Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill says UK interest rates will probably rise in December and again in 2027

The stories

10 on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill says UK interest rates will probably rise in December and again in 2027

   4%

   the Bank of England's rate after this month's rise

   its first rise since August 2023 [2]

   5%

   where the Bank expects UK inflation to peak next year

   more than twice its 2% target [2]

   2.3 million

   UK homeowners who must take a new mortgage deal next year

   higher rates would raise what they pay [1]

   17 December

   the Bank's next interest rate decision

   analysts call a rise there almost inevitable [1]

   What happened

   • Huw Pill, the Bank of England's chief economist, says UK interest rates will probably rise again in December. [1]
   • He also expects more rises in 2027, he told the Financial Times on Saturday. [2]
   • The Bank raised its rate from 3.75% to 4% this month, its first rise since August 2023. [2]
   • A rise from 4% to 4.25% would make new mortgage deals and business loans dearer. [5]
   • The Bank expects inflation to reach about 5% next year, more than twice its 2% target. [2]
   • Prices in Britain are rising 3.5% a year now, pushed up by the cost of fuel. [6]
   • Oil has traded above $100 a barrel in recent weeks. [6] Before the US and Israel went to war with Iran in February, it was about $70. [6]
   • Pill expects workers to ask for big pay rises to keep up, which would keep inflation high for longer. [1]
   • "I worry about the inflationary impact being magnified by second-round effects," Pill said. [1]
   • Pill also said the Bank should have acted sooner: "In my view, we waited too long." [1]
   • Because the Bank waited, he said, its "ability to be modest" has shrunk. [2] Small steps may no longer be enough. [3]
   • Megan Greene, who also votes on UK rates, said on Saturday the Bank should act now rather than wait. [4]
   • Facing so much doubt, she said, a rate-setter should ask: "how can I screw this up the least?" [4]
   • Her answer is that raising too much and cutting later is less risky than waiting too long. [4]
   • UK inflation has been above the 2% target for most of the last 5.5 years, she noted. [4]
   • Traders now bet on rises worth about 0.9 percentage points by the end of 2027. [2] That would take the rate close to 5%. [2]
   • Pill called those bets "not outrageous". [2]
   • Pill and other rate-setters think a stronger economy has given workers the power to push up pay. [1]
   • Many worry more rises will hurt factories and builders. [1] Building work has shrunk for much of this year. [1]

   Who is involved

   • Huw Pill the Bank of England's chief economist; expects rises in December and in 2027
   • Megan Greene a member of the Bank's rate-setting committee; wants it to act now
   • Factories would pay more to borrow
   • Builders work shrank this year
   • NIESR a UK economic research group; says the Bank's last rise was too timid

   How it unfolded

   1. December a rise likely
   2. 2027 more rises expected
   3. Aug 2023 the Bank's last rate rise before this one [2]
   4. Feb 2026 the US and Israel go to war with Iran, and oil jumps [6]
   5. Nov 2026 the Bank raises its rate from 3.75% to 4% [1]
   6. Sat 14 Nov Pill and Greene both argue for more rises [2][4]
   7. 17 Dec the next rate decision [5]

   Why it matters

   A rise would reach households on new mortgage deals and firms taking out business loans. [5]

   New UK figures this week will test the bets on more rises. [10] The Bank's rate-setters next decide on 17 December. [5]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Is the economy strong enough to take another rise?

      Britain's economy grew 0.7% in the three months to September, its fastest in 2.5 years. [7]

      0.7%UK growth, July to September

   2. 2

      Then where does the squeeze come from?

      But household energy bills are set to rise by about 25% in January, ING, a bank, says. [8]

      0.7%Economic growth

      vsvs

      about 25% upEnergy bills in January
   3. 3

      Who pays first if rates go up?

      About 2.3 million UK homeowners must take a new mortgage deal next year. [1] Higher rates would raise what they pay. [1]

      2.3 millionUK homeowners who must refinance next year

   4. 4

      Why not wait to see if pay really jumps?

      The Bank has not yet seen pay rises or firms passing on costs, Pill says. [1] He says that does not mean they are not coming. [1]

      No sign of it yet→The Bank expects it anyway→Rates go up
   5. 5

      And if the Bank waits and is wrong?

