US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%

The stories

8 stories on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   US pay rises 3.1% in a year, the slowest since 2021 and behind prices, while employers' health insurance costs rise 6.4%

   3.1%

   rise in US wages and salaries in a year, the slowest since early 2021

   prices rose 3.6% over the same year [2]

   6.4%

   rise in what employers paid for workers' health insurance

   the fastest pace in two decades, economist Guy Berger says [1]

   $27,000

   cost of a family health plan through work in 2025

   about a year's pay for a full-time worker on $15 an hour [3]

   8.2%

   expected rise in health costs per worker in 2027

   the biggest since 2003, Marsh's survey of 1,800 employers finds [4]

   What happened

   • US wages and salaries rose 3.1% in the year to September, the slowest since early 2021. [2]
   • Prices rose 3.6% in the same year, so pay bought about 0.6% less. [2]
   • What employers paid for workers' health insurance rose 6.4% over the year. [1]
   • The figures come from the Employment Cost Index, which US officials released on Friday. [1]
   • It is a measure of what employers pay for the same jobs over time. [7]
   • It counts wages and salaries, and also benefits such as health cover. [7]
   • Counting wages and benefits together, the cost of employing a worker rose 3.4%. [2]
   • Benefit costs rose 3.9%, up from 3.6% a year earlier. [2]
   • Union workers' pay and benefits rose 4.3%, against 3.3% for other workers. [2]
   • Had those costs grown 3%, wages might rise 0.2 to 0.3 points faster, he worked out. [1]
   • He says workers now pay more of their premiums, the monthly bill for a plan. [1]
   • A family health plan through work cost about $27,000 in 2025, the New York Fed found. [3]
   • That is about a year's pay for a full-time worker earning $15 an hour. [3]
   • Firms it surveyed that faced dearer health plans raised pay by 3.8% on average. [3]
   • Without the dearer plans, they said they would have raised it by about 4.7%. [3]
   • Marsh, a firm that advises employers, expects health costs per worker to rise 8.2% in 2027. [4]
   • That would be the biggest rise since 2003. [4]
   • About two-thirds of large employers expect to raise workers' share of premiums next year. [4]
   • 59% of employers plan cost-cutting changes, such as higher deductibles that raise workers' own costs. [4]

   Wages and salaries3.1%

   Prices3.6%

   Employers' health insurance6.4%

   Who is involved

   The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US government's job-figures agency, publishes it four times a year. [7][2]

   Guy Berger, an economist at the Burning Glass Institute, says that pace matches a 20-year high. [1]

   The New York Fed is part of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. [3]

   • Guy Berger an economist at the Burning Glass Institute, a research group; he worked out what health costs take from raises
   • Workers with plans through work
   • US Bureau of Labor Statistics the US government's job-figures agency; it published the pay figures on Friday
   • Federal Reserve Bank of New York part of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank; it surveyed firms on health costs and pay
   • Marsh a firm that advises employers on benefits; it expects health costs per worker to rise 8.2% in 2027

   How it unfolded

   In September, US employers added only 29,000 jobs, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. [5]

   Prices have climbed faster since the war with Iran began, and pay has not kept up. [5]

   From early 2020 to late 2025, prices rose about 25%, and pay after prices barely moved. [6]

   1. 2003 the last rise this big
   2. 2027 8.2% expected
   3. This autumn workers pick plans
   4. 2027 bigger deductions
   5. Early 2021 the last time US pay grew this slowly [2]
   6. September US employers add only 29,000 jobs [5]
   7. 30 October pay figures show a 3.1% rise against 3.6% prices [1][2]
   8. 2027 health costs per worker expected to rise 8.2% [4]

   Why it matters

   So workers with health plans through their jobs are getting smaller raises. [3][1]

   Health costs are a big issue in Tuesday's US elections, beside fuel and power bills. [1]

   How it works

   The index measures total compensation: everything an employer spends on a worker, not just the wage. [7]

   Many firms facing dearer health plans answered with smaller raises, the New York Fed found. [3]

   The truth

   • What is really going on In the US, health cover is eating into pay: employers' spending on workers' health insurance rose 6.4% in the year to September, while wages rose 3.1% and prices 3.6%. [1][2]
   • Why it works on people A pay rise that goes up feels like a gain, even in a year when prices and health deductions went up faster.
   • Berger says the figures may still understate the squeeze, as plans also cover less. [1]
   • Nobody yet knows how much of 2027's 8.2% rise employers will pass on to workers. [4]
   • Who gains Hospitals, doctors and drug makers — Dearer hospital and doctor care and weight-loss drugs are what push employer health premiums up, insurers' figures show, the New York Fed says. [3]
   • Who pays US workers with health plans through work — Firms facing dearer plans gave raises about a point smaller than they otherwise would, the New York Fed found. [3]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How much of 2027's expected 8.2% rise in health costs employers will pass on to workers.

