Personal Money · Monday, 14 September 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket sell sports bets as financial contracts. Twenty US states are in court to call them gambling.
Prediction markets register each bet with a federal markets agency, which lets them skip state gambling licences, taxes and age limits, and the Trump administration is suing states on their side. Elsewhere, US mortgage rates passed 7% and a record 7.4 million low-income UK families went without essentials.
20 of 50
US states in court over whether gambling law covers prediction markets
44 states signed a July letter calling the platforms a new form of casino
85%
of trading on Kalshi is tied to a sporting event
the apps reach people in states where sports betting is banned
2.9 to 1
losing Kalshi users for every winning one, in April
on Polymarket, seven in ten traders record losses
18
the age at which anyone can trade on a prediction market
some US states set the gambling age at 21
The lead story — what happened
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Kalshi and Polymarket are apps where people put money on whether something will happen, from a football result to a word the US president might say.
[8] [14] -
The companies say this is not gambling. They list each bet as an event contract, a kind of financial contract that US law calls a swap.
[2] [6] -
That puts them under the CFTC, the US federal agency that oversees futures and similar contracts, instead of state gambling regulators.
[7] [4] -
So people can bet on sports in states where sports betting is still illegal. Traditional sports betting is legal in 39 states and Washington DC.
[10] [3] -
The platforms also skip state and tribal licences and gambling taxes. Anyone aged 18 can trade, while some states set the gambling age at 21.
[6] -
Most users lose. Kalshi told The Wall Street Journal it had 2.9 losing users for every winning one in April.
[7] -
A Wall Street Journal analysis found 0.1% of Polymarket accounts took 67% of the profits. The winners are often firms that pay for live data feeds, servers and AI bots.
[8] -
One Detroit man turned about $2,000 into $41,000 on Kalshi. He then lost all of it on one bet that a celebrity would say a word on TV.
[9] -
Twenty states are in court over whether their gambling laws apply. In July, 44 states signed a letter calling the platforms a new form of casino.
[1] -
The Trump administration backs the platforms. Its CFTC sued Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona in April, and then Minnesota, the first state to ban prediction markets.
[2] [3] -
The courts disagree. A US appeals court ruled 2 to 1 in April that New Jersey cannot stop Kalshi's sports contracts. A Nevada judge found the same contracts indistinguishable from state-regulated sports betting.
[4] [3] -
A Brookings paper says the contracts also go around the deals that US tribal governments signed to run casinos, which pay for their public services.
[13]
Who is involved
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Kalshi
a US prediction market valued at $22bn; it says it earns a small fee on each trade and has no reason to want users to lose
[8] [7] -
Polymarket
a rival prediction market valued at $9bn; it now has an app for US users aged 18 and over
[8] [7] -
The CFTC and its chair, Michael Selig
the US federal agency for futures and swaps; it says only it may regulate the platforms, and it is suing states
[2] -
State governments
20 are in court; Spencer Cox, Utah's governor, calls prediction markets gambling, pure and simple
[1] [11] -
Donald Trump Jr.
the US president's eldest son; an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket
[2] [5]
How it unfolded
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2018 A US Supreme Court decision leaves each state to decide whether to legalise sports betting
[10] -
23 Mar 2026 Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis propose banning sports contracts on prediction markets
[15] [12] -
2 Apr 2026 The CFTC sues Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona to stop them regulating the platforms
[2] -
6 Apr 2026 A US appeals court rules 2 to 1 that New Jersey cannot block Kalshi's sports contracts
[4] -
May 2026 Minnesota passes the first state ban on prediction markets, keeping contracts on weather legal, and the CFTC sues
[3] -
Aug 2026 Twenty states are in court over whether gambling law covers the platforms
[1]
Where this points
The next test is whether the split between the courts reaches the US Supreme Court, which a Georgia State University professor who studies financial rules expects some of these cases to do.
What is pushing on the whole day
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.
A 30-year fixed US mortgage reached 7.07% on 10 September.
The Wall Street Journal links the US mortgage rise to the war in the Middle East and high energy prices.
About 4.5 million low-income UK families are behind on a bill or a debt repayment.
Prediction markets skip state gambling licences and taxes.
The rest of the day
14 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
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02
US mortgage rates pass 7%
The average rate on a 30-year fixed US mortgage reached 7.07% on 10 September, the highest since May 2025, according to Mortgage News Daily.
[17] Freddie Mac, a US government-backed mortgage company, put that week's average lower, at 6.76%.[17] The Wall Street Journal links the rise to the Middle East war and high energy prices.[17] The US central bank held its rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, and many experts expect a quarter-point rise at its next meeting, the first since July 2023.[18] [17] Why it matters — On a $350,000 loan, the gap between a 5.98% rate and a 6.63% rate is more than $53,000 of interest over 30 years.
