Finance News · Thursday, 17 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

The US central bank raised rates for the first time since 2023, and 16 of 18 officials expect to raise again this year

The Federal Reserve lifted its main rate to 3.75-4% with no vote against, President Trump demanded 1% within hours, and central banks from Saudi Arabia to Hong Kong followed while Brazil cut.

3.75-4%

the new main US interest rate, raised by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday

the first rise since July 2023 [1][3]

16 of 18

US central bank officials who expect at least one more rise this year

in June the group had been split nine to nine [7][16]

3.4%

how fast US prices rose in the year to August

the monthly rise quadrupled from July to 0.4% [9]

2029

the year officials now expect US inflation to get back to 2%

prices have been above that goal for more than five years [7][9]

The lead story — what happened

The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, raised its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. [1][3]
It is the first rise since July 2023. Since then the Fed had cut six times, by 1.75 percentage points in all. [3][17] A month before the decision, traders had put the chance of a rise at 33%. [18]
All 12 voting officials backed the rise, although many investors had expected at least one vote against. [6] In July, three officials had voted for a rise and lost. [1]
Kevin Warsh, the Fed's chairman, said inflation is too high and has been for too long. [3][4] US prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, against the Fed's 2% goal. [9]
Officials now expect prices to rise 3.7% this year, a little more than they thought in June. They do not expect to reach 2% until 2029. [1][7]
16 of the 18 officials who gave a forecast expect at least one more rise this year, and four of them expect two. [1][2] Warsh gave no forecast, as in June. [7] He has long said such forecasts make it harder to change course. [8]
Officials expect the US economy to grow 2.3% this year and unemployment to stay at 4.1%. [7] Warsh said US jobs are holding up, so the Fed can put its attention on prices. [14]
Hours later, President Trump, who picked Warsh in January, wrote that US interest rates should be 1% or less. [4][11]
Trump said he had told Warsh to vote with the rest of the board, and repeated a threat to cut off trade with countries the US buys more from than it sells to. [4][12]
Warsh would not discuss Trump. He said the Fed's independence works both ways: it stays out of trade and tax policy, and others stay out of rates. [2][11]
The Dow Jones index of 30 big US companies fell more than 630 points, or 1.2%. [20] The two-year US government borrowing rate, which follows Fed expectations most closely, rose to 4.725%. [5]
Jeff Gundlach, a well-known US bond investor, said the Fed should have raised by half a point instead. [10]
For US households, a rise like this slowly makes credit cards, car loans and new mortgages dearer, and pays savers a little more. [9][19] One quarter point on its own changes monthly bills very little. [9]

Who is involved

Kevin Warsh

chairman of the US central bank, picked by Trump in January; he led a rise that Trump did not want
Donald Trump

the US president; he demanded rates of 1% or less within hours of the decision
The Federal Open Market Committee

the 12 US central bank officials who vote on rates; all 12 voted for the rise
Goldman Sachs

a big US investment bank; it now expects another rise in October

How it unfolded

July 2023 the US central bank's last rise before this one [1]
July 2026 three officials vote for a rise and lose [1]
28 August Warsh signals a rise at a yearly meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming [1][2]
16 September a quarter-point rise to 3.75-4%, with no vote against [1][6]
October the next meeting; futures give about even odds of another rise [21][22]

Where this points

The next test is whether US prices slow before the October meeting, where traders now put the chance of a second rise at about one in two. [21][22]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Fuel costing more High→

US diesel, the fuel lorries run on, hit a record $6.31 a gallon on Wednesday. [15] American Airlines said higher fuel adds about $1 billion to its costs for October to December. [41] Truck firm J.B. Hunt blamed record diesel prices for a fall in profit. [42]

Borrowing costs climbing worldwide Building↑

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain raised rates within hours of the US. [23] Hong Kong raised its rate for the first time since July 2023. [24] Japan's central bank is expected to raise its rate to a 31-year high on Friday. [25]

