Climate, in brief

The Climate Impact Lab, a research group at the University of Chicago, estimates this year's El Nino heat could cause up to 451,000 extra deaths between June and the end of February. [1]

El Nino is a natural warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts weather around the world, and New Scientist calls this one record-breaking. [2]

About 240,000 of those deaths are forecast for September to February. [2] The rest are estimated to have already happened since El Nino began in June. [2]

The lab combined the European weather centre's seasonal forecast with how heat has raised deaths in the past, region by region, across more than 24,000 regions. [1][2]

Land temperatures during this El Nino could run about 1.2C higher than usual, with 44% more extremely hot days than a typical year. [1]

The Sahel, the dry belt of countries along the southern edge of the Sahara, is projected to be hit hardest, with about 66,800 extra deaths. [1]

The lab also projects about 19,300 extra deaths in Indonesia, 15,800 in India and 13,300 in Brazil. [1] New Scientist reports more than 30,000 in Nigeria alone in the next six months. [2]

Heat is most dangerous where it is already hot and people are poor, said co-author Michael Greenstone. [1] Richer places have more air conditioning, reliable water and working hospitals. [1]

Most deaths in the next six months will be in the southern half of the world, where spring and summer are starting. [2] A second wave is expected in the north after February. [2]

The oldest people are most at risk, then babies and children aged four or under. [2]

Christopher Callahan, a scientist at Indiana University, called the results plausible. [2] He said the total depends on the forecast being right, and leaves out El Nino's floods, fires and disease. [2]

The report asks governments for heat warnings, cooling centres, water stations, protection for outdoor workers, and money released before the hottest weeks arrive. [1]

Why it matters. Watch whether the countries named in the report, from Nigeria to India and Brazil, open cooling centres and release money before their hottest weeks, as the authors ask. [1]

New York's attorney general, Letitia James, filed a suit joined by Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont. [5] It seeks to block two Trump administration deals that pay companies to cancel offshore wind farms. [5] California's attorney general, Rob Bonta, sued separately over a project off California's coast. [5] The two deals would give Invenergy, a Chicago energy developer, and Bluepoint Wind $1.4 billion of taxpayer money. [5]

Why it matters. Across the country the Trump administration has promised nearly $4 billion to companies to walk away from projects. [5] James says the lost wind power will push up electricity bills in the states that planned on it. [5]

North Carolina's utility regulator refused on 18 September to let Duke Energy build a 255-megawatt gas turbine at its Smith power site. [6] Duke has the biggest spending plan of any regulated US utility, $103 billion. [6] The regulator called the $584 million price 'staggering' and said the extra demand Duke expects comes mostly from data centres that may never arrive. [6] It also said Duke had not shown how it would keep its promise not to shift data-centre costs onto other customers. [6]

Why it matters. The regulator's own staff had warned that Duke is heading for too little spare power by 2031 and has no quicker option ready. [6] Duke says it is disappointed and is weighing its next steps. [6]

California's governor, Gavin Newsom, signed seven laws on Monday aimed at data centres, the huge buildings of computers that run AI. [7] They require data centres to pay for the grid upgrades and power plants they need, and to carry more of the cost of preventing wildfires. [7] Data centres must also report their power use every month and tell local governments how much water they use. [7][8] An industry group, the Data Center Coalition, warned the laws will push projects to other states. [8]

Why it matters. California has 296 data centres, the third most of any US state, and its household power bills are among the highest in the country. [7] The laws decide in advance who pays when a giant new customer asks for power. [7]

Georgia Power, part of the US utility Southern Company, signed a deal with Google on Monday to pay for upgrades at its Vogtle and Hatch nuclear plants. [9] New turbines, pumps and cooling equipment would let the reactors make about 96 megawatts more electricity from the same plants. [9] Georgia Power says customers who are not part of the deal will not pay for the upgrades. [9] Georgia's Public Service Commission, the state utility regulator, still has to approve it. [9]

