The IEA says the world's oil supply is back in surplus for the first time since the Iran war began, and oil heads for a second weekly fall

The stories

32 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   The IEA says the world's oil supply is back in surplus for the first time since the Iran war began, and oil heads for a second weekly fall

   2 million

   barrels a day: how far oil supply beat demand in October

   the first surplus since the Iran war began [1]

   52 million

   barrels added to world oil stocks in October

   the first rise since June [2]

   $30

   cost to ship a barrel out of the Gulf, at times

   against about $5 before the war [6]

   $95

   a barrel of Brent crude on Friday

   heading for a second weekly fall of about 2% [5]

   What happened

   • The International Energy Agency said on Friday that the world now pumps more oil than it uses. [1]
   • Supply beat demand by almost 2 million barrels a day in October. [1] It is the first surplus since the Iran war began. [1]
   • Brent crude, the main international oil price, was about $95 a barrel on Friday. [1] It was heading for a second weekly fall, of about 2%. [5]
   • World oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, the IEA said. [2]
   • Supply rose by 3 million barrels a day in September and 2.3 million in October. [3]
   • The IEA called the rise since August "extraordinary": 5.3 million barrels a day. [2]
   • Crude shipped from the Gulf rose to 15 million barrels a day, 82% of its pre-war level. [3]
   • The US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana are set to add 1.6 million barrels a day this year. [2]
   • Oil demand will fall by about 2.7 million barrels a day this year, the IEA expects. [3]
   • High prices, electric cars and better engines are cutting the fuel that vehicles burn. [1]
   • Demand should start growing again around March 2027, the IEA says. [3]
   • Brent was about $72 a barrel in February, before the war. [1] It hit $126 by the end of April. [1]
   • The IEA expects supply to beat demand by 1.7 million barrels a day in the last three months of 2026. [1]
   • It had expected a shortfall for this quarter. [1]

   Who is involved

   The IEA, a Paris-based agency, tracks oil supply and demand for its member countries. [1]

   Opec+, a group of big oil-producing countries, says it pumped 97% of its pre-war crude in October. [1]

   • The Americas pump more oil
   • The Gulf ships out more again
   • Trump says the US needs no deal with Iran
   • The International Energy Agency (IEA) a Paris-based agency that tracks oil for its member countries; it reported the first surplus since the war began
   • Opec+ a group of big oil-producing countries; it says it pumped 97% of its pre-war crude in October
   • Saudi Aramco Saudi Arabia's state oil company; it cut its main crude price for Asia by $2 a barrel
   • Russia a big oil exporter; its crude output rose to 8.73 million barrels a day after a diesel deal with Trump

   How it unfolded

   This week Brent fell to $89.66, its lowest since late August. [1]

   It rose again after Trump said on Thursday that the US did not need a deal with Iran. [20]

   The Strait of Hormuz, which the war blocked, normally carries a fifth of the world's oil and gas. [1]

   Oil stocks held on land are still at their lowest since at least 2016, the IEA says. [3]

   Refilling stocks while meeting demand could take up to two years, Aramco's boss said last month. [6]

   1. This year demand falls
   2. March 2027 growth returns
   3. Now releases speed up
   4. End of February 71 million more barrels out
   5. Feb Brent at about $72 before the war [1]
   6. End April Brent hits $126 [1]
   7. Early Oct North Sea crude peaks at $136 [3]
   8. This week Brent falls to $89.66, its lowest since late August [1]
   9. 13 Nov the IEA reports the first surplus since the war began [1]

   Why it matters

   Diesel is still short: in Europe it costs about $180 a barrel, 77% above pre-war levels. [3]

   Iran's military said 4 tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait on Thursday; Reuters could not verify it. [5]

   Watch whether new attacks cut Gulf exports again: Verisk Maplecroft, a risk firm, expects the threat to last into 2027. [4]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      So is the oil shortage over?

      Not yet: Gulf oil exports in October were still 26% below their pre-war level. [3]

      26%below pre-war: Gulf oil exports in October

   2. 2

      Then how can there be too much oil?

      Gulf exports came back much faster than world demand, the IEA says. [1] The war had pushed demand down. [4]

      War pushes demand down→Gulf exports come back→More oil than buyers
   3. 3

      Who filled the gap while oil was short?

      Stockpiles did: the war forced the world to draw nearly 1 billion barrels, ADNOC's boss says. [6]

      1 billionbarrels drawn from stocks during the war

   4. 4

      So why is fuel still so dear?

      Moving a barrel out of the Gulf now costs up to $30, against about $5 before the war. [6]

      $ to ship a barrel

      Before the war5

      Now, at times30
   5. 5

      Who loses when there is too much oil?

      Gulf sellers: Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state oil firm, cut its main price for Asia by $2 a barrel. [6] It is the steepest discount since May 2020. [6]

      $2a barrel cut from Aramco's main price for Asia

   6. 6

      And who gains?

      Oil buyers like India: cheaper crude has eased inflation fears and lifted Indian share prices. [8]

      Crude gets cheaper→Inflation fears ease→Indian shares rise
   7. 7

      What does Russia get out of it?

      More oil to sell: Russian crude output rose 210,000 barrels a day to 8.73 million after Trump's diesel deal. [2]

   8. 8

      So what is really going on?

      Iran and the Houthis have shown they can choke Gulf oil flows, a Verisk analyst says. [4] So buyers still pay extra for that risk. [4]

   How it works

   Commodity traders call it contango: oil for later costs more than oil now. The gap pays for storing the spare barrels.