      NIESR, a UK research group, says the longer the Bank waits, the more it will eventually need to do. [6]

      The Bank waits→Inflation settles in→Bigger rises needed later
   6. 6

      How far apart are the numbers?

      Prices are rising 3.5% a year against a 2% target. [6] The Bank's rate is 4%, and inflation could reach 5%. [2]

      The target2%

      Inflation now3.5%

      Bank rate4%

      Inflation forecast5%
   7. 7

      Is Britain the only one raising?

      US central bank officials have talked of more rises too. [9] Their own forecast sees US inflation back at 2% only in 2029. [9]

   8. 8

      So what is really going on?

      Most 2027 pay deals are agreed early next year, with inflation above 4%, NIESR says. [6] Greene wants rates up now so pay growth does not stick at 3.5% or more. [4]

      Rates rise now→Pay deals agreed in the new year→Smaller pay rises written in

   How it works

   Economists who study central banks call this risk management: weighing how much each possible mistake would hurt.

   Greene judges a rate set too high can be cut later. [4] Inflation left to settle in is harder to undo, so she wants to act now. [4]

   Seen it before

   You take a coat when the sky looks unsure, because carrying it is easier than getting soaked.

   The truth

   • What is really going on Two Bank of England rate-setters, Huw Pill and Megan Greene, said on Saturday that more rate rises are coming, though the Bank has not yet seen the pay rises they fear. [1][4]
   • Why it works on people A line like "we waited too long" makes the next rise sound overdue, not like a choice still being weighed. [1]
   • The Bank's own surveys have not found firms pushing prices up, a Guardian writer notes. [5] Most rate-setters expect the push anyway. [5]
   • Not everyone expects a December rise: ING's James Smith expects the next one in February. [8]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How high UK interest rates will go in 2027.

     Traders bet on a rate close to 5%, Pill calls that "not outrageous", and he sees almost no chance of the Iran war ending soon. [2]

1. 02

   Big Nvidia owners ask the board to wait

   What happened

   • Two big Nvidia shareholders asked its board on Friday not to rush to name a new boss. [16]
   • Nvidia is an AI chip maker. [20] Its founder, Jensen Huang, resigned as its boss on 12 November. [17]
   • Altimeter held about $1.9 billion of Nvidia shares in June. [16] Atreides held about $250 million. [16]
   • Their letter asks for "a slow, measured, and deliberate process" that keeps Huang's return possible. [16]
   • An online petition to bring him back claims more than 100,000 names, including over 5,000 Nvidia staff. [16]
   • Elon Musk said he signed it. [16]

   Who is involved

   • Altimeter Capital investment firm; big Nvidia owner
   • Atreides Management investment firm; Nvidia owner

   How it unfolded

   Huang quit after reports of affairs, one with a woman US officials said might be a spy for China. [18]

   1. October a report links Huang to a suspected spy
   2. 12 November Huang resigns

   Why it matters

   Investor Leo KoGuan, who has put about $1.3 billion into Nvidia, says he will add no more without Huang. [20]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why not just pick a new boss fast?

      "There are more questions about recent events than answers," the letter says. [17]

   2. 2

      Are those questions real?

      CNN reported that US intelligence has not established that the woman was a spy. [19]

      The claima Chinese spy

      vsvs

      CNN's reportnot established
   3. 3

      Who runs Nvidia in the meantime?

      Colette Kress, its finance chief for 13 years, is the stand-in boss, and the letter backs her. [16]

   4. 4

      So who holds the power here?

      The board alone picks the next boss, from inside or outside Nvidia. [18] Owners like KoGuan can only press it, or hold back their money. [20]

      Owners press→The board decides→The new boss is named

   How it works

   Economists call the two choices of an unhappy owner voice and exit: complain, or take the money away.

   Altimeter and Atreides chose voice, with a public letter. [16] KoGuan chose a kind of exit: no new money without Huang. [20]

   Seen it before

   A regular who dislikes a cafe can tell the owner, or just stop going.

   Why a central bank raises rates before it is sure it needs to

   Economists call it risk management: when nobody can tell which way prices will go, a central bank leans toward the mistake that is cheaper to fix.

   The twist

   Being unsure can make a central bank move sooner, not later. Greene thinks a rate set too high is easy to cut later, but inflation that settles in is hard to undo.