     Marsh says about two-thirds of large employers expect to raise workers' share of premiums, but not by how much. [4]

   Good news

   • Most people buying 2027 health plans on the US marketplace will still get a federal subsidy, and it rises when the price of the benchmark plan rises.
   • US union workers' pay and benefits rose 4.3% in the year to September, faster than prices.

   What comes next

   Many workers pick plans this autumn and will see bigger deductions from their pay in 2027. [4]

1. 02

   US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks

   What happened

   • Sign-up for 2027 marketplace health plans runs from 1 November to 15 January in most states. [8]
   • The marketplace sells health plans under the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare. [1]
   • Buyers using an agent on the federal site must now approve them with a one-time code. [8]
   • First-time buyers, movers and anyone paying $30 a month or less must also prove their identity. [8]
   • Agents new for 2027 cannot sign anyone up until February, after sign-up ends. [8]
   • Many legal immigrants, including refugees, can no longer get federal help with premiums. [8]
   • A 40-year-old's benchmark plan costs $704 a month in 2027, up from $624 in 2026. [1]

   Who is involved

   • First-time buyers
   • People who moved state
   • Plans of $30 or less

   How it unfolded

   The rules aim to stop fraud, including agents who sign people up without asking. [8]

   1. 1 November sign-up opens
   2. 15 January sign-up ends in most states
   3. Now new agents frozen out
   4. February new agents allowed

   Why it matters

   Joshua Brooker, who runs an insurance agency, fears up to 1 in 5 face extra checks. [8]

   He fears some will give up and go without cover. [8]

   How it works

   In health policy the subsidy is tied to a benchmark: an area's second-cheapest silver plan. [8]

   So when that plan's price rises, most buyers' help rises with it. [8]

   Why a stricter check also turns away honest people

   Credit risk analysts call them false approvals and false declines: every check lets some cheats through and stops some honest people.

   The twist

   Raising the bar on a check stops more cheats. It also stops more honest people, because the clues stay the same; only better information cuts both.

   The picture

   Strict checkmore honest stopped

   vsvs

   Loose checkmore cheats get in

   Step by step

   1. 1 A check uses clues to guess who is honest
   2. 2 Some honest people look risky, and some cheats look fine
   3. 3 So every check makes two kinds of mistake
   4. 4 Tighten it: fewer cheats pass, more honest people are stopped
   5. 5 Loosen it: more cheats pass, fewer honest people are stopped
   6. 6 Only a better clue cuts both mistakes at once

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • US health plan sign-up opens with ID checks

     The US government now makes buyers paying $30 a month or less prove who they are, which catches honest low-cost buyers as well as fake sign-ups.

   • UK pay-later checks block some shoppers

     Every purchase is now checked, and a non-profit found nearly half of the shoppers likely to fail had never missed a payment.

   • Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks

     People check a caller by whether they know their name and birthday, and once those details leak, the check lets a criminal through.

   • US officials press betting apps over VIP perks

     DraftKings' check for problem gambling let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP, and that miss is what Louisiana and Ohio are now looking at.

   Where you've seen this

   Airport security

   a stricter scan finds more banned items and pulls more innocent bags aside

   Spam filters

   a tighter filter catches more junk mail and sends more real emails to the junk folder

   Smoke alarms

   a more sensitive alarm misses fewer fires and goes off more often over burnt toast

   Criminal courts

   asking for more proof convicts fewer innocent people and frees more guilty ones

   The catch

   A better clue can cut both mistakes at once, and the firms and agencies running checks rarely publish how many honest people they turn away.

   And the whole of it

   Everyone in today's stories meets a check from one side: the health-plan buyer, the shopper, the bettor, the person answering the phone. The people who set each line choose which mistake to risk, and they are rarely the people it stops.

   The truth

   • What is really going on New checks on US health-plan sign-ups and UK pay-later loans now stop some honest people, while a US betting app's check let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP. [8][15][12]
   • A single person earning over $63,840 gets no help at all. [8]
   • Who gains Large insurance call centres — They keep big staffs all year, while agents new for 2027 are frozen out until February, a Florida broker says. [8]
   • Who pays Honest US buyers with no credit file or a new address — They can fail the identity questions even though they are real, a Georgetown researcher says. [8]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How fast US marketplace premiums are really rising for 2027.

     KFF puts the rise in the benchmark plan at 13%, while a KFF Health News report carried by NPR says premiums are set to rise 15%. [1][8]

   • Nobody knows yet

     How many honest buyers will give up at the new US sign-up identity checks.

