Floods force evacuations across the US Southwest, and a Colorado river is forecast to top its 1911 record

The stories

12 stories on this beat today.

Every story told the same way: what happened, who is involved, why it matters, how it works, the truth and the good news.

1. 01

   Floods force evacuations across the US Southwest, and a Colorado river is forecast to top its 1911 record

   17.8 feet

   the San Juan's record crest at Pagosa Springs, set in a 1911 flood

   On Sunday it was forecast to pass 20 feet. [1]

   15.02 feet

   the river's crest at Pagosa Springs on 23 October

   Major flooding there starts at 12.6 feet. [2]

   4 inches

   of rain forecast across the region from Saturday to Monday

   Arizona was getting two or three months of rain in days. [1]

   What happened

   • Heavy rain forced people from their homes across the US Southwest on Sunday. [1]
   • In Pagosa Springs, Colorado, the San Juan River was forecast to crest above 20 feet. [1]
   • Its record is 17.8 feet, from a 1911 flood that wiped out most of the town. [1]
   • The county sheriff's office called it "a potentially catastrophic flood event". [1]
   • In Sedona, Arizona, officials told people near Oak Creek to leave at once. [1]
   • Floodwaters rose fast and trapped several people in their homes there. [1]
   • Arizona's governor, Katie Hobbs, said state air crews were lifting people from rooftops. [1]
   • Nearly 20 homes needed emergency help to move their people out, Yavapai County said. [1]
   • Aaron Hardin, a forecaster, said Arizona was "getting two or three months of rain" in days. [1]
   • Up to 4 inches of rain could fall from Saturday to Monday, the weather service said. [1]
   • Flood warnings or watches cover nearly all of Arizona and parts of four nearby states. [1]
   • Pagosa Springs had only just lifted its evacuation order from last week's flood. [1]
   • It ordered people out again on Saturday night, with a crest of 21.9 feet forecast. [1]
   • The highway into town was closed to traffic heading in. [1]
   • Officials told people to keep out of the San Juan after sewage was released into it. [1]
   • A coffee shop owner feared the town's one bridge would wash out, stopping food and fuel. [1]

   May 20256.53 feet

   Oct 202512.82 feet

   Oct 202615.02 feet

   1911 record17.8 feet

   Who is involved

   • Katie Hobbs governor of Arizona; she said state air crews were lifting people from rooftops
   • Archuleta County Sheriff's Office the police for the county around Pagosa Springs; it warned of a potentially catastrophic flood
   • US National Weather Service the US government's weather forecasters; it put flood warnings over nearly all of Arizona
   • Yavapai County the county around Sedona; it said nearly 20 homes needed help to get people out

   How it unfolded

   A string of storms has brought a deadly autumn of soaking rain to the region. [3]

   Last month the San Juan flooded Pagosa Springs and towns downstream in New Mexico and Utah. [4]

   In New Mexico those floods killed at least 2 people. [4]

   On the Pagosa Springs gauge, the river peaked at 6.53 feet in May 2025. [2]

   It reached 12.82 feet in October 2025 and 15.02 feet on 23 October 2026. [2]

   The weather service counts anything above 12.6 feet there as major flooding. [2]

   1. Last week flood, then order lifted
   2. Saturday night people ordered out again
   3. 23 Oct the San Juan crests at 15.02 feet at Pagosa Springs [2]
   4. 26 Oct floods reach Bluff, Utah, downstream [4]
   5. Sat 31 Oct Pagosa Springs orders people out again [1]
   6. Sun 1 Nov Sedona evacuates homes along Oak Creek [1]
   7. Mon 2 Nov rain forecast to continue [1]

   Why it matters

   A forecaster said little rain is needed now "because of how saturated" the ground is. [3]

   Bluff's mayor said last month: "It's the second flood that really gets you." [4]

   So each new storm lands on towns still cleaning up from the last one. [1][4]

