Climate, in brief

Copernicus, the EU's climate monitoring service, said on Monday that the sea in the Pacific's main El Nino patch averaged 29.70C in September. [1][2] That beat the peaks of the three biggest El Ninos on record, in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. [1]

El Nino is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific that comes every two to seven years and shifts winds and rain around the world. [1]

An El Nino is declared when the sea in one patch on the equator runs 0.5C above its normal. [3] New Scientist reported it 3.4C above normal in early October. [3]

Japan's national weather agency said on Friday that El Nino had reached its strongest intensity on record, about 4C above normal. [1][2]

Copernicus was more careful. It told AFP, the French news agency, that it cannot yet say this is the strongest El Nino ever. [1]

Its reason: the whole tropical ocean has warmed, and that makes recent El Ninos look bigger than old ones. [1] Copernicus's new index takes that warming out first, and on it this El Nino is not yet the strongest. [1]

The world's seas averaged a record 21.05C in September, above the 20.92C set in September 2023. [1][2]

The air over the whole planet had its second-hottest September, 1.63C warmer than the average for 1850-1900, before coal and oil were burned on a large scale. [1][2]

Copernicus's director, Carlo Buontempo, said the world is in a new run of months above 1.5C of warming, and the El Nino will probably keep it going into 2027. [1]

El Nino's high winds kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes until Isaias formed this month, the latest first Atlantic hurricane since 1914. [33] In the eastern Pacific it weakens those winds, which has helped storms such as Hurricane Simon grow. [6]

Australia has just had its second-hottest September on record as El Nino strengthened. [5]

Forecasters expect heavy rain and floods in southern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia this autumn and winter, and the lowest rainfall in 75 years in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. [4] The UN has raised only about a third of the money for its El Nino plans in Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan. [4]

Why it matters. Watch Copernicus's next monthly reports, since the El Nino has not peaked: if its warming-adjusted index also passes the old peaks, the strongest-ever claim will hold on both measures. [1]

Hurricane Simon reached 155 mph winds early on Sunday, just below the top category, Category 5. [8] It then shifted track and was forecast to pass about 15 km off the coast of Jalisco state instead of coming ashore. [6] It barely moved, at about 10 kph, so it can drop rain on the same places for longer. [6] Up to 76 cm of rain was possible in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, and 28 municipalities were under the highest alert. [9] The US hurricane centre expected it to stay close to the coast on Monday. [37]

Why it matters. Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, told coastal residents to stay sheltered until officials say the danger is over. [37] Steep hillsides face floods and mudslides even if the eye never comes ashore, because the storm's rain bands still reach land. [8][6]

Three big groups in the European Parliament, the centre-left Socialists, the centrist Renew group and the Greens, filed changes last week to keep the EU's carbon market strict. [10] That market caps the carbon that power plants, steelworks and chemical factories may emit, through permits whose number shrinks each year. [10] On today's path the permits run out around 2039 or 2040. [10] The lawmaker leading the work, Germany's Peter Liese of the centre-right EPP, backs pushing that date into the 2040s. [10]

Why it matters. If the three groups hold firm, the EPP could pass its plan with far-right votes, as it did on an environmental reporting law in 2025. [10] The outcome sets how fast Europe's power plants and heavy industry must cut their carbon. [10]

Police counted 45,000 people marching through Brussels, Belgium's capital, on Sunday to demand stronger climate action from EU leaders; the organisers said about 60,000. [11] Belgium saw a sharp rise in deaths during this summer's heatwaves, and wildfires burned in the High Fens, one of its most important nature reserves. [11] The Climate Coalition, which organised the march, wants fossil fuel subsidies phased out and the fossil fuel industry taxed. [11]

Why it matters. The march came a month before COP31, the UN climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, where hopes for a breakthrough are low. [11] Inside the European Parliament, the biggest group already backs slowing the EU's carbon market. [10]

Documents suggest New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, met only one outside group before it reopened gas exploration in April: Australian Energy Producers, the oil and gas industry's lobby. [12] The meeting was in February, and the records came out under freedom of information law. [12] The decision opened two areas in the far west, the Bancannia and Pondie Range troughs, to exploration for the first time since a 2014 freeze. [12]

Why it matters. Lock the Gate, the campaign group that asked for the records, says the decision blindsided communities, including the Barkandji people, who won native title over 128,000 square km there in 2015. [12] Farmers want answers on how groundwater will be protected. [12]

A total fire ban covered greater Sydney and the Hunter region on Monday, with 37C forecast in the city's west. [5] That would be 10 or 11 degrees above the October average, the weather bureau said, and the city's hottest day since February. [5] Thunderstorms were expected to bring little rain, so dry lightning could start fires. [5] Outdoor fires, barbecues that burn wood or coal, and welding outdoors were banned. [5]

