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Sunday, 25 October 2026

Dear fuel from the Iran war reaches food banks as Britain's Budget and US vote near

266 stories · 12 beats · 4 signals

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Dearer fuel from the Iran war High ↑ · Day 5
High↑
Seen in 3 of the 12 beats
  • Food

    US diesel averaged $6.28 a gallon last week. A Detroit charity delivers 1,300 food boxes a month to older people who can no longer travel to collect food, up from 800 at the start of the year.

  • Finance

    Prices in Pakistan rose 10.2% in July to September, against 4.3% a year earlier, as imported oil cost more. Its central bank, with its rate at 11.5%, meets on Monday.

  • Climate

    Oil leaking from a tanker hit in Iran's attacks on ships has shut beaches in three of the seven United Arab Emirates. By Wednesday the slick stretched more than 35 km from the tanker.

What is going on

The war keeps diesel dear, and it raises the price of the oil that countries such as Pakistan must import. Those costs pass into shop prices and charities' running costs, and they land last on older people on low incomes and on Pakistani families whose prices rose 10.2%.

Where it is heading

The next test is the State Bank of Pakistan's rate decision on Monday, where a senior banker told Dawn a rise of a full percentage point is needed.

Britain's Budget short of money Building ↑
Building↑
Seen in 3 of the 12 beats
  • Money

    John Healey, the UK chancellor, promised 1bn pounds more for social and affordable homes in England before Wednesday's Budget. The BBC counts at most 3.5bn pounds a year from the three smaller taxes he could raise.

  • Finance

    UK Finance, the lobby group for banks, sent Healey figures saying London taxes a big bank at 46.2%, more than Frankfurt, Dublin or New York. The Guardian's own sums put Paris higher, at 51.6% to 57.3%.

  • Food

    Restaurant owners blame the UK's 20% VAT, a sales tax, on restaurant meals, against about 12% on average in Europe, as London restaurants open in the Gulf. Chefs want the Budget to cut it.

What is going on

Healey has kept income tax, National Insurance and VAT rates off limits, so banks and restaurants each argue that the smaller taxes left should not land on them. Whatever he raises must help pay for defence and for energy help for households, which the Guardian puts at perhaps 1.5bn pounds.

Where it is heading

The next test is the Budget on Wednesday 28 October, and which taxes it names to pay for the homes.

AI firms buying all the computing High ↑
High↑
Seen in 2 of the 12 beats
  • Tech

    Amazon's boss said its cloud computers are largely sold out through 2027 and much of 2028. In China, workshops strip new RTX 5090 gaming cards, which are not officially sold there, and rebuild them for AI servers.

  • Finance

    Nvidia, whose chips run most AI, has promised to cover $36 billion of deals for smaller AI cloud firms if they fail. Shares in three of them, CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, are down at least 30% this month.

What is going on

AI firms rent all the computing Amazon and others can build, and the smaller firms renting it out lean on Nvidia's promise to cover their deals. Their shareholders pay first as doubts grow about whether AI earns enough, and neighbours of new data centres point to higher power bills, water use and noise.

Where it is heading

The next test is Amazon's results on 29 October, which will show whether its cloud sales match a boss who calls it sold out into 2028.

Decisions timed to the US vote Building ↑ · Day 2
Building↑
Seen in 4 of the 12 beats
  • Food

    The US offered to back $5 billion of loans for small meat, poultry and seafood plants 11 days before the vote, but the money still waits on the US Congress. A US farm official said $8 billion of fuel aid will arrive after the vote.

  • Finance

    The US central bank decides on interest rates on Wednesday, six days before the vote, and futures prices point to no change.

  • Tech

    Asked whom to vote for in nearly 500 races, Grok 4.7, Elon Musk's AI model, picked the Republican in 92% of its answers. OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol picked the Democrat in 97%.

  • World

    Former president Barack Obama headlined a rally in Detroit on Michigan's first day of early voting. Donald Trump voted early in Florida.

What is going on

The US government is promising help before the vote and paying it after: the fuel aid for farmers probably comes at the end of the year. Meat plants get the loan announcement now, and the loan money only if Congress provides it.

Where it is heading

The next test is the vote on 3 November, which decides who controls the US Congress that must fund the loans.

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