   The truth

   • What is really going on In Arizona and Colorado, new rain is falling on ground already soaked by an autumn of storms, so Pagosa Springs is flooding again days after it lifted its last evacuation order. [1][3]
   • Why it works on people A record from 1911 makes a forecast feel like a fact, but the 20-foot crest was a forecast, and the river stood at about 14 feet at sundown. [1]
   • Federal disaster aid for New Mexico needs the state to pay a quarter of the cost. [4]
   • New Mexico's governor put the cost of rebuilding at up to $300 million. [4]
   • By sundown on Sunday the river at Pagosa Springs stood at about 14 feet. [1]
   • Whether it then passed the 1911 record overnight was not yet known. [1]
   • Who pays People and businesses in Pagosa Springs — They were ordered out again days after returning, and the highway into town was shut. [1]
   • Who pays New Mexico's state budget — Federal disaster aid comes only if New Mexico pays a quarter of the bill for its own repairs. [4]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether the San Juan passed its 1911 record at Pagosa Springs overnight.

     The crest was forecast above 20 feet for late Sunday, and the river had reached about 14 feet by sundown. [1]

   • Nobody knows yet

     What this round of floods will cost Arizona and Colorado.

     No estimate has been given yet; for last month's floods New Mexico's governor put rebuilding at up to $300 million. [4]

   Good news

   • No injuries or deaths had been reported there by Sunday. [1]
   • Rescue crews lifted people from flooded homes in Sedona, Arizona, and no injuries or deaths had been reported there by Sunday.

   What comes next

   The weather service expected the rain to keep falling through Monday. [1]

1. 02

   A second cyclone nears India's Andhra coast

   What happened

   • Cyclone Murasu was heading for Andhra Pradesh, a state on India's east coast. [5]
   • It is the second cyclone to hit the state in less than a week. [5]
   • India's weather office expected landfall near the town of Ongole early on 3 November. [5]
   • Its winds were forecast at 100 to 120 kilometres an hour. [5]
   • The state sent 6 national and 7 state disaster teams to the coast. [5]
   • Two districts, NTR and Guntur, shut schools and colleges on Monday. [5]

   How it unfolded

   Cyclone Arnab hit the same coast on 28 October and killed at least three people. [6]

   Arnab damaged 79,000 acres of crops and cut power across Konaseema district. [6]

   1. 28 Oct Cyclone Arnab crosses the coast
   2. 3 Nov Murasu expected near Ongole

   Why it matters

   Extremely heavy rain was expected in places across six districts on Monday. [5]

   Arnab reached 135 kilometres an hour at landfall, so Murasu is forecast to be weaker. [5][6]

   The truth

   • What is really going on On India's east coast, Andhra Pradesh is bracing for its second cyclone in less than a week. [5]
   • How strong Murasu gets is still a forecast: it "may intensify", the weather office said. [5]
   • Who pays Andhra Pradesh's coast — Arnab damaged 79,000 acres of crops last week, and Murasu is due within days. [5][6]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How strong Cyclone Murasu will be when it reaches land.

     India's weather office said it may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm before landfall early on 3 November. [5]

1. 03

   A UN report says lost ice will not come back

   What happened

   • A UN report says Earth's ice faces lasting damage if warming goes past 1.5C. [7]
   • The planet has warmed by 1.3C since before the industrial age. [7]
   • Today's policies lead to about 2.8C of warming, the report found. [7]
   • Then the Hindu Kush Himalayas would keep 41% of their glacier ice. [7]
   • Held to 1.5C, 83% would remain. [7]
   • The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica melt about 6 times faster than in the 1990s. [7]

   Who is involved

   The frozen parts of Earth, its ice and snow, are called the cryosphere. [7]

   80 scientists wrote it for the UN Environment Programme and an ice research group. [7]

   Why it matters

   Those Himalayan glaciers supply water to nearly a quarter of humanity. [7]

   How it works

   Glaciologist James Kirkham says ice reacts fast to warming but takes centuries to recover. [7]

   Why one creek carries the rain of a whole valley

   Hydrologists call the land that drains into a river its catchment: rain anywhere on it runs into the same channel and reaches the town below.

