Personal Money · Saturday, 19 September 2026

01 Briefing what happened

The typical US household earned a record $87,460 in 2025. The official poverty rate fell, and a fuller measure did not move.

Personal Money 24 sources

The Census Bureau's yearly report shows the middle household's income up 2.6% after rising prices, and 1.5 million fewer people under the official poverty line. A second measure, which adds food aid and subtracts medical bills, stayed at 13.1%, and older Americans did worse on it.

$87,460

income of the middle US household in 2025, the highest since 1967

up 2.6% after allowing for rising prices [3][5]

10.2% vs 13.1%

of Americans in poverty on the official measure, and on the fuller one that adds benefits and subtracts medical bills

34.5 million people are below the official line, down from 36 million [2]

7.7 million

Americans pushed below the poverty line by medical bills in 2025

more than twice the 3.1 million that food aid lifted out [1]

15.4%

of Americans aged 65 and over below the line once medical bills and benefits are included

up for a second year in a row, from 14.0% in 2023 [6]

The lead story — what happened

The US Census Bureau released its yearly report on income and poverty on Tuesday 15 September, covering 2025. [1][2]
The median household, the one exactly in the middle when all households are ranked from poorest to richest, had an income of $87,460. [1][3]
After allowing for rising prices, that is 2.6% more than in 2024. [3] It is the highest since the records began in 1967. [5]
The gains were uneven. Families in the top tenth by income gained 1.7%, while the bottom tenth saw little change. [2]
The Wall Street Journal says the record was driven by households with higher incomes. [4]
Black families had the biggest rise, 4.8%. Their median income of $59,980 is still far below that of white families, $91,930, and Asian families, $126,300. [2]
More people moved into full-time work: 1.3 million more men and 800,000 more women. [3]
Median pay for men working full time fell by $690. For women working full time it rose by $1,900. [3]
The official poverty rate fell to 10.2% from 10.7%. That is 34.5 million people below the line, down from 36 million. [2]
A second, fuller measure adds benefits such as food aid and takes off taxes and medical bills. It put poverty at 13.1%, about the same as in 2024. [1][2]
Tax credits for working families and children kept 6.1 million people out of poverty in 2025. Food aid, called SNAP, lifted 3.1 million out. [1]
On the fuller measure, medical bills pushed 7.7 million people into poverty. [1]
On that fuller measure, poverty among Americans aged 65 and over rose to 15.4%, from 15.1% in 2024 and 14.0% in 2023. [6]
The National Council on Aging says the average Social Security payment is a little over $2,000 a month. Many older people get much less and have no other income. [6]
The report looks back at 2025, before most of the cuts to Medicaid, the health cover for people on low incomes, and to food aid took effect. [1][2]

Black families$59,980

White families$91,930

Asian families$126,300

Middle income by family group in 2025. Black families gained the most, but the gap is still large.

Who is involved

The US Census Bureau

the US government agency that runs the national survey of households; it published the 2025 figures on 15 September
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

a Washington research group that studies programmes for families on low incomes; its staff called 2025 the calm before the cuts
The National Council on Aging

a US charity for older people; it pointed to the rise in poverty among over-65s

How it unfolded

1967 the income series the record is measured against begins [5]
2021 a bigger child tax credit pushes child poverty to a record low of 5.2% [8]
2022 the bigger credit ends and child poverty rises to 12.4% [8]
July 2025 a new US law cuts Medicaid and food aid [1]
15 Sep 2026 the Census Bureau publishes the 2025 figures [1][2]

Where this points

The cuts to food aid and Medicaid are expected to show more clearly in the reports covering 2026 and later. The fuller measure is the one to watch, because it includes those benefits. [1][2]

What is pushing on the whole day

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing today. The arrow is where it is heading. The evidence is in the stories below.

