US prices rise 0.4% in October, more than forecast, and bets on a bigger US rate rise in December jump

The stories

34 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   US prices rise 0.4% in October, more than forecast, and bets on a bigger US rate rise in December jump

   0.4%

   rise in US consumer prices in October

   economists had expected 0.3% [1]

   3.7%

   yearly pace of core prices over three months to October

   the pace was 1.6% in the three months to July [4]

   3.9-4.0%

   economists' estimates of the yearly rise

   no official figure exists, as October 2025 prices were never collected [1]

   4.725%

   yield on two-year US government bonds

   its biggest one-day rise since April 2025 [4]

   What happened

   • US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than the 0.3% economists had expected. [1]
   • The consumer price index measures what a basket of goods and services costs. [5]
   • Core prices, which leave out food and fuel, rose 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2%. [2]
   • Traders now fully expect the US central bank to raise its rate when it meets on 8 and 9 December. [2]
   • The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the US Labor Department, gave no yearly rise this time. [1]
   • A government shutdown stopped it collecting prices in October 2025, so there was nothing to compare with. [1]
   • Economists estimated the yearly rise at 3.9% to 4.0%. [1] In September it was 3.7%. [1]
   • Some averaged the price levels of September and November 2025 to stand in for the missing month. [1]
   • Shelter, which includes rents and hotel rooms, made up more than 30% of the monthly rise. [1]
   • Food prices rose 0.5%, with beef up 0.9% and snacks up 1.0%. [1]
   • One economist said higher transport costs may finally be reaching grocery prices. [1]
   • "It's uncomfortably high," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. [11]
   • Petrol rose 1.0% in October, after jumping 9.1% in September. [1]
   • Electricity rose 0.9%, which CNBC called a possible side effect of the AI building boom. [2]
   • It was the third month running that prices rose 0.4% or more. [1]
   • Core prices rose at a 3.7% yearly pace over the three months to October. [4] Over the three months to July, the pace was 1.6%. [4]
   • Pay rose 3.1% in a year, while prices rose about 4%. [3] It was the 7th month running that prices beat pay. [3]
   • Christopher Waller, a governor of the US central bank, spoke in London before the figures came out. [6]
   • He said a half-point rise should be considered if core prices rose about 0.3%, and they did. [4]
   • "Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk," he said. [6] That is a rise of a quarter of a percentage point in the rate. [6]
   • The US central bank's rate is 3.75% to 4% after officials held it in October. [2] They had raised it in September. [13]
   • The yield, or interest rate, on two-year US government bonds rose 0.18 points to 4.725%. [4]
   • That was its biggest one-day rise since April 2025. [4] The two-year yield moves with what traders expect the US central bank to do. [3]
   • The Nasdaq, an index heavy in tech firms, fell 0.7%. [7] The S&P 500 of big US companies fell 0.4%. [7]

   % yearly pace

   Three months to July1.6

   Three months to October3.7

   Who is involved

   • Christopher Waller a governor of the US central bank; he said a half-point rise should be considered
   • The Bureau of Labor Statistics the part of the US Labor Department that counts prices; it published no yearly rise this time
   • Michelle Bowman another US central bank governor; she warned of a share fall if AI disappoints

   How it unfolded

   1. September rate raised
   2. Oct 2026 it holds the rate at 3.75% to 4% [2]
   3. Oct 2025 a government shutdown stops price collection [1]
   4. Sep 2026 the US central bank raises its rate [13]
   5. 10 Nov prices rise 0.4% in October [1]
   6. 8-9 Dec the next rate decision [2]

   Why it matters

   Higher interest rates could strain housing and small firms, said Michelle Bowman, another US central bank governor. [13]

   Morningstar's economist Preston Caldwell said more figures like this would likely bring several rises in 2027. [9]

   Futures now price in about three quarter-point rises by June, Bloomberg reported. [8]

   Kevin Warsh is the chair Donald Trump picked for the US central bank. [10] Trump wants cuts, but a second rise now looks certain. [10]

   How it works

   Statisticians call the month a yearly change is measured from the base period.

   With no October 2025 prices collected, there was no base, so no official yearly rise could be worked out. [1]

   Seen it before

   A runner who missed last year's race cannot say how much faster she ran this year.

   The truth

   • What is really going on US prices rose 0.4% in October, more than forecast. [1]Two US central bank officials now openly discuss faster rate rises. [4]
   • The yearly rates in the news are estimates, built from nearby months or from other price data. [1]
   • Odds of a half-point rise differed by source and hour: Barron's put them at 9.5%. [7] CNBC put them at 13.6%. [2]
   • Who gains Savers lending to the US government for short periods — Two-year US bonds now pay 4.725%, so new money lent for two years earns more. [4]
   • Who pays US home buyers and small firms — Higher interest rates strain home buying and small business investment, Bowman warned. [13]
   • Who pays US workers — Prices have outrun pay for 7 months, so each pay packet buys less. [3]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What the official yearly US inflation rate was in October.

     No prices were collected in October 2025, so every yearly figure is an estimate. [1] Oxford Economics put it at 3.9%. [5] The New York Times put it at about 4%. [3]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US central bank raises its rate by a quarter or a half point in December.

