Personal Money · Friday, 23 October 2026
UK consumer confidence falls 11 points to -24 in October, the sharpest one-month drop outside Covid since the 2016 Brexit vote, days before the Budget
GfK's monthly survey shows Britons turning gloomy fast as fuel and energy prices climb, five days before Chancellor John Healey's first Budget. Also today: a Trump order on home loan costs, $3 billion lost by older Americans to scams, uneven inflation across Europe and falling house prices in every Australian capital.
-24
GfK's UK consumer confidence reading for October, down 11 points in one month
the biggest one-month fall outside Covid since July 2016
-22
GfK's reading on whether now is a good time to buy big items, down 14 points
a sign people may cut back to pay winter energy bills, the Guardian says
14,000 pounds
almost this much extra paid by an average UK household over five years for mortgages, loans, energy and water
an estimate by the TUC, the body for UK trade unions
2 in 3
low-income UK families who say they struggle to afford essentials
almost half have skipped meals or cut portions, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found
The lead story — what happened
-
GfK's UK consumer confidence index fell 11 points to -24 in October.
[1] [2] It undid a slow recovery over the months before.[3] -
Outside the Covid pandemic, the index last fell this much in one month in July 2016, just after the Brexit vote.
[1] Counting Covid, it is the biggest fall since April 2020.[2] -
The index comes from a monthly survey tracked since the early 1970s.
[1] [9] It takes the share of hopeful answers about money and the economy, and subtracts the share of gloomy ones.[9] -
The measure of whether now is a good time to buy big items fell 14 points to -22.
[1] The Guardian reads this as people bracing to cut spending this winter to pay higher energy bills.[1] -
Neil Bellamy of GfK blamed 'relentless' cost-of-living pressure.
[1] UK prices rose 3.5% in the year to September, the fastest for almost a year.[6] -
The war in the Middle East has pushed UK petrol and diesel prices close to record highs.
[1] [7] Warnings say a typical home's energy bill could reach 2,000 pounds a year from January.[1] -
The TUC, which speaks for UK trade unions, says the average household paid almost 14,000 pounds more over five years for mortgages, loans, energy and water.
[1] -
Almost two in three low-income families say they struggle to afford food, heating and clothes, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation says.
[6] Almost half have skipped meals or cut portions.[6] -
Errol McGuiness, 79, sits in the dark in the evenings and wears extra layers instead of turning up the heating.
[6] The manager of a food bank in Stoke-on-Trent says stories like his are becoming more common.[6] -
Chancellor John Healey, the UK's finance minister, gives his first Budget on Wednesday 28 October.
[1] [8] He has promised 'breathing space' for households, but says he has little money to spare.[1] -
Figures on Wednesday put the UK government's deficit, the gap it must borrow to fill, at 24.5 billion pounds, worse than forecast.
[1] The national debt passed 3 trillion pounds for the first time.[7] -
The Institute for Fiscal Studies, a research group, says Healey may need to find 35 billion pounds to avoid cuts to services while raising defence spending.
[8]
- 1April−25
- 2July−17
- 3September−13
- 4October−24
Who is involved
-
GfK
a market research company that runs the UK's monthly consumer confidence survey; its Neil Bellamy blamed the cost of living
-
John Healey
the UK chancellor, in charge of tax and spending; gives his first Budget on 28 October
-
Andy Burnham
the UK prime minister since the summer; has promised to remove standing charges from gas bills
-
Joseph Rowntree Foundation
a UK charity that studies poverty; found two in three low-income families struggling
How it unfolded
-
April GfK's index falls 4 points to -25, its lowest since October 2023
[4] -
July it rises 6 points to -17 as Andy Burnham takes over as prime minister
[5] -
September it reaches -13 after a slow recovery
[1] [3] -
21 October UK prices are 3.5% up on a year; the deficit is 24.5 billion pounds
[1] [7] -
23 October GfK's index falls 11 points to -24
[1] [2] -
28 October John Healey gives his first Budget
[8] [10]
Where this points
The next scheduled test is John Healey's Budget on Wednesday 28 October, and whether his 'breathing space' for households comes with a figure for help with energy bills before January.
Signals on this beat
The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.
Petrol and diesel in the UK have climbed close to record highs.
The average 30-year US home loan rate was 7.32% this week, against 6.19% a year ago.
Britons' sense that now is a good time to buy big items fell 14 points in October.
Donald Trump ordered a test of cancelling some home loan insurance without the borrower asking.
The rest of the day
19 more stories on this beat.
Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.
-
02
Trump signs an order on home loan costs
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday aimed at the cost of home loans.
