Day Lila

Finance News · Monday, 19 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

China's economy grows 4.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts, as exports jump 36% while home sales and shop spending stay weak

29 stories 52 sources

China's economy grew a little faster than expected in July to September because factories and foreign buyers made up for weak spending at home. Elsewhere, Asian chip shares fell again, Indonesia's market hit a six-year low, and India readied its biggest share sale.

4.5%

growth in China's economy in July to September, from a year earlier

above the 4.4% economists had expected [1]

$938bn

more sold abroad than bought, January to September

last year's record for the whole year was $1.2 trillion [3]

5% vs under 1%

rise in factory-gate prices against the rise in shop prices, September

factory prices rose at the fastest pace in more than four years [1]

-20.6%

fall in money spent building property, January to September

worse than the 19.9% fall in the eight months to August [1]

The lead story — what happened

  • China's economy grew 4.5% in July to September from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics, China's official statistics office, said on Monday. [2][5]
  • Economists polled by Reuters had expected 4.4%, and growth picked up from 4.3% in April to June, the slowest in more than three years. [1][6]
  • Over the first nine months the economy grew 4.6%, inside the Chinese government's target of 4.5% to 5% for this year. [5][6]
  • Factories did most of the work: industrial output rose 5.5% in September, the fastest in six months. [6][8]
  • Exports jumped 36% in September, and China sold $938 billion more abroad than it bought from January to September. [3] It is on course to beat last year's record surplus of $1.2 trillion. [3][4]
  • Car exports reached 7.1 million in nine months, up more than 70%, and September's were led by hybrid and electric cars. [4]
  • Shoppers at home spent only a little more: retail sales rose 1.1% in September, the fastest since March. [6][8] Leaving out cars, they rose 3.9%. [7]
  • Property kept shrinking: money spent on building property fell 20.6% in the first nine months, and home sales fell 13.7%. [1][9]
  • New home prices fell again in September, so they have not risen since June 2023, though prices in the biggest cities are steadying. [10]
  • Factory-gate prices, what producers charge, rose 5% in September, the fastest in more than four years, while shop prices rose less than 1%. [1]
  • Sheana Yue of Oxford Economics, a forecasting firm, said that gap may leave firms paying more of their rising costs out of profit instead of raising prices. [1]
  • China's government added help in recent weeks: targeted interest-rate cuts and mortgage subsidies in late September, and 550 billion yuan ($82 billion) of unused borrowing allowance for local governments. [1][11]
Both are rises from September last year. China's sales to the rest of the world grew far faster than sales in its own shops.

Who is involved

  • National Bureau of Statistics

    China's official statistics office; it published the growth, shop-sales and home-price figures on Monday

  • China's government

    set a growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026; added mortgage subsidies and local borrowing in recent weeks

  • The European Union

    the 27-country trading bloc; it buys far more from China than it sells there, and agreed this month to cut Chinese hybrid car imports

  • Eswar Prasad

    an economics professor at Cornell University in the US; he says China's surpluses make it a drag on world growth

  • Sheana Yue

    an economist at Oxford Economics, a forecasting firm; she expects firms to take rising costs out of their profits

How it unfolded

  1. Apr-Jun growth slows to 4.3%, the weakest in more than three years [1]
  2. Late Sep targeted rate cuts and mortgage subsidies [1]
  3. Early Oct 550 billion yuan of unused borrowing allowance handed to local governments [1][11]
  4. This month the EU and China agree to roughly halve Chinese hybrid car imports [3]
  5. 19 Oct growth of 4.5% in July to September is reported [2]

Where this points

The next test is whether shop prices start to follow factory prices up; until they do, Chinese firms carry more of the higher costs in their profits, and the case for more government help grows. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Chip shares falling High↑

A Bloomberg measure of Asian chipmakers fell more than 2% on Monday, to its lowest since July. [16] South Korea's state pension fund has lost about $137 billion on its big shareholdings since June, mostly in two chipmakers. [19] China's CXMT fell 6.5% even after forecasting a profit of about $19.6 billion. [20]

The war's fuel bill High→

Brent oil fell 1.6% to about $108 a barrel on Monday, after Trump waived sanctions on Russia. [18] In Britain, 38% of the latest profit warnings blamed the war in the Middle East. [30] The US military says its blockade has stopped Iran selling at least $25 billion of oil. [46]