     Waller said a half point should be considered. [4] Traders still gave that only about a 10% chance. [12]

   What comes next

   The US central bank next decides on its rate on 8 and 9 December. [2]

1. 02

   Anthropic sets a price for its share sale

   What happened

   • Anthropic, maker of the Claude chatbot, set a price range of $70 to $78 a share for its debut. [16]
   • At $78 it would be worth about $1.4 trillion, counting staff share options. [15] Without those, about $1 trillion. [15]
   • It and some existing owners aim to raise up to $64.4 billion. [15]
   • Seven tech firms, including Google and Nvidia, will buy another $26 billion of shares. [16]
   • Its revenue in the six months to June was $16.2 billion, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier. [17]

   Who is involved

   Anthropic was founded in 2021 by Dario and Daniela Amodei and others who had worked at OpenAI. [17]

   • Dario Amodei co-founder
   • Daniela Amodei co-founder

   How it unfolded

   In May, a funding round valued the company at $965 billion. [16]

   1. 18 Nov price set
   2. 19 Nov trading starts

   Why it matters

   Investors see the sale as a test of whether the AI boom's huge spending will pay off. [15]

   Australians can apply for shares through brokers such as CommSec until 17 November. [20]

   How it works

   Finance calls counting every share that could exist a fully diluted value.

   Staff options count as shares in the $1.4 trillion figure, so the same price gives a bigger total. [15]

   Seen it before

   A baker counting the cakes still in the oven, at the same price, says the batch is worth more.

   Why a yearly rise depends on last year's number as much as this year's

   Statisticians call last year's number the base: a yearly change is measured against it, so an odd or missing base changes the figure.

   The twist

   A yearly change is measured against last year's number, so an odd year-ago number can move the result as much as anything that happened this year.

   The picture

   CoreWeave, a year earlier$1.36 billion

   CoreWeave, July to September$3.66 billion

   Step by step

   1. 1 A yearly change compares now with a year ago
   2. 2 The year-ago number is the base
   3. 3 A small base turns a modest gain into a huge percentage
   4. 4 A big base makes a fall look steep
   5. 5 A missing base leaves no figure at all

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • CoreWeave's revenue jump

     Revenue of $3.66 billion is 168% more because the year-ago base was only about $1.36 billion.

   • SoftBank's $7 billion loss

     The swing looks so large partly because the same months last year held a 2.5 trillion yen profit.

   • Anthropic's share sale

     Its revenue rose from $1.1 billion to $16.2 billion in a year, a huge multiple built on a small start.

   • Commonwealth Bank's profit

     Its $2.8 billion was flat on recent quarters but up 8% on a year earlier, so the base chosen changes the story.

   Where you've seen this

   Football clubs

   a team that scored 10 goals last season can be up 100% with 20, while a top side adding 10 grows far less

   School results

   a school whose results fell one year shows a big jump the next, even if teaching did not change

   Shops after a closure

   sales after a forced closure can soar against the closed months, then look flat a year later

   The catch

   The base explains part of a big percentage, never all of it: CoreWeave's revenue really did grow by more than $2 billion.

   And the whole of it

   Shoppers in Ohio, savers in Tokyo and workers at CoreWeave all live inside figures measured against last year. A US government shutdown in 2025 decided what could be said about US prices in 2026, and nobody in today's stories chose that.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Anthropic set its price range below the $2 trillion talked about in the summer. [18]
   • Anthropic is still losing money: its loss before tax was $80.7 billion in the six months to June. [17]
   • Business Insider says the sale could be the biggest ever, above SpaceX's $75 billion. [14] Fortune says it would fall short of SpaceX's record. [18]
   • Reports of its value differ: the BBC gives $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion. [17] Reuters gives up to $1.4 trillion, counting staff options. [15]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What price Anthropic's shares will trade at on their first day.

     A contract on Hyperliquid, a crypto exchange, implies about $98 a share. [19] CNBC says a first-day price is nearly impossible to guess. [19]

   What comes next

   People familiar told CNBC it will price on 18 November and start trading on 19 November. [16]

1. 03

   SoftBank loses $7 billion in three months

   What happened

   • SoftBank Group, a Japanese tech investor, lost 1.12 trillion yen, about $7.1 billion, from July to September. [21]
   • In the same months a year earlier, it made a profit of 2.5 trillion yen. [21]
   • Analysts had expected a profit of about 129 billion yen. [23]
   • Falls in shares it owns, such as Arm, Intel and Coupang, dragged it down. [23]
   • In the six months to September it lost $3.7 billion on early payments for US data-centre power equipment. [24]
   • Its financing costs more than doubled to 462 billion yen. [21]
   • It has put $64.6 billion into OpenAI for a 13% stake. [21] OpenAI is the company behind ChatGPT. [17]

   Why it matters

   Its shares fell as much as 10.5% in Tokyo on Wednesday. [21]

   Investors treat SoftBank as a stand-in for views on OpenAI and on AI shares in general. [23]

   How it works

   Accountants record a loss when money already paid will no longer buy what it was meant to.

   SoftBank paid early for power equipment, fearing shortages, then changed its plans and booked the loss. [24]

   Seen it before

   A deposit paid on a holiday you then cancel is money you may not get back.

