Day Lila

Finance News · Thursday, 22 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

China's main share index falls 20% from its June peak into a bear market, and Hong Kong shares fall to a four-month low as hopes of more government help fade

29 stories 49 sources

China's CSI 300 index of its biggest companies fell into a bear market on Thursday after ten weeks of losses, Hong Kong's main index fell to a four-month low, and China's state funds are buying shares only slowly.

20%

fall in China's CSI 300 index since its June peak

its first bear market since the Covid sell-off of 2020 [2]

2.9%

fall in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index by Thursday midday

heading for its lowest close since 30 June; tech shares fell 4.6% [6]

90%

of China's daily share trading is done by small savers

against 20-25% on the New York Stock Exchange, HSBC data show [1]

$188bn

left for China's state share buyers to spend

they spent about $15 billion from 9 to 20 October [7]

The lead story — what happened

  • China's CSI 300 index, which tracks the 300 biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell on Thursday to 20% below its June peak, a fall traders call a bear market. [1][5]
  • It is the index's first bear market since the Covid sell-off of 2020, and it has now fallen for ten weeks in a row. [2][1]
  • In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 2.9% by midday, heading for its lowest close since 30 June, and its technology index dropped 4.6%. [6]
  • Tencent, which owns the WeChat messaging app, fell 3.4%, and Alibaba, China's biggest online shopping company, fell 6%. [4]
  • Chinese AI and chip shares fell hardest: the AI developer Z.AI lost 9.4%, and the STAR 50 index of tech companies has lost nearly 40% in this half-year. [2]
  • Fierce price competition is squeezing company profits, and in September China reported its weakest growth in factory profits this year. [1]
  • China's economy grew faster than forecast in July to September, which kept growth inside China's yearly growth target. [3][4]
  • That leaves China's government free to keep its help small and targeted, so investors have lowered their hopes of a big new spending plan. [3][4]
  • China's state-backed funds, the 'national team' led by Central Huijin, spent about $15 billion from 9 to 20 October, slower than in July, and Central Huijin still holds about $188 billion. [7]
  • In 2024, state buying cushioned shares through the summer but did not turn them round until a wider government plan came in September, Bloomberg Intelligence says. [7]
  • Wealthy Chinese had until 22 October to declare and pay tax on income held in trusts abroad, and some may have sold shares to raise the cash, Reuters reported. [5]
  • Small savers do about 90% of daily share trading in China, against 20-25% in New York, HSBC data show, and an analyst told CNBC they are quick to sell when worried. [1]
How far three Chinese share indexes have fallen in this half-year. The STAR 50 figure is nearly 40%, drawn at 40.

Who is involved

  • Central Huijin Investment

    the state-backed investor that leads China's share buying to steady the market; it is buying slowly [7]

  • China's small savers

    ordinary people who do about 90% of daily trading; they tend to sell fast when worried [1]

  • China's government

    it sets a yearly growth target, and growth is on course to meet it, so it is keeping its help small [3]

  • Gulf state funds

    investment funds owned by Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi; they put $8.5 billion into China and Hong Kong this year [11]

How it unfolded

  1. June China's CSI 300 index reaches its peak [1]
  2. July state funds start buying shares again [7]
  3. 9-20 Oct they spend about $15 billion, slower than in July [7]
  4. 22 Oct deadline for tax on income held in trusts abroad; the index falls 20% below its peak [5][1]

Where this points

Watch whether China's state funds speed up their buying, which Bloomberg Intelligence says may be needed, or whether China's government adds a wider plan, as it did in September 2024. [7]

Signals on this beat

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.