Foreign money leaving Building↑

Foreign investors have pulled about $5 billion out of Indonesian shares this year. [13][15] They have sold more than $33 billion of Indian shares in the same time. [37] On Thursday they sold a record $9.3 billion of Taiwanese shares in one day. [21]

Big share sales lining up Building↑

Jio Platforms, the phone and internet arm of Reliance, opens what would be India's biggest share sale on Wednesday. [35][36] Nigeria's Dangote refinery says buyers from more than 90 countries have joined its share sale. [43] Dubai Investments is selling a fifth of DIP Holding, the UAE's first share sale this year. [44]

The rest of the day

28 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Indonesia's shares fall to a six-year low

    The Jakarta Composite, Indonesia's main share index, fell more than 5% on Monday to its lowest since October 2020. [13] On Friday it had dropped 11.6%, its biggest one-day fall in nearly three decades. [15] The cause was MSCI, a company whose share lists big funds copy, proposing to move Indonesia out of its 'emerging market' group into 'standalone', alongside Lebanon and Zimbabwe. [15] Indonesia's regulators were due to meet MSCI on Monday to ask why. [14]

    Why it matters — Goldman Sachs, a US bank, estimates removal could push about $5.6 billion out of funds that track the lists. [13] The rupiah, Indonesia's currency, is near 18,000 to the dollar, close to its record low. [15] A weaker rupiah makes fuel and everything else Indonesia buys abroad cost more.

  2. 03

    Asia's chip shares slide again

    Shares in Asian chipmakers fell again on Monday, and a Bloomberg measure of them dropped more than 2% to its lowest since July. [16] Taiwan's TSMC, Korea's SK Hynix and Japan's Advantest were among the biggest fallers. [16] Over the weekend DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, released a faster, leaner model, which raised worries that AI will need fewer memory chips. [16] Japan's Nikkei index fell 2%, after losing 5.4% last week. [18] South Korea's main index, the Kospi, opened more than 3% lower and then won the loss back. [16][17]

    Why it matters — US chip shares had fallen for eight sessions in a row on doubts that CoreWeave, which rents out AI computers, can pay for its building. [16] A fund manager in Seoul said Korean chipmakers cannot make money unless US firms keep spending. [16]

  3. 04

    Korea's state pension loses 182 trillion won

    South Korea's National Pension Service, which invests the country's state pension savings, saw its big stakes in 287 companies lose 182 trillion won, about $137 billion, between the end of June and 15 October. [19] Falls in two chipmakers, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, caused about 72% of the loss. [19] The Kospi hit a record in June and then fell about 39%. [19] In May the fund had raised its target for Korean shares and cut its target for foreign ones. [19]

    • SK Hynix and Samsung72 · 72%
    • The other 285 companies28 · 28%
    Out of every 100 won the pension fund's big stakes lost since June, about 72 came from two chipmakers.

    Why it matters — Korea's opposition People Power Party says the fund should have bought shares to steady the market as it fell. [19] The money belongs to the workers who will draw those pensions.

  4. 05

    China's state funds buy as shares slide

    China's main share index, the CSI 300, fell 3.4% last week, its tenth weekly fall in a row, the longest such run on record. [12] Money going into funds favoured by the 'National Team', China's state-backed investors that buy to steady the market, hit its highest since July. [12] There is no official word that the state is buying. [12] The index rose 0.3% on Monday after the growth figures, but is still about 17% below its June peak. [12]

    Why it matters — The Star 50, China's index of tech shares, has fallen nearly 40% this half-year, the worst of any big tech index. [12] China's government has leaned on the share market to help its push to lead in technology, so the fall is a setback for that plan. [12]

  5. 06

    Oil falls after Trump waives Russia sanctions

    Brent crude, the main world oil price, fell 1.6% to about $108 a barrel on Monday. [18] On Friday US President Donald Trump signed an order suspending sanctions on Russia days before they began, and waived planned tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. [22] He later said no final decision had been made, and Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said Trump would take up to 60 days to weigh it. [18] Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, said the waiver covers only diesel exports. [23]

    Why it matters — Wright said Russia has no spare diesel to sell, so it can only sell more by fighting less. [23] Iran reported that another tanker had hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US standoff with Iran still holds fuel prices up. [18][22]

  6. 07

    Euro slips as France's riots hit its bonds

    The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1225 as Asian trading began on Monday, after a weekend of violent cost-of-living riots in France. [24] It stays close to last week's 16-month low of $1.1113. [18] A currency analyst in London said the riots matter for the euro mainly through French government bonds. [24] France's ten-year borrowing rate ended Friday at about 4.78%, about 1.37 percentage points above Germany's. [25]