Prices rising again Building↑

Prices in Britain rose 3.1% in the year to August. [15] Three of the nine people who set the Bank of England's interest rate voted to raise it. [15] Forecasters expect next year's US Social Security rise to be 3.4% to 3.6%, above this year's 2.8%. [11]

Help for poor households shrinking High↑

A US law passed in July 2025 cuts Medicaid and food aid. [1] The 2025 poverty figures do not show those cuts yet. [1] A Brookings study says cash help for very poor adults without children has been cut since the late 1980s. [14]

Fights over who covers extra fees Building↑

Australia bans extra fees for paying by card from 1 October. [19] Its banks warn they may raise other card charges instead. [19] The US House of Representatives voted to ask state regulators to make big computer centres pay for the extra strain they put on the power grid. [18]

Money rules being rewritten Steady↑

Britain's financial regulator opens applications for crypto firms on 30 September. [20] The same regulator has finished asking for views on narrowing a rule that makes firms look after their customers. [22]

The rest of the day

8 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

02
Social Security rise forecast at 3.4% to 3.6%

AARP, a US group for people over 50, forecast on 11 September that Social Security payments would rise 3.6% in January 2027. [9] Another estimate puts it at about 3.4%. [10] The rise follows a price index for working households, averaged over July, August and September. [9] This year's rise was 2.8%, and the average over 20 years is 2.6%. [11][12] The Senior Citizens League, another group for older people, had forecast 2.8% in March and 3.9% in April. [13] The official figure comes on 14 October. [11]

20-year average2.6%
This year's rise2.8%
AARP's 2027 forecast3.6%
How much Social Security payments rise each year. The forecast for January 2027 is higher than this year's rise and the 20-year average.

Why it matters — The average retirement payment was $2,085 a month in July, so 3.6% would add about $75. [9] A Medicare premium rise of $6.60 is taken out of the same payment, so the rise left after the premium is nearer 3.28%. [9]
03
Bank of England holds its rate at 3.75%

The Bank of England kept its main interest rate at 3.75% on 17 September, by six votes to three. [15] The three wanted a rise to 4%. [15] Prices in Britain rose 3.1% in the year to August, and the Bank expects them to rise further as war in the Middle East keeps oil and gas dear. [15] The Bank had cut its rate from 5.25% in August 2024 to 3.75% in December 2025. [16]

August 20245.25%
December 20253.75%
17 September3.75%
The Bank of England's main interest rate. It was cut until December 2025, and it has now been kept the same.

Why it matters — A market rate that lenders watch for five-year fixed mortgages rose above 4.52% in the first week of September, its highest since October 2023, which is expected to push up fixed-rate deals. [17] The Bank also said it will sell off the rest of the UK government bonds it bought, by the end of 2034. [15]
04
US poverty study: fewer poor, the poorest no better

Two researchers at Brookings, a Washington research group, published a study on 14 September covering US poverty from 1967 to 2023. [14] The share of people in poverty fell by a quarter to a half, depending on the measure used. [14] But deep poverty, living on less than half the poverty line, improved much less. [14] How far the poorest fell below the line improved very little. [14]

Why it matters — The study says adults aged 18 to 64 with little or no work and no children did worst, because cash help for them has been cut since the late 1980s. [14] It ends in 2023, and the authors expect the 2025 cuts to raise deep poverty. [14]
05
Australia bans card fees from 1 October

From 1 October, Australian shops can no longer add a fee for paying by debit, prepaid or credit card on eftpos, Mastercard or Visa. [19] The Reserve Bank of Australia, the country's central bank, expects this to save shoppers about A$1.6 billion a year. [19] It is also cutting the fee banks take from each credit card payment, from 0.8% to 0.3%. [19] Only 16% of shops added card fees in 2024-25, but that share had doubled since 2022. [19]

Bank fee now0.8%
Bank fee after the cut0.3%
The fee banks take from each credit card payment in Australia, before and after the cut.

