Day Lila

Food & Farming · Tuesday, 22 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Trump says the US will buy potash from Belarus. The fertilisers American farms cannot get are nitrogen and phosphate.

Food & Farming 22 sources

Potash is the one fertiliser American farms are not short of. The two they are short of, nitrogen and phosphate, are held up by the war on Iran.

$40m

of Belarusian money Lukashenko says is stuck in US banks

he asked for it back when he said potash sales had resumed [1]

25

political prisoners Belarus freed on 16 September

the US had asked for 200 and is still pressing for more [2]

$6

a gallon, the level US diesel passed for the first time on record this month

farm fuel is up about $11 an acre for corn on a year ago [3][22]

The lead story — what happened

  • Trump said on Monday that the US government is working on a deal to buy potash from Belarus, at a price he said would be well below what it pays Canada. [1]
  • Potash is a mined mineral that helps a plant resist disease and raises the size of a harvest. [1]
  • Canada supplies the vast majority of American potash imports. [1]
  • Josh Linville, a fertiliser analyst at the trading firm StoneX, said American farms have not struggled to find potash and have more than enough. [1]
  • The fertilisers those farms do need help with are phosphate and nitrogen, Linville said. [1]
  • The war on Iran has blocked most Gulf shipments of nitrogen fertiliser, natural gas and sulfur, which phosphate mining needs. [1]
  • Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko, said on 11 September that his country had resumed selling potash to the US after American sanctions were lifted. [1]
  • Lukashenko also said he wants more than $40 million of Belarusian money released from the US banking system. [1]
  • Those sanctions were eased as Belarus freed political prisoners, 25 of them on 16 September after a visit by Trump's envoy John Coale. [2]
  • Sanctions and the closing of a Lithuanian port on the Baltic made Belarusian and Russian potash expensive to ship, and Linville says potash is too cheap to be worth carrying across the Atlantic anyway. [1]
  • Canada's trade minister Dominic LeBlanc and Nutrien, the world's biggest potash producer, did not comment. [1]
The fertiliser on offer is the one American farms already have enough of. The two they cannot get come out of a war zone.

Who is involved

  • Donald Trump

    the US president; he announced the potash deal in a post on his own social network

  • Alexander Lukashenko

    Belarus's authoritarian leader and a close ally of Russia; he says sales to the US have restarted and wants $40m unfrozen

  • Josh Linville

    a fertiliser analyst at the trading firm StoneX; he says potash is not what American farms are short of

  • Nutrien

    the world's biggest potash producer, based in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan; it did not comment

  • John Coale

    Trump's special envoy for Belarus, a lawyer and friend of Trump; his visit to Minsk came before the prisoner release

How it unfolded

  1. Last year the US starts negotiating with Belarus while the European Union keeps its sanctions on [2]
  2. 11 Sep Lukashenko says potash sales to the US have resumed, and asks for $40m back [1]
  3. 16 Sep Belarus frees 25 political prisoners after a visit by Trump's envoy [2]
  4. 21 Sep Trump says a massive deal for Belarusian potash is being worked on [1]

Where this points

Watch whether any Belarusian potash is actually loaded, and whether Lithuania reopens the port of Klaipeda to it - without that route the cargo has to go the long way through Russia's Arctic. [1]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Fuel at record prices High

Diesel futures in Europe closed at an all-time high last week, more than double their level at the start of 2026. [3] Petrol in Nigeria reached about 1,400 naira a litre this month, up from roughly 1,200 a month earlier. [19]

Wars damaging refineries High

Russia is set to extend its ban on diesel exports to the end of October after Ukrainian drone strikes cut its refinery output. [4] The war on Iran has blocked most Gulf shipments of nitrogen fertiliser and sulfur. [1]

A drought year Building

El Nino, a warming of the Pacific that moves the world's rain, has parched Indonesia. It is fighting its worst wildfires in eleven years. [6] In the US, parts of the Plains got only spotty showers, and winter wheat planting slowed. [20]

Studies pointing at processed food Building

A French study of 112,395 people linked eight common preservatives to higher rates of high blood pressure. [12] Scans of 615 American adults linked ultra-processed food to fat inside the thigh muscle. [13]

The rest of the day

17 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Diesel sets records worldwide, and Russia holds its own back

    Diesel futures in Europe closed at an all-time high last week, more than double their level at the start of 2026, and average US retail diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on record this month. [3] Wars in Iran and Ukraine have damaged refineries in both regions, and Middle East diesel exports halved between March and August to 800,000 barrels a day. [3] Russia is set to extend its own export ban to the end of October after drone strikes cut output at three of its six largest diesel refineries. [4]

    The average price of a gallon of diesel in the United States.