[11] [12] It tells the FHFA, which oversees the big US home loan buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to test cancelling mortgage insurance without the borrower asking.[11] That insurance protects the lender and is usually not needed once an owner holds 20% of the home's value.[11] It also lets more refinancing borrowers skip title insurance, which covers disputes over who owns a home.[12] And it asks two departments to cut rates on their own home loans.[12] Why it matters — It reaches borrowers whose homes have risen in value and who are still paying for cover they no longer need.
[11] Analysts at KBW, an investment bank, expect little effect on title insurers while it covers only refinancing, about 7% of their premiums.[12] Before the signing, people familiar with the talks told Semafor that housing groups warned parts of it could push prices up.[13] -
03
Older Americans lose 3 billion dollars to scams
Americans aged 60 and over reported losing about 3 billion dollars to fraud in 2025, up 25% from 2.4 billion dollars in 2024.
[14] The figure comes from the yearly report to the US Congress by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the US consumer protection agency, released on Monday.[14] Only 6% of older victims lost 100,000 dollars or more, but they made up 70% of the losses.[14] Investment scams cost the most, over 1 billion dollars, up 42%.[14] The FTC thinks the real total, counting scams nobody reported, was between 13.3 billion and 119.5 billion dollars.[14] 20200.6 bn dollars20242.4 bn dollars20253 bn dollarsFraud losses reported by Americans aged 60 and over, in billions of dollars. Why it matters — Victims of some scams cannot deduct the loss from their taxes, and may owe tax on retirement money the scammer took.
[14] A bill to change that passed the US House of Representatives 408 to 17 in September and is waiting in a US Senate committee.[14] -
04
Europe's price rises split three ways
Three countries that use the euro saw very different price rises in September: 2.7% in Finland, 3.3% in Germany and 6.1% in Lithuania, Eurostat figures show.
[15] The euro area average was 3.8%, and energy prices across it rose 18.9%.[15] In Germany, motor fuel cost 37.1% more than a year earlier and heating oil 74.9% more.[15] Lithuania raised its sales tax on home heating, hot water and firewood from 9% to 21% in January.[15] All three live with the same interest rate, 2.50%, set by the European Central Bank.[15] Finland2.7%Germany3.3%Euro average3.8%Lithuania6.1%How much prices rose in the year to September. All four share one central bank rate. Why it matters — Lithuania's pensioners, people on benefits and low-income households with big energy bills are the most exposed, the Euronews analysis says.
[15] Germany cut its own fuel tax on 1 October, so that relief shows up only from October's figures.[15] -
05
House prices fall in every Australian capital
House prices fell in every Australian capital city in the three months to September, the first time in 15 years, says Domain, a property website.
[16] Sydney's median house price fell 4.7% to 1.66 million Australian dollars.[16] Perth's also fell a record 4.7%, and Melbourne's fell 3.3% to 1.014 million.[16] Domain's chief economist, Nicola Powell, blamed higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressure and changes to tax on housing investment.[16] Why it matters — Homes are taking longer to sell, and many cities have more homes for sale than in years, which favours buyers with secure finances.
[16] Powell expects buyers' confidence to return only when an interest rate cut is in sight, which she places late next year.[16] -
06
US home loan rates dip for the first time in two months
The average rate on a 30-year fixed US home loan fell to 7.32% in the week to 22 October, from 7.40% the week before, Freddie Mac, a big US home loan buyer, said.
[19] It was the first fall after seven weekly rises that took rates to three-year highs.[19] A year ago the average was 6.19%.[19] Zillow's figures, collected by NerdWallet, put the rate at 7.26%, a little lower.[20] Rates fell as investors moved money into US government bonds while share prices cooled.[19] Why it matters — Rates climbing from 6.66% in late August to 7.4% on 8 October cut what buyers could afford by 7.2%, Realtor.com worked out.
[19] Contract signings were 9.8% lower than a year ago, and a Realtor.com economist said the damage to this autumn's market is already done.[19] -
07
US Treasury sets out limits on big landlords
The US Treasury, the US government's finance department, published proposed rules on Thursday for a ban on big investors buying houses.
[17] [18] From 7 January 2027, investors owning 350 or more single-family homes may not buy more.[17] Newly built homes for rent are exempt if bought within 18 months of being finished.[18] Investors who repair run-down homes must spend at least 15% of the price on fixing them.[17] Breaking the ban could mean a fine of up to 1 million dollars, or three times what was paid for the home.[17] Why it matters — A Realtor.com economist says the rule steers big landlords towards adding homes and away from bidding against families for existing ones.
