Day Lila

Personal Money · Monday, 26 October 2026

01 Briefing what happened

Trump says US oil companies are making a fortune from the Iran war, as US drivers pay 4.29 dollars a gallon for petrol, up from 2.98 before it began

8 stories 17 sources

At a rally in Georgia, the US president said American oil firms are "making a freaking fortune" while drivers pay about 44% more for petrol and 69% more for diesel than before the war. The US pumps more oil than it uses, yet its drivers still pay what buyers abroad pay.

$4.29

for a gallon of regular petrol in the US, against $2.98 before the war

AAA's average as Trump spoke on Saturday [1]

$6.35

for a gallon of US diesel on Sunday, up from $3.75

it reached a record $6.53 on 22 September [6]

$140bn

more revenue for 38 US oil producers and refiners than a year earlier

counted by Oil & Gas Journal for April to June [1]

34.2%

rise in US petrol prices in the year to September

while prices overall rose 3.7% [2]

The lead story — what happened

  • At a rally in Georgia on Saturday, US President Donald Trump said American oil companies are "making a freaking fortune" from the war with Iran. [1]
  • He said the US oil and gas business is making hundreds of billions of dollars, and called oil prices "temporarily high". [1]
  • Regular petrol costs $4.29 a gallon on average, against $2.98 the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, says AAA, a US motoring group. [1]
  • Diesel, which runs the trucks and ships that carry goods to shops, cost $6.35 a gallon on Sunday, up from $3.75. [1]
  • Oil & Gas Journal, a trade magazine, counted 38 US oil producers and refiners whose revenue grew by about $140bn on a year earlier, in a report on April to June. [1]
  • The US produces more oil than it uses, yet the higher world price since the war has still reached its petrol pumps. [4]
  • Cutting US exports could lower prices at home, NPR reported, but US refineries are built for the heavier oil the country imports, not the light oil it pumps. [4]
  • Argus, a firm that tracks fuel prices, estimates that 60% of diesel's rise from about $3 to $6 a gallon comes from the Strait of Hormuz, and 40% from Russia's war with Ukraine. [7]
  • In September Trump said "let's not send out the diesel", and the American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry's lobby group, warned a ban would hurt buyers. [5]
  • Energy Secretary Chris Wright said an export ban would mean "more expensive gasoline right away", because refineries would cut how much they make. [5]
  • US prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, and petrol 34.2%. [2]
  • The US central bank raised its interest rate in September for the first time in three years, and the 30-year mortgage rate rose from just under 6% to 7.5% during the war. [2]
  • Trump spoke less than two weeks before the US midterm elections, and the White House did not immediately reply to Business Insider on Sunday. [1]
Price of a gallon in the US the day before the war on Iran, and now, from AAA. Diesel rose more than petrol.

Who is involved

  • Donald Trump

    the US president; he said US oil companies are "making a freaking fortune" from the war

  • AAA

    a US motoring group that tracks the average price at the pump; its figures show petrol up from $2.98 to $4.29

  • Chris Wright

    the US energy secretary and a former oilfield-services boss; he warned an export ban would raise petrol prices

  • American Petroleum Institute

    the US oil industry's lobby group; it fought the idea of a ban on diesel exports

How it unfolded

  1. Late Feb Petrol averages $2.98 a gallon the day before the US and Israel attack Iran [1]
  2. 22 Sep US diesel reaches a record $6.53 a gallon [6]
  3. Late Sep Trump backs a ban on diesel exports; the oil lobby says it would hurt buyers [5]
  4. 9 Oct Trump announces a deal with Russia's Vladimir Putin to release Russian diesel [7]
  5. 24 Oct Trump tells a Georgia rally "we're making a freaking fortune" [1]
  6. Early Nov The US midterm elections, less than two weeks later [1]

Where this points

The next test is the US midterm vote in early November, and analysts said in May that pump prices fall far more slowly than they rise, taking six months to two years even after a war ends. [1][8]

Signals on this beat

The bar and the word are our reading of how hard each one is pushing, and the arrow is where it is heading.

