it matters

    The industry expects about 1 GW of new solar in 2026, down about 38%. [32] That would miss Austria's 1.1 GW yearly target for the first time. [32]

    How it works

    Economists call this a first-come, first-served rule: the money goes in order of arrival, not by need.

    Small systems were approved first-come, first-served, so a budget of EUR 30.5m went in 29 seconds. [32]

    Seen it before

    Concert tickets that sell out in seconds go to whoever clicks fastest, not whoever loves the band most.

    The truth

    • Who pays Small solar buyers in Austria — Anyone who applied after the first 29 seconds got no grant for a small system. [32]

    What comes next

    A law replacing the grants with a bonus for batteries goes to parliament next week. [32]

24. 27

    Rains lift Navajo Reservoir 60 feet

    What happened

    • Navajo Reservoir, in New Mexico and Colorado, rose nearly 60 feet between 20 September and 7 November, NASA says. [35]
    • It went from 60% of its usual level to 108%, its highest since August 2019. [35]
    • Rain from early September to early November was 2 to 4 times normal across the region. [35]

    How it unfolded

    Pagosa Springs, Colorado, flooded on 23 October and again on 1 November, nearly to its 1911 record. [35]

    1. 23 Oct major flood
    2. 1 Nov near the 1911 record

    Why it matters

    The rains ended short-term drought in the Southwest, the US Drought Monitor said on 3 November. [35]

    How it works

    Weather scientists call the jet stream the fast river of air high up that steers storms.

    El Nino tends to strengthen it near the equator, which can steer wet storms over the Southwest. [35]

    Seen it before

    A strong wind across a playground pushes every loose ball into the same corner.

    The truth

    • Long-term drought still holds in places, after a winter with little snow. [35]
25. 28

    Tiny animals found living on deep-sea nodules

    What happened

    • Small metal-rich rocks on the Pacific seabed are home to many tiny animals, a study in Scientific Reports found. [36]
    • These nodules hold metals like manganese and copper, wanted for batteries and solar panels. [36]
    • A single nodule held 17 animals on average, and some held hundreds. [36]
    • The rocks came from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, one of the parts of the Pacific miners most want. [36]
    • The US under Trump wants more deep-sea mining. [36] France has called for a ban. [36]

    Why it matters

    The authors say mining could cause an irreversible loss of unique, still unnamed species. [36]

    How it works

    Ecologists call such a place a habitat: the home a species needs to survive.

    Animals on nodules 1,000 km apart were more alike than those in the mud nearby. [36] So some species may need the nodules themselves. [36]

    Seen it before

    Barnacles grow on rocks, not sand, so taking the rocks away takes the barnacles too.

26. 29

    QuantumScape shows a fully solid battery cell

    What happened

    • QuantumScape, a battery maker in San Jose, California, says its new Osprey cell is fully solid, with no liquid inside. [37]
    • A test cell kept 80% of its capacity after 1,000 full charges at normal air pressure. [37]
    • Most rival solid cells, from firms like Toyota and Samsung SDI, need heavy clamping to work. [37]

    How it unfolded

    QuantumScape's current product, the QSE-5, still uses a liquid in one part. [37]

    Why it matters

    Samsung SDI aims to mass-produce such cells from late 2027. [37] Toyota aims for 2027 to 2028. [37]

    The truth

    • These are small, early lab cells, Electrek found. [37] The 5-minute fast charge was done at 80C, far hotter than car batteries usually run. [37]

    What comes next

    There is no date yet for Osprey, and the work is still at lab scale. [37]

27. 30

    50 Tesla electric lorries head for Chicago

    What happened

    • Tesla says Chicago's first 50 Semi electric lorries are on their way. [38]
    • HMD runs more than 650 lorries, almost all diesel. [38]
    • On a summer trial a Semi used 1.74 kWh a mile, in line with Tesla's 1.7 claim. [38]
    • The deal is worth about $15m, owner Henry Malukas told MotorTrend. [38]

    Who is involved

    Electrek says the only 50-lorry order tied to Chicago belongs to HMD Trucking, a family firm. [38]

    • HMD Trucking family-run Chicago haulier

    Why it matters

    HMD is putting in its own chargers, because Tesla's big chargers are mostly in the western US. [38]

    The truth

    • Tesla says its Nevada factory can build 50,000 Semis a year, but it does not publish deliveries. [38]
28. 31

    A German town plans a zinc-bromine battery

    What happened

    • Gaggenau's town power company, in south-west Germany, plans a 30 MWh battery that uses zinc and bromine. [39]
    • Its water-based liquid cannot burn, and it cannot overheat out of control, says Benjamin Henecka of Capac. [39]
    • It is built to last 25 years and lose only about 3.6% of its capacity, Henecka says. [39]
    • It costs EUR 15.2m, and will stand on the site of the town's old liquefied gas plant. [39]