[17] A rise reaches people buying or refinancing now. People already on a fixed rate keep theirs. -
03
UK inflation back up to 2.9%
UK inflation rose to 2.9% in the year to July, up from 2.6% the month before, which the national statistics office put down to energy costs.
[18] The Bank of England, the UK's central bank, has held its main rate at 3.75% at each of its five decisions so far in 2026.[18] The average new two-year fixed mortgage cost 5.62% on 30 July, up from 4.83% at the start of March, Moneyfacts says.[18] The Bank of England expects about 1.3 million UK homeowners to face higher payments by the end of 2028 because of the war.[19] Why it matters — About 87% of UK mortgage holders are on fixed deals, so a higher rate reaches them when their deal ends.
[18] About 800,000 fixed deals at 3% or less are expected to end every year until the end of 2027.[18] -
04
7.4 million UK families go without
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a UK anti-poverty charity, has surveyed low-income families since 2021.
[23] Its summer 2026 survey found 62% could not afford at least one essential in the last six months, about 7.4 million families and the most it has recorded.[23] About 4.5 million are behind on at least one bill or debt repayment.[23] About 1.3 million used loan sharks, payday lenders, doorstep lenders or pawnbrokers to pay for essentials in May, a number that is rising again.[23] Why it matters — The number going without has grown fastest among groups that used to be less likely to: people who own their home outright, childless households and people over 65.
[23] One number fell: families unable to keep their home warm dropped by more than half a million in two years, to 2.4 million in May.[23] -
05
UK energy bills rise again in October
Energy prices for millions of UK households will rise by nearly 4% in October.
[24] Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy, forecasts a further 9% rise in January.[24] Suppliers estimate unpaid energy bills and charges at about 6bn pounds, and expect 7bn pounds by the end of the year.[24] Andy Burnham, the new UK prime minister, announced that VAT will come off household electricity bills for a time from 1 October.[23] The price of gas has risen 8%, more than the electricity saving.[24] Why it matters — Customers who pay every three months instead of by monthly direct debit already pay about 150 pounds a year towards other people's energy debts.
[24] The Joseph Rowntree Foundation says the VAT cut gives its largest cash savings to higher-income households.[23] -
06
13% of US card accounts fall far behind
The Bank of England looked at US household debt in its July report on risks to the financial system.
[29] About 13% of US credit card accounts were more than 90 days behind in the first three months of 2026, a share that has risen quickly.[29] The share still behind but not yet written off by lenders was about 4% at the end of 2025, near its long-run average.[29] The US central bank said in May that card and car loan delinquencies stay high compared with the past decade.[31] Why it matters — The Wall Street Journal describes a hospital manager earning $194,000 whose $572 minimum payment barely touched a $15,000 balance at 26% interest.
[30] Most US household debt is still owed by borrowers with strong credit scores, the US central bank says.[31] -
07
Three million US cars repossessed
Companies that track repossessions estimate that lenders took back more than 3 million US cars in 2025, NPR's Planet Money reports.
[27] That is about as many as during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009.[27] Last autumn, 6.6% of subprime borrowers, people with weak credit scores, were at least two months behind on car payments.[27] Federal Reserve economists found 3.88% of US car loan balances at least 30 days late in the third quarter of 2025, the highest in 15 years.[28] Why it matters — Record car prices and rising costs for repairs and insurance have stacked up on car owners.
[36] In most US states a lender does not have to warn a borrower before it takes the car.[36] -
08
Car lots that lend the money grow fast
Buy Here Pay Here dealers sell used cars and lend buyers the money themselves, often to people with poor credit or no credit history.
[25] A US Federal Reserve study published in May found their loan balances grew 214% since 2018, against 34% for other car lending.[25] They charge higher rates, often set weekly payments and repossess cars more often than other lenders.[25] The study found more than $2 billion in loan commitments to these dealers from the largest US banks.[25] Why it matters — Borrowers with credit scores below 600 pay an average rate of about 20% a year on a car loan, Experian data shows.
[26] Weekly payments give a borrower more chances to miss one.[25] -
09
Legal sports betting and missed payments
A New York Federal Reserve report found that in US states where sports betting is legal, missed payments on credit cards and car loans rose about 0.3% overall.
[16] Among people who started betting after their state legalised it, serious delinquencies rose by more than 10%.[16] A separate 2025 study found a 10% rise in the likelihood of bankruptcy in states that allowed betting online.[16] Bettors more than doubled their spending, from under $500 a quarter in December 2019 to over $1,000 by June 2021.[16] Why it matters — Christopher Welsh, research director at a Maryland centre on problem gambling, says the calls it gets are now almost all about online sports betting.
[16] Prediction markets now offer the same kind of sports bet in states where betting is still banned.[3] -
10
Betting apps ban insider trades
Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets, added new trading bans on 23 March.