    Why it matters — American farm fuel costs are up about $11 an acre for corn on last year, and most food reaches a shop on a diesel truck. [22]

  2. 03

    A damaged Saudi pipeline keeps oil above $100

    Brent crude, the benchmark price for a barrel of oil, fell about 1% on Friday to $103.77 but stayed above $100, after reaching four-month highs earlier in the week. [5] Loadings at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub of Yanbu were suspended and some deliveries to Europe cancelled after its East-West pipeline was damaged in an attack that hit three pumping stations. [5] Traders say a long closure could cut off as much as 4% of world oil supply. [5]

    Why it matters — Diesel is made from crude, and the same wars are blocking the natural gas and sulfur that nitrogen and phosphate fertiliser need. [1][5]

  3. 04

    Indonesia's worst fires in eleven years reach a court

    Indonesia is fighting its most intense wildfires in eleven years, with El Nino conditions drying out forests and fields on Borneo and Sumatra. [6] The haze has driven up breathing illnesses and crossed into Singapore and Malaysia. [6] President Prabowo Subianto told his cabinet there would be zero tolerance for anyone who starts a fire, and asked ministers to look at making it a crime called ecological terrorism. [6] On Saturday, indigenous and civil-society groups in West Kalimantan filed a class action against him, with a first hearing on 7 October. [7]

    Why it matters — The plaintiffs say Indonesia's government has failed to stop fires that return every year, and a judge will now hear that claim. [7]

  4. 05

    India and New Zealand open their food trade on 20 October

    A free trade agreement between India and New Zealand comes into force on 20 October, after both countries ratified it, New Zealand's trade minister Todd McClay said. [8] From the first day, 57% of New Zealand's exports enter India tariff-free, including sheep meat and wool, rising later to 82%. [8] New Zealand also gets quota access for apples and kiwifruit, and India's tariff on wine falls from 150% to either 25% or 50% over ten years. [8] The two governments want trade to double from about $2.3 billion by 2030. [8]

    India's tariff on a bottle of New Zealand wine, at the cheaper end of the range.

    Why it matters — A 150% tariff on wine shows how closed India's market has been, and New Zealand sells the lamb, apples and kiwifruit it now gets access for. [8]

  5. 06

    Three quarters of US counties have asked for large-animal vets

    A new report from the Economic Research Service, the research arm of the US agriculture department, finds that three quarters of US counties have been nominated as veterinary shortage areas since 2010, many of them more than once. [9] Rural students apply to veterinary school in proportion to their share of the population, at 14%. [9] The money points the other way. Average revenue at rural food-animal practices fell 22% between 2021 and 2025, to $1.54 million, and rural food-animal vets' real income fell 19% from 2017 to 2024. [9]

    75 of 100

    US counties named as veterinary shortage areas since 2010

    Three quarters of all counties have been nominated at least once.

    Why it matters — A vet is who spots bird flu or bovine tuberculosis in a herd first, so where there are fewer of them an outbreak is found later. [9]

  6. 07

    A record summer of food poisoning sends Americans to the garden

    About 44 million American households, a third of the country, grow some of their own fruit or vegetables, a number rising about 4% a year for five years, the National Gardening Association says. [10] More people turned to gardens and farmers' markets after a record summer of foodborne illness. [10] James Rogers of Consumer Reports says the size of the grower is not what decides safety. Big washing plants can spread one contaminated batch through a whole run, and most small growers are exempt from the federal rules on irrigation water and testing. [10]

    Why it matters — One food-safety expert keeps animals, small children and rainwater barrels out of his own vegetable beds, because washing with water alone removes only about 90% of most germs. [10]

  7. 08

    Four to six servings of whole grains, and several risks fall at once

    A review of 87 clinical trials covering more than 6,500 people, published in the European Heart Journal, found that eating more whole grains lowered body weight, waist size, blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar and a marker of inflammation. [11] Benefits appeared at 30 to 40 grams a day and were strongest at 60 to 100 grams, about four to six servings. [11] A whole grain keeps all three parts of the kernel; refining strips two of them away. [11] The trials ran about eight weeks on average. [11]

    1. 1Benefits start35 g
    2. 2Strongest effect80 g
    3. 3Little evidence above here140 g
    Grams of whole grain a day across the 87 trials.