   In early November, Dubai oil for later delivery cost more than oil for now, as Gulf flows beat demand. [6]

   Seen it before

   A shop with too many winter coats in summer sells them cheap now, or pays to store them until winter.

   The truth

   • What is really going on The IEA counts more oil being pumped than used, for the first time since the Iran war began. [1]But shipping a barrel out of the Gulf still costs up to $30, against about $5 before the war, so costs for refiners and drivers are not falling yet. [6]
   • Why it works on people The word surplus sounds like the end of a crisis, while the IEA's report also says oil stocks on land are at their lowest since at least 2016. [3]
   • Exports are back near pre-war levels, but many wells are still shut, an HSBC analyst notes. [4]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much oil the world will use this year.

     Both papers quote the IEA's forecast fall of about 2.7 million barrels a day, but The Guardian gives the total as 103.2 million a day and the Economic Times as 102.3 million. [1][3]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Gulf oil keeps flowing.

     Attacks on ships rose last month, and Verisk Maplecroft expects the threat to last into 2027 while the fight over Iran's nuclear programme stays unresolved. [4]

   Good news

   • World oil stocks rose by 52 million barrels in October, the first rise since June. [2]

   What comes next

   IEA members will release 71 million more barrels from emergency stocks by the end of February. [1]

1. 02

   US wholesale prices up 6.5% in a year

   What happened

   • US wholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, the Labor Department said on Friday. [10]
   • Wholesale prices are what producers charge for goods before they reach shops. [9]
   • Economists had expected a 0.4% rise for the month. [10]
   • Over a year, wholesale prices rose 6.5%, up from 6.3% in September. [11]
   • It was the fastest yearly rise since November 2022, when it reached 7.4%. [11]

   Who is involved

   Austan Goolsbee, who heads the Chicago branch of the US central bank, said it "has definitely got work to do". [12]

   Why it matters

   Markets fully expect a US rate rise of at least a quarter point at the 8-9 December meeting. [9]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why does a price shops never see matter?

      Economists use it to estimate the US central bank's favourite inflation gauge, due at the end of November. [10]

      Wholesale prices→Feed the estimate→Central bank's gauge
   2. 2

      What is pushing prices up?

      Goolsbee points to supply shocks, plus AI data centre building that is starting to spread. [12]

      Supply shockswar, tariffs

      ++

      AI buildingmore demand
   3. 3

      So what is really going on?

      Prices have run above the 2% target for almost six years, Goolsbee says. [12] He says the bank must win back trust. [12]

      2%Target

      vsvs

      6.5%Wholesale, a year

   How it works

   Economists call it central bank credibility: when people believe the bank will act, prices settle sooner.

   Goolsbee says inflation is "going the wrong way", so the bank must act to be believed. [12]

   Seen it before

   A teacher who never follows through on a warning soon finds the class stops listening.

2. 03

   AI tops a US central bank risk survey

   What happened

   • The US central bank published its twice-yearly report on dangers to the financial system on Friday. [13]
   • In its survey, 87% of respondents named AI as a big risk, up from 50% in the spring. [13]
   • The next most named danger, a sharp fall in risky assets, got 52%. [13] Higher long-term interest rates got 48%. [13]
   • Respondents feared high share prices, cyberattacks and complicated ways of lending to AI firms. [13]
   • The report also found hedge fund borrowing at its highest since 2013, held by a small group. [13]

   Why it matters

   The survey ended on 28 October, days before the US elections. [13] AI shares have fallen hard since. [14]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why would AI threaten banks and funds?

      If AI firms earn less than hoped, high share prices could fall, the report says. [13]

      Lower AI earnings→Lower share prices→A market fall
   2. 2

      So is the system in trouble now?

      No: the report found the financial system fairly stable otherwise. [13]

   The truth

   • The survey records what market players fear, not the US central bank's own forecast. [13]
3. 04

   Nvidia falls for a sixth week

   What happened

   • Nvidia, which makes the chips AI runs on, fell 13% this week. [14]
   • It has now fallen for 6 weeks in a row, the longest run since 2012. [14]
   • Since early October it has lost about 30% of its value, roughly $1.7 trillion. [14]
   • That pushed it below Apple in stock market value. [14]
   • HSBC, a big bank, cut its advice on the shares to hold on Friday. [15]

   Who is involved

   Finance chief Colette Kress runs Nvidia while the board looks inside and outside for a new boss. [15]

   • Colette Kress interim boss, from finance chief

   Why it matters

   Rising interest rates worried investors, because many of Nvidia's big customers rely on borrowed money. [14]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why did the fall start before Huang left?

      Shares slid about 9% the week before, after Democrats swept the US midterm elections. [14]

      9%fall the week before Huang quit

   2. 2

      Has the bad news been priced in?

      One analyst cut his price target to $200 from $300, but said the market had adjusted. [14]

      $300Old target

      ↓→

      $200New target
   3. 3

      Who decides what happens next?

      The board, and one fund manager expects the search to "take a lot of time". [15]

   How it works

   Economists call it vendor financing: a seller helps pay for its own buyers' purchases.

   Nvidia helps finance the data centre firms that depend on its chips, an analyst at Trade Nation notes. [11]

   Seen it before

   A shop that lends customers money to buy its own goods sells more, until the loans look shaky.