The dollar getting stronger Building↑

The dollar had its biggest one-day gain in three months against other major currencies. [22] The euro fell near a seven-week low of $1.1456. [25] Hong Kong's central bank said its own currency may slide towards the weak end of its allowed range. [24]

Shoppers still spending Steady→

US shop sales jumped 1.2% in August, the most since March. [45] Americans' total wealth rose by $12.8 trillion in April to June, mostly from shares. [46] United Airlines called its bookings for the end of the year tremendously strong. [41]

The rest of the day

23 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Goldman Sachs now expects a second rise in October

Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest US investment banks, now expects the US central bank to raise rates again in October. [21] Until Wednesday it had said September would be the last rise. [21] Bank of America already expects rises in October and December. [21] Traders in rate futures, contracts that bet on where the rate will be, put the chance of an October rise at about one in two. [21][22] The chance of half a point more by December rose to 38%, from 10% a week earlier. [13]

Why it matters — Each extra rise lands on US borrowers whose loans follow the US central bank's rate, such as credit cards. It also decides how far the dollar and US borrowing costs keep climbing.
03
Five Gulf states raise rates behind the US

Saudi Arabia raised its main rate by a quarter point to 4.50% on Wednesday, hours after the US. [23] The UAE, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain did the same. [23] Most Gulf currencies are fixed to the US dollar, so their central banks usually copy US rate moves. [23] Kuwait, whose currency is tied to a basket of currencies, kept its rate. [23] Most Gulf economies were already expected to shrink this year, after the Iran war disrupted oil shipping and tourism. [23]

Why it matters — Gulf businesses and home buyers will now pay more to borrow. That comes in a year when their economies are expected to shrink.
04
Hong Kong raises its rate for the first time since 2023

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which acts as the city's central bank, raised its base rate by a quarter point to 4.25% on Thursday. [24] Hong Kong's dollar is fixed between 7.75 and 7.85 to the US dollar, so its rates follow US rates. [24] Eddie Yue, its chief executive, said the gap with US rates will widen. [24] He said the Hong Kong dollar may slide towards the weak end of its range. [24] Hong Kong's main share index fell 0.7% on Thursday morning. [22]

Why it matters — Hong Kong's banks now decide how much of the rise to pass on to the rates they charge, the monetary authority said. [24] A decision taken in the US reached the city within a day.
05
The dollar hits a seven-week high

The US dollar rose 0.7% against other major currencies on Wednesday, its biggest daily gain in three months. [22] It reached its strongest level since 31 July. [25] The euro fell to $1.1456, near a seven-week low. [25] Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise its rate to a 31-year high on Friday. [25] Gold rose 0.7% on Thursday to $4,293 an ounce, after a similar fall the day before. [22]

Why it matters — A stronger dollar makes oil, which is priced in dollars, dearer for countries that pay in other currencies. It also makes dollar loans harder to repay for firms and governments abroad.
06
Brazil cuts rates for a fifth meeting in a row

Brazil's central bank cut its main rate, the Selic, from 14% to 13.75% on Wednesday, the same day the US raised. [26][28] It has cut a quarter point at each meeting since March. [26] Earlier that day, a central bank index showed Brazil's economy shrank 0.2% in July. [27] That was the second monthly fall in a row, after a 0.9% drop in June. [27] Once rising prices are counted, Brazil's interest rates are still among the highest in the world. [27]

Why it matters — Brazilian families and firms pay some of the steepest borrowing costs among big economies, and the economy has shrunk two months running. [26][27] The next decision comes in early November, days after a close presidential run-off vote. [26]
07
UK prices rise 3.1% before the Bank of England decides

UK consumer prices rose 3.1% in the year to August, the fastest since March. [31] Petrol and diesel cost 23% more than a year earlier. [29] Prices without food and energy rose 2.6%, the same for a fourth month. [31] The Bank of England decides on Thursday and is expected to hold its rate at 3.75%. [30] Investors put the chance of a rise in November at about 80%. [30]

