Day Lila

Personal Money · Wednesday, 21 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

US home-sale contracts fall 7.3% in September to the lowest level since records began in 2001, as home loan rates stay above 7%

16 stories 33 sources

Americans signed fewer contracts to buy homes in September than in any month since the count began in 2001, as 30-year loan rates sat above 7%. Prices still rose, because most sellers are waiting rather than cutting.

66.0

on the realtors' index of signed home-sale contracts in September

the lowest since the index began in 2001 [3]

11.3%

fewer signed home sales than a year earlier

every one of the four US regions fell [2]

3.8%

rise in US home sale prices in the year to September

the fastest yearly rise since June 2025, by Redfin's count [5]

7.52%

average 30-year fixed home loan rate on Tuesday

down 0.11 points in a week, by HousingWire's count [6]

The lead story — what happened

  • Americans signed 7.3% fewer contracts to buy a home in September than in August, the National Association of Realtors, the US estate agents' trade group, said on Tuesday. [1][2]
  • Its index of these signed contracts, called pending sales, fell to 66.0, the lowest reading since the index began in 2001. [2][3]
  • Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a fall of only 0.4%. [3]
  • Signed sales were 11.3% lower than a year earlier, and they fell in every US region. [1][2]
  • From August to September the West fell 9.2%, the South 8.2%, the Midwest 6.5% and the Northeast 4.2%. [1][2]
  • A signed contract usually becomes a finished sale one to two months later, so this is an early sign of how many homes will change hands this autumn. [1]
  • Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist, blamed home loan rates that rose fast after the average 30-year rate passed 7%. [2][4]
  • Home loan rates follow the interest on the US government's 10-year bonds, which fell from 5.31% on 5 October to 5.09% on 16 October. [6][7]
  • That drop came as worries about profits from AI pushed investors out of shares and into government bonds. [6][7]
  • On Tuesday HousingWire put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.52%, down 0.11 points in a week. [6] NerdWallet, using Zillow's figures, put it at 7.23%. [7]
  • Prices have not fallen with sales: Redfin, a US property website, says sale prices rose 0.25% in September and 3.8% in a year, the fastest yearly rise since June 2025. [5]
  • Redfin says most sellers are not desperate. Many have enough value in their homes to wait rather than take a low offer, and some are taking homes off the market. [5]
  • Asking prices have fallen for 11 months in a row, and the stock of homes for sale would take longer to clear than at almost any time in 10 years. [1]
  • The US central bank meets on 28 October, and most traders expect it to hold its rate then and raise it in December. [6][8]
How far signed home sales fell from August to September, in each US region.

Who is involved

  • National Association of Realtors

    the US estate agents' trade group; it counts signed home-sale contracts each month

  • Lawrence Yun

    the group's chief economist; he says loan rates could be near their top

  • Redfin

    a US property website that tracks sale prices; it says sellers are waiting rather than cutting

  • The US central bank

    the Federal Reserve, which sets the short-term interest rate; it meets on 28 October

How it unfolded

  1. Feb the average 30-year rate briefly dips below 6% [6]
  2. Sep rates pass 7% and signed sales fall 7.3% [1][4]
  3. 5-16 Oct the 10-year US bond rate falls from 5.31% to 5.09% [6]
  4. 20 Oct the realtors' report shows the lowest reading since 2001 [2]
  5. 28 Oct the US central bank meets [8]

Where this points

Watch October's signed sales and the US central bank's 28 October meeting: Yun thinks loan rates could be near their top, while most traders expect a rate rise in December. [2][6]

Signals on this beat

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.