Doubts about AI spending Building↑

Lam Research, which makes chip-making machines, fell 8.5% before New York opened after a weak forecast. [14][8] Tesla cut its 2026 spending plan to $20 billion, and its shares fell about 3% after hours. [12] Chinese AI and chip shares led China's fall. [2]

The oil price climbing High↑

Brent crude rose 3.1% to $112.20 a barrel after a report that the US and Israel plan new strikes on Iran. [15] Southwest Airlines' fuel bill rose $821 million in one quarter. [31] India's shares fell a third day, with oil above $110 named as the first reason. [39]

Central banks holding firm Building→

The Bank of Korea kept its rate at 3%, with inflation above its 2% goal for 13 months. [26] A Bank of Japan deputy governor signalled more rate rises as prices near its 2% goal. [28] Minutes of India's central bank meeting pointed to more rises as well. [38]

Living costs biting High↑

South Africa cut its fuel tax after petrol rose to a record of more than 30 rand a litre. [41] In France, protests over living costs turned into riots while France's government still has no budget. [24] Sainsbury's, a big British supermarket, said shoppers are buying fewer items. [20]

The rest of the day

28 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Oil tops $112 on a report of new Iran strikes

    Brent crude, the main world oil price, rose 3.1% to $112.20 a barrel on Thursday morning. [15] US crude rose 2.8% to $99.86. [15] The New York Times reported that the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for a short but intense new attack on Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November. [15] President Trump has not approved the plan. [16] China drew down its oil stocks at a record 1.6 million barrels a day in September and still holds about 80 days of refinery needs, Kpler, a data firm, estimates. [16]

    Why it matters — Dearer oil lands hardest on Asia, which imports most of its fuel. [10] Chinese state refiners are likely to bid harder for Middle Eastern oil to refill their tanks, Kpler says. [16]

  2. 03

    AI shares fall after a run of results

    Futures on the Nasdaq, the US index full of tech companies, fell 1.7% before New York opened on Thursday, after a run of AI company results disappointed investors. [14] Lam Research, which makes the machines that build computer chips, fell 8.5% before trading began after a weaker forecast. [14][8] South Korea's Kospi index, heavy with memory-chip makers, closed 3.5% lower. [14] An analyst at Quilter Cheviot, a fund manager, said expectations were so high that a company had to beat forecasts by a wide margin for its shares to rise. [14]

    Why it matters — Morgan Stanley expects AI building to cost $1.6 trillion in 2027 and to drive about a quarter of next year's sales growth at the 500 biggest US companies. [10] About two-thirds of the gains in that index since 2024 came from 42 AI companies, Fortune reports. [49]

  3. 04

    Tesla cuts its spending plan, and its shares fall

    Tesla, the electric-car maker run by Elon Musk, beat forecasts with $28.05 billion of sales and 48 cents of profit a share in July to September. [18] Its operating profit still fell 56% from a year earlier, to $718 million, as spending on robots and AI rose. [19] It cut its 2026 spending plan to $20 billion from $25 billion. [12] Musk said robotaxis will add to sales only from mid-to-late 2027. [12] The shares fell about 3% after hours, and Samsung SDI, a battery supplier, fell 4.5% in Seoul. [12]

    Why it matters — Tesla's share price rests more on its plans for robots and self-driving cars than on car sales, which fell 3%. [18] A smaller spending plan raised questions about how fast those plans will arrive, a Deutsche Bank analyst said. [10]

  4. 05

    Barclays cuts 5,000 jobs as its profit rises 12%

    Barclays, one of Britain's biggest banks, said it is cutting about 5,000 jobs this year, about 5% of its 93,000 staff. [20][22] About 60% of the cuts are in support roles, including software developers, and the bank says AI makes the staff it keeps more productive. [21] Its profit before tax rose 12% to 2.3 billion pounds in July to September, but that was below forecasts, because income from bond trading fell 19%. [20] It will also buy back another 500 million pounds of its own shares. [23]

    Why it matters — The cuts belong to a plan to save more than 1.1 billion pounds in 2027, and 1,000 jobs have already gone. [20][22] They come a week before the UK budget, where John Healey, the UK's finance minister, is expected to raise taxes on banks; Barclays' boss called the hit bearable. [20]

  5. 06

    France pays more to borrow than the US

    The interest rate on France's ten-year government bonds rose above 5% on Thursday, its highest since 2002. [24][14] It reached 5.09%, above the 5.07% the US pays, for the first time since 2013. [20] The extra France pays over Germany, Europe's safest borrower, rose to 1.64 percentage points, the most since 2011. [14] France's government has still not passed next year's budget, and protests over living costs have turned into riots in several cities. [24]