Why it matters — The UK buys much of its energy abroad, so the war-driven fuel rise feeds its prices quickly. [29] Europe's central bank raised rates last week and the US on Wednesday, so a hold would leave the UK apart from both. [29]
08
Oil falls on signs Saudi exports can restart

Brent crude, the global oil price, fell 2.7% on Wednesday to $105.83 a barrel, and fell again on Thursday morning to about $104.80. [37][32][33] US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was temporary and it would restart within days. [37] Bloomberg reported the Saudis want it running at half its size within days. [34] Saudi Arabia is also loading oil onto tankers off Oman's Sohar port instead. [32] Independent analysts said satellite pictures show damage that could last weeks. [37]

Why it matters — The pipeline carries up to 7 million barrels a day and became Saudi Arabia's main export route after Iran blocked most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. [32][35][38] Brent is still about 20% higher than a month ago. [36]
09
Poland's Orlen buys 16 cargoes to replace Saudi oil

Orlen, Poland's oil refining company, bought 16 extra shiploads of crude to cover a gap left by Saudi Arabia. [39] Saudi Aramco, which has supplied about 40% of Orlen's oil since 2022, cancelled some late-September cargoes to European buyers. [39] The new oil comes from Norway, Britain, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and the Americas. [39] Reuters estimates the cost at close to $1.5 billion, with physical oil near $130 a barrel. [39] Orlen asked for more offers on Wednesday. [39]

Why it matters — It shows the Saudi pipeline outage reaching European fuel supply, not only Asian buyers. Refiners that cannot find replacement barrels this quickly pay more or run short.
10
Brazil's cheap diesel scares off importers

Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, is selling diesel 3.89 reais a litre below the price of importing it, a record gap. [40] It has held prices down to curb inflation before October's election, in which President Lula is running again. [40] Independent importers are now delaying purchases because they would sell at a loss. [40] Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul, a southern farm state, report delayed diesel deliveries as summer planting begins. [40] The fuel regulator says deliveries are normal. [40]

Why it matters — Farmers need diesel for tractors during the few weeks of planting. Brazil's own diesel output has already reached its limit, so fewer imports leave less fuel to go round. [40]
11
American and United cut flights as fuel climbs

American Airlines said the latest rise in jet fuel adds about $1 billion to its costs for October to December. [41] Its finance chief said fuel is about $1 a gallon above July's plan, and each cent adds about $10 million a quarter. [41] United Airlines said some flights planned for December will no longer run. [41] Both said demand is still strong, and American expects revenue to rise 16% to 19% this quarter. [41]

Why it matters — Fewer flights and higher fares are how airlines pass the fuel bill to travellers. United said long-lasting high fuel could put more pressure on weaker carriers. [41]
12
J.B. Hunt warns its profit will fall

J.B. Hunt, a big US trucking and delivery company, said profit for July to September will be 5% to 10% lower than the quarter before. [42] Analysts had expected a 12% rise. [43] Its finance chief blamed about $25 million of hiring and training costs, plus at least $10 million from record diesel prices. [42] The shares fell more than 10% on Wednesday. [42][44] They had nearly doubled over the past year. [42]

Why it matters — Trucking costs feed into the price of almost everything sold in shops. An index of US transport shares fell 2% to its lowest since 1 June. [15]
13
US shop sales jump 1.2% in August

US retail sales, a measure of what shops, websites and restaurants sell, rose 1.2% in August, the most since March. [45] Sales without cars, petrol and building materials rose 1.4%, the most since September 2024. [45] Part of the rise came from higher petrol prices. [45] A separate report showed prices of goods brought into the US rose 7.0% in a year, the fastest since August 2022. [45] Economists said the two reports made the case for Wednesday's rate rise. [45]

Why it matters — Strong spending tells the US central bank that higher rates are not yet slowing the economy. Rising import prices, pushed partly by AI equipment, point to faster price rises ahead. [45]
14
Americans' wealth hits a record, mostly in shares