   The twist

   A river town is flooded by the rain on every slope above it, so a storm over mountains miles away can fill its streets.

   The picture

   Rain on the mountainsfalls

   ↓→

   San Juan Rivercollects

   ↓→

   Pagosa Springsfloods

   Step by step

   1. 1 Rain falls across a whole valley and the mountains around it
   2. 2 Water runs downhill, and the slopes lead to the same low channel
   3. 3 That channel, a creek or a river, gathers the rain of all the land above it
   4. 4 So the river at a town carries rain that fell miles away
   5. 5 Soaked ground lets more of each storm run off into the channel

   The same force, elsewhere today

   Where this chain is also running, in today's other stories.

   • The UN report on ice

     The Himalayan glaciers melt into rivers, and those rivers carry the mountains' water down to nearly a quarter of humanity.

   Where you've seen this

   A house roof

   rain on the whole roof leaves through one downpipe, so the downpipe overflows first

   City streets

   every gutter on a hill feeds the drain at the bottom, which floods before the ones above it

   A reservoir

   it fills from all the land that drains into it, so dam keepers measure the rain on all of that land

   The catch

   Rock, soil and plants decide how much rain reaches the river, so two catchments of the same size can flood very differently.

   And the whole of it

   Pagosa Springs, Farmington and Bluff sit on one river, so rain on Colorado's mountains reaches each town in turn. Each town sees the water in its own streets, and none of them sees all the land that sent it.

   The truth

   • Rising seas from melting ice sheets threaten hundreds of millions of people, it says. [7]
   • Who pays Hundreds of millions of people near coasts — Melting ice sheets raise the sea, and the UN report says much of that loss is permanent. [7]
   • Nobody knows yet

     How the carbon the UN ice report wants removed from the air would be taken out.

     The report says warming should be brought back below 1C by 2150 by removing carbon; the account of it we read does not say how, or who would pay. [7]

   What comes next

   It comes as diplomats gather in Turkey for COP31, this year's UN climate summit. [7]

1. 04

   A study weighs people and warming in a cyclone flood

   What happened

   • A new study looked at Cyclone Idai, which flooded Mozambique in 2019. [8]
   • It asked why so many people were in the flood's path. [8]
   • They modelled the flood as it was, and in a world without changes since 1975. [8]
   • 84% of the people exposed were due to climate and population change together. [8]
   • Population change alone explained 80%, and climate change alone 9%. [8]
   • More people now live where Idai's water spread. [8]
   • Climate change made the flood wider and deeper. [8]

   Who is involved

   Its authors work at Deltares, a research institute in Delft, the Netherlands, and at universities. [8]

   • Deltares a research institute in Delft, the Netherlands

   Why it matters

   Climate change's share fell unevenly between richer and poorer groups, the study found. [8]

   How it works

   Scientists call this attribution: comparing the real event with a world that did not change. [8]

   The truth

   • One total for a whole area hides who carries the extra flooding, the authors write. [8]
2. 05

   Germany narrows its nuclear waste search to 5%

   What happened

   • BGE, Germany's nuclear waste agency, has cut its search to 5% of the country. [9]
   • The places still in the running lie in 11 of Germany's 16 states. [9]
   • The store would lie about 400 metres underground, in clay, granite or rock salt. [9]

   How it unfolded

   Germany decided to quit nuclear power in 2011, and shut its last plant in 2023. [9]

   Its waste sits in temporary stores, many at 19 old plants being taken apart. [9]

   Finland has approved the world's first such store, after about 40 years of work. [9]

   1. 2011 decides to quit nuclear power
   2. 2023 last plant shut

   Why it matters

   The search and the temporary stores cost about 1.4 billion euros a year. [9]

   The finished store may cost about 14 billion euros, experts estimate. [9]

   How it works

   Engineers want about 100 metres of rock around it, as a natural barrier. [9]

   Germany requires the store to stay safe for 1 million years, the agency says. [9]

   The truth

   • Few towns are likely to want the store, so building trust is part of BGE's job. [9]
   • Who pays Germany — Searching for a site and keeping waste in temporary stores costs about 1.4 billion euros a year. [9]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Where Germany's nuclear waste store will go.

