Climate, in brief

Hurricane Isaias came ashore near Destin, in Florida's Panhandle, on Friday night with winds of 105 mph, a Category 2 storm. [2][5]

A day earlier it was only a Category 1. Overnight it grew into a Category 3 'major' hurricane with winds of 120 mph. [6][7]

Forecasters call this rapid intensification: top winds rising by at least 35 mph in 24 hours. [8]

It fed on the Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1.5C warmer than normal. [9] A big, deep pool of warm water that broke off a Gulf current gave it extra fuel. [7]

El Nino's high winds had stopped every Atlantic storm this year from growing into a hurricane. [9][8] Isaias formed in a gap of about two days when those winds eased. [9][8]

More than 726,000 homes and businesses in Florida and Alabama had no power early on Saturday. [4] Florida, Alabama and Mississippi all declared emergencies. [2]

Forecasters warned of a storm surge, sea water pushed ashore by the wind, of up to 7 feet along the Alabama-Florida line. [2] Up to 15 inches of rain could fall in places. [6]

Before it arrived, oil companies stopped about 1.3 million barrels a day, roughly 63% of US Gulf of Mexico output. [10] Brent, the world's main oil price, ended the week 2.41% higher at $104.72. [11]

Two refineries in the warning zone, Chevron's at Pascagoula and Vertex's at Saraland, make 2.4% of US fuel. [10] A refinery that shuts takes one to two weeks to restart, even without damage. [10]

Isaias fell to Category 1, with winds of 90 mph, within hours of landfall, and later lost hurricane strength. [3][1] Its rain moves on across Alabama towards the Tennessee Valley. [1]

Florida sent about 5,000 National Guard soldiers, some prisons were emptied, and most flights at Panhandle airports were grounded. [2][4]

Plans far inland changed too: President Trump dropped his trip to the Alabama-Georgia football game in Tuscaloosa. [12] The teams still planned to play. [12]

Why it matters. Watch whether Chevron's Pascagoula refinery keeps running as the storm passes: a shutdown would take one to two weeks to restart even without damage, with US diesel stocks already at their lowest for this time of year since 1982. [10]

Hurricane Simon grew to Category 4 early on Saturday, with winds of 140 mph, as it neared Mexico's Pacific coast. [13] On Friday morning it had been a Category 1 storm with winds of 75 mph. [15] Forecasters expect it to come ashore on Sunday between Manzanillo, Mexico's biggest port, and Puerto Vallarta, a beach city of nearly 300,000 people. [14] Up to 30 inches of rain could fall in places, bringing floods and mudslides. [13] Jalisco state closed schools in 22 coastal towns, and Mexico's navy closed ports to small boats. [13][14]

Why it matters. Simon is the Pacific half of the same weekend as Isaias: warm water in the eastern Pacific has fed three Category 5 storms there this season. [8] Families on the Jalisco and Colima coast face the wind and the rain on Sunday. [14]

The World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather agency, said on Thursday that this year's El Nino should peak in December. [16] It could be among the strongest since at least 1950. [16] El Nino is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific that moves rain and storms around the world. [16] The middle of the Pacific was 2.5C warmer than normal in August, and forecasts point to about 3.7C from October to December. [17] The highest reading before this was 2.6C, in the winter of 2015-16. [17]

Why it matters. Chile's floods come as El Nino gains strength, and the warm, calm eastern Pacific it helped set up has fed storms like Simon. [16][8] After an El Nino fades, the Atlantic often has a busier hurricane year. [8]

Mudslides swept cars through the streets of eastern Santiago, Chile's capital, on Thursday and flooded homes and hospitals. [16] Las Condes, a district east of the city, had 14.4 cm of rain in a few days, about nine times its usual October total. [16] President Jose Antonio Kast declared a state of emergency there. [16] Firefighters rescued or moved more than 1,000 people, and at least six were hurt. [16] The disaster agency closed schools on Friday and put 10 more districts on alert for landslides. [16]

Why it matters. El Nino often brings wetter springs to Chile and the rest of the southern half of the world. [16] Storms earlier in the week had already left nearly 12,000 homes in Santiago without power. [16]

Murat Kurum, Turkey's climate minister, will lead COP31, the UN climate summit in Antalya in November. [18] He told the Guardian that rich countries should spend far more on climate than the 5% of their economies that Nato members promised for defence. [18] But he would not say whether the summit should repeat its 2023 call to move away from fossil fuels. [18] He said the world was already moving. [18] Only 13 national leaders joined Australia's prime minister at the meeting in Fiji that prepared for it. [18]

Why it matters. Small island states such as Tuvalu, mostly about 2 metres above the sea, want that fossil-fuel promise kept. [18] Australia's climate minister, Chris Bowen, said such islands get 0.2% of world climate money for coping with the changes. [18]

The UK Conservative party's new policy booklet says the UK government's climate advisers put the cost of net zero at GBP957bn. [19] Carbon Brief, a climate news site, found the advisers' 2020 figure was GBP478bn, exactly half. [20] Someone appears to have added a spreadsheet's total row to the rows it totals, counting everything twice. [19][20] The advisers, the Climate Change Committee, now put the cost at about GBP108bn, mostly because electric cars got cheaper. [20] The party uses the figure to back dropping its 2050 net zero target. [19]