    How it unfolded

    1. Next year building starts
    2. 2028 switched on

    Why it matters

    Henecka says the cheapest battery to buy is not always the cheapest over its whole life. [39]

    What comes next

    Building starts next year, and it should be switched on in 2028. [39]

29. 32

    Toyota and Subaru electric car sales double in the US

    What happened

    • Toyota and Subaru sold nearly 50,000 electric cars in the US in the first 9 months of 2026. [33] That is more than double a year before. [33]
    • Toyota alone sold nearly 35,000, up 183.4%, and Subaru sold 14,630, up 46.7%. [33]
    • Their electric SUVs cost about $35,000 to $45,000, the "sweet spot" of the US market, an industry analyst said. [33]
    • Toyota's bZ was the 4th best-selling electric car in the US through September. [33]

    How it unfolded

    Nearly every other carmaker sold fewer electric cars this year. [33] Buyers had rushed to claim a $7,500 tax credit before it ended last September. [33]

    Why it matters

    The average new car in the US cost a record $51,109 in October, so these models sit below it. [33]

30. 33

    Thunberg returns to COP and attacks lobbyists

    What happened

    • She called the summits hypocritical and "full of lobbyists" paid by polluting industries. [34]
    • She said host countries are given a chance to whitewash themselves. [34]
    • UN chief Antonio Guterres told leaders to tax the windfall profits oil and gas firms made from the Iran war. [2]
    • "Polluters must pay," he said, asking that the money help vulnerable countries recover. [2]
    • 91 national leaders came, but Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz did not. [2]

    Who is involved

    Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate campaigner, is at a COP summit for the first time since 2021. [34]

    • Greta Thunberg Swedish climate campaigner

    Why it matters

    Guterres stands down as UN chief next month, so this was one of his last speeches in the job. [2]

31. 34

    Gulf beaches reopen after a tanker spill

    What happened

    • Ras Al Khaimah, one of the UAE's emirates, has reopened 7 beaches after its worst oil spill in years. [40]
    • The oil leaked from a supertanker hit in a suspected Iranian drone attack in early October. [40]
    • Most beaches in Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah are still shut. [40]
    • A separate spill closed a beach at Khor Fakkan, on the UAE's east coast, on Monday. [40]

    Why it matters

    The coast from Sharjah to Ras Al Khaimah had been shut for nearly 3 weeks. [40]

    The truth

    • Experts warn that slicks and wreckage from ships and weapons will pollute the region for many years. [40]

    Good news

    • Ras Al Khaimah reopened seven beaches after cleaning up its worst oil spill in years.
32. 35

    Death Valley's rarest fish nearly doubles

    What happened

    • Divers counted 137 Devils Hole pupfish last month, nearly double the 77 counted in spring. [41]
    • The 2-inch blue fish live in a flooded cavern more than 500 feet deep in Death Valley, California. [41]
    • Conservationists added fish raised in captivity, and fed them shrimp and worms. [41]

    How it unfolded

    Earthquake waves in 2024 and 2025 had cut their numbers to fewer than 40. [41]

    Pumping of groundwater by nearby farms had already lowered the water in the cave. [41]

    Why it matters

    They are among the rarest fish on Earth and are listed as endangered. [41]

    Good news

    • Divers counted 137 Devils Hole pupfish in Death Valley last month, almost double the spring count, after earthquakes had left fewer than 40.
33. 36

    6m pounds to restore Scotland's rainforest

    What happened

    • A five-year project to restore Scotland's rare Atlantic rainforest has won almost 6m pounds from the National Lottery Heritage Fund. [42]
    • About 75,000 acres of rain-soaked woods on Scotland's west coast count as Atlantic rainforest. [42]
    • Local people will train in habitat work, deer control and removing invasive plants, in 3 hubs. [42]

    How it unfolded

    Overgrazing by deer and livestock, invasive plants and disease threaten what is left. [42]

    Why it matters

    A 2025 survey found fewer than 1 in 3 people even know the rainforest exists. [42]

34. 37

    US flood buyouts mostly pay for themselves

    What happened

    • A study in Science Advances finds FEMA, the US disaster agency, mostly recovers what it spends buying flood-risk homes. [43]
    • FEMA has spent over $6bn buying more than 53,000 properties since 1988. [43]
    • People bought out were about 20 percentage points more likely to move in the first 5 years. [43]

    Who is involved

    The study is by Rachel Young, an environmental economist at the University of Minnesota. [43]

    • Rachel Young environmental economist

    Why it matters

    Homes in poorer areas are worth less, so their owners get less money to move somewhere safer. [43]

    How it works

    Economists call this cost-benefit analysis: is the money spent less than the harm it prevents?

    One Houston home got 18 flood insurance payouts totalling $1.8m, about 15 times its value. [43]

    Seen it before

    Replacing a leaky bucket once costs less than mopping the floor every day.

    The truth

    • Average payments were $40,583 in majority-Black areas, against $93,977 in mostly white ones. [43]