   The picture

   Raise too muchcut back later

   vsvs

   Wait too longbigger rises later

   Step by step

   1. 1 Nobody can be sure which way things will go
   2. 2 Each choice risks a different mistake
   3. 3 Weigh how much harm each mistake would do
   4. 4 Lean toward the mistake that is cheaper to fix

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • Big Nvidia owners ask the board to wait

     The same weighing points the other way: a new boss picked on wrong facts is hard to undo, and a stand-in can run Nvidia meanwhile.

   • Noel Tata warns against listing Tata Sons

     Noel Tata weighs a listing he fears would change how Tata works against slower fixes he wants to agree with the regulator.

   Where you've seen this

   Doctors

   a doctor orders a test when unsure, because missing an illness costs more than one extra test

   Smoke alarms

   they are set to go off too often, because a false alarm costs less than a missed fire

   Bridge builders

   engineers build stronger than the load they expect, because a collapse costs far more than extra steel

   The catch

   It only works if the costs are judged right. Rates raised too far hit factories, builders and new borrowers straight away, and cutting later does not give them that time back.

   And the whole of it

   Homeowners taking a new deal, workers bargaining for 2027 pay and savers all sit inside the Bank's guess. Each sees the cost of its own mistake clearly, and the rate-setters can only guess at the rest.

   The truth

   • What is really going on At Nvidia, two big owners asked the board for the opposite pace: no new boss until the facts about Jensen Huang's exit are known. [17]
   • The petition's count cannot be checked: it held names like "Tim Cruise" and "Xi Jingping". [18]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Who Nvidia's next boss will be.

     The board says it will look at people inside and outside the company, and it has named no one. [18]

   What comes next

   Nvidia's next quarterly results are expected on 17 November. [14]

1. 03

   Musk pitches a Tesla and SpaceX merger

   What happened

   • Elon Musk is pushing to merge Tesla, his car maker, with SpaceX, his rocket company, Mint reports. [21]
   • People familiar with the talks said a deal could be announced as soon as next month. [21]
   • Together the two are worth nearly $3.5 trillion at Friday's prices. [21]
   • That would make the joined firm the fifth biggest in the S&P 500. [21] The S&P 500 is a list of big US firms that index funds buy. [21]

   Who is involved

   • Tesla electric car maker
   • SpaceX rocket and satellite maker

   How it unfolded

   SpaceX first sold shares in June and was refused a quick place in the S&P 500. [21]

   The index needs a year of trading and a profit over the last four quarters. [21] SpaceX does not meet all of that yet. [21]

   1. June SpaceX sells its first shares
   2. After no quick place in the S&P 500

   Why it matters

   Funds that copy the S&P 500 hold about $16 trillion. [21] They would have to hold the joined firm if it got in. [21]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why merge two firms that make different things?

      A main motive would be shared costs for costly plans, like robots and data centres in orbit, Mint says. [21]

   2. 2

      What would the index add?

      TD Securities, a bank, estimates about $100 billion of buying from index funds if it got in. [21]

      $100 billionof buying from index funds, TD Securities estimates

   3. 3

      Are the shares cheap or dear?

      Tesla trades at more than 180 times its expected profit, against 18 times for the S&P 500. [21]

      Times expected profit

      Tesla180

      The S&P 50018
   4. 4

      So who holds the power?

      S&P Dow Jones Indices decides who joins, and it declined to comment. [21] If it said no, index funds would have to sell. [21]

      Merger agreed→S&P decides→Funds buy, or must sell

   How it works

   Finance calls the buying that follows a place in a big index the index effect.

   Index funds buy every member by its size, whatever its prospects. [21] So a place in the S&P 500 brings buyers who never chose the shares. [21]

   Seen it before

   A song added to a huge playlist gets played by people who never picked it.

   The truth

   • Tesla and SpaceX did not reply to emails, and S&P would not discuss it. [21]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Tesla and SpaceX will merge, and whether the joined firm would get into the S&P 500.