US household wealth rose $12.8 trillion in April to June, to a record $196 trillion, US central bank figures show. [46] $10.7 trillion of the rise came from shares. [46] The richest 10% of households own more than 87% of all shares. [46] US pay grew 3.1% in the year to August, the slowest in four years and less than prices rose. [46] Fund managers surveyed by Bank of America now name a fast rise in bond rates as the biggest risk to shares. [47]

Why it matters — Spending by better-off households is holding the US economy up while pay falls behind prices. So a big fall in shares could hit shops and jobs harder than past falls did. [46]
15
US shares get cheaper without a crash

The S&P 500, an index of 500 big US companies, now costs 19.1 times the profit its companies are expected to make next year. [48] Last October it cost 22.9 times, the highest since 2000. [48] Profits grew faster than share prices, so the measure fell without a big drop in prices. [48] The index is still up 12.8% since that peak. [48] Shares now offer the smallest extra return over US government bonds since 2002. [49]

Why it matters — When a safe government bond pays 5%, investors ask more of riskier shares. Shares now make up a record 48% of what US households hold in savings and investments. [47]
16
Insurance against AI giants' debts costs more

Apollo, a big US investment firm, warned on Wednesday about the debt of the cloud giants that build AI data centres. [50] The price of insurance against those firms failing to repay has risen about 0.6 points above the same insurance on banks. [50] Last October the two cost the same. [50] Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are each expected to spend about $26 billion to $30 billion more cash than they take in. [50] Microsoft is expected to take in $33.4 billion more than it spends. [50]

Why it matters — These companies borrow heavily to build data centres, and insuring their debt now costs more. One technology analyst said their profit margins are improving and it is too soon to worry. [50]
17
Robotaxi firm May Mobility plans a $1.4 billion listing

May Mobility, a driverless ride-hailing technology company, agreed to list on the Nasdaq exchange through a $1.4 billion deal. [51] It will merge with ACP Holdings Acquisition, a shell company that raised money on the stock market in order to buy a private firm. [51] The deal could raise up to $337 million. [51] May Mobility says it has given more than 550,000 paid driverless rides in the US and Japan. [51]

Why it matters — Listings through shell companies are coming back after years of few deals. [51] May Mobility has raised about $445 million from private investors since 2017. [51]
18
Cohere and Aleph Alpha combine

Cohere, a Canadian AI company, and Aleph Alpha, once called Germany's AI champion, confirmed their merger on Wednesday. [53] The combined firm keeps the Cohere name, with headquarters in Toronto and Berlin. [53] The deal was valued at about $20 billion when first disclosed in April. [53] Schwarz Group, which owns the supermarket chain Lidl, is investing 500 million euros and will supply computing power. [53] Cohere reports $240 million a year in recurring revenue. [53]

Why it matters — Cohere sells AI that runs inside a customer's own computers and follows local rules, which governments and big firms are asking for. [53] The deal still needs approval from regulators. [53]
19
Unilever refuses a worldwide job guarantee

Unilever, the owner of Knorr and Hellmann's, has a $65 billion agreement with McCormick, a US spice maker. [54] It is the biggest food industry deal since Kraft and Heinz merged in 2015. [54] The IUF, a global federation of food workers' unions, asked Unilever for a two-year job guarantee for its workers everywhere. [54] It says Unilever will discuss that only in Europe, and wants other regions to bargain locally. [54]

Why it matters — Emerging markets made 53% of Unilever's food sales last year, while Europe made 30%. [54] So most of the food business sits outside the region where Unilever is offering the guarantee talks.
20
Sword agrees to buy Headspace

Sword, a health company that uses AI alongside human clinicians, agreed to buy Headspace, the mental health app. [52] Headspace says it has reached 100 million people in 200 countries and regions. [52] More than 20,000 employers offer it to their staff. [52] Sword says it has treated over one million people with its AI care service. [52] Neither company said how much Sword is paying. [52]

Why it matters — Employers and health insurers such as Cigna and Kaiser Permanente already pay for Headspace for their members. [52] The deal puts that brand inside a company that sells AI-led care.
21
SK Hynix in talks to make memory chips in the US

