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Tuesday, 13 October 2026

13 Oct · Biotech · In brief

Biotech · Tuesday, 13 October 2026

Biotech, in brief

14 stories · 19 sources

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What is moving · 1 of 4

Best sellers running out of time

High ↑

Drug sales worth more than $500 billion could face cheaper copies between 2026 and 2032, says Evaluate, a firm that tracks the drug industry. [6] Merck, whose cancer drug Keytruda loses patent protection in 2028, has spent $30.9 billion on six deals since 2024. [6] Merck also paid $1.3 billion up front in 2024 for remigromig, the eye drug whose full results disappointed this weekend. [8]

What is moving · 2 of 4

Results announced without numbers

Building →

Bristol Myers said both of its trials passed but showed no figures. [2] Argenx, a drug company based in Amsterdam, shared a single statistic when it said its celiac drug passed last week. [11] Merck's eye drug looked like a win last month, and its full data this weekend looked weaker. [8]

What is moving · 3 of 4

Money for young drug companies

Building ↑

Aspen Neuroscience, which grows brain cells for Parkinson's disease, filed to sell shares while warning it has less than a year of cash. [15] Two dozen biotech companies have listed on US stock markets this year, the fastest pace since 2021. [15] Almost a third of the lab space around Boston stands empty after builders bet on endless demand. [17]

What is moving · 4 of 4

Health services short of room

Steady ↑

In Wales, one woman was told she could wait up to two years for complex endometriosis surgery. [18] A specialist centre in Cardiff may lose its accreditation. [18] Northern Ireland's over-65s are projected to grow by almost 45% in 25 years, and its commissioner for older people says there is no long-term plan. [19]

Bristol Myers Squibb's lung-scarring drug passes its final trial, but only the lower of its two doses worked

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Bristol Myers Squibb, one of the biggest US drugmakers, said on Monday that its drug admilparant passed a final-stage trial in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. [1][2]

RYZ101 passed at a planned early look at the trial's results. [1][2]

Who is involved

Who is involved

Why it matters

The next test is the full data: how large the 60 mg benefit is, and what the liver results show, will decide how regulators read a win that came from the smaller dose. [1][2]

How it works

Why two drugs tested in separate trials cannot be ranked by their numbers

How it works

Each trial measures its drug against its own dummy group in its own patients, so two trials' numbers can differ for reasons that have nothing to do with the drugs.

How it works · step 1 of 6

A trial gives a drug to one group of patients and a dummy to another

How it works · step 2 of 6

Its result is the gap between those two groups, in those patients

How it works · step 3 of 6

Another trial has different patients, a different dummy group and different measures

How it works · step 4 of 6

Even the same trial run twice lands in different places by chance

How it works · step 5 of 6

So two trials' numbers side by side mix the drugs up with the trials

How it works · step 6 of 6

Only a trial that gives both drugs to one set of patients can rank them

The twist

Roche ran two eye trials designed to be identical, and one passed while the other failed.

The twist

If one drug can score differently in twin trials, two drugs in two different trials cannot be ranked by their scores.

The picture

Roche built its two vamikibart trials to be the same, with the same drug. One met its main goal and one did not.

Seen the same day

Tezspire's 70% remission

The figure beats what Dupixent showed, but each number is a gap against its own dummy group, in its own patients, so the step that would rank them, one shared trial, was never taken.

Seen the same day

First Tracks' celiac drug

An analyst says its results compare well with Teva's rival, but the two drugs were tested in different trials on different people, so the ranking rests on the trials as much as the drugs.

Seen the same day

Roche's twin eye trials

The same drug in two trials built alike gave a pass and a fail, which shows how far chance alone can move a result.

Seen the same day

Merck's eye drug against Lucentis

Here both drugs went to patients in one trial, so the gap of 9.1 against 11.8 letters is a fair ranking, and it went against the new drug.

The catch

A separate trial still tells you something: when the patients and measures are close and the gap is large, it is a fair hint.

The catch

But a head-to-head trial is slow and costly, so often nobody runs one.

The whole

A doctor choosing a drug, a patient reading a headline and an investor buying shares all meet these numbers side by side.