    Why it matters — Some lenders, notably Japanese fund managers, have stopped lending to France, and the rest charge more. [24] French factory confidence rose to 105 in October, its highest since July 2022, but the survey was taken before last weekend's riots. [20]

  6. 07

    Investors buy US government bonds for safety

    Investors bought US government bonds on Thursday as shares fell, which pushed the rate on the ten-year bond down about 0.07 percentage points to 5.07%. [17] Bond prices and rates move in opposite directions, so heavy buying lowers the rate. [17] That ten-year rate is the main guide for US mortgages, car loans and credit cards. [17] Gold fell 1% to just above $4,100 an ounce, and bitcoin, a digital currency, fell 3%. [14]

    Why it matters — The ten-year rate is the main guide for new US mortgages, so a day of fear in shares pulled that guide down. [17] Investors were also waiting for weekly US figures on new claims for unemployment pay. [17]

  7. 08

    Norway's giant fund loses $30 billion on bonds

    Norway's sovereign wealth fund, which invests the country's oil money and is the world's biggest, lost 278 billion kroner, about $29.7 billion, in July to September. [25] Its bonds lost 3.5% as interest rates rose around the world, which lowers the price of bonds already held. [25] Its shares, 72% of the fund, returned 0.5%: energy companies rose, while property and power companies fell. [25] The fund is worth about $2.3 trillion and owns small stakes in about 7,100 companies. [25]

    Why it matters — It owns 1.5% of all listed companies in the world, so its results are a picture of how markets did. [25] Last month it said it would cut how much US government debt it holds. [25]

  8. 09

    Gulf state funds pour money into China

    State investment funds put $14.2 billion into mainland China and Hong Kong in the first nine months of 2026, nearly three times the $4.9 billion of all 2025, the consultancy Global SWF says. [11] Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund put in $6 billion and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority $2.5 billion. [11] Four Gulf funds made up nearly 70% of the total. [11] A manager at Mubadala, another Abu Dhabi fund, said Chinese companies are cheaper than they have been in years. [11]

    Why it matters — China is still small for these funds: the US drew $132.4 billion from state funds over the same nine months. [11] The money kept arriving while China's main share index slid 20%. [1]

  9. 10

    South Korea's central bank holds its rate at 3%

    The Bank of Korea kept its main interest rate at 3% on Thursday, after raising it in both July and August. [27][26] Prices rose 2.9% in the year to September, and inflation has been at or above the bank's 2% goal for 13 months. [26] The bank said home loans keep growing and house prices around Seoul are rising faster again. [26] President Lee Jae Myung has called for an all-out effort to build more homes. [26]

    1. 1The bank's goal for inflation2%
    2. 2Korea's inflation, September2.9%
    Prices in South Korea are rising faster than its central bank's 2% goal, so it is not cutting its 3% rate.

    Why it matters — Capital Economics, a research firm, expects one more rate rise next month. [26] Korea's growth rests on chip exports, which rose 263% in September as AI builders bought memory chips. [26]

  10. 11

    Japan's central bank signals more rate rises

    Ryozo Himino, a deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, told parliament on Wednesday that Japan's underlying inflation is close to the bank's 2% goal. [28] He said borrowing in Japan is still cheap after last month's rate rise, and that waiting too long to act could harm the economy. [28] Traders read his words as a sign of more rate rises. [28][9] The yen held at about 158 to the US dollar. [9]

    Why it matters — The Bank of Japan kept loans very cheap for years to push prices up toward 2%. [28] With prices near that goal, the reason for cheap loans is fading, and Japanese firms and home owners face dearer borrowing.

