Mind & Body · Thursday, 29 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

About 3 in 4 former NFL players who died from 2008 to 2023 had the brain disease CTE, a Boston University estimate finds

A study of 2,362 former NFL players corrects for which families gave brains to science and puts CTE at 74.5%, between an August study's floor of 24.5% and ceiling of 97.7%.

74.5%

of former NFL players who died from 2008 to 2023 had CTE, by the new estimate

down from the 99% a count of donated brains alone gave in 2017 [3]

2,362

former NFL players in the study, almost 400 of whom gave their brains

the rest were counted through medical and death records [1]

5 times

as likely to give a brain when the family had seen symptoms

that is why the donated brains alone overstated the disease [3]

27%

of the players in the study had dementia, the researchers estimated

CTE in the brain does not always bring symptoms [2]

The lead story — what happened

A Boston University team estimates that about 3 in 4 former NFL players died with CTE. [1] CTE, chronic traumatic encephalopathy, is a brain disease linked to repeated blows to the head. [3] In CTE, a brain protein called tau goes wrong and forms damaging clumps. [3] The disease can only be confirmed after death, by examining the brain. [3]
The study covered 2,362 former NFL players who died between 2008 and 2023. [1] Almost 400 of them had given their brains to science. [1] Among those donated brains, 93.5% had CTE. [1] But families who had seen symptoms were 5 times more likely to give a brain. [3] So the donated brains leaned towards players who had been sicker in life. [1]
The team used medical records of donors and non-donors to correct for that. [1] That brought the estimate down to 74.5% of all the players. [3] In 2017, a count of donated brains alone had put the figure at 99%. [3] Fewer than 1% of brains in ordinary community brain banks show CTE. [1]
An August study in The BMJ, a medical journal, could only give a range. [4] Counting every unexamined brain as healthy gave a floor of 24.5%. [4] Counting every unexamined brain as diseased gave a ceiling of 97.7%. [4] That August range covered players who died from 2016 to 2021. [4] The new estimate of 74.5% falls inside that range. [3]
About 27% of the players in the study had dementia, the researchers estimated. [2] Having CTE in the brain does not mean a person will get dementia. [2] Russell Lonser, an outside brain surgeon, called the 74.5% 'an estimate from a model'. [1] He said the figure includes early brain changes that may never have caused symptoms. [1] He said football's share is unknown without men who never played contact sport. [1]
The senior author is Yorghos Tripodis, a statistics professor at Boston University. [1] Tripodis says the more blows to the head over a lifetime, the higher the risk. [1] A typical high school or college season can bring one player 600 to 1,000 smaller blows. [7] Daniel Daneshvar, who led the August study, said most head hits come before the NFL. [5] He said nearly 70% of head impacts happen in practice, not in games. [5] Harvard team doctors were already warning about football concussions in 1906, a historian writes. [6]

1August floor24.5%
2New estimate74.5%
3Donated brains93.5%
4August ceiling97.7%
52017 count99%

Who is involved

Yorghos Tripodis

a statistics professor at Boston University; senior author of the new estimate
Russell Lonser

a brain surgeon at Ohio State University, not part of the study; says it is a model's estimate
Daniel Daneshvar

a rehabilitation doctor at Mass General Brigham; led the August study that gave a range
The NFL

the top US league for American football; says it works to reduce head impacts

How it unfolded

1906 Harvard team doctors warn about football concussions [6]
2017 a count of donated brains puts CTE at 99% [3]
Aug 2026 a BMJ study gives a range of 24.5% to 97.7% [4]
28 Oct 2026 the corrected estimate: 74.5% [3]

Where this points

After the August study, the NFL said it works to reduce concussions and head impacts. [2] No test can yet confirm CTE in a living player. [1] So the risk to today's players is hard to know, Tripodis says. [1] Lonser says the next answer needs living players followed over time, beside men never hit. [1]

Signals on this beat

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.