     A deal could come as soon as next month, people familiar say, but SpaceX does not yet meet the index's trading and profit rules. [21]

2. 04

   Bitcoin falls to a three-month low

   What happened

   • Bitcoin fell to $63,311 early on Sunday in Asia, its lowest since 17 August. [22]
   • Bitcoin is the biggest digital currency. [22] It dropped 5.7% in the US on Saturday. [22]
   • Ether, the second-biggest, fell to $1,731, its lowest since 9 July. [22]

   How it unfolded

   Bitcoin has lost about 25% since 21 October. [22] Its low for the year is $57,742, reached on 1 July. [22]

   1. 1 July the year's low
   2. 21 October the slide begins
   3. Sunday about 25% lower

   Why it matters

   Many traders had bought with borrowed money, and their bets were closed out as prices fell. [22]

   About $1.9 billion of such bets were wiped out in the 24 hours to Sunday morning in Singapore. [22]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why did the fall speed up?

      Bitcoin fell through its average price of the last 200 days, about $73,000. [22] That set off forced selling, said Rich Rosenblum of GSR, a crypto trader. [22]

      Price falls below $73,000→Forced selling→A deeper fall
   2. 2

      Who else has been selling?

      US funds that hold bitcoin lost almost $3 billion of money between 30 October and 13 November. [22]

      $3 billiontaken out of US bitcoin funds in two weeks

   3. 3

      What links this to the rest of today?

      Bets on higher interest rates are one cause of the slide, Bloomberg reports. [22]

      Rate rises expected→Less appetite for risk→Bitcoin falls

   How it works

   Traders call a price where buyers stepped in before a support level.

   Bitcoin found buyers near these prices over the last year, Rosenblum said. [22] So Rosenblum thinks it may be near a floor. [22]

   Seen it before

   Shoppers who saw a price once often wait for it, then buy when it comes back.

   The truth

   • Rosenblum's floor is a reading of past prices, not a promise. [22] The year's low is lower still, at $57,742. [22]
3. 05

   Anthropic's share sale comes this week

   What happened

   • Anthropic, maker of the Claude chatbot, expects to price its first shares on 18 November. [14] Trading on the Nasdaq exchange is due on 19 November. [14]
   • About 20% of the shares are aimed at ordinary savers, against a usual 5% to 10%. [14]
   • Its 7 co-founders each own about 1.4% of the company. [15]
   • At the planned price, each stake would be worth $17 billion to $18 billion. [15]

   How it unfolded

   It is offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. [14]

   1. 18 November the share price is set
   2. 19 November trading starts on Nasdaq

   Why it matters

   At nearly $1.4 trillion, it would be one of the biggest share sales on record. [15]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Does Anthropic actually make money?

      In the nine months to September it had $33.24 billion of revenue. [14] It made an adjusted profit of $5.59 billion. [14]

      Revenue$33.24 billion

      Adjusted profit$5.59 billion
   2. 2

      Then why does it also show a huge loss?

      Under standard accounting rules it lost $104.04 billion. [14] That loss comes mostly from re-valuing loans that can turn into shares, and other contracts. [14]

      $5.59 billionAdjusted profit

      vsvs

      $104.04 billion lossStandard rules
   3. 3

      What does it spend the most on?

      Computing cost $9.9 billion in the September quarter, equal to 58% of its revenue. [14]

      58 of 100

      of revenue spent on computing

   How it works

   Accountants call standard rules GAAP; firms also show adjusted figures that leave some items out.

   Anthropic's adjusted figures leave out swings in the value of its financial contracts. [14] That turns the loss into a profit. [14]

   Seen it before

   A school report that leaves out one bad test makes the average look better.

   The truth

   • Both dates "remain subject to the final offering process", The Economic Times notes. [14]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What price Anthropic's shares will sell at.

     The range is $70 to $78 a share, and the final price is not due until 18 November. [14]

4. 06

   A week of big tests for markets

   What happened

   • Nvidia reports its quarterly results, expected on 17 November. [14] Analysts expect revenue of about $109 billion. [14]
   • The US central bank publishes the minutes of its October meeting this week, the record of what was said. [10]
   • Walmart, which sells to about 280 million customers a week, reports results on 19 November. [12]
   • Lowe's, a US home-repair chain, reports results this week. [13] Its rival Home Depot also has results ahead. [13]
   • In Asia, Japan publishes growth and price figures, and China its monthly figures on the economy. [10]
   • Thailand's growth figures on Monday are expected to show 3% a year, economists polled by the WSJ say. [11]

   Who is involved

   • Home Depot home-repair chain
   • Lowe's home-repair chain
   • Japan growth and prices
   • China monthly figures

   Why it matters

   The figures will test bets that the US central bank raises rates again in December. [10]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why are the home-repair chains in focus?