Why it matters. Demand from data centres is pushing US utilities to get more out of reactors they already have, which make power day and night without carbon. [9] Georgia Power projects about $900 million in benefits to its customers over the plants' lives. [9]

World biofuel output could rise nearly 70% by 2030 from 2025, a study published on Tuesday found, because governments want home-grown fuel since the Iran war. [10] Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US and the EU have proposed or adopted rules to mix more crop-based fuel into petrol and diesel. [10] If every proposal happens, the land needed for those crops could more than double from 2023. [10] That is an extra 36 million hectares, roughly the size of Germany. [10]

Why it matters. Most biofuels are made from food crops, and sugar and corn prices have already risen about 20% since the war began. [10] The authors warn that one more shock, such as bad weather, could push food prices up sharply. [10]

India's renewable power has grown from about 4 gigawatts a decade ago to 300 gigawatts, 54% of all its power capacity, the BBC reports. [11] Its power lines have not kept up. [11] Full lines caused nearly two-thirds of the clean power India had to switch off in the first three months of 2026, about 300 gigawatt-hours, says Ember, an energy research group. [11] One in four big lines between states is more than a year late. [11]

Why it matters. India now adds about 51 gigawatts of clean power a year, against 10 to 15 when the grid could keep up. [11] Ember calls the gap between plants and wires the biggest risk to India's 2030 target of 500 gigawatts. [11]

A report released on Monday by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany found the world has broken seven of nine planetary boundaries. [12] These are limits that scientists have set for the conditions that keep the planet healthy. [12] The institute's director, Johan Rockstrom, told New York Climate Week the world is very close to crossing thresholds that cannot be undone. [12] Edward Miliband, a British cabinet minister, called clean energy a matter of national security at the same event. [12]

Why it matters. The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, told the same gathering that power-hungry AI is raising pollution from coal, oil and gas. [12] The head of the group that organises Climate Week said AI's effect on the environment is one of its main topics. [12]

Governments will fall well short of protecting 30% of the world's land and seas by 2030, research led by the US group Campaign for Nature found on Wednesday. [13] Nearly 200 countries agreed that goal, called 30 by 30, in 2022. [13] Protection now covers 20% of land and 10% of the sea. [13] Of the ocean under protection plans, only 3.5% is counted as protected in practice, and spending on the sea is $1.8 billion against $16 billion needed. [13]

Why it matters. An official UN progress report is due at next month's nature talks in Yerevan, Armenia. [13] A draft in July said none of the deal's 23 goals will be met without much faster action. [13]

Hurricane Polo grew into a Category 4 storm in the Pacific off Mexico on Monday, with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), and could reach Category 5. [4] It is forecast to run along the coast for days without landing. [4] It brings heavy rain and a risk of floods and landslides to the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. [4] In the Atlantic, no hurricane has formed yet this year, the latest start on record. [4]

Why it matters. AP reports that this year's El Nino is breaking up Atlantic storms before they grow. [4] The same El Nino is behind the heat deaths in the lead story. [1]

Typhoon Dujuan killed five people in Japan and left six missing, Japan's disaster agency said on Tuesday. [3] Oshima, an island south of Tokyo, got 27 inches (about 69cm) of rain in 24 hours, a September record. [3] More than 74,000 people were still told to leave their homes, mostly in Chiba, east of Tokyo. [3] Nearly 400 flights were cancelled at Haneda, Tokyo's busiest airport, on Monday. [3]

Why it matters. The storm delayed Japan's prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, on her way to the UN in New York. [3] The New York Times reports that El Nino has helped make this year's storms stronger. [3]

Only two cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane out of the Gulf, on Monday, down from ten the day before, shipping data showed. [14] Before the Iran war began on 28 February, about 125 large ships a day used it. [14] A crude oil tanker and a gas tanker were hit by projectiles in separate attacks on Sunday and Monday, a shipping security firm said. [14] Nobody has said who fired. [14]

Why it matters. Before the war the strait carried about a fifth of the world's daily oil and liquefied gas. [14] Its near-closure is behind the fuel prices that run through several of today's stories. [10][14]

Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West oil pipeline on Tuesday and could resume exports from Yanbu, its Red Sea port, three sources told Reuters. [15] Drone attacks had forced it to shut the pipeline on 13 September, halting oil loadings at Yanbu. [15] Two of the sources said it was pumping at a low rate for now. [15] Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, did not reply to Reuters. [15]

Why it matters. Oil loaded at Yanbu goes out through the Red Sea, so it does not need the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has almost stopped. [14][15]

Jane Beckering, a US federal judge in Grand Rapids, dismissed Michigan's lawsuit against BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell and the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. [16] Michigan's attorney general, Dana Nessel, had accused them of working together to hold back electric cars and renewable energy. [16] The judge said the link between the claimed plot and the prices Michigan residents paid was too distant. [16] Judges in six other states and Puerto Rico have thrown out similar cases. [16]

Why it matters. The oil companies still face many other lawsuits from US states and cities that want them to pay for climate damage. [16]

Volkswagen, Europe's biggest carmaker, flagged 10 billion euros ($11.5 billion) of one-off costs on 18 September, mostly at its sports-car brand Porsche. [17] It now expects a profit margin of 1% at most this year, down from 4% to 5.5%. [17] It blamed a shrinking market in China and buyers moving faster to battery cars, which earn it less. [17] VW's top executive in China said on Tuesday that China's car market will shrink about 20% this year. [18]

Why it matters. VW has already agreed another 50,000 job cuts and possible factory closures. [17] Its shares fell 5.6% on the warning. [17]

Volkswagen is weighing whether to keep Seat, its Spanish car brand, beyond its current models, Reuters reported. [19] Seat has launched no new model since 2020 and has no electric car planned, while its sister brand Cupra sells three. [19] Seat would be the first long-standing car brand to disappear since the early 2010s. [19] Meanwhile GAC, a Chinese carmaker, launched in France on Monday and plans 12 electric and hybrid models there by 2030. [20]

Why it matters. European, US, Japanese and Korean carmakers sold 12.6 million fewer cars a year in 2025 than in 2019, and Chinese rivals took much of that share. [19] Seat's union leader fears for jobs if the brand goes. [19]

Prices for Chinese solar cells fell for a third week and are about 12% below their late-August peak, the price agency OPIS reported. [21] Buyers abroad had stocked up before new US import rules start on 4 December, and that buying is fading. [21] China made 506 gigawatts of cells from January to August, 14.6% less than a year earlier. [21] Ten big makers of polysilicon, the raw material, reportedly agreed to run at 35% of capacity, but nobody has confirmed it. [21]

Why it matters. Cheaper cells lower the cost of building solar farms everywhere. [21] The reported factory cut shows Chinese makers trying to stop prices falling further. [21]

China Energy Engineering Corp, a state-owned builder, opened a tender to buy 15 gigawatts of solar panels, one of the largest by a Chinese state company this year. [22] It has separate lots for three designs, which will show how much of big projects newer designs can win from the most common type, called TOPCon. [22] In another state tender, back-contact panels, a newer design, cost about 8% more than TOPCon ones. [22]

Why it matters. A buyer this big tells factories which panel designs will sell, at a time when China has more solar factories than buyers. [21][22]

Canada's trade tribunal ended its review of extra import duties on Chinese solar panels and cancelled the 2021 order behind them, pv magazine reported. [23] Canada's border agency has stopped collecting the duties. [23] The tribunal gave no reasons, but under Canadian law it can end a review when local manufacturers do not take part. [23] In January Canada also agreed to let in 49,000 Chinese electric cars a year at a 6.1% tariff instead of 100%. [23]

Why it matters. The US is going the other way, keeping its duties on Chinese solar and extending them this year to cells, wafers and polysilicon. [23] The two neighbours now treat Chinese solar very differently. [23]