  11. 12

    China's yuan reaches a four-year high

    China's yuan rose on Thursday to its highest against the US dollar in more than four years, helped by a weaker dollar, Reuters reported. [13] The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, sets a daily middle rate that the yuan may trade around. [13] On Thursday it set that rate at 6.7195 per dollar, much weaker than traders expected, which reads as a sign it wants to slow the rise. [13]

    Why it matters — A stronger yuan makes Chinese goods dearer abroad, at a time when exports are what keep China's economy growing. [13][4]

  12. 13

    EQT agrees to buy Qiagen for 9.6 billion euros

    EQT, a Swedish firm that buys whole companies with investors' money, agreed to buy Qiagen for about 9.6 billion euros ($10.78 billion). [29] Qiagen, a Dutch company, makes kits and machines that test genetic material in labs and hospitals. [29] EQT offers 46.50 euros a share. That is 8.6% above where Qiagen's shares closed before the deal, and 40.3% above their level in early July, before talk of a bid. [29][30] Abu Dhabi's state fund and Canada's national pension fund are joining in, and the deal should close in mid-2027. [29]

    Why it matters — Thermo Fisher, a big US lab-equipment maker, agreed to buy Qiagen in 2020 but gave up when too few shareholders backed it. [29] Qiagen has suspended its forecast for this year while the deal is pending. [29]

  13. 14

    Southwest cuts its forecast as fuel costs climb

    Southwest Airlines, a big US airline, cut its 2026 profit forecast to $2.60-$2.85 a share, from $3.25-$4.25. [31] Its fuel bill in July to September was $821 million higher than a year earlier. [31] It is the third major US airline this month to cut its forecast because of fuel, after Delta and United. [32] Its average fare rose almost 27% to $231.69, while it carried 3.2% fewer passengers. [32]

    Why it matters — Passengers are already paying far more, and the airline expects jet fuel to get dearer before the year ends. [31] Its boss says people are still booking despite the higher fares. [32]

  14. 15

    Kuehne+Nagel raises its forecast

    Kuehne+Nagel, a Swiss firm that moves goods by sea, air and road for other companies, raised its 2026 profit forecast to 1.5-1.6 billion Swiss francs. [33] Its profit in July to September was 8% above what analysts expected. [33] Its air freight volumes grew 10%, helped by shipments of chips and data-centre equipment and by exports from Southeast Asia. [33] Its sea freight business made 55% more profit than a year earlier. [33]

    Why it matters — A company that moves other firms' goods sees demand early. [33] Its numbers show AI hardware and Asian exports still moving in volume.

  15. 16

    Super Micro raises its sales forecast by $4 billion

    Super Micro Computer, which builds servers for AI data centres, said sales for its latest quarter will be $18.5-$19.5 billion, up from its earlier forecast of $14.5-$15.5 billion. [34][35] Its shares jumped 15% on Wednesday. [34] Dell and Hewlett Packard, which also sell servers, rose 5% and 3%. [34] Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and CoreWeave are among its known big customers, a fund manager said. [34]

    Why it matters — It showed the biggest AI builders were still buying machines one day before the sell-off in AI shares. [34][14]

  16. 17

    Three US banks take 80% of share-trading income

    The five biggest investment banks earned about $67 billion from trading shares for clients this year to 30 September, $7 billion more than in all of 2025. [36] Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley took $52 billion of it, nearly 80%. [36] Much of it came from lending to hedge funds, which borrowed heavily to bet on AI chip makers and their suppliers in Asia. [36] Looser rules on how much banks may lend helped. [36]

    Why it matters — The IMF, which watches the world's financial system, has warned about rising borrowed bets. [36] The three banks are big enough to take losses that push smaller rivals out of this business, CNBC reports. [36]

  17. 18

    Jio's share sale is filled, and the rupee rises

    Orders for the $3.2 billion share sale of Jio Platforms, India's biggest phone company, reached 3.64 times the shares on offer on its second day. [37] Big funds bid for 9.42 times their portion, and small savers filled theirs within two hours. [37] Foreign money coming in for the sale pushed India's rupee up to 94.35 to the dollar, on course for an eighth day of gains. [38] Minutes of the Reserve Bank of India's October meeting suggested more rate rises. [38]

    Why it matters — For many Indian families, shares in Reliance, Jio's owner, have long been a trusted store of savings, which helps explain the rush from small buyers. [37] The rupee rose despite dearer oil, which India mostly imports. [38]