   What comes next

   Nvidia reports its quarterly results on Tuesday, Kress's first big test. [14]

4. 05

   Chip makers fall with Nvidia

   What happened

   • Chip shares fell about 4.5% on Friday, as Nvidia's slide spread through the industry. [17]
   • AMD, a rival chip maker, fell nearly 9%. [16]
   • By London's close, chip makers Broadcom were down 6.1%, Intel 5% and Micron 4.6%. [11]

   Who is involved

   AMD's boss Lisa Su is among those linked to the top job at Nvidia. [11]

   • Lisa Su AMD's boss, linked to Nvidia's top job

   How it unfolded

   AMD's shares had risen the day before, during Nvidia's slide. [16]

   Why it matters

   Funds holding tech shares fell too: in London, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust lost 1.6%. [11]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why would rivals fall when Nvidia stumbles?

      Huang was the "glue guy" holding the AI story together, a Mizuho strategist wrote. [18]

   2. 2

      Is this about Nvidia or about AI?

      Nvidia lost over a fifth of its value in 4 weeks before the scandal, an analyst noted. [11] He reads that as doubt about AI's returns. [11]

      Shares slide for weeks→Then the scandal→Doubt about AI's returns
5. 06

   Wall Street ends a winning week

   What happened

   • The S&P 500, an index of 500 big US firms, fell 0.4% on Friday to 7,561.67. [15]
   • It still had its best week since 7 August, Barron's reports. [18]
   • The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.91%, while the Dow Jones index rose 0.1%. [15]
   • The yield on two-year US government bonds rose for a 5th day, its biggest weekly rise since October 2024. [18]
   • Short-term yields, the interest on short loans to the US government, move most when rate bets change. [20]
   • The 10-year US yield was 5.13% late on Friday. [11]

   Why it matters

   Yields rose because this week's inflation figures raised the odds of several US rate rises. [18]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Is the week's gain solid?

      Part of it may reflect the sharp swings of the week before, Barron's says. [18]

   2. 2

      What tests the market next?

      Nvidia's results on Tuesday, and results from big shops Walmart and Target. [18]

   How it works

   Investors call it rotation: money moves from one kind of share to another, instead of leaving the market.

   Baird's Ross Mayfield told CNBC he expects investors to keep moving into shares outside AI. [15]

   Seen it before

   When one team in a league loses fans, many go to watch another team instead of quitting football.

6. 07

   The dollar has one of its best weeks

   What happened

   • The US dollar had one of its best weeks of 2026, said Matthew Ryan of Ebury, a currency firm. [11]
   • The dollar index, which tracks it against other main currencies, rose about 0.9% this week. [20]
   • One dollar bought about 159.90 Japanese yen late on Friday. [11]

   Who is involved

   • Japan wants a stronger yen
   • The US bought yen with it

   How it unfolded

   New figures show the US Treasury bought 79.4 billion yen, about $497 million, on 31 July. [23]

   It was a joint move with Japan to stop the yen falling. [23]

   Why it matters

   Other currencies weakened too: the Australian dollar traded at its lowest since January. [21]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why is the dollar rising?

      Traders expect more US rate rises, and Ryan sees a December rise as "all but certain". [11]

   2. 2

      What would stop it?

      Ryan says the dollar's easy path stays up while the US central bank stays tough and the war drags on. [11]

      Rates stay high→War drags on→Dollar keeps rising

   How it works

   Economists call it the interest rate pull: money flows to the currency where interest rates are rising.

   As bets on US rate rises grew this week, the dollar climbed against a basket of currencies. [20]

   Seen it before

   Savers move their money to the bank paying the highest rate, so that bank's queue grows.

1. 08

   Gold and bitcoin fall as rate bets rise

   What happened

   • Gold was heading for its worst week since early June, down about 4.5%. [19]
   • It fell 3% on Thursday, to its lowest in more than a year, as oil rose and stoked inflation fears. [19]
   • Silver fell 1.9% to $49.05 an ounce, and platinum 1.9% to $1,490.06. [19]
   • Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time since August. [22]
   • Bitcoin, a digital currency that also pays no interest, dropped almost 7% in two days, to $68,572. [21]

   Why it matters

   Gold pays no interest, so it loses appeal when interest rates rise. [19]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why fall when inflation is high?

      Because traders now bet on rate rises: they put a 91.4% chance on one in December. [19]

      91.4%chance of a US rate rise in December

   2. 2

      Does the dollar play a part?

      Yes: a firmer dollar makes gold less attractive to buyers abroad, Investing.com reports. [20]

      Dollar rises→Gold dearer abroad→Fewer buyers

   How it works

   Traders call the extra price for later delivery the cost of carry: what holding the metal until then costs.

   On Friday gold for December delivery cost $3,886.30, against $3,879.71 for gold now. [19]

   Seen it before

   A shop charges a little more to keep a dress for you until next month than to sell it today.

   Why a barrel for next month can cost more than one today

   Commodity traders call it contango: when there is more oil than buyers need now, oil for a later month costs more, and that gap pays someone to store it.

   The twist

   A higher price for oil next month is not a forecast that oil will rise. It is the rent for keeping today's spare barrels until a buyer needs them.

   The picture

   $3,879.71Gold now

   vsvs

   $3,886.30Gold for December

   Step by step

   1. 1 More oil arrives than buyers need now
   2. 2 Sellers cut today's price to clear it
   3. 3 Oil for delivery next month stays dearer
   4. 4 The gap pays for tanks, insurance and interest
   5. 5 Traders buy now, store it, and sell for later

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Gold and bitcoin fall as rate bets rise

     Gold for December delivery cost more than gold for now, because whoever holds it until December pays to keep it and gives up interest meanwhile.

   Where you've seen this

   Wheat after a big harvest

   grain for spring costs more than grain at harvest, because someone must keep it dry in a silo until then

   Gas before winter

   summer gas is cheaper than winter gas, so suppliers buy in summer and fill their stores

   A shop's winter stock

   unsold coats either go on sale now or sit in a storeroom that costs rent until the cold comes

   The catch

   It flips when oil runs short. Then buyers pay extra to get oil now, later oil is cheaper, and traders call that backwardation.