SK Hynix, a South Korean maker of memory chips, is in talks with Intel, the US chipmaker, to make memory chips on US soil for the first time, Reuters reported. [15] Three people familiar with the talks were the source. [15] Shares of both companies rose more than 2.5% before trading opened on Wednesday. [44] SK Hynix said no decision has been made on any partnership. [44]

Why it matters — AI data centres need memory chips in huge numbers. A deal would put some of that supply in US factories for the first time. [15]
22
Amazon deal lifts Generac 30%

Generac, a US maker of backup power generators, rose more than 30% in trading after the market closed on Wednesday. [20] It will supply Amazon with backup generators for its data centres. [20] As part of the deal, Amazon received rights to buy up to $340 million of Generac shares. [20]

Why it matters — Data centres need backup power, so money spent on AI now reaches makers of ordinary electrical equipment. [20]
23
Dollarama beats forecasts and raises its outlook

Dollarama, a Canadian discount store chain, said sales rose 17.6% to $2.02 billion in its latest quarter. [55] Sales at Canadian stores open at least a year rose 5.4%, helped by more shoppers and bigger baskets. [55] It raised its forecast for store sales and new store openings. [55] Its Australian business still weighs on profit. [55] The shares rose 3.5% before trading opened. [55]

Why it matters — Dollarama keeps gaining from demand for low-priced essentials while household budgets are under pressure. [55]
24
LuxExperience says its rescue is working

LuxExperience, which owns the luxury fashion websites Mytheresa, Net-a-Porter and Yoox, lost more than analysts expected in its last quarter. [56] But sales of $664 million beat forecasts, and the shares rose 17% before trading opened. [56] It bought the struggling Net-a-Porter group less than 15 months ago. [56] Its yearly earnings before interest, tax and write-downs turned slightly positive, and it has no bank debt. [56]

Why it matters — Yoox, one of its three websites, still loses money, so the rescue is not finished. [56] It expects sales to grow by mid to high single digits next year. [56]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a 4% interest rate can still be cheap money

A loan is paid back in money that buys less each year prices rise, so what borrowing really costs is the rate minus how fast prices rise.

The twist

A 4% loan sounds dear, but when prices rise 3.4% a year the money the borrower pays back buys only about 0.6% more than the money they borrowed.

How it works

A loan is paid back later, in money that buys less if prices have risen
So the real cost of borrowing is the interest rate minus how fast prices rise
In the US the rate is about 4% and prices rise 3.4% a year, so borrowing costs less than 1% a year once price rises are taken off
Borrowing that cheap does little to stop people and firms spending
So a central bank fighting prices keeps raising until the rate sits clearly above inflation

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

US shop sales jump 1.2% in August

With borrowing costing less than a point after price rises, US shoppers kept spending, and the US central bank read that as a reason to raise again.
Brazil cuts rates for a fifth meeting in a row

Brazil's rate of 13.75% is far above its price rises, so borrowing really is expensive there, the economy shrank two months running, and the bank cut.
UK prices rise 3.1% before the Bank of England decides

The Bank of England's 3.75% rate is less than a point above UK price rises of 3.1%, which is why investors expect a rise by November.
Americans' wealth hits a record, mostly in shares

US pay grew 3.1% while prices rose 3.4%, so once price rises are counted a worker's pay buys slightly less than a year ago.

Where you've seen this

Savings accounts

a 4% interest payment in a year when prices rise 5% leaves the saver able to buy less than before

Old government debts

years of fast price rises shrink what a country owes, measured in what the money buys

Fixed rents

a rent frozen for three years costs the tenant less each year that prices rise

The catch

Nobody knows next year's price rises on the day a loan is signed. So the real cost is a guess, and it only becomes clear years later.