     Only 5% of the country is still being studied, and the target for choosing a site is 2050. [9]

   What comes next

   Germany aims to pick a site by 2050, and its minister wants to speed that up. [9]

3. 06

   Britain's biggest substation planned beside a data centre

   What happened

   • National Grid, the power network company, agreed to buy 29.5 hectares on Teesside, England. [10]
   • It plans to build Britain's biggest electricity substation there. [10]
   • The substation could feed a huge planned AI data centre next door. [10]
   • The data centre's plans cover nearly 500,000 square metres. [10]
   • Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen said the site could get up to 3.2 gigawatts. [10]

   Who is involved

   The land belongs to Teesworks, a local partnership of public bodies and private firms. [10]

   Why it matters

   Houchen said "the biggest problem is getting enough power to the site quickly". [10]

   Britain's government last week called data centres as basic as railways and power lines. [10]

   The truth

   • Data centre plans face protests, from Auchtertool near Edinburgh to Brick Lane in London. [10]
   • Who gains Teesside and its planned data centre — A substation of up to 3.2 gigawatts lets the area compete for data centres, its mayor said. [10]

   What comes next

   Balfour Beatty, a building firm, is reported to be in line to build it. [10]

4. 07

   France sells diesel it bought before the war

   What happened

   • France has begun selling diesel from its emergency stocks, and pump prices fell. [11]
   • In mid-October France's government released 10 million barrels of diesel from those stocks. [11]
   • It is sold at 0.28 euros a litre, against 1.1 euros on average in mid-October. [11]
   • French diesel averaged 2.37 euros a litre on Saturday; TotalEnergies' Access stations charged 2.15. [11]
   • Leclerc, a supermarket chain, cut 21 cents a litre at about 742 stations. [11]

   How it unfolded

   That diesel was bought before the war in the Middle East. [11]

   Why it matters

   TotalEnergies, a French oil company, cut prices before the stored diesel was even delivered. [11]

   How it works

   TotalEnergies says it passes the stocks on "at their historic cost": the price first paid. [11]

   The truth

   • Leclerc says its price still moves with the market; only the 21-cent cut is fixed. [11]
   • Who gains Drivers buying diesel in France — Stocks bought before the war sell at 0.28 euros a litre, and Leclerc cut 21 cents a litre at its pumps. [11]

   Good news

   • Cooperative U, another supermarket chain, said it would cut 21 cents a litre too. [11]
   • Diesel got cheaper at French pumps as TotalEnergies and two supermarket chains passed on emergency stocks bought before the war, with Leclerc cutting 21 cents a litre.
5. 08

   A US-backed group plans a gas hub for Pakistan

   What happened

   • A US-backed group of firms proposed a $4.4 billion gas project in Pakistan. [12]
   • It covers imports of liquefied natural gas, storage, a pipeline and sales. [12]
   • Pakistan has no storage for this gas today. [12]
   • Phase one is a terminal at Port Qasim with four tanks, costing $1.7 billion. [12]
   • Phase two is a 1,100km pipeline to carry the gas up the country. [12]

   Who is involved

   • Lucky Group
   • QatarEnergy

   How it unfolded

   An earlier group, Lucky Group with QatarEnergy, dropped a similar plan, citing policy changes. [12]

   1. Done the port agrees to the site
   2. Next a provisional licence

   Why it matters

   The port lies outside the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's key energy shipping routes. [12]

   How it works

   So its supply depends entirely on shipments and on world prices. [12]

   The truth

   • No investor has made a binding commitment yet. [12]
   • Who gains The US firms in Pakistan's gas group — US agencies may help pay for the project, through planning money, loans and export guarantees. [12]
   • Nobody knows yet

     Whether Pakistan's US-backed gas hub will be built.