  18. 19

    Indian shares fall for a third day

    India's Sensex index fell 460 points, or 0.62%, to 73,249 on Thursday, its third fall in a row. [39] Over those three days, listed Indian companies lost almost 15 lakh crore rupees in value, about $160 billion. [39] High oil prices and high US bond rates are encouraging traders to bet on falls, a strategist at Geojit, an Indian investment firm, said. [39] Traders are also waiting for the US central bank's meeting next week. [39]

    Why it matters — The market fell even on days when big funds were buying, the strategist said. [39]

  19. 20

    The Mistry family asks Tata Sons for a buyback

    The Shapoorji Pallonji Group, owned by the Mistry family, wants Tata Sons to put a share buyback worth about 25,000 crore rupees, about $2.6 billion, first on its next board agenda, Business World reported. [40] Tata Sons is the company that controls India's Tata group, and the Mistrys own 18.4% of it. [40] They have pledged that stake against loans and want cash to repay debt. [40] Noel Tata, who chairs the Tata Trusts, put the plan to the board. [40]

    Why it matters — Tata Sons' shares are not traded on a stock market, so the Mistrys cannot simply sell them; a buyback would turn part of the stake into cash. [40]

  20. 21

    South Africa cuts fuel tax as petrol tops 30 rand

    South Africa's finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, cut the tax on fuel by 3 rand a litre of diesel and 1.50 rand a litre of petrol in his mid-year budget on Wednesday. [41] The cut runs from 4 November to 1 December, with a smaller cut into the new year. [41] In October petrol rose above 30 rand a litre, a record. [41] The cut costs 10 billion rand ($611 million), paid for with money returned from a state energy fund. [41]

    Why it matters — Paraffin prices also rose, which hits poor households that cook and heat with it. [41] The cut lands before local elections next month. [41] Stronger tax collections, much of them from high commodity prices, have lifted South Africa's revenue forecast. [41]

  21. 22

    JPMorgan nears a banking licence in Nigeria

    JPMorgan, the biggest US bank, has paid a $38 million deposit to Nigeria's central bank and is on track for a merchant banking licence, Bloomberg reported. [42] A merchant bank arranges deals and loans for companies rather than serving the public. JPMorgan opened offices in Nairobi and Abidjan this year. [42] Nigeria's market regulator this week set out a 10-year plan to grow the country's stock and bond markets. [42]

    Why it matters — Nigeria wants money invested from Nigerians abroad to reach $10 billion a year, up from $4 billion. [42] Dangote's oil refinery is also selling shares, aiming to raise at least $1.6 billion. [42]

  22. 23

    Indonesia's state fund buys a hotel in Mecca

    Danantara, Indonesia's state investment fund, has bought a hotel and building land in Mecca for 2 billion riyals, about $533 million. [43] It is the first time a foreign state has bought property in Mecca, Islam's holiest city, said the head of the seller, Thakher Development. [43] Saudi Arabia opened property in Mecca and Medina to Muslims abroad and to some foreign institutions in January. [43] Thakher plans more sales next year. [43]

    Why it matters — Saudi Arabia wants to more than double religious visitors to 50 million a year by 2030, to earn more from things other than oil. [43]

  23. 24

    A big investor may fight Mattel's board

    Southeastern Asset Management, a big shareholder in Mattel, the maker of Barbie, is considering a fight for seats on the toymaker's board, Semafor reported. [44] It would ask other shareholders to vote its own people in, but no decision has been made. [44] It has pushed Mattel for months to sell itself after sales of Fisher-Price and other toys fell by double digits. [44] Ariel Investments, another big shareholder, has also said Mattel should sell. [44] Mattel's shares are down 15% this year. [44]

    Why it matters — Mattel's rules let an investor nominate only two directors, so a fight would be a vote on the company's direction, not a takeover of the board. [44] Mattel has also drawn takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group, the Wall Street Journal reported. [44]

  24. 25

    The US government now owns stakes in 43 companies

    The Trump administration has announced 43 stakes in private companies, from mineral miners to chipmakers, Semafor counts. [45] Thirty-six of them were agreed without a law that clearly allows it. [45] Some Democrats are already discussing how a future government of theirs could use such stakes, for example to rein in the AI industry or press oil companies. [45] Asking for a stake in return for a loan, grant or permit is now a tool any president could use. [45]

    Why it matters — Undoing 43 stakes would be hard both legally and politically, Semafor reports. [45] So public money now sits inside private companies, whichever party wins the next election.