[15] Kalshi barred political candidates from trading on their own races, and athletes from trading on their own sports.[15] Polymarket said users may not trade where they hold confidential information or can change the result.[15] Polymarket had been criticised after some users made large, well-timed bets before US military action in Iran and Venezuela.[15] [8] Why it matters — The bans came the day two US senators proposed a bill to stop sports contracts on these platforms, and shares in the sportsbook DraftKings rose.
[15] [12] The bans are rules the companies wrote themselves.[15] -
11
Australia's 5% deposit loans go to higher earners
Australia's government guarantees home loans for first-time buyers who have saved only 5% of the price, so they avoid paying for lenders' mortgage insurance.
[21] After Labor removed the income caps on 1 October, the scheme backed 39,704 loans by 30 April.[21] Of those, 13,979 went to buyers earning more than the old caps of A$125,000 for a single person or A$200,000 for a couple.[21] All first-time buyers together took out about 10,181 loans a month from October to March, less than 3% more than in the six months before.[21] Why it matters — Economist Saul Eslake says the scheme mostly helped people who would have bought anyway, and let them borrow more.
[21] Prices of homes under the scheme's price caps rose much faster once it was expanded, property data firm Cotality found.[21] -
12
Australian home prices turn down
Australia's housing market has entered a downturn after the Reserve Bank, Australia's central bank, raised rates three times in a row.
[22] The average new home loan rate is now above 6% a year.[22] First-home loan applications fell 13.4% in May from a year earlier, credit agency Equifax reported.[22] The May federal budget stopped investors who buy existing homes from deducting rental losses from their other income. Investor loans fell by a fifth from the budget to mid-June, the bank Westpac said.[22] Why it matters — Prices for the most expensive quarter of Sydney homes fell by about A$90,000 in three months.
[22] A Brisbane buyers' agent says first-time buyers back off when prices fall.[22] -
13
Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada, the country's central bank, kept its main rate at 2.25% on 2 September, its seventh hold in a row.
[20] Variable mortgage rates in Canada have stayed around 3.4% as a result.[20] Full-time employment rose by about 193,000 from April to July, and inflation without petrol held at 2.2% for three months.[20] The Trump administration announced 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods on 22 August, due to start on 1 January 2027.[20] Why it matters — NerdWallet Canada says the tariffs put auto jobs in Ontario and factory jobs in Quebec at risk.
[20] Those are the two provinces where home sales have held up best this year.[20] -
14
Young adults take money advice from social media
A 2025 Gallup poll found 42% of Americans aged 18 to 29 look for money advice on social media, nearly double the share of those aged 30 to 49.
[32] Many of these finfluencers, people who post money tips online, have no financial qualifications.[32] Some are paid by credit card and fintech companies, and the sponsorship is not always easy to spot.[32] FINRA, which oversees US brokerage firms, found social media users rate their investing knowledge higher but score worse on a test.[33] Why it matters — Fidelity credits these influencers in part for a 73% rise in Gen Z contributions to Roth IRAs, a US retirement account, in the second quarter of 2026.
[33] One stock picker told the Wall Street Journal he uses rage-bait lines to get views.[37] -
15
401(k) plans opened to private assets
A 401(k) is a US workplace retirement account.
[34] In August 2025 President Trump ordered the US Labor Department to look again at letting these plans offer funds with private equity, private credit or crypto.[34] In March 2026 the department proposed a rule listing six things a plan manager should weigh: performance, fees, how easily it sells, valuation, benchmarks and complexity.[34] A manager who follows that process would be presumed prudent, which protects them from lawsuits.[34] [35] Why it matters — Private assets are hard to sell quickly, hard to price and disclose less than listed shares, Brookings notes.
[34] The rule protects the employer that picks the funds. The savings at risk belong to the workers.[34]
A bet filed as a financial contract answers to different rules
Sold as a financial contract, a sports bet answers to a federal markets agency, so state limits on gambling age and taxes stop applying.
The twist
A bet on a football match with a sportsbook and the same bet on Kalshi can come with different age limits, taxes and addiction warnings. The only difference is the legal category each company says it is in.
How it works
- Every money product falls into a legal category, such as a bet, a loan, a bank account or an investment
- Each category has its own regulator and its own protections for customers
- A seller can shape a product so it fits the category with the lightest rules
- Customers then get the protections of that category, not of what the product does to them
- Regulators and courts fight over which category the product really belongs in
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
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Young adults taking money advice from social media
Tips posted as social media content are less regulated than advice from the financial industry, so a follower gets less protection than the customer of a licensed firm.
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Car lots that lend the money
Car loans face far less checking than other kinds of lending, so a buyer with a score under 600 can pay about 20% a year at a lot that lends its own money.