    Why it matters — The lead author, Helda Tutunchi of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences in Iran, says the gain comes from several small improvements together rather than one large one. [11]

  8. 09

    Eight preservatives, 112,395 people, and higher blood pressure

    French researchers followed 112,395 volunteers for seven to eight years, recording everything they ate for three days every six months. [12] The people eating the most non-antioxidant preservatives, the kind used to stop bacteria and mould growing, had a 29% higher rate of high blood pressure and a 16% higher rate of heart disease than those eating the least. [12] Eight preservatives were linked to high blood pressure on their own, among them sodium nitrite and citric acid. [12] The study is observational and cannot prove cause. [12]

    Why it matters — Almost nobody avoids them: 99.5% of the volunteers ate at least one preservative, and the lead researcher, Mathilde Touvier of the French health institute INSERM, says European and US regulators should look at them again. [12]

  9. 10

    Ultra-processed food and fat inside the thigh muscle

    Researchers scanned the thighs of 615 American adults at risk of knee osteoarthritis and found that those eating more ultra-processed food had more fat inside the muscle itself, not only around it. [13] The link held after accounting for calories, fat intake, exercise and social background. [13] Ultra-processed foods are industrially made products such as packaged snacks, soft drinks, frozen pizza, hot dogs and mass-produced bread. [13] Fat inside those muscles may weaken the support around the knee, the authors write in the journal Radiology. [13]

    Why it matters — Obesity and knee osteoarthritis have risen together for decades, and this study looks inside the muscle rather than at what the scales say. [13]

  10. 11

    Four weeks of a different dinner moved the ageing markers

    104 Australians aged 65 to 75 were put on one of four diets for four weeks at the University of Sydney. [14] Every diet gave 14% of energy as protein, but they differed in fat, carbohydrate and how much of the protein came from animals. [14] Three of the four groups ended with a lower biological age, an estimate built from 20 blood markers including cholesterol, insulin and C-reactive protein, which measures inflammation. [14] The clearest result was in the group eating less fat and more carbohydrate. The researchers call it preliminary. [14]

    Why it matters — The group whose diet changed least, higher fat with animal protein, showed no change at all, which is the comparison that makes the rest worth watching. [14]

  11. 12

    The fats hidden in 56 kinds of rice

    Researchers at Hokkaido University in Japan analysed 56 varieties of japonica rice, the short-grain type eaten across Japan, and identified 196 different fat molecules in five groups. [15] Rice is more than 85% starch and only about 2% fat, so its fats had been studied far less than its starch. [15] Black and green pigmented varieties scored highest on the team's health-promotion index and appear to be digested more slowly than ordinary white rice. [15] The work was published in Food Research International. [15]

    Why it matters — Rice feeds more than half the world, so a difference between varieties in how fast it is digested reaches a very large number of plates. [15]

  12. 13

    The gap between living long and living well is nine years

    Global life expectancy was 71.4 years in 2021 while healthy life expectancy was 61.9, a gap of nine and a half years, according to the World Health Organization. [16] One analysis found the gap widened in 203 of 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2023. [16] Writing in The Conversation, researchers set out what is known about eating less. The largest human trial, CALERIE, followed 218 adults for two years who cut their intake by 12% on average, improving blood pressure and insulin sensitivity. [16]

    Why it matters — The trial measured blood markers. It did not test whether people kept living independently for longer, which is what functional healthspan means. [16]

  13. 14

    Obesity and diabetes climb fastest where diets changed fastest

    A review in Nature Reviews Endocrinology sets out the burden of obesity and type 2 diabetes across the Middle East and North Africa, where rates are among the highest in the world. [17] Wealthy Gulf countries changed what they eat earliest and now have some of the highest rates anywhere. [17] North African countries are seeing some of the steepest increases in high body weight and high blood sugar. [17] The authors blame poor diet quality, inactivity, food environments built around cheap processed food, and economic pressure. [17]