And the whole of it

A family paying 4% on a US car loan gains a little each year prices rise faster than expected. A pensioner earning 4% on savings loses a little in the same year, and neither of them sets the rate or the prices.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Kevin Warsh, the US central bank chairman President Trump picked in January, raised rates with no vote against, and Trump demanded 1% within hours. [3][4][11] By Thursday morning Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Hong Kong had raised their rates too, because their currencies are fixed to the dollar. Brazil, whose economy has shrunk for two months, cut its rate the same day. [23][24][26][27]

Who gains

Savers with money in US bank accounts — Interest paid on savings tends to follow the US central bank's rate up, so a rise pays them a little more. [9]
Oil producers in Norway, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan — Orlen turned to their crude after Saudi Aramco cancelled cargoes, at physical prices near $130 a barrel. [39]
American and United Airlines on the routes they keep — Cutting weaker flights while demand stays strong lets them charge higher fares, and American expects revenue up 16% to 19% this quarter. [41]
The richest 10% of US households — They own more than 87% of shares, and shares drove a $10.7 trillion rise in household wealth in April to June. [46]
Schwarz Group, the owner of Lidl — It is investing 500 million euros in the merged Cohere and will supply the computing power the company runs on. [53]

Who pays

US households with credit card debt — Card rates follow the US central bank's rate, so the balance they already owe costs more each month. [9]
Borrowers in Hong Kong and the Gulf — Their rates rose because of US inflation, not their own, and most Gulf economies were already expected to shrink this year. [23][24]
US workers — Pay rose 3.1% in the year to August while prices rose 3.4%, so their pay buys a little less than a year ago. [9][46]
Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul — Importers are holding back diesel because Petrobras sells below the import price, just as summer planting begins. [40]
Unilever food workers outside Europe — Unilever will discuss a two-year job guarantee in Europe only, while 53% of its food sales come from emerging markets. [54]
Air travellers booked on United's December flights — Some of those flights will no longer run because fuel made them unprofitable. [41]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

Whether the US central bank raises again in October.

Warsh is opposed to signalling future moves and submitted no forecast. [4][7] Goldman Sachs now expects an October rise, and traders put the odds at about one in two. [21][22]
02

How long the Saudi East-West pipeline stays shut.

The US energy secretary said the damage is temporary and the line restarts within days. Independent analysts reading satellite pictures said it could take weeks. [37]
03

Whether Trump acts on his threat to cut off trade over interest rates.

He repeated it on Wednesday but set no date and named no countries. [12]
04

What the Bank of England decides on Thursday.

The decision had not been announced when this edition was written. Economists expect a hold, and investors expect a rise by November. [30]
05

Whether the cloud giants can carry their AI borrowing.

Insurance against their debts not being repaid now costs more than the same insurance on banks. [50] A technology analyst at Freedom Capital Markets says their profit margins are improving and it is too early to judge. [50]
06

How far J.B. Hunt's shares actually fell.

CNBC reported a fall of more than 10%, and Investing.com 12.7%. [42][43] The two reports give different figures, and we could not check what the shares closed at.
07

What share of US household savings sits in shares.

A Reuters columnist gives 46.6% of financial assets and Axios gives 48%, both citing US central bank figures. [46][47] The two may count different things, and neither piece says how.
08

Whether farmers in southern Brazil are really short of diesel.

The farm federation of Rio Grande do Sul reports delayed deliveries, and the fuel regulator says deliveries are normal. [40]
09

What Orlen paid for its 16 replacement cargoes.

Orlen did not say how much it paid. The figure of close to $1.5 billion is a Reuters estimate. [39]

04 Hope carry this

Poland's oil refiner Orlen lost some of its Saudi oil this month and within days bought 16 replacement shiploads from Norway, Britain, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and the Americas.

Also true today

Prices in Brazil have slowed enough for its central bank to cut interest rates for a fifth meeting in a row, to 13.75%.
The global oil price fell 2.7% on Wednesday, as Saudi Arabia began loading more crude onto tankers off the coast of Oman.
LuxExperience, which bought the struggling Net-a-Porter group less than 15 months ago, now has no bank debt and 442 million euros in cash.