The whole

None of them was inside those trials, so none of them can see how the patients behind each number differed.

What's really going on

Bristol Myers Squibb needs new drugs because Eliquis and Opdivo, over half its sales, could face US copies in 2028, and on Monday it announced two trial wins without showing a number. [2]

What's really going on

The lung drug's win came only at the lower dose, so for now investors, doctors and rivals are reading a company statement, not the data. [1][2]

Who gains

Two final-stage wins give it drugs it can ask to sell before Eliquis and Opdivo face copies in 2028. [2]

Who pays

Its shares fell about 30% on Bristol Myers' result, because its own drug blocks the same lung signal. [1]

Nobody knows yet

How much admilparant slowed lung decline, and why 120 mg did worse than 60 mg.

Bristol Myers has not released the trial's numbers, and analysts at Leerink and RBC both said they need the detail to judge it. [1][2]

Nobody knows yet

Whether admilparant harms the liver.

The trial's safety watch for liver harm was changed last month, and Monday's statement said the drug was well tolerated without mentioning the liver. [1][2]

Nobody knows yet

How long RYZ101 held off tumour growth, and whether patients lived longer.

Bristol Myers gave no figures from the early look at the results, and the patients are still being followed for survival. [2][3]

Good news

People whose rare gut and pancreas tumours had grown again after radioactive treatment went longer without growth on RYZ101 than on standard care.

The short version

That's the story in short.

The whole story has 13 more parts.

or swipe up for the next storyor scroll on for the next story ↓

The whole story, in 13 parts ↓

Part 1 of 13 · Who else is involved

Part 1 of 13 · Who else is involved

Part 2 of 13

In that disease the lungs slowly scar, and the scarring causes a loss of breathing that cannot be undone. [5]

Part 3 of 13

Over a year, the drug slowed the fall in forced vital capacity, the amount of air a person can blow out in one go, compared with a dummy drug. [1]

Part 4 of 13

Only the 60 mg dose did this clearly.

Part 4 of 13

At 120 mg the effect was too small to rule out chance. [1][2]

Part 5 of 13

Doctors and regulators usually look for a bigger dose to work at least as well, so an analyst at RBC Capital Markets called the result confounding. [1]

Part 6 of 13

Bristol Myers has not shown the numbers yet.

Part 6 of 13

It says it will talk to regulators about asking for approval. [2]

Part 7 of 13

Last month the company changed how the trial watched for liver harm in Europe. [1]

Part 7 of 13

Its statement on Monday said the drug was well tolerated and did not mention the liver. [1][2]

Part 8 of 13

Its shares rose more than 6% before trading opened, then fell to a loss of about 4%. [1]

Part 8 of 13

Contineum Therapeutics, which tests another drug of the same kind, fell about 30%. [1]

Part 9 of 13

Drugs already sold for the disease, such as Ofev and Esbriet, slow the decline, and each has limits. [1][4]

Part 9 of 13

Endeavor BioMedicines says its experimental drug may reverse the scarring. [4]

Part 10 of 13

The same day, Bristol Myers said RYZ101, a radioactive cancer drug, kept tumours from growing for longer than standard treatments in a final-stage trial. [2][3]

Part 11 of 13

The trial was in rare tumours of the gut and pancreas that had grown again after radioactive drugs such as Lutathera, from Novartis. [2][3]

Part 12 of 13

RYZ101 carries actinium-225, which gives off alpha particles, a short-range radiation that breaks the DNA of cancer cells. [3]

Part 13 of 13

Eliquis and Opdivo bring in more than half of Bristol Myers' sales, and both could lose their US protection from cheaper copies in 2028. [2]

Merck's eye drug loses ground in full data

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Merck, a large US drugmaker, showed the full results of its eye drug remigromig at a meeting of eye doctors this weekend. [8]

The drug is for diabetic macular edema, a leak of fluid at the back of the eye in people with diabetes, and Merck paid $1.3 billion up front in 2024 for the company that made it. [8]

Last month Merck said it worked no worse than Lucentis, an older injection. [8] After a year, patients gained 9.1 and 8.7 letters on an eye chart, against 11.8 on Lucentis. [8]

Letters gained on an eye chart after one year, in the same trial. Lucentis, the older drug, did best.