    Why it matters — The review calls the economic cost substantial and under-recognised, through health spending and lost work. [17]

  14. 15

    Two days of food diaries catch the main pattern, not the third

    Nutrition researchers asked 302 adults to record everything they ate on 20 separate days across about three months, then tested how well shorter records reproduced the same eating patterns. [18] Two non-consecutive days were enough to identify the two main patterns, which the authors label prudent, traditional and western. [18] The third pattern appeared largely by chance, depending on which two days happened to be sampled, and foods were assigned to it wrongly. [18] Three-day and four-day records behaved the same way. [18]

    Why it matters — The paper marks where a short food diary can be trusted: two days give the main patterns, and the ones after that are noise. [18]

  15. 16

    Nigeria's pump prices hit a record before an election

    Petrol in Lagos and Abuja has risen to about 1,400 naira a litre, roughly $1.05, from about 1,200 a month earlier, and diesel is above 2,000 naira. [19] The rise followed a decision by the Dangote refinery, Africa's largest at 700,000 barrels a day, to raise its wholesale price to 1,350 naira. [19] Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer, so the increase shows that a refinery at home does not shield a country from world prices. [19] Food inflation eased slightly in August but stayed at 19.57%. [19]

    Nigeria's inflation in August, compared with a year earlier.

    Why it matters — A truck driver in Abuja told Reuters that fuel costs are eating into earnings, and an election is due on 16 January 2027, with opposition politicians making fuel the test of the Nigerian government's record. [19]

  16. 17

    Rain reaches dry US ground, but the Plains stay short

    Rain across much of the eastern half of the US in the week to 12 September improved soil moisture in some drought-hit areas. [20] Four inches or more fell in parts of the Ohio Valley, the east-central Plains and the western Corn Belt, according to the weekly bulletin from the US weather and agriculture agencies. [20] The rain also disrupted fieldwork and caused pockets of flash flooding. [20] Large sections of the Plains got only spotty showers, which held back winter wheat planting. [20]

    Why it matters — Winter wheat is sown in autumn so it can root before the cold, and the bulletin reports the dry Plains slowing that planting. [20]

  17. 18

    US farm lender rewrites its loan rules as a deadline lands

    The Farm Service Agency, the US government body that lends to farmers who cannot get ordinary bank credit, told its state offices this month that it has streamlined and modernised its farm loan programmes. [21] The same notice opens enrolment for 2026 and 2027 in the main safety-net schemes, which pay out when a crop's price or its revenue drops below a set level. [21] It also reminds farmers that 30 September is the Minnesota closing date for disaster cover on wild rice, asparagus, strawberries, garlic and farmed fish. [21]

    Why it matters — The 30 September date closes cover for the crops listed, and it falls in the same weeks as the harvest. [21]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why a shortage gets answered with a purchase, a ban or a punishment

No government can make more diesel or more fertiliser this month, so each one does the thing it can do on its own.

The twist

A government facing a shortage does what it can do without anyone's agreement, and buying elsewhere, banning an export and punishing someone are usually the only three.

The picture

Three governments, three moves this week. None of them makes more fuel or more fertiliser.

How it works

  1. A shortage starts somewhere far away
  2. Making more takes years and other countries
  3. But a government can act alone on trade and on punishment
  4. So it buys elsewhere, bans an export, or punishes someone
  5. The price moves a little, and the shortage stays

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • Russia extending its diesel export ban

    It cannot rebuild the refineries the drones hit, so it keeps its own diesel at home by order instead

  • Indonesia's president demanding an ecological terrorism law

    He cannot make it rain on burning ground, so he reaches for punishment, which is the part he writes himself

  • India and New Zealand opening their food trade

    Neither government can grow more lamb or more apples, so it changes the tariff, which is the step it signs alone

Where you've seen this

A town with no water

it bans hosepipes, because it cannot make rain

A country short of electricity

it switches off districts by rota, because a power station takes years to build

A hospital short of doctors

it caps how many patients each one sees, because training a doctor takes ten years

The catch

Sometimes the quick move does work - naming a second seller really can pull a price down - but it never makes more of the thing that is missing.