     One agent fears up to 1 in 5 buyers who use agents will need extra checks; none of our sources gives an official estimate. [8]

1. 03

   Tuesday's senators face Social Security's 2032 gap

   What happened

   • Social Security, the US state pension, could cut retirement payments by 22% in 2032. [9]
   • Its retirement trust fund, a store of reserves, is projected to run out then. [9]
   • After that, the taxes coming in would cover about 78% of promised payments. [11]
   • The US Congress's budget office expects it sooner, in mid-2032, with a 26% cut. [9]
   • A 24% cut would take about $500 a month from the average payment, by one estimate. [9]
   • Senators elected on 3 November serve six years, so they will be in office in 2032. [10][11]
   • 35 Senate seats are being decided. [10]
   • Candidates in only 9 close races have said what they would do, CNBC found. [10]

   How it unfolded

   1. 3 November Senate vote
   2. 2032 fund runs out
   3. 2032 retirement fund alone
   4. 2034 if the funds are merged

   Why it matters

   In close Senate states, 81% of voters polled favour a candidate who plans to stop cuts. [10]

   How it works

   Workers and employers each pay a 6.2% tax on pay up to $184,500 to fund it. [11]

   In pension terms it is pay-as-you-go: once reserves are gone, payments shrink to what comes in. [11]

   The truth

   • A tax expert says payroll tax rises are very unlikely in the next couple of years. [9]
   • Who pays Future US pensioners — A 24% cut would take about $500 a month from the average Social Security payment, by one estimate. [9]
   • Nobody knows yet

     When Social Security's reserve actually runs out, and how deep the cut would be.

     Its trustees say late 2032 and 22%; the US Congress's budget office says mid-2032 and 26%. [9]

   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the US Congress fixes Social Security before the reserve runs out.

     A tax expert says payroll taxes are very unlikely to rise in the next couple of years, and candidates in only nine close Senate races have given plans. [9][10]

   What comes next

   Merging the retirement and disability funds would move the date to 2034, with a 17% cut. [9]

2. 04

   US officials press betting apps over VIP perks

   What happened

   • On 15 October, Louisiana's gaming board put off renewing the licence of DraftKings, a betting app. [12]
   • Instead it got a four-month permit while investigators look into press reports. [12]
   • A day after Louisiana's meeting, Ohio's regulators proposed a 48-hour rule. [12]
   • Apps could not send ads for 48 hours after a user sets limits. [12]
   • In ProPublica's test, betting offers arrived 30 minutes after the reporter set his limits. [12]
   • DraftKings says it "does not market to customers based on indicators of potential problem gaming." [12]

   Who is involved

   • Three US lawmakers
   • Betting firms

   How it unfolded

   ProPublica, a US newsroom, had a reporter bet like a problem gambler for weeks. [13]

   After he lost $1,800 in one night, DraftKings invited him to try for VIP status. [13]

   1. 15 October four-month permit
   2. Four months on investigators report
   3. Limits set the reporter limits his betting
   4. 30 minutes later a betting offer arrives
   5. Now a proposed rule
   6. Next more hearings and comments

   Why it matters

   Three US lawmakers have asked betting firms how many customers are VIPs, and what they earn. [12]

   How it works

   The industry calls its guardrails responsible gaming: limits and pauses a bettor can switch on. [12]

   DraftKings' check for problem gambling let a reporter who bet like a problem gambler become a VIP, and that miss is what Louisiana and Ohio are now looking at.

   The idea, in story 02: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →

   The truth

   • The lawmakers say VIP rewards push the most at-risk customers into debt and addiction. [12]
   • A former head of a problem-gambling council warns the rule could put people off setting limits. [12]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How many DraftKings customers are VIPs, and how much the company earns from them.

     Three US lawmakers have asked; DraftKings said it would respond once it had reviewed the letter. [12]

   What comes next

   Ohio's rule still faces more public hearings and comments before it can take effect. [12]

3. 05

   UK pay-later checks block some shoppers

   What happened

   • Since July, UK buy now, pay later lenders must check every purchase is affordable. [14][16]
   • Buy now, pay later splits a price into instalments, usually with no interest. [15]
   • Lenders such as Klarna, the UK's largest, now need the financial regulator's approval. [15]
   • The checks apply even to purchases under £50. [16]
   • A shopper who fails a check has the purchase blocked. [14]
   • In 2025, 8.5 million people made over 100 million such purchases, worth over £7bn, Experian says. [15]
   • Fair4All Finance, a non-profit, estimated 10% to 30% of users would fail the checks. [15]
   • Nearly half of those likely to be rejected had never missed a payment, it said. [15]

   Who is involved

   • Klarna the UK's largest pay-later lender
   • The FCA the UK's financial regulator

   Why it matters

   With Christmas near, more shoppers may meet the checks just as money is tight. [14]

   Debt charities see people using pay-later plans for food and energy bills. [15]

   How it works

   UK credit rules call for a 'proportionate' affordability check, run on every purchase. [16]

   Every purchase is now checked, and a non-profit found nearly half of the shoppers likely to fail had never missed a payment.