    Why it matters — Ninety One, an investment firm, warned that without a 2027 budget France's deficit could pass 6% of its economy, more than double the EU's 3% limit. [25] France holds a presidential election in about six months, and its government is already struggling to pass a budget. [26][25]

  7. 08

    French shops count the riot damage

    Alexandre Bompard, who runs Carrefour, one of France's biggest supermarket chains, said 50 of its stores were targeted by rioters on Saturday. [27] He said about 1,500 other shops were damaged, and put the cost of repairs at more than 10 million euros. [27] Thierry Guibert, head of the clothing brand Lacoste, said its shops were looted too. [28] Laurent Nunez, France's interior minister, said more than 2,000 people were arrested and 600 police officers hurt. [27]

    Why it matters — Bompard asked France's government to pay shopkeepers compensation as fast as it does after a natural disaster. [27] Shops that cannot open lose their sales on top of the repair bill.

  8. 09

    Food in Europe costs a third more than in 2021

    Food and soft drink prices in the European Union rose 34% between August 2021 and August 2026, according to Eurostat figures analysed by Euronews. [29] Eurostat is the EU's statistics office. Over the same time, the food a month's minimum wage buys fell by 6% in Malta, 5% in Spain and 4% in France, while it rose in most of the other countries studied. [29] The weekend's protests in France, Belgium, Italy and Portugal were about living costs, housing, low pay and public services. [29]

    Why it matters — The comparison leaves out rent, taxes and other bills, so the squeeze on low-paid workers is bigger than these figures show. [29]

  9. 10

    UK profit warnings at a two-year high

    Companies on the London stock market issued 65 profit warnings in July to September, the most in two years, according to EY-Parthenon, a consulting firm. [30] A profit warning is a company telling investors it will earn less than they expected. Rising costs were the main reason in 35% of them, and 38% named the war in the Middle East. [30] Housebuilders have issued 14 warnings this year, more than the 10 they issued in 2008, during the financial crisis. [30]

    Why it matters — John Healey, the UK chancellor, who sets taxes, presents his budget on 28 October, and business groups want help with fuel and power bills. [30] He is preparing to raise the point at which small firms start paying business rates, a tax on property, from 12,000 to 18,000 pounds. [30]

  10. 11

    UK steelmakers pay far more for power

    British steelmakers now pay almost 30 pounds more for each megawatt hour of electricity than French rivals, the widest gap in three years, according to UK Steel, the industry's lobby group. [31] Gas got dearer after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and in Britain the cost of gas sets what all electricity costs, even power from wind and solar. [31] France's electricity comes mainly from nuclear power stations. [31] About 75% of Britain's exported steel, worth about 3 billion pounds, goes to the EU. [31]

    Why it matters — UK Steel wants the UK government to cap the price steelmakers pay, at a cost it puts at about 51 million pounds a year. [31] The UK government says it has already cut power bills by up to 25% for more than 10,000 manufacturers. [31]

  11. 12

    Ukraine's biggest steelmaker hits out at EU limits

    Yuriy Ryzhenkov, chief executive of Metinvest, one of Ukraine's biggest steel companies, told the BBC that new EU limits on steel imports are unfair to Ukraine. [32] The EU has cut the steel that can enter tax-free to 18.3 million tonnes a year, 47% less than in 2024. [32] It wants to protect its own mills from cheap imports from countries such as China and Turkey. [32] Ukraine's steel industry estimates its exports to the EU could fall by 50% to 60%. [32]

    Why it matters — Before Russia's full invasion in 2022, metals and mining made up about a tenth of Ukraine's national income and a third of its exports, and the EU is its top customer. [32] Ryzhenkov says Russian strikes on the mills have grown much heavier recently. [32]

  12. 13

    Japan's leader denies blame for the weak yen

    Sanae Takaichi, Japan's prime minister, told parliament she denies causing the yen's weakness or the rise in interest rates. [33] Under her government the yen fell to its lowest since 1986, and the governments of Japan and the US both stepped in to buy it. [33] Japan's long-term borrowing rates are at their highest in decades. [33] On Monday Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, said underlying inflation is 'quite close' to its 2% target. [24]

    Why it matters — A weaker yen has helped Japan's exports. [33] It also makes the oil and food Japan buys abroad cost more in yen. Takaichi says total government borrowing for 2026 will not change, though experts doubt it. [33]