And the whole of it

Nobody in this story can make nitrogen appear. A president can post an announcement, an analyst can say it will not help much, and a farmer still pays whatever the pump says on the morning the corn is ready.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

The potash announcement is aimed at Canada, not at a shortage. The fertiliser analyst Josh Linville says American farms have plenty of potash and are short of nitrogen and phosphate, which the war on Iran is blocking, and Belarus's own ask is $40 million of its money held in US banks. [1]

Why it works on us — One sentence promising a lower price than Canada is easy to repeat; saying that potash, nitrogen and phosphate are three different substances mined and made in three different ways takes longer.

Who gains

  • Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus's leader — Sanctions were lifted and an American purchase is now being talked about in public, after his government freed 25 prisoners on 16 September. [1][2]
  • US refineries — They ran at their highest rate in eight years in late August while diesel prices set records. [3]
  • The Dangote refinery in Nigeria — It raised its wholesale price to 1,350 naira a litre, and its owner is selling shares to the public to fund an expansion. [19]
  • New Zealand's sheep and fruit farmers — From 20 October, 57% of the country's exports enter India tariff-free, with quota access for apples and kiwifruit. [8]
  • City vet practices in the US — They pay better than rural food-animal work, whose average practice revenue fell 22% in four years to $1.54 million. [9]

Who pays

  • Canada's potash industry — Its largest customer said in public that it is shopping for a cheaper supplier. [1]
  • American farms needing nitrogen and phosphate — Those two are blocked by the war, and the deal being announced is for a third fertiliser they already have. [1]
  • Households in Nigeria — Petrol is up about 200 naira a litre in a month while food inflation sits at 19.57%. [19]
  • People breathing the smoke on Borneo and Sumatra — Indonesia's worst fires in eleven years have driven up breathing illnesses, and the haze has reached Singapore and Malaysia. [6]
  • Beef herds in rural American counties — Three quarters of US counties have been named veterinary shortage areas since 2010, and cattle need treating one at a time. [9]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    Whether any Belarusian potash reaches an American farm.

    Trump named no volume, no price and no date, and Nutrien and Canada's trade minister did not comment. [1]

  • 02

    Whether Lithuania will let Belarusian potash through the port of Klaipeda.

    Without that route the cargo goes the long way through Russia's Arctic, and Josh Linville says potash is too cheap to justify the trip. [1]

  • 03

    What happens to the $40 million Lukashenko says is stuck in the US banking system.

    He raised it on 11 September when he said sales had resumed, and the report carries no American answer. [1]

  • 04

    How long the wars keep nitrogen and sulfur off the market.

    Most Gulf shipments are blocked, and the International Energy Agency says refineries worldwide are already stretched to capacity. [1][3]

  • 05

    Whether Russia's diesel export ban really is extended to the end of October.

    It was reported by the newspaper Vedomosti from two unnamed sources, and the Russian government has not announced it. [4]

  • 06

    Whether the eight preservatives raise blood pressure or merely travel with it.

    The French study followed 112,395 people but is observational, and its authors say it cannot prove cause. [12]

  • 07

    Whether the whole-grain gains last beyond a couple of months.

    The 87 trials averaged about eight weeks and measured risk factors, not heart attacks or strokes. [11]

  • 08

    Who will be held responsible for Indonesia's fires.

    President Prabowo demanded zero tolerance, and a class action against him and other authorities opens in Pontianak on 7 October. [6][7]

  • 09

    Whether younger blood markers after four weeks mean anything for health.

    104 people ate the diets for four weeks, and the Sydney researchers call the result preliminary. [14]

04 Hope carry this

A review of 87 clinical trials covering more than 6,500 people found that eating 60 to 100 grams of whole grains a day lowered body weight, waist size, blood pressure, cholesterol and blood sugar together. The gains started at about half that amount.

Also true today

  • Australians aged 65 to 75 who changed what they ate for four weeks showed lower biological-age markers in three of the four diet groups tested at the University of Sydney.
  • Rain fell across much of the eastern United States in the week to 12 September, and soil moisture improved in areas that had been in drought.
  • Indigenous and civil-society groups in West Kalimantan had their class action over Indonesia's forest fires registered at the Pontianak court, and the first hearing is set for 7 October.

Across the beats