Care closing where patients are few High↑

US hospitals in Montana, Oregon and Missouri closed intensive care units for children this year. [11] A Northern Ireland trust cut its youth crisis scheme to weekdays to save money. [17] Belfast's needle exchange shuts on 2 November after losing its building. [16]

Paying before getting care Building↑

A Virginia urgent care clinic asked an uninsured woman for $400 before an allergy shot. [13] US family carers now spend $11,508 a year of their own money. [12] Rural US methadone patients drive close to 50 minutes each way. [15]

Body claims ahead of the proof Building→

Experts say iron deficiency cannot be diagnosed from a face, despite 'ferritin face' videos. [23] Bottom shape reveals nothing about hormone levels, a writer in The Conversation says. [24]

Smoke and dirty air in the body High↑

Lahore's air quality score read 419 on Thursday morning, the world's worst. [22] A US study linked wildfire smoke in pregnancy to more autism in children. [21] Modelling estimates data centre pollution could cause nearly 1,300 US deaths a year by 2030. [28]

The rest of the day

24 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Ofcom sets out age checks for the UK ban

Ofcom, the UK's online safety regulator, set out how apps should check users are over 16. [8] The UK's ban on under-16s using social media is due to start in March next year. [8] It will keep under-16s off 10 of the biggest platforms, including Instagram, TikTok and Snapchat. [8] Many 16 and 17 year olds have no credit card, full driving licence or passport. [8] So Ofcom recommends 4 methods it calls highly effective, alongside ordinary ID. [8] Ofcom admits some children will still get round the checks. [8]

Why it matters — Many adults will also have to prove their age to keep using these apps. [8] The UK government will decide on Ofcom's methods by the end of the year. [8]
03
An extra school year cut dementia

Staying one more year at school lowered dementia decades later, a new study finds. [9] A 1972 law in England, Wales and Scotland raised the school-leaving age from 15 to 16. [10] It applied only to children born after 1 September 1957. [10] So children born just before and just after that date can be fairly compared. [10] Researchers from Wisconsin and Southern California studied over 100,000 people in the UK Biobank. [9] The UK Biobank is a large health study that follows volunteers. [9] The extra year cut dementia by about 0.88 percentage points, most for people with risky genes. [10]

Why it matters — The team says it can trust the direction of the effect, not its exact size. [10] Diagnoses were counted only up to age 65, so the gap may grow or shrink. [9]
04
US children's intensive care units close

Hospitals in Montana, Oregon and Missouri closed intensive care units for children this past year. [11] US hospitals with children's overnight wings fell from 1,749 to 1,226 between 2008 and 2022. [11] Hospitals cite too few patients, because few children ever need intensive care. [11] Children's specialists also earn less, and hospitals are often paid less to treat children. [11] In Missoula, Montana, the unit that closed this month saw about 2 such children a month. [11]

Why it matters — The sickest children there will now be stabilised and sent on to other hospitals. [11] The next children's intensive care unit in Montana is about 150 miles north. [11] Researchers warn US cuts to Medicaid, health cover for poorer families, will widen the gaps. [11]
05
Family carers' costs rise 60% in five years

US family carers now spend $11,508 a year of their own money, a survey found. [12] AARP, a big US group for older people, surveyed 2,538 family carers. [12] That spending is about 60% higher than five years ago. [12] Prices overall rose 24% in that time, so carers' costs rose more than twice as fast. [12] On average, the spending takes 31% of a carer's income. [12] Food, housing and medical bills make up the biggest part. [12]

Why it matters — Many carers cut their hours or quit work, so they lose pay as costs rise. [12] Medicare, the US health plan for over-65s, does not pay for routine help at home. [12]
06
Urgent care asked for $400 before a shot

A wasp sting in Virginia sent Stephanie Rowell into anaphylaxis, a severe allergic reaction. [13] She had no health insurance, and the urgent care clinic asked for $400 before the shot. [13] The shot was epinephrine, the drug in an EpiPen, which reverses the reaction. [13] Her bill was $400 for the drug, $40 to give it and $165 for the visit. [13] That came to $605 in all. [13] TruHealthNow, which owns the clinic, says asking for payment did not delay the shot. [13]