   The swing looks so large partly because the same months last year held a 2.5 trillion yen profit.

   The idea, in story 02: Why a yearly rise depends on last year's number as much as this year's →

   The truth

   • SoftBank says it could get rebates of up to $2.1 billion on future purchases. [25]
   • It still values its OpenAI stake at $99.6 billion, the same as in March. [22]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much of SoftBank's $3.7 billion loss on power equipment it will get back.

     The rebates it expects come only on future purchases, which it has not yet made. [25]

2. 04

   Nvidia's slide reaches a second day

   What happened

   • Nvidia, the chip company at the heart of the AI boom, fell 5.47% on Tuesday. [26]
   • That followed a fall of more than 4% on Monday. [26]
   • Mint reported a fall of 6.3%, to a seven-month low of $166.5. [27]
   • Nvidia's board hired Wachtell, a New York law firm, to check whether he was a target of foreign spying. [29]
   • Shareholders filed a lawsuit saying Nvidia and Huang misled them. [28]

   Who is involved

   Its boss, Jensen Huang, told staff he had been unfaithful to his wife. [28] Reports name Alice Huang, whom US officials reportedly see as a Chinese spy. [26]

   • Jensen Huang Nvidia's boss
   • Alice Huang a Megaspeed executive

   Why it matters

   The fall cut about $10 billion from Huang's own wealth. [27]

   Investors follow Huang closely because he leads the company at the heart of the AI boom. [27]

   How it works

   Corporate governance calls this an independent investigation: outsiders, not managers, look into the boss.

   Nvidia's independent board members hired Joon Kim of Wachtell, a former top Manhattan prosecutor, to lead it. [29]

   Seen it before

   When a team captain is accused of cheating, a referee, not the captain, checks what happened.

   The truth

   • Last month Nvidia called Huang's interaction with Alice Huang "not unusual or unexpected." [28] The lawsuit says that statement was false. [28]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What the inquiry into Jensen Huang will find.

     Nvidia's board hired Wachtell this week, and the inquiry has only just begun. [29]

   What comes next

   Nvidia reports its quarterly results on 17 November. [27]

3. 05

   Gold falls nearly 3% after the US price figures

   What happened

   • Gold fell 2.7% to $4,028.39 an ounce on Tuesday after the US price figures came out. [12]
   • The dollar and US government bond yields rose at the same time. [12]
   • Bets on a half-point US rate rise in December climbed to 10% from 0%. [12]

   Why it matters

   A stronger dollar makes gold dearer for buyers who pay in other money. [12]

   How it works

   Economists call it opportunity cost: what you give up by holding one thing instead of another.

   Gold pays no interest, so when bond yields rise, holding gold means giving up more interest. [12]

   Seen it before

   Money kept in a drawer earns nothing, while money in a savings account earns interest.

   The truth

   • Standard Chartered, a bank, noted gold still trades above the key $4,000 mark. [12]
4. 06

   Oil falls below $90 a barrel

   What happened

   • Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell nearly 3% to $89.66 a barrel on Tuesday. [30]
   • That was its lowest since 31 August. [30] It had already dropped nearly 6% on Monday. [30]
   • Donald Trump, the US president, said on Tuesday that more military action against Iran did not seem necessary. [30]
   • In London, BP fell 1.7% and Shell 1.5%, while the airline Lufthansa rose 1.8%. [30]

   Why it matters

   India's three state fuel sellers have gained 10% to 13.5% this month as crude fell. [31]

   Cheaper oil cut bets on more UK rate rises, and sterling fell 0.1% to $1.3429. [32]

   How it works

   Economists call the extra in a price for feared trouble a risk premium.

   Traders had paid more in case the war cut supplies, and Trump's words eased that fear. [31]

   Seen it before

   Umbrellas sell for more when rain is forecast, and less once the sky clears.

   The truth

   • Traders stayed cautious, as Trump had said similar things before military action resumed. [31]
   • Who gains Airlines such as Lufthansa — Fuel is a large cost for them, and their shares rose on hopes of cheaper fuel. [30]
   • Who gains India's state fuel sellers HPCL, BPCL and IOC — They buy crude to make fuel, and their shares rose as crude fell. [31]

   Good news

   • Brent crude fell to $89.66 a barrel, its lowest price since 31 August.
5. 07

   CoreWeave's revenue jumps 168%

   What happened

   • CoreWeave, an AI computing company, had revenue of $3.66 billion from July to September. [33]
   • That was 168% more than the roughly $1.36 billion of a year earlier. [33]
   • Analysts had expected $3.55 billion. [33]
   • Its net loss grew to $709 million from $110 million a year earlier. [33]
   • It raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $13 billion to $13.3 billion. [33]

   Why it matters

   Its shares are down 65% from their May high, as investors doubt AI spending. [34]

   CNBC said the results showed demand for AI computing remains strong. [33]

   How it works

   Accountants keep revenue, the money coming in, apart from profit, what is left after costs.

   CoreWeave's revenue rose 168%, but its costs grew faster, so its loss grew too. [33]

   Seen it before

   A lemonade stand that sells more cups but buys dearer lemons can still lose money.

   Revenue of $3.66 billion is 168% more because the year-ago base was only about $1.36 billion.