  13. 14

    Foreigners sell a record amount of Taiwan's shares

    Foreign investors sold 302.6 billion Taiwan dollars, about $9.3 billion, of Taiwanese shares on Thursday, the biggest one-day outflow on record. [21] That pushed the Taiwan dollar close to its low for the year, about 32.5 to the US dollar. [21] Taiwan's economy is still expected to grow more than 10% this year, its first double-digit growth since 2010, because of demand for advanced chips. [21] The banks OCBC and ING expect the currency to recover about 2% by the year's end. [21]

    Why it matters — Analysts say Taiwan's central bank has been comfortable keeping the currency between 31.5 and 32.5 to the dollar this year. [21] Foreign funds that sell shares must also sell the currency they were paid in, which is how a share sell-off pulls a currency down.

  14. 15

    CXMT falls despite a huge profit

    Shares of CXMT, a Chinese maker of memory chips, fell 6.5% on Monday. [20] On Friday it forecast a net profit of 131 billion to 132.5 billion yuan, about $19.6 billion, for January to September, against a loss of 5.28 billion yuan a year earlier. [20] It said demand for AI computing had caused shortages of memory chips and much higher prices. [20] CXMT took 10% of world sales of DRAM, a common memory chip, in the third quarter, up from 5% a year earlier, says Counterpoint Research, a market research firm. [20]

    Why it matters — Investors are selling chipmakers on fears that AI spending will slow, so even a huge profit did not lift the shares. [16][20]

  15. 16

    India's biggest share sale opens Wednesday

    Jio Platforms, the phone and internet arm of Reliance Industries, takes bids on Monday from big 'anchor' investors, who promise to buy early. [36] Its share sale opens to the public on Wednesday 21 October. [36] It aims to raise 30,213 crore rupees, which is 302 billion rupees, in India's biggest share sale, passing Hyundai Motor India's 27,800 crore in October 2024. [35] Bidding closes on 23 October and the shares should start trading on 28 October. [35] Media reports say LIC, India's state-owned life insurer, and funds such as BlackRock want to be anchors. [36]

    The two biggest share sales in India. Jio's would pass the record Hyundai set two years ago.

    Why it matters — Jio is selling only new shares, so all the money goes to the company and none to existing owners. [36] Nine other companies start trading this week, and Tuesday is a market holiday for Dussehra, a Hindu festival. [34]

  16. 17

    India's finance minister blames easy exits

    Nirmala Sitharaman, India's finance minister, told CNBC that plentiful money in India's share market lets investors sell out easily, and that this has held prices back. [37] India's main share indexes have fallen nearly 12% since January, and foreign funds have sold more than $33 billion of Indian shares this year. [37] Of the $60.4 billion raised in Indian share sales from 2021 to 2025, 63% went to existing owners selling out, not to the companies, a report by EY, an accounting firm, found. [37]

    • To owners selling out63 · 63%
    • To the companies37 · 37%
    Where the money raised in Indian share sales from 2021 to 2025 went, out of every 100 dollars.

    Why it matters — Foreign money went to Taiwan and Korea and their AI chipmakers instead, and India's share of a main MSCI index of Asian shares fell from 19% to 10%. [37] Sitharaman says continued outflows are one of India's biggest risks for 2027. [37]

  17. 18

    Indian bank shares fall after their results

    Shares of Axis Bank, one of India's biggest private banks, fell 5% on Monday morning, and HDFC Bank fell more than 2%. [38] Axis's profit for July to September rose 37.6%, while HDFC Bank's rose nearly 5% and narrowly missed forecasts. [38][39] HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are the two biggest companies in the Nifty 50, India's main share index. [39] Punjab National Bank, the second-biggest state-owned lender, said it does not plan to raise new capital this year and expects lending to grow about 15%. [40]

    Why it matters — A broker said expectations had been high and the results were mixed. [38] State-owned banks are doing better because falling bond yields have eased their losses on the bonds they hold. [38]

  18. 19

    IDBI Bank's profit falls 39% before its sale

    IDBI Bank, an Indian lender controlled by LIC, the state life insurer, made a net profit of 2,205 crore rupees in July to September, 39% less than a year earlier. [41] The year before had included a one-off gain of about 1,699 crore from selling part of its stake in NSDL, a share-records company. [41] Its income from lending, after paying savers, rose 29%. [41] India's government and LIC are selling a combined 60.72% of the bank to Fairfax Financial, a Canadian group, for about 52,878 crore rupees. [41]