[17] Large investors already bought 31.8% fewer homes this year, so she expects the effect mainly where they are concentrated.[17] -
08
Home insurance now costs more than property tax
In 75% of US counties, home and car insurance together now cost more than the yearly property tax, the local tax on a home's value, a Bloomberg Intelligence study found.
[21] Home insurance alone is about 14% dearer than property tax in those counties.[21] Premiums have risen nearly 37% in ten years, and 79% in Nebraska.[21] The average home insurance bill reached 2,808 dollars a year in October, Insurify, a comparison site, says.[21] Why it matters — The study points to climate-related risks, rising home values and dearer repairs.
[21] In parts of the US Southeast, insurance can cost four times the property tax bill.[21] -
09
Half of US mortgages are under 4%
Almost half (49%) of outstanding US home loans had a fixed rate under 4% in the second quarter of 2026, Realtor.com found from federal data.
[22] Another 29% sat between 4% and 6%.[22] A record 43% of loans are five to seven years old, taken out when rates were at historic lows.[22] Moving would mean swapping one of those for a new loan at about 7.4%.[22] Why it matters — Owners who would like to downsize or move nearer family are staying put, and fewer homes come up for sale.
[22] Realtor.com expects 27% to 29% of loans to be at 6% or more by mid-2027, up from 23% now.[22] -
10
The US is missing 4.3 million households
There are 135 million US households, 4.3 million fewer than if people still lived as they did in 2010, a John Burns Research and Consulting report says.
[23] Many young adults live with parents or housemates: a record 25.2 million under 35 lived with their parents in 2025.[23] People aged 15 to 24 are missing 9% of the households they would have formed.[23] The median first-time buyer was 40 years old in 2025, up from 33 in 2020.[23] Why it matters — High loan rates, student debt and low starting pay keep young people from renting or buying their own place.
[23] The authors want more small, cheaper homes built so those households can form.[23] -
11
Old US homes wait for repairs
One US homeowner in four lives in a home built before 1960, Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies found.
[24] The median US home is 44 years old, the oldest ever recorded.[24] A 2025 lenders' survey found 46% of home-equity borrowers wanted the money for repairs or improvements in 2024, down from 65% in 2022.[24] The share using it to pay off other debts rose from 25% to 39%.[24] Repairs, 202265%Repairs, 202446%Paying debts, 202225%Paying debts, 202439%Why US homeowners borrowed against their homes, as a share of borrowers. Why it matters — Home insurance rose 12% in 2025 to an average of 2,948 dollars, Insurify says, and card debts cost over 21% a year.
[24] Repairs left waiting tend to grow, and they cut the price an owner gets when selling.[24] -
12
Mothers' work and the pay gap
In 2025, 74% of US mothers with children under 18 were working or looking for work, against 94% of fathers, a Pew Research Center report published on Thursday shows.
[26] Pew is a US research group that runs large surveys.[26] US women's median hourly pay was 86% of men's in 2025, up from 65% in 1982.[26] Pew says the gap widens once caring for children or parents begins, because women more often take on that care.[26] 0%48%96%19822025US women's median hourly pay as a share of men's, from Pew's figures. Why it matters — Women now finish college more often than men, yet their share of the workforce has barely moved since about 1990.
[26] Many Americans in their 40s now care for an ageing parent and their own children at once.[26] -
13
New York gives nonprofits first chance at run-down buildings
New York City's council passed COPA on Thursday, a law giving nonprofit housing groups the first chance to buy troubled apartment buildings.
[25] It covers buildings of four or more flats with serious disrepair, foreclosure or hazards: about 2,100 today, the city's housing department estimates.[25] Owners must tell the city and approved nonprofits before selling.[25] The groups then get 20 days to show interest and 70 days to make an offer.[25] Why it matters — Mayor Zohran Mamdani backs it to keep tenants from being priced out.
[25] A small landlords' group says the delay will put off buyers ready to fix buildings quickly.[25] -
14
Which? finds 40 unsafe products for sale online
Which?, a UK consumer group, found 40 products it considers unsafe for sale on sites including Amazon, eBay, TikTok Shop and The Range, in a few hours of searching.
[27] They included baby sleeping bags that risk suffocation, heaters that could catch fire and fake 'energy-saving' plugs.[27] Since 2019, marketplaces have told Which? at least 90 times that safety is a 'top priority'.[27] The UK government consulted on new product safety rules and has not yet published them.[27] Why it matters — Which? wants online marketplaces to carry the same legal duty for what they sell as high street shops, with heavy fines when they fail.