Why it matters — US law makes hospital emergency rooms stabilise anyone, but most urgent care centres are exempt. [13] US urgent care centres handled about 185 million visits in 2025. [13]
07
US eases a wall around organ donation

From 18 November, US donation teams may talk to families earlier about giving organs. [14] Until now, they could speak only after a family chose to end life support. [14] The network that runs US transplants voted for the change on 20 August. [14] It covers donation after the heart stops, now about half of all US organ donations. [14] Officials say it will prevent mistakes, including patients taken to surgery while still alive. [14] Lainie Ross, a bioethicist, fears families will feel pressured and manipulated. [14]

Why it matters — More than 109,000 Americans are waiting for an organ, and about 12 die each day. [14] So families deciding about life support may now meet the donation team sooner. [14]
08
Investors buy methadone clinics, access stalls

Private investment firms now own more than a third of US methadone clinics. [15] Methadone treats opioid addiction and cuts the risk of a fatal overdose by about half. [15] Only 22% of people with opioid addiction ever receive it. [15] A Brown University economist found the buyers did not open more clinics. [15] Only licensed clinics may give methadone, and many make patients come in every day. [15] In rural areas the average one-way drive is close to 50 minutes. [15]

Why it matters — US Senator Maggie Hassan is investigating 3 of the biggest clinic owners. [15] More than 120 people a day died of opioid overdoses in the US in 2025. [15]
09
Belfast's needle exchange shuts

Belfast's city-centre needle exchange will close on 2 November after losing its building. [16] The charity Extern runs it, giving people who inject drugs clean needles and health help. [16] Almost 20,000 used needles were handed back there last year. [16] Extern's outreach team also picked up more than 13,000 needles from the streets. [16] That street count is about 20% higher than in earlier years. [16] The building is being redeveloped, and a year-long search found no new site. [16]

Why it matters — Extern says 1,000 to 1,500 people in the city struggle with drug use at any time. [16] A much smaller street service will replace it until a new site is found. [16]
10
A youth crisis scheme loses its weekends

A Northern Ireland health trust has cut a crisis scheme for young people to weekdays. [17] The scheme gives a young person in crisis at hospital a written appointment before they leave. [17] The Western trust, in the north west, says the cut began in August to save money. [17] It applies only to young people judged low risk who come in out of hours. [17] Northern Ireland's health trusts must find savings of up to 12% over three years. [17]

Why it matters — A Londonderry GP, Joe McEvoy, says distress in young people peaks at weekends. [17] So a young person in crisis on a Friday evening may now wait until Monday. [17]
11
One IQ score shuts out an autistic teen

Callan Lanigan, 18, has autism and ADHD and lives in County Londonderry, Northern Ireland. [18] A test after his 18th birthday put his IQ above 70. [18] In Northern Ireland, that score bars him from adult learning disability services. [18] As a child he had been assessed as having special educational needs. [18] In England, a care plan can run until a young person turns 25. [18]

Why it matters — His mother says the help they had was taken away because of one test. [18] The Northern Trust says it must fund care through set mental health and disability programmes. [18]
12
England keeps its NHS patient watchdog

England's health secretary Yvette Cooper dropped a plan to abolish Healthwatch England, the NHS patient champion. [19] Healthwatch and its 150 local branches collect what patients say about NHS care. [19] Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs and peers had opposed scrapping it. [19] It has reported on dental access and years-long waits for ADHD assessments. [19] It is one of several U-turns on the health bill since Andy Burnham became prime minister. [19]

Why it matters — Ministers had planned to move its work into local NHS boards and councils. [19] Councils had warned that NHS bodies would then be marking their own homework. [19]
13
A Canterbury care home in special measures

England's care regulator put Saxon Lodge, a Canterbury care home, into special measures. [20] Asked when she could go home, a resident was told she would leave 'when she died'. [20] Inspectors found medicines were not managed safely. [20] One resident who needed pureed food was given lumpy puree, risking choking. [20] Relatives were sometimes called in at night because staff could not calm people. [20] Inspectors visited in July, when 21 people lived there. [20]

Why it matters — The regulator has begun action against the home, which it can appeal. [20]
14
Wildfire smoke in pregnancy linked to autism