Home loans above 7% High→

Signed home sales fell 7.3% in September after the 30-year loan rate passed 7%. [1] Builders started 4.6% fewer single-family homes in the same month. [9] Builders' confidence is at its lowest since 2012. [10]

Taxes on the very rich Building↑

Britain's chancellor ruled out raising capital gains tax, the tax on profits from selling assets, after warnings it could bring in less. [16] Scott Kirby, the head of United Airlines, called for a US tax on wealth. [26] The richest 1% of Americans held 32.5% of the country's wealth in the second quarter of 2026. [28]

Fuel and running costs High→

A food charity in south-west England says petrol rose 31% and diesel 41% in six months. [33] Small UK firms cut job adverts and blamed higher labour costs. [19] A teenager told a BBC event that insuring his small car costs 177 pounds a month. [31]

Disputes without a fair hearing Building↑

Louisiana's part-time eviction judges are paid from the fees their courts charge, and landlords choose where to file. [22][23] Vinted sellers say the app refunds buyers without showing its evidence. [25] Village Capital, a US home loan firm, refused a legal rate cut to at least 41 people in the military, US prosecutors said. [24]

The rest of the day

15 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Builders start fewer homes

    US builders started homes at a yearly pace of 1.22 million in September, 5.2% fewer than in August, the US Census Bureau said. [9][10] Single-family starts fell 4.6%, to a pace of 859,000. [9] Starts of flats in blocks fell 25.9% from a year earlier, after asking rents fell for 38 months in a row. [9] Builders finished 14% fewer homes than a year before. [9]

    Why it matters — Fewer homes started now means fewer new homes to buy or rent later, when buyers may return. Permits are running ahead of finished homes, which Realtor.com reads as builders waiting for better conditions. [9]

  2. 03

    New student flats stand partly empty

    Developers opened more than 31,000 new off-campus student bedrooms in US university towns this year, 20% more than last year, Yardi Matrix, a property data firm, counts. [11] Buildings opened this year were 84.1% full in September, against 95.3% for last year's new buildings. [11] In 2021 the 50 most crowded universities were short of about 756,000 beds. [11] New international students then fell 7% in 2024-25 and another 17% by autumn 2025. [11]

    Why it matters — The flats were planned when beds were scarce and rents were rising. They opened after demand had changed, and rents near some campuses fell 3% or more this year. [11]

  3. 04

    The rules behind Musk's share gift

    Elon Musk, the world's richest man, said he will give one of his SpaceX shares to every US child next year. [12] President Trump thanked him for giving them through Trump Accounts, US government investment accounts for children. [13] About 70 million of these accounts exist. [12] At about 148 dollars a share, a share for each of roughly 72 million children is worth about 10.6 billion dollars. [13] Under US Treasury rules, families cannot refuse donated shares or, in most cases, sell them for up to five years. [12]

    Why it matters — A child gets a share at no cost but cannot sell it even if SpaceX runs into trouble. [12] Musk has made big promises before, and only recently settled lawsuits over a voter giveaway he promised in 2024. [15]

  4. 05

    UK chancellor rules out a capital gains rise

    John Healey, Britain's chancellor, has decided against raising capital gains tax in his Budget on 28 October, the BBC reports. [16][18] The tax is charged on the profit from selling things like shares or a second home, at 18% or 24%. [16] HM Revenue and Customs, the UK tax office, estimated that raising the higher rate by 10% would cut receipts by 3.6 billion pounds in 2028-29. [16] The biggest expected money-raiser is a higher tax on bank profits. [17]

    Why it matters — Warnings said wealthy people could leave the country or wait to sell, so a higher rate could bring in less. [17] In an Ipsos poll, 65% of Britons expect some tax rise in the Budget. [17]

  5. 06

    UK pay beats prices as fewer are jobless

    Unemployment in the UK fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, the lowest since July last year, the Office for National Statistics, the UK's official statistics body, said. [19] Pay before bonuses rose 3.7% in a year, 0.8% more than prices. [19] Job vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000, the fewest in more than five years. [19] The statistics office said small firms blamed higher labour costs for hiring less. [19]

    Why it matters — People in work are gaining ground on prices. People looking for a first job face fewer openings, and unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds was 15.6%. [19]

  6. 07

    Think tank urges care on youth pay rates

    The Resolution Foundation, a UK think tank on living standards, told the Low Pay Commission not to narrow the gap between youth and adult minimum wages next year. [20] The commission meets once a year to settle the next year's minimum wage rates. [20] From April 2022 to April 2026 average weekly pay rose 24%, the adult minimum wage 34% and the older youth rate 59%. [20] About 960,000 people aged 16 to 24 are not in work, education or training. [21]

    How much each rose from April 2022 to April 2026.