Why it matters — The Reserve Bank of Australia expects some shops to put up their menu prices slightly to cover card costs, which would cost people paying in cash a little more. [19] Banks say they may raise card fees or shorten interest-free periods to make up about A$660 million a year. [19]
06
US House votes on data centre power bills

The US House of Representatives passed a bill on 16 September, with support from both parties, about the cost of electricity for data centres. [18] Data centres are huge buildings full of computers that run AI, and they use a lot of power. [18] The bill asks state regulators to consider making data centres pay for any extra costs they add to the grid. [18] It still needs the US Senate and President Trump. [18]

Why it matters — People in both parties are worried about rising electricity bills, and data centres have become an issue before November's elections. [18] But Congress cannot force state regulators, who set household electricity rates, to follow the rule. [18]
07
UK regulator may narrow a customer rule

Britain's Financial Conduct Authority, the FCA, stopped taking views on 18 September on changes to its Consumer Duty. [22] The Duty, in force since 2023, requires banks, insurers and other financial firms to deliver good outcomes for ordinary customers. [22] The FCA says it has been applied more widely than intended, especially where firms deal with each other and where a product passes through several firms. [22] It expects to make new rules early in 2027. [22]

Why it matters — Earlier this year the FCA said it would lean on the Duty rather than write many detailed rules. [23] If the FCA narrows the Duty, customers of the firms left outside it lose the protection it gives. [22][23]
08
UK crypto firms can apply from 30 September

The FCA published guidance on how Britain's new law for crypto firms applies to them. [20] Firms can apply for permission from 30 September 2026, and the rules take full effect on 25 October 2027. [20] The rules cover firms that issue stablecoins, which are digital tokens meant to keep the value of a currency like the pound. [20] They also cover trading platforms and firms that hold crypto for customers. [20]

Why it matters — Earlier this year the FCA set out how its customer rules, compensation and the safekeeping of customers' coins would apply to crypto firms. [21] It is the first step before the FCA's customer rules reach crypto firms in October 2027. [20][21]
09
Brookings studies a tax break for investors

Opportunity Zones, created by a US tax law in 2017, let investors put off or avoid tax on gains from selling assets. [24] To qualify, the gains must be reinvested in poorer areas chosen by state governors. [24] Brookings studied 7,174 of the 7,826 zones from 2018 to 2025, using records of new building. [24] It found the break can speed up investment in struggling areas, mostly in property, but results varied from state to state. [24]

Why it matters — A 2025 law made a changed version of the tax break permanent, with a new round of zones chosen in 2026. [24] The study's data counts buildings but does not show their cost or size. [24]

02 Lesson why it matters

A poverty rate can fall while the poorest sink deeper

A poverty rate only asks who is below the line. Lift the people just under it and the rate falls, even if those far below get poorer.

The twist

The poverty rate drops most easily when help goes to the people just below the line, because they need the smallest top-up to cross it.

The picture

Family A short, before$1,000

Family A short, after$0

Family B short, before$10,000

Family B short, after$14,000

Made-up numbers. Before, two families are below the line and $11,000 short in all. After, only Family B is below, so the rate halves, but the shortfall grows to $14,000.

How it works

The poverty line is one income figure for a household of a given size
The poverty rate only asks who is below that line
Lift a family from just under the line to just over it, and the rate falls
A family far below the line can lose income, and the rate does not change
So a second number, the gap, measures how far below the line people are

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

The Brookings study of poverty since 1967

the share of people in poverty fell by a quarter to a half, while the distance of the poorest below the line barely improved
The Opportunity Zones study

the data counts how many buildings went up, so a small shed and a large block of flats each add one
The Social Security rise

the $75 figure is for the average payment, and many older people get much less and have nothing else

Where you've seen this

School exam results

a pass rate rises when pupils just under the pass mark scrape over, while the weakest pupils can fall further behind

Hospital waiting lists

a target of treating people within 18 weeks can be met while those already waiting a year wait even longer

Debt charities

the number of people in arrears says nothing about whether each one owes a month's rent or a year's

The catch

A falling rate is still real for the people who crossed the line, and a gap is harder to measure and explain, so the two numbers work best side by side.