Where you've seen this
Delivery and ride apps
a driver classed as self-employed rather than as an employee may get no minimum wage or sick pay
Vitamin pills
sold as a food supplement rather than a medicine, a product can skip the trials a drug must pass
Electric bikes and scooters
a top speed or motor size decides whether the rider needs a licence and insurance
The catch
Categories also exist for good reasons. A farmer's contract that pays out if a harvest is ruined by weather works like insurance, which is why Minnesota's ban kept weather contracts legal.
And the whole of it
A person betting from a phone, a state attorney general, a federal agency and a tribal casino are all inside the same fight over one definition. Each of them sees what the answer would cost or earn them. No final court has yet said which rules apply.
What is really going on
Kalshi and Polymarket list sports bets as financial contracts under the CFTC, a US federal agency, so they can take bets even in states where sports betting is banned.
Why it works on us — The apps look like trading screens and call a bet a trade, so a user can tell their family, or themselves, that it is like buying shares.
Who gains
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Kalshi and Polymarket
— Listed as swaps under the CFTC, they pay none of the state gaming taxes that DraftKings and FanDuel pay, states say.
[2] -
Well-equipped trading firms on Polymarket
— Paying for live data feeds, servers and AI bots, 0.1% of accounts took 67% of the profits.
[8] -
Large US banks that lend to Buy Here Pay Here dealers
— The Fed study says the dealers' frequent repossessions help protect the banks' loans, and the banks rated more than $2 billion of commitments to them as lower risk than loans to ordinary dealers.
[25] -
Employers that run 401(k) plans
— Under the proposed Labor Department rule, following six listed checks would make their fund choices presumed prudent.
[34] [35] -
Higher-earning first-time buyers in Australia
— Once the income caps went, 13,979 government-backed 5% deposit loans went to buyers above the old limits.
[21] -
UK savers willing to lock money away
— Higher rates mean one-year fixed savings paid an average of 4.27% at the end of July.
[18]
Who pays
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US tribal governments
— Their casinos fund public services, and sports event contracts go around the gaming deals they signed with states.
[13] -
Buyers with credit scores below 600
— They pay about 20% a year on a car loan.
[26] -
UK homeowners coming off cheap fixed deals
— About 800,000 deals at 3% or less end every year until the end of 2027, when the average new two-year fixed deal cost 5.62% in late July.
[18] -
Low-income UK families
— 7.4 million could not afford at least one essential, and 1.3 million turned to loan sharks, payday or doorstep lenders.
[23] -
UK energy customers who pay quarterly
— They pay about 150 pounds a year towards other people's unpaid energy bills.
[24] -
Workers saving in 401(k) plans
— Private assets that may enter their plans are hard to sell and hard to price, and the savings are theirs.
[34]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
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01
Whether federal or state law will decide who may run these bets.
A US appeals court sided with Kalshi 2 to 1 in April, a Nevada judge found its contracts indistinguishable from sports betting, and a Georgia State University professor expects some cases to reach the Supreme Court.
[4] [3] [2] -
02
How much ordinary users have lost in total.
We found no total published by either platform. The figures in circulation are a Wall Street Journal analysis and a ratio Kalshi gave that newspaper for one month.
[7] [8] -
03
What a 30-year US mortgage actually costs this week.
Mortgage News Daily put it at 7.07% on 10 September, while Freddie Mac's weekly survey put that week at 6.76%. We report both.
[17] -
04
Whether the US central bank raises its rate at its next meeting.
Many experts expect a quarter-point rise, but the bank held its rate in July and the next decision has not been made.
[17] [18] -
05
How far UK mortgage payments rise when fixed deals end.
The Bank of England calls the rises modest compared with recent years, but that depends on how long the war keeps energy prices high.
[19] -
06
Whether the UK VAT cut on electricity leaves households better off this winter.
It starts on 1 October while gas has risen 8%, and Cornwall Insight's 9% rise for January is still a forecast.
[24] [23] -
07
Whether Australia's 5% deposit scheme pushed up prices.
Economists say it did and Cotality's data shows eligible homes rising faster, but first-home loans rose less than 3%, so the scheme's own effect is not separated out.
[21] -
08
How big Buy Here Pay Here lending really is.
The Federal Reserve's sample puts these dealers at about 2% of US car loans, while other data sources it cites put them at about 6%.
[25] -
09
How many US card accounts will end as losses.
About 13% of accounts were 90 days behind in early 2026, while about 4% were behind and not yet written off, which the Bank of England calls the better guide to future losses.
[29]
The number of low-income UK families who could not afford to keep their home warm fell to 2.4 million in May 2026, more than half a million fewer than two years earlier.
Also true today
- Gen Z contributions to Roth IRAs, a US retirement account, rose 73% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with a year before.
- Full-time employment in Canada rose by about 193,000 from April to July.
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