    Why it matters — Leave out last year's one-off gain and the bank earned more from lending, not less. [41] Its shares are down about 19% this year. [41]

  19. 20

    EQT agrees to buy Cleanaway

    Cleanaway, an Australian waste management company, agreed on Monday to be bought by EQT, a Swedish firm that buys whole companies with investors' money. [42] The deal values Cleanaway at about 9.3 billion Australian dollars, or $6.5 billion, including its debt. [42] Shareholders will get 3.095 Australian dollars in cash for each share. [42] Cleanaway's shares rose nearly 20%, heading for their best day since October 2011. [42] The offer is 32.1% above the share price before EQT's interest became public in August. [42]

    Why it matters — Cleanaway's board backs the deal, so it now goes to a vote of shareholders. [42] Any dividends paid before the deal closes, up to 0.19 Australian dollars a share, will be taken off the 3.095 dollars. [42]

  20. 21

    Dangote's share sale draws buyers from 90 countries

    Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a huge oil refinery in Nigeria, says its share sale has drawn buyers from more than 90 countries, including 51 of Africa's 54 nations. [43] It says the sale broke the Nigerian record on its first day and the African record within ten days. [43] For January to September 2026 the refinery reported revenue of $22.5 billion and a net profit of $4.7 billion, against a loss of $117.2 million a year earlier. [43] The sale closes on 27 October. [43]

    Why it matters — These figures come from the company, and its statement does not say how much money the sale has raised so far. [43] The company says it plans no further extension of the sale. [43]

  21. 22

    Dubai's first share sale of the year

    Dubai Investments, a Dubai-listed group of companies, is selling 20% of DIP Holding, which owns Dubai Investments Park, in the UAE's first share sale this year. [44] Bids open on 27 October and close on 3 November, and trading should start on 11 November. [44] The park, near Jebel Ali port, is home to 1,000 tenants and more than 150,000 residents. [44] Share sales in the Middle East raised $7.1 billion in 2025, down from $13 billion the year before. [44]

    Why it matters — Dubai Investments said last year that it planned to list part of the park, before the US war with Iran, now in its eighth month, stalled deals across the region. [44]

  22. 23

    UAE will host the 2029 IMF meetings

    The United Arab Emirates has signed a deal, announced on Sunday, to host the 2029 annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Abu Dhabi. [45] The IMF lends to countries in money trouble, and the World Bank lends to poorer countries to help them grow. The meetings draw more than 10,000 people from over 190 countries, including finance ministers and central bank governors. [45] It will be the first time they return to the Emirates since Dubai hosted them in 2003. [45]

    Why it matters — The deal was signed in Bangkok as this year's meetings ended. [45] The UAE's finance ministry called it a mark of confidence in its financial system. [45]

  23. 24

    Iran cannot pay its troops, US says

    Admiral Brad Cooper, who runs US Central Command, the US military's command for the Middle East, said the US naval blockade has stopped Iran exporting at least $25 billion of crude oil. [46] He said Iran is now holding back salaries and pensions, including pay for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its most powerful armed force. [46] Oil sales usually make up about a third of Iran's state budget. [46] Payments for the last cargoes already at sea, mostly sold to China, may keep arriving until December. [46]

    Why it matters — Retired Iranian government workers have protested over missing pensions, the New York Times reported. [46] These figures come from the US military, one side in the war.

  24. 25

    Short seller Andrew Left asks for a new trial

    Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research and a well-known short seller, someone who bets that share prices will fall, has asked a judge to throw out his fraud conviction. [47] A jury in Los Angeles found him guilty of 13 counts of securities fraud in June. [47] Prosecutors said he publicly named target prices for shares such as Tesla and Nvidia while trading them at other prices with his own money. [47] His lawyers point to a key witness who was later put on leave over a government investigation into someone else's trades. [47]

    Why it matters — No agency has accused that witness, Daniel Bachus, finance chief of Grand Canyon Education, a company that serves universities, of wrongdoing. [47] Left has not been sentenced, and the SEC, the US markets regulator, is suing him separately. [47]