[27] Several marketplaces said they removed the listings once told.[27] -
15
Young Americans take on side jobs
More than 60% of Americans in a July survey for Goldman Sachs Asset Management had earned money outside their main job, mostly because they needed to.
[30] Generation Z, roughly today's teenagers and 20-somethings, was the most likely group to do so.[30] 83% of Gen Z and 78% of millennials said they had put a major money goal on hold.[30] 41% of millennials had delayed building emergency savings, though they have jobs.[30] Why it matters — The report says a full-time job may no longer carry the full weight of financial security.
[30] And 30% of millennials said they had delayed buying a home.[30] -
16
Older Britons spend instead of leaving money
82% of Britons over 65 took a holiday in the past year, up five points in two years, Abta, the UK's biggest travel trade body, found.
[31] Its boss told The Times many are spending money that might have gone to their children.[31] Almost half of over-65s said the cost of living would have no effect on their holiday plans.[31] One British parent in seven plans to enjoy their money rather than leave an inheritance, Standard Life, a pension company, found.[31] Why it matters — Younger people expecting a large inheritance may get less than they think.
[31] In the US, a 2024 Northwestern Mutual survey found only 22% of baby boomers expect to leave one.[31] -
17
AmEx narrows its Platinum hotel credit
American Express will stop letting its 600-dollar hotel credit on Platinum cards pay for one-night stays at its Fine Hotels and Resorts from 1 January 2027.
[28] Cardholders will need to book at least two nights.[28] The cards cost 895 dollars a year.[28] From 22 October, AmEx also added more than 1 million Airbnb listings to its travel site, with extra points on prepaid bookings.[28] Why it matters — A one-night stay was the easiest way to use each 300-dollar half of the credit, so holders may have to pay more to get its value.
[28] NerdWallet found some bookings through AmEx cost more than booking directly.[28] -
18
US savings bond site requires ID.me
TreasuryDirect, the only US government website for buying and cashing savings bonds, now requires users to log in through ID.me, an identity-checking service.
[29] New users must give their Social Security number and a photo of an official ID.[29] Paper requests are slow: a claim for lost or stolen bonds takes 11 months or more.[29] The US Treasury closed its online tool for finding forgotten bonds last year.[29] Why it matters — Savers holding old paper bonds face long waits to cash them, and a promised link to state lost-property lists is not ready.
[29] -
19
Prime London home prices fall 7.1%
Homes in the priciest parts of London sold for 7.1% less in September than a year earlier, LonRes, a firm that tracks prime London property, found.
[32] On average, sellers accepted 10.1% less than the price they had asked.[32] Sales were the fewest in any September since 2016, and 16.8% below September 2025.[32] From July to September, homes that took six to twelve months to sell went for 11.1% below asking, against 3.8% for those sold within three months.[32] Why it matters — LonRes's head of research blamed borrowing costs and weak hopes of rising prices, and expects no help for these buyers in the 28 October Budget.
[32] He said the market would welcome reports that a tax on homes worth over 2 million pounds will not be widened to homes worth 1.5 million.[32] -
20
UK asks every home to keep three days of supplies
The UK government on Thursday asked every household to keep enough food and water for 72 hours, in a Cabinet Office campaign called Be Ready.
[33] The guidance says to store three litres of drinking water per person per day.[33] It also says to keep cash, blankets, a first aid kit, a torch and a wind-up radio at home.[33] Ministers want homes ready for storms, cyber attacks or sabotage.[33] France, Ireland and the Netherlands already give similar advice.[33] Why it matters — Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said attacks could knock out the payment systems that businesses use.
[33] Tens of thousands of homes in the Midlands, south-west England and Wales lost power after Storm Goretti in January.[33]
Why a squeeze shows first in the spending that can wait
When bills rise, families still pay for food, heat and rent this month, so they put off the sofa, the repair and the move instead.
The twist
A squeeze shows first in what people can put off, not in what they need. So fewer big purchases and repairs are an early sign that bills are biting, before most people go without heat.
The picture
How it works
- Bills rise, or families expect them to
- Rent, food and heating still have to be paid this month
- So families put off what can wait: big buys, repairs, a move, saving
- Shops selling big items, builders and estate agents feel it first
- Only when nothing is left to put off do cuts reach heat and meals
The same force, elsewhere today
Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.
-
UK consumer confidence
Britons' sense that it is a good time to buy big items fell 14 points while they expect bigger energy bills, so the big buy is cut first.
-
Old US homes wait for repairs
Fewer homeowners borrow to fix their homes and more borrow to pay debts, so the repair is the part that waits.