    Why it matters — The foundation says it cannot show that the minimum wage caused young people's job losses since 2022, but caution is safer while the job market is weak. [20] Ministers plan an announcement on young people out of work in November. [21]

  7. 08

    Louisiana judges paid from eviction fees

    A nine-month Guardian investigation found that Louisiana's 390 part-time justices of the peace are paid directly from the fees their courts charge, including for evictions. [22][23] They need only a high school diploma, and landlords can choose which court to file in. [22][23] One justice near New Orleans earned more than 400,000 dollars in 2025, over 80,000 more than the US chief justice. [23] The courts collected 45 million dollars in fees from 2016 to 2025. [23]

    • Kept as justices' pay31 m dollars · 69%
    • Staff and other costs14 m dollars · 31%
    Of 45 million dollars in fees from 2016 to 2025, the Guardian estimates at least 31 million went to the justices themselves.

    Why it matters — Leases often make tenants repay the court costs of their own eviction. [23] A class action in a federal court in Baton Rouge says the system pushes judges to rule for landlords, which that justice denies. [23]

  8. 09

    Home loan firm pays people it overcharged

    Village Capital, a US firm that runs home loans for veterans, will pay more than 500,000 dollars to settle claims by the US Justice Department. [24] A US law caps interest at 6% on older debts of people in the military while they serve, and for a year after on home loans. [24] Prosecutors said the firm refused that cut on at least 41 home loans and wrongly told the veterans' agency some borrowers were behind. [24] It admits nothing and will pay at least 425,000 dollars to those affected. [24]

    Why it matters — The cut is a right in law, but each borrower has to ask the firm for it. The firm must now accept requests by mail, email or online, and train staff to handle them. [24]

  9. 10

    Vinted sellers say bans come without a hearing

    Sellers on Vinted, an app for selling used clothes and goods, say it refunds buyers in disputes and bans accounts without showing its evidence, the Guardian reports. [25] One seller, Catherine Warrilow, set up a website that has collected more than 6,400 such cases. [25] Vinted users traded 10.8 billion euros of goods in 2025, 47% more than the year before. [25] Vinted says people handle every appeal, and 98% of sales need no help. [25]

    Why it matters — Warrilow lost money on a 6-pound necklace after the buyer said the parcel arrived empty, despite her doorbell video of posting it. [25] A consumer expert, Martyn James, says automated systems appear to be judging the cases. [25]

  10. 11

    United's boss calls for a US wealth tax

    Scott Kirby, head of United Airlines, told the New York Times the US should have a national wealth tax, a yearly tax on what people own. [26][27] He said a state-by-state tax would not work because people would move. [26] He also backed inheritance taxes close to 100% at some level, and said he would pay them. [26] His pay in 2025 was valued at over 32 million dollars. [26] Californians vote in November on a tax on billionaires. [26]

    Why it matters — US government figures show the richest 1% held 32.5% of the country's wealth in the second quarter of 2026, up from 31.7% three months earlier. [28] About 6 in 10 Americans say there is too much inequality, a Pew survey found. [28]

  11. 12

    Cloud failure locks UK bank customers out

    A power fault at a site used by Google Cloud in London disrupted Revolut, Lloyds and HSBC on Tuesday morning, the BBC reports. [29] Google Cloud rents computer power to many companies, and the fault hit one of its smaller data centre zones. [29] More than 1,500 Revolut problems were reported soon after 8am, and some customers could not reach their money. [29] Google said services were restored by the evening. [29]

    Why it matters — Many banks run on a handful of cloud companies, so one fault reaches customers of several banks at once. It came a year to the day after an Amazon cloud failure knocked UK banks offline. [29]