   The idea, in story 02: Why a yearly rise depends on last year's number as much as this year's →
6. 08

   A US central bank governor warns about AI shares

   What happened

   • Michelle Bowman, a governor of the US central bank, spoke in Washington on Tuesday. [13] She warned shares could fall hard if AI investments disappoint. [13]
   • "Lower equity prices could undermine the resilience in consumer spending," she said. [13]
   • She also warned of a sharp rise in longer-term borrowing rates. [13]
   • She said she could support a rate rise in December, as inflation pressures persist. [13]

   How it unfolded

   The US central bank held its rate in October after a quarter-point rise in September, its first since 2023. [13]

   1. September first rise since 2023
   2. October rate held

   Why it matters

   Falling shares would make shoppers less able to keep spending, she said. [13]

   How it works

   Economists call it the wealth effect: people spend more when what they own rises in value.

   Bowman's worry is the reverse: if AI shares fall, owners feel poorer and spend less. [13]

   Seen it before

   A family whose savings shrink often skips the holiday that year.

7. 09

   Brazil readies savings to calm markets

   What happened

   • Brazil's government will soon set out savings worth 0.5% of its economy for 2027, a government source said. [35]
   • That is 70 billion to 80 billion reais, or $12.5 billion to $14.3 billion. [35]
   • One idea is a new cut to tax breaks. [35]

   How it unfolded

   Markets sold off after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was re-elected in late October. [35]

   Investors doubted his government would save enough to steady its debt. [35]

   Why it matters

   Lula's spending promises helped push the real, Brazil's currency, sharply lower. [37] They also pushed long-term interest rates up. [37]

   How it works

   Economists call it fiscal credibility: lenders charge less when they trust a government to control its debt.

   Markets sold on doubts about Brazil's debt, so Brazil's government is now naming cuts to win back trust. [35]

   Seen it before

   A friend who owes you money gets another loan only after showing a plan to pay.

   The truth

   • The plan comes from an unnamed source, and the finance ministry did not comment. [35]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Brazil's savings plan will be big enough to calm lenders.

     Its details come from one unnamed source, and the bill has not been presented yet. [35]

   What comes next

   A lawmaker backed by Brazil's government, rather than by ministers, is set to present the bill. [35]

8. 10

   Brazil's central bank holds the line on rates

   What happened

   • Brazil's central bank kept its main rate, the Selic, at 13.75% last week, pausing its cuts. [36]
   • Minutes released on Tuesday named four shocks behind higher prices. [36]
   • It said slow growth and weak demand could stop those shocks turning into lasting inflation. [36]
   • Diogo Guillen, chief economist at Itau, a bank, said that sets a high bar for rate rises. [36]
   • Hours later, governor Gabriel Galipolo said the bank would keep fighting inflation with tight policy. [37]

   Who is involved

   • Diogo Guillen Itau's chief economist
   • Gabriel Galipolo governor of Brazil's central bank

   Why it matters

   ABC Brasil, a bank, now expects the rate to stay at 13.75% until at least the end of 2027. [36]

   How it works

   Economists call these supply shocks: prices pushed up by costs, not by shoppers spending more. [36]

   The bank expects weak demand to stop firms passing those costs on, so it held rather than raised. [36]

   Seen it before

   A shop with few customers cannot raise its prices much, however dear its stock gets.

   The truth

   • Analysts read the minutes as soft. [37] Hours later, the governor stressed fighting inflation. [37]
9. 11

   Brazil's loan funds draw money as defaults rise

   What happened

   • Brazil's central bank is worried about FIDCs, funds that buy pools of loans often made by fintech firms. [38]
   • Some in the market call them shadow banks, because they face lighter rules than banks. [38]
   • Money in them rose 14% this year to 978.8 billion reais, or $178 billion. [38]
   • They have doubled in three years, says Uqbar, a data firm. [38]
   • Defaults keep climbing, and there have been several big fraud cases. [38]

   Why it matters

   Brazil's very high interest rates draw savers into products like these. [38]

   How it works

   Lending done outside banks, under lighter rules, is called shadow banking.

   With lighter rules, buyers see less about the loans inside, which is what worries Brazil's central bank. [38]

   Seen it before

   Buying a sealed mystery box means trusting what the seller says is inside.

   The truth

   • The extra return these funds pay over safer loans is shrinking, even as defaults rise. [38]
10. 12

    Chile's pension funds cut their losses on US rate bets

    What happened

    • Chile's private pension funds, called AFPs, had $2.9 billion of paper losses on US rate bets at end-October. [39]
    • That was down from $7.7 billion at the end of September. [39]

    How it unfolded

    For two years they had bet that US bond yields would fall. [39]

    Yields rose this year instead, and politicians attacked the funds over the risk. [39]

    Why it matters

    US 10-year yields fell more than 0.3 points in October, their biggest monthly drop since 2023. [39]

    Yields have edged up again in November, which could renew the pressure. [39]

    How it works

    Accountants call it mark-to-market: valuing a holding at today's price, whether sold or not. [39]

    When US yields fell in October, the bets were worth more, so the paper loss shrank. [39]

    Seen it before

    A football card's price can halve and recover without its owner ever selling it.