Fuel and power costing more High→

US drivers pay $4.29 for a gallon of petrol, up from $2.98 before the war. [1] Saudi Arabia will raise electricity and water tariffs on 1 January. [9]

Help that stops at a line Building↑

In England, a family with two small children can lose about 30,000 pounds of childcare help when one parent earns 1 pound over 100,000 pounds. [11] UK fathers who work for themselves get no paid paternity leave at all. [10] Saudi Arabia's new monthly payment goes to state staff, retirees, households on social security and some bereaved relatives. [9]

Big buyers setting prices Building↑

AI companies are paying very high prices for memory chips, so a basic phone in Karachi, Pakistan, now costs over 30,000 rupees. [14] The war's higher oil price has reached US pumps, though the US produces more oil than it uses. [4]

Budgets and votes due Building↑

The UK sets its taxes and spending in a Budget on Wednesday. [12] More than 100 Labour MPs want it to give fathers six weeks of paid leave. [10] US voters choose a new Congress in under two weeks, with prices a main worry. [1][2]

The rest of the day

7 more stories on this beat.

Each with its own sources. None of these is a link to the story above.

  1. 02

    Saudi Arabia pays cash before bills rise

    Saudi Arabia will pay 500 riyals, about $133, a month to state employees, military staff, retirees and households that qualify for social security. [9] King Salman ordered it on a proposal from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the official Saudi Press Agency reported on Sunday. [9] The payments start before electricity and water tariffs change on 1 January. [9] The kingdom also raised the wage a Saudi worker must earn to count fully towards a company's quota for hiring Saudis, to 5,000 riyals and later 6,000. [9]

    Why it matters — Families paid or pensioned by the state get a fixed sum before the new tariffs start. Private firms must pay Saudi staff more if they want them to count towards their hiring quota. [9]

  2. 03

    MPs press for longer paid paternity leave

    More than 100 Labour MPs have asked Prime Minister Andy Burnham to improve paternity leave in Wednesday's Budget. [10] UK fathers get two weeks at 194.32 pounds a week, or 90% of pay if that is lower, which is less than half the national living wage. [10] The MPs want six weeks at 90% of earnings, capped at 1,200 pounds a week, and the same for self-employed fathers, who now get nothing. [10] A government review of parental leave is due later this year. [10]

    Why it matters — Fathers whose employer adds nothing live on the legal minimum, and many builders and farm workers are self-employed, so they get nothing. Retailers such as M&S and Tesco already pay six weeks in full. [10]

  3. 04

    Earning just over 100,000 pounds costs families childcare

    UK earners lose 1 pound of their 12,570-pound tax-free allowance for every 2 pounds earned over 100,000 pounds. [11] So between 100,000 and 125,140 pounds a worker keeps only 38 pounds of every extra 100, says NFU Mutual, an insurer, counting national insurance. [11] In England a parent who goes 1 pound over the line also loses free nursery hours, tax-free childcare and child benefit. [11] AJ Bell, an investment platform, puts that at about 30,000 pounds for a family with two small children. [11]

    • Funded nursery hours£23,872 · 79%
    • Tax-free childcare£4,000 · 13%
    • Child benefit£2,337 · 8%
    What a family with a baby and a two-year-old loses when one parent earns 1 pound over 100,000 pounds, by AJ Bell's count.

    Why it matters — Official figures obtained by Quilter, a wealth manager, suggest 50,500 to 99,000 children missed funded childcare in 2025-26, about three times the count two years earlier. [11] The chancellor sets out the UK's tax plans in a Budget on Wednesday, 28 October. [12]

  4. 05

    Pension systems strain as people live longer

    Of 55 pension systems in the 2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index, published last week, 43 are in countries where women have fewer than 2.1 children on average, the level that keeps a population steady. [13] People in richer regions who reach 65 now live about 20 more years, 50.9% more than in 1950. [13] The report said very few systems, as they run now, are secure. [13] The US fund that pays retirement benefits is projected to run out of reserves in late 2032. [13]

    43 of 55

    pension systems in countries where women have fewer than 2.1 children

    Of the 55 pension systems in this year's Marsh CFA Institute index, 43 sit in countries whose birth rate is too low to keep the population steady.