   And the whole of it

   A trader pays for a tank, a refinery chooses which month to buy, and a driver pays a pump price set by both. Each of them sees one month of the curve, and the price each pays depends on months the others choose.

   The truth

   • Nobody knows yet

     How big December's US rate rise will be.

     After Friday's figures, futures gave a 91.4% chance to a quarter-point rise, and 8.6% to a rise twice that size, down from 13.8%. [19]

1. 09

   Germany's shares hit a record on cheaper oil

   What happened

   • Germany's main share index, the DAX, has risen 6% this quarter to a record high. [7]
   • Falling oil prices did most of the work, Bloomberg reports. [7]
   • About 80% of DAX firms now trade above their average price over the last 200 days. [7]
   • Software firms in the index also gained during the AI scare. [7]
   • On Friday the DAX itself slipped 0.1%. [11]

   Why it matters

   Lower oil prices benefit Germany's energy-intensive firms, Bloomberg reports. [7]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Who is betting on German shares?

      In a Bank of America survey, a net 16% of fund managers planned to buy more of them. [7]

      16%net share of fund managers planning to buy more

   2. 2

      Is it only oil?

      No: UBS expects Germany's spending plan to add about 0.6 percentage points to growth in 2026 and 2027. [7]

      0.6percentage points added to German growth, UBS says

   How it works

   Economists call these energy-intensive industries: ones whose biggest cost is power and fuel.

   Firms like these make up about a third of the DAX, so cheaper oil lifts the whole index. [7]

   Seen it before

   A delivery driver keeps more of each day's pay when petrol gets cheaper, for the same work.

2. 10

   Microsoft outage slows trading desks

   What happened

   • A global Microsoft outage hit Outlook, Teams and Copilot for more than 12 hours from Thursday. [33]
   • Traders in Sydney and Singapore went back to phones and chat apps. [32]
   • In Singapore, some banks could not complete financing deals. [32]
   • Japan's finance ministry said it could not receive emails. [32]
   • Microsoft shares fell about 2.8% before the US market opened. [33] By the London close they were 0.1% higher. [11]
   • Microsoft said it saw no sign of a cyberattack. [33]

   Who is involved

   • Some Singapore banks could not finish financing deals

   Why it matters

   Small firms with no backup systems pay most, an Australian risk adviser says. [34]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      What does a day without email cost a firm?

      Hundreds of thousands of dollars an hour for firms like lawyers and accountants, says RSM's Ashwin Pal. [34]

   2. 2

      Why does the cost keep growing?

      When systems return, firms must pay to clear the backlog, Pal says. [34]

      Systems down→Work piles up→Paying to catch up
   3. 3

      So what is really going on?

      About 3.9 million businesses use the Microsoft suite, and many have no backup. [34]

      3.9 millionbusinesses using the Microsoft suite

   The truth

   • Microsoft blamed heavy load on its servers, and said its first fixes did not work as expected. [33]
3. 11

   Richemont falls despite a 39% profit rise

   What happened

   • Richemont, the Swiss owner of Cartier, said its half-year profit rose 39% to 2.53 billion euros. [28]
   • Its sales rose 16% to 12.28 billion euros in the six months to September. [28]
   • Yet its shares fell as much as 9%, the biggest drop since April 2025. [30]
   • Jewellery sales grew 14% in the quarter, below the 16% analysts expected. [28]
   • Jewellery growth slowed from 24% the quarter before. [29]
   • Richemont ended September with 7.73 billion euros of net cash. [28]

   Why it matters

   Demand in mainland China is still soft. [28]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why did shares fall on a bigger profit?

      Analysts worry that jewellery growth is slowing back to normal, Citi wrote. [29]

      Strong past growth→Growth slows→Shares fall
   2. 2

      What could the cash be for?

      Chairman Johann Rupert has been linked to talks about De Beers, the diamond firm. [28] No offer has been announced. [28]

   The truth

   • Reports differ by the hour: as much as 9% early, 5% at midday, nearly 4% at the close. [16,29,30]
4. 12

   Jaguar Land Rover loses 451 million pounds

   What happened

   • Jaguar Land Rover, Britain's largest car industry employer, lost 451 million pounds in July to September. [26]
   • It booked 530 million pounds of one-off costs as it cut about 4,000 jobs. [46]
   • About 3,000 staff have signed up to leave, most at the end of November. [26]
   • Revenue rose to 5.9 billion pounds, but sales fell in China and the Middle East. [26]
   • JLR cut its yearly profit margin forecast to 2-3%, from 4% in June. [46]

   Who is involved

   Its Indian owner, Tata Motors, saw its car arm post its steepest loss in 22 quarters. [27]

   • Tata Motors Indian owner of JLR

   Why it matters

   JLR's boss wants Britain and the EU to drop new trade barriers on electric cars due on 1 January. [26]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Is the loss a one-off?

      Not only: JLR expects to spend about 1.25 billion pounds more cash than it brings in this year. [46]

      1.25 billion poundsmore cash out than in this year

   2. 2

      What is the trade fight about?

      From 1 January, UK and EU electric cars with Asian batteries could face 10% tariffs. [26]

      10%possible tariff on cars with Asian batteries

   3. 3

      Who is pressing JLR hardest?

      Chinese carmakers: its boss PB Balaji spoke of an "onslaught of competition". [26]

   How it works

   Accountants call these exceptional items: one-off costs that a company reports separately.