  25. 26

    New US banks keep needing new money

    Erebor Bank, a new US bank backed by Palmer Luckey, a tech entrepreneur, is set to raise $1.5 billion at a value of $8 billion. [48] Its deposits rose to $7 billion at the end of September, from $4 billion three months earlier. [48] US regulators make new banks keep their own money worth at least 10% to 12% of what they hold, so a growing bank that is not yet profitable must keep raising cash. [48] The Trump administration has made it easier to start a bank. [48]

    Why it matters — Openreserve, a crypto-backed bank, says it will raise more money before it opens next year. [48] Regulators set the rule so that a bank has its own money to soak up losses and protect savers. [48]

  26. 27

    Gold rises as US rate-rise bets fade

    Gold rose 0.3% to about $4,176 an ounce on Monday, helped by cheaper oil. [49] Traders now see only a 16% chance that the US central bank raises interest rates this month. [49] Its rate-setters meet on 27 and 28 October. [26] Gold has fallen about a fifth since the US and Israel went to war with Iran in late February, as central banks raised rates to fight rising prices. [50]

    Why it matters — Gold pays no interest, so it does worse when interest rates rise. [50] The ten-year US borrowing rate had its biggest weekly fall in more than eight months last week. [18]

  27. 28

    Spain's pension bill sets a record

    Spain paid a record of almost 14.5 billion euros in pensions in one month this year, and pensions are a big issue before its general election on 29 November. [51] Its Social Security system reported a 2025 deficit of 7.4 billion euros, the smallest since 2011. [51] But the state paid in 47.8 billion euros, about a fifth of the system's income. [51] Without those payments, Fedea, a Spanish research group, puts the gap for a wider system at about 70 billion euros. [51]

    Two counts of the same pension gap for 2025. Spain's ministry counts state payments as income. Fedea leaves them out and counts a wider system.

    Why it matters — Spain pays today's pensions from today's workers, so the number of workers matters: there were 2.37 for each pensioner in June. [51]

  28. 29

    US small firms keep hiring, mostly

    Small businesses in the US added 28,000 jobs in September, the eighth month of gains in a row, according to Gusto, a payroll company. [52] Intuit, which makes accounting software, found jobs at firms with one to nine staff fell by 7,000. [52] A survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, a US small-firms lobby group, found owners' optimism slipped to just below its long-term average. [52] In another survey, 54% of owners named rising prices as their biggest problem. [52]

    Why it matters — Small firms employ about half of US workers, so their mood matters before November's midterm elections. [52]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a rise in costs comes out of profits when buyers hold back

When shoppers will not pay more, or can buy from a cheaper rival, a firm hit by higher costs keeps its price and earns less instead.

The twist

A rise in costs lands on whoever has less choice. When buyers can do without, or can buy from a cheaper rival, the seller pays it out of profit. When buyers cannot do without, as with food, they pay it in higher prices.

The picture

How much each rose in China in the year to September. An economist at Oxford Economics says firms may pay much of the gap out of their own profits.

How it works

  1. Oil, gas or power gets dearer for every maker
  2. Each maker wants to raise its price to cover it
  3. Buyers short of money, or with a cheaper rival, refuse
  4. So the maker keeps its price and earns less on each sale
  5. If it lasts, profits fall and firms warn their investors

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • UK profit warnings at a two-year high

    Rising costs were the main cause of 35% of the 65 warnings, because the firms' costs went up faster than they could raise what they charge.

  • UK steelmakers pay far more for power

    They pay almost 30 pounds more per megawatt hour than French rivals but sell to the same EU buyers, so they cannot add the gap to what they charge.

  • Food in Europe costs a third more than in 2021

    Households cannot stop buying food, so food sellers did pass their costs on, and EU food prices rose 34% in five years.

  • CXMT falls despite a huge profit

    Makers of AI computers could not do without memory chips, so when the chips ran short their prices rose sharply and CXMT's profit jumped.

Where you've seen this

Farmers selling to supermarkets

when diesel and fertiliser cost more, a few big buyers still set the price, so the farm takes the cut

A cafe on a busy street

if the rent rises but the cafe next door keeps its prices, the owner cannot charge more for coffee

Landlords in a town with empty flats

a dearer mortgage cannot be added to the rent when tenants can move somewhere cheaper

A medicine with no rival

the only maker of a drug can usually raise its price, because patients cannot go without it

The catch

A firm can pay a cost out of profit only for so long. If the squeeze lasts, it cuts staff or closes, or its rivals fail and the survivors raise prices, so buyers pay later instead.