    Why it matters — In a pay-as-you-go system, today's workers pay today's pensions, so fewer workers each carry more retirees. [13] Some funds are taking bigger investment risks to meet their promises. [13]

  5. 06

    Budget phones slip out of reach in Karachi

    Phone brands in Karachi, Pakistan's biggest city, have raised prices by 15,000 to 30,000 rupees a handset, Dawn, a Pakistani newspaper, reports. [14] A basic phone with 4GB of memory and 64GB of storage cost about 20,000 rupees last year and now costs more than 30,000. [14] Dealers and the phone makers' association blame memory chips, not taxes: AI companies are buying them at very high prices, and production has not kept up. [14] Many buyers are turning to used phones. [14]

    A phone with 4GB of memory and 64GB of storage in Karachi, in rupees. Shops now quote more than the second bar.

    Why it matters — In Pakistan people bank, work and reach government services on a phone, so the rise shuts some of them out. One father said a new phone for his daughter, just starting college, was now beyond his salary. [14]

  6. 07

    A college-level money class reaches US schools

    The College Board, which runs the college-level AP courses taught in US high schools, began AP Business with Personal Finance this school year. [15] Students who pass its exam can earn college credit, and the course covers running a business as well as saving and spending. [15] Thirty-nine US states now require a personal finance class to graduate, four more than two years ago, the Council for Economic Education says. [15] In Ohio, 26 school districts expect to offer the new course. [16]

    Why it matters — In class, students talk through what to do with pay from part-time jobs, such as putting it in a savings account that earns interest. [15] Passing can also cut what a degree costs, by earning some credits early. [15]

  7. 08

    Where a typical couple can still buy

    Zoopla, a UK property website, counted the share of two- and three-bedroom houses priced under 301,000 pounds, which Which?, a consumer group, reported on Sunday. [17] That is what a couple earning 53,000 pounds can buy with a 20% deposit and a loan of 4.5 times their income. [17] In Keith, Alloa, Kilwinning and Arbroath in Scotland, every such house listed was under that line. [17] In London fewer than 100 homes were, against an average asking price of 542,500 pounds. [17]

    Why it matters — Lenders cap a loan at a multiple of income, so where prices sit far above it a typical couple needs a large deposit. Mortgage rates have risen by about a percentage point this year, Which? says, which shrinks what that loan buys. [17]

02 Lesson why it matters

Why Americans pay war prices for oil pumped in Texas

Oil sells on one world market, so a US company charges Americans what a buyer abroad would pay, even when the war is far away.

The twist

A Texan pays the war-time price for oil pumped in Texas, because the oil company could sell that oil to a buyer abroad instead.

The picture

The war cut the oil passing through Hormuz, and the world price rose. US pumps charge that price, though the US pumps more oil than it uses.

How it works

  1. The war slows oil ships through the Strait of Hormuz
  2. The world has less oil, so the world price rises
  3. A Texas oil company can get that price from buyers abroad
  4. So American drivers pay what buyers abroad pay
  5. Drivers pay more, and the company keeps the extra

The same force, elsewhere today

Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

  • Karachi's budget phones

    Memory chip makers sell to whoever pays most, and AI companies pay very high prices, so a phone maker supplying Karachi pays that price too and passes it on.

Where you've seen this

A wheat farm

a farmer sells to the local mill at the world price, because a buyer abroad would pay that much

A seaside town

a landlord charges local tenants close to what holiday visitors would pay for the same flat

Power across a border

when a neighbouring country pays more for electricity, power flows there and the price at home rises to match

The catch

It holds only while the goods can actually move: a ban, a blocked pipe or a refinery that cannot use the oil can split the home price from the world price, at least for a while.

And the whole of it

A driver in Georgia, a phone buyer in Karachi and an AI company in California are bidding in the same markets without ever meeting. Each of them sees the price at the till, and none of them sees the buyer on the other side of the world who set it.