   Without the restructuring costs, JLR says it made a small operating profit. [26]

   Seen it before

   A family that pays for a house move has a bad month, even if their pay went up.

   The truth

   • JLR's finance chief said 295 million pounds of the 530 million was for job cuts. [46] The rest included asset write-downs he would not name. [46]
5. 13

   London shares end the week 2.2% up

   What happened

   • London's FTSE 100 index of big firms rose 0.4% on Friday to 10,902.56. [11]
   • It gained 2.2% over the week. [11]
   • Wise, a UK firm for sending money abroad, jumped 7.8% on higher half-year profit. [11]
   • It also reached an agreement with Belgian prosecutors over alleged money laundering, without admitting wrongdoing. [30]
   • Insurer Aviva rose 3.4% after saying it is on track for its three-year targets. [11]

   Who is involved

   • Wise admits no wrongdoing
   • Belgian prosecutors reached an agreement

   Why it matters

   London's biggest firms held firm even as US tech shares fell again. [11]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why did London hold up?

      Its biggest risers included Centrica, an energy supplier, and the insurer Aviva. [11]

   2. 2

      Who lost?

      Polar Capital Technology Trust, which invests in tech shares, fell 3.4%. [11]

      3.4%fall in Polar Capital Technology Trust

6. 14

   UK insurers face record subsidence claims

   What happened

   • Aviva, the UK's biggest insurer, said subsidence claims jumped after a very hot summer. [31]
   • Subsidence is when the ground under a house shrinks, cracking walls and tilting floors. [31]
   • Hastings Direct, another insurer, said its subsidence claims in August were up 140% on a year before. [31]
   • The average UK subsidence claim hit a record 20,000 pounds in April to June. [31]
   • Insurers paid 72 million pounds for home subsidence claims then, against 60 million a year before. [31]
   • Aviva's general insurance premiums still rose 19% to 11.8 billion pounds. [31]

   Why it matters

   Up to 4.2 million UK homes could be at risk by 2070, the British Geological Survey says. [31]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why do hot summers crack houses?

      Dry ground shrinks under foundations, then swells again in wet winters. [31]

      Hot, dry summer→Clay shrinks→Wet winter swells it
   2. 2

      Who is most at risk?

      Older homes with shallow foundations on clay, in places like London, Essex and Kent. [31]

   The truth

   • Aviva would not say how big its rise in claims was. [31]
7. 15

   Robinhood takes its case to the US Supreme Court

   What happened

   • The US Supreme Court agreed on Friday to hear Robinhood's appeal over its 2021 share sale. [24]
   • Investors sued, saying its listing papers left out information the law required. [24]
   • The Trump administration and the SEC, the US markets regulator, urged the US Supreme Court to take it. [24]

   Who is involved

   Robinhood is an online broker, a firm people use to trade shares. [24]

   • Robinhood an online broker
   • Trump administration backs Robinhood's appeal
   • The SEC markets regulator

   How it unfolded

   A lower court threw out the case, but an appeals court revived it. [24]

   1. First case thrown out
   2. Then appeals court revives it

   Why it matters

   If Robinhood wins, the lawsuit against it and its banks, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, is blocked. [24]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      What was left out?

      Fuller figures for April to June 2021; Robinhood listed in July 2021. [24] When those results came out, its shares fell. [24]

   2. 2

      What did each side say?

      Robinhood said it looks forward to arguing its case. [24] CNBC asked the investors' lawyers for comment. [24]

   How it works

   Lawyers call it a material omission: leaving out a fact that would change an investor's mind.

   The investors say the missing figures were "material information" the law required. [24]

   Seen it before

   Selling a used car without saying the brakes are worn lets the buyer ask for money back.

8. 16

   US regulator moves to block a vet supplies deal

   What happened

   • The FTC, the US competition regulator, planned to sue Friday to block a $3.5 billion vet deal, Semafor reported. [25]
   • Both supply medicines and products to vet clinics across the US. [25]
   • The FTC is also planning to block a $5 billion deal between two uniform suppliers. [25]
   • Neither company replied to Semafor's request for comment. [25]

   Who is involved

   Covetrus, owned by investment firms CD&R and TPG, wants to buy its rival MWI Veterinary Supply. [25]

   • Covetrus the buyer
   • MWI Veterinary Supply the rival

   Why it matters

   The FTC plans to argue the deal would raise costs for pet owners and vet clinics. [25]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why act now?

      The regulator has focused on affordability, a theme of President Trump's, Semafor's editor says. [25]

   2. 2

      Is this a common step?

      No: merger investigations neared a record low in 2025, law firm Dechert's data show. [25]

   How it works

   Economists call it market concentration: when a few firms hold most of a market, they can charge more.

   The FTC believes joining Covetrus and MWI would create a "highly concentrated market". [25]

   Seen it before

   If a town's two bakeries merge, the one bakery left can raise the price of bread.

9. 17

   Eurozone growth slows to 0.4%

   What happened

   • Eurostat, the EU's statistics body, confirmed the eurozone grew 0.4% in July to September. [11]
   • That was slower than the 0.6% of April to June. [11]
   • The eurozone's trade deficit in goods widened in September. [45]
   • A trade deficit means it bought more goods from the rest of the world than it sold. [45]

   Why it matters

   Households and businesses had to pay more for imported fossil fuels. [45]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Did cheaper oil help yet?

      Not in September: North Sea crude only began falling from its $136 peak in early October. [3]

      $136North Sea crude's peak, early October

   2. 2

      Why does the oil price matter so much here?