  12. 13

    Foursquare sale pays its shareholders nothing

    Foursquare, a US location-data company, has been bought by another firm, Infillion, and its shareholders got nothing, co-founder Dennis Crowley wrote. [30] He said no money was paid for either its preferred shares or its common shares. [30] About 1,600 people worked at Foursquare over 17 years. [30] Crowley said the result was buried in a 125-page legal document. [30]

    Why it matters — Crowley wrote to the 1,600 former staff that the ending makes their work seem worth nothing. [30] He blamed the leaders put in after a private equity firm invested in 2019. [30]

  13. 14

    UK teenagers ask for lessons on money

    In a Survation survey of 2,000 UK 13- to 18-year-olds for the BBC, 43% wanted more help at school with managing money. [31] Only more work experience was asked for more often, by 44%. [31] Nearly a third said school was preparing them badly for the future of work. [31] One teenager at a BBC event said he pays 177 pounds a month to insure a small car. [31]

    Why it matters — Teenagers at the event described paying for car insurance, university and a 75-pound admissions test before leaving school. [31] Skills minister Jacqui Smith said the UK government wants them to leave school ready for their next step. [31]

  14. 15

    Sheffield raises its crisis grants

    Sheffield City Council has raised its one-off crisis payments for people in severe money trouble by 30 pounds. [32] A single person now gets 95 pounds instead of 65, and a home of five or more gets 130 pounds. [32] The fund pays for essentials such as food, toiletries and household bills. [32] The council has made at least 7,000 crisis grants, worth nearly 600,000 pounds, since April. [32]

    Sheffield's one-off crisis payment for a single person, before and after the rise.

    Why it matters — The rise followed a review of living costs by a council committee. [32] Its chair, councillor Elle Dodd, said life is difficult and expensive for too many people in Sheffield. [32]

  15. 16

    Fuel costs squeeze a food charity

    FareShare South West, a charity that passes surplus food to about 70 groups in Devon and Cornwall, says fuel prices are straining its work. [33] Its hub manager said petrol rose 31% and diesel 41% in six months. [33] Demand for food support has risen 45% since the Covid pandemic, the charity says. [33] Its 80 volunteers in Plymouth pay their own travel to shifts. [33]

    Why it matters — The charity says some volunteers may stop coming if fuel stays dear. [33] It still plans to move to a bigger hub in Plymouth later this year. [33]

02 Lesson why it matters

New homes arrive years after the shortage that called for them

Builders plan on today's rents, but homes take years to build, so they often open after the shortage has passed and rents are falling.

The twist

Builders decide using today's rents, but the homes open years later. So new homes tend to arrive after the shortage has passed, and building slows just as the next shortage begins.

The picture

US student blocks that opened in 2026 were much emptier in September than last year's new blocks had been in September 2025.

How it works

  1. Homes run short, and rents rise
  2. Builders plan new homes on those high rents
  3. Building takes years, and demand changes meanwhile
  4. The new homes open together, after the shortage has eased
  5. Rents fall and building slows, until homes run short again

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • New student flats stand partly empty

    Blocks planned after the most crowded campuses were about 756,000 beds short opened this year, after new foreign student numbers fell. They are only 84.1% full, and rents near some campuses are falling.

  • Builders start fewer homes

    Rents have fallen for 38 months and loans cost over 7%, and builders started 25.9% fewer flats than a year ago. Fewer new flats will be ready when demand comes back.

Where you've seen this

Cocoa and coffee farms

new trees take years to bear crops, so planting after a price spike brings a flood of beans years later

Chip factories

firms build new factories during a shortage, and the factories often open after demand has cooled

Training nurses or teachers

a shortage raises pay, students start courses, and they qualify years later into a job market that may have changed

The catch

The pattern needs slow building and demand that can turn quickly. Where student numbers or families keep growing, new homes fill up as fast as they open.