Spending on US solar factories since the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, a law that paid for clean energy, will reach $12.2 billion by the end of 2026, Terawatt PV Research estimates. [24] That is more than half of all US solar factory spending since 2001. [24] A record $4.14 billion was spent in 2024, over 60% of it by two companies, First Solar and Qcells. [24]

Why it matters. The report expects new US import rules, which start in December, to bring more factory building. [21][24] Much of the spending so far went to First Solar's factories in Alabama and Louisiana and Qcells' in Georgia. [24]

RMI, a US clean-energy research group, said big grid batteries will keep growing about 30% a year because they cut costs and pay local taxes. [25] Its report found batteries supplied 13% to 19% of California's power in the tightest hours of 2024, saving more than $29 million. [25] But the 30% comes from a 2024 forecast by Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy that now expects big battery building to stall in 2026. [25]

Why it matters. Wood Mackenzie now expects only 8% growth a year to 2031. [25] Analysts blame new US limits on foreign-made grid equipment and tariffs on parts tied to China. [25]

IRENA, the international agency for renewable energy, published advice on how governments' power auctions can cope with supply shocks. [26] Supply problems have raised equipment, shipping and borrowing costs for renewable projects. [26] It suggests adjusting contract prices when costs rise, allowing realistic build times, and requiring local parts only in large, steady markets such as China, India and Turkey. [27] It warns strict local-parts rules in small markets can cause the delays they aim to prevent. [27]

Why it matters. Most new wind and solar is bought through auctions like these. [27] How they share rising costs decides who pays: the builders, the buyers of the power, or taxpayers. [27]

Spain's energy ministry announced a capacity market on 16 September. [28] It pays power plants, batteries and big users for being ready to supply power, or cut their use, when the grid operator asks. [28] New contracts will go only to renewables, storage and demand projects, not to fossil plants. [28] Spain also raised planned spending on its high-voltage grid to 2030 by more than 30%, to over 17 billion euros. [28]

Why it matters. Electricity customers will pay for it. [28] Use at the grid's busiest times, at most 10% of the year, will pay more, to push use into quieter hours. [28]

The group representing New England's governors backed Maine's complaint to FERC, the US federal energy regulator, against a bonus paid to power-line owners. [29] FERC lets these utilities earn an extra 0.5 percentage points of profit for joining a regional grid organisation. [29] Maine now requires them to join by law, so it says the bonus pays for nothing. [29] Maine customers paid about $700,000 of it in 2024. [29]

Why it matters. Connecticut, Maryland and New Jersey passed similar laws this year, as states look for parts of power bills they can remove. [29] The utilities call Maine's law unlawful. [29]

Tesla will run public Megacharging sites for heavy electric trucks at three new Forum Mobility truck depots in California, adding 30 megawatts of charging. [30] Forum's Rancho Dominguez depot already has fleet orders for more than 330 Tesla Semi trucks. [30] Forum also added two Megachargers at its depot in the Port of Long Beach, open since December 2024. [30] Tesla plans to launch the Semi in Europe next year. [30]

Why it matters. Fleet operators have already committed more than 330 trucks to one depot, and that site will also be open to other trucking firms. [30]

Hitachi Energy will build a $528 million factory in Gallman, Mississippi, more than doubling its US output of small and medium power transformers, the equipment that changes the voltage of electricity on the grid. [31] Production starts in 2029, and it will be Hitachi Energy's biggest single US investment. [31] Waiting lists for transformers are slowing grid building as data centres, factories and electric heating raise demand. [31]

Why it matters. Even a new factory takes until 2029 to help, so the shortage of grid equipment runs through most of this decade. [31]

Sudden, long lulls in wind and solar power, called flash energy droughts, will last longer as the climate warms, a study in Nature Climate Change found on 21 September. [32] Under a low-emissions path, their length rises about 26% for wind and 30% for solar. [32] When both fall at once, it rises 156%. [32] About 71% of the world's wind and solar capacity faces more of them. [32]

Why it matters. The authors link these lulls to unmet demand and higher power costs. [32] They say choosing where to build new farms can cut the risk. [32]