A US study linked wildfire smoke in pregnancy to a higher chance of autism in children. [21] It followed about 900,000 mothers and children for an average of 6.3 years. [21] Each rise of 0.75 micrograms per cubic metre of smoke particles came with 30% higher risk. [21] The link was strongest in the second and third trimesters, the last six months of pregnancy. [21] Lead author Stefania Papatheodorou works at the Rutgers School of Public Health. [21]

Why it matters — The study only observed people, so it cannot show the smoke caused autism. [21] Wildfire smoke can travel far, even when it cannot be seen, she said. [21]
15
Lahore tops the world's dirty-air list

Lahore, in Pakistan's Punjab province, was ranked the world's most polluted major city on Thursday. [22] Lahore's air quality score read 419, against 274 in Cairo and 220 in Delhi. [22] By 1pm Lahore's score had fallen to 183, fifth on the list. [22] Punjab's environment agency demolished 197 brick kilns that broke the rules in a month. [22] It also seized 45,100 kilograms of plastic to stop it being burned. [22]

Why it matters — The peak smog season has not yet arrived, the paper Dawn reports. [22] Smoky vehicles, kilns, factories, burning plastic and building dust are all being targeted. [22]
16
'Ferritin face' checked against the evidence

TikTok influencers say pale skin, dark circles and hair loss reveal 'ferritin face'. [23] Ferritin is the protein that stores iron in the body, especially in the liver. [23] Those looks can also come from genes, stress or not drinking enough. [23] Sue Pavord, an Oxford blood specialist, says iron deficiency cannot be diagnosed from the face. [23] Periods and pregnancies are the most common causes of low iron, she says. [23]

Why it matters — Toby Richards, of the Iron Clinic, says low iron is a proper disease. [23] He calls it the leading cause of disability in women of childbearing age. [23] Both say a blood test, not a face, shows whether iron stores are low. [23]
17
Bottom shape says nothing about hormones

Social media posts claim a heart-shaped bottom means healthy oestrogen. [24] They claim an H-shaped bottom means too much cortisol, a stress hormone. [24] Adam Taylor, writing in The Conversation, says bottom shape comes mostly from genes. [24] Genes set the bones, the muscles and where the body stores fat. [24] Falling oestrogen does move fat towards the belly after menopause, but slowly, over years. [24]

Why it matters — Only a blood test can measure oestrogen or cortisol levels, he writes. [24] Some operations to reshape the buttocks carry among the highest death risks in cosmetic surgery. [24]
18
Chest pain from exercise is often the ribs

Costochondritis is irritation where the ribs join the breastbone, and it causes chest pain. [25] It is thought to cause about 13% of GP visits for chest pain. [25] The pain is sharp and gets worse with twisting, coughing or a deep breath. [25] No blood test or scan can confirm it, so doctors rely on symptoms and an examination. [25] Heart tests may still be needed to rule out danger, especially in people over 35. [25] It often follows a sudden jump in weights, rowing or a long cough. [25]

Why it matters — Most people recover fully within a year, a GP writes. [25]
19
Stiff gut tissue keeps IBD pain going

People with inflammatory bowel disease can hurt even when their inflammation is under control. [26] A team in Shanghai found stiffened gut tissue can keep pain signals firing. [26] Immune cells in the gut wall sense the stiffness through a protein called Piezo1. [26] They then release nerve growth factor, which makes nearby pain nerves oversensitive. [26] In mice, blocking this chain stopped the extra pain. [26]

Why it matters — A colonoscopy, a camera check of the gut, can look normal while patients still hurt. [26] The work was published on 23 October in Science Immunology and is not yet a treatment. [26]
20
Ovaries take on their new body's age

Ovaries moved between mice took on the age of the body they entered, Harvard researchers found. [27] Old ovaries put into young mice became younger at the level of their genes. [27] Young mice with older ovaries still gave birth to healthy pups. [27] The young mice were about 4 months old, and the older ones about 13 months. [27] Older ovaries moved into other older mice produced no births. [27] Young ovaries also made old mice's brains, livers and wombs biologically younger. [27]