Why it matters. The heat came after Australia's second-hottest September on record, and a bureau forecaster expects El Nino to bring many hot days ahead. [5] The state's fire service says it did more planned burning of dry undergrowth this year than in earlier years. [5]

Eight orangutans, three mothers, their three daughters and two adult males, were released into a reserve in western Borneo on Friday. [7] They were among 46 that Indonesian authorities and International Animal Rescue, a charity, rescued from wildfires in August and September. [7][14] The fires, made worse this year by El Nino, came within a few hundred metres of the charity's rescue centre. [14] More than 270 wild animals in Kalimantan, Indonesia's part of Borneo, have been rescued or moved. [13]

Why it matters. Orangutans are critically endangered: about 104,000 remain on Borneo and Sumatra, down from over 230,000 a century ago. [7] The reserve was chosen because it has food and water and links to other forest. [7]

Residents of West Kalimantan, a province on Borneo, accuse Indonesia's government of negligence over forest fires that have burned for more than three months. [15] Hearings in their case began last week. [15] It names 27 people and agencies, including Indonesia's president and vice president. [15] Their lawyer says children in the smoke-hit areas have not been able to go to school for two months. [15] Water shortages have slowed firefighting, and Japan has sent help. [15]

Why it matters. The haze has made people ill in neighbouring countries too. [15] A local Indigenous leader says the aim is to make the state stop the fires coming back each year, not to blame it. [15]

Natural Resources Wales, the Welsh government's environment body, told people this weekend to prepare for flooding this autumn, as long-range forecasts point to wetter, windier weather than usual. [16] One in seven properties in Wales is at risk of flooding, more than 274,500 homes and businesses. [16] Only 27% of those who can get flood warnings by phone or email have signed up. [16]

Why it matters. Towns such as Monmouth, flooded in November 2025, are still recovering. [16] Friends of the Earth, an environmental group, says El Nino is expected to bring Britain a wetter, stormier winter. [32]

The red diesel that runs British farm machines has almost doubled in price since the Iran war began in late February, and most fertiliser and animal feed costs about 20% more. [17] England had its worst recorded cereals harvest after the UK's hottest summer on record. [17] Britain grows about 60% of the food it eats. [17] Parliament's public accounts committee, which checks government spending, starts hearings on Monday on how safe the food supply is. [17]

Why it matters. Jamie Burrows, who chairs the crops board at the National Farmers' Union, says some farms will not make it. [17] Arable farmers are ploughing now for next year's crop, so they pay for the dearer fuel and fertiliser before any harvest comes in. [17]

Inside Climate News and Columbia Journalism Investigations counted about 540 proposed lithium mines worldwide, with most new US ones in the dry Southwest. [18] In California's Imperial County, officials have approved two mines that would take lithium from the brine under the Salton Sea, a lake. [18] A recent study found most lithium mining areas will not have enough water for the industry by mid-century. [18] In Chile's Atacama, brine holding nearly a quarter of the world's lithium sits under a salt flat. [19]

Why it matters. Lithium goes into the batteries of electric cars. [18] In Imperial County, landowners with century-old water rights stand to profit, while many neighbours struggle to pay for clean drinking water. [18]

Nearly half the oil firms working mostly in the Permian Basin, the heart of US shale oil across West Texas and New Mexico, say theft has hit them, a Dallas Fed survey found. [20] The Dallas Fed is the US central bank's branch in Dallas. [20] US crude is up 60% this year, and 47% of executives said the most common theft was organised. [20] One Texas sheriff said in May that 1,000 to 1,500 barrels are reported stolen in his county each month. [20]

Why it matters. The jump in oil prices since the Iran war began has drawn in more thieves, and more of them are professionals. [20] Most firms still said the losses were small. [20]

Some 380 oil and gas wells and 11 wastewater disposal wells sit within half a mile of the Pecos River in New Mexico, Grist reported. [21] In New Mexico more than three barrels of salty, toxic wastewater come up for every barrel of oil. [21] State rules ban using that water outside the oilfield, and an oilfield watchdog says the industry wants to treat it and put it in the river. [21] The state expects 25% to 30% less river water by 2070. [21]

Why it matters. Farms, ranches and endangered animals such as the Texas hornshell mussel all depend on the same shrinking river. [21] In July the US Interior Department stopped counting habitat destruction as harm to endangered species. [21]