Why it matters

New fragile blood vessels, a diabetes eye complication, appeared in 6.7% and 6.1% of patients on remigromig, against 0.9% on Lucentis. [7][8]

Why it matters

Analysts at BMO said the drug looks weaker and less safe than Lucentis, while Merck says 30% to 40% of these patients are not helped enough today. [8]

How it works

Merck's eye drug against Lucentis

Here both drugs went to patients in one trial, so the gap of 9.1 against 11.8 letters is a fair ranking, and it went against the new drug.

The idea, in story 1: Why two drugs tested in separate trials cannot be ranked by their numbers →

Who pays

It paid $1.3 billion up front for remigromig, and analysts now see limited use for it after the full data. [8]

Nobody knows yet

Whether remigromig's eye complications come from the drug or from diabetes itself.

Merck says the new blood vessels may be the disease getting worse naturally, and it is still running extra analyses. [8]

Tezspire puts 7 in 10 into remission

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Amgen and AstraZeneca, two large drugmakers, said their drug Tezspire worked in a final-stage trial in eosinophilic esophagitis. [7]

That is an immune disease of the food pipe, the tube that carries food to the stomach. [7]

Share of patients in remission after 24 weeks. The 70% is the company's 'nearly 70%'.

Nearly 70% of patients on the highest dose were in remission after 24 weeks, against 3.5% on a dummy drug. [7] Fuller results are due at a medical meeting on Wednesday. [7]

Why it matters

The figure is higher than Dupixent, the only other antibody drug approved for the disease, showed in its own trials. [7]

Why it matters

That comparison is across separate trials, which BioPharma Dive notes can mislead, and today's lesson explains why. [7]

How it works

Tezspire's 70% remission

The figure beats what Dupixent showed, but each number is a gap against its own dummy group, in its own patients, so the step that would rank them, one shared trial, was never taken.

The idea, in story 1: Why two drugs tested in separate trials cannot be ranked by their numbers →

Who gains

A remission figure higher than Dupixent showed in its own trials gives their drug Tezspire a case for a new use, even though the comparison is across trials. [7]

Nobody knows yet

Whether Tezspire really works better than Dupixent for the food-pipe disease.

The two have only been tested in separate trials, which can mislead, and Tezspire's fuller results come out on Wednesday. [7]

Good news

Nearly 7 in 10 people on the highest dose of Tezspire were in remission from an immune disease of the food pipe after 24 weeks.

First drug for Alexander disease approved

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The FDA, the US drug regulator, has approved Zanvastro, the first medicine aimed at the cause of Alexander disease, the University of Wisconsin-Madison announced. [9]

The disease affects fewer than one in a million people and slowly damages the nervous system, harming movement, speech and swallowing. [9]

It is caused by faults in the gene for GFAP, a protein in the brain's support cells, which then builds up in harmful clumps. [9]

Zanvastro, developed with Ionis Pharmaceuticals, cuts how much GFAP cells make. [9]

Why it matters

In a trial of 54 patients, those treated for just over a year walked faster than those who were not. [9]

Why it matters

The drug is injected into the spine every three months, and the approval covers everyone from babies to adults. [9]

Who gains

Zanvastro is the first approved drug that targets the cause, where before doctors could only ease symptoms. [9]

Good news

The US approved Zanvastro, the first drug aimed at the cause of Alexander disease. In its trial, patients treated for just over a year walked faster than those who were not.

A celiac drug protects the gut in an early trial

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First Tracks Biotherapeutics, a US company, said its drug ANB033 protected the gut of people with celiac disease in an early trial. [10]

In celiac disease, eating gluten, a protein in wheat, makes the immune system attack the small intestine. [10]

32 people took the drug or a dummy for four weeks, then ate gluten equal to about two slices of bread a day for two weeks. [10]

The drug beat the dummy on three measures of gut damage, with no serious side effects. [10]

Why it matters

No medicine is approved for celiac disease, so a strict diet is the only treatment. [10]

Why it matters

Argenx and Teva are testing rival drugs of the same family, and First Tracks plans a final-stage trial in 2027. [10][11]

How it works

First Tracks' celiac drug

An analyst says its results compare well with Teva's rival, but the two drugs were tested in different trials on different people, so the ranking rests on the trials as much as the drugs.