Why it matters. The booklet was written for the party's conference under its leader, Kemi Badenoch. [19] The same doubled number had appeared before in a report by the Institute of Economic Affairs, a think tank, and in the Spectator magazine. [19]

France and Germany have agreed to back a weaker EU rule on car pollution, Electrek reported, citing Clean Energy Wire, a German news service. [21] New cars would have to cut carbon by 80% by 2035, instead of the 90% now set. [21] The steps on the way there would be eased too. [21] The two countries plan to present the idea on 15 October, and six other EU countries oppose weakening the rules. [21] It would be the third loosening in two years. [21]

Why it matters. A weaker target lets European carmakers keep selling more petrol cars for longer. [21] It comes as Chinese electric cars win a growing share of European sales. [21]

China has agreed to halve its exports of hybrid cars to the European Union, the EU's trade chief, Maros Sefcovic, said on Friday. [22] Hybrids run on both petrol and electricity, and the EU had asked China to send fewer of them. [22] The deal came after two days of talks in Beijing with China's commerce minister, Wang Wentao. [22] The EU still has to approve it. [22] China also promised export licences for rare earths and magnets. [22]

Why it matters. The EU's widening trade gap with China has been a point of fighting, and Germany and France had pushed for tougher trade tools. [22] The two sides meet again in March. [22]

US power and gas companies owned by investors asked regulators for a record $4.5bn in price rises in July to September, more than double a year earlier. [23] That takes this year's requests to $23.1bn, according to PowerLines, a group that campaigns on bills. [23] Home electricity prices rose about 7.3% in the year to April. [23] Households heating with oil face bills 31.3% higher this winter, and gas users 5.8% higher. [23]

Why it matters. The money pays for new plants and wires as demand grows, including from data centres. [23] Energy bills have become a big issue before next month's US elections. [23]

K-Electric, which supplies power to Karachi, Pakistan's biggest city, said on Friday it may cut power at night. [24] Gas shipped by sea as liquid, called LNG, is arriving late, and power plants across Pakistan run on it. [24] The company called the cuts an extreme, last-resort step. [24] Pakistan has been short of fuel since fighting disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. [24] Its government has not yet settled how much gas to import for December to February. [24]

Why it matters. Evening and night are the busiest hours for power, so cuts would fall on families after dark. [24] Pakistan's government already apologised in August for cuts caused by late gas cargoes. [24]

European countries paid about EUR7.88bn for liquid gas from Russia's Yamal project in the Arctic from January to September, the campaign group Urgewald found. [25] A record 12.18 million tonnes reached European ports, 9.5% more than a year earlier. [25] France took nearly three-quarters of September's deliveries, through Dunkirk and Montoir. [25] The EU banned new Russian gas contracts this year and bans all Russian LNG from 1 January 2027. [25]

Why it matters. Europe's gas stores are at a record low, and the trade shows how hard the promised phase-out is to carry through. [25] Urgewald built its count from ship-tracking data by Kpler, a market data firm. [25]

Brazil's government on Friday removed federal taxes on petrol for 30 days, the same day older cuts ran out. [26] It added a subsidy of 1.40 reais (about $0.28) a litre for diesel importers, on top of 2.12 reais already paid. [26] The runoff vote between President Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president, is on 25 October. [26] Brazil's government says money from its oil assets will pay for the tax cuts. [26]

Why it matters. Fuel prices are a sensitive issue for Brazilian voters, and Bolsonaro won about 2 million more votes than Lula in the first round. [26] Drivers pay less this month, and Brazil's public purse pays for the cut out of oil income. [26]

Nigeria's finance minister, Taiwo Oyedele, announced a 30-day discount on petrol at pumps run by NNPC, the state oil company. [27][28] Bus and taxi operators come first. [27] Petrol costs about 1,400 naira a litre, up from 830 before the Iran war. [27] Oyedele said it is not a subsidy, only petrol sold at cost, but did not say how much a litre now costs. [27] President Bola Tinubu ended a costly fuel subsidy in 2023 and faces an election in January. [27][28]

Why it matters. The old subsidy cost $10bn in 2022, more than Nigeria spent on health and education together. [28] Analysts widely rejected the claim that the discount is not a subsidy. [28]

China has approved about 3.7 million tonnes of diesel, petrol and jet fuel exports for October, traders told Reuters. [29] Exports had stopped briefly during the Golden Week holiday. [29] China first curbed fuel exports in March to keep enough at home after the Iran war cut crude supplies. [29] It eased the curbs from July to September, and now checks shipments month by month. [29]

Why it matters. Extra Chinese diesel and jet fuel helps a world market that is short of both. [29] Month-by-month checks mean buyers cannot count on it beyond October. [29]

Hiring a large tanker to carry crude from the US to Asia now costs up to $77m, against under $10m last year, Semafor reported. [30] About 10 million barrels a day still leave the Strait of Hormuz despite attacks on ships. [30] But the biggest tankers wait outside the strait while smaller ships bring the oil out to them. [30] All that waiting ties up ships and has created a shortage of tankers. [30]