      The eurozone buys its fossil fuels abroad, so dearer energy widens its trade gap. [45]

      Energy dearer→Import bill grows→Trade gap widens
10. 18

    Ghana plans $10 billion to make more at home

    What happened

    • Ghana plans to invest $10 billion over four years to make more at home, its budget says. [35]
    • Ghana is Africa's largest gold producer. [35]
    • It wants to end exports of unprocessed minerals by 2030. [35]
    • The budget sets aside $2.6 billion next year for farming, energy and factories. [35]

    Who is involved

    Its finance minister told lawmakers "too little value" is added inside the country. [35]

    How it unfolded

    Ghana finished an IMF rescue programme this year, after a debt crisis. [35]

    1. Now raw minerals shipped out
    2. 2030 export ban planned

    Why it matters

    It aims to turn its recovery into jobs and higher incomes. [35]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why sell minerals raw at all?

       Because much of the skilled work tied to them now happens abroad, Ghana's finance ministry says. [35]

       Raw mineralsleave Ghana

       ↓→

       Skilled workabroad
    2. 2

       Can Ghana afford it?

       It plans to repay about $3 billion of debt ahead of schedule, and targets 8% growth by 2030. [35]

       8%growth Ghana targets by 2030

    How it works

    Development economists call it moving up the value chain: processing raw goods at home before selling them.

    Ghana wants to process its own minerals by 2030, so more of the value stays inside the country. [35]

    Seen it before

    Selling apples earns less than selling the apple pies made from them.

    Good news

    • Ghana finished its IMF rescue programme this year and now plans to repay about $3 billion of debt ahead of schedule.
11. 19

    Dangote raises his African plans to $70 billion

    What happened

    • Aliko Dangote, Africa's richest man, raised his planned African investment from $50 billion to about $70 billion. [36]
    • His group is also weighing a 10,000-megawatt power programme across Africa. [36]
    • It already makes almost 1,500 megawatts of power for its own plants. [36]

    How it unfolded

    In September it broke ground on a $16 billion refinery in Lamu, Kenya. [36]

    This month it launched a $2.5 billion fuel storage and pipeline project in Namibia. [36]

    Why it matters

    The power plan could sell electricity beyond its own factories, possibly in Nigeria. [36]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Is the $70 billion a firm plan?

       No: the group has given no project list, funding plan or timetable. [36]

    2. 2

       Who would build the power plants?

       It is not yet known whether governments or private partners would join, the report says. [36]

    The truth

    • The plan comes from a group statement, which names no places or costs for the power programme. [36]
12. 20

    India's state banks have their best week in months

    What happened

    • India's index of state-owned banks rose 8% this week, its biggest weekly gain in seven months. [37]
    • It has gained 15% over three weeks, to its highest since March. [37]
    • Punjab National Bank led, up 13.3% to 143 rupees. [37]
    • Better results, rising loan demand and a brighter market mood drove the rally. [37]

    How it unfolded

    Banks raised about $133 billion from Indians abroad through a special central bank scheme. [37]

    Why it matters

    Festive spending is lifting consumer borrowing, and companies borrow more from banks too. [37]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Is the rally built on real profits?

       Partly: fewer new bad loans were added in the quarter, Mint reports. [37]

    2. 2

       How fast could lending grow?

       Motilal Oswal, a broker, expects lending to grow 16.5% in the year to March 2027. [37]

       16.5%expected loan growth to March 2027

    How it works

    Bankers call it the net interest margin: what a bank earns on loans minus what it pays on deposits.

    The deposits from Indians abroad cost more, which squeezes that margin even as lending grows. [37]

    Seen it before

    A shop that pays more for its stock earns less on each sale, even if it sells more.

13. 21

    Indian shares rise for a third week

    What happened

    • India's Nifty 50 index fell 0.6% on Friday but rose for a third week in a row. [38]
    • It gained 0.45% this week, after a nearly 9% jump the week before. [38]
    • Revenue at 2,892 listed Indian companies grew 21.9% in July to September, a Mint analysis found. [38]
    • Their profit rose 26.2%, up from 9% in April to June. [38]

    Why it matters

    Rising inflation and selling by Indian funds raise doubts about how long the rally lasts. [38]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Who is buying, and who is selling?

       Foreign funds bought 21,653 crore rupees of shares this week, and Indian funds sold 21,938 crore. [38]

       21,653 croreForeign funds bought

       vsvs

       21,938 croreIndian funds sold
    2. 2

       Does the selling mean Indian funds have lost faith?

       Not necessarily: they may be taking profits, Choice Wealth's Nikunj Saraf said. [38]

    The truth

    • The 26.2% profit figure is Mint's own count of company results, not an official total. [38]

    Good news

    • Revenue at 2,892 listed Indian companies grew 21.9% in July to September, and their profit grew 26.2%.
14. 22

    Razorpay cleared to list in India

    What happened

    • India's markets regulator, SEBI, approved Razorpay's plan to sell shares to the public. [8]
    • Razorpay lets businesses take online payments by card, bank or UPI, India's instant payment system. [8]
    • It earns a fee on each transaction. [8]
    • It hopes to raise $600 million, Reuters reported. [8]

    Who is involved

    It competes with Paytm, PhonePe and Cashfree. [8]

    • Paytm rival
    • PhonePe rival
    • Cashfree rival

    Why it matters

    It is one of many Indian firms queuing to list, with Zepto, PhonePe and Flipkart also planning. [41]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why list now?

       Overseas money is coming back to Indian shares after nearly two years away, Mint reports. [8]

       Two years away→AI sell-off abroad→Money returns to India
    2. 2

       Why file in secret first?