    The truth

    • It is unclear how much came from rates and how much from funds closing their bets. [39]

    Good news

    • Chile's pension funds cut their paper losses on US interest-rate bets from $7.7 billion to $2.9 billion in a month.
11. 13

    Dangote's refinery draws $4.1 billion of orders

    What happened

    • Dangote's refinery in Nigeria drew about $4.1 billion of orders for its share sale. [40]
    • That is almost three times the $1.6 billion it aimed to raise. [40]
    • It is the largest share sale in Africa so far. [40]
    • About $1.9 billion came from Nigeria and $2.1 billion from abroad, people familiar said. [40]

    Who is involved

    It is Africa's biggest refinery, owned by Aliko Dangote, Africa's richest man. [40]

    • Aliko Dangote Africa's richest man
    • The refinery Africa's biggest

    Why it matters

    Nigerian pension managers for about 11 million members asked for shares too. [40]

    How it works

    Bankers call it oversubscription: more money offered for shares than shares on sale.

    South Africa's state pension manager asked for a big slice, which extra shares sold by owners could cover. [40]

    Seen it before

    When 300 people want 100 concert tickets, the seller decides who gets them.

    The truth

    • The order figures come from unnamed people, and Dangote's spokesman declined to comment. [40]
    • Who gains African pension funds and savers — They can buy into Africa's biggest refinery at home, without going through Wall Street or London. [40]

    Good news

    • Applications came from all 54 African countries, close to 4 million of them. [40]
12. 14

    Alibaba plans a listing for its chip unit

    What happened

    • Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, won approval from Hong Kong's stock exchange to spin off its chip unit, T-Head. [41]
    • T-Head makes chips for data centres in China. [42]
    • Alibaba gave no size or value for the sale. [42]

    How it unfolded

    In September it unveiled an AI chip it says is 3 times as powerful as its May model. [41]

    Chinese firms such as Huawei build their own chips as US rules limit China's access. [41]

    Why it matters

    Alibaba's Hong Kong shares fell 1% on Wednesday and are down about 29% this year. [41]

    How it works

    Finance calls it a spin-off: a parent company sells shares in one part of itself.

    Alibaba keeps control of T-Head but can raise outside money for it and get a market price. [42]

    Seen it before

    A family bakery that sells a share in its cake shop keeps the bakery and gets cash.

    The truth

    • The listing still needs approval from the exchange and China's securities regulator. [41]
13. 15

    Honda will build a $3 billion hybrid plant in Ohio

    What happened

    • Honda, the Japanese carmaker, will build a $3 billion factory in Ohio to make hybrid cars. [43]
    • It will create 2,000 jobs and make 240,000 vehicles a year from 2029. [43]
    • Its US capacity will rise to 1.3 million vehicles a year. [43]
    • It also plans another $338 million in Ohio and new spending in Georgia and Alabama. [43]

    Why it matters

    Honda is shifting to hybrids and changing its electric car plans amid US tariffs. [43]

    How it works

    Economists call public money that keeps factories at home industrial policy.

    Canada's government is putting C$313 million into Honda's plant at Alliston, Ontario. [43] Honda employs 4,000 people in Canada. [43]

    Seen it before

    A town that pays for a new sports hall hopes the team stays.

    Good news

    • Honda will build a $3 billion factory in Ohio that will employ 2,000 people from 2029.
14. 16

    Australia's new home loans fall by a record

    What happened

    • The value of new home loans in Australia fell 15.5% in the three months to September. [44]
    • It was the biggest quarterly fall since the series began in 2002. [44]
    • The fall was almost double what economists had forecast. [44]

    How it unfolded

    The Reserve Bank of Australia, the country's central bank, has raised rates fast to fight inflation. [44]

    Why it matters

    Australians are borrowing less to buy homes as rates rise. [44]

    How it works

    Economists call the way a rate rise reaches people the transmission of monetary policy.

    The RBA's rate rises made loans dearer, and new home lending fell 15.5% in three months. [44]

    Seen it before

    When the bus fare rises, fewer people take the bus.

    The truth

    • The ASX 200 share index still edged up 0.1% that afternoon. [44]
15. 17

    More of Commonwealth Bank's home loans fall behind

    What happened

    • Commonwealth Bank, Australia's biggest bank, said more home loans are over 90 days late. [45]
    • They rose by 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage points, to 0.80% of its home loans. [45]
    • It made $2.8 billion profit in the quarter to September. [45]
    • That was flat on earlier quarters but up 8% on a year earlier. [45]

    Why it matters

    CBA blamed higher interest rates and inflation squeezing households. [45]

    Earlier this week ANZ, another big bank, reported a similar rise. [45]

    How it works

    Bankers call money set aside for loans that may go bad a provision.

    CBA set aside $105 million because more borrowers are behind, before any loss is certain. [45]

    Seen it before

    Saving a little each month in case your phone breaks.

    Its $2.8 billion was flat on recent quarters but up 8% on a year earlier, so the base chosen changes the story.

    The idea, in story 02: Why a yearly rise depends on last year's number as much as this year's →

    The truth

    • Actual losses lag behind late payments, so they are still below pre-pandemic levels. [45]
    • Who pays Australian home owners behind on payments — Higher rates and prices pushed more CBA borrowers more than 90 days late. [45]
    • Nobody knows yet

      Whether Australia's fall in home loans has further to go.