Why it matters — The team hopes to copy the young body's signals to keep ovaries working longer. [27] This was in mice, and a Northwestern scientist says the effect can only stretch so far. [27]
21
Data centre health fears enter US elections

Health fears about AI data centres are shaping US midterm races in Arizona, Ohio and Texas. [28] In Page, Arizona, residents oppose a proposed $10 billion data centre. [28] Backup gas generators at data centres pollute the air, environmental studies say. [28] Modelling led by the University of California, Riverside estimates nearly 1,300 deaths a year by 2030. [28] Generators and cooling systems can pass 90 decibels, loud enough to harm hearing. [28]

Why it matters — The industry's Data Center Coalition says a Virginia review found little use of backup power. [28] Research on the health effects is only starting, one public health group says. [28]
22
Missouri votes on youth gender care

Missouri voters will decide in the midterms on banning gender-transition care for minors. [29] The same measure would also bring back a near-total ban on abortion. [29] A poll has 43% for the bans, 44% against and 13% undecided. [29] PROMO Missouri, an LGBTQ+ group, aims to knock on 100,000 doors before the vote. [29] About 1 in 10 knocks turns into a conversation, the group says. [29]

Why it matters — Missouri's lawmakers blocked surgery for minors in 2023 and new hormone prescriptions for four years. [29] Colorado also votes on a ban for minors, and 4 states on trans athletes. [29]
23
Who issues a fact-check changes trust

A study of 53 people tested how fact-check labels on health headlines change trust. [30] A 'Truth' label raised trust only when it came from a credible medical source. [30] A 'Fake' label lowered trust whatever the source. [30] Brain recordings showed credible sources drew a stronger early response. [30]

Why it matters — The study appeared this week in Scientific Reports, a journal from the Nature group. [30] With 53 people, it is a small study. [30]
24
Short bursts of squats built strength

Short bursts of squats, 3 times a week, built about as much strength as one session. [31] Researchers at Tongji University in China tested 45 male students aged 18 to 25. [31] All of them already lifted weights, and the trial ran for 8 weeks. [31] One group did 3 one-minute bursts of 20 squats; the other did 60 in one go. [31] Strength and endurance rose in both groups, with no clear difference between them. [31] The men doing short bursts said they enjoyed the training more. [31]

Why it matters — The trial was small, and its authors say it needs repeating in larger groups. [31] Short bursts may suit people who cannot find time for one long workout. [31]
25
A centre planned for people who stutter

Farah Al Qaissieh, an Emirati who stutters, plans a support centre in Abu Dhabi. [32] Abu Dhabi is the capital of the United Arab Emirates. [32] It would bring speech therapists and psychologists together for people who stutter and their families. [32] About 1% of the world's people stutter, the paper The National reports. [32] Between 5% and 10% of children stutter for a time, and many outgrow it. [32] No drug has been approved in the US specifically for stuttering. [32] Her group, the Stutter Community, now has about 33 regular members. [32]

Why it matters — She has not yet found a building or money for the centre. [32] People who stutter can be left out of oral exams, job interviews and meetings, she says. [32]

02 Lesson why it matters

How scientists counted a brain disease in brains they never saw

Only the brains families chose to give could be checked, so the team used records of every player to learn who gave, and weighed each brain by that.

The twist

You cannot fix a lopsided sample by checking more of it. You fix it by finding a record of everyone, learning who came forward, and weighing each case by that.

The picture

1August floor24.5%
2New estimate74.5%
3Donated brains93.5%
4August ceiling97.7%
52017 count99%

Five counts of the same disease, all from the briefing above. The donated brains sit high; counting every unexamined brain as healthy sits low. The weighed estimate falls between.

How it works

Only the brains families give can be checked, about 400 of 2,362
Families give more often after seeing symptoms, about 5 times more often
Records exist for every player, whether the brain was given or not
Those records show which kinds of player were over-given
Each checked brain is counted down when its kind was over-given
The count for all players lands at 74.5%, between the floor and the ceiling

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

An extra school year cut dementia

The team also took diagnoses from hospital records and death registers, so people never diagnosed while alive were still counted.