  25. 26

    Ukraine's drones cut Russia's diesel exports

    Russia's diesel exports fell more than 75% to 141,000 barrels a day in September, from 608,000 a year earlier, after Ukrainian drones hit its refineries, Kpler data show. [46] Russia had been the world's second-biggest diesel exporter, after the US. [46] More than 1,000 Ukrainian drones targeted Russia on Sunday, setting fire to an oil export terminal in St Petersburg. [46] A deal Trump made with Putin for Russia to sell more diesel abroad now looks unlikely to work, a Kpler analyst said. [46]

    Why it matters — Diesel runs trucks, farm machines and ships, and its price has surged because of the wars in Europe and the Middle East. [46] Less Russian diesel on the market keeps that price high for everyone who moves goods.

  26. 27

    An Indian refiner's profit nearly quadruples

    Chennai Petroleum, a state-owned oil refiner in Tamil Nadu, said its profit rose 291% to 2,271 crore rupees in July to September, from 732 crore a year earlier. [47] It will pay shareholders a dividend of 25 rupees a share. [47] A refiner earns the gap between what crude oil costs and what fuels such as diesel sell for. Its shares closed about 1% higher. [47]

    Why it matters — Diesel prices have surged because of the wars in Europe and the Middle East. [46] Refiners make and sell that diesel, so fuel that costs airlines and drivers more can raise a refiner's profit.

  27. 28

    An Indian lender's shares fall 10% despite profit

    Shares in Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, which lends to buy tractors and vehicles in rural India, fell nearly 10% on Thursday. [48] Its profit rose 55% to 882 crore rupees in July to September. [48] Fewer borrowers fell behind: the cost of bad loans fell to 1.6% of its assets from 2.2%. [48] Brokers worried about its rising cost of borrowing and pressure on tractor loans, and Nomura lowered its price target to 400 rupees. [48]

    Why it matters — A lender earns the gap between what it pays to borrow and what it charges. [48] When its own borrowing gets dearer, that gap can shrink even after a strong quarter.

  28. 29

    Sainsbury's sales growth nearly halves

    Sainsbury's, Britain's second-biggest supermarket, said sales grew 2.6% in the six months to 12 September, and only 1.9% in the second three months. [20] Shoppers bought fewer items and spent less on clothing and furniture, its chief executive, Simon Roberts, said. [20] Sales at Argos, its catalogue shop, fell 1.8%. [20] Its shares fell 3.7%. [20]

    Why it matters — Roberts said households are finding it tough and food producers face rising costs. [20] He asked the UK government not to raise business costs again in this month's budget. [20]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a government stops spending more once growth is near its target

China's government spends to reach its yearly growth target, so when growth gets close, investors stop expecting more spending and sell the shares they bought for it.

The twist

China's growth beat forecasts, and its shares still fell. The growth meant China's government had nearly reached its goal, so investors stopped expecting the extra spending they had bought shares for.

The picture

  1. 1Bank of Korea's goal2%
  2. 2Korea's inflation, September2.9%
Prices in South Korea are rising faster than the Bank of Korea's goal. Until they come back down to 2%, borrowers there get no cheaper loans.

How it works

  1. A government or central bank sets a goal: growth of a set size, or prices rising 2% a year
  2. While the number falls short, it helps: it spends more, or keeps loans cheap
  3. Investors buy shares expecting that help
  4. Figures showing the number close to its goal mean the help will stop
  5. Investors who bought for the help sell, and prices fall

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • Japan's central bank signals more rate rises

    Prices are close to the Bank of Japan's 2% goal, so its deputy governor signalled that the cheap loans used to reach the goal will be withdrawn.

  • South Korea's central bank holds its rate at 3%

    Inflation has been above the 2% goal for 13 months, so the Bank of Korea gave no cheaper loans, even after South Korea's president asked for more homes.