And the whole of it

A student signing a lease, a builder deciding whether to start a block and a family waiting for cheaper loans each see only this year's rents and rates. How many homes they will compete for in a few years is being decided now, by builders reading the same numbers.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

Americans signed fewer contracts to buy a home in September than in any month since 2001, because home loans cost more than 7%. [1][3] Prices still rose 3.8% in a year, because most owners are not forced to sell and are waiting rather than cutting, Redfin says. [5]

Why it works on us — The words 'record low' make the housing market sound like it is crashing, but they count deals, and prices kept rising.

Who gains

  • US buyers who can still borrow or pay cash — Asking prices have fallen for 11 months, and Redfin says buyers have more bargaining power than in over a decade. [1][5]
  • People with big gains on shares or second homes in Britain — They will not face a higher capital gains rate in the 28 October Budget. [16]
  • Louisiana's busiest justices of the peace — Their pay grows with the fees their courts charge, and one earned more than 400,000 dollars in 2025. [23]
  • UK workers who have jobs — Their pay before bonuses rose 0.8% faster than prices over the year. [19]
  • SpaceX and other donors of shares — The five-year hold stops families selling gifted shares all at once, which could push the price down, a tax strategist at Northern Trust told CNBC. [12]

Who pays

  • First-time US home buyers — Loans above 7% keep them out, and Realtor.com's economist says wage growth is running below inflation. [1]
  • Louisiana tenants facing eviction — Leases often make them repay the court costs of their own eviction, and few have a lawyer. [22][23]
  • Young people looking for work in the UK — Job vacancies are at their lowest in more than five years, and youth unemployment was 15.6%. [19]
  • Vinted sellers who lose disputes — The buyer is refunded, and a seller can lose the item, the money and the account. [25]
  • Foursquare's shareholders — The sale paid nothing on either kind of share. [30]
  • Volunteers at FareShare South West — They pay their own fuel to reach shifts, and petrol rose 31% in six months. [33]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    Whether home loan rates have reached their top.

    Lawrence Yun says rates could be topping out, but most traders expect the US central bank to raise its rate in December. [2][6]

  • 02

    What the average US home loan rate actually was on Tuesday.

    HousingWire's own average for standard loans was 7.52%, while NerdWallet's figure from Zillow was 7.23%; they measure different things, and Freddie Mac's weekly survey put it at 7.4% the week before. [6][7][9]

  • 03

    Whether Musk's share gift will happen, and when.

    Musk only appeared to suggest Trump Accounts as the route and gave no date beyond next year. The US Treasury's rules for donated shares are temporary and open to public comment. [12]

  • 04

    Whether the student blocks still being built will find tenants.

    About 18,500 more beds are under construction in the 10 busiest markets, and new international student numbers fell again in 2025. [11]

  • 05

    Which taxes Healey's Budget raises instead of capital gains.

    Labour promised not to raise income tax, National Insurance or VAT, and Healey has refused to rule out other tax rises. [18]

  • 06

    Whether the minimum wage has cost young people jobs.

    The Resolution Foundation says the evidence cannot show it, and the IFS could not rule out no effect at all. [20]

  • 07

    Whether Louisiana's fee-paid judges rule differently because of the fees.

    A class action says they do. Justice Chuck Cusimano says landlords pay upfront whatever the outcome, and the state attorney general did not answer the Guardian. [23]

  • 08

    On what evidence Vinted decides disputes against sellers.

    Sellers say Vinted cites its own evidence without showing it, and Vinted says people review every appeal. Neither side's account can be checked from outside. [25]

04 Hope carry this

UK pay before bonuses rose 3.7% in the year to August, 0.8% faster than prices, and unemployment fell to 4.7%.

Also true today

  • Village Capital will pay at least 425,000 dollars to people in the US military, to settle claims that it did not cut their home loan rates to the 6% the law allows.
  • Sheffield City Council raised its crisis grant for a single person from 65 pounds to 95 pounds, and it has made at least 7,000 crisis grants since April.

Across the beats