Scientists from Spain's national research council measured methane coming off the guano, or droppings, in two chinstrap penguin colonies on Deception Island in Antarctica. [22] Methane is a greenhouse gas that traps more heat than carbon dioxide. [22] Their study puts the penguins' guano at about 490,000 tonnes of methane a year. [22] Counting all Antarctic land the birds use, it could be around 7 million tonnes, the same scale as estimates for termites. [22]

Why it matters. The authors say this natural source should be added to the world's methane counts. [22] The larger figure is scaled up from measurements at two colonies, not measured directly. [22]

Scientists from the Technical University of Munich warn that 250,000 to 400,000 cubic metres of rock could fall from the Hochvogel, a 2,592 m peak on the German-Austrian border. [23] About 2,000 cubic metres broke away in June. [23] A crack in the summit, once shoulder-width, is now several metres wide, and sensors measured movement of up to 5 mm a week this spring. [23]

Why it matters. The team links faster movement to heavy rain, thunderstorms and snowmelt, and says climate change is making thunderstorms more frequent and intense. [23] More than 30 sensors now watch the summit, and at similar sites the warning signs come only days or hours ahead. [23]

The government of Somaliland, a self-declared state in northern Somalia, warned on Sunday of unusually heavy rain and possible flash floods in towns including Berbera, Borama and Saylac. [28] Its information minister told people to keep away from seasonal rivers and drainage channels. [28] He told electricity companies to put staff on alert to prevent deaths from electrical accidents. [28]

Why it matters. Forecasters expect El Nino to bring heavy rain and flash floods to Somalia, Kenya and southern Ethiopia this autumn. [4] Floods in eastern Africa killed about 700 people in the 2023 El Nino. [4]

The Budhi Gandaki river in Nepal's Gorkha district flooded on Sunday and swept away houses and bridges. [31][35] AFP reported 45 houses lost and three hydropower projects damaged. [35] The water rose from 2 m to nearly 8.5 m in a couple of hours at one point, and five people are missing. [31] It came two months after floods near the border with Tibet killed more than 1,400 people. [31][36]

Why it matters. The disaster agency's chief says a landslide blocked the river and then burst, but the BBC reports some locals saw an ice avalanche upstream. [35][31] Nepal's official river gauge there was swept away, so its data stopped. [31]

Lagos, Nigeria's biggest city, plans to raise its power supply from under 1,000 megawatts to over 3,000 by March 2027, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu said. [24] The extra power would come from the national grid, private power plants and floating power barges. [24] Since late 2024 Lagos has regulated its own electricity market. [24] About 42,000 of 50,000 planned solar streetlights are up. [24]

Why it matters. The governor said the target depends on steady gas for power plants and more electricity meters. [24] The state also plans to upgrade its substations and local wires. [24]

Volkswagen's chief, Oliver Blume, backed EU 'Made in Europe' rules that would steer subsidies and public purchases to products made mostly in the EU. [30] President Emmanuel Macron makes his last visit to the Paris Motor Show as France's president on Monday. [29] France registered 331,000 new electric cars in 2025 but built 216,000, and only 26% of those sold were made there. [29] Citroen showed an electric 2CV it says will sell for 15,000 euros in 2028. [34]

Why it matters. Volkswagen, among the carmakers hit hardest by cheaper Chinese rivals, plans to cut as many as 100,000 jobs. [30] Blume named high energy costs among the pressures on Europe's carmakers. [30]

Groupe Bellemare, a Canadian minerals firm, says it spent under $54,000 on electricity for about 15,000 hours of work by battery-powered heavy machines. [25] The diesel machines they replaced would have burned an estimated $423,000 of fuel in the same time, an 87% saving. [25] The firm ran the three-year test with a Quebec vehicle research institute, using power from Hydro-Quebec, the province's utility. [25]

Why it matters. Electric machines cost more to buy, and the fuel saving is what pays that back. [25] The figures come from three years on a working site, not a lab test. [25]

EV Realty, a company that builds charging sites for lorries, bought land in California's Inland Empire for its next charging hub. [26] The company calls the area the West Coast's largest warehouse district, and it serves the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. [26] BYD, Volvo and Tesla are bringing new electric lorries to market. [26]

Why it matters. Record diesel prices are pushing more freight firms toward electric lorries, Electrek reports. [26] Those lorries need charging yards built for big rigs, with wide turning space and bays they can drive straight through. [26]

Surrey County Council in England planted about 885,000 trees between 2021 and 2026, beating its target of 600,000. [27] It planted 116,359 in the last year alone and aims for 1.2 million by 2030. [27] It also says it has cut its own carbon emissions by about 60%, and 1,438 low-income homes got insulation, solar or low-carbon heating. [27]

Why it matters. A neighbouring council, Elmbridge, says many new trees die within a year without care, and wants survival counted, not just planting. [27]