And the whole of it

Most of us only ever hear the rate. Each of the 34.5 million people below the official line sits at their own distance from it, and the single number cannot tell a family a few dollars short from a family with almost nothing.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

The Census Bureau says 2025 was a good year for the middle US household, with a record income of $87,460 and 1.5 million fewer people below the official poverty line. The same report shows tax credits kept 6.1 million people out of poverty and food aid lifted 3.1 million out, and a law passed in July 2025 is now cutting food aid and Medicaid. [1][2]

Why it works on us — A record is easy to repeat, and it describes the household in the middle, while the bottom tenth of families saw almost no change. [2]

Who gains

Women working full time in the US — Their median pay rose by $1,900 in 2025, while men's fell by $690. [3]
People on US Social Security — Forecasts put January's rise at 3.4% to 3.6%, above this year's 2.8%, because the rise follows prices. [9][11]
Australian businesses — The cap on the fee banks take from each card payment falls, which the Reserve Bank of Australia says saves businesses about A$910 million a year. [19]
US investors with gains from selling assets — They can put off or avoid tax on those gains by reinvesting in Opportunity Zones, which a 2025 law made permanent. [24]

Who pays

Americans with large medical bills — The bills pushed 7.7 million people below the poverty line on the fuller measure in 2025. [1]
US adults aged 18 to 64 with little work and no children — Cash help for them has been cut since the late 1980s, and how far they fall below the line has barely improved since 1967. [14]
People on US Social Security — A projected Medicare premium rise of $6.60 a month comes out of the same payment as the raise. [9]
Australians who pay in cash — Shops that stop charging card fees may raise menu prices a little for everyone, including people who never used a card. [19]
Australian banks — Lower card fees are expected to cost them about A$660 million a year. [19]
UK households about to fix a mortgage — A market rate lenders watch rose above 4.52%, its highest since October 2023, which is expected to push fixed-rate deals up. [17]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

01

Which poverty figure is the poverty rate.

The New York Times reports the rate as 13.1%, the same as in 2024. NPR reports the official rate as 10.2%, down from 10.7%. It gives 13.1% as the figure once benefits and medical bills are included. [1][2]
02

How many older Americans are poor.

Using the Census Bureau's fuller measure, the National Council on Aging puts it at 15.4% for 2025. [6] A Brookings brief in June, using a different experimental version, put it near 6% for 2021. [7]
03

How much of the cuts to food aid and Medicaid will show in next year's figures.

The 2025 report does not capture most of them, and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities expects bigger effects from 2026 on. [1] The Brookings poverty study ends in 2023 and only predicts the direction. [14]
04

How big the January 2027 Social Security rise will be.

AARP forecasts 3.6% and another estimate is about 3.4%. [9][10] September's prices are still to come, and higher oil prices could push the final figure up. [9]
05

Whether Australian shops will raise their prices after card fees are banned.

The Reserve Bank of Australia expects any rises to be negligible, while banks say they may raise card fees or shorten interest-free periods instead. [19]
06

Whether any US state will make data centres pay for grid costs.

The House bill only asks state regulators to consider it, and Congress cannot force them. [18] It has not passed the Senate. [18]
07

Whether the Bank of England raises its rate in November.

Three of nine members already voted for 4%, and the Bank says the answer depends on how big and how long the energy shock is. [15]
08

What the Opportunity Zone buildings were worth.

The Brookings data counts new buildings but cannot tell their cost or size. [24]

04 Hope carry this

In 2025, 1.5 million fewer Americans lived below the official poverty line than a year before, 34.5 million against 36 million. The middle household's income reached $87,460, the highest since the records began in 1967.

Also true today

Tax credits for working families and children kept 6.1 million Americans out of poverty in 2025, and food aid lifted another 3.1 million out.
Black families' median income rose 4.8% in 2025, the largest gain of any group.
Between 1967 and 2023, the share of Americans living in poverty fell by between a quarter and a half, depending on how it is measured.