   The idea, in story 02: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →

   The truth

   • Klarna says "the new rules largely formalise what we already do." [15]
   • Fair4All warns that people turned away may turn to loan sharks. [15]
   • Who pays UK shoppers turned down for pay-later plans — Nearly half of those likely to be rejected had never missed a payment, and Fair4All warns some may turn to loan sharks. [15]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How many UK shoppers have been blocked by pay-later checks since July.

     Fair4All Finance estimated beforehand that 10% to 30% of users would fail; no count since July is in our sources. [15]

   Good news

   • Shoppers in the UK who split payments with pay-later lenders can now take a complaint to the Financial Ombudsman Service, a free independent referee. In 2025, 98.5% of pay-later balances were repaid on time.
4. 06

   UK gives no date for equal youth pay

   What happened

   • UK chancellor John Healey would not say when 18-to-20-year-olds will get the adult minimum wage. [17]
   • From April, workers aged 21 and over get at least £13.21 an hour. [18]
   • Workers aged 18 to 20 get at least £11.27 an hour. [18]
   • Both rates rise 3.9%, so the gap between them stays. [18]
   • On Sunday, Healey told the BBC: "It's a question of when." [17]
   • He said he must weigh jobs against wages for young people. [17]

   Who is involved

   • John Healey UK chancellor

   How it unfolded

   Labour's 2024 election manifesto promised to close that gap. [17]

   Why it matters

   More than 1 million 18-to-24-year-olds are not in work, education or training. [18]

   How it works

   Economists weigh a higher wage floor against the risk of fewer jobs for young workers. [17]

   The truth

   • Firms employing 18-to-20-year-olds can keep paying them less per hour while the gap stays. [18]
   • The promise to close the gap before the next election is now in doubt. [17]
   • Who gains UK employers of 18-to-20-year-olds — They can keep paying them £11.27 an hour, against £13.21 for staff aged 21 and over. [18]
   • Nobody knows yet

     When UK 18-to-20-year-olds will get the adult minimum wage.

     The chancellor said it is a question of when, and gave no date. [17]

5. 07

   Scammers use leaked birthdays to pose as banks

   What happened

   • Criminals call people posing as their bank, reading out their name, address and birthday. [19]
   • Knowing those details makes the call seem real. [19]
   • Birthdays are often stored when people sign up at shops or loyalty schemes. [19]
   • Customers' birthdays were taken in a recent hack of Asos, an online clothes shop. [19]
   • A scam investigator found 8 of 14 online shops asked for a birthday at sign-up. [19]
   • Shops need only card details and a delivery address, he says. [19]
   • Banks, lenders and tax offices use a birthday to match a person to official records. [19]

   Who is involved

   • Banks
   • Lenders
   • Tax offices

   Why it matters

   With a name and phone number, a birthday helps criminals steal identities, a security adviser says. [19]

   How it works

   Security experts call it a jigsaw: small leaked details joined into one full profile. [19]

   People check a caller by whether they know their name and birthday, and once those details leak, the check lets a criminal through.

   The idea, in story 02: Why a stricter check also turns away honest people →

   The truth

   • The investigator says shops keep asking because a birthday tells them a customer's age for adverts. [19]
   • Who gains Shops that ask for a birthday — A birthday tells them a customer's age for adverts, so they have little reason to stop asking, a scam investigator says. [19]
6. 08

   More Americans borrow against their homes

   What happened

   • More than 1 million Americans borrowed against their homes in the first half of 2026. [20]
   • That was the most for a first half since 2022, says data firm Intercontinental Exchange. [20]
   • US homeowners hold a record $35.8 trillion in home equity: the value they own outright. [20]
   • Cash-out refinancing, replacing a mortgage and taking cash, rose 12% in a year. [20]
   • Lines of credit with a rate that moves are still the most used way to borrow. [20]
   • This autumn's US interest rate rise made such borrowing dearer, at 7% to 8.5%. [20]

   How it unfolded

   1. 2022 last time this many
   2. 2026 more than 1 million

   Why it matters

   Families use it to pay off dearer debts, pay for college or cover living costs. [20]

   How it works

   Even so, it costs less than most other borrowing, says the Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist. [20]

   The truth

   • Each rise in rates makes a moving-rate line of credit cost more to repay. [20]