      Home Depot's shares rose 25.3% and Lowe's 21.9% since 7 October. [13] The S&P 500 fell 2.7%. [13]

      % rise since 7 October

      Home Depot25.3

      Lowe's21.9
   2. 2

      So what is the worry?

      Stifel, a US bank, says "these levels require certainty not currently offered by the home centers". [13]

   3. 3

      What is Nvidia's test?

      Investors want proof that Nvidia keeps growing under a stand-in boss. [14]

      Huang gone→Stand-in boss→Results test it

   How it works

   Analysts compare a share's price with the profit behind it, and call that its valuation.

   Against the S&P 500, both chains are dearer than they have been 96% of the time over 5 years. [13]

   Seen it before

   A house priced at the top of the street needs everything in it to be right.

5. 07

   Berkshire shares end the week at a record

   What happened

   • Berkshire Hathaway's shares closed at a record on Friday, their fourth record close in a row. [23]
   • Berkshire is a US group whose big share holdings include Bank of America. [23]
   • Its shares have risen 19.1% since 1 October, while the S&P 500 dipped 1.2%. [23]
   • This week both Berkshire share types rose 3.9%, against 2.5% for the S&P 500. [23]

   Who is involved

   • Greg Abel Berkshire's new boss

   How it unfolded

   Greg Abel is Berkshire's new boss after Warren Buffett. [23]

   Why it matters

   Investors appear to see Berkshire as fairly safe while they worry about AI shares, CNBC says. [23]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      What has Berkshire been selling?

      Its accounts suggest it sold more Bank of America shares, a ninth quarter of selling. [23]

   2. 2

      How much has it sold?

      It owned just over 1 billion Bank of America shares in mid-2024, and 483.4 million by June. [23]

      just over 1 billionMid-2024

      ↓→

      483.4 millionJune

   The truth

   • The Bank of America sales are an estimate from Berkshire's accounts. [23] Monday's filing will show the real number. [23]

   What comes next

   Berkshire files its list of share holdings on Monday. [23]

6. 08

   Robot start-up Foundation misses its payroll

   What happened

   • Foundation, a US maker of military humanoid robots, has not paid staff since missing its 30 October payroll. [24]
   • Eric Trump, the US president's son, is an investor and adviser. [24]
   • Its boss, Sankaet Pathak, borrowed $4.6 million from the company last year to buy a house. [24]
   • Pathak is Foundation's only board member and owns most of its shares. [24]
   • He is trying to raise hundreds of millions of dollars at a $3 billion value. [24]

   Who is involved

   • Eric Trump investor and adviser

   How it unfolded

   His last firm, Synapse, collapsed in 2024 and locked over 100,000 Americans out of $265 million in deposits. [24]

   1. 2024 Synapse collapses
   2. 30 October Foundation misses payroll

   Why it matters

   Some staff say the $4.6 million could have paid them, people familiar told CNBC. [24]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Did nobody know about the loan?

      Existing investors knew of it from the company's accounts, people said. [24] Pathak called it a short-term loan. [24]

      Loan in the accounts→Investors knew→Nobody stopped it
   2. 2

      Did it really win Pentagon contracts?

      The widely reported $24 million in Pentagon contracts came from a firm it bought, Boardwalk Robotics, people said. [24]

      $24 millioncontracts that came with a firm Foundation bought

   3. 3

      So what happens now?

      Foundation needs new money soon, and insiders fear it could fold without it. [24]

      Cash runs low→New money needed→Or the firm folds

   How it works

   Corporate governance is the set of checks on how a company is run, led by its board.

   With one board member who owns most shares, that setup let Pathak lend himself $4.6 million, people said. [24]

   Seen it before

   A club whose treasurer approves his own spending has nobody to say no.