       A confidential filing lets a company show the regulator its draft papers without making them public. [8]

15. 23

    Paytm wins early approval to restart its wallet

    What happened

    • Paytm's payments unit won early approval from India's central bank to issue digital wallets. [39]
    • Its shares rose nearly 2% to 1,960 rupees on Friday. [39]
    • That passed their first-day high of 1,955 rupees from November 2021, for the first time. [39]

    How it unfolded

    In April 2026 India's central bank cancelled the licence of Paytm Payments Bank. [39]

    Why it matters

    The approval gives Paytm a new route to restart its wallet, without its old bank. [39]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why did it lose the wallet?

       Its wallet was tied to Paytm Payments Bank, which regulators shut. [39]

    2. 2

       Is the wallet back for good?

       Not yet: only the final licence lets it offer wallets to customers. [39]

    Good news

    • Paytm won early approval from India's central bank to restart its digital wallet, after its payments bank lost its licence in April.

    What comes next

    The unit must pass a full systems and cyber security audit within six months for final approval. [39]

16. 24

    Coal India sets dates for a unit's listing

    What happened

    • Coal India filed the final papers to list Mahanadi Coalfields, one of India's largest coal producers. [40]
    • The share sale opens on 19 November and closes on 23 November. [40]
    • Coal India will sell up to 10% of its stake. [40]
    • The sale could raise about $1 billion. [40]
    • All the money goes to Coal India, because no new shares are created. [40]

    How it unfolded

    1. 19 Nov sale opens
    2. 23 Nov sale closes

    Why it matters

    Coal India is listing its units one by one to raise money from them. [40]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why sell a slice of a coal unit?

       It lets Coal India raise money from the unit while selling only part of it, Mint says. [40]

       Soldup to 10%

       vsvs

       Keptthe rest
    2. 2

       Is it the first?

       No: Bharat Coking Coal listed in January and another unit in March. [40]

    The truth

    • The $1 billion size and the value of up to $10 billion are estimates from market reports, not company figures. [40]

    What comes next

    Listing is expected on 27 November. [40]

17. 25

    YES Bank asks India's top court to think again

    What happened

    • YES Bank asked India's Supreme Court to review its 15 October ruling on the bank's AT-1 bonds. [42]
    • AT-1 bonds are risky bank bonds that can be written off if the bank gets into trouble. [42]
    • Bondholders say the bank has shown no "concrete roadmap" to restore the bonds, as India's top court ordered. [42]
    • The bank also refused to pay interest due this year on the bonds, Reuters reported. [42]

    How it unfolded

    YES Bank's administrator wrote the bonds off in March 2020, when a group of lenders rescued it. [42]

    1. March 2020 bonds written off
    2. 15 Oct court rules on them

    Why it matters

    Bondholders who lost their money in 2020 are still waiting for the bonds to be restored. [42]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       What did the bondholders do?

       Their trustee, Axis Trustee Services, filed a contempt case against the bank. [42]

    2. 2

       How have the shares taken it?

       They have rebounded 15% and should stay in focus on Monday, Mint says. [42]

       15%rebound in YES Bank's shares

    The truth

    • Reuters first reported the review plan from unnamed sources, and the bank's own filing has now confirmed it. [42]
18. 26

    Saudi Arabia cancels a big desalination contract

    What happened

    • Saudi Arabia's water authority cancelled a desalination contract worth about $272 million with India's VA Tech Wabag. [43]
    • The plant at Yanbu would have turned 300 million litres of seawater a day into fresh water. [43]
    • The authority told bidders it cancelled the tender for its own internal reasons. [43]
    • Wabag shares closed 2% lower on Friday, before the news came out on Saturday. [43]

    How it unfolded

    Wabag won the award in July 2025 and signed the contract. [43]

    Why it matters

    The loss lands on Wabag's order book and its owners, including investor Rekha Jhunjhunwala with 8%. [43]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why would Saudi Arabia cancel?

       It gave only "internal reasons attributable to the customer". [43]

    2. 2

       Has this happened before?

       Yes: the same authority cancelled a similar plant in December 2024. [43]

    The truth

    • The authority gave no detail, and Wabag says it is asking for clarity. [43]
19. 27

    Australian shares rise for a third week

    What happened

    • Australia's ASX 200 index fell 0.71% on Friday to 9,082.2. [21]
    • It still rose 0.7% for the week, its third weekly gain in a row. [21]
    • Miners fell 1.6% as copper dropped to near its lowest since July. [21]
    • National Australia Bank shares have fallen over 6% since its weak yearly results. [21]

    Why it matters

    Volatile AI shares, dearer oil and a tough economy at home limited the week's gains. [21]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why are miners falling?

       Copper fell on AI worries, tariff doubts and a stronger dollar, ANZ analysts wrote. [21]

       AI worries→Stronger dollar→Copper falls
    2. 2

       What comes next?

       Australian job figures come out next week. [21]

    How it works

    Investors call it dilution: new shares mean each old share owns a smaller slice.

    Paladin Energy, a uranium miner, sold 525 million Australian dollars of new shares, and its shares fell 17%. [21]

    Seen it before

    Cutting a pizza into more slices for new guests leaves each slice smaller.

20. 28

    US shoppers trade down to cheaper shops

    What happened

    • US shoppers are switching to cheaper shops as prices stay high, a Bank of America Institute report found. [44]
    • Its measure shows the most trading down since 2021. [44]
    • Trading down is most common in clothes and eating out. [44]
    • Travel spending is rising, but mostly because fares are higher. [44]
    • In a University of Michigan survey, 57% said high prices had hurt their living standards, up from 46% in February. [44]

    Why it matters

    "Adapting is not the same thing as escaping it," said Taylor Bowley, a Bank of America economist. [44]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Who is trading down most?

