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Sunday, 1 November 2026

Two days before the US vote, oil nears $118 and states put taxes on the ballot

205 stories · 12 beats · 4 signals

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Signals

Fuel kept dear by the Iran war High ↑ · Day 12
High↑
Seen in 3 of the 12 beats
  • World

    Gulf officials say US strikes on Iran could resume on 4 November, while Iran's envoys talk in Qatar. Iran's foreign minister offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, on Iran's terms.

  • Finance

    Brent, the world's main oil price, closed Friday at $117.64 a barrel, its highest since April. Iranian strikes took 12.8 million tonnes a year of Qatar's gas exports offline.

  • Money

    US petrol averaged $4.20 a gallon on Friday, nearly 40% more than a year ago. Fuel is heading for its dearest US election day.

What is going on

The war keeps oil dear, and the cost moves down the chain to whoever buys fuel. Drivers pay it at the pump, and dearer crude helped push South Korea's imports up 36%.

Where it is heading

The next test is 4 November, the earliest date Gulf officials gave for new US strikes on Iran.

Money and taxes on Tuesday's US ballot High ↑
High↑
Seen in 4 of the 12 beats
  • World

    50 million Americans have already voted early. The Texas Senate race has become the costliest ever.

  • Money

    Florida's Amendment 3 would cut the yearly tax on lived-in homes by about $1,000 and take $11.8 billion a year from local budgets. California votes on a one-time 5% tax on about 200 billionaires.

  • Food

    Food and farm businesses have given $75.8 million to US candidates this cycle. One farmers' group has spent $2.9 million on attack ads before the vote.

  • Tech

    Almost $200 billion of US data-centre projects were held up by local opposition in the first half of 2026. Data centres have become an issue in the vote.

What is going on

Farm groups and others are spending heavily on who sits in Congress, while voters in several states decide taxes themselves. In Florida, renters and businesses get no cut, and an economist says businesses and landlords would almost certainly pay more to fill the $11.8 billion gap in local budgets.

Where it is heading

The vote on Tuesday, 3 November, decides Congress and whether Florida's cut reaches the 60% it needs to pass.

Who pays for building AI Building ↑
Building↑
Seen in 2 of the 12 beats
  • Finance

    South Korea's chip sales abroad rose 259.4% in October, as companies building AI data centres paid high prices for memory. Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Alphabet lost about a quarter of its value as AI costs worried investors.

  • Tech

    OpenAI has secured about $11 billion of the $20 billion it now wants. France's lower house voted 11 to 10 to tax firms about 6 US cents for each gigabyte they send to French users.

What is going on

Companies building AI data centres pay high prices for memory chips, and South Korea's chipmakers gain. Buyers of phones and PCs pay part of it, because memory bought for AI has pushed up their prices.

Where it is heading

The next test is the Bank of Korea's interest-rate decision on 26 November, with Korean prices up 2.9% in September against its 2% target.

Harm the public learned of late Building ↑
Building↑
Seen in 3 of the 12 beats
  • Mind & body

    Alder Hey, a children's hospital in Liverpool, admitted 24 failures led to the death of 21-month-old Eleanor Aldred-Owen. An abnormal chest X-ray was never flagged to her ward.

  • Food

    US officials found the farm behind a 2024 lettuce outbreak but did not name it for over a year. Government lawyers have now opened the way for the FDA, the US food regulator, to name the firms behind outbreaks.

  • Biotech

    One of four boys in a gene-editing trial for Duchenne muscular dystrophy died after a high dose. HuidaGene, the Shanghai company that ran it, told the public about a year after the death.

What is going on

Each time, the facts reached the people at risk late, from an X-ray a ward never saw to a trial death told a year on. Families pay first, and in Liverpool and Kettering it is parents who push hospitals for answers.

Where it is heading

The next test is whether the Kettering families get the public inquiry they began campaigning for on Friday.

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