Where you've seen this

Election polls

People who answer pollsters are weighed against census figures, so groups that rarely answer still count.

TV ratings

A few thousand homes stand for a country, each weighed to match the households like it.

Hospital surveys

Unhappy patients reply more often, so replies are weighed against the full list of patients treated.

The catch

The weighing can only correct for what the records show. If families gave brains for a reason no record holds, the estimate still carries that tilt.

And the whole of it

About 400 families chose to give a brain, and about 2,000 did not. Each family saw one player; the 74.5% exists only when their records are laid side by side.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

A Boston University team says about 3 in 4 former NFL players who died from 2008 to 2023 had CTE, but only about 400 of 2,362 brains were ever examined, so the 74.5% is a model built on which families chose to give. [1][3] Elsewhere today, help for people already struggling was cut back: children's intensive care in Montana, weekend crisis appointments for young people in Northern Ireland, and Belfast's needle exchange. [11][17][16]

Why it works on us — One round figure about famous players reads like a fact about anyone who took hits to the head. It is an estimate about men who have already died. [1]

Who gains

Families of former NFL players with symptoms — A count that weighs for who gave brains gives them a firmer number than the 99% that critics could dismiss as skewed. [3]
Private investment firms that own methadone clinics — Only licensed clinics may give methadone, so owning the clinics in a region means owning the only way in for patients. [15]
Hospital owners that close children's units — Converting beds for children into beds for adults or newborns cuts costs where children are few and pay less. [11]
People on US transplant waiting lists — Donation teams may speak to families sooner from 18 November, which officials say gives teams time to honour a donor's wish. [14]

Who pays

Critically ill children in rural Montana — With Missoula's unit closed, the sickest will be stabilised and sent on, and the next unit in the state is about 150 miles north. [11]
Young people in crisis in western Northern Ireland — Those judged low risk out of hours now wait for the next working day, so a Friday evening visit can mean waiting until Monday. [17]
People who inject drugs in Belfast — The needle exchange shuts on 2 November and is replaced by a much smaller street service. [16]
US family carers — They spend $11,508 a year of their own money, 31% of their income on average, and many cut their working hours. [12]
Uninsured people who go to urgent care in an emergency — Most urgent care centres are not bound by the law that makes hospital emergency rooms stabilise anyone. [13]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

How many players alive today will develop CTE.

No test confirms CTE in a living person, and the estimate covers only players who died from 2008 to 2023. [1]
02

How much of the brain damage and dementia comes from football itself.

The study had no comparison group of men who never played contact sport, an outside surgeon says. [1]
03

Whether the weighing caught every reason families gave a brain.

The correction uses what medical and death records show; a reason no record holds would still tilt the count. [1]
04

How many of the 74.5% would ever have had symptoms.

The figure includes early brain changes that may never cause symptoms, and only about 27% had dementia. [1][2]
05

How many children are harmed by longer trips to intensive care.

Hospitals cite low numbers of patients, but no count of outcomes after transfer is given for Missoula or the other closures. [11]
06

Whether wildfire smoke in pregnancy causes autism.

The study of about 900,000 mothers and children only observed people, so it shows a link and not a cause. [21]
07

Whether asking for payment slowed Stephanie Rowell's treatment.

She says she was asked for $400 before the shot; the clinic's owners say the request did not delay it. [13]
08

How much an extra year at school really cuts dementia.

The authors say they trust the direction of the effect but not its size, and diagnoses were counted only up to age 65. [10][9]
09

How many UK children will get round the age checks.

Ofcom admits some will, and has no firm number for how many adults will have to prove their age. [8]

04 Hope carry this

An extra year at school, forced on children in England, Wales and Scotland by a 1972 law, left fewer of them with dementia decades later. The drop was largest among people whose genes put them at high risk.

Also true today

England kept Healthwatch, its independent NHS patient watchdog, and its 150 local branches after MPs from every main party objected to scrapping it.
In mice with inflamed guts, blocking one chain of signals stopped the pain that lingered after the inflammation had calmed.