03 Truth what's really going on

What is really going on

The war with Iran has pushed up the world price of oil, and US oil companies sell at that price, so they earn more on every barrel while US drivers pay $4.29 a gallon instead of $2.98. [4][1] Donald Trump said it out loud at a rally in Georgia: the oil business is making a fortune, less than two weeks before Americans vote. [1]

Why it works on us — Trump said "we're making a freaking fortune". The word "we" sounds like the whole country, but the fortune goes to oil companies and the higher bill goes to drivers. [1]

Who gains

  • US oil producers and refiners — They sell at the war-raised world price, and 38 of them took in about $140bn more than a year earlier. [1]
  • Memory chip makers — AI companies are paying very high prices for memory chips, and phone makers have to match those prices to get chips. [14]
  • Saudi state staff, retirees and families on social security — They get 500 riyals a month, starting before the new electricity and water tariffs. [9]
  • Fathers at M&S and Tesco — Their employers pay six weeks of paternity leave in full, three times as long as the legal two weeks. [10]

Who pays

  • US drivers and truck firms — Petrol costs $4.29 a gallon against $2.98 before the war, and diesel $6.35 against $3.75. [1]
  • Phone buyers in Karachi — A basic phone went from about 20,000 rupees to over 30,000, and many now buy used phones instead. [14]
  • Self-employed fathers in the UK — They get no statutory paternity pay at all, and many builders and farm workers work for themselves. [10]
  • English families just over 100,000 pounds — One parent earning 1 pound over the line can cost a family with two small children about 30,000 pounds of childcare help. [11]
  • Workers in pay-as-you-go pension systems — Their contributions pay today's pensions, and each of them now carries more retirees than before. [13]

What nobody knows yet

Open questions from across today’s stories — ours included.

  • 01

    How long US pump prices stay this high.

    Trump calls oil prices temporarily high. [1] In October he said prices would soon return to the under-$2 levels he recalled seeing in Iowa before the war. [3] Analysts quoted in May said prices take six months to two years to fall back, even after a war ends. [8]

  • 02

    How much of the extra $140bn the oil companies keep as profit.

    The Oil & Gas Journal count is of revenue, the money coming in, not of what is left after costs. [1]

  • 03

    How much more Saudi households will pay for electricity and water from January.

    The report gives the size of the new payments, 500 riyals a month, but not the size of the tariff rise they are meant to cover. [9]

  • 04

    Whether Wednesday's UK Budget changes paternity pay.

    More than 100 Labour MPs have asked for six weeks at 90% of pay, and a government review of parental leave has not yet reported. [10]

  • 05

    How many English children lose funded childcare because a parent earns just over 100,000 pounds.

    The official figures obtained by Quilter give only a wide range, 50,500 to 99,000 children in 2025-26. [11]

  • 06

    Why phone prices in Karachi rose so far.

    Some shoppers blame taxes or the war's damage to trade. [14] The dealers' association says taxes barely changed, and the phone makers' group blames memory chips bought up by AI companies. [14]

  • 07

    What happens to US retirement payments when the trust fund's reserves run out.

    Its trustees project the reserves run out in the last quarter of 2032. [13] The report does not say what would replace them.

  • 08

    Whether UK mortgage rates rise again before buyers in the cheaper towns borrow.

    Rates rose about a percentage point this year, and in October some lenders cut while others raised. [17]

04 Hope carry this

Thirty-nine US states now require a personal finance class before students can graduate, four more than two years ago. This school year a new college-level course in business and personal finance began in US high schools.

Also true today

  • M&S and Tesco now give new fathers six weeks of paternity leave at full pay, three times as long as the legal two weeks. Five big UK retailers have improved paternity leave for nearly 650,000 workers.
  • In Keith, Alloa, Kilwinning and Arbroath, four Scottish towns, every two- and three-bedroom house listed was within reach of a couple earning 53,000 pounds with a 20% deposit, Zoopla found.

Across the beats