      The figures run only to September, and Commonwealth Bank says late payments are still rising. [45]

16. 18

    Macquarie pays a $14 million penalty over a savings offer

    What happened

    • Macquarie Bank will pay a $14 million penalty over a savings account offer. [46]
    • ASIC, Australia's company regulator, said the bank admitted breaking the Corporations Act. [46]
    • From December 2021 to September 2022, it called a "welcome rate" a "bonus". [46]
    • Customers could think it came on top of the normal rate, but it replaced it. [46]
    • As rates rose in 2022, the normal rate could rise above the welcome rate. [46]

    How it unfolded

    1. Dec 2021 the offer starts
    2. Sep 2022 the offer ends

    Why it matters

    Then customers got only the normal rate, with no bonus at all. [46]

    How it works

    Lawyers call wording likely to give customers a false idea misleading conduct.

    Calling a replacement rate a "bonus" suggested an extra on top, which it was not. [46]

    Seen it before

    A sign saying free gift, when the gift replaces part of what you paid for.

    Good news

    • Macquarie has already paid $8.8 million back to nearly 40,000 customers. [46]

    What comes next

    The court still has to approve the penalty the two sides proposed. [46]

17. 19

    David Jones will close half its stores

    What happened

    • David Jones, a 188-year-old Australian department store chain, will close 19 of its 38 stores. [47]
    • Sites include Parramatta in Sydney and stores on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. [47]

    How it unfolded

    It went into voluntary administration less than a week ago. [47]

    It had stopped paying rent to Westfield, a big landlord, in September. [47]

    1. Last week voluntary administration
    2. Now 19 stores to close

    Why it matters

    Staff at the stores that will close are being briefed now. [47]

    How it works

    Insolvency law calls it receivership: a lender's agent takes control to get its money back.

    FTI Consulting, the receiver, acts for David Jones's main lender, Hilco, and confirmed the closures. [47]

    Seen it before

    If you stop paying for a borrowed bike, its owner can take it back.

    The truth

    • Five Westfield stores had already been flagged because they ran at a loss. [47]
    • Who pays David Jones staff at the closing stores — Their stores are among the 19 the receiver is closing. [47]
18. 20

    Workers strike at a refinery Alcoa is buying

    What happened

    • More than 100 workers at South32's Worsley alumina refinery began a 48-hour strike. [48]
    • The refinery, 200 kilometres south of Perth, turns raw bauxite into alumina. [48]
    • Unions say South32 staff earn less and work longer hours than Alcoa's. [48]

    How it unfolded

    Alcoa, a US miner, agreed in July to buy it in a deal worth more than $8 billion. [48]

    Why it matters

    The unions want a new pay deal before the owner changes in the first half of 2027. [48]

    How it works

    Labour economists call this bargaining power: a side gains leverage when timing works for it.

    With a sale due, unions are pressing to lock in terms before Alcoa takes over. [48]

    Seen it before

    Asking for more pocket money just before a big family trip.

    The truth

    • The strike falls during a planned shutdown at the main processing plant. [48]
19. 21

    Kalshi may face charges from its regulator

    What happened

    • The CFTC, the US regulator for futures markets, warned Kalshi it may soon face charges, Politico reported. [49]
    • The probe asks whether Kalshi failed to tell the agency properly about dozens of new products. [49]
    • Kalshi said the warning "is about a procedural error." [49]

    Who is involved

    Kalshi runs a prediction market, where people bet on events, and is valued at $40 billion. [49]

    Why it matters

    Prediction markets have grown fast since Donald Trump's election two years ago. [49]

    Democrats, fresh from their wins, plan tougher oversight in the next US Congress. [49]

    How it works

    Market rules call it self-certification: an exchange vouches that a new product follows the rules. [49]

    A product can go live the next day without the CFTC's approval, so the filing must be right. [49]

    Seen it before

    A pupil who marks their own homework must be honest, because nobody checks first.

    The truth

    • The report rests on one unnamed person, and the CFTC did not immediately comment. [49]
    • Nobody knows yet

      Whether Kalshi will actually be charged.

      The CFTC has so far only warned it, and Kalshi calls the issue a procedural error. [49]

20. 22

    Polymarket says its revenue rate passed $1.8 billion

    What happened

    • Polymarket, a rival betting market, says its yearly revenue rate has passed $1.8 billion. [50]
    • In June it was above $1 billion. [50]
    • Its US exchange handled $14.5 billion of bets in October, up from $4 billion in June. [50]
    • The football World Cup and the start of the NFL season drove much of it. [50]
    • Combo bets, which join several bets in one, made up more than 70% of Sunday's trading. [50]

    Why it matters

    It faces scrutiny from its federal regulator. [50]

    How it works

    Firms call it a run rate: a recent stretch of revenue, stretched out to a full year.

    Polymarket's $1.8 billion is annualized revenue, not a year of money actually taken. [50]

    Seen it before

    One busy week at a lemonade stand does not promise a busy year.