     No investor has made a binding commitment, and the final cost waits on construction contracts. [12]

   What comes next

   It reportedly has the port's consent, and has applied for a licence from the gas regulator. [12]

6. 09

   Energy firms gather in Abu Dhabi for Adipec

   What happened

   • Adipec, a yearly oil and gas show in Abu Dhabi, runs from 2 to 5 November. [13]
   • Organisers expect a record 2,260 exhibiting companies and over 239,000 visitors. [13]
   • More than 40 government ministers are due to attend. [13]
   • Asia is sending its largest group yet: 353 companies. [13]

   How it unfolded

   Before the war, nearly 90% of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia. [13]

   China alone took 38%, US government figures show. [13]

   Why it matters

   Asian buyers can talk supply security with Gulf producers there, after this year's shipping disruption. [13]

   In a show survey, 81% of energy bosses expect AI to need more power than forecast. [13]

   The truth

   • The deal totals are the organisers' own count: $53 billion at last year's show. [13]
   • Who gains Gulf oil and gas producers — Asian buyers, sending a record 353 companies to Adipec, get to talk supply security with them after the Hormuz disruption. [13]

   What comes next

   The UAE's energy minister meets ministers from Germany, Turkey and Egypt on energy security. [13]

7. 10

   Dubai's utility teams up with Shanghai Electric

   What happened

   • Dewa, Dubai's state power and water utility, signed a deal with China's Shanghai Electric. [14]
   • The two will look for energy and water projects abroad together. [14]
   • Projects could include solar, wind, batteries, water plants and green hydrogen. [14]

   Who is involved

   • Dewa Dubai's power and water utility
   • Shanghai Electric Chinese power equipment maker

   How it unfolded

   Dewa set up its overseas arm, Dewa International, in June. [14]

   The pair already built the fourth phase of Dubai's huge solar park together. [14]

   1. June Dewa International set up
   2. Now deal with Shanghai Electric

   Why it matters

   Dewa expects world spending on energy and water to pass $20 trillion by 2035. [14]

   The truth

   • The deal names no projects, money or dates yet. [14]
   • Nobody knows yet

     What Dewa and Shanghai Electric will actually build together.

     Their agreement names no projects, investment or dates. [14]

8. 11

   Xiaomi delivers 50,000 electric cars in a month

   What happened

   • Xiaomi, a Chinese phone maker that also makes electric cars, delivered over 50,000 in October. [15]
   • It had passed 30,000 in August and 40,000 in September. [15]
   • It has delivered about 336,000 cars in the first ten months. [15]
   • Its goal for 2026 is 550,000 cars. [15]

   Why it matters

   That puts it at about 61% of its yearly goal, with two months left. [15]

   The truth

   • These are Xiaomi's own figures, reported by the company on Sunday. [15]

   Good news

   • That was its best month this year. [15]
   • Xiaomi delivered more than 50,000 electric cars in October, its best month of the year.
9. 12

   Public fleets get an easier way to buy electric lorries

   What happened

   • Peterbilt, a US lorry maker, added its electric lorries to a shared public buying contract. [16]
   • More than 50,000 public, school and charity bodies in the US and Canada can use it. [16]
   • The contract now runs until July 2028. [16]
   • Prices and terms for Peterbilt's whole range are agreed in advance. [16]

   Who is involved

   The contract is with Sourcewell, a government agency that runs tenders for public bodies. [16]

   Why it matters

   A council can then buy an electric lorry without a long tender of its own. [16]

   How it works

   Public buyers must usually invite open bids, so spending taxpayers' money stays fair. [16]