Why it matters. It widens the gap between the oil price on traders' screens and what a refiner pays to get real barrels delivered. [30] Vitol, a big oil trader, warned of $200 a barrel if Gulf exports fall again. [30]

Iraq expects to start moving crude oil by lorry to Syria's Mediterranean coast from mid-October, the head of Syria's state oil company said. [31] Iraq's usual route, by tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, has been disrupted since the Iran war began in February. [31] Since April, at least 2.1 million tonnes of Iraqi fuel oil have gone by lorry to Syria's port of Baniyas. [31] Oil pays for at least 90% of the Iraqi government's income. [31]

Why it matters. Iraq exported about 3.3 million barrels a day before the war. [31] Syria has become its main back-up export route since April. [31]

Missouri's governor, Mike Kehoe, on Friday let every driver use dyed red diesel on the state's roads. [33] Red diesel is the same fuel as road diesel, but untaxed, because it is meant for tractors. [32] President Trump told the US tax agency on Monday to stop fining people who use it on roads. [32] California's governor, Gavin Newsom, refused to follow, though diesel there costs $8.36 a gallon on average. [32] California's farm lobby says the change, with a state tax cut, would save farmers about 73 cents a gallon. [32]

Why it matters. Newsom's office said the order adds no diesel and only puts off a tax bill that may come due later. [32] So the same truck's fuel bill now depends on which state it fills up in. [32][33]

Holtec International has asked the US nuclear regulator, the NRC, to approve a plan to lift out a fuel bundle that tipped over inside its Palisades reactor in Michigan. [34] It tipped while fuel was being loaded on 30 August, and the restart has been on hold since. [34] No radiation escaped. [34] The NRC says the bundle is badly bent, and Holtec says it should straighten inside a protective canister. [34] Palisades closed in 2022, and Holtec bought it to restart it. [34]

Why it matters. A campaign group, Don't Waste Michigan, says the fuel could be out of water for up to 133 hours during the lift. [34] The NRC has not said whether it will approve the plan. [34]

PJM, which runs the power grid across much of the eastern US, approved the first three projects on its new fast track on Thursday. [35] Engie, a French energy company, will build two big batteries in Pennsylvania and Ohio, together nearly 1.7 gigawatts. [35] LS Power will add 455 megawatts to its Hunterstown gas plant in Pennsylvania. [35] All three should run by mid-2029. [35] The fast track takes up to 10 large projects a year that can start within three years. [35]

Why it matters. PJM has had little new power coming online while data centres push demand up, and that has raised bills in parts of its region. [35]

Australia became the first country to sign the Global Rooftop Solar Declaration, at the meeting in Fiji ahead of COP31. [36] The declaration aims to double the number of homes with rooftop solar by 2030, about 150 million new systems. [36] It asks governments to cut red tape, offer cheap loans, upgrade grids and train installers. [36] About 35% of Australian houses already have rooftop solar, said Chris Bowen, its climate minister. [36]

Why it matters. Solar groups now want other countries to sign before COP31 in November. [36] They say home solar shields households from swings in fuel prices. [36]

Austria opened its last solar and battery grant round of the year on Thursday afternoon. [37] About 43,300 applications came in within 10 minutes, against 24,900 in the summer round. [37] Grants go first come, first served, in three windows a year. [37] Austria's government now plans to take applications all year from 2027, after the panels are fitted, with a bonus for adding a battery. [37]

Why it matters. Elisabeth Zehetner, the energy state secretary, said people need to plan rather than race against the clock. [37] The battery bonus favours homes that add a battery to their solar panels. [37]

US heat pump shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026 and are on track to match or beat their best year, the Building Decarbonization Coalition reported. [38] A heat pump heats and cools a home with electricity and can replace a gas furnace. [38] The federal tax credit, worth up to $2,000, ended at the end of 2025, seven years early. [38] Lucas Davis, a Berkeley economist, suspects most buyers never knew about it. [38]

Why it matters. Earlier research found heat pump buying is driven by climate, place and electricity prices. [38] Rooftop solar and electric cars have struggled more since their own credits ended. [38]

More than 70% of US solar factory plans that need spending in 2027 have no money behind them or have stalled, a PV Magazine analysis finds. [39] Spending on US solar factories peaked at almost $4bn in 2024 and is heading for about $3bn this year. [39] Separately, a rise in the US minimum price for imported polysilicon, the raw material for panels, may slip into early 2027. [40]

Why it matters. That minimum price was meant to protect US factories, so a delay leaves them facing cheaper imports for longer. [40] Tesla's plans to make its own panels on a huge scale could change the picture. [39]

ContourGlobal started building Project Sterling, a 450-megawatt solar farm with batteries in Mohave County, Arizona, on 6 October. [41] Tesla has agreed to buy about 90% of its power, roughly 1 terawatt-hour a year. [41] The batteries store about 1.4 gigawatt-hours, enough to run at full power for four hours. [41] With them, the plant can supply power for up to 16 hours a day from 2028. [41]