       Millennials, the report found. [44]

    2. 2

       What pushed prices up?

       Petrol has surged since the Iran war began, and mortgage rates have risen this year. [44]

       Iran war→Dearer petrol→Tighter budgets

    How it works

    Economists call it trading down: buying a cheaper version of the same thing when money is tight.

    Spending on clothes and restaurants moved to value shops, while dearer flights still got bought. [44]

    Seen it before

    Swapping branded cereal for the shop's own brand when money runs low.

21. 29

    France and Germany near a deal on the ECB's next boss

    What happened

    • France and Germany are near a deal making Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Cos the next ECB president, El Pais reported. [47]
    • Euronews reports the two candidates are de Cos and Klaas Knot, a former Dutch central bank chief. [47]
    • The deal could give Germany the ECB's chief economist job and France the seat of Isabel Schnabel, Handelsblatt reported. [47]

    Who is involved

    The ECB is the eurozone's central bank, and Christine Lagarde now runs it. [47]

    • Pablo Hernandez de Cos the favourite, from Spain
    • Klaas Knot the rival, from the Netherlands

    How it unfolded

    De Cos once ran Spain's central bank and now runs the BIS, the "central bank of central banks". [47]

    1. 18 Nov nominations due
    2. 26 Nov EU leaders consult

    Why it matters

    France favours de Cos, whose milder line on rates suits a country under budget strain, El Pais reported. [47]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why are so many seats up at once?

       Schnabel leaves on 3 January for the IMF, so 3 of the 6 board members go within five months. [47]

       3 of 6

       board members due to leave

    2. 2

       Who does Germany want?

       Markus Brunnermeier, a Princeton University economist, as chief economist, Handelsblatt reported. [47]

    How it works

    Political scientists call it package bargaining: several posts are traded together so each side gets something.

    Governments are negotiating the ECB posts as a package, Euronews reports. [47]

    Seen it before

    Two flatmates split the chores as a set: one cooks, the other washes up, so both agree.

    What comes next

    Nominations for those two posts are due by 18 November, and leaders aim to consult on 26 November. [47]

22. 30

    US regulator proposes showing less about bosses' pay

    What happened

    • The SEC, the US markets regulator, proposed on Friday to change how companies report their bosses' pay. [48]
    • Pay would be shown for fewer people, likely only the chief executive and the finance chief. [48]
    • The bar for reporting perks would rise from $10,000 to $150,000. [48]
    • Perks like club memberships may no longer be reported, and firms get more say over what counts as a perk. [48]
    • Pay tables would focus on salary, bonus and share awards. [48]

    Who is involved

    • Chief executive pay still shown
    • Finance chief pay still shown

    Why it matters

    Shareholders could see less about perks such as security, parking and some private jet use. [48]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Why change the rules?

       The SEC's chairman says they should serve "the reasonable investor", not one investor's special tastes. [48]

    2. 2

       Could the new numbers mislead too?

       Old tables could overstate pay, and new ones may understate it if shares keep rising, The Hollywood Reporter notes. [48]

       Old tablesmay overstate

       vsvs

       New tablesmay understate

    The truth

    • It is only a proposal: nothing changes unless the SEC adopts the rule. [48]
23. 31

    Germany plans its second-biggest borrowing since the war

    What happened

    • Germany's parliament budget committee finished the 2027 spending plan after a session of more than 15 hours. [49]
    • The plan borrows just over 210 billion euros, about $233 billion. [49]
    • It expects a little under 400 billion euros in taxes. [49]
    • Counting special funds for infrastructure and the army, new debt pays for about a third of all spending. [49]

    How it unfolded

    Only 2021, at the height of the Covid pandemic, saw more new debt: 215.4 billion euros. [49]

    Why it matters

    The Greens attacked Chancellor Merz for dropping a promised cut to electricity taxes from the budget. [49]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       Who objects to the borrowing?

       The opposition AfD says it would borrow just 63 billion euros and still cut taxes. [49]

       63 billion eurosthe AfD says it would borrow

    2. 2

       Is the plan final?

       Nearly: members already see room for changes, but the plan can take effect, DW reports. [49]

    The truth

    • The AfD's lower figure rests on deep cuts to climate spending and payments to the EU, DW reports. [49]
24. 32

    Three central banks test settling currency trades at once

    What happened

    • The central banks of Britain, Singapore and Thailand published the results of a joint trial on 13 November. [50]
    • They tested settling foreign currency trades across their different payment systems at the same moment. [50]
    • The trial linked older payment systems with newer ones built on shared digital ledgers. [50]

    Who is involved

    Partior, the project's delivery partner, built and tested the prototype. [50]

    • Bank of England Britain
    • Monetary Authority of Singapore Singapore
    • Bank of Thailand Thailand

    How it unfolded

    1. Now trial results out
    2. 2028 live service planned

    Why it matters

    Banks could use their cash more efficiently by netting payments against each other, the trial showed. [50]

    Think it through

    1. 1

       What risk does it cut?

       MAS's Kenneth Gay says it cuts settlement risk: one side paying while the other may not. [50]

       One side paysdone

       vsvs

       Other sidefails
    2. 2

       When was it started?

       The project was announced in November 2025, the release says. [50]

    How it works

    Payment experts call it payment versus payment: each currency moves only if the other one does.

    In the trial, a "synchronisation" service moved central bank money in both currencies together. [50]

    Seen it before

    Swapping trading cards hand to hand at the same moment means nobody has to hand theirs over first.

    What comes next

    The Bank of England plans to launch a live service in 2028. [50]