Where you've seen this

A home heater

the heater switches off when the room reaches the temperature on the dial, however cold the person by the door feels

Extra lessons

a tutor hired to get a pupil to a pass mark stops the extra lessons once the pass looks safe

Sales bonuses

a salesperson paid a bonus for reaching a target has less reason to push once the target is met

The catch

It holds only while the goal stays fixed. If shares fall far enough to threaten banks or jobs, a government can change its mind and spend anyway, as China did in September 2024.

And the whole of it

A saver in Shenzhen, a home buyer in Seoul and a borrower in Osaka are each waiting on a decision tied to a number they do not set. Each feels the price move on the day, while the goal that decides the next move is written by officials they will never meet.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

China's government is sticking to small, targeted help for its economy, because growth is already on course for its yearly target, so the big rescue some investors hoped for has not come. [3][4] Its state funds are buying shares, but slowly, and the small savers who do about 90% of China's trading are quick to sell when worried. [7][1]

Why it works on us — A round number like 20% turns a ten-week slide into a single day's headline, so a slow fall reads as a sudden crash.

Who gains

  • Gulf state funds buying into China — They put $14.2 billion into China and Hong Kong this year, and one Mubadala manager says Chinese companies are the cheapest in years. [11]
  • Barclays' shareholders — The bank is cutting 5,000 jobs to save over 1.1 billion pounds in 2027, and it is spending 500 million pounds more buying back their shares. [20][23]
  • Oil refiners — Chennai Petroleum's profit rose 291%, while diesel prices surged because of the wars in Europe and the Middle East. [47][46]
  • Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley — They took $52 billion of share-trading income this year, much of it from lending to hedge funds betting on AI. [36]
  • EQT and its partners — They take Qiagen private at 46.50 euros a share, 8.6% above its last price before the deal. [29]

Who pays

  • China's small savers — They do about 90% of China's daily trading, and the main index they trade is 20% below its June peak. [1]
  • About 5,000 Barclays staff — About 60% of the jobs being cut are support roles, including software developers. [21]
  • Southwest Airlines' passengers — Average fares rose almost 27% as the airline's fuel bill rose $821 million in a quarter. [31][32]
  • France's taxpayers — France's government now pays over 5% to borrow for ten years, more than the US, and every new loan costs more. [24][20]
  • South Africa's budget — The fuel tax cut gives up 10 billion rand of revenue while petrol costs a record 30 rand a litre. [41]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    How much more China's state funds will spend, and when.

    Central Huijin still holds about $188 billion, and Bloomberg Intelligence says the limit is its willingness to spend, not its money. Nobody outside says when it will speed up. [7]

  • 02

    How much of China's fall came from the offshore-trust tax deadline.

    Reuters reported that some wealthy people may have sold shares to pay the tax due by 22 October, but no figures show how many did. [5]

  • 03

    Whether the US and Israel will strike Iran again.

    The report of strike plans comes from unnamed US officials quoted by the New York Times, and President Trump has not approved them. [15][16]

  • 04

    How many of Barclays' 5,000 job cuts are really caused by AI.

    The bank links the cuts to AI, but its chief executive called AI the icing on the cake of a wider technology overhaul and gave no split. [20][21]

  • 05

    How big a premium EQT is really paying for Qiagen.

    Counted from Qiagen's last price before the deal, the offer is 8.6% higher. Counted from early July, before talk of a bid lifted the shares, it is 40.3% higher. [29][30]

  • 06

    Whether France's budget can pass, and whether it would be enough.

    France's government still has no budget for next year, and ING says its deficit goal rests on growth forecasts above ING's own. [24][20]

  • 07

    Whether the Bank of Korea raises its rate again in November.

    Capital Economics expects one more rise, while the Bank of Korea only says it is assessing its last two rises. [26]

04 Hope carry this

South Africa's tax collections came in stronger than planned this year, and its finance minister cut the fuel tax by 3 rand a litre of diesel from 4 November, as petrol passed 30 rand a litre.

Also true today

  • French factory managers grew more confident in October: their index rose to 105, its highest since July 2022.
  • Fewer people who borrowed from Mahindra & Mahindra Financial, a lender for tractors and vehicles in rural India, fell behind on payments: the cost of bad loans dropped to 1.6% of its assets from 2.2%.

Across the beats