    The truth

    • The $1.8 billion figure is Polymarket's own, given to CNBC. [50]
21. 23

    Wall Street bonuses set to grow

    What happened

    • Bonuses at big US banks and investment firms are set to grow this year, says Johnson Associates, a pay consultancy. [51]
    • Record share sales, AI financings and busy markets drove the year. [51]
    • "Firms now value the best people more than they ever have," said Alan Johnson. [51]
    • The pay will tilt toward top performers rather than being spread evenly. [51]

    Why it matters

    Rising rates, a souring AI trade and the Democrats' wins could darken 2027. [51]

    How it works

    Labour economists call it pay for performance: more of a worker's pay depends on results.

    In a good year, banks now give a bigger share of the bonus pool to their best staff. [51]

    Seen it before

    A team that hands most of its prize money to its top scorers.

    The truth

    • Banks want to avoid 2021, when one-off bonuses became expected every year. [51]
    • Who gains Top performers on Wall Street — Banks plan to give more of a bigger bonus pool to their best staff. [51]
22. 24

    State funds lose $30.5 billion on AI shares

    What happened

    • Government investment funds' listed AI holdings have lost $30.5 billion since the end of June. [52]
    • GlobalSWF, a consultancy that tracks funds owned by governments, made the estimate. [52]
    • Such funds and public pensions hold about $335.5 billion of AI exposure. [52]
    • Abu Dhabi's Mubadala may have lost $17.5 billion, mostly on a fall of over 50% in GlobalFoundries. [52]
    • Saudi Arabia's PIF lost an estimated $5.64 billion, mostly on its SpaceX holding. [52]

    Why it matters

    GlobalSWF expects the funds to keep backing AI and buy more where prices fall. [52]

    How it works

    Investors call it concentration risk: when much of a portfolio rides on one theme or one share.

    Mubadala leaned heavily on GlobalFoundries, a chipmaker, so one share's fall cost most of its loss. [52]

    Seen it before

    A sticker album filled with one team's stickers loses value if that team goes down.

    The truth

    • What is really going on In the same days, money kept leaving AI shares. [52]
    • The losses are estimates from disclosed holdings, not the funds' own figures. [52]
23. 25

    ADNOC Gas raises its profit outlook

    What happened

    • ADNOC Gas, a Gulf gas exporter, raised its full-year profit outlook by at least 14%. [53]
    • Its third-quarter profit was $1.3 billion, double its forecast. [53]
    • Soaring prices for LNG, gas chilled into liquid for shipping, drove it. [53]
    • Its exports are still slightly below where they were when the US-Iran war began. [53]

    Why it matters

    Gulf LNG exports in October reached their highest since the war began. [53]

    It is weighing a new export terminal at Fujairah to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. [53]

    How it works

    Economists call a profit that comes from events, not from selling more, a windfall.

    ADNOC Gas sold slightly less, but prices soared, so its profit doubled the forecast. [53]

    Seen it before

    The last ice cream van at a hot beach can charge more for every cone.

    The truth

    • Its chief executive called a possible future glut "market creation". [53]
    • Who gains ADNOC Gas — High LNG prices pay it more for every cargo it ships. [53]
24. 26

    A Bank of England deputy warns about young people's jobs

    What happened

    • Clare Lombardelli, a deputy governor of the Bank of England, said young Britons are bearing the brunt. [54]
    • She called it a "low-gear economy", with firms freezing hiring but cutting few jobs. [54]
    • She blamed uncertainty from the war in the Middle East and its jump in energy prices. [54]

    Who is involved

    • Clare Lombardelli Bank of England deputy governor

    How it unfolded

    The Bank raised its rate last week for the first time in three years. [54]

    Why it matters

    She said next month's rate decision is "live", meaning it could go either way. [54]

    How it works

    Labour economists call it low hire, low fire: firms keep staff but stop adding. [54]

    Young people need new jobs, so a hiring freeze reaches them before people already in work. [54]

    Seen it before

    When a club stops taking new members, the people waiting outside feel it first.

    The truth

    • Who pays Young people looking for work in Britain — Firms are freezing hiring, so first-time job-seekers find fewer openings. [54]
25. 27

    Fund managers hunt bargains in emerging markets

    What happened

    • Fund managers are looking for bargains in emerging markets after the AI sell-off. [55]
    • SK Hynix, Samsung and TSMC, three chip giants, make up almost 30% of the main MSCI emerging-market index. [55]
    • Their falls dragged the index to a seven-month low on Friday. [55]
    • By one measure, these markets are the cheapest since the financial crisis 18 years ago. [55]

    Why it matters

    Janus Henderson's Sat Duhra has added higher-paying shares in China and Hong Kong. [55]

    Others point to South American power firms and banks in central and eastern Europe. [55]

    How it works

    Index makers weight each company by its market value, so the biggest firms count most.

    The three chip giants are almost 30% of the index, so their falls dragged it down. [55]

    Seen it before

    In a class's average height, one very tall pupil lifts the whole average.