The idea, in story 1: Why two drugs tested in separate trials cannot be ranked by their numbers →

Nobody knows yet

Whether First Tracks' celiac drug holds up in more people.

The first group had 32 people, and results from a second group are due early next year. [10]

Good news

A celiac drug protected the gut of people who ate gluten for two weeks in an early trial, for a disease that still has no approved medicine.

Kenya finds no new Ebola cases

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Kenya's health ministry said on Sunday it has found no new Ebola cases since its first patient died in Nairobi on 5 October. [12]

The 40-year-old man had tested positive in Congo, where an Ebola outbreak was declared in May, and then travelled to Kenya. [12] Tests on 293 samples were all negative. [12]

108 of the 122 people on his contact list are in quarantine and have no symptoms. [12]

Why it matters

Congo has recorded 8,978 cases and 4,336 deaths in this outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain, which has no treatment or vaccine. [12]

Why it matters

Africa's public health agency calls Kenya's case imported, not an outbreak. [12]

Nobody knows yet

Whether Kenya's Ebola case stays a single case.

108 of the 122 listed contacts are in quarantine with no symptoms, and Kenya's health ministry still asks people to stay alert. [12]

Good news

Kenya has found no new Ebola cases a week after its first patient died, and all 293 samples it tested were negative.

Roche sets a July 2027 date for an eye drug

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Roche, the Swiss drugmaker, said the FDA has accepted its request to approve vamikibart, with a decision due by July 2027. [13]

The drug is injected into the eye to treat uveitic macular edema, a swelling at the back of the eye caused by inflammation. [13]

Roche ran two final-stage trials designed to be identical, and last year one met its main goal while the other did not. [13]

New one-year data showed lasting gains in sight, and about two-thirds of patients needed no repeat injection after week 16. [13]

Why it matters

About 20% of people with this condition go on to lasting blindness within three years. [13]

Why it matters

Today they are treated with steroids and with drugs used outside their approval, and steroids in the eye bring risks such as glaucoma and cataracts. [13]

A schizophrenia drug from China passes a mid-stage test

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Tortugas Neuroscience, a US start-up, said its schizophrenia drug obuprazine passed a mid-stage trial run in China by Hansoh Pharma, the Chinese company it licensed the drug from. [14]

The trial gave 363 adults recently in hospital with schizophrenia one of five doses, an older drug called aripiprazole, or a dummy. [14]

Every dose cut symptoms more than the dummy after six weeks. [14] The best group improved 16.7 points more than the dummy group on a standard symptom scale. [14]

Why it matters

Slightly fewer people stopped taking obuprazine than stopped the dummy, 2.1% against 2.5%. [14] Tortugas now wants FDA permission to test it in the US. [14]

Why it matters

So far every patient in the trial was in China. [14]

Who gains

Obuprazine, the drug it licensed to Tortugas, passed its mid-stage trial in China, and Tortugas now wants to test it in the US. [14]

$500 billion of drug sales near their patent end

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More than $500 billion of drug sales worldwide could face cheaper copies between 2026 and 2032, forecasts from the data firm Evaluate show. [6]

Drug sales at risk from cheaper copies in two years of the forecast, in billions of dollars.

When a drug's patent ends, rivals can sell cheaper copies of it. [6] The worst single year is 2031, with $158 billion at risk. [6]

In 2028, $99 billion is at risk as Merck's cancer drug Keytruda loses protection. [6]

Why it matters

Drugmakers facing these gaps are buying other companies: Merck has spent $30.9 billion on six deals since the start of 2024, and Eli Lilly $27.2 billion on nine. [6]

Why it matters

Bristol Myers' two trial wins today answer the same pressure on its own best sellers. [2]

Parkinson's cell maker files to sell shares

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Aspen Neuroscience, a San Diego company, filed on 9 October to list its shares on the Nasdaq stock market. [15]