-
Young Americans take on side jobs
Most Gen Z and millennial workers put a big money goal on hold, so saving for a home or emergencies is what slips.
-
House prices fall in every Australian capital
Domain's economist expects buyers to hold back until a rate cut is in sight, so homes take longer to sell and prices fall.
Where you've seen this
Car sales
an old car can run another year, so new car sales often drop early in a downturn
Town councils
road and building repairs are cut before staff wages, and the repair bill grows while it waits
Dentists
check-ups get skipped when money is tight, and small problems become bigger, dearer ones
The catch
For the poorest households there is nothing left to put off, so the squeeze goes straight to heating and meals, as it has for the UK pensioners living in the dark.
And the whole of it
Each family that puts off a new sofa or a roof repair is being careful with its own money. Added up across millions of homes, those choices cut work for shop staff and builders, who have bills of their own.
What is really going on
Britons turned gloomy fast in October because the war in the Middle East has pushed fuel and energy prices up again, and Chancellor John Healey says he has little money to help in his Budget on 28 October.
Why it works on us — A promise that the order could save 'thousands' of dollars for 'millions' of people sounds like a count, but it came from Bill Pulte, who runs the FHFA, with no published count behind it, less than two weeks before US elections.
Who gains
-
US borrowers with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans whose homes have risen in value
— The order tests cancelling their mortgage insurance without them asking or paying for a new valuation.
[11] -
Builders of new homes for rent
— The US Treasury's proposal lets big investors buy their new rental homes within 18 months of completion, despite the ban.
[18] -
Nonprofit housing groups in New York City
— They get 20 days to show interest and 70 days to bid before about 2,100 troubled buildings go to other buyers.
[25] -
Australian buyers with secure finances
— Many cities have more homes for sale than in years, and sellers are lowering their price hopes.
[16] -
Britons over 65 with no mortgage left
— Almost half say the cost of living has no effect on their holiday plans.
[31]
Who pays
-
Low-income UK families
— Almost two in three struggle to afford food, heating and clothes, and almost half have skipped meals or cut portions.
[6] -
Older Americans targeted by scammers
— The 6% who lost 100,000 dollars or more carried 70% of the losses, and some owe tax on the money taken.
[14] -
Households in Lithuania
— The sales tax on home heating rose from 9% to 21% in January, and prices are up 6.1% in a year.
[15] -
Title insurers in the US
— Waivers for refinancing become a permanent programme, though KBW says the hit to their earnings is limited for now.
[12] -
US homeowners in the Southeast
— Insurance there can cost four times the yearly property tax.
[21]
What nobody knows yet
Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.
-
01
What Healey's 'breathing space' for households will contain, and how much it will be worth.
He has promised it but also warned that money is short, and the Budget is not until Wednesday 28 October.
[1] [8] -
02
Whether a typical UK home's energy bill reaches 2,000 pounds a year from January.
The Guardian reports it as a warning, without saying who made the forecast.
[1] -
03
Whether the fall in confidence turns into less spending.
GfK measures how people feel. The Guardian reads the drop in big-purchase plans as a sign of cutbacks, but spending figures for October are not out yet.
[1] -
04
How many US borrowers the mortgage insurance test will reach, and when.
The Trump administration published a fact sheet on Thursday, but HousingWire found the order's final text missing from its website.
[12] No count of eligible borrowers has been published.[11] -
05
How much older Americans really lost to fraud in 2025.
Reported losses were about 3 billion dollars, but the FTC's own estimate of the true figure runs from 13.3 billion to 119.5 billion dollars, because most scams go unreported.
[14] -
06
Whether the US Senate will pass tax relief for fraud victims.
The US House of Representatives passed it 408 to 17 in September, and CNBC says it is uncertain whether the US Senate will act before this session ends.
[14] -
07
Whether the US Treasury's landlord rule changes much.
Big investors already bought 31.8% fewer homes this year, and the rule is a proposal open for 30 days of comment.
[17] -
08
How far Australian house prices fall.
Morgan Stanley's economists expect a fall of up to 15% from the peak with a bottom late in 2027, but that is a forecast.
[16]
New York City's council passed a law on Thursday giving nonprofit housing groups the first chance to buy about 2,100 run-down apartment buildings when they go up for sale.
Also true today
- US women's median hourly pay was 65% of men's in 1982. In 2025 it was 86%.
- The average US 30-year home loan rate fell this week for the first time in two months, to 7.32% from 7.40%.
- Germany cut its tax on motor fuel on 1 October, after fuel prices there rose 37.1% in a year.
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