26. 28

    India's small investors sell many shares but crowd into a few

    What happened

    • Small investors in India cut holdings in 49.4% of listed companies in July to September. [56]
    • That was up from 47.5% in the quarter before, a Mint study of 4,729 companies found. [56]
    • Reliance gained 401,762 small shareholders and HDFC Bank 273,525. [56]
    • Bajaj Auto lost 353,533 small shareholders. [56]

    Why it matters

    One platform boss, Vedant Gupte, read it as a clean-up of portfolios, not a loss of faith. [56]

    The truth

    • The figures cannot show whether the same people sold one share and bought another. [56]
27. 29

    India's rich move money into property

    What happened

    • Rich Indian investors are moving money into property and warehouses after two years of weak share returns. [57]
    • At least six new funds this year seek more than $1.25 billion for property and infrastructure. [57]
    • Nuvama Wealth, which oversees $39 billion of client money, is one firm leaning in. [57]

    Why it matters

    Family offices, which invest for rich families, are moving more into private loans and infrastructure. [57]

    Elsewhere, rich investors have piled into shares linked to the AI boom. [57]

    How it works

    Investors call steady income from rent or interest yield.

    After weak share returns, buildings that pay rent offer income whatever share prices do. [57]

    Seen it before

    Renting out a spare room pays every month, whatever house prices do.

28. 30

    Tata Steel's profit rises on higher prices

    What happened

    • Tata Steel's profit before interest, tax and plant wear rose 18% to 10,500 crore rupees in July to September. [58]
    • Revenue rose 11% to 65,450 crore rupees, though it sold the same 7.92 million tonnes. [58]
    • Steel prices in India were up 14% on a year earlier. [58]
    • Profit at its Dutch arm fell 14% after a plant was shut over environmental breaches in April. [58]

    Why it matters

    Coking coal, a key cost, is rising by about $15 a tonne. [58]

    How it works

    Economists split a rise in sales into price and volume.

    Tata sold the same amount of steel, so the rise came from higher prices. [58]

    Seen it before

    A lemonade stand selling the same cups at a higher price earns more.

29. 31

    Fossil returns to profit

    What happened

    • Fossil, the US watchmaker, returned to profit in its third quarter. [59]
    • Its operating income was $25.3 million, against a $21.7 million loss a year earlier. [59]
    • Net sales rose 0.4% to $271.2 million. [59]
    • It also raised its full-year forecast. [59]

    How it unfolded

    It was the first yearly sales rise since early 2022. [59]

    Why it matters

    Its boss, Franco Fogliato, said shrinking the company did most to fix its finances. [59]

    How it works

    Business schools call this a turnaround: cut back to what makes money, then grow again.

    Fossil sold more at full price and cut costs, so a small sales rise became a profit. [59]

    Seen it before

    A bakery that stops baking bread nobody buys can earn more from fewer loaves.

    Good news

    • Fossil, the US watchmaker, made an operating profit of $25.3 million from July to September, after a loss a year earlier. Its sales rose for the first time since early 2022.
30. 32

    Ticket resellers StubHub and Vivid Seats miss targets

    What happened

    • StubHub, a ticket resale site, had revenue of $502 million and profit of $33.6 million last quarter. [60]
    • Both missed analysts' targets, and its shares fell 4.4% after hours on Tuesday. [60]
    • Vivid Seats, a rival, also missed, and its shares are near $1.49. [60]
    • Vivid Seats was worth nearly $2 billion when it listed in 2021, and is now under $17 million. [60]
    • StubHub's market value is about $2.2 billion, against $8.6 billion when it listed. [60]

    Why it matters

    It happened despite a busy sports season, including the end of the World Cup. [60]

    How it works

    Finance calls swapping loans for shares a debt-for-equity swap.

    Vivid Seats plans to cut its debt by about $200 million this way, so current owners hold less. [60]

    Seen it before

    Paying back a friend with part of your lemonade stand instead of cash.

    The truth

    • House Democrats are asking about StubHub boss Eric Baker's work at another resale firm. [60]
    • Who pays Vivid Seats' current shareholders — Lenders will swap much of its debt for shares, so current owners will hold a smaller slice. [60]
31. 33

    Singapore opens a gold vault for central banks

    What happened

    • Singapore's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, opened a gold vault for foreign central banks. [61]
    • It can hold 500 tonnes of gold at first. [61]
    • Singapore also plans tax breaks for gold services such as storing and refining. [61]

    Why it matters

    It wants to rival London and Switzerland as more gold trading moves to Asia. [61]

    How it works

    Economists call it a network effect: traders go where other traders already are.

    London vaults held about 9,850 tonnes at end-October, so traders already gather there. [61]

    Seen it before

    Everyone joins the group chat that already has their friends in it.

    What comes next

    A gold clearing system is due to start in early 2027. [61]

32. 34

    EU business chief warns factories could stop competing with China

    What happened

    • Jens Eskelund heads the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. [62] He warned EU manufacturers could stop trying to compete with China by 2030. [62]
    • The EU's trade gap with China runs at a record 1.18 billion euros a day. [62]
    • Goldman Sachs forecasts Chinese exports will cut EU output by 0.5% by 2030, and Germany's by up to 0.9%. [62]
    • He suggested European firms join Chinese supply chains rather than fight them. [62]

    Who is involved

    • Jens Eskelund EU Chamber of Commerce in China

    Why it matters

    European governments are leaning toward protecting their own industries. [62]

    The truth

    • The Goldman figures are a forecast of what may happen, not a measure of what has. [62]