It turns a patient's own skin cells into stem cells, grows them into nerve cells that make dopamine and implants them in the brain. [15]

Parkinson's disease destroys the cells that make dopamine, a chemical the brain needs for smooth movement. [15]

Making one patient's treatment takes about four months, and the therapy is entering its final stage of testing. [15]

Why it matters

Aspen wrote that its cash will not last another year and that there is substantial doubt it can keep operating. [15]

Why it matters

Bambusa Therapeutics, which is testing an antibody drug for eczema, filed for a listing the same day. [16]

Nobody knows yet

Whether Aspen Neuroscience can raise enough money to finish its final trial.

It has not set a share price or size for its listing, and it says it needs substantial further money even if the listing works. [15][16]

Bausch + Lomb's chief leaves suddenly

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Bausch + Lomb, a large eye-care company, said Brent Saunders is leaving as chief executive with immediate effect. [7]

Its board chair, Thomas Appio, who has worked there since 2010, takes over for now. [7] Saunders had run and sold several drug companies before he joined in 2023. [7]

On the same day the company raised its profit forecast for 2026. [7]

Why it matters

An analyst at Leerink Partners called the exit unexpected but said the business is doing well. [7] The company said the board and Saunders mutually agreed on his exit. [7]

A third of Boston's lab space stands empty

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Share of Massachusetts lab and factory space standing empty, from MassBio's figures.

Lab and factory space for biotech companies in Massachusetts was 31.1% empty by mid-2026, eleven times the rate at the end of 2021, figures from the trade group MassBio show. [17]

Builders around Boston, a centre of the biotech industry, put up labs without tenants after the pandemic, expecting demand to keep rising. [17]

Such space grew from 21.5 million square feet in 2015 to more than 60 million by 2023. [17] One 15-storey building in Somerville has stood empty since 2024. [17]

Why it matters

Investment fell while new buildings kept opening. [17] Landlords are now offering the labs to robotics and electronics firms, and one property group calls the slump a reset. [17]

Who gains

With almost a third of lab space empty, landlords are offering them buildings made for labs. [17]

Who pays

Buildings put up after the pandemic sit empty, including a 15-storey tower in Somerville since 2024. [17]

Wales's endometriosis surgery at risk

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Surgeons told Welsh politicians that the specialist endometriosis centres in Wales are at risk and that a national service is needed. [18]

Endometriosis is a painful disease that affects about one in ten women. [18]

Cardiff and Vale health board put its centre on its risk register, because it may fail new rules from the body that accredits such centres. [18]

One patient, Kelly O'Shea, woke from operations to find the surgery had not been done, and paid 20,000 pounds for private treatment. [18]

Why it matters

If centres lose accreditation, women with the most complex cases would be sent to England, at a higher cost to the Welsh health service. [18]

Why it matters

Wales's deputy minister for women's health said the current set-up is not sustainable. [18]

Who pays

They face long waits, cut-short operations, and a risk of being sent to England if centres lose accreditation. [18]

Northern Ireland not ready for its older people

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Northern Ireland's Commissioner for Older People, Siobhan Casey, said its government is planning for a population from a previous era. [19]

The number of people over 65 is projected to rise by almost 45% in 25 years, while the whole population falls slightly. [19]

Pensioners for every 1,000 people of working age in Northern Ireland, now and as projected.

By mid-2049 there would be 366 pensioners for every 1,000 people of working age, up from 269 in 2024. [19]

Northern Ireland's Programme for Government, its main plan, mentions an ageing population only once. [19]

Why it matters

Fewer workers for each pensioner means less tax to pay for health care and pensions, and those are set by the UK government, not Northern Ireland's. [19]

Why it matters

Casey says housing, transport and workplaces will feel it too, not only hospitals. [19]

Who pays

Each 1,000 of them is projected to support 366 pensioners by 2049, up from 269 in 2024. [19]

The truth, across the day

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Why it works on people

The words 'met its main goal' sound like a finished answer, so a short statement moves share prices before anyone outside the company has seen how big the effect was.

That's the whole Biotech day.

14 stories, 19 sources.