   The truth

   • A spokesman for Pathak got CNBC's questions but did not respond. [24]
7. 09

   Noel Tata warns against listing Tata Sons

   What happened

   • Noel Tata, chairman of Tata Trusts, spoke against listing Tata Sons on Saturday. [25] Tata Trusts is the biggest owner of Tata Sons. [25]
   • Selling Tata Sons shares to the public could change the way Tata works, he warned. [25]
   • "A day may come when we have 30,000-40,000 shareholders and profits become more important than philanthropy," he said. [25]
   • Tata Trusts offered 25,000 crore rupees to the Shapoorji Pallonji group, which owns 18.4%. [25] The aim is to win its support for staying private. [25]

   Who is involved

   • Noel Tata chairman of Tata Trusts
   • Tata Sons the company that may be listed

   How it unfolded

   On 11 September India's central bank refused Tata Sons' request to escape the listing rule. [25] Six days later its board voted to start listing. [25]

   1. 11 September the central bank says no
   2. Six days later the board votes to list

   Why it matters

   It decides whether Tata Sons stays mostly owned by charities, or answers to thousands of shareholders. [25]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      Why must it list at all?

      India's central bank counts Tata Sons as a large lender that is not a bank, and such lenders must list. [25]

      A large non-bank lender→Listing rule→Tata Sons must list
   2. 2

      Is the Tata side united?

      Two vice-chairmen of Tata Trusts, Venu Srinivasan and Vijay Singh, favour listing instead. [25]

   3. 3

      So who holds the power?

      India's central bank sets the rule, and its governor has criticised Noel Tata's plan to merge firms into Tata Sons. [25]

      The central bank's rule→Tata's merger plan→The governor objects

   How it works

   Business schools call this the shareholder or stakeholder question: is a firm run for its owners, or everyone it affects?

   Tata's charities own most of Tata Sons and fund good causes from it. [25] Thousands of new owners could put profit first, Noel Tata fears. [25]

   Seen it before

   A family bakery that sells shares to strangers must start asking what the strangers want.

   Noel Tata weighs a listing he fears would change how Tata works against slower fixes he wants to agree with the regulator.

   The idea, in story 02: Why a central bank raises rates before it is sure it needs to →

   The truth

   • Tata Sons has not yet filed a draft prospectus, the first formal paper for a listing. [25]

   What comes next

   The Tata Sons board meets on 26 November. [25]

8. 10

   Fitch keeps the UAE's AA- grade

   What happened

   • Fitch Ratings kept the United Arab Emirates' credit grade at AA- on Friday, with a stable outlook. [26]
   • AA- is the fourth-highest grade on Fitch's scale. [26] A high grade makes it easier for a country to borrow. [26]
   • Fitch expects the UAE's economy to grow 0.5% this year, even as the part outside oil shrinks about 1.5%. [26]
   • Fitch says Dubai's economy, still recovering from the Iran war, stays below its 2025 size next year. [26]
   • Fitch expects the oil and gas part of the economy to grow about 7% this year and 26% next year. [26]

   How it unfolded

   The UAE left OPEC+, the oil producers' group that sets output limits, in May. [26]

   1. May the UAE leaves OPEC+
   2. Friday Fitch keeps the grade

   Why it matters

   Oil sales held up through the war, which "largely offsets" the damage, Fitch said. [26]

   Think it through

   1. 1

      How does a country near a war keep a strong grade?

      Abu Dhabi's savings abroad equal 180% of the whole UAE economy, among the highest Fitch rates. [26]

      180%Abu Dhabi's foreign savings, against UAE output

   2. 2

      Then who pays for the war's damage?

      Fitch expects each emirate to bear the cost of the war, not the UAE's federal government. [26]

   3. 3

      So what is really going on?

      Abu Dhabi's oil export revenue this year should beat Fitch's prewar forecast, thanks to high prices and more barrels. [26]

      No OPEC+ limits→More barrels at high prices→More oil money

   How it works

   Credit analysts call this a sovereign rating: a grade on how safely a country can repay what it borrows.

   Fitch weighs what a country owes against what it owns. [26] The UAE owes little and owns much abroad, so its grade holds. [26]

   Seen it before

   A family with big savings and a small loan still gets credit after a bad year at work.

   The truth

   • The 0.5% growth is Fitch's forecast. [26] Dubai's own figures showed its economy 2.3% smaller in the first half. [26]