And the whole of it

In China this month, a shopper who will not pay more, a factory that earns less on each sale, and a worker whose pay depends on that factory are sharing the cost of dearer oil. Each of them sees only their own share of it.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

China grew 4.5% because the rest of the world bought its goods: exports rose 36% in September while sales in its own shops rose 1.1%. [3][8] Those cheap goods land on other countries' factories, which is why the EU agreed to halve Chinese hybrid car imports and has cut the steel it lets in tax-free by 47%. [3][32]

Why it works on us — A growth number that beats forecasts reads as good news on its own, and an economist at The Conference Board, a US business research group, says China's headline figure is becoming a poor guide to how the wider economy is doing. [3]

Who gains

  • Chinese exporters — Selling abroad kept their factories busy while home buyers held back, and car exports rose more than 70% in nine months. [4]
  • Russia's fuel sellers — Trump's waiver lets Russian diesel be sold again without the sanctions that were about to start. [22][23]
  • Cleanaway's shareholders — EQT is paying them 3.095 Australian dollars a share in cash, 32.1% above the price before its interest was known. [42]
  • Owners selling out in Indian share sales — From 2021 to 2025, 63% of the money raised in Indian share sales went to them, not to the companies. [37]
  • French steelmakers — Their nuclear-powered electricity costs almost 30 pounds per megawatt hour less than British rivals pay, in the same EU market. [31]

Who pays

  • Chinese families who own homes — Home prices fell about 3% in a year, and the slump has shrunk the wealth they keep in property. [9][1]
  • Future South Korean pensioners — Their national pension fund's big stakes lost about $137 billion since June, mostly in two chipmakers. [19]
  • Ukraine's steelworkers — EU limits aimed at cheap imports from China and Turkey could cut Ukraine's steel exports to the EU by half or more. [32]
  • British steelmakers — They pay far more for power than French rivals while selling into the same EU market, which takes about 75% of their exported steel. [31]
  • French shopkeepers — About 1,500 shops were damaged in the riots, and repairs will cost more than 10 million euros, Carrefour's boss said. [27]
  • Investors in Indonesian shares — MSCI's Indonesia index has fallen 47% this year, and the market fell more than 5% again on Monday. [13]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    How much of China's 4.5% growth reached households.

    The figures give no split by household, and The Conference Board's economist says the headline hides widening gaps between industries, regions and families. [3] Shop sales grew 1.1%. [8]

  • 02

    How fast China's home prices are really falling.

    Two counts from the same official data differ: Reuters puts new home prices down 2.8% in a year, and the Wall Street Journal's count of 70 cities puts prices down 3.0%. [10][9]

  • 03

    Whether Indonesia keeps its place in MSCI's emerging-market lists.

    MSCI decides by the end of June, Indonesia's regulators say they were caught by surprise, and MSCI did not answer questions. [14][13]

  • 04

    How much money would actually leave Indonesia if it is moved.

    Goldman Sachs puts the automatic outflow at $5.6 billion, but says selling by the other $8 billion held by fund managers would be their own choice. [13]

  • 05

    What Trump's Russia waiver really covers, and whether it lasts.

    One report says it suspends most sanctions and tariffs, while the US energy secretary says it covers only diesel exports. [22][23] Trump later said no final decision had been made. [18]

  • 06

    How much India's investors actually want Jio's shares.

    The reports of about 2.5 lakh crore rupees in commitments come from the media, not from the company, and bidding has not opened. [36]

  • 07

    How big Spain's pension gap is.

    Spain's social security ministry counts a 7.4 billion euro deficit for 2025, while Fedea counts about 70 billion, because one treats state payments as income and the other does not. [51]

  • 08

    Whether US small firms are hiring or cutting.

    Gusto counts 28,000 new jobs at small businesses in September, while Intuit counts 7,000 fewer jobs at firms with one to nine staff. [52]

  • 09

    Whether Iran's money troubles are as deep as the US says.

    The figures on unpaid troops and blocked oil come from the US military, one side in the war. [46]

04 Hope carry this

In most of the EU countries Euronews studied, a month's minimum wage buys more food than it did in August 2021, even though food prices rose 34%.

Also true today

  • Spain had more than 22.5 million people paying into its pension system at the end of July, the most ever.
  • In China, the jobless rate in cities fell to 5.2% in September, and shop sales grew at their fastest pace since March.
  • Dangote's refinery in Nigeria, which lost $117 million in the first nine months of 2025, made a profit of $4.7 billion in the same months of 2026.

Across the beats